The Diamondbacks have announced a long-term deal with shortstop Nick Ahmed. Ahmed will earn a guaranteed $32.5MM over the four years covered by the deal, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter.
Ahmed and the Snakes had been engaged in an arbitration standoff, with the player seeking $6.95MM and the team at $6.6MM. This new deal will therefore tack on three further seasons and over $25MM in new commitments. Ahmed had been due to reach free agency at the end of the 2020 season. He is a client of Meister Sports Management.
The structure includes a $1.5MM signing bonus, per Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (Twitter links). Ahmed will earn $6MM for the coming season, take home $7.5MM apiece in 2021 and 2022, and receive $10MM in the final year of the deal. There’s also a $500K escalator for each Gold Glove award that Ahmed wins, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
At first glance, it’s a heck of an outlay for a player who’s entering his age-30 campaign without so much as a single league-average offensive season under his belt. Ahmed is a career .236/.289/.387 hitter through 2,209 plate appearances at the game’s highest level.
Then again, depending upon one’s perspective — and, as ever, the way things actually play out — this could be a bargain. It seems safe to say that the Diamondbacks do not put much stock in the UZR metric, by which Ahmed has been a good but hardly remarkable performer at short. By measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average, on the other hand, Ahmed is an exceptional performer with the glove. He has also earned the National League Gold Glove in each of the past two campaigns.
But that’s only touching the surface of the intrigue when it comes to Ahmed. Long a marginal performer with the bat, he trended up to a career-best 92 wRC+ last season. Ahmed cracked the .300 OBP barrier for the first time and drove 19 balls out of the park. It’s probably not reasonable to anticipate much beyond league-average offense (if that) going forward, but the arrow is obviously pointed in the right direction given that Ahmed has been able to improve both his plate discipline (career-best .46 BB/K ratio) and power (career-best .183 ISO) at the same time.
So, what’s the total package worth? Even after the offensive uptick last year, Ahmed was only a 2.4 WAR performer by measure of Fangraphs’ UZR-based valuation. But Baseball-Reference, which utilizes DRS, pegged him at 4.5 WAR. If indeed Ahmed truly wields an elite glove and provides anything approaching the league mean with the bat, he could handily out-perform the contract. If things really click at the plate, this could even turn into a truly high-value pact. Of course, there’s also equivalent downside if Ahmed’s offensive/defensive out-making trends reverse course.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Love Arizona’s offseason work
Lionel Fisher. I love your work.
They were definitely prepared going into this offseason.
Four more years of awesome defensive plays in Sedona Red.
This contract should keep him trade-able, so I’d expect maybe 2-3 more years of Ahmed and then he’ll get moved to make room for Perdomo…assuming he develops as expected.
Good for you, JACK!
Seems like a good deal for both sides.
Way to cash in on the juiced ball from last year.
What’s it like being so alone?
Why don’t you clue us in?
No one asked you, big jefe.
HR per 35 PA in 2018.
HR per 32 PA in 2019.
Yeah huge difference.
OMG that’s outragous, jeez terrible move, I hate the D-backs FO, just another terrible contract all because of the juiced ball…
P.S: that’s a bad take
Enjoy that lifetime .289 on base percentage.
It’s never been about Ahmed’s bat. It’s about his elite defense.
its 8m a year it’s nothing, they can cut bait in 2 years and it wont hurt them in the slightest: this is literally middle reliever money
This is what happens when a perfectly rational, well run organization gets together with a perfectly rational, well organized player; you get a perfectly rational contract.
Awesome move for Arizona, I love Ahmed, and anything to get him to stay in Sorona red. Terrific off-season building around that core.
I like how you are always seemingly positive:) Need more of this on these boards.
I wouldn’t say “anything” to keep him, but this is a modest deal to keep him or trade him and that works..
My Sorona?
Ahmed is a solid player. Good extension. However AZ has to ditch those awful uniforms. The blood dripping or whatever it is supposed to be on the pants looks ridiculous.
That was removed from the uniform a after the 2018 season.
They did change the uniforms for this year and the bloody bottom looking pants were changed after only one year.
