Opening Day is about a month away, and here at MLB Trade Rumors it’s time to look ahead to the 2020-21 free agent class. These players are on track to become free agents after the 2020 season, but a lot can change before we reach that point. As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2020-21 open market earning power. You can see the full list of 2020-21 MLB free agents here.
1. Mookie Betts. A superstar right fielder who doesn’t turn 28 until October, Betts has a shot at the largest contract in MLB history. That record is held by Mike Trout, who agreed to a 10-year, $360MM extension with the Angels one year ago. Trout is better than Betts and everyone else, but he didn’t subject himself to an open-market bidding war. Bryce Harper ($330MM) and Manny Machado ($300MM) did, albeit in a colder free agent environment than the one that just closed, which awarded Gerrit Cole a surprising $324MM. Betts, a projected 6-WAR player for the 2020 Dodgers, could reasonably seek a ten-year term with an average annual value in the $36-40MM range.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Betts turned down an eight-year, $200MM extension offer from the Red Sox after the 2017 season, while WEEI’s Lou Merloni says Boston offered a contract in the “ten year, $300MM range” fresh off Betts’ 2018 MVP campaign. According to Merloni, Betts’ camp countered at 12 years, $420MM. I know there’s an undercurrent that Betts’ reported counteroffer is ridiculous, but in reality, it reflects his market value. He would be justified in seeking an AAV north of Anthony Rendon’s $35MM, and a term no shorter than the 10+ years achieved by Trout, Harper, Machado, Giancarlo Stanton, Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, and Joey Votto.
2. J.T. Realmuto. The largest free agent contract ever for a catcher is well within Realmuto’s sights. The Phillies’ backstop, 29 in March, is one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball. He also rates strongly in pitch framing and stolen base prevention. With Russell Martin being paid through age 36 and Yadier Molina through age 37, Realmuto could aim to be locked up through age 35, which would require an unprecedented six-year deal and top the $100MM mark. Joe Mauer and Buster Posey have reached that plateau in extensions, but it’s never been done by a catcher in free agency.
3. George Springer. Springer, 30, is a tough player to value given the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. According to Tony Adams’ calculations, 14.4% of Springer’s home plate appearances in 2017 included trash can banging. The outfielder put up a strong ’17 season, but his finest year to date has been 2019. MLB did not uncover evidence of the Astros stealing signs in 2019.
I’m no Astros apologist, but if I had to guess, I’d say the team’s sign stealing had minimal effect on Springer’s production at the plate. He was an excellent hitter while cheating, and will likely continue to be while playing by the rules. The stigma surrounding Springer and his teammates will surely carry into the 2020-21 offseason, and I could see fans having a longer memory on this than they do on steroids. For today’s many cold, calculating front offices, Springer’s complicity in the Astros’ scheme may simply translate as a small bargain in free agency. I imagine many teams would exchange a little bad PR for a 5-WAR player at a discount, especially since Springer didn’t actually hurt anyone.
4. Marcus Semien. Though he finished third in the AL MVP voting this year, Semien remains an underrated star shortstop for the Athletics. Semien, 30 in September, jumped from a league average bat to a 137 wRC+ in 2019. Paired with above average defense, Semien’s 7.6 WAR ranked fifth among MLB position players. What will he do for a follow-up? How much of Semien’s career-best power and walk rate will stick? If Semien settles in as a 120 wRC+, 5-WAR player with his typical excellent durability, he’d be justified in seeking a six-year contract well in excess of $100MM. Back in November, Jon Heyman suggested interest was mutual for an extension.
5. Trevor Bauer. Bauer, 29, has one elite season on his resume. His 2018 season for the Indians included a 2.21 ERA, but otherwise he’s never been below 4.18. After being traded to the Reds at the July deadline last year, Bauer limped to a 6.39 ERA over his final ten starts, allowing 12 home runs in 56 1/3 innings. Bauer is known for his passion for his craft and his extensive work with Driveline Baseball. He’s also one of the game’s most outspoken players, which you can read about here, or as it relates to the Astros scandal, here. Bauer’s comments and tweets could certainly give some suitors pause, but, true to form, he’s got different ideas about free agency too. Bauer has found a way to pay less than the typical 5% agency fee, which seems wise, and he’s also pledged to sign only one-year deals. That could mean, in a given offseason, forgoing was much as $100MM in guaranteed money to maximize his annual take. It’s a risky, fascinating proposition, especially for a pitcher. If Bauer is true to his word, I expect he’ll land in the $20-30MM range on a one-year deal, depending on his season. His overall earning power is much higher.
