Not long ago, the $200MM threshold was one rarely breached by MLB contracts. It has become increasingly common. Now, you might say, $300MM is the new bar for the most rarefied air. But the $200MM club is still rather exclusive, with just twenty members.
Typically, we evaluate contracts based upon the new money actually promised in the deal. That is, we don’t count already guaranteed future money when we write about contract extensions. But that’s not the only reasonable way to discuss cash, depending upon what you’re trying to measure. (And that’s all before considering deferrals and other major contractual elements.) In this case, what we’re hoping to examine is the biggest overall commitments teams have made to players.
MLB’s 20 biggest-ever contract commitments:
1. Mike Trout (Angels, $426.5MM): Is it possible to earn this much more than any other player, despite signing extensions rather than inking an open-market deal, and still remain a bargain? Well, yeah, if you are one of the absolute best baseball players ever to take the field. Joe Posnanski just graded Trout the 27th greatest player of all time based upon his accomplishments through his *rubs eyes disbelievingly* age-27 season. It was hardly surprising when the Halos added ten years and $360MM to the preexisting deal between the parties. This contract won’t actually kick in until 2021, so it’s impossible to evaluate it, but Trout was his typically unbelievable self last year and has yet to show any signs of slowing down.
2. Bryce Harper (Phillies, $330MM): It took a super-long, 13-year pact to get Harper to this level — the biggest contract ever when inked. But he wanted to ride out his career in one uniform and the Phils were willing to enter new contractual territory to bring him over from the division-rival Nationals. The first season wasn’t a barn-burner, with Harper producing good but hardly superstar-level numbers at the plate, but he’s still just 27 years of age and has plenty of time to make good on the deal.
3. Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins, $325MM): Another 13-season behemoth, this pact was inked years earlier than Harper’s and included opt-outs. The Yankees took over the contract after Stanton’s 2017 MVP season. While he has mostly produced high-end offensive numbers since putting pen to paper, he has also encountered some health issues and missed most of the 2019 season.
4. Gerrit Cole (Yankees, $324MM): The bidding got out of hand quickly as Cole flew past prior starting pitcher contracts and became the first (and thus far only) hurler to break the $300MM barrier. The contract didn’t just set a new high-water mark for overall guarantee to a pitcher; it also topped Trout with a monster $36MM average annual value over its nine-year term. We’re still waiting to see how this deal plays out.
5. Manny Machado (Padres, $300MM): As with the Harper deal, Machado’s was premised in no small part on the fact that he was still youthful enough that a lengthy and massive investment could pay huge dividends over a long period of time. This one went for ten years, so Machado is actually out-earning Harper on an AAV basis. He also turned in a good but underwhelming debut season with his new club.
6. Alex Rodriguez (Yankees, $275MM): This was one of the first monster deals of the MLBTR era. Tim Dierkes wrote at the time that “$28MM would be a pretty fair deal for him, maybe even a bargain.” Nobody could’ve foreseen the craziness that ensued — Biogenesis, talk of voiding the deal, a surprisingly civil mid-2016 retirement, etc. — but it was eminently reasonable to make the deal at the time. As it turned out, Rodriguez contributed only 23.1 rWAR from that point forward, though the fact that it seems underwhelming only serves to show just how good he was.
7. Nolan Arenado (Rockies, $260MM): This deal included $234MM in new money — a huge amount for a mid-tier spender but also a fair sum for one of the game’s most consistently productive position players. Though Arenado was as productive as ever in 2019, the Rox took a step back and had to consider trade scenarios over the offseason.
8. Alex Rodriguez (Rangers, $252MM): A-Rod opted out of this one, setting the stage for the already-covered pact. The original $252MM contract was perhaps the most successful ever deal of this magnitude. Rodriguez racked up 56.4 rWAR over the seven seasons that were completed before he exercised the exit clause.
9. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers, $248MM): It seemed questionable at the time for the Detroit organization to make this kind of commitment two years before Cabrera was slated for free agency. But nobody could’ve expected the kind of collapse that has occurred since. Cabrera is an all-time great hitter but has dealt with health issues and doesn’t profile as a highly productive mid-to-late-thirties player.
