While Kevin Gausman has never developed into the top-of-the-rotation starter many envisioned, he carved out a role as a solid innings eater in his first five MLB seasons. Between 2016-18, Gausman averaged 183.1 innings with a 4.07 ERA/4.30 FIP between the Orioles and Braves.
Then the wheels fell off in the first half of 2019. The righty started his first full season in Atlanta with a 6.21 ERA in 13 starts; he hit the shelf for a month-plus with plantar fasciitis in his right foot June 11. Gausman would make just three more starts for the Braves, who waived him in August. The non-contending Reds claimed him for the stretch run.
It was Gausman’s time in Cincinnati that offers the most hope for a rebound. With a full rotation, manager David Bell deployed him solely in short stints (14 relief appearances and one ‘start’ as a two-inning opener). While he managed just a 4.03 ERA in that time, the now 29-year-old racked up an impressive 29:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Gausman’s midseason bullpen bump wasn’t at the level of someone like Drew Pomeranz’s, who struck out nearly half the batters he faced as a reliever and parlayed it into a four-year deal. It was, however, enough to remind us Gausman’s nowhere near as bad as he looked at the start of last season.
In fact, much of Gausman’s abysmal results in Atlanta can be chalked up to bad luck. Hitters put up an unsustainable .345 BABIP against him in his time as a starting pitcher. And those batted balls tended to fall in at the least opportune times. As a Brave in 2019, Gausman faced 53 batters with two outs and runners on base. He struck out 18 of them, but opponents hit .406 on balls in play in those spots. If just a handful of those batted balls had found defenders’ gloves, his ERA would’ve looked quite a bit better. Luck isn’t to blame for all of Gausman’s trouble in Atlanta. He did allow more hard, airborne contact than ever before, which is a bit worrisome. Nevertheless, it’s fair to point out things beyond his control contributed to his struggles.
The rotation-needy Giants signed up for a potential Gausman rebound this offseason. He’ll get another crack at cementing himself as a rotation piece at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. He doesn’t throw as hard as he once did, but he still sits 94+ MPH on his fastball. That pairs with a knockout splitter that’s allowed him to handle left-handed hitters throughout his career. At the very least, he should be well-equipped for the three batter minimum if he ends up back in the bullpen at some point.
Surely, though, SF is hoping for a successful return to the rotation for the still-young hurler. Perhaps the organization can unlock further upside by coaxing a usable breaking ball. David O’Brien of the Athletic reported last summer Gausman had toyed with a curveball while rehabbing from the aforementioned injury, but he was almost exclusively fastball-splitter in the big leagues. Even a mere return to form would position Gausman well when he hits the open market next offseason. The Giants don’t appear likely to contend in 2020, so the righty could find himself changing uniforms for the third straight season.
well his ERA has been up and down throughout his career, so maybe he posts something around 3.75 this year.
I feel bad for any pitcher drafted by the Orioles during the past decade
Nice writeup that helps explain what Zaidi is thinking. Not every bounce-back candidate will strike gold, but this is a good guy to slot into the back of a rotation in a noncompetitive (maybe nonexistent) baseball season.
By the way, how much does the Giants’ rebuild (or any other team’s rebuild) benefit from a lost season if this one never gets its feet off the ground? That’d be an interesting question for MLBTR to field.
We’re actually rolling out a series on how the delayed season start will affect each team. Connor Byrne examined the Yankees on Friday, but we’ll cover everybody in time (mlbtraderumors.com/2020/03/how-delayed-season-impa…).
It’s not exactly what you suggested because the assumption (for now at least) is that the season will eventually get underway. If that doesn’t happen, I imagine we’ll do another round of longer-term, team-specific posts.
I can see pros and cons here. Obviously this gets them closer to some contracts completing but it also knocks off a year of acquisitions and development.
A guy like Gausman can turn into a prospect, maybe not. They’d be denied the opportunity to know.
Giants gain significantly….. they are just waiting out the last 2 years of Posey Belt Crawford and Cueto to get to the much awaited free agency of 2022-
Longo has 3 left and the only Giant that will be under contract 2022
Only real trade piece they lose on is Shark and maybe Gaus for 2020, Cueto probably becomes more atractive to trade on a 1/21 than 2/42 as well but overall one of the biggest benefactors imo if the season is lost
Longo has 3 years left too.
“Still hits 94 MPH”. Pessimistic by nature, but it always seems that every team EXCEPT the giants have someone who can hit 97-100 MPH. I know speed doesn’t always equate to success, but it can’t hurt either. I guess what I’m trying to say is….we should….the giants are….why can’t the….okay I’ve got nothing…..I miss baseball :’(
Just to be clear, Gausman averaged 94+ on the fastball, per Brooks Baseball. His max velocity last year was 98.54 MPH, so he can get into the upper-90’s when he needs to.
He hit 98 in a spring training game. As did Beede. Jelly hit 95.
Unfortunately, we don’t know if beede will ever hit that again tho
Gausman really does have an awesome split-change if he can just reign in one other pitch. Last year it was reported several times that he had developed a cutter in the minors and was getting results, only to not use it at all once called up again. There’s potential there to be a solid starter, I just believe he needs to iron out one more pitch to do it.
