It was revealed earlier this week that the Angels will go without the pitching of two-way star Shohei Ohtani until at least the middle of May. It’s not wholly unsurprising that Ohtani won’t be ready at the start of 2020. After all, he’s on the mend from a rather serious surgical procedure – the dreaded Tommy John – that he underwent in October 2018. Considering his value to the franchise, there’s no need for the Angels to rush Ohtani back if they’re not fully confident in his health.
All that said, it’s disappointing that Ohtani has pitched so few innings since the Angels brought him over from Japan prior to 2018. The latest news is especially damaging when considering that the team hasn’t added a front-line starter since last season, even though expectations were that it would pick up at least one over the winter. The Angels, stuck in a five-year playoff drought, did get Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran, but they’re more back-end innings-eaters than standouts. On the other hand, Ohtani has the ability to produce No. 1- or 2-type numbers for the club this year, but it’s obvious it’ll be over an abbreviated amount of innings.
The lack of frames Ohtani has racked up since he joined the Angels is no doubt a letdown – not that it’s his fault. He came to the majors as one of the most ballyhooed international free agents ever – someone often called the Japanese Babe Ruth – and has not faltered when healthy. Ohtani tossed 51 2/3 innings of 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP ball with 10.97 K/9 and 3.83 BB/9 as a major league rookie, averaging just under 97 mph on his fastball along the way. It was a dazzling display overall, and Ohtani truly showed what he’s capable of when he threw seven scoreless, one-hit innings of 12-strikeout ball against the Athletics in his second career start.
Ohtani remained really good through his initial season, though injuries were an issue, thus limiting him to two major league pitching appearances from the start of June through the end of the year. We haven’t been treated to Ohtani the pitcher since Sept. 2, 2018, and we’ll have to wait at least a few more months to get another look at that aspect of his game.
Fortunately for the Angels and baseball in general, Ohtani’s no one-trick pony. He’s also quite an offensive player, having slashed .286/.351/.532 (136 wRC+) with 40 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 792 plate appearances since he emigrated from his homeland.
At the very least, the 25-year-old Ohtani is in line to help the Angels as a designated hitter throughout the entirety of the upcoming campaign. But how much of an impact do you think he’ll make as a hurler when he officially returns from surgery? Vote in the polls below…
(Innings poll link for app users)
(ERA poll link for app users)
Ohtani is going to be a beast!!
I expect him to struggle at first
He’ll bounce back enough on the mound to give us a sneak peak at his 2021 MVP campaign.
9-6, 3.79 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 7.9 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9, 10.2 K/9. 112.1 IP over 23 starts.
You heard it here first.
Actually those stats are reasonable for him, so nice job
Brixton is no slouch, that’s for sure
Some nerd probably will point out that ERA is impossible in that number of innings. It would work for 111.2 IP.
Looks like some nerd did. :-p
@Dag Gummit – Glad someone got the joke.
Nice work. I’ll take it along with his 115 wrc+ across 300 at bats.
Why so low on the wRC+ and AB projection? Over ~1.5 seasons of PA thus far he’s sported a 136 wRC+ and breached 350 AB both seasons.
Last year’s ‘sophomore slump’ had him at a 123 wRC+ clip.
fangraphs.com/players/shohei-ohtani/19755/stats?po…
My opinion as a Brewers fan, and someone who doesn’t watch him every day,I think you underestimate him a bit. He is a phenom. The Angels finally got help for your king fish CF on offense, Ohtani needs to be a pitcher more than a hitter as soon as he is ready. For the sake of all baseball fans I hope he stays healthy for years to come.
way too many people saying halos should just make him a hitter. He was wayyyy more talented as a pitcher despite his great hitting, and you don’t just give up on that. Let alone the fact angels need all upside on the mound they can get. His arm is so vital to our future
He’s a great pitcher. I’ve pondered having him as a DH/outfielder/closer.
I understand it and the argument of switching any two-way player (many elite HS kids and young IFAs are two-way and they aren’t too unheard of even into the NCAA D1 level) to exclusively hitting is always much more than the potential talent the player has on the mound. In fact, most of it simply comes down to production + development potential lost from injury.
Hypothetically speaking, if the Angels had decided to make him a COF from Day 1 and never put the strain on his elbow that eventually injured him, they’d have gotten 2 full seasons out of his bat instead of ~1.5. It would have also meant that he’d have been adding whatever defensive value he would have as a COF instead of force-slotting him to DH and Pujols to 1B.