10. Stephen Strasburg (Nationals, $245MM): Strasburg is the chief protagonist in the tale of the Nationals’ rise, intervening disappointments, and eventual 2019 triumph. It’s fitting that he’ll likely end up spending his entire career in D.C., and Strasburg has shown he can dominate even without top-shelf velocity, though it’s also quite a risk on a 31-year-old hurler who has had his share of arm troubles.
10. Anthony Rendon (Angels, $245MM): Another newer deal resulted in the departure of another former Nats star. Rendon has long been a strong producer, but reached new heights with the bat in his most recent seasons and seems a good bet to keep up the steady output for years to come.
12. Albert Pujols (Angels, $240MM): The Halos hope their latest contract in this realm works out better than the last one. Pujols was already 32 when he went west and — we now know — his best years were behind him. The Halos got a few useful campaigns but it was nothing like the superstar output of yore.
12. Robinson Cano (Mariners, $240MM): Hello Cano came about when the Yankees didn’t pursue their stud second baseman quite as forcefully as many expected and the M’s stepped in with a bold bid. Cano returned 23.3 rWAR in his five seasons in Seattle, which was strong production and enough to allow the team to trade away the back half of the deal even after a PED suspension. We recently explored in a video just how rough that swap was for the Mets; it has worked out even better than hoped for Seattle.
14. Joey Votto (Reds, $225MM): While some would prefer their star first basemen to deliver more dingers, Votto has been an enormously productive hitter for quite some time. He’s coming off of a tepid 2018 (by his standards) and decidedly average 2019 showing, so there’s some reason to worry whether Votto is beginning to fade. But the game’s ultimate professional hitter has largely lived up to expectations and could yet add more value over the final years of his deal.
15. David Price (Red Sox, $217MM): The biggest pitching contract in history when signed, the Price deal hasn’t really paid out as hoped but also wasn’t a total train wreck. The southpaw has been a quality performer — but not the ace he once was — and the Sox won a title. It cost Boston half of the remainder of the deal to offload Price on the Dodgers as part of a bigger swap this past offseason.
16. Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers, $215MM): This was a slam dunk of a deal to sign. Kershaw was the game’s preeminent hurler entering his walk year in 2014. He ended up winning the MVP award in the season before the deal formally kicked in, so there’s little doubt the star southpaw would’ve cost bundles more in free agency. While back issues have reduced his dominance, Kershaw remains an excellent starter. When his opt-out decision was pending in the fall of 2018, he and the club agreed to an extension that expanded the original deal.
16. Christian Yelich (Brewers, $215MM): The most recent two-hundred-million-dollar man has emerged as one of the game’s best players since the Brewers acquired him and his team-friendly early-career extension from the Marlins. He agreed to his new contract just before Spring Training was halted — less than two months ago, if you can believe it — thus adding seven seasons and $188.5MM on top of the final two years he was already promised. If Yelich can maintain anything like the trajectory he has established over the past two seasons, this new contract will be a bargain.
18. Prince Fielder (Tigers, $214MM): Fielder had a monster debut season in Detroit, but this ultimately turned into another classic slugger contract that didn’t really pan out. He had one more good campaign left in him after a swap to the Rangers, but Fielder was ultimately forced into early retirement owing to neck surgery. The Texas organization was able to sort out a settlement with its insurer.
19. Max Scherzer (Nationals, $210MM): Wonder why teams sign these deals when so many seem to run into trouble? This is Exhibit A. Scherzer has just plain dealt in D.C., winning two Cy Young awards and placing in the top five of the voting in each of his five seasons with the Nats. We just examined whether an extension of the arrangement might be worth pursuing.
20. Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks, $206.5MM): And that brings us to … probably the biggest stunner on this list. Nobody saw Greinke going to Arizona, least of all for a deal with this much money in a six-season span. Good as he was in his platform season, and for years before that, Greinke managed to set an AAV record entering his age-32 season. He got off to a rough start with the Snakes, but ended up delivering strong results — so much so that the Arizona organization was able to recoup significant young talent (while also holding onto a big portion of the remaining salary) in a 2019 trade deadline blockbuster.
bcjd
I just wanted to point out that plenty of mid-size market teams are on this list, some multiple times. NYY is on it twice, and Boston only once
Brixton
3 of those mid-markets signings (Greinke, Cano, Stanton) were traded though.
cgallant
Fielder too
LouisianaAstros
11 Large Market Clubs
9 Mid Size Market Clubs and Smaller
Detriot was a team who was behaving like a large market club for awhile. Their owner passing on has hurt them because he was actually losing money to win.
