If the 2020 MLB season is canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic, players will receive service time equal to the amount they accrued in 2019. That’s a win for any player who received a full year in ’19, as they’d remain on track for free agency as expected. That includes Mookie Betts, George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, Trevor Bauer, and everyone else expected to be in the 2020-21 free agent class.
A canceled season would sting for someone like Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux, who picked up 28 days of Major League service as a rookie last year but was likely to get a full season in 2020. Lux’s free agency would have arrived after the 2025 season, but if this season is canceled, he’ll project to become a free agent after ’26. And then there are others who didn’t get any MLB service in ’19 but were expected to in ’20, such as Wander Franco, Jo Adell, and Nate Pearson.
It’s worth considering how the balance would shift in recent major trades if there’s no 2020 season. The Betts trade, where the Dodgers’ main acquisition was a star rental player, dramatically shifts toward the Red Sox.
Pre-coronavirus expectations of the Mookie Betts trade:
- Dodgers get one year of Mookie Betts, three years of David Price, $48MM from the Red Sox and can make Betts a qualifying offer after the season
- Red Sox get five years of Alex Verdugo, six years of Jeter Downs and six years of Connor Wong
Canceled season results of the Mookie Betts trade:
- Dodgers get zero years of Mookie Betts, two years of David Price, $32MM from Red Sox and can make Betts a qualifying offer
- Red Sox get four years of Alex Verdugo, six years of Jeter Downs and six years of Connor Wong
The Red Sox had been scheduled to pay $48MM to the Dodgers in 18 equal installments, starting tomorrow. However, MLBTR has confirmed that all cash considerations will be adjusted proportionally to the salary reductions that end up occurring in 2020. So if the Dodgers don’t wind up paying Price in 2020, the Red Sox won’t send money to them. My $32MM figure assumes the 2021 season is played in full.
Price remains a useful pitcher, so it’s not as if the Red Sox gave up nothing of value. And while they’d still pay the Dodgers $32MM in 2021-22, that’s only half what they’d have originally owed Price for his age 35-36 seasons. The Sox might have accepted that arrangement with nothing in return from the Dodgers, but they still get to keep Verdugo, Downs, and Wong. Though a canceled season would mean the Red Sox would lose the chance to reset under the luxury tax in 2020, that will be less challenging in ’21 given the Price trade and the fact that Jackie Bradley Jr. ($11MM) will be coming off the books.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, would find themselves without Betts, Verdugo, or Joc Pederson for the 2021 season (unless they re-sign Pederson as a free agent). They’d lose a crucial year of control of Cody Bellinger, who would likely settle back in as the regular right fielder. That would leave A.J. Pollock as the regular center fielder. The Dodgers would have an even bigger question mark in left, where Pederson, Verdugo, and Pollock combined to take more than half of the innings in 2019. Chris Taylor and Matt Beaty would be the main in-house candidates, so the Dodgers would likely have to make an outfield acquisition.
Betts could still wind up playing meaningful games for the Dodgers if the 2020 season is canceled, as they’d be a top contender for him in what could be a strange free agency period. It would hardly be a shock to see the entire free agent market suffer due to teams’ lost revenue in 2020, forcing Betts to settle for less than he expected prior to the pandemic.
Could the Dodgers receive some sort of recourse on the Betts trade if the season is canceled? I polled MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, and Connor Byrne, and none of them find that likely. As Steve put it, “If there’s an alteration to the Betts deal, that just seems like opening Pandora’s box. Every team in the league would be clamoring for compensation because almost everyone would be getting screwed to some extent.” Whether it’s the Reds acquiring Trevor Bauer last summer with an eye toward 2020, the Diamondbacks losing one of their two years of Starling Marte, or the Rangers losing a year of Corey Kluber, many teams are dealing with a similar situation.
For more on this topic, check out my new video discussion with Jeff Todd:
Imagine if this season was wiped out and Mookie came back to Boston… It won’t happen, but boy would that be a steal for the Sox
Why won’t it happen?
Biggest reason Mookie wouldn’t be back in THAT scenario is it puts boston back in the same CBT black hole they tried to escape by trading him.
With Sale shelved until mid-late 2021 season at the earliest, you can see how blown apart the pitching is. You still don’t know what rebound Eovaldi makes, and he wouldn’t have built trade value.
With many mid-lower market income teams losing revenue, but still owing taxes and salaries to non-players, I’d expect FA bidding to be slightly less than usual – meaning JDM likely doesn’t opt out again.
With Erod approaching FA, and having a shelved Sale and enigmatic Eovaldi behind him (and nothing else of proven calber) I just can’t see ownership green lighting a massive contract to mookie that leaves them uncompetitive in the rotation and back in CBT wastelands.
If the CBT could reset then all that changes. BUT as-is? Nope, can’t see it.
Boston is in that hole either way as a cancelled season will not re set the CBT previous taxpayers
@afk711 – no, boston would not pay cbt penalties in 2021 so long as they do not sign any big ticket free agents. They would be under the tax – just like they were set to be this year.
If 2021 payroll was 190-200m without mookie, vs 220-2030m with Mookie, only on the version with Mookie do they pay the tax.
You confuse having had the tax already reset, not being reset yet but also not being subject to paying the tax due to payroll, and the specter of paying it at the rate of 3rd time or greater offender.
If boston doesn’t sign mookie in FA they would be expected to fall below cbt threshold.