6. Robbie Ray. Born five months apart, Ray and Marcus Stroman make for an interesting comparison. Their results over the last three years have been similar in terms of games started and ERA, but Ray employs a high strikeout, high walk, homer-prone approach for the Diamondbacks while Stroman succeeds via the groundball. They’re both roughly 3-WAR pitchers for 2020, but Ray might be of slightly greater interest due to his ability to miss bats.
7. Marcus Stroman. Stroman’s 53.7% groundball rate ranked fifth among qualified starters in 2019, and he’s second in baseball for 2017-19. In these homer-happy times, Stroman has allowed just 0.89 HR/9 over the last three years. Both he and Ray will likely be looking to top the four-year, $68MM deals signed by Nathan Eovaldi and Miles Mikolas, and five years isn’t out of the question.
8. Justin Turner. Over the past three seasons, Turner’s 145 wRC+ ranks eighth in baseball among qualified hitters – better than Anthony Rendon, Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger, or Mookie Betts. That mark dipped to a still-strong 132 in 2019, so the Dodgers’ third baseman remains an excellent hitter at age 35. As you might expect, his defense is slipping. Turner could still land a three-year deal at a strong salary, and he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer since he received one previously.
9. DJ LeMahieu. The Yankees’ two-year, $24MM deal with LeMahieu turned out to be one of the best deals of the offseason, as he posted a career-best 5.4 WAR. The infielder had at least flirted with those heights once before, in 2016. But much like Marcus Semien, LeMahieu’s free agent price tag could fluctuate quite a bit depending on how 2020 plays out. A 4 WAR campaign could lead to a four-year contract.
10. Nick Castellanos. I debated between Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna for this last spot. But the free agent market clearly preferred Castellanos, who is 15+ months younger, lacked a qualifying offer, and finished strong after being traded to the Cubs. Perhaps that script could be flipped after 2020, especially since Castellanos can get a QO and Ozuna can’t. But Castellanos seems primed to put up big offensive numbers in the Reds’ lineup, which could compel him to opt out of his remaining three years and $48MM and try to get a four-year deal again.
At this point, I’m assuming that the 2021 club options for Starling Marte, Anthony Rizzo, Charlie Morton, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, and Kolten Wong will vest or be picked up. If not, you’d have to assume the player had a poor season. I’m also assuming for now that Giancarlo Stanton will not opt out of his remaining seven years and $218MM.
The Power Rankings are fluid, however, and any of these Honorable Mentions could find their way on: Andrelton Simmons, Marcell Ozuna, Mike Minor, James Paxton, Didi Gregorius, Kirby Yates, Liam Hendriks, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jose Quintana.
need this realmuto extention stat
If it was gonna happen- it would be on the books already. He’s gonna be a free agent.
Lol. No. They didn’t even start talks until post arbitration. His arbitration was today. So there was practically 0 chance of him being extended before today. Don’t spot nonsense or gossip.
spout
The Phils were waiting for the arbitration hearing to set his 2020 salary in stone to help luxury tax avoidance.
I look for the Phillies and JTR to do a 5 or 6 year extension at $23 million AAV.
No MLB player in last 30 years who had 5+ years service time and lost a hearing ended up re-signing with that team. Sorry Phillies, your bum owners lost you a great player who they should have paid whatever he asked.
Realmuto is in Atlanta next year, bet.
Not a chance he lands in Atlanta. None.
Not unless it’s a one year deal.
That isn’t how arbitration works. Please read the article on this very site. Realmuto holds no ill will towards the Phillies.
Almost every player ever quoted claims they hold no ill-will. It would hurt their bargaining power to make such a claim. Yet, the numbers tell the story. Either the players DO remember, or other teams are just willing to pay more. Either way, arb losers rarely re-sign..
No way he signs with the Braves though. The Braves won’t put money in an aging catcher to the tune of the years he will want. Not only that, they will already have D’Arnaud on the books for $8m, so they won’t want to put that much more money into the catching position. I expect D’Arnaud and a vet signing a one year deal to be in ATL in 2021, but only if Jackson proves he isn’t MLB talent in some spot work this year. Then Contreras or Langeliers with another vet in place of D’Arnaud in 2022.
That could all change if Langeliers shows any ability with the bat in the minors this year. If he can even project to a .220 hitter he might move through quickly with his ability behind the plate, and be in MLB by 2021.
