The Brewers entered the free-agent period with a void at first base. They let go of their top option from last year, Eric Thames, declining his $7.5MM club option for 2020 in favor of a $1MM buyout. Months before that, the Brewers traded right-handed complement Jesus Aguilar to the Rays. The Brewers are now set to rely on former Mariner, Ranger and Blue Jay Justin Smoak, whom they signed to a $5MM guarantee in December. Smoak’s contract also includes a $5.5MM option for 2021. Both prices are eminently fair, and there’s reason to believe that Smoak will justify Milwaukee’s investment.
To start off, it’s worth noting how Smoak got to this point. He’s a former standout prospect who has seldom matched the hype. The switch-hitting 33-year-old owns a mediocre .231/.324/.420 line with a 104 wRC+ (the league-average mark is 100) and 6.2 fWAR across 4,618 plate appearances. However, Smoak did somewhat begin to realize his potential in recent years. He put up in the best years of his career from 2017-18, a 1,231-PA stretch in which he batted .256/.353/.495 (128 wRC+) with 63 of his 191 home runs and posted almost all of his lifetime fWAR (5.3).
On the heels of his two consecutive strong seasons, there wasn’t reason to think Smoak would fall off in 2019. Unfortunately for him and the Blue Jays, it happened. He took 500 trips to the plate and could only muster a line of .208/.342/.406 (101 wRC+). Smoak did amass another 22 homers, but his overall production (0.2 fWAR) rendered him a replacement player. So, if you’re a Brewers fan who isn’t expecting much from Smoak in 2020, that’s understandable. However, it does appear that he deserved better a season ago, which could bode well for this year.
Despite his so-so output in his last campaign in Toronto, Smoak did manage much better strikeout and walk numbers than the typical hitter. He drew a free pass 15.8 percent of the time, almost doubling the MLB mean of 8.5 percent, and struck out in 21.2 percent of plate appearances (the league average was 23 percent). Additionally, he upped his hard-hit rate by almost 9 percent from 2018, according to FanGraphs. Smoak also swung and missed in just 8.9 percent of PA (the normal hitter checked in at 11.1) and rated as one of Statcast’s favorite under-the-radar offensive players from last season. He ranked in the league’s 72nd percentile in average exit velocity (90.3 mph), its 76th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.495, crushing his actual mark of .406) and its 86th percentile in expected weighted on-base average (.366, far outdoing his real wOBA of .323).
None of the above guarantees Smoak will rebound in 2020. That said, when you combine his bottom-line production from 2018-19 with his under-the-hood numbers from last year, he looks like a logical bounce-back candidate for this season. From the low-budget Brewers’ perspective, it was worthwhile to take a chance on Smoak.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Jokes on you, Goldenface.
Did he even see Pam? Or Karen from behind?
He was a wanted animal rapist
Lol well done guys
Go check out Tex Williams and the song Smoke, smoke, smoke (that cigarette). It’ll be more entertaining than reading about Justin Smoak, trust me.
good ol one year wonder
Or as he’s known in the PNW – None Year Wonder
How is he a one yr wonder when he put up back to back good seasons?
50/50 chance of being a bit above average
I remember my dad once went to a Jays game and got these “Smoakey” barbecue tongs as a giveaway. Once, as a joke, he used them on an actual grill. They fell apart almost immediately.
Ryan Braun will play 1b vs RHP
LHP*
Could be RHP too. OF could be Garcia/Cain/Yelich with Braun handling 1B. Otherwise it’s an expensive 4th OF for a might-tight franchise like the Brewers.
Dude just sucks. Not many other ways to say it.
His numbers say he’s average…
Most warning track fly outs in the history of baseball
The smoaklamotive…..
Someday he is going to finally break out….so they say.
In seriousness he should do ok in that hitters ballpark he is going to. If only he can keep the Ks down….reminds me of Russell branyon from back in the day.
Did you even read the article? He’s better than the league average.
His strikeout percentage was a little high (21 K%) (106 strikeouts in 500 plate appearances) but his base on balls was very good (15 BB%) (79 walks in 500 plate appearances). Even so, that strikeout percentage wouldn’t be so bad for guys like Aaron Judge, Hunter Renfroe and Miguel Sano. Not just them, obviously, but those guys strikeout over 30% of the time at least, maybe even worse.
i saw this guy play for the last 5/6 years an is a good 1 baseman alot of power an rarely on the dl /il
last year performance is not valuable due to the country club in the toronto ball club
2015/2016 he didnt get alot of chance to prove imself due to superstar player an edwin incarnation got alot time 1b
good signing for milwakee
Statcast also beats off to Stephen Piscotty on the reg. At some point xwOBA or whatever it is tells as much as Astrology signs. Statcast hates Julio Teheran but he’s out-performed whatever his xERA-DEFGJWTH whatever number is or his entire acareer. At some point, part of Teheran’s skill set is that he out-performs pedestrian to below average rate stats, and Justin Smoak (and Stephen Piscotty) just suck. Smoak/Piscotty have until June 1st to make me a believer, Wuhan Virus or not.
I enjoyed Smoak in Toronto. This is where he showed he belonged at this level. He was solid in a rebuilding team. He did obviously have a down year in power, but on a not very deep team. If he was more versatile, I think Toronto might have kept him. Good luck Smoaky!
Smoak is not a part time player, and that’s how he’s slotted……look for a league average in homers and slug and a lot of late game defensive substitutions.
Great character person from his days in T.O. but I don’t see any of Milwaukee’s veteran lottery tickets really paying off.