If boston is under cbt threshold in 2021 they pay no cbt penalties. Avoiding cbt penalties has nothing to do with whether the tax resets in 2020 and everything to do with what their 2021 payroll would be had the tax not reset.
Boston is currently under the threshold and will not be paying a cbt tax.
No, if 2020 is cancelled, Boston needs to stay under the limit for all of 2021. That means they can’t sign Betts, who becomes a FA at the end of 2020 no matter what.
Wrong
Boston is currently under the threshold, but it was explained on this site that if the season were canceled, any resets that would have happened this year will have to be carried thru next year. So essentially if the season is cancelled, Boston will still be over the CBT, they just wont pay a penalty on it this year and will have to reset next year.
Since you don’t explain yourself, it’s difficult to engage. But the rule requires a team to get below the threshold and stay below it for a whole season to reset the luxury tax rate. If there is a 2020 season, and the Sox stay below the line, then they can sign Betts for 2021 and only pay the tax at the lowest rate.
But if there’s no 2020 season, the terms of the recent agreement requires Boston to stay under the limit for the whole of 2021 in order to reset the rate. If they sign Betts and it puts them over the limit in 2021, they’ll be paying the highest rate. That’s exactly what they were trying to prevent by trading him.
So, without a 2020 season, I don’t see the Sox signing Betts unless they shed more salary elsewhere before 2021.
It will be interesting to see the type of $dollar amount they (any/all MLB teams) offer up on contracts after all this.
That would be the just outcome actually. Then Betts would be in Boston to enjoy the full scorn of baseball fans everywhere when the Commissioner’s report of the Red Sox / Betts cheating their way to a World Series Championship and MVP Award finally drops.
And for that reason, there’s no way in the world Betts will sign with Boston.
The best part of your schtick is you’re a Yankees fan…
I don’t dislike the Yankees, but I do their fans…..
so you’re saying his 2018 WAR being 3 WAR better than the previous or following season and Boston’s cheating might be related?
Sigh..smh
HalosHeaven.. apparently you weren’t told that you’re supposed to IGNORE the 800 lbs gorilla in the room.
Angeles won 99 games in 2002 and only 77 in 2003…with your lack of logic they must have cheated in 2002 …. you are clueless
+4WSsince04
Thing is, we KNOW Boston cheated in 08.
I am a Yankee fan and I get this feeling the Yanks unload Stanton to LA and Betts is in LF in the Bronx.
We’ve been here before with Aroid going to Boston and before you knew it he was to Jeter’s right.
LA doesn’t do huge contracts. They certainly aren’t going to take on a huge contract of someone who is underperforming his cost. If anything, they will sign Betts. The Yankees are stuck with Stanton.
I would think Betts would have more value defensively, and also his ability to stay on the field to counts for something too…. going to be hard to unload Stanton without paying a pantload to offset the lack of production at that price point
Much more likely LA just pays Betts what he wants than trades for Stanton.
Dream on! You clowns took on that ridiculous contract and no one is going to help you get out of it. Stanton is breaking down right before your eyes. How do you say PEDs!
@AL34 oh but Jeter “gifted Stanton to his former organization!”
No team in MLB will take DH Stanton, so you are stuck with him….another Ellsbury contract
Jeter’s gift was a lump of coal in the Yankees stocking
Even without PEDs, injuries add up fast, and the body doesnt recover as well with age.
I’m sure this extended break will help many players
Kershaw got a $200M deal that was extended. They took on Price’s deal with BOS help. Part of their massive budget affords them ability to take on terrible deals at rock-bottom prices.
Laugh of the day. Thanks
Yes Network centerfield camera anyone?
Could happen if free agent prices come down because of all the money lost by owners. It was reported Boston had a 300+ million offer on the table.
How would that be any different than the season being played and then him “coming back”
The trade was made knowing he would be a free agent after this season regardless. Who Betts signs with next year has no bearing on the value of the trade.
Undo the trade because some unseen virus at the time was going to come and cancel the season and THEN.. Betts had the LAD uniform on for a couple weeks during ST in Arizona..
Call it what u want, but outright bias against Boston is #1. Bad enough they forced the team to undo several bulk IFA FA’s several years back for that “package deal” they did where multiple people got 300k and several were pooled towards 1, nothing novel there, it had been done before, only Boston was penalized.
Not 1st time have seen John Henry, who calls out cheap owners receiving HIS money for what they are and lap dog commissioners playing right along.
Ummm, Boston got a pat on the back compared to what the Braves received…
Solely because no one liked the Braves loudmouth brash GM…lol Most teams, except maybe Baltimore, were doing the exact same thing, but it was only the Braves that got made an example of…
Because without a season, he was never really gone in the first place.
Not really a steal, though. They’d have lost a season of Betts either way, now they lose a season of Verdugo as well. Plus, Mookie isn’t coming back to Boston cheap…and I honestly don’t think he’ll come back at all. Dodgers have extremely deep pockets and there are a few other teams who could use a big upgrade in RF.
The economy is crashing. Fans will have less money for baseball expenses. Owners will have less money to pay players. Sorry but some teams might go bankrupt. All should expect big changes.
Prophetically on point!
You know Ejemp.. Having the league at around 20 teams tops wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world and I’d kind of like it as someone who remembers a time when there was every team in both the AL and then the NL all bundled separately fighting for 1 spot to see who plays in the WS
Sure, there was bottom teams every year.. Cubs, Senators, whitesox to name a few during the 60’s, but most of the other teams were competitive at least a cpl of those seasons when just 1 team from each league got to advance.
