With Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio bursting onto the scene in Toronto and right-hander Nate Pearson looming in Triple-A as a potential top-of-the-rotation arm, the Blue Jays have the makings of a strong young core. But the debuts of those three bats and the hype surrounding Pearson have overshadowed the arrival of another of Toronto’s top prospects: catcher Danny Jansen.
Jansen, 25 next week, didn’t exactly help his own cause with a tepid showing at the plate in his rookie season. The former 16th-round pick posted an ugly .207/.279/.360 batting line in 384 plate appearances — not exactly a scintillating followup to the .247/.347/.432 slash he compiled through 95 plate appearances as a late-season call-up in 2018. It’s understandable that such a forgettable performance would lead him to be overlooked, but there’s still reason to believe that Jansen can be an important piece of the Jays’ next contending club.
Firstly, it’s worth noting that despite his middling draft status, Jansen emerged as a prospect of considerable note. Prior to the 2019 campaign, Jansen ranked comfortably inside the game’s top 100 prospects according to each of Baseball America (No. 42), FanGraphs (No. 47), MLB.com (No. 65) and Baseball Prospectus (No. 89). He ranked just outside the top 100 (No. 107) on the ESPN’ rankings. During his final full season in Triple-A, Jansen hit .275/.390/.473 with a dozen homers and a 12.2 percent walk rate that only marginally trailed his 13.6 percent strikeout rate. There’s enough pedigree here to suggest improvement based on that alone.
But Jansen’s work at the plate likely wasn’t as bad as it would appear upon first glance. While he doesn’t run well enough to ever be likely to post a particularly high average on balls in play, Jansen’s .230 mark in 2019 still seems ripe for some positive regression. He’d only posted a mark lower than that once in his career — back in 2015 in a 46-game sample in Class-A. During Jansen’s final two seasons in the upper minors, his BABIP hovered around .300.
According to Statcast, Jansen made hard contact (95 mph or better in terms of exit velocity) at a 40 percent clip that, while not elite, was above the league average. Of the 406 hitters who put at least 100 balls into play last season, Jansen ranked 148th. His bottom-line results at the plate (.275 wOBA) were along the lines of what one might expect from a defensive specialist like Austin Hedges (.266 expected wOBA) or Jarrod Dyson (.273 xwOBA), but Jansen’s .314 xwOBA was markedly higher. The 39-point gap between his actual wOBA and expected wOBA was the fourth-largest of any player who underperformed his xwOBA in 2019, trailing only Marcell Ozuna, Justin Smoak and C.J. Cron.
Put another way: based on the quality of his contact and his K/BB tendencies, Statcast felt that Jansen should’ve been within striking distance of league average at the plate. Instead, he was one of the game’s least-productive hitters.
But even that generalization shrouds some positives that Jansen displayed. While he struggled through miserable months in April and May to begin the season, Jansen heated up with the weather and found himself as one of the game’s more productive catchers from June through August. In that stretch, he notched a respectable .243/.310/.459 batting line in 205 plate appearances — good for a 101 wRC+. League-average production out of a catcher is rare — catchers posted a collective 85 wRC+ in 2019 — so Jansen demonstrating that type of ability over a three-month stretch is heartening. And if he can drop his 20.9 percent strikeout rate such that it more closely mirrors his excellent marks in the upper minors, Jansen’s profile becomes all the more interesting.
Defensively, Jansen shined in 2019, which is a bit odd given that most scouting reports on him cast him as a bat-first catcher and a mediocre defender. His 2.05 second average pop time was well below average — 58th of 78 qualified catchers — but Jansen still threw out 31 percent of those who attempted to run on him. In terms of framing, Jansen ranked among the game’s best according to each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. He was also strong in terms of blocking pitches in the dirt per Baseball Prospectus, which ranked Jansen seventh among all MLB catchers in terms of adjusted fielding runs above average.
Jansen might not possess the superstar upside of current teammates like Bichette and Guerrero or his soon-to-be battery-mate Pearson. But he clearly has the makings of an average or better hitter moving forward, and the 2019 season suggests that his defense might be far more valuable than many had hoped of him as a prospect. An above-average defensive catcher with a competent (or better) bat is the type of talent clubs spend years trying to get their hands on — there’s a reason Jansen drew trade interest early in the offseason — and Jansen could be just that for an increasingly interesting Blue Jays club. It’s easy for Jansen to get lost in the shuffle when looking at the Jays’ young core, but a breakout when play resumes shouldn’t surprise anyone.