I put Detriot as a mid size market.
In terms of legit large market clubs.
You see 7 players.
Missing are the Chicago teams and NY Mets
But regarding Chicago. I don’t know how you can claim the White Sox are a large market team. Not enough room in Chicago for 2 MLB franchises.
brandons-3
The Cubs are one of the teams that just missed the cutoff too. I believe Heyward’s pact went for around $184 million with strong rumors that both Washington and St. Louis offered more.
Rangers29
Prince Fielder was so good in his prime, and even for a season in Texas, but his neck took him down way to soon. IMO one of the most emotional moments in recent baseball history was his press conference when he said he couldn’t play anymore. He’s a forgotten great.
Superstar Car Wash
Same number of career home runs as his dad too. Just crazy and cool at the same time.
mlb1225
It’s a real shame too. For a while he seemd indestructable and missed only 13 games from 2006 to 2013, including a 3 year stretch where he played 162 games each season. Really had Hall Of Fame potential in that bat. If he lasted like 4 more seasons where he put up numbers like in 2015, then I think he might have been able to get into Cooperstown.
mike156
Some of these are just grisly.
LouisianaAstros
I have said numerous times I think the Greinke trade has the potential to hurt the Astros.
I don’t know what Arizona was thinking giving him that money. Give him credit because he used those few seasons with the Dodgers to get paid.
Fun to watch if you want to teach someone how to pitch but doesn’t have the type of stuff that deserves a huge payday.
hOsEbEeLiOn
Greinke is the pure definition of a pitcher.
Outside of 2016 he’s performed well on his contract thus far. He’s posted sub 3.25 era the last 3 years, and pitching estimators have been very in line with that production and as his K’s have dropped so has his walks.
What were they thinking? They were thinking they were signing an ace which they received 2 and a half years out of.
They paid for durability as well. 30+ starts, 200+ innings last 3 years.
How many pitchers have averaged sub 3.5 era and 200+ innings last 3 years? I’m sure the list isn’t very long but grienke is on it.
How will it hurt the Astros? He has 2 years left, 1 if 2020 is cancelled. Greinke at 1 year 32 mill is decent if he gives you another 6 war season.
LouisianaAstros
Astros pretty much cleared out the top of their farm system for him outside of Tucker and Whitley.
It has the potential to be a bad trade for the Astros.
Even more than most.
You don’t bring that type of pitching for nothing.
Truthfully I was more interested in Robbie Ray. Far cheaper and is on the up side of his career instead of the downside.
The truth is Greinke was brought in to replace Cole.
Solid #2 pitcher but there are risk and the reward isn’t tremendous.
brandons-3
It’s all about maximizing the window with this group. Correra and Springer are upcoming free agents while Verlander is likely 2-4 years from retirement. Grienke was brought in to continue their current run for a couple more seasons, before they’d have to readjust some things.
It was a win-now move that teams are too afraid to make these days when a couple prospects are worth more than potentially winning a World Series.
Afk711
You are dead wrong about Greinke. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for over a decade now and his stuff will age like fine wine. His only bad year was his adjusting season in Arizona and since then he has put up 3 great seasons. They didn’t even give up much for him. Bukauskas has not been a good draft pick. Martin is out with TJS. Beer is ok but its not hard to find a 1B. Hinch wasted Greinke’s great outing in game 7 by refusing to use Gerrit Cole in his last game as an Astro. If they win that game there was no possible way for that trade to hurt them. Even now its extremely unlikely to hurt them as they need Greinke in their question ark filled rotation.
LouisianaAstros
You can’t make concrete decisions on two young pitchers.
Both had the potential to give the Astros solid innings for affordable prices.
Like with anything it is what you pay for it.
If I was getting Greinke production during the arbitration years I would be all for it.
But he is taking a large part of the budget plus he cost the Astros players who were cheap.
The Astros are at a point where money is an issue.
Next 2-3 years could make it tough. If we had affordable talent come up it wouldn’t be such an issue.
