The White Sox have already reached new agreements with a host of players of late, with Yoan Moncada recently joining Aaron Bummer, Luis Robert, and Jose Abreu just this winter. Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez inked deals previously. So … what’s one more?
The starting rotation is noticeably underrepresented from the ranks of the extended core. While a few hurlers could become candidates in short order, there’s probably only one who’s really primed for a deal: Lucas Giolito.
Giolito’s path is remarkably similar to that of Moncada. They both came over in back-to-back trades in the 2016-17 offseason — each of which, somewhat ironically, involved White Sox stars (Chris Sale and Adam Eaton) who had loads of trade value thanks to their own early-career extensions. There were some growing pains and moments of doubt for the long-hyped Giolito and Moncada. Then came 2019 …
While the White Sox weren’t all that competitive as a team last year, they had some exceedingly promising outcomes from individual players. On the pitching side, nobody came close to Giolito, who was one of the top dozen or so starters leaguewide. He completely reversed a miserable 2018 season, vaulting to new personal highs in velocity (94.6 mph average fastball), swinging-strike rate (15.0%), and K%-BB% (24.2%).
There’s not much to dislike about Giolito’s effort. He didn’t excel at limiting the long ball, but was slightly better than the league mean in homers allowed (1.22) and homers-per-flyball rate (13.6%). Statcast indicated that Giolito largely deserved the outcomes, crediting opposing hitters with a meager .275 wOBA and .280 xwOBA. Giolito dominated opposing lefties in 2019. There were health concerns when Giolito was drafted, but he already got Tommy John surgery out of the way and has mostly been healthy since. (He ended 2019 with a mild lat injury and is now dealing with a pec issue, but both seem rather minor.)
The question, really, is one of faith. Giolito is only 25 years of age and has a top-shelf pedigree. The results finally matched. So do the White Sox let things play out through arbitration — like Moncada, Giolito is still a full season shy of arb qualification and four campaigns removed from free agency — or chase yet further upside with yet another extension?
That may depend upon the cost. While Giolito was a first-round pick, he fell to the 16th pick of the 2012 draft. He still got a big signing bonus, but at just under $3MM it was less than a tenth of what Moncada commanded. For a pitcher that has already dealt with some health issues, and hasn’t yet reached that first big payday, there’s definitely greater sense in selling away some earning ceiling in exchange for security.
Giolito wouldn’t be the first starting pitcher to do so. In fact, this stage of a career — just before arbitration — is quite the popular time for hurler and team to line up on a deal. Jon Lester’s 2009 pact with the Red Sox — five years, $30MM plus an option — proved a market-setting contract. The total guarantee has crept up a bit in some cases in recent years and we’ve seen various ways of tweaking the model, but that’s still the core structure of many such contracts.
In this case, the White Sox would probably be thrilled to slot Giolito into that five-year, mid-thirty plus option(s) sort of a deal. There’s really not all that much risk. Sure, you’d always rather pay less for more, but even one more elite season or a couple of good-but-not-great efforts would justify that sort of cost. And there are loads of scenarios where the organization could clean up. The team just promised Bummer, a non-closing (for now) reliever, $16MM. Doubling that (plus change) for a high-end starter is more or less a no-brainer unless the club has some inside cause for concern.
All that points to an argument that Giolito really shouldn’t be slotted into the classic form of Lester and progeny. After all, lower-ceiling lefty Marco Gonzales just got a $30MM guarantee over four years with a single option. Giolito looks more like German Marquez, who recently commanded $42MM+ on a four-year term while giving up one option year.
Then again, perhaps Giolito can present a case for something more akin to the deal inked between Blake Snell and the Rays. That accord included over $49MM of new money and only required Snell to hand over control over one would-be free agent season — one less than the other two deals just discussed — thus leaving him more future earning upside. Snell’s Cy Young Award gave him a boost, to be sure, but his pact also came together on the heels of a weak market for free agent pitchers. We just saw Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg blow the top off of the rotation market.
It’ll be interesting to see how this one shakes out, if indeed serious talks occur. Maybe Giolito will get a Snell-like agreement but fall a bit short in terms of guaranteed cash. Or perhaps he’ll look to build upon the Marquez deal, giving up that extra season of control (in Giolito’s case, his age-30 season) to boost the up-front cash promise. Regardless, I’ll go ahead and guess that a contract would land in the realm of a $45MM guarantee.
Photo courtey of USA Today Sports Images.
Get it done no matter what it costs.
one BILLION dollars….
