In case you missed previous installments in this series, we looked at AL West hitters and pitchers seeking bounce-back seasons in 2020. We’ll now turn our attention to the AL East and eight notable position players looking for better things this year…
Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox:
Benintendi, then a premier prospect, made his debut in 2016. He has been fairly valuable since then, especially in 2018 (.290/.366/.465, 4.4 fWAR), but his production took a tumble last season. Despite a 10 percent jump in hard-hit rate (via FanGraphs), Benintendi managed a so-so .266/.343/.431 line with 13 homers and 10 steals in 615 plate appearances. A 6 percent spike in strikeout rate and a 4 percent jump in swinging-strike rate certainly didn’t help matters. Of course, Benintendi logged similar bottom-line production in 2017, so maybe this is just who he is. But the Red Sox are surely hoping for production along the lines of 2018 (or better than that), especially considering their offense has lost former centerpiece Mookie Betts.
Mike Zunino, C, Rays:
After an up-and-down tenure with the Mariners, the former No. 3 overall pick joined the Rays in a headline-grabbing trade in November 2018. But Year 1 as a Ray couldn’t have gone much worse offensively for Zunino, who batted a miserable .165/.232/.312 with nine home runs and a typically high strikeout percentage (33.9) over 289 plate appearances. Zunino did put up more encouraging Statcast numbers (.271 expected weighted on-base average, compared to a .235 real wOBA), but he didn’t exactly stand out in that regard. If there’s a saving grace, it’s that Zunino performed well behind the plate, throwing out 39 percent of would-be base thieves and finishing near the top of the league in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric. Considering his defensive abilities, Zunino doesn’t have to thrive at the plate to provide value to his team, but he does have to be a lot better than he was last season.
Joey Wendle, INF/OF, Rays:
Wendle’s terrific first season with the Rays in 2018 seemed to fly under the radar, but he wasn’t able to build on it last year. With a .231/.293/.340 line over 263 PA, his OPS plummeted more than 150 points, while his hard-hit percentage fell 5 percent, per FanGraphs. In fairness to Wendle, though, his season got off to a terrible start because of injuries. He suffered a strained left hamstring and a broken right wrist in April.
Jose Martinez, 1B/OF, Rays:
Following an offseason trade, Martinez is a Ray now after he spent the first four seasons of his MLB career in St. Louis. Martinez was typically an outstanding hitter with defensive defects as a Cardinal, but his effectiveness at the plate waned to a significant degree last season. In his final campaign with the Cards, the 31-year-old recorded a .269/.340/.410 line – good for a league-average wRC+ of 101 (down from 127 in ’18) – across 373 PA. Compared to the previous season, his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and strikeout percentage each made noticeable changes for the worse. Nevertheless, the Rays are banking on Martinez’s strong track record winning out in 2020.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH, Yankees:
Stanton’s on this list for injury – not performance – reasons. The former NL MVP continued to handle opposing pitchers last year (.288/.403/.492), but he took just 72 trips to the plate on account of various injuries. If healthy, there’s not much doubt Stanton will hit in 2020. Problem is that he’s dealing with yet another injury – a Grade 1 right calf strain – that could shelve him for the start of the season.
Miguel Andujar, 3B, Yankees:
Andujar joined Stanton as one of the many Yankees whom injuries cut down in 2019. Shoulder troubles held the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up to 12 games in his sophomore season, during which Gio Urshela usurped his starting job at third base. The 25-year-old Andujar now figures to see time at third, first, outfield and DH, but considering his limitations as a fielder, his value will be tied to his bat. If Andujar can return to being the type of offensive player he was two years ago, when he slashed .297/.328/.527 with 76 extra-base hits in 606 PA, it’ll be a boon for the Yankees.
Travis Shaw, 1B/3B, Blue Jays:
Shaw combined for 7.1 fWAR with the Brewers from 2017-18, but they non-tendered him after last season, leading him to take a one-year, $4MM offer from the Blue Jays. Despite his recent success, it was understandable that the Brewers bailed on Shaw, who endured an abysmal 2019. A 30-home run hitter in his two best campaigns, the 29-year-old totaled only seven in 270 PA last season and batted .157/.281/.270. He struck out 33 percent of the time along the way, representing nearly a 15 percent increase from the previous year, and saw his ISO drop more than 100 points. If you’re looking for at least a couple reasons for hope, Statcast indicates that the average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage Shaw recorded in 2019 weren’t much different than in previous years.
Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays showed their faith in Grichuk when they extended him on a four-year, $47MM guarantee last April, but they received little bang for their buck in 2019. Although he did mash 31 homers, Grichuk concluded with a below-average .232/.280/.457 line in 628 PA. At this point, it’s probably fair to expect inconsistency from the OBP-challenged Grichuk, who has thrice been a two- to three-WAR player but has also put up a couple disappointing seasons (including last year) since he debuted in 2014.
