We’ve already looked at potential bounce-back candidates from the American League West and the AL East. Let’s now move to the AL Central and begin with established hitters who may be able to rebound in 2020.
Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins:
The free-swinging Rosario was a 32-home run hitter last season, but despite that, his fWAR plummeted from 3.5 in 2018 to 1.2. His overall line in 590 plate appearances (.276/.300/.500 – good for a 103 wRC+) was close to average, owing in part to the sport’s fifth-lowest walk rate (3.7 percent). And whereas Rosario received positive marks as a fielder in 2018, he notched minus-8 Defensive Runs Saved, a minus-5.6 Ultimate Zone Rating and the game’s worst Outs Above Average mark (minus-17) a year ago.
Jose Ramirez, 3B, Indians:
Ramirez was one of the most valuable players in baseball from 2017-18, though a slow start and a 5 percent-plus drop in walk rate last year doomed the switch hitter to a mediocre .255/.327/.479 line in 542 plate appearances. That said, Ramirez still finished with 23 homers, 24 steals and 3.3 fWAR, so he wasn’t exactly a drain on Cleveland’s lineup. And Ramirez was infinitely better after the All-Star break (176 wRC+ in the second half, 68 in the first), giving the Indians hope he’ll be at his best from the get-go this year.
Franmil Reyes, DH/OF, Indians:
While Ramirez came alive in the second half of the season, Reyes was somewhat disappointing after the Indians acquired him from the Padres in July. The 24-year-old still concluded with 37 HRs, but he saw his wRC+ (109) drop by 20 points from the prior season and his on-base percentage go down by 30 points. In all, he was a .249/.310/.512 hitter. Nevertheless, the powerful 24-year-old did rank in baseball’s 98th percentile in hard-hit rate and its 99th percentile in average exit velocity.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH, Tigers:
Cabrera is undoubtedly one of the greatest hitters of all-time, but it’s fair to say he’s nowhere near the offensive force he was during his halcyon days. Thanks in part to knee problems, the 36-year-old was pedestrian at the plate in 2019, when he batted .282/.346/.398 with 12 home runs and a career-low ISO (.116) across 549 appearances. Cabrera also posted one of the lowest walk percentages of his career (8.7) and, according to Statcast, saw his average exit velocity fall by 4 mph and his hard-hit rate drop by 10 percent compared to the numbers he logged during an injury-shortened 2018. Regardless of whether Cabrera rebounds, the Tigers aren’t going to contend in 2020. However, it would be reassuring for the team to see a glimpse of vintage Cabrera, who’s still owed $132MM through 2023.
C.J. Cron, 1B, Tigers:
One of Cabrera’s newest teammates in Detroit, Cron’s coming off a so-so season with the division-rival Twins. Although Cron did hit 25 home runs, the type of production he recorded as a Ray the previous season wasn’t really there. He wound up with a .253/.311/.469 line (101 wRC+, down from 123 in 2018) over 499 trips to the plate. There were some positive signs, though: Cron’s strikeout rate went down by 4.5 percent, his swinging-strike percentage declined by roughly 2 percent and he was a Statcast darling, ranking near the top of the league in several categories – including hard-hit percentage (82nd percentile), average exit velocity (84th) and expected weighted on-base average (86th).
Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Tigers:
Candelario was a 2.5-fWAR player in 2018, his first full season in the majors, but devolved into a replacement-level performer last season. The switch-hitting 26-year-old batted a weak .203/.306/.337 with eight homers in 386 PA, and the Tigers banished him to the minors for a good portion of the season because of his uninspiring output at the sport’s highest level. Statcast didn’t offer any reasons for hope, either, ranking Candelario in the game’s 17th percentile in xwOBA, its 24th percentile in hard-hit rate and its 31st percentile in average exit velocity.
Salvador Perez, C, Royals:
The typically durable Perez, 29, didn’t play at all last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, though it seems he’s coming along well in his recovery. Assuming he does stay on track, the Royals will have to hope for better numbers than what the highly respected six-time All-Star offered when he last took the field in 2018. Back then, Perez registered an unspectacular .235/.274/.439 line in 544 PA and earned bottom-of-the-barrel grades as a pitch framer; however, he did throw out an incredible 48 percent of would-be base stealers.
Maikel Franco, 3B, Royals:
Once a quality prospect, Franco seldom lived up to the hype in Philadelphia from 2014-19. Last season was especially rough for Franco, who hit a disastrous .234/.297/.409 in 428 attempts en route to minus-0.5 fWAR. The rebuilding Royals then bought low on Franco in free agency, signing him for a $2.95MM guarantee. Franco’s still just 27, and he’ll be eligible for arbitration in 2021, so he’s worth a shot for Kansas City.
Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Royals:
O’Hearn was fantastic during his 170-PA major league debut in 2018, but things fell apart over a much larger sample size last season. The 26-year-old amassed 370 PA and stumbled to a .195/.281/.369 showing. A 63-point drop in batting average on balls in play (.230) didn’t help, though, and O’Hearn did put up above-average exit velocity and hard-hit marks. However, he only ranked in the league’s 24th percentile in xwOBA (.308, compared to a .279 real wOBA).
Cabrera came into camp slimmed down and in-shape. Looks good.
Miggy has been bashing this spring….hopefully it can carry over to the regular season.
