’Twas the winter of 2015-16. Jason Heyward wasn’t the best-available player in a well-stocked free agent class. But he was a high-quality performer and still tantalizingly young (26). While hardly a traditional corner outfield star due to his middling power, Heyward was well-established as a quality hitter and superlative defender and baserunner.
The debate raged long before the offseason arrived: how much can you really pay for a player like this? All agreed he was good. But the traditionalists howled at the notion of a right fielder who hadn’t even hit forty home runs over the prior three seasons landing a premium contract. The analytically minded countered that, well, runs are runs regardless of how they’re added or prevented. Heyward was a 6.9 rWAR / 5.6 fWAR performer in 2015. With exceptional glovework and a steady OBP, Heyward seemed to be a high-floor player who might have some ceiling as well.
[RELATED: Jason Heyward & Chris Davis Have Two Of The Worst Free Agent Contracts … In Different Ways]
We predicted that Heyward would earn $200MM over a full decade — second-most in a rather well-stocked free agent class. That didn’t quite happen, but the real deal was actually more favorable to Heyward than the one we had guessed. He landed $184MM over an eight-year term and also got two opt-out opportunities (which was worth something at the time the deal was struck, even if they weren’t exercised). The deal delivered a nice $23MM AAV over quite a lengthy term.
Now that we’re all reacquainted with the contract as it turned out … let’s try to remind ourselves of the state of play in the market when it was struck. At the time of the pact, there were hints that the Cubs may not have been the high bidder. The Nationals supposedly had the top offer on the table, though we may presume it’d have been deferred. The incumbent Cardinals were also known to be in pursuit. And the Angels and Giants were still involved in rumors right up until the end.
So … what would things have looked like if Heyward had landed elsewhere?
Nationals
Whoa … would the Nats have hoisted the commisioner’s trophy last fall had they signed Heyward? That’s obviously not something that can be assessed fairly given the innumerable butterfly effects potentially at play. But the counter-factual does actually present a pretty similar situation to what actually happened in 2019. In right field, the Nationals got solid but hardly otherworldly work out of Adam Eaton — another left-handed hitter whose skillset is rather similar to that of Heyward.
More interesting to consider is the fact that the Nats probably wouldn’t ever have dealt for Eaton had they already acquired Heyward. Eaton landed in D.C. after the team missed on its effort to acquire Chris Sale for the White Sox. The swap cost the Nationals pitchers Lucas Giolito (reimagine 2019 with him on the staff), Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning. Of course, Eaton has been much more affordable than Heyward this whole time. Who knows if the Nats would’ve inked Patrick Corbin last winter had Heyward been on the books.
Ultimately, the Washington organization has deep enough pockets that it would’ve been just fine with an underperforming $23MM salary on the books — not unlike the Cubs. At the same time, also not unlike the Cubs, the Nats have been focused on getting and staying just under the luxury tax line, so this deal would’ve been a constant nuisance that would’ve interfered with any number of lower-cost veteran signings and acquisitions over the past several seasons.
Cardinals
Much like the Nats, the Cards eventually made a big deal for a somewhat similar player. One winter after missing on Heyward (despite reportedly offering as much or more as the arch-rival Cubbies), the Redbirds reversed the talent flow by inking former Chicago center fielder Dexter Fowler. The switch-hitting Fowler wasn’t nearly as expensive as Heyward, but his own five-year, $82.5MM deal has worked out about as poorly. The Fowler contract probably wouldn’t have been signed had Heyward been around, but this is probably to the Cardinals’ benefit since the Heyward deal features a bigger and longer hit. Perhaps the Cubs would’ve ended up retaining Fowler had they missed on Heyward. You could argue over the details, but it’s probably not far from a wash.