3-7 from july 17th with a 4 plus era in 2019…not at all costs
His ERA was 3.69 after July 17, and that was heavily influenced by a game against the Twins where he gave up 7 earned in 5 innings. He later shut them out with 3 hits, 0 BB’s, and 12 K’s. He followed that up by facing them again 6 days later, giving up 2 earned in 6 innings while striking out 9. That game and the 2 against the Cubs were the only really bad performances he had after April 12th.
Yeah, ERA can be misleading stat, if a couple starts are total bombs. Much better to have a guy totally suck a couple times while lights out the rest of his starts, than be consistently just decent. Giolito’s 12 K effort vs a great Twins team as you point out showed that his stuff is the real deal. Not saying they should overpay but I hope they extend him on another team friendly deal. Pitchers riskier due to injuries and inconsistency, so hopefully they agree on something reasonable.
Ah, I see that he alone was playing against those teams during those 10 games.
Many of their core position players are signed for the next half decade or longer. While it would be great to also lock up Giolito. Pitchers tend to be more volitile and injury prone making long term deals with them more risky IMO. Therefore I won’t get too upset if an extension doesn’t get done.
I don’t think they go for an extension now, but hand him a good-will bonus check for $2MM during a steak dinner.
The White Sox are not just handing over $2 million dollars to him for free.
Sure why not? And toast the evening with something like “To next year or see you in court.”
And nobody would be upset, because they’re men.
No matter what it costs? In that case I would disagree. The cost is relevant.
I’d say they should wait another season to make sure he’s the real deal and not 2018 Giolito.
The 2018 Giolito was just to go out there to pitch a full season against MLB hitters since the White Sox knew they were going nowhere that season.
Wouldn’t 2018 have been a great season for Giolito to prove himself? Wasn’t he a top prospect? You’re making it sound as though he didn’t care how well he performed.
13yearold is right
It’s not being a deluded homer but more of a realist that the Sox were tanking in 2018 to get a high draft pick in 2019 (Vaughn) when Hahn basically been saying his goal was to get the team competitive by 2020. It looks like Hahn has been sticking to his word!
The downside there is that is he repeats his 2019 success, the price will go WAY up. The whole point of these early extensions is gambling, so they might as well gamble here too. If you are going to do it, do it now. That being said, Giolito could easily turn into Ricky Romero or Kyle Freeland, so I wouldn’t do it ever. But I wouldn’t have done it with the other players either.
How is the price going WAY up for turning in a repeat season where you are basing the extension on that in the first place
If he repeats, he becomes more confident and will be less likely to compromise to reach an agreement.
Would cost too much now. Reduce risk and see him have a good 2020 year. Then, even if more expensive, you fell better about the investment. Offer 7/100. And smile in a long run of competitive south side baseball.
Man they could of had eaton
@Dom
They did have Eaton, and they got a nice return for Eaton. I’ll do that trade on the Sox end any day of the week, no hesitation.
The White Sox will offer Giolito an extension after this season to see if last year is not a fluke.
agreed
6 years 45 to 55 million with a club option for 15 to 20 million 3 million buyout
As a Cub fan, I think the White Sox are doing a great job at locking up their young core early on and that might translate to several years of playoff and World Series contention. Well done
Those extensions really worked out when the names were Sale, Eaton,and Quintana. Williams is probably already trying to figure how many prospects he can get back when he trades these new names.
3-7 with a 4 plus era from July 17th in 2019….calm down
Wrong…
4-7 with a 3.69 ERA
check again but either way worth 45 million? no
Sorry, he was 3-5 as Soro8011 pointed out below, the team was 4-7 in his starts.
But yes, I’d be thrilled if they signed him for $45M. I’d happily give him the Aaron Nola extension.
@vanswanson
We did check again (thank you Soro8011).
Nice job with cherry picking the stats, and adding the inaccurate stats was a nice touch. But I think we’ll stick with accuracy, thank you very much.
And we’ll be more than happy with a $45MM extension, but thank you for your concern.
Actually wrong. He was 3-7 with a 4.32 ERA since July 6
Game’ w l IP ER ERA
6-Jul o 1 4 6 13.50
15-Jul 0 1 6 3 4.50
20-Jul 0 0 6.2 1 1.45
25-Jul 0 1 5 7 12.60
31-Jul 0 0 7 1 1.29
5-Aug 1 0 6 3 4.50
11-Aug 0 1 5 2 3.60
16-Aug 1 0 6 2 3.00
21-Aug 1 0 9 0 0.00
28-Aug 0 1 6 2 3.00
1-Sep 0 1 6 4 6.00
6-Sep 0 0 7 2 2.57
12-Sep 0 1 6 5 7.50
Total 3 7 79.2 38 4.32
I’m not sure where you got your stats from giolito didnt even start on the 17th he started on the 15th and the 20th but if we were to go from the 17th aka 20th on as you’re saying giolito went 3-5 with a 3.69 era which is pretty good in itself add onto that the fact that he struck out 103 batters in 70.2 innings in that span and I’m failing to see why you’re so unimpressed with those numbers
How you gonna cherry pick his ERA in some vain attempt to prove he’s no good. Dumb. You can literally do that with every pitcher in baseball. You focus on his entire body of work, not just a month.
