Center fielder Mallex Smith was one of the majors’ breakout players in 2018, a year he spent with the Rays, but he was unable to build on that last season as a member of the Mariners. The two teams made a notable swap involving Smith heading into last season, though neither club has gotten much major league value out of it thus far. Smith fell flat in 2019, as did the Rays’ headlining acquisition, catcher Mike Zunino.
Just two years ago, Smith was a .296/.367/.406 hitter who, despite totaling only two home runs, posted an impressive 3.5 fWAR across 544 plate appearances. The Mariners were banking on Smith logging similar production when they acquired him, but it wasn’t to be last season. While the speedy Smith did steal a career-high 46 bases after swiping 40 bags in the prior year, his numbers with the bat cratered. He ended up with a .227/.300/.335 line over 566 trips to the plate, and even received a demotion to the minors early in the season. All said, Smith’s MLB output amounted to a nonthreatening 74 wRC+ (down from 118 in the prior year) and a replacement-level fWAR of 0.0.
With the Mariners still unlikely to contend in 2020, and with Smith still under cheap control (he’s not scheduled to become a free agent until after 2022), they can afford to take a patient approach with him. The question for now is whether there’s any hope for Smith to turn into a valuable M’s contributor. Based on what he did last season, it’s hard to be optimistic.
Compared to 2018, Smith’s strikeout rate climbed by almost 7 percent, his soft contact rate jumped by nearly 6 percent, his line drive rate fell by 6 percent and his fly ball rate increased by about 5 percent. Smith’s skill set indicates he should be hitting as few fly balls as possible because his power is just about nonexistent. With that in mind, it’s no surprise he was a Statcast disaster at the plate last year. Smith finished below the league’s fifth percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average.
Smith may have been the worst hitter in the game last year – a far cry from his 2018 effort – but what of his defense? Well, it was a mixed bag. Smith earned good grades in terms of Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating before 2019, but he fell off a cliff in both categories last year (minus-13 DRS, minus-9.5 UZR). On the other hand, Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric was high on Smith, giving him a plus-10 mark that ranked eighth among 133 qualified outfielders.
Even if we take OAA’s word for it, and even if we consider Smith’s elite speed, it looks highly questionable whether he’ll hit enough to turn back into a valuable contributor. Smith’s still just 26, so it’s too soon to give up on him, but this season (if it happens) could wind up as a make-or-break year for him.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
He will be the next Denard Span
Span wasn’t that fast
Span had a few seasons where he could run pretty well. Had more gap power than smith but overall good comparison
They’re both left handed hitting center fielders. Pretty lazy comparison if you ask me.
Dude is Omar Moreno reborn. Problem is? Seems those types of players no longer of use in today’s game. lack of 3/4 NL stadiums with phony grass for groundballs to get thru the infield, swings down (rightfully so) at every pitch, limiting most all gap power.
I really doubt this type, or Bonifacio, hamilton ever becomes a major factor ina lineup again.. Unless the majority of stadiums return to phony grass like most NL cookie cutter’s once had a few decades back.
More like “Dude’s 2019 at the plate is like Omar Moreno’s entire career”.
Even if Mallex never repeats his 2018, he’ll never be like Moreno. Moreno had an “a pretty good” defensive rep and was generally just a very bad hitter for the era (career wRC+ of 78 right pretty much equal to Mallex’s 74 in 2019).
Mallex, however, had been a below average CF in ratings and reputation (as evidenced by his nearly even split CF-COF time) in 2017 and 2018. In additon, in his ‘Omar Moreno-like’ 2019, he was not only a black hole at the plate, he was, as discussed in the article, one in the field, as well. If he continues his 2019, he’ll be out of a starting job really, really quick (even in the can-afford-to-be-a-bit-patient Mariners) — especially at the rate Kelenic has been rocketing through the system. The same would have been true if Moreno was a bad CF.
I was thinking billy Hamilton
Billy Hamilton would kill to have a .300 obp.
I’d say a mix between Spans offense and Hamiltons speed.
Which Span? The 95-ish wRC+ Span from 2010-2013? Or the ~110 wRC+ Span from 2014-2018?
And how come MLBTR has not recognized the death of Jim Frey? CUBS Legend!
Is there some bad blood between MLBTR and Jim Frey?
Why the wait?
Hit left a hitter friendly division to one of those most less hitter friendly division.
Tropicana is historically well-known for itself being pitcher-friendly, however. In addition, Safeco, as destructive as it is to RHH, is slightly positive to LHH and oppo-hitting RHB (which just about every successful RHH for the Mariners has been the last 20 years).