Spot on. The fact that he really only uses 2 pitches, no matter how good that 2nd pitch is, hurts him as a starter. He needs a 3rd pitch to keep hitters guessing. It’s too easy just to sit on a pitch with him. That, or he needs to shift to the pen.
Agree. With only 2 pitches the hitter can just sit on one. I also wonder if that 3rd pitch could be a change-up. But whatever it is, SPs with only 2 pitches do not usually succeed against major league hitters.
The Rangers should of added him
they should have added anyone but Gibson and Lyles. they’re both terrible.
Gausman landed in a good park to pitch. Potential is there for a decent season and to be traded whenever there is a deadline this year.
Wow, a favorable story about the Giants by a national writer. Not a Bay Area homer. Just thought I’d point that out We’re. And Righty.
I don’t know what you are talking about Claude. You are as confusing as always. You are a homer, but I do not hold that against you one bit. We are all homers for our teams for the most part. Nonetheless I do not know what point you are trying to make.
I really liked him with the Orioles, he had so much potential. I feel like the Orioles stunted his development by yo-yoing him between the majors and minors for roster flexibility.
huge O’s fan here.
you are exactly right sir. he won a playoff game in Yankee stadium, then started in the MiL the next season.
duquette was an idiot who was out of the game for 10 years for a reason
Have you tried just cutting down on your calorie intake?
He actually started his career in 2013.
He is what he is. MLB is filled with pitchers like this. Tease you with their “stuff” but wildly inconsistent.
Huge generalities like that, though basically true, do not apply to individuals. Every guy is different, and he is a legitimate bounce back candidate. GMs would miss out on a lot of production adopting your view and applying it to every pitcher with “stuff”.
pirates. if he’s cheap.
….. he’s already signed.
I echo badfinger… Coulda. Shoulda, woulda just don’t cut it in the league. Braves gave him ample opportunity, his suckitude outweighed the few times he excelled.
The Giants paid the same for Kevin Gausman that the Angels paid for Julio Teherán.
$10 says Gausman has the better season
id take that in a heartbeat if Teheran was playing anywhere but pitcher injury city.
Sox bucks and my left nut say we’re not landing in St. Louis
Sox bucks? Lol PT&A quote fail
Could be a dynamite late inning reliever with his plus two-pitch mix.
Put him in the bullpen, he’s bad in the rotation
According to the Fangraphs pitch velo graph, Gausman’s hardest fastball in both 2014 and 2015 topped 103 MPH. His fastest pitch in 2018 was 100.94 and last year it was 99.67.
To have potential triple digit reachback velo along with just developing a wipeout slider with Cinci last year makes him a pretty good gamble in my book.
I think he’s a good closer candidate.
Gausman’s claim is fame is an ability to avoid injuries! That’s the definition of an innings eater. Bottom line, he’s a bust.
Gausman sucks. Period. Angels showed they dont care about pitching.
Really liked what the Giants did with Cozart….. cant help but wonder if doubling down on that type of contract buy out/trade isnt a better use of 9 mill…. Realize that eating inns does have worth even for a non-contender but still….
If I were a re-building team like the Royals Tigers Giants I would have tryed to jump in on a guy like Will Meyers when they wanted to move his contract rather than gamble on trying to flip Gausman later……
I wonder if this is a new route to go for teams with a little money to spend yet still in re-build mode
They might’ve looked at their park, and how it plays, and thought pitching was the better bet to rebound. Plus I think(?) Myers has a few years left on his pact.
Im only really talking about what comes out of Gausman/Meyers not the actual players…
Meyers has 3 which is why they would get such a nice exchange for him
I guess it still circles around public opinion too much-
Like if Im the Det Tigers brass why would;nt I want Meyers +prospects over Schoop Cron Romine on the 1 yr deals they signed in offseason ?
I think theres untapped potential in these buy-out contracts that hasnt been fully exploited yet by teams – It looks ugly at first glance but most fans are not really familiar with “windows” as we call them- The key is finding teams desperate to move money (Pads/Meyers Angels/Upton (soon) Tb/ Kiemeir (soon) and look for the over-pay
Sf Giants have money and could manipulate this system well given their current state and cash, some teams gonna do it soon and do it well I think….SF has a head start with Cozart already
I’ve been saying for months the Giants should take ALL of Myers contract if it nets them 2 of SD’s top 5 prospects.
But the hangup is the Padres don’t want to move any of their top prospects, especially within their own division.
I’m sure SF has brought it up but we common folk never hear about those talks. Who knows, it could still happen….
I hope Gausman does well with his new team. On the Orioles it quickly became apparent that he was a 2-trick pony – fastball and an offspeed change/splitter, not unlike Ubalso’s. For years we fans have known Gausmans need of a 3rd pitch…and yet each year goes by and nuthin. Zip. I think he’d be a very good 7th inning guy. But if SF makes him a starter I do hopes they teach him a 3rd pitch.