It was exactly a decade ago today that ESPN.com’s Buster Olney dropped a bombshell on the baseball world, reporting that the Phillies had held some internal discussions within their front office about the possibility of a blockbuster deal of first basemen — Phils slugger Ryan Howard to the Cardinals for Albert Pujols. It would have been a one-for-one trade, with both players switching uniforms with two years remaining on their current contracts.
As Olney observed in his report, the concept might well have been just an idea floated within Philadelphia’s front office, rather than an actual proposal made to the Cards. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. went a step further when asked to comment on the rumor, calling it “Lies. That’s a lie. I don’t know who you’re talking to, but that’s a lie.” (Olney defended his reporting two days later, calling it “confirmed information” and he knew “exactly who said what to whom, and how sturdy the intent was.”)
It was an eyebrow-raising trade rumor at the time, and though this particular swap apparently didn’t come close to being a reality, the concept of a straight-up superstar-for-superstar deal is still fascinating ten years later since such deals are so rare. And, in this particular instance, we can judge with a decade of hindsight how a Pujols-for-Howard trade might have worked out for both the Phillies and the Cardinals.
For St. Louis, the impact is simple — they might not have won the 2011 World Series without Pujols. 2011 marked what was, incredibly, the least-impressive of Pujols’ 11 MLB seasons, as he “only” hit .299/.366/.541 with 37 home runs over 651 PA. This performance was just the warmup for an epic postseason, as Pujols posted a 1.155 OPS over 82 PA during the Cardinals’ 18 playoff games. Pujols’ efforts included a three-homer night in Game 3 of the World Series, putting him alongside Babe Ruth and Reggie Jackson as the only men (Pablo Sandoval joined the club in 2012) to ever hit three home runs in a Series game.
Could the Cardinals have won a title with Howard in Pujols’ place? It’s possible, as while Howard wasn’t quite as productive as Pujols during the 2011 regular season, Howard still hit .276/.353/.505 and 31 homers. Who’s to say how those numbers might have differed in a new ballpark and a new environment as a Cardinal rather than as a Phillie; Howard, a St. Louis native, might have thrived with his hometown team, or perhaps struggled under the added pressure.
What likely doesn’t happen in this what-if scenario, however, is the nasty injury Howard suffered in his (and the Phillies’) last at-bat of the 2011 season. Making the final out of the 2011 NLDS, Howard tore his Achilles tendon leaving the batters’ box to run out a grounder, and he didn’t return to action until July 6, 2012. It ended up being a career-altering injury for Howard, as while he was already showing a tiny bit of decline from his prime years and any sort of dropoff for a power hitter isn’t uncommon as he enters his 30’s, the before-and-after of Howard’s Achilles injury is jarring. From 2012-16, Howard hit only .226/.292/.427 over 2122 PA.
The Phillies lost that 2011 NLDS to, ironically, the Cardinals. It was the second straight year the Phillies had fallen short in the playoffs after a dominant regular season, and it ultimately proved to be the end of that great era of Philadelphia baseball. In the eight years since, the Phillies have yet to enjoy another winning season, only managing an even .500 record on two occasions (2012, 2019). While Howard was a big part of the Phillies’ success in 2010 and 2011, replacing him with Pujols’ next-level production might well have been the difference in a World Series victory in either 2010, 2011, or both seasons.
The other major side effect of this trade is what happens after the 2012 season. A little over a month after Olney’s report, the Phillies signed Howard to a five-year, $125MM extension covering the 2012-16 seasons. Since Howard was already 30 years old at the time of the extension and under contract for two more years, there was a pretty immediate and negative reaction to the Phillies’ decision, and while the Achilles injury wasn’t foreseen, the deal indeed ended up being a bust for the Phils.
