Since joining the Athletics in 2016, Khris Davis has been a steady offensive force in the Oakland lineup, consistently finding his name near the top of yearly home run leaderboards. He hit more at least 42 homers in every year from 2016-2018 and played in at least 150 games each year. He even garnered MVP votes in 2017 and 2018, finishing eighth in the latter year when he slugged a league-leading 48 round-trippers. In April of last year, his reliability earned him a handsome two-year, $33.5MM extension that will keep him in an A’s uniform through at least 2021.
After that, however, things went south for Davis. All told, 2019 wound up being his worst year as a Major Leaguer, with his OPS dropping to just .679 and his wRC+ (81) dipping below league-average 100 for the first time in his career. And given that he doesn’t offer anything defensively, Davis’s value as a player is more sensitive to the fluctuations of his bat, and any slump becomes more pronounced. His value was always going to be limited to the offensive side—the A’s knew that when they signed him, but they couldn’t have foreseen such a sudden and steep fall from grace. But what was the root of his 2019 shortcomings, and what are the chances that Davis can right the ship in 2020 (whenever baseball does return) and be the slugger we’ve come to expect?
Beneath the surface, the striking difference between the 2019 version of Khris Davis and his previous years is that his exit velocity numbers slipped from elite to merely good. From 2016-2018, Davis’s first three years in Oakland, his average exit velocity ranked in the 94th percentile or better every year; in 2019, his 90.1 mph average placed him in only the top 30% of players. That’s still solid, no doubt, but for a player whose game is predicated almost entirely on power, that decline is considerably more significant. Davis has never been a batting average or OBP guy, so every tick off the exit velocity metric is important.
This worked against Davis in combination with a lessened ability to elevate the ball: along with the exit velocity numbers, Davis’s average launch angle on batted balls lowered from 18.1 to 13.2 degrees. Consequently, Davis saw his fly ball rate drop from 48.8% in 2018 to 37.4% last year, his lowest mark since 2013 when he was a Brewer. And of course, sacrificing fly balls comes with a corresponding jump in line drives and ground balls, which are markedly less valuable to a slugger like Davis—especially when he isn’t hitting the ball with as much authority as in years past.
Even when he did hit the ball in the air, he wasn’t doing as much damage as we’re used to seeing (which is even more unusual in 2019, given the league-wide power surge fueled by a jumpy baseball). And most of the drop-off came in a particular category: fly balls to the opposite field. Davis is a prolific opposite-field hitter, and it’s one of the traits that makes his power stand out; he hit 16 oppo homers in 2018 alone, more than anybody this side of J.D. Martinez. Last year, though, his wOBA on opposite-field fly balls was just .264, down from the astronomical .489 he posted the year prior. In essence, Khrush’s oppo power—a staple of his power game—became a non-factor, and anything in the air needed to be pulled.
As for his approach on a more micro scale, he swung the bat more than ever last year, especially at pitches in the zone: his 82.2% swing rate on pitches in the strike zone was the highest of his career, and his overall swing rate the second-highest. But Davis has lived in that neighborhood for his entire Athletics tenure, and it hasn’t stopped him from hitting in the past. Anyway, attacking hittable pitches is a good thing, and he doesn’t get exploited by going after too many bad pitches; his chase rate is just about league average. Moreover, that change hasn’t had any effect on his ability to make contact, and it hasn’t produced a precipitous change to either his walk or strikeout rate, which both sat right about where they were the year before.
So, what’s to blame for the sharp decline in production? It seems unlikely that a player in his early 30s, who just a year earlier mashed 48 home runs, could be sapped of his strength so suddenly. Career designated hitters like Nelson Cruz and Edwin Encarnación have maintained their pop into their late-30s; why should Davis be any different? It’d be more appropriate to chalk Davis’s struggles up to injuries: he was able to play in just 133 games for the A’s—the fewest in his Oakland tenure—and likely dealt with nagging consequences of oblique and hand injuries, both of which are notoriously troublesome for hitters. And it makes sense that with lingering hand problems, opposite field power would be one of the first things to go.
The oblique injury occurred in early May, while the hand issue dates to a HBP in late June. Sure enough, Davis’s three worst months in terms of OPS were July, August, and September. And trying to play through those injuries probably didn’t help things any. But with a full offseason (and more) to heal up the oblique and hand, the hope is that the Athletics will be able to count on a fully-healthy Davis to anchor the middle of their lineup for another postseason bid. The bet here is that Davis will be able to re-establish the consistent production he maintained for his first three years in Oakland.
The 2019 A’s were still able to succeed without much of the production they relied upon from Davis in 2018, thanks in part to the continued offensive maturation of Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, and Marcus Semien, as well as unexpected contributions from a host of low-profile hitters like Mark Canha. Their stout bullpen and patchwork rotation of misfits managed to prevent runs like the American League powerhouses, and with young guns A.J. Puk and Jesús Luzardo on hand and here to stay, they expect more of the same in 2020. Davis could be the missing ingredient to that equation, and another year of elite power output might make the difference between a third consecutive Wild Card exit and a deeper playoff run.
thericslater
That’s a super long article without a mention of.247….