AA already signed an ageing catcher to a 5-year deal and overpaid him when he paid another catcher $13-mil for 2 in Toronto. Lightning can strike twice.
The .220 hitter asked to come up to the bigs to hit .190. Yep, he’ll move up quickly!
Of course he is going to say that. He also loves Ny and LA.
He may say he is not crazy about Tanpa Bay or Miami but anyone that can pay 5/$115 plus an option is a wonderful place to play
Braves won’t pay what it will take to get him.
James Paxton should be 3rd
also silly to put Castellanos over Ozuna when Ozuna is better and much more likely to hit free agnecy
Castellanos is miles better offensively.
Not at all.
They have identical career wRC+.
Ozuna is miles a better player than Castellanos, period.
THATS how much a butcher Castellanos is in the field, and also a big reason why the Reds won’t be a serious threat next year. Worst defense from a contender by a long, long way.
It makes no sense why the Reds went all-bat, no-glove – that has never really worked in the past. Love their pitching too. The Reds defense turns them from a 90+ game winner to a .500 team so fast imo.
Are you sure the Brewers won’t be worse defensively?
He’s better offensively but not “miles better,” while Ozuna is much better defensively and won’t have a QO this time.
Castellanos is a way better hitter but a butcher in the field
They’re similar hitters. Castellanos is the worst defensive outfielder in MLB.
Strike Four, metrics didnt back him as being the worst in 2019. It was his second yr in a new position and he improved a lot. Now he’ll be in a smaller park. I’d be willing to bet money he’s a scratch defender this yr.
Not close. baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_aver…
Jose Martinez might be worse, but at least he can hide at DH most of the time now.
Castellanos is a better defender than many people portray. He was much better in RF last year: after all, he’s a converted infielder. As compared to Ozuna, I’ve never seen NC climb an outfield wall only to have the ball land untouched on the field. And Ozuna has a wet noodle for an arm.
Castellanos was terrible in RF last year.
-9 DRS (worst)
.-4.3 UZR/150 – only Charlie Blackmon was worse
Ozuna’s arm was only a wet noodle in 2018. Upon being fully recovered from his 2018 surgery, his arm was decent last year.
It takes multiple years for uzr or drs to stabilize. One year of those numbers doesnt actually say much. Its one of the biggest issues with war, at least the way most fans use it.
Pretty strong class. A lot better than the top heavy 3 of this offseason.
We don’t know how many of these guys are going to sign extensions or have a terrible and/or injury-plagued contract year, though.
I thought Trout signed a 12 year, 430 million extension last offseason, unless I’m remembering wrong
Trout is promised $426.5MM over a 12-year term but was already under contract for two years and $66.5MM when he re-upped in Anaheim.. The “extension” portion of his contract — the new money to which he agreed — was 10 years and $360MM.
Springer will get a pass once the Yankees sign him lol
“We would never tolerate such dishonesty’
[Dodgers trade for Mookie Betts and Yankees sign Gerrit Cole, who denies cheating accusations]
Ridiculous pearl-clutching. And that’s only in the past few months.
Cole knowing about Astros sign stealing doesn’t make him a liability for any team. It means he’s a loyal teammate, and nothing more. If he’s involved with the sign stealing scheme and participated in it, maybe that brings in more questions about his integrity, but knowing about it doesn’t by default mean anything. We don’t know what was going thru any of their heads, if they condoned it, felt intimidated or powerless to stop it. We just don’t know.
What we do know is that the position players, or most of them, were willing to cheat, and in my humble opinion that should be the focus, along with the complete and utter breakdown and failure of leadership to stop it.
Interesting take if anyone wants to say that Fiers is a hero then. What would that make Cole? A bad dude? Whatever labels are put on JV or Lance McCullers should be applied to him, if these accusers are genuine in their outrage… Greinke lives in a void I am sure and is silent by nature so he’s omitted.
It is just odd that people want to say Fiers is the good guy for telling on his team, but Cole is not scolded for not saying anything, even though he would have presumably seen something in early 2018 (or all the way through 2019, if someone wants to go that far).
Fiers isn’t a good guy, but he did the right thing even if for the wrong reasons. Good has come out of it, so we should be thankful.
What shouldn’t happen is for the integrity of every person involved or aware to be slandered based on association or even participation. It’s unfair because we don’t know how individuals felt in that situation. We don’t know about the factors that played into their actions. I do think it’s fair too punish players for cheating, even if they felt intimidated or pressured. They could have said no, period, and we know this because certain players did say no.