They haven’t had the pattern on the pants in 2 or 3 years
Oh, they’re about to be changing a thing about them…the city name 😉
Vin…what is the connection in your brain that brought out comments about Ahmed being a good player and signing a nice extension, placed alongside a dated comment about the Dbacks’ uniforms. I’d love to know how some people’s brains work?!
Scott. I don’t watch them. Last time I saw them play they had the used tampon smears on the legs. I’m happy to hear they got rid of it. I actually hate baseball. It is boring. I just like to wind up you nerds.
This deal works because Ahmed can also play 2B and can either slide over there when the inevitable defensive decline begins at SS over the next couple years or be traded with a reasonable contract. He should still be a very good defensive 2B that’s worth what he’ll be making over the last two years of the deal.
This allows the team to not rush Perdomo. Having Marte locked up for a while also helps. If Ahmed regresses with age before Prdomo is ready, they could likely swap positions till Perdomo arrives in 2023.
Dbacks keeping it going
A good value for the Dbacks. Ahmed can fall out of bed & get you 2 WAR. If his bat holds ups near 2019 levels, he is a 3-4 war SS. Even with the inevitable age regression, Ahmed will likely outperform his contract’s value.
Not the age and background I’d give a 4 year deal to, but its not a big money deal. Worth the risk and his glove always plays.
I get his glove but the bat doesn’t play. How does a guy like gets a contract like this just for his glove when many most players that are glove first doesn’t get this money.
its 8 mill a year so calm down, thats middle reliever money
A lot of Ahmed’s value is “hidden” within the fact that he makes pitchers better with his defense up the middle and will also improve Starling Marte in CF with his defensive ability to track down flares headed toward CF. Great extension! Ahmed’s bat has improved markedly in each of the past few years, while his defense remains Gold Glove elite caliber.
Hazen has surprisingly extended both Peralta and Ahmed now. Of the Dbacks important core players, only Robbie Ray’ contract will expire at the end of the year. Ahmed had made noise like he was going to test the FA market and wouldn’t sign an extension, but Hazen got it done. Best GM in baseball.
This is a brutally bad deal and anyone who says otherwise is flat dumb. His glove isn’t worth this because his bat is so bad that it negates every bit of production you could ever ask out of him plus some. The guy doesn’t get on base at all, doesn’t exactly hit for power, doesn’t hit for avg…. I mean, I don’t see one thing he does on the hitting side that is remotely worth being on the roster, much less a big contract like this. I understand his glove is legit…. but you have to draw the line somewhere. Glove work isn’t worth this. Maybe if your a catcher but even then
Bravesfan, we’re talking about Nick Ahmed not Dansby Swanson!
Nick Ahmed is a daily highlight show at short – he and K. Marte are the best DP combination in the NL. The additions of Calhoun and S. Marte will keep Ahmed and catcher Kelly in the bottom third of the lineup, where they will contribute offensively. I am very happy not only that Ahmed is staying, but also that Luis Urueta will be the 2020 bench coach (and not Red Sox manager). Huge kudos to Mike Hazen, Jared Porter and Amiel Sawdaye!
East Longmeadow’s own!
“Then again, depending upon one’s perspective — and, as ever, the way things actually play out” look at all those words that aren’t really saying anything!
How much is Jose Iglesias getting in Baltimore? Is there really that much difference in the two?
D-Backs might have had the best offseason!
A slight overpay but if he is a good teammate and the organization likes him then they have to be happy with this deal. It’s kind of scary that last year was his first and only season with an OBP over .300. Jackie Bradley batted a rough .225 last year but still had a .317 OBP. Let’s hope Ahmed is a late bloomer and can stay above the .300 OBP Mendoza line. While I am a Red Sox fan, I really like the team Arizona is putting together and hope they can grab a wild card this season!
UCONN!!
I’ve always said that Ahmed’s lack of offense shows how valuable he is in nearly every other area, making him an MVP candidate if he has a big year offensively. He has it in him to continue to improve offensively. Look at his last year in AAA. His offense is good enough to make him a valuable player because he plays elite defense, walks enough, runs the bases well (not just steals but advancing), and he’s a great clubhouse and community guy. He trains really hard. He’s a solid bet to be an impact player that wins games.