Lastly, those factors only come into play once the ball is… put into play as non-weak (ie: weak groundout; popups). Most of Mallex’s struggles came as a direct result of him putting the ball into play much less and doing so weakly more often when he did. That’s not going to be the reult of park factors.
increased his SB% by a solid ammount at least
Gary Pettis with out the defense
He needs to follow Willie Mays Hayes’ example.
OBP is still a healthy amount above his average. The SLG fell the same amount as his AVG, not surprising considering his lack of power. He just needs to stop hitting fly balls. Ignore the whole “launch angle” noise.
….Yep.
was he though? i cant imagine someone like him trying that, or a choach telling him to swing for the fences.
Perhaps a choach was telling Mallex to drive the baseball rather than use the Wade Boggs/Tony Gwynn/Willie Hayes approach. Or a coach told him that.
Black Rays Magic!
I didnt watch the mariners, but he probably regressed defensively because he was playing center instead of primarily in the corner as he did in TB
1. He wasn’t “primarily in the corner” in TB. His total IP by OF position, there:
LF: 364
CF: 973
RF: 406
As can be easily determined, he spent slightly more time in CF (~1000) than both corners combined (~800).
He was also simply much worse both in CF (average-ish with the Rays) and COF for the M’s than he had been with the Rays. His time in the corners relative to CF was indeed lower with the Mariners, though.
Smith is terrible defensively. Frankly, being Afro American and speedy doesn’t make you Billy Hamilton. He’s really awful, especially in CF. And really can’t hit a lick.
Keith Law (isn’t right all the time, but had it right this time) called the trade a “backup for a backup”. Zunnino’s more expensive, but the Rays were desperate for a catcher. And Jake Fraley ( a bit of a nutcase, but a useful backup OF) is likely the most impactful part of the trade. When a backup OF is the impactful part of a trade, it’s not a very good one…at least the Mariners dumped some salary.
Believe it or not, a huge part of the issue with his defensive struggles early wasn’t just because of his elbow, but because of his glove as well. Local media reported on that (he had help addressing that issue from former Mariner, Mike Cameron)..
If the elbow issues are behind him, a rebound at the plate wouldn’t be a stretch either.
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Mallex Smith can’t hit his way out of a paper bag. The Mariners need to do like they did in 1989 with the Kid and put Kelenic in CF when play resumes.
You think Seattle should start the service clock early on a player who has just 92 PA’s in AA when they’re still a couple of years out from contention?
Jr. was ready when he was promoted. As talented as Jarred is, he still needs more minor-league seasoning.
Excellent point Stevil. Kelenic is definitely on a fast track, but I think the M’s ought to wait another year before making him the regular. No need to rush things.
Blue jay fans would love to have Smith as a CF over our current options. Guys got serious potential at least
Meh they already got a lot of no bat no defense guys who can play CF but like you said he does have a bit of potential I guess.
There are some dead weight for dead weight trade options for both teams. Wouldn’t mind seeing Biggio move to CF now, have Panik or Shaw at 2B and make a decision on either Alford or Fisher. Then assess after a few months. If Espinal plays well in the minors he can step in at 2B.
It’s weird that anyone would suggest Smith was the worst hitter in the game. Despite his struggles, he still led the league in stolen bases and his non-threatening wRC+ of 74 was 29 points higher than the player he was traded for, Mike Zunino, at just 45. Zunino was dead last in all of baseball among hitters with 250 or more PA’s. Dead last in OPS as well.
Zunino struck out 33.9% of the time. He slashed .165/.232/.312, which was worse than Smith’s. Though RBIs aren’t a great way to judge hitters, Zunino had fewer than Smith. in that department as well.
Smith wasn’t good last season. But there were dozens of hitters that were worse. Smith isn’t likely in the long-term plans for Seattle (and probably never was), but he can bridge the gap until Kelenic arrives.
Another in a curiously long line of guys that come to the Mariners and tank offensively. It’s really remarkable, The exceptions like Nelson Cruz are rare.
I think it had far more to do with poor management following Gillick’s departure. Some players were victims of Safeco’s left-center dead zone, but there were a number of players who hit just fine before the Bavasi and Jack Z eras. Olerud, Boone, Cano, Ichiro, Wilson, Cameron, etc.
Seattle’s offense is terrible right now, but that’s to be expected during a rebuild. Still, guys like Haniger and Encarnacion were brought in and hit just fine. Narvaez, Murphy, Nola were good last season as well.