Getting rid of cheap owners and handout surviving teams would be the extra bonus, not to mention players who really don’t belong at the highest level.
I’d prefer 24 teams rather than 20. Go back to four divisions with six teams, division winners and then two WC teams, going back to four playoff qualifiers rather than five.
@ John Silver, @Wild Bill Tetley….
Whether it is 20 or 24 teams, (losing 6 or 10 teams) which are the ones that are supposed to be the turkeys voting for Christmas?
Now if the worst AL & NL teams were relegated to AAA and replaced by the two best AAA teams? You’d force cheapskate owners to spend at the trade deadline (at least) to avoid obscurity. You’d also improve pay and conditions for AAA players. This is how any European soccer league or any sports league other than US sport works (with European teams tied to a fixed town or city) whereas American Sports team are a franchise and able to relocate…
In other words – in US Sports – once you are eating at the top table you ain’t eating anywhere else…
And I find the “fewer players = a better product” argument nonsensical. It’s only 75 years since Jackie Robinson. Now players from the the Far East, Australia, and a much increased Latino presence are also involved. I don’t believe a 10 team increase over 50 years has really diluted the quality. What industry rejects growth?
Was it really that much better playing the same 9 teams (162 at least divides by 9) 18 times with a one off World Series? (By the way if you can get a copy read the Last Real World Champions about the 1968 Tigers)…
Please flame away and all this is just in the (questionably) humble opinion of an English 2008 convert to baseball who watched his first game at Fenway in 2012. My A’s lost… We won the following night.
Stay safe, take care & fire!
The original point started a few comments above regarding the economy. All Silver and I did was state a hypothetical, which may have been irresponsible on our part. Or you could say it’s a humble opinion. To be honest, I would prefer 32 teams in Major League Baseball.
To answer your question about growth, struggling divisions in a company will be cut. I sincerely doubt many owners will struggle to the point of contraction. That is a last stop and there would be a sale before a contraction. Not all industries grow. Ask Sears and Radio Shack.
50 years ago some of the best athletes in the US played baseball. That is not the case anymore. Certain demographics in the game of baseball have also changed. They are losing potential superstars to other sports.
Hello @ Wild Bill – thank you for your response.
As you point out – and I agree – not all industries grow perennially – but again what industries actually reject growth in favour of contraction?
Similarly (in terms of pure competition) of course some of the best athletes played baseball, some of them are lucky enough to be able to choose. As an A’s fan we “lost” Kyler Murray. As far as I’m concerned, good luck to him, he can do what he wants to do.
On reflection I have a feeling we might be arguing pretty much the same point from different locations – in which case apologies for wasting your time!
Sure by the way it is a humble opinion and 32 teams makes the play off maths easier – again as a humble opinion I was a fan of the three division winners, one wild card team approach. Usually the wild card team is/was arguably the 2nd best team in the NL/AL and if my A’s won (say) 95 games against two 90 game division winners it is difficult to argue that they shouldn’t be involved in play offs…
Again, out of interest where would you suggest the two additional teams should be located?
The schedule balanced better with the two division system. A team could face a pitcher 5 times in a season depending on how the schedule falls in today’s current system, and the mystery is gone. I should preface by saying I’d want two Wild Card teams on-top of two division winners. Two best records to not win the division makes it in, 1 plays 4, 2 plays 3.
As for the two teams….Nashville and Charlotte would be high on my list.
Indianapolis strongly supports their AAA team and I would consider them. So does Las Vegas. San Antonio is a big city as well.
Montreal needs an owner, a new stadium, a stadium location and help from the Province. I would not have them ahead of the teams I mentioned.
Agreed – even when mlb starts the stands will be mostly empty. There will be budget busting losses, so a lot less spending in salaries for next year, and maybe a lot of one year contracts for FAs.
Couldn’t they just keep everyone’s status the way it is? All FA are pushed back 1 year. Seems fair to me. Dodgers get Mookie for 2021 and he’s a FA after that.
Except there is already a signed agreement between MLB and the MLBPA regarding how service will be handled…
What happens to an agreement when one side can’t uphold their part, specifically owners being unable to pay salaries.
If I was a AAA star I would be seriously considering moving to Korea or Japan where they already have the situation under control and don’t have a buffoon running the country. Baseball will be back there before it returns to the US and people like me who have baseball addictions might just change viewing habits permanently.
How would that be fair to the player? All else being equal, the younger you hit free agency, the more money teams are willing to offer.
Red Sox come away winners from that trade, if the season is cancelled, right? I think Price will pitch better in LA. Would any team trade that package for just Price is the question? He needed out of Boston, though. That was a poor fit for team and player.
You think price will pitch better in LA than Boston? Price is an aging pitcher who has dealt with injuries in recent years and has struggled to get along in a big market like boston. LA is no smaller than Boston and is likely considered a larger market and price is still getting even older. Price will also have to stand up at the plate two or three times per game and if he gets on base, he will be forced to use energy running the basepaths. A large majority of those at bats will be sac bunts that will use some extent of energy running toward first base
LA is a much better park for most pitchers and they handle their staff far differently.
Agreed and agreed.
Interesting!
yep
LA may be a bigger market, but the media doesn’t compare.
LA is a bigger market, but there’s so many things to do for entertainment in SoCal that the media pressure doesn’t equate. The Red Sox are a part of Boston’s DNA. There’s a different standard of scrutiny in both places.