That Grichuk contract extension still makes absolutely no sense.
It ranks right up there with the Giants’ extension of Brandon Belt a few years ago. Overpaying a very average to slightly below average player unnecessarily. The fact that Shapiro of all people signed off on it makes it all the more perplexing.
The only benefit I see from extending his contract is it demonstrates to players they will invest in players they acquire. It also says to the young core that the team is willing to overpay to keep them long term.
That’s what I was thinking too. Prior to that extension they weren’t really committed long-term to anyone else at big money so this is really just a “show me” deal imo.
Why does Shapiro giving an extension to Grichull surprise you..For three years Shapiro and Atkins did diddly squat. Then people start talking about them not having their contracts extended and suddenly they become the wheeler dealers.. Give them multi year extensions and Shapiro and Atkins will revert to old form and we will be in for another “rebuild”
Does Grichuk really qualify if he’s trying to bounce back to 2015?
Grichuk posted a career high in hits, Homers, rbi and runs scored in 2019. He doesn’t belong on this list. He is coming off of a career year
Probably they were looking at the career-low BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, bWAR (and fWAR depending on your preference) and the career high strikeouts.
Also his worst year DRS and UZR-wise.
Definitely a lot of back to bounce to.
Fair point. However, the strikeouts were a clear inflation of more at bats. Then again, you could say the stats I mentioned before are inflated too. I guess overall he had a fairly average grichuk season
yeah, but that’s because he had significantly more playing time, not that he was better
Which is why I said the stats were inflated
He was good in 2018. It’s too bad that wasn’t a platform year for him, because he was pretty mediocre last year. He definitely earned his spot on this list.
How about Chris Davis from the Orioles that would be a BIG bounce back
He hasn’t been serviceable since 2016. The chances are null.
I hope he hits 40 HR with 120 RBIs with an average over .250
I get that it’s spring training, but Chris Davis has looked good so far.
I’ll take 10 HR’s, 40 RBI’s and a .200 average.
I think everyone, including Davis himself has given up on believing he can bounce back!
Chris Davis is more like a thud rather than a bounce.
He’s off the juice. He will never rebound. If he gets popped again he gets 162 game suspension and forfeits $23 million.
He was never on “juice”…
I don’t think Adderall is juice
Miggy
@ discodave
This article is about AL East hitters. Miguel Cabrera plays for the Tigers in the central
Smh. You know good and well who he meant.
Andujar hasn’t earned the same nickname as the greatest first baseman of the 2010s
Ya, his parents really messed up naming him Miguel without any indication he’d be better than Miguel Cabrera at baseball. I guess I shouldn’t go by “Matt” anymore because I surely will never measure up to Matt Holliday’s baseball career to earn that nickname.
In fairness, I had no idea Andujar went by “Miggy” and I thought of Cabrera immediately as well
No doubt he meant Melky Cabrera.
Miggy isn’t nearly as generic as Matt…. miguel Tejada never went by miggy Tejada. Neither did Miguel Cairo, miguel Montero, miguel batista, miguel olivo, miguel Rojas, miguel sano, miguel castro etc
I can’t tell if you’re joking or dense. Either way, his name is Miguel, Miggy is not a nickname like David Ortiz to Big Papì. If Big Papi went by “Dave,” would no other David allowed to be called Dave either?
* Big ‘Roidy
Wrong Miggy. He’s talking about Miguel Andujar, who was really strong for the Yankees in 2018 but lost most of 2019 with a shoulder injury. Definitely a bounce-back candidate.
I like how this post just totally ignored the Orioles.
Which Orioles hitter performed well at the plate in 2018 but not last year and is expected to hit well in 2020? The answer is Not a one. … let’s go through their current opening day lineup projection by Jason Martinez of MLBDEPTHCHARTS, who is usually spot on- hanser Alberto- broke out last year and was nothing but a fringe back up before ,,, trey Mancini- coming off of a career year… Anthony Santander is coming off of a career year… renato Nunez wasn’t even on a major league team in most of 2018. Neither was austin hays, Rio Ruiz or chance sisco… Jose iglesias had one of his better years at the plate in 2019… pedro severino had a career year last year after being a depth catcher most of his pro career… andrew Velazquez was hardly even in the majors in 2018… same with dwight smith… ramon urias wasn’t in the majors in 2018… and Chris Davis hasn’t been good since 2016, so he wouldn’t qualify as a likely bounce back candidate
The article does not state ‘likely’ bounce back. It says hitters looking for bounce back years, so Chris Davis would absolutely qualify, and given the 25lbs he put on in the offseason and nice start to spring training, would warrant an appearance here. It’s not like Grichuk had a stellar 2018 that he is trying to rebound to either. Throw a bone for the optics of equity, all I’m saying.