SFGiantsGallore
Was looking for it the entire time too lol
Swapmeet
Not only did it leave out the unbelievable consistency of the .247 for four consecutive years, but also a huge piece of the puzzle, namely, he was slashing .229/.303/.481 with 10 bombs leading up to a May 5th crash into the wall in left at PNC, while making a pretty good catch. From May 5th on, he hit .217/.289/.351 with a measly 13 homers, for the rest of the season. I think that is a very important factor, since it is pretty much obvious that injury caused the decline. Therefore, this anomaly makes a rebound almost certain. He was just starting to make consistent solid contact in spring before the shutdown, so I drafted him in my keeper league for an absolute steal at $6… I’m in on Khrush in 2020….. 44 homers and an average of .247…maybe even a little more in both categories as a “statement year.”
Buzz Saw
Exactly. He got hurt. Stayed and played hurt all year. His stats suffered. The end.
WillieMaysHayes24
I still can’t wrap my head around it. A statistical anomaly the likes of which we will never see again.
toooldtocare
“Krush” Davis as he is known by us Ranger fans.
Had a knack of coming up with big hits. Saw him almost singlehandedly mount an 8 run comeback win against the Rangers in 2017. Class act as a person also. Can’t help but root for him.
southern lion
Agreed, on all points.
CursedRangers
Yeah he has destroyed the Rangers. Used to cringe every time he came up to bat against us.
Samdawg
How was spring? Healed? Power back?
sacball
he didn’t play too much (strained calf I think?) but when he did, he looked back to his old self
WildRemote
Man… Milwaukee had a monopoly on the sporting world’s supply of Khris’s for a while
bigwestbaseball
Cal State Fullerton Titans!
i like al conin
Hell yeah!
giants number 1 fan
Injuries greatly affected him. If he’s healthy, he’ll rebound
casey21
True comments
Fg-3
He’s another all or nothing guy… will be out of Baseball in 2 years..he’s no Nelson Cruz or Jd Martinez. Not even in the ballpark
All American Johnsonville Dogs
Prior to last year he posted decent OBP numbers of .336 and .326. Not elite by any means but for a guy with his power his strikeouts aren’t that worrisome and his obp ability is decent. Seems like he just had an off year. Maybe athletic fans might know the severity of the injuries that bugged him all season that he played through to help explain the drop.
If he’s healthy he should rebound and be productive for a couple more seasons. He’s only 30.
LouisianaAstros
JD Martinez is a solid player but playing that 1/2 season with Arizona and 2 seasons in Boston has increased his production
Davis is a solid but if he isn’t hitting 35+ home runs he isn’t worth an everyday lineup spot.
AssumeFactsNotInEvidence
Being one of the best pure hitters in the game has helped JD Martínez. Completely sleeping on your stadium excuse! The man is a hitter!
LouisianaAstros
Interested in seeing what the OPS his final year in Detriot would have been but his elite seasons were 2017 and 2018.
His OPS playing for Arizona was 1.1 and the OPS for Boston was plus 1.0+
The rest of the time the difference between him and Davis isn’t much.
What would Davis do in Boston or playing in Arizona?
Can’t just look at stats and make concrete judgements on players because stadiums do have an impact as well as other things.
Reason why you see some players move teams and take a huge hit in numbers or increase their production.
AssumeFactsNotInEvidence
Fundamentally ignorant.
JD martinez is a HITTER. Take a look at his batting averages in Detroit. I’m not talking about power. This can be determined without stats. Watch the two of them play.
Khris Davis hits homeruns and that’s about it. Khris Davis also played at Miller Park so let’s cool your jets on all that. And please think a little more before comparing JD to Khris Davis. You’re way off base.
its_happening
You didn’t explain the fundamentally ignorant part. Can you please re-start and this time state facts rather than the pure anger and hatred you are used to? We’re here to help make a better you.
AssumeFactsNotInEvidence
The Maple Syrup has blocked your ability to see yourself! You don’t like when I do what you’re known for???
DarkSide830
just as long as he hits .247 this year.
All American Johnsonville Dogs
Gonna be a trivia fact somewhere or on some game show in a decade or so.
bravesfan
Here’s what guys like him tell me…. he can’t hit well enough with straight contact to not get on base other ways.. he’s been valuable because he could hit a bunch of bombs and get on base… but you know… still isn’t much of a hitter honestly
Swapmeet
That is an interesting opinion. I guess it all comes down to what makes “much of a hitter,” to you. In my humble opinion, if your batting average is at the league average (.248), and you hit over twice the league average (20) home runs, and your OPS over the 4 years prior to the injury year show an increase each year over the year prior, and average .850, while at the same time increasing your homers year-over-year–averaging 40+/year…. That kind of DOES make you “much of a hitter,” honestly.