Of course, the Cards went without either of those players in that 2016 campaign … which helped open the door to the memorable shooting star of Jeremy Hazelbaker. It’s tough to say whether there were significant long-term effects on the way the Cards’ outfield picture developed. Going without Heyward in 2016 opened more playing time for outfielders Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and, to a lesser extent, a pre-breakout Tommy Pham. Perhaps one or more would’ve been shipped out of town earlier had Heyward been retained. Maybe Pham’s breakout would’ve occurred elsewhere, thus eliminating his successive trades (to the Rays and then to the Padres), though it’s impossible to say that with any degree of confidence.
Angels
We don’t know whether the Halos were really strong pursuers of Heyward, but it’s worth considering what might’ve been. The club ended up foregoing any big free agent splashes that winter. (It had already acquired Andrelton Simmons.) Adding Heyward surely wouldn’t have forestalled the string of four-straight losing seasons, given the way he has played. But it might’ve prevented the Angels from eventually trading for and then extending Justin Upton. And it certainly could’ve gummed up this winter’s signing of Anthony Rendon.
Giants
Likewise, it’s not entirely clear that the Giants were heavily involved in bidding up Heyward’s price, but the team clearly had some real interest. The San Francisco org splashed a lot of regrettable cash that winter regardless. It had already inked Jeff Samardzija and ended up signing Johnny Cueto after Heyward landed with the Cubs. The Giants did find a rather direct alternative to Heyward, inking Denard Span to a three-year, $31MM pact. That didn’t quite go as hoped but was hardly a significant disaster. Suffice to say that having Heyward on the books would’ve further complicated an already difficult stretch for the organization.
Cubs
Ah, yes. The Cubs. Lauded at the time by some for landing Heyward for less than others would’ve paid — really, the deal was probably right at the market rate, give or take — the Cubbies have obviously not benefited from the signing.
Remember how we started this post? The debate over paying out a non-slugging right fielder. Consider these contemporaneous comments. On the one hand …
On the other …
To some degree, neither turned out to be right. And the lack of power was largely beside the point. Heyward did top twenty long balls in 2019, but he was still an average-or-worse hitter for the fourth-straight year. It was certainly his best offensive season for the Cubs … but also the team’s own worst effort in this four-year span. No, the Cubbies haven’t exactly dominated the National League over the span of this deal, but they did capture that elusive crown in 2016.
So does the World Series justify it? Eh … this isn’t as clean an analysis as the Gleyber Torres-for-Aroldis Chapman “you do what it takes!” situation. Heyward was terrible in 2016 and even worse in the postseason, when he contributed just five hits and a walk over fifty plate appearances.
There’s no two ways about it: the deal hasn’t worked out at all as hoped. Heyward has by all accounts worked hard and been a total class act, as ever. And he has trended back up with the bat, which is somewhat promising with regard to the final three seasons of the deal. But the net return to the Cubs — 7.1 rWAR and 6.0 fWAR — has not remotely justified the outlay.
Anybody that has watched the Chicago organization operate these past two winters can see the effects of this contractual miss. The Cubs have decided not to move past the luxury tax line, so every dollar going to Heyward has been another buck that couldn’t be allocated elsewhere. Of course, the Heyward whiff isn’t the only one that has stung in recent years, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently examined. And it’s worth emphasizing the he’s still just 30 years of age and still capable of contributing. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could even morph back into a quality regular. All things considered, this contract certainly didn’t single-handedly obstruct the Cubs’ dynasty-that-wasn’t … but it certainly played a leading role.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
jdgoat
Fascinating read. I hope you guys are able to pump out lots of content like this over the break.
AssumeFactsNotInEvidence
JDGOUT screw you bro! You Toronto front office loving shrill!
Sorry I’m filling in for WeAreAllJustGuestsHere today. I know I’m not funny nor useful but WAJGH insisted someone kept up his non humorous attacks!
johnrealtime
I really liked how he brought in the old comments. I sometimes like to go back to old signings like this to see how it played out in the comments. Cool to have it in-article
neo
I thought there was a mistake as I don’t see comments, just odd lack of anything where it seems they might be inserted. Perhaps it’s an app issue? You website folks get all the perks.
Jeff Todd
Thanks!
its_happening
Thanks Jeff. Fascinating to look back on that off-season and the dilemmas each team faced.
