Some notes from around the National League:
- Kolten Wong would be open to discussing a long-term extension with the Cardinals, he told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch this week. The 29-year-old has settled in as a productive everyday second baseman in recent seasons. Since the start of 2017, Wong has compiled a productive .274/.357/.409 slash (105 wRC+). More importantly, he’s emerged as one of the game’s top defenders at the keystone. Wong will make $10.25MM in 2020, the final guaranteed year of the early-career extension he signed. St. Louis also holds a $12.5MM club option ($1MM) on his services that would easily be exercised if he continues to produce at his recent levels.
- The Nationals’ World Series winning 2019 season started dreadfully, as they won just 19 of their first 50 games. Last fall, ownership said they never considered parting ways with manager Dave Martinez amidst the slow start. One more bad week last May, though, and the front office could have contemplated a change, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. One name discussed internally as a potential Martinez replacement: Buck Showalter, who, as Rosenthal notes, worked with Nats GM Mike Rizzo in Arizona from 1998-2000. Of course, that’s little more than an historical footnote now, as Martinez should be on solid footing after leading a remarkable turnaround. He and Rizzo are each entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts (although the Nationals have an option on Martinez for 2021). That said, neither Martinez nor Rizzo expressed worry about their situations as camp opens, and Rosenthal writes that “chances are” both will eventually work out extensions.
- The Phillies plan to start top pitching prospect Spencer Howard slowly in 2020, the organization tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The hope is to conserve some innings in the early going so the organization needn’t worry about shutting Howard down if they find themselves in a playoff race. “Every pitch he throws in March is a pitch he’s not going to be able to throw in September,” GM Matt Klentak told Lauber. “It’s not because something is wrong, and it’s not because we don’t like him. It’s because we like him a lot, and we need to set him up for success to pitch deep into the season this year.” The 23-year-old, Baseball America’s #27 overall prospect, threw fewer than 100 minor-league innings in 2019, in part due to a midseason shutdown with shoulder soreness. Nevertheless, it seems he’s likely to make his MLB debut at some point in 2020 now that his arm is fully healthy.
ForestCobraAL
Spencer Howard “…now that his arm is fully healthy.”
Is it?
There’s video of Howard at Lakewood. His velo is what you read about in the first inning. By the fourth inning it has dropped off noticeably. That continues until his fastball is like 92 mph.
There’s a real question about him being a starter or even a reliever with a heavy workload.
DarkSide830
do you ever have anything good to say about the team? always doom and gloom.
VonPurpleHayes
He has a personal vendetta against the Phillies and their ownership. His posts were exhausting at first, but now I always get a laugh out of them.
ForestCobraAL
Am I ever wrong?
Not so far.
N.L. East Pythagorean W-L Standings:
Nationals 95-67, 873 Runs, 724 Runs Allowed
Braves 91-71, 855 Runs, 743 Runs Allowed
Mets 86-76, 791 Runs, 737 Runs Allowed
Phillies 79-83, 774 Runs, 794 Runs Allowed
Bart Harley Jarvis
Yes.
herecomethephillies2018
2019 PECOTA Projections:
Yankees – 96 Wins (+7)
Red Sox – 90 Wins (-6)
Rays – 86 Wins (+10)
Blue Jays – 76 Wins (-10)
Twins – 81 Wins (+20)
Royals – 71 Wins (-12)
Tigers – 67 Wins (-20)
Angels – 81 Wins (-9)
A’s – 79 Wins (+18)
Rangers – 69 Wins (+9)
Braves – 84 Wins (+13)
Marlins – 66 Wins (-9)
Reds – 84 Wins (-9)
Dodgers – 95 Wins (-11)
Rockies – 85 Wins (-14)
13 teams were wrongfully projected by 9 or more games by the best projection system out there. Just sayin.
sevans36
He is no where near as bad as nobumgarnerequalsnonlcs and his always negative rants about the Braves. Lol.
VonPurpleHayes
I just assume they’re the same person.
bravesfan88
Idk, Howard definitely looks like a more than capable starter, in my opinion. I just think they need to slowly build up his stamina this off-season, spring training, and then during the season.
What is tricky, is you don’t want to put too big a workload increase on Howard; otherwise, it is highly likely you will see him wear down. Howard has ONLY pitched 115, 112, and then 71 innings the past 3 years.
With such a small maximum of innings, it is definitely going to be tough for the Phillies to not wear him out, and then still be able to use him towards the end of next season..