A lot of commenters have touched on some of my reasoning. Another component to it, road games in San Diego and SF too, where pitching thrives. He’d be playing more than half a season in some great pitcher’s parks, which in a normal year, might be 16-21 starts.
He also ended up on the bad side of the Boston media. LA is a large market, but a far more forgiving one in the media.
Let’s not forget the home fans. Fenway is notoriously tough on any anybody but especially players of color. While I can’t remember any documented cases with Price, the things players like Carl Crawford, CC Sabathia, Adam Jones, and Torii Hunter have said have been chilling.
At worst, in LA, he’ll hear “you suck.”
I like how people bring up the market size if a pitcher struggles at Fenway or Yankee stadium,when its most likely has to do with playing in a softball stadium
i think Appa… was referring to the fact that Dodger Stadium is a more pitcher friendly ball park not that Price will pitch better than he did his four years in Boston.
I’d rage if I were a Dodgers fan. I know it’s not possible but the league should definitely bring in arbitrators to rework deals like this. Let the Red Sox keep assets but don’t let it be such a big haul for essentially nothing.
Why though? I’d be pissed but are we going to put a freeze on everyone’s age ?
Pandora’s Box.
Teams trade for guys that wind up injured in the offseason before ever suiting up and wind up being garbage all the time. Do you then u wind those deals since it wasn’t the clubs fault they got no service from the player?
No, you cant.
Saying the betts/Price deal needs reworking means every team has a claim for losing service time under the suspended season with regard to EVERY player.
Mlb, obviously with consent of the clubs, made a deal as to how service time will be handled. Thats the end of it.
@AtlSoxFan yup. The Red Sox also lose a full year of production from Devers and Bogey. Just that that year wasn’t also their last year before free agency.
Both teams suffer. LA doesn’t get the 1 year of Betts to finally put them over the top and win the World Series. Boston gets to keep the players and prospects that they got for him. At the same time, with the luxury tax not resetting, the whole reason they traded him is gone. Now Boston has to be under the luxury tax next year. It originally worked out almost perfectly for the Sox. They lose Betts for his last year, their luxury tax resets, and they can sign him next year. That will not happen now.
Add to it the prospects Boston acquired won’t get a year to develop, which pushes their likely MLB contribution back, which pushes at least part of their rebuild plan back.
Not the WHOLE reason they traded him. Also to shed David Price’s contract and add some potential long-term building blocks in Verdugo, Wong and Downs. Those still happen. Also, holding onto Betts wouldn’t have meant they could sign him next offseason without going over the luxury tax threshold either.
They wanted to get rid of Mookie to reset the luxury tax this year. That way next year when he is a free agent they would be able to spend the money to sign him back. That cannot happen now. I am not saying they would have signed him and yes, they still got rid of Price and got some prospects. I am just saying that everything did not go their way.
Your Dodgers got taken BIG TIME my little goat!
“My” Dodgers? Whaaaaaaaaa? I’m not even a Dodgers fan.
Boston looses one year Verdugo (5 controllable remaining), but still have 7 on Wong and Downs, but every player looses a year of development.
I agree with everything you said 100%. I know it’s not possible. Its just a terrible pill to swallow for the Dodgers.
Its not nothing. They can make a QO to him and get a pick and they get Price still and the $32 million
The Sox also can’t reserve CBT, so both teams lost the main reason they did the trade.
If the season is canceled MLB and the MLBPA will have to get together on some sort of joint policy on the offseason trades. If it all goes down ad hoc that will only add to the lost season catastrophe.
Hey goat.. Would u be raging if cashman had managed to pawn off the remaining 200m on stanton’s contract?? Not hardly.
Keep ur bias to urself plz.
Bias? You might have to look up that word. I don’t think you know what it means.
Plus I don’t know exactly what Cashman or Stanton have to do, but Stanton isn’t a rental. Whoever would be acquiring him wouldn’t give up assets for nothing. You must have missed that point.
Contemplating a re-work of any trade from this past off-season would open a dangerous precedent for years to come. Your idea is bad. However it did come from a good place.
Stanton …. Ellsbury 2.0
Why?
Glad preller did not trade for Betts
Red Sox probably wanted Gore or Patiño and Campusanto, among others. Not worth it for one season of Betts and a compensatory draft pick.
That’d never happen
There are surplus that are very good players that would have been a jewel for the Sox
Not my problem
I actually never thought of this scenario. I never thought the DA market would be affected due to lost revenues. Poor Mookie as a FA.
“Poor Mookie” the guy who got caught cheating his way to an MVP Award and World Series” lol ok
if Clara Pellet were around, she’d be yelling “where’s the beef”? Just wait for the report. That said, to me JDM was their MVP.
*Clara Peller.
Clara Peller
Are you crazy? He has been great ever since the minor league… He is the best right fielder in the league he doesn’t battle injuries like other players. He always plays to his fullest 2019 is his down year since he knew that he was going to get traded and wanted to be healthy and also he still had a great year, but other players on the team such as devers and bogey. With this season on hold and the rumors from teammates saying that they will make an offer to Betts, “bogey said they have enough to make an offer to him”. The office loves betts and his production he makes on and off the field. It’s sad you have to say he cheated for an MVP. you should be saying that about Altuve when he beat out the rookie judge. It’s just sad.
What did he caught doing?
he’ll be fine. top notch FAs wolnt lose any money, its just the mid tier guys that will.
