Nobody knows when the 2020 Major League Baseball season will begin, but we can still look forward to its start. With that in mind, we’ll continue our series on potential bounce-back players from each division, this time focusing on notable National League Central pitchers whose production fell off from 2018 to ’19.
Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Cubs:
Undoubtedly among the greatest relief pitchers in baseball history, Kimbrel’s numbers careened off a cliff in his first season as a Cub. In fairness, though, Kimbrel didn’t have a normal offseason before finally joining the Cubs on a three-year, $43MM contract. The 31-year-old flamethrower went without a deal until the first week June, and he never really got on track after debuting later that month. Kimbrel battled elbow issues and threw just 20 2/3 innings, over which he allowed 15 earned runs on 21 hits (including a whopping nine home runs) and 12 walks. Although Kimbrel did strike out 30 hitters and continue to throw upward of 96 mph, it wasn’t enough to overcome the other problems. Considering what the Cubs have invested in him, not to mention the losses their bullpen suffered in free agency, it’s a must for him to return to form this year.
Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Cubs:
Jeffress was a lights-out part of the Brewers’ bullpen in 2018, but last season represented an enormous step backward. In fact, it went so badly for Jeffress that the Brewers – then vying for a playoff spot – released him during the first week of September. Jeffress wound up with a ghastly 5.02 ERA in 52 innings and saw his typical fastball go from 95.3 mph in 2018 to 93.8. He also lost 4 percent on his swinging-strike rate, almost 10 percent on his strikeout rate, and 8 percent on his groundball rate. Consequently, he was only able to secure an $850K guarantee in free agency.
Trevor Bauer, RHP, Reds:
Bauer went from one of the absolute best pitchers in the sport two years ago to someone whom the opposition shelled after the Reds acquired him from the Indians at last summer’s trade deadline. The 29-year-old kept throwing hard, averaging about 95 mph on his fastball, but yielded 57 hits (including 12 home runs) en route to a 6.39 ERA in 56 1/3 innings as a Red. Between the two teams, his combined 4.48 ERA and 4.34 FIP were each more than two runs worse than the production he logged in 2018. Bauer also experienced an almost 7 percent fall in groundball rate, and he wasn’t any kind of Statcast hero, ranking near the middle of the pack in multiple important categories.
Pedro Strop, RHP, Reds:
Strop, 34, had several terrific years with the Cubs, but last season wasn’t one of them. His average fastball dropped by 1.5 mph (93.6), his walk rate spiked to its highest level since 2012 (4.32 BB/9) and he gave up more home runs than ever (1.3 per nine). All of those factors helped lead to career-worst run prevention totals for Strop (4.97 ERA/4.53 FIP), which came at a less-than-ideal time for the pending free agent. Strop’s subpar output last year stopped him from cashing in on the open market, but if he can rebound, the Reds will have a bargain on their hands at $1.825MM.
Chris Archer, RHP, Pirates:
MLBTR’s Steve Adams just took a more in-depth dive into the surprising struggles Archer has gone through as a Pirate. The former Rays standout has been a shell of himself since Pittsburgh acquired him from Tampa Bay in a July 2018 trade that looks incredibly lopsided in the Rays’ favor. But not all hope is lost for Archer, who – at the Pirates’ behest – grew too reliant on a sinking fastball that the opposition hammered. Archer bagged the pitch last summer and proceeded to post far better numbers during the second half of the season than he did before then, making the 5.19 ERA/5.02 FIP, 4.14 BB/9, 1.88 HR/9 and 36.3 percent groundball rate he put up over 119 2/3 innings look somewhat deceiving.
Derek Holland, LHP, Pirates:
Holland resurrected his career two years ago in San Francisco, only to fall apart between the Giants and Cubs last season. While Holland made 30 starts in 2018, he had such a rough time a year ago that he spent most of it in the bullpen, where he amassed 43 of 51 appearances. The 33-year-old limped to a 6.10 ERA/6.08 FIP with 8.75 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 and 2.13 HR/9, forcing him to settle for a minor league contract with Pittsburgh in the offseason.
Andrew Miller, LHP, Cardinals:
The first season as a Cardinal didn’t go well for Miller, whom they signed to a two-year, $25MM pact beforehand. The majority of his numbers, including a 4.45 ERA/5.19 FIP in 54 2/3 innings, went the wrong way. Miller, who barely walked more than one hitter per nine during his career-best season back in 2016, issued almost four and a half free passes last season. Moreover, he endured a 10.5 percent dip in groundball rate from 2018 and saw his home run-to-fly ball rate skyrocket to 21.6 percent. The 34-year-old has since dealt with some health troubles this spring, though the latest update on his status was encouraging.
Corbin Burnes, RHP, Brewers:
Burnes had a promising debut from Milwaukee’s bullpen in 2018. However, the spin rate darling’s propensity for surrendering homers proved to be his undoing last season. Burnes, 25, gave them up on 38.6 percent of fly balls, leading to an awful 8.82 ERA/6.09 FIP in 49 innings and canceling out a strong strikeout rate of 12.86 per nine and a borderline elite swinging-strike percentage of 17.2.