That said, does Howard still ink an extension if he ends up with St. Louis in this alternate reality? As Olney noted, the Cardinals weren’t making progress with Pujols on an extension, so they could have had interest in Howard as a potential long-term replacement. The difference, however, could’ve been that the Cards might have waited at least a season before locking Howard up. Looking back at past extensions for such Cardinals notables as Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, or Paul Goldschmidt, the team has tended to wait until just before the pending free agent’s final season under contract to finalize a new deal. A Cardinals/Howard extension could been potentially lesser in both years and dollars, if Howard has performed for the Cards in 2010 as he did in the real world (.276/.353/.505 with 31 home runs) for Philadelphia. While still strong numbers, they nonetheless represented a step back from the 50 homers Howard averaged every season from 2006-09, while also batting .278/.379/.589.
As for Pujols, he did depart St. Louis after that 2011 World Series title, signing a ten-year, $240MM deal with the Angels that still has two seasons remaining. While the Phillies were willing to splurge on Howard, extending Pujols would’ve cost twice the years and almost twice the money as Howard’s extension. Maybe the Phils (perhaps flush off Pujols leading them to a championship or two) would have decided that Pujols was worth the extra investment and signed him to a similar extension. Assuming the Pujols in this multiverse declined at the same pace as our universe’s Pujols did with the Angels, such a deal could have left the Phillies with an even bigger contractual albatross on their hands….especially if the Pujols-led 2010 Phils or 2011 Phils hadn’t won a World Series, leaving the team without even a “flags fly forever” silver lining.
Another route is that the Phils work out a more creative extension with Pujols, perhaps overwriting the terms of his 2010-11 salaries to give him more money sooner and less money on the back end in his decline years. Or, in what might have been ultimately the best-case scenario for Philadelphia, the team could have just let Pujols depart for free agency after the 2011 season. That would have left room in the Phils’ budget and a hole at first base, which could have put the team in the market for another of that offseason’s top free agent first basemen — Prince Fielder.
Needless to say, such a major trade would’ve greatly altered the last decade of Major League Baseball, and likely swung at least one World Series result. Given how the last ten years played out for the Phillies, maybe there’s someone from that club’s front office who, if this trade proposal indeed never got past the internal discussion phase, wishes they’d picked up the phone to at least give the Cards a call.
VonPurpleHayes
That 2011 loss was gut wrenching. The Phils were so good in that brief stretch from 08-11. I sometimes can’t believe they only won 1 World Series, but I also realize how ridiculous that sounds. Baseball is tough. Haha.
Goku the Knowledgable One
Well they made it to 2 so not bad at all
VonPurpleHayes
Definitely not bad at all. Ironically though, the team that won the World Series wasn’t even the best Phillies team during that 4 year stretch. Games are not won on paper though.
Afk711
Prime Pujols on the 2010 Phillies? Forget it… Thats the elusive 2nd title for that group. But they would have also re-signed him to that albatross deal. Howard not tearing his achilles on the final play of the NLDS would have been another big fallout of the trade. Lots of history changed if this trade happened.
dave frost nhlpa
I agree. I am a Yankee fan. Albert in that lineup would have wrecked it. But also I’d like to know who the Yanks would have then signed if they lost in the WS after signing CC,AJ,etc the winter before.
8
Phillies missed out, Cards dodged a major bullet
vin050
Why would the birds make this trade?
ldoggnation
They wouldn’t. Olney’s a joke. He’s never known anything other than the crap he makes up.
bardbot
lmfao
RedFeather
Agreed. This conversation probably never happened the title should read “10 years ago today Olney had nothing to report, so here’s what he made up”
DarrenDreifortsContract
There’s no way the Cardinals trade Pujols who was still the best player in the league at the time and the face of their franchise straight up for Howard. Especially when Pujols had 2 years left on his contract and they probably thought that they had a good chance to re-sign him.
John Kappel
I mean it’s possible….. Howard was also the face of a franchise and they both had two years left. Pujols, based on fWAR, was not the best player in the league in 2009, 10, or 11. in fact he goes, in order, 3rd, 5th, 44th. That’s right, you read it correctly, 44th! Howard was younger at the time…. so it is definitely possible.
hiflew
No, it really wasn’t. They were focused n re-signing him. And they had a very large offer on the table for him. If they had known that the Angels would sneak in and steal him away at the last minute, then maybe they would have tried to make this deal in order to get something for him. The main 3 teams with known offers for Pujols were the Cardinals, the Angels, and the Marlins. Yes, those Marlins. That was the off season when they signed Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and someone else. But I think their offer was slightly less than St. Louis if I remember correctly. The Ange were not even discussed as a possibility until the day Pujols signed during the Winter Meetings.
