In recent days, we’ve run through the most notable catchers, second basemen, shortstops, first basemen, third basemen, center fielders, and corner outfielders who are slated to reach the free-agent market once the offseason rolls around in several months. Now we’ll turn to the pitchers, beginning with southpaw relievers (players’ ages for the 2021 campaign are listed in parentheses).
Top of the Class
- Sean Doolittle (34): There’s no denying the 2019 downturn for a pitcher that had been among the game’s most dominant relievers for several years beforehand. His swinging-strike rate moved from 16.8% in the prior season down to 12.1%; his ERA shot up from 1.60 to 4.05. But most of the rough outings took place in the month of August, while Doolittle battled through a knee injury that ultimately forced him to the injured list. He returned to perform well late in the season and in the Nats’ World Series run (2 earned runs on 6 hits with 8:1 K/BB in 10 1/3 innings).
- Brad Hand (31): The Indians closer would surely be the top southpaw on this year’s class, but he’s not going to make it to market unless he has a disappointing season. With a typical campaign, the club is sure to pick up its $10MM club option rather than paying a $1MM buyout — though we could still see Hand moved via trade in that event.
Solid Setup Options
- Jose Alvarez (32): Not much jumps off the page here. Fielding-independent pitching metrics have never much loved Alvarez and were especially unimpressed in 2019 (4.21 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA). He has never struck out more than a batter per inning or generated dominant groundball numbers. But Alvarez has kept turning in good outcomes. In 122 innings over the past two seasons, he carries a 3.02 ERA.
- Andrew Chafin (31): Chafin could be the top setup option available this fall. He’s relatively youthful in comparison to the alternatives and has rather consistently gotten the job done in recent seasons. Last year, Chafin jumped to a career-best 11.6 K/9, though he also saw his groundball rate drop below 50% for the first time (42.9%) and allowed more than a home run per inning after permitting nary a long ball in 77 appearances in the prior season. Regardless, the results have been good.
- Oliver Perez (39): The late-career renaissance has been something to see, but how long can it last? Perez owns a dominant 2.84 ERA with 11.2 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 since the start of the 2018 campaign. But that was compiled over only 73 frames in 117 appearances. Right-handed hitters beat up on him last year, though that hasn’t been the case historically.
- Tony Watson (36): We were very surprised to see Watson pick up his player option to return to the Giants rather than returning to the open market last fall. He has been so solid for so long that we felt teams would overlook his 2019 struggles, which were driven largely by a jump in home-run rate. He still maintained a typical 12.7% swinging-strike rate, 5.2% walk rate, and 93.5 mph average fastball velocity. And though he is no longer elite at limiting hard contact, as he once was, Wilson was still tough to square up (84th percentile hard-hit percentage; 79th percentile exit velocity).
- Justin Wilson (33): Based upon the most basic 2019 results, Wilson is the top of the class: he worked to a 2.54 ERA. But that output came in only 39 innings and his peripherals — while solid — didn’t quite support it. Wilson gets strikeouts and groundballs, but his strikeout rate has dropped in each of the past two seasons. And he has continued to hand out too many free passes, averaging 5.2 per nine since the start of the 2017 campaign. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising if Wilson emerges as one of the most-pursued arms in this group.
Looking for a Bounceback
- Brett Cecil (34): He’ll need to get back on the mound after a lost 2019 season and then make up for a brutal showing in the season prior, but perhaps there’s still hope.
- Jake McGee (34): There have always been a lot of ups and downs for McGee, who’s likely to be paid a $2MM buyout in favor of a $9MM club option unless he really bounces back strong in 2020. He did manage a 4.35 ERA last year at Coors Field, but that was probably fortunate. McGee was tagged for 2.4 homers per nine while logging a pedestrian 7.6 K/9 — well off his career peak.
- Andrew Miller (36): And that brings us to the final, and most interesting, name on this list. Once one of the game’s ultimate late-inning weapons, Miller has now turned in two-straight marginal seasons. He coughed up 1.8 long balls per nine innings last year while working to a 4.45 ERA over 54 2/3 frames. Miller’s velocity has dropped below 93 mph for the first time since he was moved to the bullpen, and he has settled in with a ~13% swinging-strike rate after topping out much higher. He still managed 11.5 K/9 in 2019, but that came with 4.5 BB/9 and the aforementioned dingers. If Miller is able to return to something like his former self, the Cards could pick up a $12MM club option rather than paying a $2.5MM buyout. That’d take a major turn of events, but it can’t be ruled out for a guy with Miller’s pedigree.
really hope we can extend Alvarez. he is quietly productive.
Not really. His underlying stats are fairly mediocre for being considered one of the best relievers on the roster. I’d be fine if he takes a 2/8M or something, but keep him away from the type 2/12-18M mid-tier reliever deals.
Miller and McGee are prototypical change of scenery guys who will go somewhere on a cheap deal and be lights out
Miller’s already had one change of scenery that didn’t help.
Chafin can really pitch. His GB% went down last year after using his sinker less and slider more, but considering he does not get much horizontal movement on his slider, the sinker doesnt pair well with the slider. Even though it was his most used pitch, throwing the slider even more would be beneficial. Last year it got a 52% whiff rate. Even if he uses it more and loses 20% of the whiff rate, it would still make him even more dominant. Dbacks seem pretty smart now, if there is a season I wonder if they push him to throw it more. Considering Will Harris got 24 mil going into his age 35 season, Chafin going into his age 31 season could be in for a surprisingly big pay day
Hand looks like a safe-ish bet (no disrespect to Doolittle) to top out the earnings.
I still cannot believe Oliver Perez is still around. He made his debut back when the padres still played in mission valley
Andrew Miller being paired with Jake McGee looks so wrong.
McGee’s road numbers were very, very good in 2019. Good enough to move into the solid setup group.
Except for Wilson, they’re all crap unless you can get them for no more than one year and cheap.
Yeah three time all-star Brad Hand, who is consistently a top 5 reliever in the game is just crap. Now I understand where you’re coming from… sort of… you mean by a value standpoint. Wilson is the best bang for your buck guy, but calling Hand or even Doolittle crap is a harsh generalization.
I’ve been playing a lot of MLB The Show 20 with the new rules (at HOF and Legendary difficulty against live players who also understand the game and its nuances at the deepest levels) and I can tell you right now, the left-handed reliever will be virtually extinct by next season. Only top guys who throw extremely hard like Chapman and Miller will survive. The problem with a lefty relief pitcher is most of them have a far more difficult time retiring right handed batters (primarily because, on the whole, they’re not really that great of pitchers to begin with, which is why they are in the bullpen, and secondary, the left handed arm angle is so uniquely different than a right handed pitcher, and the ball comes right in for right handed batters and is far easier to hit than a righty pitcher facing a lefty batter), and with the 3 batter minimum rule, few lefties will ever be able to come into a game and face only left handed batters. Typically, they’ll have to face at least 2 right handed batters. And unless they can get them out at an acceptable level, and only the most elite ones can, their jobs could be in serious jeopardy. There is an argument that they can be used to end an inning, but again, playing with fire, if they fail to retire the one left handed batter they were brought in to face, they then have to face two righties in a row (most likely) and are suddenly in a terrible spot. I don’t see how a team justifies carrying them after they learn these lessons this season (if there is a season, which seems remarkably doubtful). MLB has screwed left handed relievers worse than they have ever screwed over any other players in the history of the game. Once they get games going, you’ll quickly be able to see how right I am. Stats always tell the story.