There are no rules in place in Major League Baseball that require players to inform the league of infractions. The responsibility in this instance falls squarely on leadership, which failed miserably. If the league required players to report suspicious or illegal conduct, I could begin to start to question those that witness infractions but don’t report them.
This is a fair take. It is important to take it with a grain of salt given Fiers’ demeanor though. He tried to fight AJ Hinch in 2016 and had to be restrained by Carlos Gomez. He was cut from the postseason roster and then non-tendered. After he moved to a rival team he definitely had impetus to suddenly play the role of hero. It’s important to consider this conflict of interest when assessing if the Astros are the unique perpetrators of this, then.
Yep. If they felt strongly about the Astros cheating they’d stand for some principle and not sign Cole or Betts. And until Fiers returns his WS ring and cash winnings, he’s no hero.
Cole didn’t break any rules. Why would someone be standing for righteousness by not signing him? There are a myriad of reasons why a player wouldn’t report activities to the league, several of them having nothing to do with integrity. Also, as I mentioned in another post, the league doesn’t request or require players to report suspicious activity to the league.
Read Trevor Bauer’s piece in the players tribune. Of course I don’t know anything for certain but there is very compelling wvidence that Astro’s pitchers have been cheating as well. Nobody focuses on this, however.
Absolutely the Astros pitchers had/have been cheating. Your spin rate does not dramatically increase like that.
Here’s my take on Cole, Astros’s cheating, and the NYY deal:
1) According to the report the cheating occurred in 2017 and Cole was not there. If we can believe the report then the cheating is a non-issue for Cole and the NYY’s acquisition of Cole.
2) If the cheating took place in 2018 and 2019 then Cole was complicit. He should have been punished with the rest of the players. Then the Yankees acquired an ethically challenged pitcher. In that case I wish they hadn’t but a) at that point they didn’t know and b) there are worse things, such as someone who actively participated.
The other issue is the impact of cheating on Cole’s stats and therefore the valuation of him as it reflects upon the deal. It could certainly have affected his Wins and Losses. It might also have affected his ERA (and related stats involving Runs) if you buy some people’s arguments that getting extra run support improves a pitcher’s performance due to reduced stress.
The bigger issue for me is the pine tar factor. If as Bauer and others have claimed pitchers like Cole (and Verlander) used tar to dramatically improve their performance, then I am very concerned about the deal the NYY gave him. If he is not allowed to or prevented from using pine tar, which in my opinion he shouldn’t, and he depends on it, then we would see a dramatic decline in his performance, which, given his contract, would be devastating.
That’s all for now.
Pine tar improves grip not certain how it affects spin rate, I know that lots of batters even have advocated for pitchers using pine tar so they dont end up getting hit. I’m not certain but I think they are/were using something more in the nature of sunscreen or vaseline. Either way, anything that helps pitchers improve spin rate on its own should be illegal since higher spin rate is undeniably an advantage. If anyone knows what specific substances could improve spin rate on their own please chime in!
Mo4ever
This idea that people aware of the cheating are by default ethically challenged is too simplistic. I’m sorry, but there certainly were factors that played into players not speaking out. 54 players and coaches circulated that dugout thru the season, and if you are to believe that all of them are substandard human beings I think you are simply wrong.
The majority of major league pitchers use a sticky substance of some kind. I think the pine tar thing had nothing to do with Bauer demanding level playing fields, and had everything to do with Bauer being jealous of Cole’s success.
LH
Pine tar, and any viscous substance would affect spin rate. It increases friction, and that coupled with rotational force on the ball increases spin rate. Sweat can affect spin rate, natural oil on the skin can increase spin rate. The humidity of a stadium, the amount of mud rubbed onto the ball varies from ball to ball, changes spin. It all does.
Vaseline or oil would decrease spin. Lots of spit would decrease spin, because it decreases friction. That could impart a knuckling effect on the ball.
The umpire checks the balls how many times a game at random. What could be used that would come off on the way to the plate?
I don’t blame the pitchers. Although teammates pitchers and position players have their own lil click. Cole was just glad to get out of Pittsburgh and get to free agency. Verlander gets traded there with a month left so not really his place to try to end it. All rats must die. Nobody likes tattletails. Snitches get stiches. Guy code. These are all well known sayings for a reason.
Say it ain’t so, Gerritt.
There’s a huge difference between doing something as a franchise and acquiring star players
Holy hell you’ll try anything to make teams look as bad as Houston. You’re pathetic
No, you’re pathetic NoCommonSense.