Davis hasn’t been good in 5 years. You don’t actually believe in his spring stats so far, do you?
Davis was looking to bounce back in 2016. Not 2020
Want to know what else will totally ignore the Orioles?! The win column in the standings!!!
You got a bunch of Oriole action in the “pitchers looking to bounce back” piece
Grichuk’s 2019 wasn’t a huge dropoff from the rest of his career. His bounce back happened when he picked up the pen to sign his extension.
Clever. Funny.
thos article is just a whole lot of proof of the flaws of analytics
People who need analytics are the ones that can’t watch a player and determine if he’s good or not.
You would have to watch (and remember) just about every game to even consider valuing your “eye test” over statistics. Stats are valuable in baseball.
Data is valuable in every sport and walk of life. However, common sense is equally important and some people just have an uncanny and accurate judge of talent.
I expect Andrew benintendi to bounce back this year. He tried to gain weight to increase his power for 2019 but that really did not work out well. I think he’s gone back to the swift Benintendi who should hit for a good average… I hope.
I hate to say it because I like Benintendi, but I do not think its a coincidence he had his best year in 2018, when you know what was going on, and 2017 & 2019 were similar.
I hope I’m wrong about him though.
There is no proof the sox did anything in 2018 yet. And his numbers were much better in 2017 than 2019. Aside from average his other numbers were better
MLB not disclosing any details of the Red Sox “cheating” investigation can be read one of two ways…..either they didn’t do anything, which is doubtful if in fact the league had no evidence it surely would have come out already…..or….they are guilty…we as fans just don’t know it yet and the details will be forthcoming when MLB makes them known……
As far as Benintendi…..solid but a ballplayer who is constantly hyped by his teams fans as elite, when he has not done anything to earn that description.
What about Mark Trumbo, hit 47 bombs 3 seasons ago. He’s still a FA, somebody give him a look.
He’d need to sign with an AL East team to make this list
Benintendi could fully break out this year.
maxsportingstudio.com/breakout-candidates-for-2020…
I think he was struggled to find his identity but that he has finally found it. His game should be based off of athleticism and gap power, not swinging for the fences
Benintendi is the next Trot Nixon. Good complementary player but not a star.
Analytics and the bozos who spout them have absolutely ruined baseball. No point in even playing the games. These geniuses know what is going to happen before the game is even played.
Analytics have become the best way to take a ballplayers inconsistencies, shortcomings, and lack of performance against older standards of excellence and spin them into positives.
No, the point is to help identify those flaws and try to improve them. These numbers can help explain why a player may be underperforming or overperforming. You come across as someone who fears change and progress. Hence why MWeller’s comment is quite funny.
You kids get off my lawn!
Grichuk is what he’s always been. Low contact, low on-base, might pop 30 guy. Even Grichuk probably thought wtf when his deal was offered. 5M as a 3rd/4th OF seems more reasonable for him.
He did pop 30. Take the “might” out of it…juiced ball or not.
When he signed his contract he was just a ‘might’. Big overpay no matter how we slice it.
Benintendi vaguely looks like Mark Wahlberg. That’s his entire value to the Red Sox. That’s it. He has until June to start hitting (he never has) or I’m calling for them to get rid of him.
what do you mean he never has hit well? he’s never been a below league average (worst season posted an OPS+ of 100)
You know you’re talking about a .277 ball player who plays in Fenway (Green Monster about 300 Ft) with gap power…. right?
Lets take the emotion out of this….
Why are you assuming that there was emotion in the first place? Im not even a Red Sox fan, I am a Yankees fan. The fact of the matter is that he has never had a below average season at the plate. His very worst season was exactly average. He posted a 123 OPS+ in 2018. To say he never started hitting well is just not correct.
From what I am aware of, Andujar is having a pretty good spring at the plate thus far. Havent heard much of his defense though. Interested to see how well he is doing at 3B/LF since the surgery
Trying to read this hurt my brain. fWar, Woba, fRC… do any of these tell us anything significant that BA, RBI, HR (and maybe OBP) haven’t told us for 100 years? Watching the game and looking at old reliable stats would have brought me to pretty much the same conclusion as all of this over-analyzed BS.
You’ve clearly missed so many memos
No he hasn’t….talkin the truth….using your eyes and senses might just be better than using Moneyball analytics to drive the complection of your team.
Ah yes, the old eye and senses test. Timeless and known for its accuracy. Also, if those stats/numbers confuse you, then you missed the memos explaining them. That’s my comment. You clearly aren’t good with numbers, reading, or criticism. More proof as to why many people on here think you are 3 bricks shy of a load.
Now your taking man…..
I don’t think there is any bounce back for Zunino,… this is who he is. Everyone is really waiting on his endless potential at the plate.
A bounce back for Zunino would be .220 BA, 25 HR and continued good defense. It’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.