We’re all pining for the return of baseball. It’d be nice to watch, especially in these trying times. More than anything, though, the start of play would mean that we’ve achieved some amount of control over the spread of the coronavirus — and, perhaps, that there’d be an end in sight to the suffering it has wrought. In the meantime, we join all those around the world in honoring the brave health care professionals, first responders, logistical employees, and others who are doing everything they can to sustain us.
- The unfolding tragedy is particularly acute in New York, the present American epicenter of the COVID-19 crisis. Baseball is an afterthought. Any hope of playing it will depend upon addressing the broader public health need, as Yankees reliever Zack Britton acknowledges (via MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM, on Twitter). “At the end of the day,” he says of talk regarding the scheduling of the 2020 season, “it doesn’t matter until the virus gets under control and cities and people are able just to go back to everyday life, let alone being able to go and watch baseball or us play baseball.” Getting to a point where the spread is manageable seems an obvious prerequisite for sports, even if played without fans. But the league and union are rightly thinking ahead and trying to plan to move back online as soon as possible. Britton says the sides have already begun considering potential neutral sites to stage games, potentially providing alternative venues that could be utilized as needed. The unnamed locations would have the sorts of playing, lodging, and other facilities required to make play possible.
- We’ve seen many MLB players pitch in financially and otherwise. They’re also quite understandably thinking of the needs of their families. Veteran Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka has headed back to his native Japan with his wife and child while waiting for baseball to resume, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com reports. Tanaka says he felt in “danger” in Florida, where the virus is a growing threat. He also chose against returning to the home he maintains in New York. (There is at least a touch of baseball-specific news on the Yankees’ pitching staff, as we covered here yesterday.)
- Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has revealed that one employee of the team has tested positive for COVID-19, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic tweets. The unnamed employee was not on hand at the club’s spring facility during camp; rather, he or she was stationed in St. Louis. MLBTR extends its best wishes for a quick and full recovery. Fortunately, that seems to be just what occurred for legendary former Cardinals and Angels outfielder Jim Edmonds. As Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes, Edmonds ended up in the hospital for pneumonia and ultimately tested positive for COVID-19. But he’s thankfully already on the mend.
- It’s always worth highlighting the good acts that take place in times of crisis. As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, the Rays have initiated some assistance to local charity Feeding Tampa Bay, promising $100K and another $150K in matching funds to help spur a food drive. The Feeding Tampa Bay executive director calls it a “tremendous gift.” Meanwhile Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy is the latest veteran player to make a sizable financial commitment. He’s giving $100K to a “family assistance fund” to assist minor-leaguers who support children or other family members. More on that initiative here.
8ManLineupNoPitcherNoDH
2020 season will be cancelled. Sad, but looking more likely with each passing day…
puigpower
2020 season will not be canceled.
Nego
Except that it will
thetruth 2
Nope. Too much money involved and this quarantine is only to flatten the curve.
MoRivera 1999
thetruth
There’s more to this than the economy.
The top officials who release the shelter in place and social distancing orders will face the music of the death rate. By your own numbers, 1% of the population is/will be infected (10MM people) and 3% of them are dying/will die, Well, once the entire population is accounted for, that’s 300,000 PEOPLE DYING. By YOUR numbers. And you use these numbers as if they are minuscule. As if they are acceptable. Well they are not acceptable. That’s SIX TIMES VIETNAM. SIX TIMES. That’s a disaster. No top official wants to live with that on their record or their conscience, regardless of the impact to the economy.
If we dodge the bullet with our measures and cut your numbers significantly, great. Until then we have to stay the course and hope for the best. Probably even more states need to go to shelter in place orders.
impapad17
Math… US population is roughly 330 million people. 1% of that number is about 3.3 million people (not 10 million as you mentioned). 3% of that is about 100,000 people (not 300,000 as you said). And the actual death rate is actually lower than 3%, so 100,000 deaths would be on the high end… still not acceptable, but far lower than your calculation.
