MLBTR’s preseason series ends with National League West pitchers looking to bounce back in 2020. These 10 talented hurlers are hoping to get off the mat after difficult seasons…
Alex Wood, LHP, Dodgers:
The 29-year-old Wood is back in Los Angeles, where he experienced a great deal of success in 2015-18, after a Murphy’s Law season spent in Cincinnati. A back injury limited Wood to 35 2/3 innings of 5.80 ERA/6.38 FIP pitching last year after Cincinnati acquired him from Los Angeles expecting high-end production. Not unreasonable on the Reds’ part, as Wood had combined for a 3.29 ERA/3.36 FIP with 8.27 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate in 803 1/3 innings as a Brave and Dodger from 2013-18. The Dodgers brought him back on a low-risk guarantee ($4MM) in the offseason. They may strike gold if Wood can stay healthy.
Blake Treinen, RHP, Dodgers:
Like his new teammate Wood, Treinen was excellent in the recent past before falling off a cliff last season. Just two years ago, Treinen – then an Athletic – turned in one of the greatest seasons a reliever has ever had. But last year went awry for Treinen, who dealt with multiple injuries and logged subpar numbers. Treinen wound up with a 4.91 ERA/5.14 FIP and 9.05 K/9, 5.68 BB/9 and a 42.8 percent grounder rate over 58 2/3 innings. He lost his job as the A’s closer along the way, and they non-tendered him after the season. The hard-throwing Treinen landed on his feet, though, with a $10MM guarantee from the Dodgers.
Kyle Freeland, LHP, Rockies:
The soft-tossing Freeland was an NL Cy Young candidate back in 2018, so no one could have expected such a miserable showing in 2019. As it turned out, though, Freeland struggled so mightily that the Rockies optioned him to Triple-A at one point in the season. In the majors, he ended up with a brutal 6.73 ERA/5.99 FIP (compared to 2.85/3.67 the prior year) and 6.81 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9 across 104 1/3 innings, averaging fewer than five frames per start along the way. The 26-year-old’s severe drop-off was among the reasons the Rockies went from playoff team in 2018 to bottom-feeding club last season.
Wade Davis, RHP, Rockies:
Speaking of stunning declines from members of Colorado’s pitching staff … Davis continued his descent in 2019. In the second season of a three-year, $52MM contract, the once-untouchable Davis recorded an abysmal 8.65 ERA/5.56 FIP and walked more than six batters per nine over 42 2/3 innings. Davis also rated as one of Statcast’s worst pitchers, finishing toward the bottom of the league in average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average and strikeout percentage, among other categories.
Johnny Cueto, RHP, Giants:
Even though he only pitched 16 innings last season, it’s tough not to include Cueto on this list. The former ace is hoping for his first full season in a while, as injuries (including Tommy John surgery in 2018) held him to a mere 216 1/3 innings over the previous three years. During his halcyon days, Cueto – now 34 – used to throw around that many innings in a single season. The Giants still owe Cueto $47MM through 2021, so a rebound effort would be all the more welcome for them.
Kevin Gausman, RHP, Giants:
Gausman, whom the Giants added for $9MM in free agency, is in line to join Cueto in their rotation. The hope for the club is that he’ll fare much better than he did in 2019 – a disappointing season for a pitcher who has been consistently respectable. Gausman performed so poorly as a Brave that they placed him on outright waivers in August, but he did turn his season around as a strikeout-heavy reliever in Cincinnati. However, despite 10.03 K/9 against 2.81 BB/9, Gausman could only muster a 5.72 ERA (granted, with a much more encouraging 3.98 FIP) in 102 1/3 frames divided between the two teams.
Dereck Rodriguez, RHP, Giants:
Rodriguez came out of nowhere to serve as one of the most effective rookies in the sport two years, but the dreaded sophomore slump took him down last season. The 27-year-old split 2019 between the Giants’ rotation and bullpen, registering a woeful 5.64 ERA/5.69 FIP (he was at 2.81/3.74 in 2018) in 99 innings. Rodriguez underwhelmed in the strikeout/walk department along the way, putting up 6.45 K/9 with 3.27 BB/9, and lost about a mile per hour on his low-90s fastball. Whether he’ll work more as a starter or reliever is in question heading into the new season, whenever it begins.