YankeesBleacherCreature
A career OPS+ of 119 in 3,200 ABs says otherwise. He’s no superstar but he’s been a productive bat except for last year due to injury.
LouisianaAstros
300 hitters are a waste if those 3 hits are singles.
A 100 hitter is worth more if that 1 hit is an extra base hit especially if that player has a 1 HR in 20 at bat ratio.
Most teams will trade contact for power.
Especially in baseball today.
1 swing changes the game.
AssumeFactsNotInEvidence
Brain dead stupidity! 50 doubles and bat .100! That’s more valuable than a .300 hitter! You’ve crossed the line into idiot territory!
LouisianaAstros
In terms of run production..
Teams are trying to create runs
Percentage of singles that score
Percentage of doubles that score
Percentage of Triples that score
Percentage of Home Runs that score are 100%
LouisianaAstros
Do you understand shifts and teams learning your tendencies
You can’t shift your fielders behind the fence
its_happening
I’ll take 3 singles over 3 walks every single day of the week. At least singles will move runners along if there are men on-base. A walk can be handed out like candy with a base open and one or two outs to put the force on. Walks hurt defensive teams less which is why they have no problem walking players in certain situations.
Thank you for opening the door to make a clear path toward why walks are overvalued and thus creates a negative ripple effect for those arguing why WAR matters.
Swapmeet
OPS matters. This is partially Louisiana’s point… If your team is garbage and you are batting .300, but no one is ever on base to drive in and people rarely hit you in, how valuable to the team is that .300?
For example: It is no big story that the Orioles suck. Hanser Alberto batted .305 with .751 OPS. That was good for 12 HR, 51 RBI, and 62 runs.
How valuable is that .305, when compared to Khris Davis in ’18 and his piddly .247 AssumeFacts? is that .300 worth more than Khris’ .247 with 48 HR, 123 RBI, and 98 Runs? That is Louisiana’s point. It is not brain dead stupidity. It is common sense, which doesn’t seem too be very common anymore..
On the other hand, Cody Bellinger also batted .305 last year. The incredibly valuable .305 that included 47 bombs, 115 RBI, 121 Runs, an OPS of 1.035, and an MVP. I choose that .305 all day, everyday, but he was talking about rather having production numbers like Khris Davis’ over Hanser Alberto’s, and I agree… it might be “brain dead stupidity” to take Hanser’s .305 over Khris’ .247, huh?
LouisianaAstros
Everything is based around run percentage
Good chance a single creates more runs than a walk.
This idea of getting on base is good only for one thing.
The 3 run HR and the Grand Slam. The big inning
I am going to use Yunel Escobar for example.
Hit 313 and around 304 in 2015 and 2016
2017 his average dropped to 274 and found himself out of baseball.
Those high averages didn’t mean much because he lacked any power.
A hitter who hit 100 points less than him with power is way more valuable.
300 Avg with singles is only valuable if it comes with someone that also can get on base close to 40% of the time
Or
That 300 average with singles comes with stolen bases.
Back to Khris Davis.
The guy drives the baseball. Was a consistent 40 Home Run Hitter.
Who cares if he hits only 247
He hits 1 HR every 4 games on average
its_happening
It’s not a good chance, it is a fact singles produces more runs than walks. Just a huge point that shows we ought to stop lifting walks to be more valuable than it really is. Your argument over singles applies to walks too unless the player is a speedster. Swiping bags is hard to come by these days.
Not a clever name
I like Davis he’s fun to watch and seems to fit in well in Oakland. He’s an exciting hitter but his defense is so bad, I go to a few Ana’s games a year to see some of the AL guys that don’t come through San Francisco when I’m not traveling and I have literally seen little leaguers that play better defense than him. That being said not many guys can go from Milwaukee to Oakland and improve their power numbers, this guy hits a lot of homers and they are hardly ever cheap shots.
traveling man
How the Hell is Nelson Cruz a career DH?
its_happening
Old age and PEDs?
Tim_Buck-Two
Khris Davis and Chris Davis both fell off a cliff like that. Maybe it has something to do with the first name or perhaps even something to do with the last name of Davis. Its a conspiracy I know, but what isn’t these days with all the talk of Lügenpresse by Donalf Trumpler. Worst thing about it is all this money he’s printing. Were already seeing baseball players getting paid 350 million for 10 years. What’s next 500 million, 750 million, how about a 1 billion?
its_happening
Was there any point to your jibberish because it wasn’t very clever. I guess I should say, nice try?
If you do not like the escalating contracts there is something you can do about it. If you’re willing.
hinglemccringleberry
He hit .247 for 4 straight years. That has to be world record right? How often has that happened in major league history?