McGuire is a much better all around player
No he’s not.
Not even close
He’s a lefty so much easier to platoon and make his numbers look better. That and he still needs to work on his stroke… (mic drop)
McGuire is going to get caught on the team plane next time.
He definitely better at handling the stick.
I agree, I’d be really surprised if he’s still with the team in 2021,
If you don’t know what happened, I feel sorry for you
Could become a premier catcher this year with some improved offense
I like Jansen, but this season he’s gonna be overshadowed by Reese Mcguire jokes.
In all seriousness he reminds me of a much more hyped up Jose Trevino. If you don’t know who Trevino is, that is understandable. He was a backup catcher for the rangers last season in September, and has also had different call-ups throughout the past two seasons. He is a terrific defensive catcher with average offensive output for a catcher, until last season where he ended the season with an above average bat, like a mid .700 ops. Jansen = the hyped up version of Trevino. Now i’m not saying Trevino will be as good as Jansen, and vice-versa, but Trevino is just the underrated version of Jansen.
Could be a Carlos Ruiz type – not outstanding, but dependable enough to stick around for a bit
I like that comparison, but I had to do a double-take, because I thought you said Carlos Perez… two completely different catchers. lol
He was looking good this spring, he completely changed his swing mechanics over the winter. If the season ever starts up he could be in for a big year.
Don’t stop, Wilbur!! Drive!!!
This really good analysis missed one important point. The Jays struggled last year and it was mainly due to well documented pitching problems. They ran a lot of pitchers out there who had no business even being in the Majors but they had no choice after losing several starters to injury and then trading anybody who had any value at the deadline. So Jansen and McGuire when he came up had to do a lot of learning on the fly and defense was a huge priority. He has already gone on record this spring to say that he has now incorporated a batting regimen into his pregame program which he had basically sacrificed last year. His abbreviated spring training performance was very encouraging. So I say thanks for the article, it speaks to a good future for both Jansen and the Jays.
I agree, Jansen had to focus on defence and handling an ever changing pitching staff in his first year as a starter. Hopefully the pitching solidifies, and that will allow hid offence to improve.
Yeah, I remember that early in the season how the broadcasters were saying that the Jays told Jansen to just worry about his defense this year and no matter what he’d be up all year. So he really zoned into his defense and was far better than anyone expected. Now he can work on his offense so whenever we get baseball again he can be an all around player. I love that the Jays for once have a pair of good catchers who are (mostly) home grown. Last pair was Borders/Myers in the late 80’s I think, who also were the last ones to really develop at all. JP Arencibia only had 3 years of over 70 games, Borders only had 6 seasons where he played over 80 games (huh, surprised me), Myers 7 times with 80+ games. Travis d’Arnaud has 3 seasons so far of 80+ games behind the plate but he was only a partial Toronto product.
I think this is a good and overlooked point. That any catcher – especially a rookie – could keep pace with the Jays’ sporadic pitching situation – let alone thrive defensively – is impressive.
McGuire or Jansen, flip a coin for me.
Strong defensive catchers are great, but in the era of high strikeout rates and dingers, a passable defender with pop is more valued than the old Jim Sundberg or Ron Karkovice all D backstops.
That said, Jansen posted some decent offensive numbers in the minors. If he can even match what he did on the farm, definitely him over Reese.
McGuire screams trade bait to me. He probably should be a regular C somewhere, but Jansen has the higher ceiling. Jays could get a good return for McGuire too.
Bell and Archer for McGuire and Woods-Richardson helps both teams.
Bell is worth more than those two alone.
Yes it does, but don’t you think the Blue Jays would be giving up a little too much in that proposal?
Are you just trolling because they gave us McGuire basically for cash relief?
Good call, he is a prime breakout candidate, as many good players often have rough introductions to the game. Smart hitters will learn to adjust, if Jansen adjusts, he will be an elite C. All the tools are there. His D is great.
Reese is my pick and hopefully the Jays keep him around while giving Jansen his chance to shine
There’s a reason Carlos Ruiz stuck around. He was solid in all facets of his game. It served him well as he ended up with a ring, an AS selection and catching the most no hitters in baseball history. If Jansen ends up being even remotely that reliable they’ll be in good shape behind the dish.