CommonSense: you make so much sense and others still try to attack it. It’s befuddling.
If you think what the Red Sox and Yankees did is even remotely on the same level of what the Astros did, then you’re trying to re-write our own history to our faces. You lost. Go home.
Just wait. What the Red Sox did IS similar.
Lots of pitchers in this class. Going to be exciting.
I figured a Springer deal would look something like a “2020 version” of Justin Upton’s contract with the Angels. The health is a big question though. In his defense, he’s had some freak things happen like colliding with the wall or injuring his hand on a steal attempt.
Think the Lack of buzzersAnd trash cans are the bigger question
How did Castellanos beat out LITERALLY the best fielding shortstop in years Andrelton Simmons.
That is interesting, but I’m guessing they’re predicting a big year for him in a good lineup will prompt him to bolt and take a chance after only 1 season in Cincy versus the presumed decline of a then-31 y/o Simmons, while his offense cannot take a step back. I’m still quietly hoping ATL reunites with him for another run – IF Swanson doesn’t break out this year.
Jeff Todd would have put Simmons 10th, and Steve Adams likes him a lot. So, it would be reasonable.
Ok, I just feel like he is still incredibly underrated.
Simmons’ value is diminished because people are allowed to strike out 180 times a season if they hit enough dingers. It’s a similar thing that 40 home runs didn’t mean as much in the 1990s as it did in the 1960s. Joey Gallo is a CF, Mike Moustakas is a 2B, etc. Defensive value is diminished because the ball is being put in play less. Given that, coupled with the fact that Castellanos can be bothered to hit .280, gives Castellanos an edge in my opinion.
I get what you’re saying, but I don’t think the same rules apply to SS, having to field the most batted balls of anyone on the field. Until everyone has perfected the launch angle, SS is still the most important position player on defense.
If I remember correctly, Rangers29 was the one who referred to my Jonathan Lucroy comment as “golden”. If you watch KevinGohd, there is another baseball youtuber that I think you will enjoy and who coincidentally recently. Just go to Youtube and search up “Foolish Baseball”. All will be explained.
No, catcher is the most important position on defense and the only one where defense should be prioritized over offense. Even at SS, the next most important defensive position, offensive value is still overall more important than defensive value (although you’d really like to have a guy who’s above-average at both).
Hey @13yearoldbaseballfanatic, I’ve been watching foolishbb for ages, and i’ve already seen the Simmons video, and how he compares him to Ozzie Smith. I also just watched the Jeff Mathis one the other day, which as a Rangers fan, gives me closure lol. A few other good chanels are Sadman baseball, Stark Raving sports, and Giraffeneckmarc. Sadman doesn’t upload very often though. But yes I called your Lucroy comment Golden.
P.S Sadman has only uploaded 3 videos, go watch the Kluber one first, he does a great analysis on him.Like foolishbb.
I watch all of those channels.
angels should extend him during the season. simmons loves playing there.
Yeah I wondered that myself! His D alone makes him special especially at a premium position. Very questionable decision by the writer.
It depends on whether you believe Simmons is more likely to hit like he did in 2017-18 or the way he has over the rest of his career. Aside from catchers, players who are good hitters but bad fielders are more valuable than players who are good fielders but bad hitters.
Interested in seeing what Yates and Hendriks command-
There hasnt been too many (elite/young) closer arms to hit the market recently to get a good read on that market?
Do they command a 4 /80 like Kenley got? Seems like the stuff would be better moving forward for 4 years but the name value wont be quite as strong
Giles is in this class too. If they perform, the amount spent on those three will be crazy.
True, kimbrel getting 3/43 should def help motivate these 3 guys for the next year-
Can Oak really afford 18 mill/yr for a Rp- Prolly not
Can Sd afford yo pay 20 mill a year with Machado Hosmer Meyers on books and still needing Sp? Prolly not
Yates is 33 this year so a 4 year deal would eat up his age 34-37 seasons. $20M a year is a lot of risk to put on a 37 year old arm. He’s way older than Kenley was when he signed for 5/80 and didn’t have the history of success either so I don’t see him getting that.
SD has one of the deepest bullpens in the league too, so when he hits the market I doubt he’s going to be their top priority. If they’re out of it in July they’ll probably have flipped him by then anyways. They could trade him now and just roll with Pomeranz/Pagan if the right deal came along
Why does Betts get a caveat for sign stealing but Springer does? Betts had a historical year in 2018. The year they are supposedly under investigation for cheating.