Tony Watson, LHP, Giants:
The normally reliable Watson wasn’t quite himself in 2019, in which he tallied career worsts in ERA (4.17), FIP (4.81) and home runs per nine (1.5) through 54 innings. Watson walked just two per nine, and there were no dips in his velocity (93.5 mph) or swinging-strike percentage (12.7), yet he still slumped to the second-lowest K/9 (6.83) of his career. Surprisingly, same-handed hitters – whom he has usually contained – did the most damage against Watson, teeing off on him for a .391 wOBA. In other words, Watson turned the average lefty into Anthony Rizzo. The Giants are banking on a better showing from Watson in 2020, though, as they re-signed him for a $3MM guarantee during the winter.
Trevor Cahill, RHP, Giants:
Cahill is the fifth member of this Giants-heavy list, but this will be his first year with the club. He spent last year with the Angels, who signed him for $9MM after he revived his career with the Athletics as a starter during the previous season. However, Cahill couldn’t carry that renaissance into 2019; he instead spent the majority of the season in the bullpen and logged an ugly 5.98 ERA/6.13 FIP. Compared to 2018, Cahill struck out one fewer batter per nine (7.12 overall) and saw his groundball rate drop by almost 8 percent (45.9). He also yielded a whopping 2.2 homers per nine – up from a paltry .65 the prior season. Now, it remains to be seen whether Cahill will even crack the roster in San Francisco, which signed him to a minor league contract. If he does, it may be as a reliever.
Garrett Richards, RHP, Padres:
Richards has been quite valuable when he has taken the mound. The problem is that appearances from the oft-injured ex-Angel have been rare in recent seasons. He hasn’t even touched the 80-inning mark in a season since 2015, when he amassed a career-high 207 1/3. Richards totaled just 8 2/3 frames last season after returning from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in July 2018. Of course, the Padres knew they’d get little from Richards in 2019 upon signing him to a two-year, $15.5MM pact. They’re hoping the investment pays dividends this season.
Freeland and Davis have reasonable bounceback potential
As for the other Rockies who struggled last year…. yeah no it ain’t happening
Ain’t lookin too good in the minors either, sans Rolison. They’ve gotta start plucking more pitchers who grew up throwing in that altitude.
I dont know if it’s good or bad that the giants have half the people on this list
Half of those guys (Gausman and Cahill) were taken on precisely because they ARE bounce back guys. The Giants are hoping to hit paydirt and then possibly flip them at the deadline.
Cueto should be fine if his arm is fine; Rodriguez is probably a wash, but you never know; Watson ain’t closer material anymore, but he should be okay as long as he’s not injured.
Cueto got LIT UP by good hitting teams he faced when he returned last year. That also carried over to his cactus league work this spring. He looks terrible. And the rest of the Giants pitchers listed here are Worse. Lol
Have to ask how Freeland is a “soft tossing lefty, “when he sits 91-92.. hit 94 a number of times in 2019… I am sure the writer of these article played up to at least 12U
That was an inappropriate comment against the writer.. everyone is entitled to their opinion ..
Did you forget to switch to another account or…?
Kevin Durant’s in the forum!
Oh that’s too good
The average MLB fastball was 93.6 MPH. Freeland averaged 91.9 MPH. That ranked 78th/113 among all starters with at least 100 innings. Freeland definitley wasn’t a hard throwing lefty, and he soft tossing fits his description, especially when every team has about 5 pitchers who can hit 95+ MPH.
Well said
I mean he’s not throwing fire. He’s also not throwing like Kyle Hendricks. (Who is still good even though he doesn’t throw fast). He still probably average or at the top of the bottom half though.
Once shell shock sets in, Rockies pitchers aren’t coming back. Ideally they need to move on to another park and hope to regain confidence. Has any pitcher ever had two straight good seasons at Coors? Maybe Ubaldo back in the day.
Jorge de la Rosa was much better at Coors than on the road for like 7 straight seasons. Brian Fuentes was an All Star a few times for the Rockies. Steve Reed and Rafael Betancourt were very good relievers for several years as well.
Top 3 year stretches, looking at bbref pitching WAR to try to keep it simple..
Not broken down into home/away either.
Reed 7.0, Fuentes 5.6, Betancourt: 5.5, Ottavino 4.6 for relief.
Ubaldo 16.8, Chacin 11.9, Marquez 11.2, Freeland 10.8, Cook 10.5, Astacio 10.1, De La Rosa 9.7, Gray 8.8, Francis 8.6 from starters.