MoRivera 1999
AH! I did 3% infected, 3% die instead of 1% infected, 3% die. Others repeated the mistake below. I’ll cop to that. Good eye.
live42day
It won’t be cancelled. Trump met with sports leaders today and is going to clear the way for the start of the season without fans by July and regular season will end Oct 31st
drew ford
I hope you are social distancing.
thetruth 2
It’s illegal not to but in reality is meaningless. I suggest you google what experts are saying will happen once quarantines are over. In other words the real solution is to quarantine at risk populations and let the rest get herd immunity. Quarantining everyone is creating more problems and in fact worsening the disease.
Vizionaire
sweden is only experimenting the strategy. no one knows the outcome yet.
MoRivera 1999
thetruth
“I suggest you google what experts are saying will happen once quarantines are over. In other words the real solution is to quarantine at risk populations and let the rest get herd immunity. ”
Except that’s not what medical experts are saying. Try connecting with the top hospital administrators and medical researchers in the nation. They are not saying or doing anything you preach. What they will say or do once the curve flattens is not even on the table. We have no idea what they will say we should do in order to keep COVID contained. ESPECIALLY not you.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Why do you continue to offer strong opinions on things you do not understand? Please stop and go back to being an armchair GM of your favorite teams.
datrain021
I think it is way too early to say if it will be cancelled or not. Let’s see where everything is May 1st and then we should have a better idea if the season is possible
Rangers29
Yeah, I’m expecting people to be surprised when this thing clears up around early to mid May, and then we can have a short Spring training. Then start the season June, 1.
fair-critic
writing is on the wall dude, next 2 announcements are 1) Boston sanctions which follow announcement 2) cancellation of season. thats why they keep figuring out luxury tax and suspensions to reflect a cancelled season
thetruth 2
No it won’t. There’s literally no chance that it will.
MoRivera 1999
The expert epidemiologists are projecting a return to “normal” by June 15th or so. It’s unclear what leading medical professionals will be suggesting/deciding should be done to maintain that level of COVID containment. If they suggest/decide that a resumption of normal activity is acceptable, then there will probably be a resumption of baseball sometime in July after a shortened Spring Training. That IF is not a given, but IF it is true then there is one truth you (and others here) will have on your record.
I’m not going there and predicting a resumption of play because I can’t presume to know what the leading officials will decide with regard to COVID containment. If we achieve normalcy with extreme measures, how do we proceed to maintain that normalcy? I don’t know.
nowheretogobutup
Wow its evident you’re not watching the daily news from CDC and WHO and the Surgeon General, your are showing your ignorance from what your speaking. If there is baseball maybe at best it will resume in August for two months, however 40000 fans in a stadium sitting next to each other could have a catastrophic outcome even in August. For that reason baseball owners, the Union, MLBPA will all be responsible if they allow baseball to return to early and the virus starts spreading from baseball or through contact at games.
For that reason I don’t see anyway there will be baseball in 2020. Forget about the economic impact its a life or death pandemic and that has no measure of financial return.
Dom2
I come here for something positive in my day then i read comments like this.
sangroazul
coming here for something positive was your first mistake… (but I do agree with you though fwiw).
nowheretogobutup
The truth hurts, if you want a positive spin or a laugh watch the Three Stooges, laughter does help at least that’s what they say
Afk711
So South Korea and China can get back to sports but not us? lol.
MoRivera 1999
They have flattened the curve to almost no new deaths per day. Our curve is still increasing by 19%-40% PER DAY with epidemiologists still projecting a huge spike in April. We are not out of the woods. We need to see how social distancing and shelter in place work. So far, not so good. See the difference?
its_happening
You’re having faith in accurate information out of China and Korea? Ok there…
Afk711
You don’t think we will get there in a few months when its been the same amount of time here? You can have whatever opinion about the US you want but don’t pretend were some 3rd world country that can’t get to the same place other countires have.