Agreed that having a wRC+ 50 points ahead of every other year raises an eyebrow. He is still talented. Obviously MLB wants to get everyone to forget about it though.
I’ve thought this same thing. He’s been really good every year, but 2018 (with Alex Cora) looks like an aberration when compared to the rest of his career.
And I really struggle with the thought that Betts (or anyone really) makes more than the game’s best player. It will happen one day, but Betts? I don’t think so.
We’ll have to see what MLB’s report says in regard to the Red Sox.
david ortiz says mike fiers looks like a snitch. funny coming from a steroids user!
To be fair Ortiz never tested positive. Now i assume the Astros cheated in ‘18 and ‘19 with only circumstantial evidence, so I’m not going to tell you what to believe, but I don’t think its fair to call him a cheater.
the biggest head in baseball? many blow-outs? i use steroids and hgh’s for medical reasons. i know when i see one.
Fair enough. As i said, as fans we should draw whatever conclusions we choose. You can sure get around a drug test in pro sports, we all know that.
beside, he did tested positive according to the mitchell report. bonds, who are treated like a dog with rabies only was named in the same report while steroids weren’t against mlb rules.
If memory serves….wasn’t Ortiz’s supposed drug use never disclosed along with many others?…It was widely known that he was on the “list” but results have been tied up in litigation although he has never been able to shake allegations that he did test positive for something….we just don’;t know what.
If that’s the case how can you say he never tested positive when the results were never disclosed?
“Ortiz never tested positive.”
FALSE
Big PEDee was never suspended but he’s a confirmed user.
I think we will see that Springer and Betts aren’t as good as people think they are. They are above average but not superstars unless they know which pitch is coming.
Hopefully Yankees sign Betts and Trade Judge. Judge is injured way too many times
Yeah, and Betts has speed on the field and bases.
Speed doesn’t usually age well.
Judge is just as fast as, if not faster than Betts.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/sprint_speed?ye…
Betts overall game is not tied to speed!
I reserve my “Judge”ment for this season. If Judge is unable to stay on the field for at least 130 games and Betts has at least a 7ish WAR season, then I might be convinced to pursue Betts and let Judge move on. But only if you can get get Betts for $300-$330MM. If he has a 10 WAR season (I don’t believe he will, ever again) and goes for $360MM or more, forget it.
Looks like big money is available for the top players, especially if the taxpayers continue to foot much of the cost of facilities. I don’t begrudge those who work hard and have the talent/skills to make what they can. I cannot afford to go to MLB games as the cost of tickets and parking is well beyond what my income will allow. Too bad for me. Just the way it goes.
when the astros play at the angels’ the cheapest ticket is $18.00. you can surely afford it.
Most ballparks have non reserved seating in the outfield that’s affordable. You don’t have to sit at field level or rub elbows with the yuppies in the stadium club.
How did Castellanos beat minor? Minor was an all star last year and Castellanos wasn’t
Minor starting his new contract at age 33, it seems difficult to top three years.
What does making an All-Star Game have to do with anything?
How is LeMahieu so far down???????
He’s older. Not a candidate for a long deal. I think this list was by potential total value of a new contract.
Power rankings are fluid. Anything can happen between now and the end of the season. It’s a fun as of today guess list which is always welcome.
Semien is an interesting case. Was an average hitter until last year. How much of that improvement was him and how much was the ball?
OPS+ increased from 95 to 138, and that’s accounting for relativity with other players, assuming everyone benefited from the ball. That is quite the uptick.
maybe, just maybe, a’s applied lessons learned from astro tricksters?
Maybe he just got better? Lol, I think sign-stealing is pervasive but I think more players deserve overall benefit of the doubt. JD Martinez is an example, and so forth.
Um, JDM best year is the one year Boston is under investigation lmfao
Ok then explain how he went from being cut by the Lastros to a star with the Tigers with a 154 wRC+ in 2014. That’s what I mean. It is possible to morph into a good player naturally.
Semien is the hardest working guy in MLB. Went from easily the worst defensive SS to a gold glove nomination. The dude puts in work. His bat was always kinda there. He might not hit 33 homers again but should be good for 20+ the next 5 years.
@You know what this is called? Intimidation. – Mechanics are everything in baseball. One adjustment can flip the JDM/Turner/Muncy types from scrubs to superstars.
Absolutely. Or it’s as simple as getting a chance. I believe this is the case with JD Davis. He crushed it in the minors but never broke the Astros IF and now he has a chance to develop consistently.