If you will enlighten me, consider that Stroman turned down 5 years and $90 mil to not stay with the Jays in/before his 2nd last year of arb. Instead, Toronto traded him as they should have and ultimately spent that budget space on Ryu at 4 years and $80 this past offseason.
Giolito should be in a similar and of course higher pay range with some control left, but I think taking the money now is the best move.
ChiTown lock this guy up unlike what the Jays did with Stro. Next perennial AL contender…against the Jays.
Giolito, a legit staff ace, is better than Stroman.
Rick Hahns League
Brain genuis who gave up Tatis jr. I wonder what the return was
Yeah because no other GM has ever lost a trade.
When he wasn’t even a top 200 prospect and only 17 while James Shields just won a ring. Every GM in the league makes that deal. Congrats on sounding stupid here.
Megatron, I’m having trouble finding which ring you’re referring to. Care to elaborate, you immense idiot?
He’s thinking the 2015 royals because shields had been on the year priors pennant winner. However, big game james signed a 4 year deal that off season. So shields dies not have a ring. But his premise is correct, Tatis was not a hot prospect. He was a no body.
Tatis was a lottery ticket that hit.
Every last team has a trade like that in its history. At the time, Tatis was a lottery ticket. I didn’t like the trade because it was Shields and I thought the Sox would come back down, but giving up Tatis didn’t bother too many. And that “brain genius” also got Eloy and Cease for Quintana, signed Tatis’ younger brother, and has locked up their core to team-friendly extensions. He made a bad trade, sure, but overall, he’s done pretty well.
Yeah, when people bring up Tatis it’s like they seize any opportunity to rip someone apart for not being perfect. The overall ability of their system and poeple to judge talent has been rather poor when it comes to draft choices for some reason… call it bad luck… the core of their rebuild almost entirely from 3 trades. But still, those trades absolutely brilliant… unless someone has a totally unforgiving mindset and relishes being a hater, hard to say Hahn and co haven’t done a great job overall.
Tatis Jr who will be a free agent before any of the Sox core will be because the Padres blew their load on Manny “Johnny Hustle” Machado and Eric “literally less useful than a turd” Hosmer
The Tatis Jr. trade made since at the time since Anderson was ahead of him to be called up and the Sox were trying to compete that year where they needed a veteran pitcher in that rotation.
aaron nola got around 60 mil/5 yrs? so a giolito extension would be around that figure but probably a little less.
That’s a good deal to base Giolito’s hypothetical extension off of, but you have to remember that pitchers got paid this offseason. Keuchel got 3 for 55, Gibson got 3 for 30, Lyles got 2 for 18, etc. My point being, that even though none of these guys are near as good as Nola, they got paid just about like him annually. I can see Giolito going for a deal more along the lines of Zach Wheeler, but just a little less maybe 6 for 100. And the only reason that he is getting paid that much is because of the inflation in the market this past season.
You also have to remember that those pitchers were FA’s.
I hope the White Sox front load the next several deals because as of right now most of these current deals are heavily back loaded. In 5 years the Sox will have massive salary problems.
No they wont lol. They were a Top 10 payroll team for years in the 00s and 10s. Reinsdorf owns the Bulls and White Sox. This year still doesn’t match their record high in 2013. These contracts are smart. Look at the Cubs and Astros. They are going to start losing their players next offseason.
Yeah the Sox have 4 players that even have contracts that run until 2025 and three of them have club options. Not sure where these “Massive salary problems” are they’ve played the payroll game about as well as you can.
Hahn and Williams like to trade those contracts while they still have 2-3 years left on them, so back loading will be another teams problem.
@stymeedone
And when was the last time the Sox traded one of those contracts?
@richard dangler
The Sox won’t front load any contract. Ever wonder why contracts don’t get front loaded in MLB? Think about it.