MoRivera 1999
WeAreAllJustGuestsHere
China and South Korea were very forthcoming when they were way out front and the worst in the world. And scientific communities tend not to lie. And neither country wants to resume exceptional increases in cases or deaths after having tackled them with extreme measures far greater than ours, which we have not yet undertaken, and almost assuredly never will. Because freedumb. They are proceeding with sports VERY cautiously. So yeah, I believe them.
its_happening
Then you are a fool. They have been anything but forthcoming since this entire ordeal began. But please feel free to continue your shortsighted ignorance on this topic. We need entertainment and sports sure can’t provide that right now. We’ll settle for your rhetoric.
MoRivera 1999
There was a delay on the outset because it is common in the scientific to pause and verify data before reporting, especially when reporting something shocking. There is a strong tendency to get it right. Once they started reporting they were all over it. Stop with the Faux News anti-China crap. You’re embarrassing yourself.
getright11
Mo4ever you’re a moron
MoRivera 1999
No but you are getright. My wife is an actual scientist. You’re not.
tribepride17
I have some faith in South Korea’s numbers but China’s just don’t make sense. Taiwan and Japan also seem to be doing great
tribepride17
I definitely think it would have been beneficial if the CDC wasn’t denied the ability to inspect the situation in China after repeated requests. It’s not that they completely lied but they led the west to believe it was more of SARS-1 type disease. This thing just took off everywhere in March to the shock of the EU too. WHO dropped the ball a little bit too but the entire west just wasn’t prepared for a pandemic like many south Asian countries.
tribepride17
Yeah I think that’s premature still. The models I’ve seen lately from the University of Washington make me optimistic that we can see “summer” training games without fans sometime in mid June. Obviously these models haven’t been so reliable thus far but we are getting more reliable info everyday so hopefully we can see some action sooner rather than later. I’m in favor of shortened season though. Baseball in December doesn’t seem right and it would shorten the offseason too much.
mike156
It’s quite bad here in New York, and playing baseball is probably functionally impossible. Most people who go to the Yankees and Mets go by mass transit, and that just cannot happen right now., or even a month from now. As to playing in an empty stadium, I’m not sure how you can do that without exposing players to infection, regardless, and once one is infected, it’s hard to see how it doesn’t spread through the team. I don’t know if the season will be cancelled, but New York is particularly unsuited to a resumption until the virus is eradicated.
thetruth 2
Not really it’s more annoying than bad. Very very few people are in actual danger of dying based on statistics. Over 80% of infected will not even have serious symptoms. In fact many professors say that quarantining is only making things worse and that a herd immunity is a better option. The virus is also never going to be eradicated, as it’s literally impossible. They’re quarantining us to flatten the curve until they’re ready with more supplies. It’s also catastrophic financially. They will almost certainly not shut us down for more than another month. It’s just not financially feasible.
drew ford
Your optimism is what’s obviously keeping you going. I hope you are correct.
thetruth 2
Well thank you and I’m pretty sure I am as I have a lot of friends in the medical field and they’re all saying this. I think the best thing for us to do is follow the current guidelines but stay positive and not panic or over exaggerate the threat.
MoRivera 1999
drew ford
It’s not optimism. It’s stupidity.
MoRivera 1999
thetruth went from having two friends who were MEDICAL STUDENTS (general medicine, not specialized in fields appropriate to the discussion, like virology, infectious diseases or epidemiology) to “a lot of friends in the medical field” in just one short week. WOW!
mike156
Without getting into an extended debate with you, because you clearly have a point of view, New York City already has nearly 1400 deaths, and counting. More than “annoying”.
MoRivera 1999
thetruth
You keep spewing the same statistics. 1% infected, of which 3% will die. Well that’s 300,000 PEOPLE DYING. By your own numbers. That’s SIX TIMES VIETNAM. That’s unacceptable. That’s why social distancing and shelter in place orders are necessary. To avoid 300,000 DYING. And your numbers don’t factor in hospitals being overwhelmed. Then the death rate will spike and there are even more deaths than you calculated for. Why don’t you just STFU.
You have no friends in the medical field. You have two medical STUDENTS for friends, you liar. I have friends in the medical field. My wife is a department chair and medical researcher and she has hundreds of colleagues in the “medical field,” including those in infectious diseases and epidemiology. Epidemiologists disagree with you.
miltpappas
60 million affected by swine flu. 12,469 died. Nothing stopped. It’s all political.
