There’s a lot of time left to assess the 2020-21 free agent class. It would help to have, y’know, some actual baseball to help inform. But in the absence of that, we can still make some assessments based upon what we already know.
Scanning the upcoming group of open-market starters, there’s no clear top arm. It’s certainly possible that one or more hurlers will significantly boost his stock with a big (partial) 2020 season, as we’ve seen in recent years from guys like Zack Wheeler and Patrick Corbin. But it’s pretty clear we’re not going to see another $200MM+ pitcher in the upcoming offseason.
There’s necessarily some serious guesswork here, but let’s see what the MLBTR readership anticipates. Here are the candidates we’ll consider … which is likeliest to be the top free agent starter? (In alphabetical order below, randomized in the poll.)
- Trevor Bauer: Well, we just gave you our best early guesses on camera. There’s no denying the upside here, as exhibited in his monster 2018 season. Bauer has all the necessary tools and is a curious craftsman when it comes to driving improvement. With a strong showing, he could be chased by quite a few contenders that find appeal in the idea of a rental ace.
- Mike Minor: The results have been quite good and Minor’s health issues have faded. Perhaps his two lost seasons (2015-16) can even be spun as a bit of an advantage, in that he wasn’t logging mileage on his arm in that span.
- Jake Odorizzi: Here’s a hurler that is easy to overlook. Odorizzi is coming off of a 3.51 ERA campaign and can’t be issued another qualifying offer.
- James Paxton: With a long layoff, Paxton has had an opportunity to rest his surgically repaired back. That could help him more than any other player on this list.
- Jose Quintana: Steady production. Excellent durability. He was probably somewhat unfortunate to post below-average results in 2019.
- Robbie Ray: Probably the favorite for top dog status … and yet … the strikeout numbers are gaudy, but so are the walk rates. And Ray hasn’t consistently turned swings and misses into output. He owns a 4.11 ERA and landed higher than that mark in 2019.
- Garrett Richards: When he’s healthy, he’s usually pretty awesome. Richards is recovered from Tommy John surgery and well-rested.
- Marcus Stroman: It’s possible we’re not hyping Stroman enough. He just turned in 32 starts of 3.22 ERA ball.
- Masahiro Tanaka: Through his six years in the majors, Tanaka has run up over a thousand frames of 3.75 ERA pitching.
- Other: There’s a case that you’d be best off betting on the field. There are some talented arms out there who could launch back into big-contract status with a strong showing in 2020. Among them: Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman, Taijuan Walker, Michael Wacha, Jimmy Nelson, Anthony DeSclafani, Cole Hamels, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, etc.
Who’s the favorite to be the market leader? (Poll link for app users.)
In terms of earning power, I think Stroman has the best chance to get the most years at the best price, In terms of whos the best pitcher? I think on a per inning basis, we’re talking Paxton vs Ray
I don’t think stroman gets the best deal, i think he will struggle.
If you chose anything other than Bauer you’re wrong.
Bauer is 70-60 with a 4.04 ERA. I am not impressed
and if you remove the outlier 2018 season its nearly 4.40. i think if he preforms again this year like he did last year he’d be a fool not to accept a QO, but if he looks like 2018 or even kinda close you have teams lining up with huge one year offers. i think if he’s on the market now he contends with these guys in AAV simply because he wants only one year, but is he goes multiple he might not even sniff top 3 here. only reason he gets close is you have a lot of teams that could be suckers in thinking he’ll be his 2018 self in 2021.
Using W/l record. I am not impressed.
Dray16 – I guess the numbers do not support your assertion
Bauer was fantastic in 2018 and a #3 starter the rest of his career. He ain’t that good.
Not to mention, hes been pretty clear that he intends to go year to year. Hell prolly have highest aav, but I doubt he has most total money.
1-2 top pitchers will be on angels payroll in 2021!
if you want total earnings, i feel like it might be Odo. Assuming Bauer goes one year, rest of the market has injury or consistency issues. I feel like Odo is plus in both respects and isnt terribly old. no QO helps him as well.
Stroman i think is very close in these regards, though he does have injury issues and doesnt seem to rebound quickly from them.
I think the free agent market will have a total reset due to this year (possibly) not being played. If I am a free agent I take the QO.
Bauer has only had one year where he showed “ace” potential. Every other year he’s been a number 3 starter at best.
With revenue down this year it will be interesting to see: 1. how much lower the FA offers are 2. If it affects the length of contracts. 3. If more FAs actually start taking the qualifying offer ( in the beginning of QO no one accepted it, but the last few year it has had a few who have finally started using it). 4. Impact starting pitchers are in such short supply that they should do better than relievers, and position players
The Angels better get 1 or 2 of these guys, and the phillies get one as well. I could see Tanaka with the angels, Stroman or Bauer in philly.
honestly I wasnt a Stroman fan before but in looking back at his stats i like him more. I had thought he had more bad years but really only 2018 was a bad year for him. I like either Tanaka or Stroman in Philly. Tanaka simply appeals to mean because he has experience in a smaller park, but Stroman is probably the better bet.