As for the Sox having massive salary problems in 5 years, you do realize Abreu’s, Kuechel’s, Grandal’s, TA’s, EE’s, Colome’s, and Herrera’s contracts will be off the books by then. In fact, in ’25, there are 4 contracts on the books worth just under $64MM, assuming 3 of the 4 get their options picked up. Pretty sure they’ll be OK with the payroll, unless JR suddenly goes crazy with spending. And do you really think that’s going to happen, based on JR’s history?
You struggle with the concept of how pre-arb contracts work and are typically structured.
When it comes to speculating on extensions, what about the other MLB teams? At least let Jerry get a fresh supply of checks before inking another!
Who?
Absolutely not worth an extension yet. See how he does in another year or three.
@halofanatic
One year, yes. Three? No.
It will only take another year to know.
WTH no poll???
Giolito really had two extreme seasons where he looked pretty awful in 2018 and looked like an Ace in 2019. It’s one of those situations where you hold off and either look smart if he regresses or you’re kicking yourself for not extending him before he establishes himself as a top end starter. Doesn’t seem like the type of guy that’ll chase the money however.Think the Sox will eventually get some sort of extension done so long as he’s healthy and productive.
He threw a shutout in Houston and another at home against the Twins. Dude just needs to stay healthy.
He was awful in 2018 but an Ace this year is kinda of risky
How much? About 7/200 mil.
Perhaps philosophical, but have starters put together 2 consecutive solid seasons with around 30 starts before taking the extension dive. Gladly pay more later. It would also be valuable to see how he or any pitcher performs in meaningful games down the stretch. Some guys shine when there is no pressure and get psyched out when playoff aspirations on the line.
I’d want to see it again
I’m a huge Giolito fan.
But his history of nagging arm issues would give me pause about any extension.
I’d pass, and let him go through arbitration.
Lucas Giolito had a ruff start to his Career but he was Ranked the best prospect in baseball at one point for a reason. He is the real deal and he is just a former top prospect living up to the hype and expectations people had on him. He clearly made some big adjustments last year with his delivery and dominated some of the best teams in the game. i would extend him now. you see the contracts these pitchers are getting now these days. All the advanced stats show that Giolito can repeat his success from 2019. Its funny some people like to hate on the guy. his win/loss record meant nothing last year. Its getting obvious that people are jealous the White Sox got 3 young pitching studs with Giolito, Kopech and Cease who i think really gets underneath the skin of cubs fans. The Cubs had no where near the pitching talent during their rebuild that the White sox have and the Cubs have been facing the reality for years now that it ruined their rebuild. Everything about Giolito screams Ace!
Anyone commenting on players they’ve never watched play need to shut up about stats. Period.
Next year they could want to extend Cease!, Madrigal! Andrew Vaughn could dominate this year and they might want to lock him up to sign a long term extension. After this year Giolito could be one of the BEST pitchers in baseball. Dylan Cease could breakout season this year. I would not want to wait until the end of the year when either one of them could be influenced by the other to turn down a contract
I’d love to see him get extended, but I have a feeling it’s not going to happen, not this year anyway. I think they’re going to make sure he’s not a one year wonder before extending him.
I really hope I’m wrong. I would love to be wrong in this case. And I would love to see similar numbers Nola got extended.
He doesn’t deserve what Nola got yet. Nola had one so-so season, but has otherwise be a minimum No. 2 starter his entire time in majors. And the medical history is cleaner.
I don’t see why waiting a second year is a problem, especially after he entered spring training with an arm issue. People keep ignoring his sketchy medical history. It’s an issue.
Wasn’t it a ribcage muscle as opposed to his arm?
Sox should wait until the middle of the season to worry about an extension. Lets see if he can replicate what he did for most of last season (- last July, when everyone on the Sox seemed to slump)
If I am confident,trust in myself and know that one year wasn’t a fluke I wouldn’t sign any extension..
Look at what just happened to yelich and what will happen to mookie. They came up same time and sure yelich made a few million earlier then mookie by signing the extension but mookie trusted in himself, took the rookie contract pay and will benefit by getting an estimated 175-200m higher contract. Not to mention this year alone in arbitration he will make more than yelich did on that contract.
Don’t get me wrong its a great move for the Sox signing Eloy and Robert to their extensions but if I where them I wouldn’t have done it. especially those 2guys who had huge signing bonuses originally.
Well, it looks like he got a nice pay bump for 2021, now let’s see how he does without James. That said, I think the Sox are going after another SP. I thought they would grab Kuber, but now must go big with Bauer. LOL. However, we will never have a 4 man rotation in a long season and with the new reliever rule. Most teams won’t, and Bauer’s top 4 is a lot about him and not the team. But, maybe it’s me.