It is highly likely we could see Howard shut down for an extended spring training, and then come in, pitch once every six days in AAA. Also, we will probably see the Phillies use that extended spring training to increase Howard’s stamina. Then, once he does make his 2020 debut, Howard will likely work an inning or two opening for a couple starts, then go for 2-3 innings for a couple starts, and so on and so on ultimately slowly building him up to 5-6 inning starts.
Howard likely wont even be asked to pitch longer than 5-6 innings until next year anyways, so his long-term status as a starter likely wont be answered until 2021..
Also, for what it is worth, you can “predict” failure for just about every starting pitching prospect, and just due to their volatile nature, you’d still be correct 60-70% of the time…
Predicting success is MUCH more difficult than predicting failure for a SP prospect..
tug17509
I am responding to two posts on this thread.
bravesfan88, I am in near agreement with everything stated. Interesting scenario would be if Howard is running a hot arm in Philly and they are in the the mix of playoffs/division winner in September. Do you let Howard throw that extra inning in a close game in late September or continue the plan of saving his arm?
cobra, I’ve seen footage of Howard throwing 95 in the 6th inning in several clips. His scouting report states his fastball velo hovers around 93-98. I hear he hovers at 95 and reaches back for 98-99. While I’ll agree that anyone who expects Howard’s average FB velo to be ~98 is misinformed, I question the point are you trying to make with your comment.
ForestCobraAL
The video of him at Lakewood shows his velocity declining by inning. That is consistent with a weak shoulder.
Reaching high velocities does not indicate a strong arm overall. Some can’t maintain velo and that usually portends an early decline.
Gerrit Cole got nine years because his arm is magic like Nolan Ryan and A.J. Burnett.
SalaryCapMyth
Do you have a link validating your claim on Howard?
tug17509
Cobra, mmm I missed that you mentioned this video was of Howard pitching in Lakewood. I was initially thinking his shoulder soreness in May 2019 could cause fatigue, but Howard didn’t pitch in Lakewood in 2019. Interestingly enough, I found clips of Howard at Lakewood throwing 95 in the 6th:
m.youtube.com/watch?v=I_t2r-V775U
2018 was Howard’s first full year as a pro. He maxed out innings pitched compared to his NCAA years. It could quite possibly be the case that Howard suffered fatigue in the clip you saw, especially if it dates back to August 2018.
Is Howard’s arm magical on the likes of a pitcher like Jose Fernandez (rest in peace) who came up at 20 years old firing for 180+ innings? It’d be a bold statement to make that claim. It’s also pretty bold to suggest Howard’s career as a starter is speculative because his arm isn’t magical, at 21-22 years old, like some others.
ForestCobraAL
It’s a continuing issue. He was a reliever in college. His shoulder was an issue in 2019.
I don’t understand the perpetual optimism about pitching prospects that continues to exist when the overwhelming evidence points solidly in the opposite direction.
You should always evaluate pitching prospects pessimistically. Even so you’ll still be disappointed.
The good news is that the Phillies don’t owe Howard – this Howard – $118 million over five years.
tug17509
In my case, my optimism for Spencer Howard comes from the fact that I’m a Phillies fan. I’d like to think Phillies fans would be optimistic about a consensus top 100 prospect, considering their scouting has sucked this past decade.
Maybe I’m also optimistic because this ‘overwhelming evidence’ is not as blatant as you put it out to be. Until I see any evidence from any more reliable source, I.e. video footage, a scouting report, I hold no value in an anonymous post on a baseball rumors thread.
Badacidtrip69
WONGER!
Freddie Morales
Wong seems like a guy who I would not give a 2nd contract to. Defense declines with age and his bat is not good enough to make up for it. Exercise his option and be done if I was the Cards
8ManLineupNoPitcherNoDH
Yeah he’s overrated
eephus11
I’d say slightly underrated given recent output. I’d agree though that he doesn’t look likely to age well and his attitude in the past has been poor. Let him test FA and “give us a call before you sign if you really want to stay”
JFactor
He has a poor attitude? When and where? I’ve never seen anyone say that about him.
dray16
plus he got picked off first in game 4 of the world series for the last out. he’s not very bright
rayking
He was a rookie when that happened, and that was 7 years ago. He’s been good on the base paths since then.
That being said, the Cards probably should just use the club option next year if he’s solid again this year, and learn their lesson from the Matt Carpenter extension that was unnecessary.
teufelshunde4
Lmao. Cards fans have such elephant memories that they hold against players.
Holliday never lived down dropped flyball in LA.
Wong getting picked off.
Carp having 1 bad season.
Carlos getting hurt.