Regarding Greinke. Not as much him as it is the other young pitchers
If Whitley can finally show who he should be and become that solid starter in the next 3 years it won’t be an issue
Afk711
Bukauskas was mediocre at AA. Being cheap only helps if the player is actually good. Martin has some upside be he won’t be in a rotation until 2021. Greinke did and will do so much more for the Astros than those pitchers will. Yes money is tight but their window is also starting to creep closed. Winning now needs to be their biggest priority.
LouisianaAstros
He is still only in his early 20’s.
Not every pitcher dominates minor league at the Double A and Triple A level their first attempt.
If he was 24 it would be a different issue.
In regards to money.
It won’t be an issue if the Astros have players coming up producing.
Like Alvarez did and hopefully Kyle Tucker can.
With the pitchers it is Urquidy this year and Whitley in the future.
TheTrotsky
71 career rWAR says you’re wrong about Greinke. Just be quiet please.
LouisianaAstros
Some of you are missing the point.
With a name like Trotsky I see why.
Greinke is being paid for that production plus the Astros had to give up players for that production.
So for the Greinke trade to work other players have to step up.
Mainly Kyle Tucker. If Tucker can’t replace the production they will be losing the Greinke trade is the reason because they are paying him money they could have given Brantley.
So a lot of factors are involved for it to end up a great trade for the Astros but it is very easy for that trade to turn out bad.
Truthfully the Astros wanted Ray and ended up with Greinke.
LouisianaAstros
You are missing the second part of baseball.
Numbers are great but the front office also has to deal with the next part.
Cost benefit analysis.
For example…
If my starting SS is costing me 12 million a year but I have someone who I believe will give me that production and is club controlled
Wouldn’t I view the cheaper player to be a lot more valuable than the guy costing 12 million even though the expensive player might have better numbers.
In regards to Greinke. His numbers are outstanding.
Like I said in the beginning if you want to teach somehow to pitch show them Greinke.
But Greinke is on the downside of his career, Is an outcast in the clubhouse, would rather play for a NL team plus is expensive.
More importantly for the trade to work you need other players to step up.
Especially the young pitching.
This is the reason why the ended up with him and not Ray.
The last three years Ray and Greinke have been similar but Ray is a lot cheaper
OntariGro
“If Tucker can’t replace the production they will be losing the Greinke trade is the reason because they are paying him money they could have given Brantley.”
If they want to extend Brantley they will. There’s no “we wanted to extend you but Zack took your money.” The Astros have $42 million dollars committed in ’22.
Also, had they not traded for Greinke, a significant portion of the $25 million per year (D-Backs are covering $10 million per year) would have gone to addressing what would have been a Cole+Greinke-less (and soon to be Verlander-less) rotation. Likely through FA, which = expensive.
“But Greinke is on the downside of his career,”
His performance has yet to reflect that. The opposite, really.
“More importantly for the trade to work you need other players to step up.”
For the trade to work. The value of Greinke’s production needs to be >/= the remaining $ of his deal and > the MLB production of the players the Astros traded for him. You can’t hang everything else on acquiring Greinke like they gave him their last $25 million on accident, ruining their longer term plans.
“The last three years Ray and Greinke have been similar but Ray is a lot cheaper”
From ’17 – ’19 Greinke’s:
ERA – .61 lower
IP – 158 more
ERA+ = 23 points higher
WHIP – .234 lower
FIP – .68 lower
BB/9 2.7 lower
K/BB = 2.34 higher (nearly twice as good)
Average innings per start – Better by an inning
WAR – 7.3 more (essentially 2x Robbie Ray [3x in ’18-’19])
LouisianaAstros
But Ray is a lot cheaper and is reaching his peak.
I am more incline to say 17 and 18 are the norm more than 19.
Astros still want Ray. Like I said the DBacks wanted too much for him because they valued Ray more than Greinke.
Because he is way cheaper.
Cost benefit analysis.
LouisianaAstros
In regards to the rotation..
Urquidy
Abreu
Whitley
James
There are a few of them right now. Astros just need 2.
If you look at 15-17
They didn’t have Verlander or Cole.
Verlander came at the end of 2017 but they had already locked up a playoff spot.
In terms of the Astros being able to win the AL West without Verlander and Cole.