Good pitchers here, no doubt. Problem with both teams, especially Phillies is that you’ve got to be able to develop your own guys. Past 2-3 offseasons, the Phillies have tried to trade/sign a core.
Yes, if you’ll need free agents and trades, which are easier to get if you’re a big market, but you can point to a homegrown core of almost every World Series champion.
2019 Nationals: 3 of 5 pitchers w/ 10+ starts acquired via free agency
2018 Red Sox: 5 of 7 pitchers w/ 10 + starts acquired via trade, 1 via free agency
2017 Astros: 3 of 7 pitchers w/ 10+ starts acquired via trade, 1 via free agency, 1 waiver claim
2016 Cubs: 3 of 5 pitchers with 10+ starts acquired via free agency, 2 via trade
2015 Royals: 3 of 6 pitchers with 10+ starts acquired via free agency, 1 via trade
2014 Giants: Ah, there we go. Bumgarner, Lincecum, Cain, and technically Vogelsong.
angels won’t sign tanaka, ohtani wanted to be sole japanese pitcher with the team he signed.
Ohtani rules the Angels front office with an iron fist, Vizionaire? I’m sure you are being sarcastic. Nobody would be dumb enough to actually believe what you said is true. Because even if that was his initial motivation to sign in Anaheim, he has new goals two years later; to win.
when there are better pitchers you can sign why bother, dumdum?
I’m going full homer here, but I chose Minor. Not only did he get to 200 innings for only the second time in his career, but he was also top 10 in CY Young voting. I will stay that there was a turning point for him last season, and it came in an average night game against the Angels right before the all-star break. At that point Minor was around a 2.50 era, and he already had his first complete game shutout of his career earlier in the season. But I swear, every single hitter in that Angels lineup got to a 3-2 count, and he was out by the 5th, he gave up 4 runs, and ever since that point in the season he was on a GRADUAL decline. Still very good, but just not “super-caliber ace form”.
Nice analysis. Minor was overlooked on a national basis last year because he played for Texas. If he had that same first half on an east coast team he would’ve gotten more mention.
Still don’t think he has enough track record to be the top guy of next off season but his agent has some really nice selling points.
Whoever is the healthiest and most effective over the previous 2-3 seasons will prove to be the best free agent. That is all.
If fully healthy and has as productive a season as he had 2 years ago in 16 starts (70 IP/86Ks – 3.66 ERA) then I think Richards would wind up being the best available P. At least in terms of season-to-season production. Or if Stroman has a full season like the first half of last season — then he could be the runaway best P available. I actually voted for Bauer though and think — if everyone plays to their averages… he’ll probably be the most attractive P on the open market. I do think Bauer’s phenomenal season 2 years ago was somewhat out an outlier — one need only look at the prior several campaigns in which he finished with 4.00+ ERAs to determine that. Overall I think Bauer is at best a mid 3.00s ERA Pitcher — but given the overall lack of a true ace in the free agent class — that and his potential upside of putting up another stellar 2.20 ERA season probably make him the “best P available in the class”
Paxton is the best of the bunch but he needs to come close to a healthy season before he gets multiple years.
For the sake of durability, Tanaka would be my choice – would be a good 3-4-5 starter for almost any team with a budget.
GMs love upside more than anything. And every organization thinks they have the right coach or technology to mold that upside into something great.
So, while I’d love the quiet production of Stroman added to my squad, I think GM’s will dream big on Bauer and Ray. Both have upside but little to no injury history.
Paxton is great when healthy but a balky back is nothing to bet on. Tanaka’s elbow is just too close to Ohtani’s scenario for this Angels fan.
The Yankees have at least 2 FA starting pitchers (Paxton & Tanaka) and possibly Happ depending on how his vesting option is calculated. Paxton and Tanaka will certainly get QO’ers from the Yankees and possibly even Happ might. I think Happ getting a QO depends on how well Montgomery performs when they return. The Yankees do have several solid pitchers waiting in the wings for the 2021 season: Loaisiga, German, Schmidt & Deivi Garcia.as well as Severino returning about July 1, 2021 from TJS.
Definitely not Quintana! He’s been rather mediocre since being traded to the Cubs.
Trevor Bauer to Oakland to replace/upgrade Fiers – he joins a contender and gets to beat the trashstros a whole bunch AND end their reign as West frontrunners while playing in a pitcher friendly home park. A’s love 1 year deals with pitchers, even though Montas, Luzardo and Puk might outperform him, so that’s less pressure on Bauer to be a “true ace”. Perfect match.
Hoping the Angels re-sign Garrett Richards. His first turn around the organization left so many fans pondering, “What if?”
Of this list, Richards, at one time, had the highest ceiling. Love to see him back. Would suck for the Padres who invested a decent amount for absolutely nothing in return due to injuries. My gut tells me it’s a two team race for his services with the Padres getting the first opportunity. 60-40%, Padres. Hope they’re annoyed that they paid him and got nothing in return opening the door for my Angels.