Are you sure? This will be the worst economic depression since the 1930s. He’s probably losing $50-70 M
no, he’s not. he’s still going to be the most desirable FA this upcoming offseason, so if anyone lowers their potential offer to him there will be one more team willing to swoop in and offer more.
And pay him with all the lost revenue….mlb does not print money like the government …..you must be one of those….free medical….free college….free everything…just print more……
Teams can’t pay what they don’t have
Win some, lose some. The trade should remain unchanged – done deal.
Exactly, the money should stay the same too. That’s the way it is if Betts were to get hurt and miss a portion of the season.
“The money should stay the same”….teams can pay unlimited money ……really
reset rosters back to last day of 2019 season
Let’s just have the first ever MLB fantasy draft. Everyone is draftable, order is inverse of the average team record over the past 10 years. With the first pick; Marlins select Mike Trout
Holy Christ, password. That would be amazing. Who do we have to kill to make this happen?
all the players because none would agree to that
A crazy idea, but hey, I’ve got nothing but time on my hands!
If they did this, assume the contracts would also have to be carried – in which case, Trout wouldn’t be the first pick (especially not if the Marlins got the first pick), because he’s so expensive.
Who would be the first pick? Assume all service time holds – who’s the most team friendly deal signed right now? I am unsure who it would be … Ramirez? Acuna? Moncada? Maybe Trout? Devers?
Acuna. Better player than any of those save Trout and a long, team-friendly extension. Devers has had only one good season, but a ton of talent. Same with Moncada. Ramirez is on a great contract for his production, but it’s only 4 more years.
Most “valuable” contract to own is obviously Acuna… Age 21 through age 30 for cheap. Fernando Tatis Jr was likely #2, but losing this 2nd yr of control after not locking him up before last yr stings. Which makes the Ozzie Albies lockup (cough* cough* robbery) all the wiser and a top 2-5 team friendly contract.
God we need baseball.
BetterAJthanPreller – I think you are probably right.
However, Acuna is still owed $98M – $14M/year for 6 years, plus a $10M buyout, which while very team friendly – is not nearly as cheap as an arb only player. Granted, Acuna will produce more value than every arb player, especially because he’s locked up for more years.
This is what brought me to someone like Devers – his arb will be ~$50M at most for 2021, 2022, 2023 combined. Is there another player out there that is on a rookie/arb contract who could produce more value?
Don’t get me wrong, if I were a GM, I’d still probably go with Trout or Acuna, but if you’re purely looking for surplus value, I wonder if you could get someone making arb money but delivering MVP value.
Love Devers. Considered him in that Bregman, Bellinger, Soto category of elite young players. But with Acuna locked in for $1MM in 2020, $5MM in 2021 (when he would have entered arbitration) braves escape $20mm and $30mm in following arb’s where the Sox got to with Mookie. More than that, somehow capturing free agent years of age 26 through age 30 with a total contract AAV of $12.5 is incredibleeee! There’s potential for Acuna accruing the contract value in two full seasons. As fans, lets hope a $10mm buyout isn’t needed at age 29 lol.
Maybe Soto or Acuña Jr. would be my best guess as to the first overall picks..
This would be a hell of an idea for an article just for fun. If the contracts really do carry over, I’d be interested to see how much of a premium it would put on young guys, especially those with team-friendly deals, like Acuna, Albies, Eloy, and J-Ram. According to this (i.redd.it/r6rwnxf4cmp31.jpg) my White Sox would get the 3rd pick after the Marlins and Padres. Of course, given the chance, Reinsdorf and his insane loyalty might just repick their roster. lol.
The Dodgers don’t win that trade unless they win a world series with betts. They completed that trade in order to get them over the hump of making the playoffs and not winning w title. If the season isn’t played this year and betts walks, the only way the Sox could lose the deal is if an aging price has another 2018 flash in the passer postseason that leads the dodgers to a world series title. … the sox made the deal in order to get quality youth and free up money in order to stay competitive for years to come. Only way they lose the deal is if they aren’t competitive over a sustained period of time in the near future.
Hard to win a trade aimed at short term results if you don’t get them. I agree.
Yes. A team that trades prospects for a rental can only win that trade if they either win a World Series that year and said rental contributes or if said rental re-signs with the team and there is empirical evidence that he wouldn’t have signed with them if they hadn’t traded for him first, ceteris paribus. Pretty standard stuff.
Springer’s free agent case would be fascinating. He needed to play this year on the level to let teams properly evaluate him and he wouldn’t get that chance.
He’d head into free agency known as a guy who got a lot of bangs and probably buzzes but with no indication of what he’d do without them.
I guess we could compare it to guys widely known/suspected of using PED’s who became free agents after 2002 when testing came around.
He’ll still get paid.
lol What if Mookie signs with the Giants , they have $$ and need an outfielder , he would take the giants to a new level too
Giants don’t have money lol
They are tapped out with aging veterans
No they arent. The payroll of that team is nowhere near its recent highs, and all most the money is off the books after two years
The Giants stand to benefit greatly if there’s no season. All those expensive deals for older players get one year closer to being done but without the Giants having to actually pay them.
MLBTR writers, it might be cool to look at which teams would benefit the most from no season. The Angels not paying Pujols, for example. Detroit sidestepping a year of Miggy. But overall, I think the Giants would likely be near the top.
actually no, with the new coaching staff the plan for a lot of the veterans on the staff is to retool them and either get production out of them or trade them to bolster the system ahead of their contracts – remember that after 2022 none of their veteran contracts will be on the books except longo (such a dumb move to pick him up) so anyone that remains (like I can see them re signing posey but as a backup after bart comes up) will be on much lower contracts for shorter lengths..