MoRivera 1999
We will be dealing with more than 12,469 deaths from COVID. We are dealing with growth in the rate of deaths from one day to the next of 19% to 40%. We are already at 5,800 deaths. We should reach 12,469 by 4/7 or so. And that’s a few days before the spike predicted by top epidemiologists if social distancing and shelter in place don’t stop it. And that’s just 4/7. We have at least a couple of months to go after that. At a 19%-40% daily increase in the death rate until the projected peak, even without a huge spike, on May 12,, and deaths on the downhill thereafter, that’s a helluva lot of deaths.
RegularEd 2
Any number of deaths from COVID-19 here is too many but 3% death of 1% infected out of roughly 330MM people is 90K deaths, not 300K.
its_happening
RegularEd beat me to the punch there. The models say 100-240k, and Ed is correct with his math.
MoRivera 1999
Fair enough. I was rounding. It’s still roughly SIX TIMES VIETNAM, which was 54,000.
rocky7
Agreed and being a Yankee fan and living in North Jersey which is the current hotbed for the entire state, just don’t see any way in the coming months that baseball will resume, at least in the metro NY area anytime soon.
Also, there will be economic effects to going to a game given todays prices for tickets, travel (tolls across bridges and through tunnels) beer, hotdogs soda etc….the average family barely was able to afford it before, now that millions are out of work or furloughed indefinitely…doubt that attending a baseball game is going to be high on anybodys list over the next several months.
nowheretogobutup
Rocky, you hit the nail right on the head, your the first person here who has come forth with a logical response. Baseball is the farthest thing from most all families now. Most bloggers here are not married or have no kids or are retired with a average pension. The owners will need to drop tix prices by 50% along with food items to see a stadium half full. For this and other reasons
NO BASEBALL in 2020, not going to happen. Players don’t care their getting a full paycheck for doing nothing.
Afk711
Thats why its going to be empty stadium games for a bit. If it gets to a point where New Yorkers can’t use the subway or go in public deep into summer its going to be massive economic downturn.
drew ford
I don’t think there’s a way the season happens. This is still in the beginning stages. Stay away from people, folks. Don’t help make this last any longer.
thetruth 2
Of course there is. This isn’t in the beginning stages it’s in the end stages. First of all, we’re not being quarantined to stop the disease, we’re being quarantined to flatten the curve. There’s no way to stop it only contain it. Thing is many professors are saying that herd immunity is far better and it’s working in other countries like Sweden for example. The financial blow is so extreme, that it’s simply not feasible to keep us shut down for long. By next month they will lift quarantines and things will go back to normal. The vaccine will be here by end of year and we already have working cures now.
MoRivera 1999
Why is it every expert epidemiologist in the country disagrees with you? Hmmm? They are currently predicting an enormous spike around April 97h. We are currently on about a 45 degree curve and we are headed for an 80% curve if conditions don’t improve. Thanks god you are not involved in the decision-making. The decision-makers at every hospital in the nation are not reacting the way you are. They are reacting as if we are in the beginning of a pandemic. By June the worst may be over but a lot of people may be dead by then thanks to people like you.
Name your professors you coward. Name them. You keep hiding behind them, name them. You are NOBODY.
Baseball 1600
Can you shut up? You clearly have no information about this and are just spewing BS with your only source being “trust me, I know people in the field”
5 weeks ago you were probably the one saying that the MLB season would not be delayed and that the Corona Virus would not be a big deal.
JobuKnows
“Why can’t we all just get along?” -Jack Nicholson, Mars Attacks
nowheretogobutup
Wow theTruth you are a dreamer, I don’t care if you know 100 doctors this will not be normal in a month, thats pure ignorance.. If you think that’s the case I’d like to see you walking the streets in three weeks without a mask, going into countless stores, food places, etc. If you don’t get the virus then you could be a carrier and give it to someone else. Hello
MoRivera 1999
thetruth doesn’t know 100 doctors. He doesn’t know a single doctor with whom he has info from on COVID. He knows his GP, with whom he has not discussed COVID. He knows TWO MED STUDENTS. He boasted that a week ago. Now he says he knows LOTS of people in the “medical field,” presumably including DOCTORS now. At least that’s the implication. In one week he’s become well connected. At 25 years-old. During social distancing even! What a fraud.