Slayer666
Hey Jeff I was wondering what part his fielding had in this as well in your opinion.
Kayrall
I really don’t understand how you can question or suggest that a team shouldn’t have signed/traded for a player when that player contributes non-zero magnitude to a championship ring. So many immeasurable factors go into that win and if a player contributes at all, it is worth the commitment.
User 4245925809
Maybe Epstein saw Hayward as a type of JD Drew, only younger. Difference was Drew had a history of putting up strong numbers not built on hype, even if he was several years older when he was given his 5y contract years back.
When a players is given extravagant money, such as heyward was. there needs to be more than just hype driving it from so called analytical experts. and we’ve seen it often.
bigdaddyt
You guys have been all over this guy the last 2 days
Jeff Todd
Just happenstance … had Heyward in my mind so I did a post and video. We’ll move on, don’t worry!
jetup12
Epstein must have forgotten his genius hat that day.
Halo11Fan
Angel fans were screaming the Angels didn’t sing Crawford or Heyward.
Some fans are screaming they signed Rendon. Go figure.
agentx
Good point. There could be a similarly interesting counter-factual to be written about Crawford, though I don’t recall quite as many teams pursuing him as aggressively.
Angels & NL West
Im still trying to decide if I would rather have signed Heyward vs Upton…
okiguess
For their $184 million, the Cubs landed Baseball History’s largest singles hitter .. and not a very good one at that.
bush1
As was pointed out in the article they were the highest bidder and had the unfortunate luck to sign him because he wanted to be a Cub. Pays off to be a less desired team sometimes.
bush1
*weren’t the highest bidder
SFGiantsGallore
Jeff, great read as always! How long does it take you to write this up? Jw
lowtalker1
He was and is trash. Dextor frowler is the sneaky good chip to have during that off season
Which the cubs had both
ABCD
More importantly, the Cubs signed Zobrist.
Interesting to note thatHeyward was signed to replace Fowler in CF. Kyle, Soler and Coghlan were to share the corner outfield spots and Kyle was going to be Jason Hammel’s personal catcher. When Dexter couldn’t agree with the O’s, he ended up back in the Cubs lap.
Took a look at the top 50 list from the 15-16 offseason. Not many position players on there worth having at this point. Kendrick was a diamond in the rough last year after bouncing around with different teams and positions and Upton has been inconsistent. Heyward is just as good as any of them at this point.
Yes, too bad Jason hasn’t had a season worth the contract and that he’s clogged up payroll flexibility, but he has not been a total zero and the Cubs have been more competitive these past four years than since the Santo, Fergie, Billy Williams days.
chitown311
aaaaaaand here come the Heyward apologists
bush1
aaaaaaand no one is making the Heyward signing to be good. Obviously it wasn’t. Unfortunately he took less to play with a desired team and the other teams lucked out. I guess better to be lucky than a team players want to play for sometimes. But whatever helps your Cubs are idiots narrative…
Kevin28786
How does a guy that big and strong not average 30-35 homers per year? His swing SUCKS, that’s why. I don’t think he’ll listen when people try to get him to change it, either, and that’s a big reason the Braves got rid of him.
braveshomer
I still blame the Braves for screwing him up…they didn’t help his swing at all. He had a great season and then the next season they forced him into the leadoff spot. He never seemed comfortable at it which is when everything started trending down…but man I was at opening day when it was a rare occasion a prospect made the roster rather than being delayed until May, whole stadium chanting his name and then hit a bomb first AB, it was awesome
TheReal_DK
For me, trading Gleyber Torres/Eloy Jimenez/Dylan Cease has proven to be a bigger loss than Heyward’s contract for the Cubs. Fans like to make him the scapegoat for their inability to add to this team, which is true in most aspects, but trading away such elite prospects really left them dry in that department. They no longer have the luxury of calling up cost affordable specs that make the type of impact Cub fans are used to seeing. It’s just been a cumulative effect of roster moves being made without much to show for it that has put the Cubs in the position they are now.