Leaving out all potential discussion about the well-documented skill boost that happens when two-way players (across many sports) focus on going one-way, the Angels have lost significant value from simply extrapolating his offensive production. In 2018 alone, had he been the full-time DH (not even an OF), extrapolating his 2.8 WAR to 600 PA would have resulted in 4.6 WAR — a boost of 1.6 WAR compared to his 1.0 pitching WAR. Were he a league average COF instead of a DH, that’s another 0.5 WAR. Were he a good-to-plus COF as estimated by scouts, it would be even higher. Extrapolating out his 425 PA in 2019 to 600, his WAR would’ve gone from 1.8 to 2.5 (another +0.7). By the basic numbers (again, no modeled projections about performance boost caused by devoting to playing one-way — let alone potential future injury that’s now at an increased chance to thanks to his prior injury history), it’s hard to argue continuing to pitch him regularly.
– fangraphs.com/players/shohei-ohtani/19755/stats?po…
– fangraphs.com/players/shohei-ohtani/19755/stats?po…
He is going to have an innings limit. Why max it out by using him early in the season?
He’s not coming back till late May, soooo
era a little under 4.. but I will say less then 100 innings . I’m excited tho
All I know is there will be a lot of late nights here in the east when he is pitching on west coast. Just remember that there hasn’t been anyone like him in 100 years and that is must see TV.
Agreed. He’s a freak of nature.
If you go into the season w ohtani as your ace you’re not a playoff contender. Regardless how good the rest of your team is
Thanks Chester. Do you have something t0 back that up or is it just conjecture?
95 ip, 3.20 era, 3.50 FIP, 10.9 k/9
140 IP 11-7 3.87 ERA OVER 25 starts. 175 K’s with 80 Walks.
shouldnt have backed away on the deal with the dodgers. angels need pitching
Ohtani’s/arm shoulder will not hold up under the strain of a major league pitching workload.
He’ll end up a star hitting outfielder if they don’t wreck him on the mound. #scoutseyes
Scouts Eyes????? Lol
I’m assuming hes going to get a start at least once in every interleague series away game after May. Should be exciting.
Hell be a decent major leaguer, but going off the hype hell be a flop. With exception of ichiro, very few Asian players live up to the hype they have coming into the majors. Darvish, nomo, matsui were decent to good but none lived up to hype they had coming in, and obtain wont either. .270avg 25ish homers and 3.80 era 12-15 wins on avg with lots of time on IL next 10yrs
Adams – look at his Japan stats. He’s already proven not to be a flop.
Ohtani is so much more valuable to that team as a pitcher. They should do everything they possibly can to cater to his pitching potential, even if that means sitting down and having that difficult conversation of scrapping the DH idea altogether.
At this point, yes, you’re spot on.
I’ve got to ask how that judgment is being made as it doesn’t come close to being based on the numbers to-date
– 1.0 WAR and now ~2 seasons lost from 50 IP
– 4.6 WAR over just under 1.5 seasons of hitting (which would already be higher if he hadn’t been pitching)
Were he only a SP and no injuries, his tiny sample could be extrapolated to ~8 WAR (200 IP over two seasons)
Were he only a DH and no pitching-caused injuries, his current contribution of value could be extrapolated to ~7 WAR over 1200 PA
Were he a league average COF glove (around 0 UZR), he’d add ~2 more WAR for a total of ~9.
All that presuming that his power decline in 2019 that came in spite of the juiced ball is not due to some never-mentioned nagging elbow or whatever.
Only — and only — if he were magically able to pitch 2 200-IP seasons without injury issues that popped up after only 50 IP *AND* if his production over those 400 IP would be as good as it was over only 50 IP could he have possibly exceeded his DH-bat-only contribution or approached a conservative estimation of his COF-bat contribution.
Sure, /*IF*/ he can pitch 150 IP over 6 months instead of 50 over 2, he could potentially add that value to the offensive value he put up as a DH. There’s a reason why the vast majority of HS and NCAA two-way players become full-time position players, though. It’s less because they weren’t good enough both ways and more because of the far higher injury risks to pitching.
Era 3.98 49 innings pitched. Health issues in 2020
I’m thinking along the line of 86ip, 2.46 ERA. No rhyme or reason, just outing out the first thing that came to mind.
Pick a role and stick with it. What a waste of talent trying to do it both ways… body needs rest after starting.
Angels will likely Matt Harvey him like the Mets did in 2015. 50 innings in 2018, none in 19, way too many in 20. Pitching career over in 21. Thank the lucky stars if he can still hit.