Ozuna having sore shoulder..
Its amazing how STL has such a rich history yet some people only talk about failure and bad contracts, & FO members clothing choices..
Unfortunate bad fans like that just cant be released never to be heard from again. World would be a better place.
Tbear458
Games 3 and 4 illustrate the enigma that has been Kolten Wong. Everyone remembers Wong being picked off in Game 4. What they forget is Game 3. Pinch hit single, stolen base, run scored and a run saving diving stop. That pretty well sums up his career.
cygnus2112
I ageee & IMO the best thing that could happen for the Cards is for KW to have a monster season, qualify him, let him walk & get the pick while inserting Edman moving forward.
The Redbirds have some horrible contracts and need to shed money in areas if they have a younger thus cheaper option like Edman for example.
JFactor
There is a club option for next year. If he has a monster season, they’ll just exercise the option.
cygnus2112
Which would carry on a long line now of misguided contracts issued by upper management for several years which is precisely my point…
mohoney
The surplus value of Wong at $12.5 is about $10 using his 2018 season and about $17 using his 2019 season. That draft pick is not worth more than Wong’s surplus value. Even if you wanted him gone, a trade after locking in his rather modest salary would definitely eclipse the value of the draft pick.
Rob B
No, the option for 2021 already exists within the current contract.
So, if he has a monster year in ‘20 bringing him back for 12.5 mill is a no brainer and the scenario you describe gets placed on the back burner until 2022.
fljay73
A 2 to 3 year extension + option that puts him at around 32yo at the conclusion of it.
If he is looking for a 5 to 6 year pact maybe not & your point is very valid then.
spinach
Not sure there is a point. Look at recent contracts for good but not elite second basemen in their prime years. LeMahieu got 2/$24m. That’s probably in line with what Wong would want on an extension.
Giving it to him a year and a half early is all downside, what if he talks like a Dozier and it becomes a semi-albatross? You’d be typing yourself into three guaranteed years (including the option) way sooner than need.
The only counter is what if he were to command a much bigger FA contract than LeMahieu did, something like what Moustakas did. I think that’s unlikely enough that the downside outweighs it.
JFactor
2/$24M or 3/$36M makes sense, but not this off-season. Next off-season if he can repeat his 2019 in 2020.
He’s still young enough to justify that, but there is no need to lock up future available dollars right now. Flaherty is the only true extension candidate I can think of this spring
its_happening
Figure Wong is a trade candidate at this point, either for a pitcher or another bat.
dynamite drop in monty
You’ve just described every major league player.
its_happening
Almost every major leaguer. But Wong is at the top of the Cards list or damn close to it.
stan lee the manly
I think if the Cardinals are seriously considering an extension, next offseason is the time to pursue it. He’s only had one year where he finally figured it out with the bat (granted I put a lot of that on Matheny). Give him another year to prove it wasn’t just a fluke year and that his offense is actually real.
solaris602
Agreed. Just stick with the plan, pick up the option, and see how it plays out. As a Tribe fan I can cite their extension of Jason Kipnis as a cautionary tale. Only extend when you have to.
richt
“Showalter, who, as Rosenthal notes, worked with…”
Who honestly writes so bizarrely?
bravesfan88
I used to write countless essays and college papers like that. It is an efficient way to just add extra information, and further explain your point.
Anytime you see that, all it means is the sentence can be read as “Showalter, who worked with” Either way, the writer wanted to quickly give credit to Rosenthal, so he encloses it with commas…
Or it can be used like this for example:
Susan is Tim’s nextdoor neighbor.
Susan, asked Tim to borrow his lawnmower.
Susan, Tim’s nextdoor neighbor, asked to borrow his lawnmower.
Hope this helps..
Melchez
19 and 31 is bad, but it’s not impossible to climb out of. That’s only 6 games where if you’d won, you’d be a .500 team. The baseball season is 162 games long, it is a very long season. After 50 games, that’s a good measuring point on how your season is going, but you have plenty of time to make adjustments. The Nationals had a top rotation… a very good defense and some excellent hitters. It wasn’t a huge surprise to see them turn it around. They were putting the game on the line with some bullpen arms that hadn’t proven themselves. Rosenthal, Grace, Barraclough, and Suero had some terrible games. Once they figured out their role in the pen, they started to play very well.
Maurice Lock
Don’t give Oscar Mayer Wong another deal. He’s so freaking over rated.
Armaments216
Not sure where the top of the market is set for GM contracts. But seems like the Nats should be willing to go there to extend Mike Rizzo.