Most of the misses under Dipoto were with stop-gaps or role players. Didn’t have the dough to chase top-tier talent, but it will be fun to see what happens over the next two offseasons.
90% of the hitters who’ve come to Safeco and ‘tanked’ were either already bad or on the brink of age-related collapse. In one case, it was a guy coming off a mega-fluke season just before hitting FA. Thus was the Lincoln-Armstrong GM’d-but-not-officially-GM’d Mariners.
Cirllo was turning 33
Aurila 33
Spiezio 32
Figgins had 3 of the 7 seasons (and 2 of the 4 just) prior to his first with the M’s right in the same realm of that season. Oh… and he was turning 32
The only player who came to the Mariners that “tanked” and it couldn’t be connected to age or pre-existent crappy-ness was Adrian Beltre. And he’s just an enigma. It wasn’t Safeco, alone, that hurt him. He was better in there than all of his pre-2004 Dodger years. 2004 always just looked like a mega-fluke until he left the Mariners. Perhaps he had some special cream in that 2004 season that he didn’t get out again until after he… literally… busted a *ahem* in that last Seattle season, but that wouldn’t make much sense to me. Why would he wait on something like that when his image and ego were constantly taking a beating without it Just only because he was scared of testing hot… for years until he wasn’t…?
I like the Mariners, how far away are they from competing for the AL West?
BWB- Dipoto and the Mainers FO have circled the 2021 season where the M’s will be competitive. Personally it’s hard for me to see us being competitive in the West so soon because it’s just so bloody hard to make the playoffs building a team from within.
Is it possible they could compete in 21’? There’s a small chance, sure! IMO only if they get really lucky by missing the injury bug, by having the majority of their prospects reach their potential and spending big $$ to compliment the talented prospects. That’s all!! An awful lot has to go right. I’m looking forward to watching some really REALLY talented young guys develop, fingers crossed
I think in reality it will be 2023. I hate to say it but I don’t see them playing much and I don’t see a minor league schedule at all. This will give guys like Kelenic time to grow into his body and become even stronger. It won’t help him hit though.
From all the reports he has a fitness routine that rivals any MLB player. Workouts in the gym like crazy and his diet is very good for a guy his age. I am sure he is hitting off a tee and pitching machine but that is not the same as live. He might surprise us and be up next year he was going to be called up this year more than likely.
Depends on what they do over the next two offseasons, but if they stick with the original plan, they’ll probably struggle to do much of anything before 2023.
With little on the books next season or the following year, it would probably be wise for them to sit tight with their upper-tiers of prospects and start targeting free agents. They could still be a force in 2022 if they hit on a few signings and a few prospects step up.
I wish I could see the names of the free agent pitchers Dipoto and his FO have targeted as possible fits to compliment the rebuild. Outside of Bauer, Paxton and Tanaka, maybe R Ray there’s not a lot of sexy SP names for the 2021 season.
You could argue there are no FA SP’s names even worth the FA capital you’ll need to spend to land one of those “sexy” SP’s! I could see the FO targeting RP’s next year since few SP’s make it past the 7th inn these days. There’s actually a few good RP’s available- Kirby Yates, Bettances, Z Britton, Ken Giles to name a few. I’d love to see their Free Agent ‘board’ – get a sense of their long range vision.
There is a way to get an idea.
You look at the different combos of pitches the current list of front-runners have and see what’s missing from both the right and left-handers.
We know Dipoto likes athletic types with good work ethic and is more likely to go after ground ball pitchers that can miss bats.
That said, what’s really missing is an ace. Gilbert may prove to be a solid number 2 or even better, but a shut-down starter is hard to find.
I would guess that Syndergaard interests him. He should interest him. Even with 2020 spent rehabbing and likely needing all of 2021 to get back on track, Syndergaard could be back to dominating in 2022.
He’s a free agent after this season, so a few things could happen. NY could non-tender him so they don’t spend anything while he’s not in form. They could extend him, or trade him with an extension getting worked out at the time of the trade.
I think he’d be interesting on a Kikuchi type of contract.
Smith will bounce back, but I think the best piece of the trade will be Michael Plassmeyer.
It’s entirely possible that Fraley could become more successful in the big leagues than Mike Z and Mallex- you have to be a fairly good player to succeed in 3 levels (on a new ball club) in a 1yr span. Its crazy to think if it were not for the pandemic today he’d be on his 3rd road trip entering his 4th week of MLB experience. I wonder what his stats would be by this point?
An entire article about how bad you think a player is. Seems a lil desperate and wack. Always liked Mallex Smith, can’t teach speed.