Worth noting his defense got substantially better too
We all know who is going to be #1 after 2021. The Machine… Albert Pulos.
especially since Springer didn’t actually hurt anyone
————-
Yes, he did. He hurt everyone he was competing against. And yes, you are an Astros apologist. Obviously. This is pretty much the definition of the thing.
Across 15 and 16 he was still a great player (~130 wRC+), and his best year was 2019 anyway.
Who says he wasn’t cheating those years too? I would find it close to impossible to believe he just did it the one season.
Then you have as much proof of that as we have of any other team cheating during that time. Especially after they dug through tens of thousands of emails. The Athletic has the Yankees under suspicion during those years too, so?
Oh stfu, there’s video of buzzers falling off their bats during the 2019 World Series
NOTHING is allowed on your bat past the label during the game. Anyone remember George Brett…?
To the other moron who will reply, no you don’t play with authentication stickers
And this feel off THE TIP of the bat. Of course they all were cheating for the entire time. Why would they stop???
Tell me that. Why would you stop?
m.youtube.com/watch?v=zAIqyPIv-q8&feature=you…
Go 50 seconds in. Tell me what metal is good to at the end of the bat, if they were legitimate?
I mean, if you really like James Bond movies I see how you could think something like a piece of tape or a band-aid is a buzzer that can be operated wireless and then placed on the tip of a bat and be trusted not to fall off (for every other hitter besides Chirinos on this one AB), and then generate enough power to cause a vibration that a player can feel over the crowd noise *and* not alert the catcher or umpire and cause a stoppage of play, especially when it falls off the middle of the AB, then sure.
But frankly I’m not seeing it. Amazing your name is common sense, lol.
You should definitely change your name from “common sense” to something else if you think that proves anything.
You don’t think a player would feel a vibration more than a trash can noise?
Oh? And the bat tip is the farthest part of a batters stance from a catcher and ump, once holding the bat. It faces AWAY from them
Again, NOTHING is supposed to be on that bat. What is it? It’s obvious they were cheating. This is just the most clear video of it failing
Look at how much it stuck to his glove. They clearly didn’t expect it to fall off. You’re a fool l
Nice way to frame it, but you’re a joke. Hahahaha
Again if they weren’t cheating, what is it Goat?
It can’t be anything that’s not illegal
You just proved my point that you need a powerful buzzer if it’s supposed to sit on the end of the bat, which is closer the umpire, and possibly visible to him while in your stance, facing away from you, *and* you still feel a reliable rumble over the crowd noise in a world series game.
Then, if it’s that powerful, you should expect noise to be loud enough for the catcher and umpire to notice if it’s vibrating against wood.
And then on top of all that you could expect a game stoppage if it falls off and it really is an electrical device. Unless you believe, again, that they are mad scientists able to make buzzers that small and that powerful and that quiet at the same time.
Because as FANS, we don’t need proof. Is it really so unreasonable to you that people think that with the same GM in place they wouldn’t have just magically stopped their behavior? It seems more reasonable to me that they got better at it, and were more careful as the league grew more aware of the problem. You fall back on the same ‘innocent until proven guilty’ line in every comment section regarding the scandal even though that line is as meaningless as the 2017 world series trophy and Altuve’s MVP!
“Because as fans, we don’t need proof.”
I honestly just stopped there because this is getting comical
Why would it need to be powerful?
If anything, it needs to be less powerful on a piece of wood then to get thru2-3 layers of fabric
Wood is a electric conductor. It doesn’t take much
You’re claiming implausibility when we have video. Like dude we’re past the “nah they couldn’t do that!?”
And your bat faces away from catcher and ump, toward pitcher when hitting
Like really? When it’s gonna buzz is 2-3 seconds before the pitch. The batter isn’t holding the bat to the ground. He’s in his stance, so the buzzer is far from the catcher and ump.
Wood being a conductor has nothing to do with it unless you wanted to shock yourself, and even then he has on gloves. There is no way that you can stand in the box and not get called out immediately if you had something fishy on the end of your bat like that. Lol like no one ever looks at your bat when you’re in the box?
You know what this is called is an astros troll fyi.
“Anyone who disagrees with me online is a troll” lol ok grandpa, how about contributing to the discussion? Or are you going to back up the dude that thinks wood being a conductor makes a buzzer more effective?
Well I think that the astros were using buzzers yeah, it might be far fetched to think it was on the bats but its not far fetched to watch altuve and think that there’s something wrong with that picture. I do think I misspoke in saying you’re a troll, maybe you’re not, so for that I apologize, but I do wholeheartedly disagree with just about everything you say regarding this scandal.