BTW, Fangraphs didn’t exist in 2011, or if it did it was not accepted as a useful tool, so using fWAR as your evidence doesn’t really work. Baseball reference was sort of accepted back then, but WAR in general was not as accepted by the majority of people. It was still a niche market, albeit a growing one.
Plus, we are talking about the 2010 off season, so any WAR from 2010 and 2011 was unknown at the time. People could not see into the future to know that Pujols would be ranked 44th in a category that didn’t exist on a then obscure website that was likely not even around yet.
JoeBrady
While FG wasn’t around, the stats made Pujols an obviously better player. In their two previous seasons:
.342/.452/.656/1.108
2.65/.349/.557/.906
And a better glove and better runner, and Howard’s weak splits would be a negative as well, not to mention Howard’s declining K/W.
sam00991
Just because data wasn’t available in the time doesn’t make it unacceptable. Retrospective data is actually some of the best that can be used at times since it unifies all players with one category. Tech is making it easier to see how players from different erase even compare, so yes, it IS acceptable.
hiflew
It’s perfectly acceptable NOW. But it wasn’t around then, so they couldn’t use it as an evaluation. If you are talking about what you could have done then by looking back, then sure you can use it. But if we are talking about what they would or should have done then, you have to use the evaluation tools they had back then in order for you make any kind of fair judgment.
hiflew
Oh I agree that Pujols was the superior player, but it wasn’t by a wide margin. Well it was statistically, but that’s just because Pujols was that far ahead of everyone. Howard was still a top 5 1B in 2009.
I remember this rumor and it was basically all about Howard being the best option for the Cards IF Pujols left in one way or another. It was mostly due to him being from STL.
its_happening
Howard is older than Pujols. At what point was he ever younger?
Melchez
Howard is older that Pujols. Always has been.
eatonculo
The moment Pujols got a new birth certificate.
RedFeather
Not to mention Pujols was making less too
JustCheckingIn
The article states clearly they were making zero headway signing Pujols. They knew he would walk. They knew his price and didn’t want to pay it
Hence, let’s call philly. Man why are fans so insistent that a FO DOESNT explore a move? That’s the definition of negligence. Lmfao. You idiots….
fred-3
Achilles injury killed his career
oldmansteve
You could say it was his Achilles heel
angt222
First time I’m hearing about this trade rumor.
phillyballers
Howard was more resignable than Pujols. Phillies had deeper pockets to retain Pujols. Probably the driving force behind the trade idea.
wordonthestreet
I do not believe this ever was discussed. Cardinals never would have done that deal
BennyTheBoss
No way the Cardinals even considered this. By the end of 2009, Pujols was reigning MVP and the best player in the game. Howard’s value in 2009 was half of what Pujols was
John Kappel
He was not the best in the game at that point.
WillieMaysHayes24
Yeah he only led the league in WAR runs homers ops ops+ and total bases in 2009. But somehow wasn’t the best. Right…
oldmansteve
From 2007-2009 Albert Pujols was:
1st in WAR – 24.7
The only other player over 20 was Chase Utley
1st in wRC+ – 173
No one else over 160
1st in AVG – .337
Tied with Ichiro
1st in OBP – .444
1st in SLG – .626
No one else over .600
1st in BB/K – 1.81
No one else over 1.40
And did all of this while being graded as a league average defensive player.
So please tell me who was better than him going into the 2010 season?
its_happening
Short answer: nobody.
Goku the Knowledgable One
I think it had more to do with them being more realistic to resign Howard than Pujols
Idk kind of a worthless article but also fun
SoCalBrave
The only thing we should take away from this non-story is that Olney somehow still has some credibility from ESPN…
andthenisaid
Howard was from St. Louis so the speculation was frequently floated. There was some family relationships that caused him to not want to go back to St. Louis.
andthenisaid
Howard was from St. Louis so the rumors easily spread. He had some bad family relationships that made him not want to come back to St. Louis. I don’t believe there was ever anything close to happening.