Afk711
Its in the begining when 1 person in Washington state had it. Not when its spread to every state and basically every city has stay at home orders
MoRivera 1999
It is the beginning when the growth rate of cases is about 45% and the chart the epidemiologists have created shows an 80% growth rate starting around April 9th or 10th. Of course their predictions are a dynamic thing but I think we need to be preparing for what’s on the table right now. Hospitals are. Thankfully. But if that spike hits many hospitals will be overwhelmed and then the death rate spikes even more, beyond 3%.
Strike Four
If anything, MLB should be doing all it can to protect the -2021- season, not worrying about playing 30 games in Sept/Oct to crown a phony champion.
toycannon
Exactly. That is the truth.
its_happening
Clearly you’ve never worked. MLB has to protect 2021 AND the current 2020 season. We can’t be like you collecting EI living in a cardboard box. The door has to be open to do anything to boost what is a failing ecomony. Failure, something you can identify with Fourski.
MoRivera 1999
If tens or hundreds of thousands of people are dying I don’t think the economy will be what’s on people’s mind. Flattening the curve will be.
dirtbagfreitas
Olney reporting Hinch and Luhnow’s suspensions will count as served if there’s no 2020 season played. Unreal.
heater
Probably moot anyhow. They’ll likely get the Bonds treatment.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Not entirely. The “Bonds treatment” still allowed him to coach. Along with Cora and Beltran, they shouldn’t be allowed back in any official capacity.
Strike Four
Sports actually dont matter as much as we make them out to do.
They actually exist for us to ignore our real life problems.
Now those problems have finally caught up to us and we are paying the price for 4 decades of “saving money” by being less prepared.
On top of that we have a 2 week martial law plan we could easily end this whole thing with. No one other than doctors going to sick peoples houses are allowed to go outside for 14 days, period. That would keep the virus contained within houses, and we would know who had it. The virus would die on the outdoor surfaces within the 14 days, and we would be back to normal.
But we won’t do that, because we no longer believe in facts thanks to a President who won based on literally no platform other than “I’m this guy!”
America is categorically MUCH worse off after electing a non-politician, so his dumb slogan is a failure, just like 95% of his business deals.
One would hope this “time out” will return us back to the days of Jimmy Carter and politicians so boring and by the book it makes us not -have- to care about them, because we know responsible people are boring and therefore trustworthy.
I don’t ever want to see a millionaire/celebrity/egomanical politician ever again. Every President after Carter has been an absolute disgrace to this nation. Period.
fred-3
More like every president since Eisenhower or Kennedy has been a disaster
Dorothy_Mantooth
America is way too vast for the US to declare martial law and enforce it. No way everyone would stay in their homes. Have you seen the people on social media and these reality shows these days? They are morons and would defy the law just to be ‘cool’.
Rangers29
From Pokemon cards to Bayblades to My Space to Facebook to Tik Tok to spreading a deadly worldwide disease. The youth went from 0 – 100 real quick.
nowheretogobutup
Strike Four, Well its evident you haven’t read the employment reports this Pres. had before this pandemic he has the highest rating for employment, financial strength and draining the swamp of the far left socialist. He’ll be re elected why? because sleepy Joe will forget his name and we don’t need to go back to that era we had for eight years on our last Pres.
MoRivera 1999
The last Pres. was recovering from your Great Recession, the worst economy in 70 years. It took 13 years to recover from the Great Depression, less than half that to recover from your Great Recession. And that was with R’s in charge of Congress. Be thankful.
nowheretogobutup
I don’t get your thinking all I know is our economy has never been better after what the Pres. before this one did to subvert the economy and undermine our Constitution . Evidently you never served in the service and saw hundreds of thousands who died for our country. Semper Fi to all my fellow Marines.