A Freeland bounceback would be huge for the Rocks! He’s definitely shown capable.
Can we find the data where hitters are better on the road than at Coors? And specifically how frequent hitters perform better away from Colorado while wearing a Rockies uniform.
You are probably not going to find it. Simply because Coors is the best hitter’s park. That means hitters generally hit better there. I doubt you will find any hitters that are better at Petco or Dodger Stadium or whatever they are calling SF this week than at Coors. And if there are any, it is probably just an anomaly.
The data is all out there!
I’m curious enough about that one to see what I can dig up.
Defining ‘performance’ simply as OPS satisfies my curiosity for this exercise.
Limiting to seasons where the batter received 300+ PA as a Rockie.
And factoring that I am human and may be prone to the odd error.
21 out of 232 qualifiers within 15 OPS points or showing a better OPS on the road than at Coors.
And only 12 of those were close enough to .800 (.775 and up) to consider it a strong season. .
Lose 3 more if we make the limiter 400 instead of 300 PA.
Can’t easily recall how many qualifiers are lost this way.
12/232 is 5% basically.
Super rare!
(For audit purposes:
LWalker 1997, Burks 1998, Pierre 2001, LGonzalez 2005, Hawpe 2006, Iannetta 2008, Stewart 2010, CGonzalez 2013, Blackmon 2016)
71 of these 232 seasons over 300 PA finished with an OPS over .775 on the road.
Majority just had even bigger seasons at home as we would all expect..
Multiple times, strong road season as a Rockie:
Helton leads with an incredible 11.
LWalker 6
Tulowitzki 5
Arenado, Hawpe 4
Burks, Galarraga, CGonzalez, Holliday 3
Bichette, Blackmon, Castilla, Stewart 2.
Hawpe 895 at Coors vs 845 overall, not just riding the Coors wave. More than a couple seasons at this high rate.
As the sample shrinks, Ian Stewart 767 Coors vs 730 overall and Luis Gonzalez (other one) 787 Coors vs 749 overall.
Still marveling at Helton 855 OPS away from Coors. Over 4600 PA.
Even without the 4800 home PA at a 1048 OPS rate he had a solid career.
If he has to wait even one year to get in the Hall, the voters are really blowin’ it.
While I was at it.
Of the pitchers I noted before, the 4 RPs three year peaks had a 1 in 2 shot at a better OPS against while pitching at Coors.. The 9 SPs three year peaks were closer to 1 in 3.
Less innings on the field is less chance to have those stats normalize to season and historical averages. Someone’s gotta pull that short straw. But there’s gotta be a little more to it than just luck of the draw.
Ubaldo, Cook, De La Rosa, Gray, Ottavino, Reed career OPS against is better at Coors!
Jhoulys Chacin turned out equal at Coors to anywhere else.
Lol, guess I’ve been hibernating while Helton is getting criminally ignored at the HOF vote!
Kinda funny the main two LA pitchers looking for a bounce back are the guys they signed as reclamation projects
Although Kenley could have made the list I guess
This a trade bait inventory, not a real bounce-back candidate list. Kenley is not on the former list, but is top on the latter.
Oh Lord, The Giants starting rotation is straight caca. 4/5 of their starting rotation is on this list. Lol
How ‘bout Ivan Nova? Guy can really snap a curve… Thx.
As a Detroit Tiger he doesn’t quite fit the NL West pitcher billing.
Why is this article not titled, “Giants Bounceback Candidates (Plus Some Others)”? There were ten spots for the NL West and not even a single one is a Diamondback, in spite of Garrett Richards currently facing a similar situation to Luke Weaver, and the Pads paid for him knowing they wouldn’t get anything last season. I wouldn’t have a problem with no DBacks being listed, if I wasn’t already sure that they’d be throwing a few DBacks on a list of regression candidates.
I don’t think Cueto is gonna get that full season he is hoping for, at least not this season..
Good luck, Garrett. Hope this is the beginning of a long stretch of good health for you. Wish you were still an Angel but glad you are just down the road as the Pads are about to takeoff.
Now the Red Sox have cheated out the Dodgers!
Betts trade went wrong now that the season may be washed out. It will turn out the Dodgers never needed him as a one-year rental and at the end of the season he’ll be a free agent and lost to another team. Technically it turns out the Dodgers traded 2 solid prospects for only an older washed up, over paid, Price for 2021,22.