Corey Knebel, RHP, Brewers:
Knebel’s on the list for injury reasons, not ones related to performance. He was a huge piece of the Brewers’ relief corps from 2017-18, but Tommy John surgery kept him off the mound a season ago. Knebel, who underwent the procedure just under 12 months ago, had been lining up for an early May return before the game shut down, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. So, the longer baseball’s hiatus last, the better Knebel’s odds are of returning to his past role as a Brewers contributor over a full season.
PiratesFan1981
I think Holland is past being a MLB contributor. He’s declined drastically over the last several years. But he is a guy the Pirates likes to “fix”.
dcahen
Shannon – the pitching coach that liked to “fix” guys is gone, along with the manager, GM, bullpen coach, et all. We have no idea how they’ll operate, so everything you said is irrelevant. It’s a new year, if & when they play we’ll see on Holland & the rest of the guys mentioned. One thing almost for certain; a pitcher better have a low ERA if he wants to win games since chances are this Pirates won’t score over 4 runs per game very often.
richard dangler
MLB should do another round of winter meetings.
uncle mike
That sounds like a good idea to me too. Why not??? They’ve had several weeks to look at their own teams and probably already determined as close as they can evaluating who is going to make their 26 & 40 man rosters from who they currently have. With all of the time off because of this media driven panic, (My opinion-since more people have died from the regular flu around the world this past year than from the Coronavirus), plus the fact some teams like the Rookies might find realistic trade offers now for players such as Nolan Arenaldo. (Who is still at odds with the Rookies Front Office. What does everyone else think???
Willy Smith
At least 2 more months until baseball season. What to do?
smrtbusnisman04a
Trevor Williams, SP Pirates — His ERA ballooned by a run and a half to 4.60
jbeerj
Burnes figured it out. He’s going to be untouchable this year.
coldbeer
Hey guys remember when Trevor Bauer cut his hand in the 2016 ALCS and had to leave his start in the 1st inning. What a guy!
The Human Rain Delay
Crazy to think these guys have hobbies outside of baseball right?
Then a freak accident occurs
Then we tell them what a P.O.S they are 4 years later
I’ll pass on that
DMC511
Beautiful take
Maurice Lock
I would say Miles Mikolas, but I think 2019 was really who he is.
GreyShoes
Not that different than his great 2018 though. Remarkably similar except more balls went over the wall. Plus he eats innings, consistently hitting around 200IP. I don’t know why you think his 2019 was that poor, especially considering the other train wrecks on this list.
Maurice Lock
Yeah, those damn pesky HR allowed. What was I thinking? ERA UP TO 4.16 from 2.83. WHIP UP to 1.22 from 1.07. FIP UP to 4.27 from 3.28. IP DOWN. Like I said, 2019 was likely more the Mikolas we know. The league figured him out after 3 years of him facing inferior batters overseas.
cards81
Or it could be because of a widely known juiced baseball…as most pitchers numbers went up…but hey Maurice is just a troll on the cardinals so…
GreyShoes
That’s fair… all those stats you mentioned are a direct result of allowing more homeruns. Everything else the same, more homeruns would result in a higher ERA, WHIP, and FIP so I’m not really sure your point as a rebuttal to my comment.
Also why do you always seem so negative on these forums? This is my first time commenting, but it seems like you really hate the Cardinals and baseball in general. Is that fair to assume?
gbs42
Correction; The Archer trade has been incredibly lopsided in the Rays’ favor, not the Pirates’, as the article says.
stubby66
I honestly believe that the Brewers are going to have a rotation of Woodruff, Houser, Peralta, Burnes and Lauer with Shelby Miller as a sixth option that will very much contribute. Over all you watch this pitching staff is going to end up being a top 5 in the National league. Go ahead haters start ripping on me. I hope Jeffress all the luck this year. My choice of the biggest bounce back pitcher in the central would be Colin Rea though.
Bchsom16
What about Lindblom and Anderson who are making 8 million between the both of them this season and are out of options?
Peralta and Burnes may make spot starts but I’d imagine they’ll be multi inning weapons out of the bullpen
stubby66
Lindbolm could be the long man in the bullpen he has quite a bit of success in that too. Anderson needs to pick it up some to earn his role in rotation. He is either lights out or very hittable.
ABCD
Rea has already been optioned. He is stuck behind Chatwood and Alec Mills. Mills is out of options and was performing well in ST. Rea will have to keep it up in Iowa and outperform Alzolay and Cotton in case injuries happen to the Cubs’ starters. But with a shortened season, he may not get much of an opportunity at all.
stubby66
Well I gotta believe that Chatwood and Mills will stumble at some point . Hopefully that will open the door for him. He did pitched very decent at Iowa last year
darenh
That’s a spot-on list. Something fun to ponder while we wait