CubsFan73
Thank You!
Im tired of Cubs fans saying well Chapman brought the Cubs a WS. Wrong, he almost blew it for us. Losing Torres was HUGE the verdict is still out on Cease/Eloy trade.
In my opinion (know it doesnt mean much)
Trading Soler for Wade Davis stings alot also!
ChiSoxCity
The Torres trade was dreadful because the Cubs lost both players to the Yankees after a 3-month rental. Not a good luck. To be fair though, the Cubs wouldn’t have made it to the World Series without Chapman. They certainly wouldn’t have won it either. Their bullpen was absolute dogmeat, and compromised.
ChiSoxCity
*Not a good LOOK
ABCD
Yes, Rondon and Strop were injured after Chapman was acquired and they were not 100% going into the postseason. So it turned out well that they had Chapman and Maddon was right to ride him thru the playoffs. The only qualm I had with Joe’s usage of Chapman was panicking in Game 6 with a five run lead. Strop or someone else could have finished that game.
ChiSoxCity
Maddon did everything in his power to avoid a Cubbie Collapse, a.k.a., the “Curse”.
ChiSoxCity
Also, Rondon was compromised (pissed at the team and wanted out of Chicago), and Strop couldn’t get out of an inning without giving up runs. He’d usually get the first batter out, walk the second, then give up a base hit and a HR to blow a lead. Glad the Cubs finally got rid of him, but their bullpen might be even worse (whenever play resumes).
ABCD
Hey CubsFan, Soler is a DH that finally broke out in 2019. At least, Davis was lockdown in 2017.
its_happening
Do the Cubs win the WS without the Chapman trade? Do they win the WS at all if they stood pat on these deals? Odds are, probably not.
I’d also argue the Cubs won the Davis for Soler deal. A year ago he was barely starting material on a 90+ loss team.
ChiSoxCity
Soler’s always projected as a slugger with prolific power. The Cubs gave up on him too soon (led the AL in HRs 2019). Davis is no longer with the Cubs, and he stinks on top of that. Advantage Royals.
southpaw2153
Teams and fans, as well, often overvalue a player just because he is one of a handful of free agents during each offseason. Heyward was no exception. He wasn’t even worth half of what he received.
Anybody who watched him play before he hit free agency saw him for what he was/is…a decent ballplayer, but far from an impact player. Sabermatricians pumped this guy up to be a superstar when he clearly was not. Defense is extremely overvalued when it comes to a player’s worth.
Yes, Heyward is a good defensive player, and yes, defense is important, but it’s harder to find excellent offensive production than excellent defensive production. Theo bought into the hype and has been saddled with an expensive and onerous contract. Heyward should be making Brett Gardner-type money, not $23 million/yr.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Brett Gardner never entertained free agency with multiple suitors so one can argue that he’s being underpaid. Free agents get paid by what the market will bear. Supply and demand. Contract busts are easy to rationalize in hindsight.
mattcubs
Jason seems like one of the coolest dudes around, but yeah…Clearly the signing hasn’t worked out.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Adam Eaton as a pitcher was average as the position player he’s decent I guess. I guess in the long run the white Sox got away with highway robbery. He wasnt worth what the Nats gave up
pacman alan
Eaton was clutch all postseason. Nats don’t win the title without him. His affordability was the main reason why the Nats were able to sign or resign elite level starting pitchers. I would redo that trade 10x out of 10.
baines03
I never understood the analytical love considering defense is one of the first tools to go… with base running not far behind. To gamble that much money that his power would increase was foolish.
ChiSoxCity
Bingo!
ABCD
Yet Heyward’s baserunning and fielding are still good. It’s his bat that broke.