And new level? You mean there’s a level higher than three WS in five years that’s attainable by adding just one player to that roster?
Except the giants are far removed from 3 WS in 5 yrs…
So when you look at the CURRENT level the giants have been at, yes, 1 player could indeed take SF to a higher level than they have been in some time, OP is correct.
It would suck but I can’t say much about winning and losing because it was out of the control of everyone. I just appreciate the Dodgers going for it.
The trade should be undone but it won’t. MLB will probably implement a compensation system for all players with 1 year left on contracts that will give extra compensation for players who leave.
Whether it’s the dodgers or the Red Sox the minute the mlb and mlbpa agreed players would be compensated service time based on 2019 a lot of teams were f’d over.
Phillies are only going to get 1 year of realmuto when they paid for 2 years.
Yankees are all but certain to see Stanton opt in to his deal, little doubt he would of opted out before but this all but seals the deal; small chance he would of opted out had he had a monstrous 2020.
A lot of 2 year deals signed in 2019 suddenly are 1 year deals.
All teams lose an arb year on players.
Just cause the dodgers were hurt more doesn’t mean they should get a redo; you’d have to give everybody a redo on a signing or trade they thought they’d be getting more out of plus rescind an arb year.
The Dodgers are not the only teams that acquired one year of a player. And sorry a global pandemic should give way to a scenario like this. If the biggest issue of this is about previously acquired players who already played for teams thats absolutely nothing. Im not saying give them 10 first round picks lol. Just an extra comp pick.
This could go down as one of the worst trades of the 2010-2019 time line if Betts never plays a game for the dodgers.
I know you’re a Padres fan so you are deprived of talent and therefore overvalue the heck out of prospects but thats not likely going to happen. Verdugo is a nice player but his ceiling is basically what he was last year and the Dodgers have plenty of OF depth. Downs has to do something significant at the MLB level before we even consider this the worst trade of the decade. A healthy Price may very well be beter than any player the Dodgers gave up.
Tatis Jr, Paddack, Gore, Patino, etc say otherwise. But sure. Justify it however you need to in order to cope with reality. Please waste your time trying to find flaws with each one of them. There’s a chance, however big or small, that Betts doesn’t suit up for the dodgers in 2020. And yes I probably do overvalue prospects. Mainly because Padres don’t spend what the dodgers spend. But we both have the same number of world series in the mean time.
Dodgers could have gotten more out of Verdugo Downs Wong than just David Price.
You can find fault with Verdugo Downs Wong but like most fans you’d be first to scream HOF if they were still a dodger and 1st to scream they aren’t that good once traded. I’m sure if we dug through old trade rumors involving verdugo you’re adamant about dodgers keeping him. Funny how narratives and opinions change after the fact.
Verdugo really isn’t that good. Not much power, attitude problems, and already injury prone. He started to struggle and come back down to earth before he got hurt l.And Wong is a back-up at the major league level. Losing Downs is the only one that hurts.
Thats 4 players lmao. I’ll add Abrams and make it 5 but 3 of them are prospects so thats volatile to say the least. There are plenty of worse trades this decade if you really want to go through some. As for lost value they could have traded for someone else, that applies to every team in baseball at some point and is way too vauge of a focus for judging this deal. I loved Downs but in order for this to be the worst deal of the decade he has to actually do something in the show. Its going to take more than “lost value”. He wasnt exactly the #2 prospect in baseball like that bust JP Crawford….Dodgers didn’t drop 300 million on Machado or 140 on a below average 1B. We got our elite 1B on a minor league deal lol.
Hahaha,
Dodgers fan- guys hold prison td at too high a level
Padres fan- nuh uhhhh (then proceeds to prospects)
Prospects, not prison
@All American Johnsonville Dogs Padres are going to have to part with at least one of those guys to divorce themselves from Myers, eventually.
Also, one is going to consider “one of the worst trades” because of the circumstance. The trade was made when everyone figured there would be baseball
Wtf!
Yeah let’s blame LA for not for seeing the biggest pandemic- and political failure- in the last 50 years before pulling off a trade. Hahaha that’s the dumbest take on this site of everyone hoping the dodgers get screwed over
to act like this is a win for Boston doesnt make sense. the main reason they traded Betts was to get under the lux tax, not any other reason.
They also traded for damage goods in Verdugo
yeah but the main reason the trade was made was for cap concerns. Verdugo was obviously a nice add, (health willing) but he was just more of a balancing factor.
I wonder if this will cause the dodgers to try even harder to resign him now.
I think they’ll offer what they were going to offer before. If they lose to another team, they’ll go after someone else (just probably not Springer). I’d put the odds of Mookie signing with the Dodgers at about 40% right now, but there will be other teams making big offers and he seems to be after the money, which is his right.
If the season gets wiped and Betts goes back to Boston that would honestly be hilarious
Betts won’t be going back to Boston. They still have to reset the luxury tax.
Betts as Cubs leadoff man next year would be awesome
But they’re “broke”
They’re not broke the owners are cheap. They net value is 3.2 billion dollars. Nearly 4 times what they paid for the team 8 years ago.
The Cubs dont need Mookie Betts
That might be why he put broke in quotation marks.