Came into camp looking beautiful last year too. Unfortunately, 36 is old when a guy didn’t focus on health during his youth. Over under, 110 games? Under. OPS 800? Under. 20 Homeruns. Under.
Best hope, maybe, just maybe, he really learns to poke the ball through holes and Gardenhire pulls him for a pinch runner early and often.
We can only hope pride pulls him through
(and up)…..
He came into came heavier then usual last year with the thought it would give him more power but it just put more pressure on his bad knee. So this spring he has come in significantly lighter trying to keep weight off of his knee so he can stay healthier and get back some power that way. But to say he “came into camp looking beautiful last year too” is just a false statement
I’d take the over, I go to Lakeland for a week every spring, visit sister at night watch Tigers in day. He looks like vintage Miggy right now
Can I use your expertise for my fantasy team? Team name : love to talk, hate to research, no clue whatsoever
I hope so. He’s been playing well. Unfortunately, I feel like it’s the same story every spring.
having your biggest rebound candidate be a guy as good as Eddie is a great “problem” to have
I mean if we gonna start the season semi soon why not start a series on potential breakout candidates for each team
Like Padres Dinelson Lamet, Frenchy Cordero, Jason Vosler, Javy Guerra, Pierce Johnson could do an analysis of how they’re doing this spring. Get fans familiarized with less common names on teams.
Pass
Smallworldofsports apparently.
Don’t like it don’t read it then.
Still pass
WAR, what good is it for ? When a guy hits .276 with 32 HR and 109 RBI yet he needs to bounce back ? Meh.
Absolutely nothin….say it again!
Because batting 4th didn’t help Rosario at all in getting those 109 RBI’s? Rosario had a .800 OPS and 106 OPS+ last season, but in 2017 and 2018, he had a .819 OPS and 117 OPS+. So yea, he technically had a down year.
1978 called it wants its stats back
I wanna see another triple crown
Yes sir brother!
From Miggy?
Uhhh Eddie Rosario was just fine last year. The hell do you want from a guy?
Fewer outs.
Agreed some of those stats are ridiculous. A guy hits 270 with 25 bombs and 100 RBI and they rake on him. What do they want? Take a team full of those guys any day.
“They” want him to walk a lot, field like Brooks Robinson and run like the wind. Just being Frank Howard isn’t enough anymore, though I will never forget the pinch hit
HR Howard hit in Detroit on a Monday night baseball national TV telecast that George C. Scott (actor) narrated…..
The first Tigers game I remember watching was a “Beer Night” against Cleveland. Frank came off the bench to put one in the seats to give them the lead. Boy, did that crowd go wild. I wonder if that’s the game you are referring to.
jeez imagine Howard if he were playing today, with all the exercise routines and supplements nowadays, he’d be bigger than Judge!
I would say that Marwin Gonzalez or Byron Buxton may be a better fit for the Twins in this article. In term of O’Hearn, I am super pumped to see if he cab bounce back. The guy hits baseballs hard!
Ohearn did the unthinkable and drank jobu’s rum last year.
He can mash like Pedro Cerrano. Pedro warned him not to.
Agree on marwin but Buxton had his best year yet so not “bounce back”
Oh forgot to mention Marwin was on the cheater squad so prob won’t ever see those kind of numbers again
Jose Ramirez already bounced back in the second half. His batted ball profile in the first half of the season was almost identical to what it always was, and he was so good in the second half that you’d have to think he’s already “back.”
You can never say never, but he should be fine.
I don’t think it’s necessary to write ‘minus’ AND use the hyphen when discussing negative defensive value. A dude can be worth minus 5.6 runs or he can be worth -5.6 runs. I don’t know why this bugs me so much. It just does. So knock it off!
Some of these are injury bounce back candidates. Perez of course, will be interesting to see how his presence affects the rest of the lineup too. Rosario had an injured ankle I think, screwed up his swing and his attempt at defense. Cron was having a decent year until the thumb injury. Hard to swing with a messed up thumb. Let’s hope Miggy can flash something from the past – always a pleasure to watch a surefire HOFer, enjoy while you can.
Salvador Perez is great defensively but has not been the best hitter. His k to walk is very bad.
Jose Ramirez will bounce back, and was still serviceable last season. He is too good of a hitter not too.
Miguel Cabrera has been declining, he strikes out alot now, not like the Cabrera of old, going to be 38 I think, not expecting a bounce back.
I hope Franco surprises, he is a decent hitter to begin with.
The old English D might stand for dangerous this season. A lot of young players knocking on the door. Some established players that are capable of going to a higher level. First time I saw Cabrera at the plate this season, I didn’t know who he was. I seen both of his wind aided homers off from Cole. Tigers might be a lot more exciting this season.
It would be hard to not be more exciting. The lack of offense last year made me change the channel if they were down by 3 runs. Cron and Schoop should add some much needed power. Hopefully Reyes and Jones will be able to hit for average. Candelario and Stewart really need to step up, or they will be stepped over.
Should’ve added Domingo Santana and made the list 10 instead of 9
Eddie Rosario doesn’t deserve to be on this list. .276/32/110 is a pretty good year. He would have been better if he hadn’t been injured later in the season. Rosario is capable of being a good defender but he wants to be the hero too often and misses cut off men.