ChiSoxCity
Nobody’s saying Heyward can’t be useful. We’re saying he wasn’t a nine figure star-type player, and it should be a surprise to no one that he still isn’t. Imagine how good the Cubs could have been if they had kept Soler, Fowler, Chapman, Eloy and Cease. Even further, what if they managed to flip a few players for Verlander instead of Quintana and Castellanos. You can say what if’s aren’t relevant, but most GMs around the league wouldn’t have made the moves Epstein made. Heck, even I knew better than that, and I’m nobody.
abravesfan 2
The deal may not have worked out that great for the Cubs, but it was nowhere as disastrous as the Chris Davis deal. Also, the intangible of that mystical Heyward World Series Game 7 speech was at least worth mentioning.
While the power never manifested, J-Hey clearly showed the potential (and raw athleticism) for power if he ever fixed that swing…which turned him into a bit of a fool’s gold in the free agency market.
FattKemp
Every year in Fantasy I draft Heyward in one of the lasdt 2 rounds just in case he stands up, all 6’5″” of him, and swings the f***ing bat instead of leaning over like a puss and slapping it the other way.
daily phil
Can’t believe J-Hey is still only 30.
Balzenuf
I am just glad the Braves realized early that he wasn’t as good as he promised to be… Had they only realized that with Hector…
chitown311
I’m still waiting to hear from the “BUT HE MADE THAT SPEECH” sheep
bush1
Such a Cubs hater. Get a life.
chitown311
BAAAAAAAHHHHHHH says Bush1
jasondav
i would rather be a sheep than a hateful person like you.
bush1
Hateful for commenting against people who go out of their way to hate on everything about a team? Uh ok. Allowing people to talk crap Nonstop is the better way to go. Noted.
chitown311
BAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!
mbart33
Cubs needed a right fielder, and they won for the first time in 108 years- one of the best defense right fielder in the game, smart base runner, good teammate , lacks at the plate, but all in all, worth every penny
jstepanik
If Frank Wren was faced with the choice of extending EITHER Freeman or Heyward, he definitely made the right choice…
Snorgator
Heyward has always had a strange butterfly effect to him. If Oscar Tavares never died the cardinals probably never trade Shelby Miller for him, and the Braves never flip Miller for Dansby Swanson
the kutch
I was at a game at Wrigley in July 2016, v the Mets…Mid game, I seen Heyward (having his miserable season) throw James Loney (looked like he was carrying a piano on his back) at the plate to end an inning…When he arrived at the dugout, all 7 other position players were waiting for him, outside the dugout on the warning to to high give him…
I turned to my wife and told her I had never seen a team do that before, everyone outside the dugout, and I told her this team was winning the World Series because they “got it “
phillyballers
One has to think what if they went higher AAV and less years to be in a position to get in on the Machado and Harper FA year?
mvfreep
Hayward is garbage, always has been. LOL to the cubs for giving him the contract. Braves trades his sorry butt for a reason.
mvfreep
Might have the biggest hole in his swing ever.
Tapeman69
heyward and Fowler both suck so much,
Erik
Nonetheless the Heyward is wearing a ring at the end of the day. People aren’t looking at the fact that they witnessed the best WS they’ll ever see in their lifetime. Any amount of money was worth it. You can run with your jealous hate all you want like a White Sox fan but it doesn’t mean much to us diehards
PutPeteRoseInTheHall
goad the giants didnt get heyward
PutPeteRoseInTheHall
glad*
kenlorichapman
For the Cardinals it started with the tragic death of Oscar Taveras. No need for Heyward or Fowler if Taveras is around.
Mikel Grady
Looks like the Cubs signed a very big man. Jason Heyward is giving $100,000 to M.A.S.K. – Mothers Against Senseless Kilings – Chicago, which is gathering supplies and meals for families affected by the virus. The other half of the $200,000 will go to the Greater Chicago Food Depository.
basilisk4
Imagine if the Braves had paid Heyward $20MM+ a year for many seasons instead of Freddie Freeman, which seemed like a very real possibility for a period of time…
As a Braves fan, I remember before the Braves wisely traded Heyward to the Cardinals being terrified that they would break the bank to extend him. Many people who watched Heyward every day were not convinced that he was going to hit much — we saw the tremendous power and athletic ability, but we also saw the holes in his swing a lot of the time.