MoRivera 1999
The current administration is not over yet. The last three R’s have ended in recession.
nowheretogobutup
All I know is Reagan ended a major recession from the peanut farmer, Bush took over a nightmare and Barack messed up big time he put us into a recession and typically blamed everyone but himself.
MoRivera 1999
Reagan ended in recession, Bush Sr ended in recession, and W ended in recession. Obama got us out of the worst economic downturn in 70 years, with the R’s fighting him tooth and nail to stop him.
The Human Rain Delay
Great post S4 – I thought Obama was great, but other than that agree on almost everything else, well said
Rangers29
Trump and Dr. Anthony Fauci said in their press conference the other day that starting now and going over the next two to three weeks was going to be the worst of it. I’d say right about April 10 will be the very peak of it all, and then it tapers off slowly from there.
Dorothy_Mantooth
Big Pharma is close to a treatment for COVID-19. Not a vaccine, but a treatment that helps mitigate the effects and to help stop it from staying contagious in hosts for so long. This will need to be approved and released in order for baseball to play this year IMO. Would still result in empty stadiums but at least they could play. Fingers crossed.
MoRivera 1999
All I hear about is hydroxychloroquine, and that is only in clinical trials in hospitals with those patients interested in taking it. It has side effects. Hospital administrators are cautiously optimistic at best. I’m pretty connected with the thinking and actions of top hospital officials and there staffs and what they are doing to deal with COVID and prepare for the spike that epidemiologists are predicting in another week or so. Like I said, all they’ve mentioned is Hydroxychloroquine. Problem with hydroxychloroquine is that it, like chloroquine, is currently used for other chronic diseases, like lupus. We don’t have supplies for both current uses and lots of new COVID cases. It’s unclear how quickly they could ramp up compounding.
Rangers29
I like how I say the name of our President, and then my comment has to await moderation.
mike156
I understand, but I get more than enough politics in just about every other forum. And I write about it as well. I want baseball here. I’ll talk about coronavirus as it relates to getting back to baseball. I’d rather not marinate myself with it here.
nowheretogobutup
I always tell those who rip our Pres. and want to vote socialism to go to Russia or China or North Korea for a month then come back if you’re not shot or jailed for telling a joke against their government.
whyhayzee
I’ve been friends for 50 years with a former president of the NJ Medical Society. My father was an MIT PhD in Biochemistry. My wife’s grandfather knew many prominent members of the Pennsylvania medical professions, some nationally known in their fields. I’ve been working with mathematical models for over 40 years. I’m not even going to pretend to say anything other than this is some serious **** going on. No one knows what is going to happen. Period. Any “experts” who say otherwise are nothing short of fools. I’ve been around really smart people all my life and if there’s one thing about them it’s that they know what they know and they know what they don’t know. Right now we don’t know. Just that it’s bad.
MoRivera 1999
I am pretty well connected with the medical research and hospital administration “fields” through my wife who is a department chair and medical researcher. We watch a daily video of daily meetings of the top officials in a major hospital and research healthcare system. It covers what the hospital is doing to deal with and prepare for COVID-19.
And you’re right. The epidemiologists are projecting a huge spike in cases (which drives the death rate) starting around April 9th or 10th. BUT they are quick to throw in a caveat about the impact of social distancing and shelter in place efforts. It’s an unknown. They may or may not be working.
Hospital administrators, to their credit, are preparing for the worst, though they know the absolute worst of the projections will pass beyond their abilities to provide care. But you’re right. It’s a crap shoot what will actually happen. I do think we should have answer as to whether or not we’ve dodged a bullet by somewhere in the 4/15 to 4/25 timeframe.
whyhayzee
My sister-in-law is a nurse at one of the hard hit hospitals in Bergen County. It’s a horrible job right now. I don’t know how these people do it. Incredible.
MoRivera 1999
I agree. Some of the New York hospitals are going through hell. They are being given one mask per week when they used to switch masks several times a day, after each patient. Scary conditions.