Tim_Buck-Two
Interesting read. I really don’t think the Cardinals would have traded a 3 time MVP for a 1 time MVP though, not even if the Phillies front office did pick up the phone. John Mozeliak over saw the draft that selected Pujols and I think played a major role keeping him hidden from Padres scouts in 2000 when they traded for Carlos Hernandez.
hollidayfever
This is the biggest non-story I’ve ever read about.
Goku the Knowledgable One
Guessing you’ve never witnessed a Pirates offseason
DarkSide830
their definition of an offseason is the time of year the where the GM is off.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
I know with no baseball writers are hard pressed for storylines, but this one borders on the absurd. Not because the trade itself is probably bogus, but rather, “Who cares?”.
Be prepared to see more stories written like Olney’s. Writers gotta write, right?
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
Oh, and as a Phillies fan, I would have loved that trade. Pujols would have hit 50+ HR at CBP.
MoRivera 1999
“Be prepared to see more stories written like Olney’s. Writers gotta write, right?”
So you’d rather have a paltry number of articles? Careful what you wish for.
JustCheckingIn
Another moron complains the free website isn’t up to his standards
Then… go away
bobtillman
Ya but that was TEN years ago. FIVE years ago a monumental swap of Hall of Famers was discussed. I’m speaking of course of the Yankees trading Refsnyder to the Red Sox for Swihart.
Old User Name
What could have been…
The Human Rain Delay
Not all things have gotten better in the last 10 years but not getting our baseball news thru Gammons and Olney certainly qualify –
Hat tip to the players doing good work;
MLBTR, Fangraphs (pre Meg) The Athletic MLB Network,
You have saved us!
tylerw
This deal would never happen as the Cardinals would never have considered trading the best player in baseball and the face of the franchise at the time. People were comparing him to Babe Ruth. Why would you trade such a player? That’s not how the Cardinals do business.
Additionally what would the Cardinals have gained in this deal? A lesser player. Howard was good at the time but he was no Pujols. It makes no sense.
xSpecBx
While it seems unlikely, but if they thought that they could not resign Pujols long term, it’s possible they looked at a way to lock in a player who they could resign and would give them 80% of Pujols performance long term. Howard’s career certainly nosedived, but Pujols has had a significant drop as well
oldmansteve
Baseball really is suspended, aint it?
TB RoHo
Who cares
JoeBrady
Something is seriously wrong with people that read a headline, then read the article, and then post ‘who cares?’. Obviously you cared.
brucenewton
Must have been Howard and Hamels for Pujols.
A_Berg_Thing
Need to look at the Pirates turning down Ryan Howard for Kip Wells in 2005… would have been franchise altering for both, thanks Littlefield.
619bird
Never say never. If things were at such an impasse between Pujols and STL then they might of put the feelers out. In the end my guess is that if something took place it likely ended at getting just Howard.
JoeBrady
I doubt they’d have put out feelers 2 years in advance.
JustCheckingIn
Why? If you know he wants 30M+ for 10 and you’re offering 25 for 5…. no bridge is being built over that river
It’s the exact scenario of why Bryant, Lindor etc are mentioned in rumors this offseason…
jtk1911
As a cardinals fan this would of been the dumbest trade in mlb history
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
That’s as one sided as it gets. Ryan Howard has one major Achilles injury and he basically never plays again. Pujols has over 600 home runs, 1 of only 6 players with that many home runs. Howard night have been the 7th member of that club if he wasn’t hurt.
JoeBrady
Howard hit 31 & 33 in his two seasons before getting hurt. He’d have to continue that pace until he was 42 in order to hit 600. He likely wouldn’t have hit 500 either. He only had 286 through age 31.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Maybe I looked at his numbers wrong but even then. If the Phillies got Pujols they’d probably win another world series.
Pujols made the right decision going to Anaheim so he could DH in his later years.
Rsox
Both Teams would have pushed hard for extensions for both players and it would have blown up spectacularly in both teams faces.
The only difference is Ruben Amaro Jr. would have been trading a noose for a guillotine.