I don’t see that as an issue especially if they can develop the other pitchers.
Truthfully Verlander was in a decline when the Astros traded him.
Cole wasn’t Cy Young sub 2 Gerrit Cole before the Astros.
Regarding Greinke.
I have said twice before. The guy can pitch.
I just worry about contact with him.
He isn’t overpowering and people can pull him.
Much rather have someone who causes the ball to be driven to the middle of the field or someone who misses bat.
Especially if I see the Astros paying big money.
It is a power baseball stadium. Power pitching and power hitting.
OntariGro
“But Ray is a lot cheaper and is reaching his peak.”
Ray is at the age where players are typically in their “prime.” Ray pitching well during this time isn’t a forgone conclusion. His actual performance includes a lot of worrisome plateaus and regression. There’s no guarantee he’ll pitch well during his “peak.”
“I am more incline to say 17 and 18 are the norm more than 19.”
Ok, so the 3.9 and 5.1 BB/9 are tough to shrug off, The ERA, FIP, WHIP, H/9, HR/9 and K/BB all heading in the wrong direction too.
OntariGro
“In regards to the rotation..”
I don’t understand why you’re listing all this rotation info. I was responding to you preemptively blaming the Greinke trade for taking Brantley extension money. My point is that even if the Astros hadn’t traded for Greinke, the money he’s being paid would have still been used for pitching.
I just worry about contact with him.
He isn’t overpowering and people can pull him”
Ranked 59th in Pull% over the last 3 seasons.
“Much rather have someone who causes the ball to be driven to the middle of the field”
Ranked 9th over the last 3 seasons.
“someone who misses bats”
Three 200+ K, one 199 K seasons in his last 6. 8.5 K/9 along with 1.,8 BB/9. 1.055 WHIP (including a sub-1 WHIP with the Stros)
“It is a power baseball stadium. Power pitching and power hitting.”
Worth noting that half of his starts will be…not there.
Greinke is the pitcher you want that you’ve convinced yourself you don’t want, somehow.
mustang1282
They left off Joey Votto and his 10 year 225 million dollar deal
vtadave
#14,…maybe they edited the list?
nats3256
I “LOLed” at “Trout is the 27th greatest player at age 27 season” and “Harper is only 27, he may live up to his contract one day”…I paraphrase, but what a difference between the two.
ChazB322
What happened with the numbering? And where is Joey Votto?
Jeff Todd
Whoops, I somehow lost Votto … that’s the numbering issue. (Others reflect ties.)
ASapsFables
No Chicago teams on this list. The Cubs came close with Jason Heyward’s 8 yrs/$184M contract and have signed multiple players to deals over the $100MM threshold, most of which were bad.
The White Sox have yet to sign any player to a contract even approaching the $100MM mark although they reportedly did offer Manny Machado a guaranteed $250MM deal with added incentives that might have exceeded the one he ultimately signed with the Padres. They also reportedly had a $125MM contract on the table for Zack Wheeler this past offseason but he chose to sign with the Phillies for less money due to a geographical preference.
lsmccall
If you notice most of the teams mentioned have not won a world series with the overpaid player. Only the DC team and one of the players got the money after the world series win.
supercarnie
Actually Strasburg and Scherzer won with DC, ARod won with the Yankees, and Price won with the Red Sox.
rangerslegend34107
ARod, Scherzer, and David Price all won titles.
A good portion of these contracts are just beginning (Trout, Machado, Harper, and Arenado are entering 2nd yr of contract; Rendon, Yelich, Strasburg, and Cole haven’t played a game yet in their new contract
slider32
Agreed, A-Rod always gets a bad rap, but he won 2 MVP’s and championshirps something none of the others were able to do. He is the best 3rd basemen of All Time and maybe the best short-stop also and he moved for the Yanks. Funny how everyone love Nelson Cruz who is the home run leader the last 5 years and Big Papi, who both where busted along with A-Rod.