I don’t see Betts’ contract working out long term. As a Cubs fan I want nothing to do with that
I would not want to be a free agent this off-season. Most owners were crying poor even before the lockdown
The article alluded to an interesting question about what happens to qualified offers if the season is canceled or even goes mostly unplayed. Betts would probably get one even if he broke his arm, but a lot of players on the bubble most likely aren’t getting one.
I believe the Dodgers are committed to keeping Betts long term. I know they have traded for guys then let them go but don’t see that with a player like Betts. It’s clearly Betta decision to make but I think the Dodgers will make it hard for him to leave and throw whatever it takes his way to keep him. Friedman loves the guy
Who doesn’t love Betts? Keeping him in LA always assumed a massive policy change on free agent commitments. It would be nice to think it could happen in this case, but I wouldn’t expect it. This situation changes everything but how is the big unknown.
The Red Sox on the installment plan. Quick, let’s have a fund raiser for poor John Henry!
STOP READING. YOU WON’T CARE ABOUT WHAT I’M ABOUT TO SAY:
In my MLB The Show 20 road to the show game (where you create a player and play through their career and don’t control the teams or other players) I was drafted by the Red Sox. I noticed that in 2020 Mookie won the WS with the Dodgers and then resigned with the Red Sox, pulling a Chapman. I don’t see it working out that well for everyone involved in real life but I’m sure the Red Sox aren’t complaining either way
Sarcasm alert!
Theoretically… do the red sox still do the trade if they know there is no season? Plus side the prospects they got. Downside all the negative press plus they cannot spend real money again next year.
Absolutely
Betts would still have left. RS offered 10 yr $300 million and he countered 12 yr $420 million. If he was the least bit serious then that is way to big a gap to bridge. Three Dodgers players is better than a fourth round pick.
Its not gonna be cancelled. June start at the latest.
Here’s hoping. I wouldn’t be surprised if they started in July, but I’d be very surprised if there wasn’t a season at all.
They’ll do streaming games from an empty stadium before canceling everything
This thread is basically most other teams fans laughing at the dodgers potential suffering. Wow
I would think if the whole season is canceled mlb will give some type of draft pick comp for guys who are losing FAs.
But let’s address the other angle, Price is a 16M a year pitcher in the NLW. He had a 3.00 era in the ALE in the year of the home run until some old guy who forgot how to shave his mustache starting talking smack and he pitched injured. He’s still a very good pitcher that’s being massively undersold
Next seasons done too
yeah that’s just lunacy to say at this point
Although it is extremely unlikely Betts (out of good faith) could sign a one year deal with LA. If there is no season. Teams like LA in this situation, should be compensated by MLB if the player walks. Doesn’t seem fair but that’s life. I know, keep dreaming.
The season isn’t going to be canceled
I agree, I don’t think that it will be cancelled.
The season will not be cancelled. The economy is on the verge of reopening. The decision has been made. The closing of the economy for much longer will stop most food production. The Federal Reserve Governors have explained this and we have to be all tested daily and reopen. The alternative, to stay in lockdown, is worse than the pandemic itself.
Looking for a true statement in this and just not finding it.
Here’s the information:
Quarantining is an inefficient way of a tackling coronavirus, says St. Louis Fed’s Bullard
marketwatch.com/story/quarantining-is-an-inefficie…
We can’t stay closed for much longer..
Here’s what Forbes had to say:
IMF Sees Deepest Slump Since Great Depression—And Worrisome ‘Cracks’ In Financial System
forbes.com/sites/pedrodacosta/2020/04/14/imf-sees-…
So the trade-off is that not reopening is very likely much worse than reopening the economy.
A very bitter pill to swallow for the elderly and weak.
We aren’t killing off “the elderly and the weak” fast enough for you, as we?
Your comment is based on the false premise that there are only two options: 1. Remaining under stay at home orders indefinitely 2. Full blown reopening of everything and going back to normal life
The most likely scenario imo involves a partial and gradual reopening, this scenario would not have room for baseball that has crowds or baseball at all
Wander Franco was not projected to make his MLB debut in 2020.
He was by Baseball America.
That makes Baseball America look pretty dumb. He just turned 19 and hasn’t even played a game in AA. It would’ve taken quite a bit for the Rays to call him up midseason (elite performance, a playoff hunt, big league injuries, etc.) instead of manipulating his service time.
so? Soto rose pretty quickly and wasn’t even the #1 prospect at the time. Franco has the ability to rise pretty quickly. the outlets I saw said he’d probably be at least ready by some time this year. only thing holding him back is service time.
It’s not about ability or being ready. He clearly has the ability, and he probably will be ready this year. That doesn’t mean he’s getting called up.
Juan Soto is exactly what I described in my original post:
1. Put up video game numbers in the minors with a 1.200+ OPS in 2018 (elite performance)
2. Played for a team expected to win the division
3. Played for a team dealing with MANY big league injuries – Eaton recovering from ankle surgery, Goodwin dealing with a wrist injury, Robles recovering from an elbow injury, Bautista’s season-ending knee surgery, and Kendrick’s season-ending ruptured Achilles
Again, it’s possible he gets called up, but it shouldn’t be the expectation. Even if everything goes perfectly like it did for Soto, you have to also keep in mind that Franco plays for the penny-pinching Rays, not the luxury tax paying Nats. Service time is the name of the game here.
And now, I’ll repeat my original point – It would take quite a bit for the Rays to call him up midseason (elite performance, a playoff hunt, big league injuries, etc.) instead of manipulating his service time.