Ancient Pistol
Perhaps if experts stop announcing deaths rates at the high end of their model confidence intervals it wouldn’t look as bad. Give the average,
MoRivera 1999
You have no idea if experts are “announcing deaths rates at the high end of their model confidence intervals.” You’re just saying that because their projections are at the high end of YOUR confidence levels.
Ancient Pistol
No, you can look at many of the epidemiology models posted online. It’s their models not mine.
Ancient Pistol
This should help if you don’t believe me:
covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Also, those confidence interval bands are real big. I would feel uncomfortable publishing a time series forecast with bands that wide.
MoRivera 1999
I don’t see the source of that info. I have no idea who healthdata org is. The projections I’ve seen from the epidemiologists at the University of Pennsylvania (Ivy League) don’t look like any on that chart, though they do currently show a large spike in mid-April assuming conditions don’t change (i.e., a current spike in the daily death rate, which is currently fluctuating between 19-40% per day).
Even if you IGNORE the projected mid-April spike and just go with the projections of 1% of the populace infected and 3% of them dying you come up with 330,000 dying. That’s WITHOUT the spike. With the spike, whichever projection you go with, who knows what could happen. However you look at it, healthcare officials are right to push extreme measures.
MoRivera 1999
That’s a 19%-40% increase in total COVID deaths nationally from one day to the next.
Ancient Pistol
How are you going to get to 330,000 dead by mid-April when we’re at 5,700? New York only has about 500 a day.
worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
MoRivera 1999
Who said mid-April for 330K dead? 330K dead is what you come up with in total if you project 1% of the population infected and 3% of them dying. If you go with 1% dying then you get 110K dead, still a disaster.
Do you understand math? We do not increase by the same amount each day. We increase by a certain amount PLUS 19-40% each day. So the number of new deaths is increasing significantly each day. Yesterday it increased by about 900. A week ago that was about 90. A week from now it will be about 3,100. Two weeks from now it will be about 10,000. Per day. And that’s if we’re increasing by 19%. Which is our low end. The numbers climb exponentially.
I’m very familiar with that link.
Ancient Pistol
Wow! You’re a nasty one.
It seems you’re inferring an exponential growth curve with no limit which suggests we never stop the virus. But that’s not true. If the peak is in a week or so you’ll get no where near that.
Now go back to your bunker. You’re depressing.
MoRivera 1999
I’m basing it on the last couple of weeks of data. The death rate increases each day 19%-40%. It says nothing about me. It’s the data. Get it? Take yesterday’s increasee and add 19%-40%. Do that each day going forward.
You think we’re going to stop it in the next two weeks? Cause that’s all I projected there for you to get to 10K per day. All based on what’s already been happening. (I don’t think you get math.)
As for the 330,000K, yeah, I hope the social distancing and shelter in place work. I hope we flatten the curve way before then. I believe it can happen. But we have a lot of deniers ignoring the directions, so… we’ll see.
Ancient Pistol
Okay, one last time since you’re annoying (I’m only calling you this since you keep on with this disparaging “Do you understand math?” comment).
Your one problem is you are looking at early death increases to get to this 40% you keep harping. Sure, it can be that high but with such low counts the percent increase is always going to be high. If you go from 2 to 10 deaths that’s a real high number.
What you should do is look at more recent numbers since testing is more wide spread and accurate. So, the death toll for the 31st is 912 and the death toll for yesterday is 1049 which is about 15% going off the top of my head. These are probably a better gauge. So far today is up to 706 for the entire country.
Also, as a statistician who teaches at a university I would never tell my students to proceed with such hooky estimates when attempting to predict the future. One needs to use time series modeling to get a better point prediction on future forecasting.
nowheretogobutup
Only 500 a day, that’s 15000 a month, absolutely beyond what anyone of us should accept. These people all have families for the most part, young or old. Are they all adhering to what should be done to avoid contact with the people who carry the virus, how? by not going to group meetings or parties.
whyhayzee
Think about the national curve as the sum of numerous curves. There’s one for NYC, one for Louisiana, one for California and so forth. You can parse out the data geographically and decide on how many different distributions to consider combining. Some will have low growth at times, or high growth at times. These times will surely vary. As a combination, growth is very high. As one area drops off another accelerates. This can keep the combined curve steep for quite some time. Remember it’s not one curve, rather the aggregation of many curves that are changing very rapidly. There’s good reason to believe that hot spots will continue to pop up in new areas and contribute to the growth. The key idea I’m trying to get across is how difficult it is to project a curve that is essentially a combination of numerous curves from around the country. I hope this helps clarify.