metfan4ever
Slider32–A-Roid was lucky to be on a W/S team. He roided his way in and out of MLB. Bad Rap–“he earned his bad rap.::Due to the unsuccessful nature of the Yankees postseasons from 2004 to 2007, along with Rodriguez’s sub-.200 batting average in the postseasons of 2005 and 2006,[25] Rodriguez drew criticism in the New York area, both from writers, such as the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, and players, such as then-teammate, Jason Giambi.[160][161] Prior to 2009, Rodriguez had received the nickname “The Cooler” among some players because of the perceived tendency for teams to turn cold when he joins them and hot when he leaves” and that from PLAYERS he was teammates with
OntariGro
If your intention was to confirm that mid-2000s Yankee fans, NY sportswriters, and members of the team itself WERE the spoiled, finger-pointing babies they appeared to be here outside the boroughs: mission accomplished. They look at 04=07, see 4 division titles, view all 4 as failures and, being unable to conceive that there could be several reasons for the team’s early postseason exits, search for the player to crucify.
The magical thinking required to look at a guy who picked up 2 MVP awards, averaged 123 runs, 43 homeruns, and picked up 31 WAR in that 4-year span, and scream “ITS THAT GUYS FAULT THE TEAM SUCKS (In Yankee Fan dialect SUCKS = not winning 4 WS) is a special kind of delusion.
johnrealtime
lsmccall accidentally made the opposite point of what they intended
joeyrocafella
That was a fun read… Good article
Ricky Adams
Of the 20 biggest contracts in mlb history, 11 were regretted by team. Maybe teams should quit going past 200 million
Afk711
I count 8 here and thats being extremely generous counting Arod and Machado. How on earth do you get 11?
johnrealtime
Often the player offered so much surplus value at the beginning of the deal that it offset the dead money at the end of it.
Pujols and Miggy are the only true loser deals here and those were misguided from the day they were signed. Plus the Angels likely didn’t know that Albert was 4-5 years older than he claimed at the time
AngelDiceClay
Please tell me how You know Pujols is 4 – 5 years older and The Angels don’t
DGHalos714
I am curious to hear about how Trout’s new extension is expected or forecasted to pan out. As a Halo fan, I hope he continues the pace he is on. But can he seriously keep it up and get better every season? What do you all think? I think he will have 5 years of excellent production and then start to decline and move to a corner outfield and or DH. I think if my Halos win at least 1 World Series then it is worth it. We just want to see him play meaningful post season games! I also find it comical that the Angels we have 3 players on the list and none are pitchers….the writing is on the wall! Get some damn good pitching!
YankeesBleacherCreature
Trout doesn’t need to get better being already the best player in baseball. He’s not a prodigious basestealer anymore and part of that strategy is to preserve health. As long as he can stay off the IL, he’s going to be a tremendous player even during his decline years. As a generational talent, he’s worth it whether or not the Angels can win a WS. Appreciate the excellence.
bobtillman
Trout is Trout…you’ll never see another in your lifetime, if you’re like over 35. And the “11 were regretted by the team” might be a little short. I may love Tony Two Bags and Yellich too, but there’s no certainty that they’ll live up to their contracts; history would seem to indicate they won’t.
And Mad Max might “be Exhibit A as to why teams sign these deals”, and Kersh and Stras might be Exhibit B, but I’m not sure you have any more exhibits in the hopper.
homerheins
Mike Trout is already a hall of fame player and he is just now reaching baseball prime years. That’s crazy!
Also, rarely does a team do so little with so much. Please write an article about the phenomenon of teams that can’t make the playoffs while having the best player.
Vizionaire
most of these were products of owners’ desire to make more money. for signing pujols angels received extra $1 billion in the tv deal. and for a while his jersey sales were #1 among the angels players. and in angels case, injuries and even deaths decimated the rotation.
LouisianaAstros
Pujols was never himself.
He has had moments with the Angels but since he left StL he hasn’t been the same.
But even then you started to see the decline with Pujols in StL.
Interested with Rendon. Rendon is a little bit different. He liked Washington but that wasn’t home to him.
The Angels owner has wanted Rendon for awhile. Feels the support from ownership, family is comfortable in Southern California and has protection in the lineup.
Interested if he changes the history of the Angels and their FA players.
Truthfully even though he is the one who changed the WS last year in Game 7 I hope nothing but the best for him. Except when he plays the Astros.
jorge78
That would be a good article!