Don’t see why everyone is talking about how Reese is better and should be the everyday guy. If they both play well then their going to be playing a lot. With this shortened season it would be foolish to trade one if there’s going to be double headers twice a week plus being cheap controllable players next offseason would be the time to unload one of the 2 depending on how the season goes obviously.
Jays and Rays should rule that division for years to come.
Jansen’s ceiling is all about his eyesight. He has bad eyesight. The glasses have corrected it somewhat, but at the major league level where hitters have .8 of a second to make a decision to swing, you need everything working to the max. He has everything except the eyesight.
I have noticed that he often cannot see the spin on the baseball and sometimes looks terrible at the plate. He’d be a star in the minors because the pitching is so poor for the most part but at the MLB level it looks like the spin is getting the best of him for the moment.
He has all the knowledge and physical tool so time will tell.
you noticed he could not see the spin on the ball?
#scoutseyes indeed!
Jansen struggled in the minors offensively until he started wearing the glasses. Clearly, no pun intended, you didn’t know that Taejonguy. Thanks for contributing nothing again.
the point was he said he noticed this… pretty awesome. he is truly the holder of #scoutseyes
If you have done any real scouting,and watched a player for a while, you can easily tell when a player is swinging at the arm motion and not picking up the spin on the ball. He flails and hope he makes contact. Jansen does that a lot.
Someone at some point is going to have to account for Riley Adams.
Counting McGuire, The Jays have 4 catchers in their top 30 rankings.. Both Kirk and Moreno are top 10.
Problem with Riley right now is he just barely reached AAA at the end of last year. He’ll need at least half a season in AAA before a decision is made. Which, if the season kicked off normally, would have given the Jays until the deadline to make a decision on what to do with the catching situation.
Adams is not an offensive juggernaut but that’s not to say he can’t be. He’s a big boy who rates well defensively and has a strong arm. He can make things interesting if he performs in Buffalo.
They are both just placeholders for Alejandro Kirk
Pretty sure both were higher ranked in the prospect department than Kirk is currently
Jansen is the worst hitter in this team which happens to be one of the worst-hitting teams in the league in 2019. making him the king of the turds.
Jansen worked on his D and he was, for a rookie catcher, better than anyone could have expected. He’s turned out to be a very good defender.
His hitting in the minors took a turn for the better when he began wearing the glasses. Then things turned around. If many felt Jansen’s D needed work then it is clear Jansen works very hard given how well he played defensively. Expect his bat to improve greatly in the near future. That is a good player to have lead by example in the clubhouse.
When you look at the number of pitchers Jansen had to deal with last year, and many times not knowing until the last minute who he would be catching, I think he did a remarkable job. Considering the quality of the P&D last year, he likely caught a lot more pitches than normal, and many times he had no clue where the ball was going once it left the pitcher’s hand. If he put up the defensive numbers he did last year, a Gold Glove is in his future (he will need to hit better though). As a rookie, he also had to adjust to the major league game, learn all the umpires, plus put in his own work. It’s no wonder hitting was secondary to helping his pitchers.
I’ve always liked McGuire behind the plate too. The fact that he hits left likely means Jansen will get most of the at bats, but IDK if there’s another team that has a catching tandem like this. They are only going to get better.
Whether they both stick around long term is anybody’s guess, because the organization is knee deep in catchers.
I could not agree with you more, and I’ll add that even some of the pitchers had no clue where the ball was going sometimes. Watching Jays games you would forget Jansen was just a rookie. He was that comfortable behind the plate.
With what transpired with McGuire aside, he’s been an all-glove, no stick catcher. This will be a Borders/Myers situation all over again and the hot hand will play (my guess).
Kirk might eat himself out of baseball and really needs to keep himself in-check. Moreno looks impressive. Kirk can rake but I think Moreno could be the catcher of the future. Kirk might be a fulltime DH. Just my opinion.
I wouldn’t count McGuire’s bat out either. He hit very well last year in a limited showing, but we will see if pitchers can adjust when they play baseball again.
I should have said McGuire should get the most platoon splits against RHP, so Danny will need to pick it up at the plate.
All good George. And you’re right; McGuire could see more at bats if Jansen’s bat struggles.
mc guire is very good whit is own bat in a parking lot lol
More attendees than an Expos game.
was not hard to beat for sure