MoRivera 1999
Darth Nihilus
I was using 19% for my projection, not 40%. The day over day rate of increase in deaths has been as high as 40% but I was using 19% for my projection over the next two weeks, the low end. I AM using recent numbers. It was 19% just yesterday. Based on what is happening right now, the growth rate will be higher today. I’ve been watching the growth rate for weeks. It has NEVER declined. The lowest growth rate was the same number of deaths as the day before plus 6%. It ALWAYS growing.
Tom S
Was hoping for a comment on the passing of White Sox radio voice Ed Farmer. Played 11 years and in the booth almost 30.
Rangers29
I saw that earlier. R.I.P
everlastingdave
Loved Ed’s demeanor and delivery. Whenever the Sox play again, I’ll miss him.
Vizionaire
the people going to gun stores en mass were not sticking to 3 feet(or 1 meter) separation rule.
Ancient Pistol
I think one thing no one is considering in a partial or complete season shutdown is that some teams (owners) won’t survive. Of course, this depends on the length of the shutdown. But many owners do not have the liquidity to handle extended delays, In fact, most businesses don’t. It is not inconceivable that if the entire season is shutdown some owners may be forced to sell or dramatically reduce payroll next year because they’ll have to wait for revenue streams to return. For the bigger teams this shouldn’t b that much of a problem (they also tend to have cable deals in place as well). However, if you want to predict which teams may have issues look to see where the owners are also invested. If they own many hotels or cruise ship they maybe forced to decide between selling one of their industries just to get cash to keep the other side afloat. Also, for small teams I can see some of them having a hard time coming up with payroll next year if this season is shot (or, of they have to borrow the money they may tell GMs no need contracts and trade away expensive players)..
Vizionaire
i am not sure i would worry about the finances of billionaires. there are too many people much less fortunate in this world.
Ancient Pistol
This is the wrong attitude. If billionaire team owners hurt then you hurt. They’re the ones that will hire you.
Vizionaire
i am retired. besides, more people are hired by small businesses.
Ancient Pistol
“You” is a metaphor. However, if we allow this shutdown to go on for months there won’t be many small business remaining.
Vizionaire
my sister is a medical doctor and a billionaire. the only thing she thinks about is amassing more money. i worry about her but not her finances.
nowheretogobutup
If it gets that bad they can get a government loan through SBA or CARES, besides if they haven’t save up billions by now who’s fault is that? Besides they can always borrow money from MLBPA or the Union, they have billions saved.
Ancient Pistol
No one saves up billions. That’s a myth.
nowheretogobutup
All baseball owners have an insurance clause for interruption of business whether by death or disasters including a virus that causes a shut down. your caring is something that we should not worry about or put any more time to this issue.t These owners are well covered with ins. policies., I could say that is a requirement by MLB, it hasn’t been brought up yet but don’t worry about these poor multi millionaires or billionaires.
nowheretogobutup
I am sure with the cancellation of the 2020 season ticket holders will be able to use those tickets for 2021. The one thing that is not a good thing is all players will be able to count this as their service time. How many teams have signed or traded for players with a one or two yr. contract. Some thing is not right. MLB sold out to the union and MLBPA, on this deal
YankeesBleacherCreature
MLBPA represents the product – the players. Owners will have to give concessions if they want to sell the only thing they can sell. How owners are handling season ticket holders is a separate issue.
Louiebeans
There will be no baseball this year. New York is NO WHERE Close to being safe. Even if they start baseball let’s say in Texas or Toronto New York won’t be safe……..I’m thinking late summer. Whatta gonna do play baseball without a few teams? Ain’t nobody even remotely close to going to be able to go to games in New York.