AngelDiceClay
You really believe the Angels have “done so little” ??Yes the Angels have only been to the post season once with Trout. But it’s not from the lack of trying.
brucenewton
Yanks are a ringless mess.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Ringless yet the second most valuable franchise in all of sports. Beats being the Royals.
chesteraarthur
That Cole deal is going to be so bad.
stretch123
I tend to agree… he seemed to have hit his peak last year in my eyes. Would’ve be surprised if he’s elite for another 3-5 years or so, but I think that’d be about it.
chesteraarthur
They’re also currently losing what should be the most valuable time due to the shut down (obviously they couldn’t see that coming). So that hurts the value total of the contract.
stretch123
Signing these players for 25-30 million annually makes sense but I never understood why teams sign players for 10+ years AFTER they’ve already been in the league for 5-6 years. Players are usually elite for 10-12 at the most thus, you’d think GMs would offer 8-10 year deals for higher AAVs… a player like Betts for example. No way I’d go higher than 8 years and 250 million. His speed will deteriorate.
Yes A prime A Rod is worth 10 years and 25 million annually for sure, because you’d likely get elite production, but to give a player like Harper 13 years based on above average production (as opposed to elite)? Doesn’t make sense to me.
LouisianaAstros
Teams needing a splash signing.
Philadelphia with Harper
SD with Machado
Angels with Pujols
Rangers with ARod
Cano with Mariners
All 5 have something in common. Horrible deals.
Much better to create a superstar than buy one.
Lanidrac
The Angels are really going to be hurting for cash next offseason when their 2021 payroll includes paying top dollar to Trout, Pujols, and Rendon, not to mention other big contracts like Upton.
LouisianaAstros
Good chance the money Rendon contract don’t kick in until the Pujols contract is over
Usually how that works
Gets a 12 million dollar raise after Pujols
baseball-reference.com/players/r/rendoan01.shtml
HalosHeavenJJ
After this year Simba, Castro and Teheran drop off, the following year Pujols does, then Upton.
That crunch is why it is so critical Adell become a mainstay with plus production and that Marsh follows him not too long after.
Lanidrac
That still doesn’t help their finances much for 2021 even with Rendon not making as much yet. They’ll still owe $115.95M to just 4 players!
HalosHeavenJJ
The Angels wish Pujols was 32 when he signed that deal. Based on his own repeated comments, that is highly doubtful, not that there weren’t previous warning signs.
Lanidrac
What comments? He’s never said any such thing, and his documentation was at least good enough for U.S. citizenship.
While he did start declining suspiciously early, at least part of that was due to his long time heel problems that culminated in his one major DL stint to date in 2013 and multiple off-season surgeries afterwards, and he still managed to be a well above-average hitter (including a 40-homer All-Star season at age 35) up until his age-36 season.
jimmertee
Good article.
No baseball player is worth a $200 m + contract, ever.
Awarding these big contracts will slowly disappear. the economics of baseball and North America are changing dramatically. I have been saying it for years. It is at its peak. It is quickly downhill from here.
OntariGro
“No baseball player is worth a $200 m + contract, ever.”
Why not? Is this a cross-vocational opinion or is it just baseball players who aren’t worth that?
” I have been saying it for years.”
,,,makes it sound like you’re just guessing then, making a dramatic, detail-light declaration each passing year in the hopes that it will be true some day and you can toss out years-old I-Told-You-So’s.
AngelDiceClay
Really? I read about MLB teams signing new mega TV deals every year. It’ all about “Content” on TV.
PixelMelonz
Trout’s AAV is $37 million, no? Does that not top Cole’s $36? Otherwise that’s not worded very clearly.
tannedt
1) From a business point of view, teams should, and mostly are, okay with free agent contracts not being great values. With good players they have gotten 6 years of good or better production at a fraction of the market value. Those are the good value players. They can afford a few clunkers.
2) When discussing known steroid cheats like Alex Rodriguez, we must include that information in any valuation of him. There were steroid rumors about him all the way back to his high school years, so any assessment of how good he was needs an asterisk.
OntariGro
2a) Choose similar, asterisk-like shapes for:
=Pre-Integration era players
-50’s Benzedrine/Go Pill users
-60’s-’70s amphetamine/dexemil/”Greenies” usersl
2b) Choose your own shape t0 indicate
-self-righteous indignation
Or save the finger-wagging, speak for yourself, and save the declarations of what “we” “must” do.