I’m sure the Dodgers will “weather the storm” of getting only David Price and $32m out of 3 prospects, Betts or no Betts. In fact, trading 3 prospects for $32m and a decent, yet aging pitcher isn’t that bad a deal for any team.
When the possibility of an MLB pandemic shut down was being talked about, my first thought was the Dodgers. Assuming MLB doesn’t cancel the trade, and I really don’t think they will, the Dodgers got screwed. I’m a Braves fan that is annoyed about our situation with Ozuna and to a lesser extent Hamels but the Dodgers losses on this look much worse because of the loss of Downs and Lux.
Gavin Lux is a Dodger
Oops. Meant Verdugo.
Already mentioned this back in February. Mini goats attacked me saying that I was crazy. No my little goats now I’m looking like I was correct and the season is in jeopardy. Again, back in February I said the Red Sox big time while the Dodgers made a huge imbecile trade
So you got lucky that the whole world shut down, the economy crashes, millions get sick and thousands to hundreds of thousands die? Wow! Good for you. Nobody cares what you said or say you said. In case you live in a bubble, this is no time to be trying to take a victory lap.
Dodgers didn’t lose anyone of value
That’s just wrong. They lost 3 players of value. It’s not just about what Verdugo, Downs, and Wong could do while playing for the Dodgers; it’s also about what they could’ve brought back for the Dodgers in a different trade. They all have plenty of value.
You being right is complete happenstance unless you are selling yourself as a prophet. No matter what someone thinks of this trade, the only way Covid 19 can even be used in an evaluation is to simply acknowledge the misfortune of the Dodgers. That is nobodies fault.
The “goat” man “knows more” and speaks, unfortunately.
You’re celebrating the worst national pandemic in the last 50-100 years, because one of your stupid opinions online was sorta right, even though the season isn’t canceled at all? …Wow
On the other hand, since the driver of this deal was to get Boston under the luxury tax to reset for 2021, that goal is frustrated by cancelling 2020. If there was any chance of the Sox signing Betts as a FA, it’s gone now.
I hate this hypothetical so much because at its core the words baseball and cancelled are being discussed. I like the idea of playing in Arizona, Florida or both and when the playoffs roll around in October…maybe? fans in the stands? I’m wondering how MINOR LEAGUE baseball is going to proceed since a lot of the spring training stadiums were used for rookie ball. Seems like there is quite a lot to sort out!
Seems pretty simple. Just like spring training, you use multiple fields and play multiple games a day at the same stadium…
We are a long ways away from canceling the season, how about we all stop with the Dodgers trolling, Red Sox trolling, and just wait and see what happens in the upcoming months..
People trolling, complaining, and arguing over playing the what if game really need to just get over it and appreciate that we might still have a season..
The Dodgers will NO DOUBT extend Betts. They love him and they will not let him go and will trade any depth for areas of need, the pen. They want Betts to be one of there top 5 along with Kershaw, Bellinger, Buehler and Lux
Got any hot stock tips too?
Short Bitcoin.
Buy Gold.
Buy U.S. Treasury Bills (Treasury Direct).
treasurydirect.gov/
Lol, Buy small caps with good balance sheets, gold is GARBAGE and Bitcoin is way more valuable
It was a joke. You didn’t get it.
Abbott, GSK
I think MLB should give teams extra time to work out on contract with players on one year deals who have not played for the team yet if the season is cancelled i.e Mookie Betts, Marcell Ozuna, Didi Gregorious
I kind of like that idea. I think it might be wise for Betts and others to sign a one year deal with their current team and come back on the market when their value has increased. It’s only one year and while it’s a risk, imagine the fans clamoring to spend money on baseball next year if 2020 is cancelled. There will be good will because baseball did the right thing instead of some partial season money grab.
With all that’s going on who cares about these mega millionaires. Shut it completely down and talk to us next year MLB.
Not to mention the other way every team and player gets screwed should the season be cancelled: virtually every player will age a full year, bringing them that much closer to their retirement (and ultimatelydeath) without achieving anything at all.
On the bright side, guys who are recovering from surgeries wouldn’t see any difference.
With the new CBA next year service time as we currently know it is going to change radically after the 21′ season.. Fewer years of team control (2-3)…
wait and see, wait and see
IMHO there’s almost zero chance the entire 2020 season gets canceled.
Based on what science or is this just a WAG? I personally have no idea what will happen but I would not say that the odds of not having a season are near zero, no more than I would say that there is a near zero chance that we have a season. There is no evidence to back either extreme position at this point. Before I move off my position I need to hear a healthcare/public health official say what it will take to safely move toward normalcy. THAT will change my position one way or the other.
That is your honest opinion but it is also a guess and to be honest it is not the odds you are stating here “zero chance”
I guess if there’s a silver lining to the season being canceled, it would be the Dodgers misfortunes
I asked crazy questions, maybe someone can help me by answering this.
What mlb does with this Cbt penalty monies?
Also what do they do when they penalize a player x ammount of money what does the league does with those funds? Thanks
Betts is NOT coming back to Boston…he turned down 10yrs 300mill and asked for 12yrs 420mill lmao he is NOT wirth that let him go to the highest bidder…
Since MLB teams will be getting less revenue (no fans in the stands and no concessions for at least part of the shortened season… if there is a season), then will that translate into smaller FA offers…..to the point that Betts is offered less than 10year $300 million.
Many MLB fan’s discretionary spend money has been cut to zero for quite some time Into the future meaning that there may be a lot less people in the stands when ball parks do open up to fans. Less fans means smaller budgets…..
i wish