I at least think this is a more fair take, lol, and more cause for concern. I shouldn’t have been harsh then.
All good, I brought it upon myself. It’s just that from my perspective, when you combine the actions of Altuve, players coaches and executives from across the game telling the Nationals that they need to be concerned about the Astros cheating, player statements that they believe they were still cheating in 2019, their lies (according to Manfred) about having stopped cheating in the ‘17 playoffs, the fact that Luhnow was still there, and the fact that I believe their pitchers cheat (based on increases in RPM that can’t realistically be achieved without the use of foreign substances), there’s just no way that I will ever believe that they didn’t continue to cheat at the plate.
As a side note, if Coppolella is banned for life (I’m a Nats fan, I don’t have an opinion one way or the other whether he should be or not) Luhnow should certainly be as well. I assume he’ll never get a job anyway, but the league should have made that official.
I don’t see why you just wouldn’t have something on your body. So makes no sense to have tech in a bat. Weird though why he was worried about picking it up unless umpire told him too.
I hope you realize that wood is not a conductor. (Slap face emoji)
I am definitely disillusioned with Luhnow’s acceptance of the scheme, lol, wish he would just write a book about all this and spill the beans on *any* electronic sign stealing going on and just blow the top off this if he isn’t going to find work again.
I just hope one day we find out for sure.
You probably had your feelings hurt when the Astros apology wasn’t “sincere” enough.
it was not sincere enough, that’s a fact
There was very little of anything about sincerity about how the Astros, starting with their owner and all the way down the player list handled the allegations….nothing sincere about what/how/when they said anything.
Some people know what a genuine apology is, others don’t. People who are not sincere pretty much never get it right. They offer non-apology apologies.
I don’t know why they even tried to apologize? At least some of them, one minute they are apologizing then next they tell us it didn’t have any outcome on winning games.
I probably didn’t make this clear enough, but I meant that Springer did not physically hurt anyone, as opposed to someone accused of domestic violence. The Astros might be MLB’s villains right now, but many players have come back after cheating at baseball. For example, I didn’t see much harping about steroids when Yasmani Grandal signed.
Sorry, but how many guys are out of the game becuase Springer needed to pump his stats?
Bregman? All of them
They didn’t shoot someone but violence isn’t the only harm. They took a piss on the fabric of the game….
One difference is that Grandal served a 50 game suspension. Not only could he not play and keep up hi skills and contribute to his resume, he paid millions of dollars as a kind of fine in lost income. So, for many of us, he paid his dues. The Astros have paid no dues. There is unsettled business with Springer. He did not pay any dues. He collected his WS winnings. Heck, if the Astros cheated in 2018 and/or 2019, then there is unsettled business with Cole. If this turned out to be true, The Yankees would not have known this was the case at the time of doing the deal with Cole, then the Yankees might have some remorse in that case… As a fan, I would.
How many times the Yankees play the Astros in 18 19? If they didn’t know they were cheating then they got a team of idiots and it’s on them. You know as a pitcher or catcher if your signs are being stolen or you are tipping your pitches. Might take a while but eventually you know. Either they didn’t cheat or don’t care about it enough to not sign Cole.
Hey, going through all of the comments, and seeing all of the writers at MLBTR replying to people’s comments makes me happy. I just wanted to thank y’all for being so involved with your commenters.
Rangers likely most interested in Springer and possibly one of Bauer, Ray, or Stroman if they do not extend which would be stupid or if one or more of current 5 get moved at deadline. If Huff winds up in a trade could see them extremely all in on Realmuto.
Yeah I was thinking the same thing, that if Huff was involved in a trade we should go get Realmuto. But Realmuto might be extended by Philly, so you never know. I’ve been saying we will probably get Springer, and put him at leadoff when Choo leaves this season. I hope if we don’t extend Minor that one of our young guys comes up like Allard or Burke or Palumbo. So I can’t see us signing a starter next year. Maybe Liam Hendricks though for the back end to pair with Leclerc (and hopefully Evans). Good offseason next year for sure.
Just like they were interested in everybody this year and ended up with Todd Frasier.
I heard Big Papi say that Fiers was a snitch. This coming from a guy that juice throughout his career. Your new nickname rhymes with snitch.
Mitch?
Twitch?
Glitch
Hitch. As in AJ.
Which?
That was the weakest write up on Springer. If other teams are going to offer him $12MM AVV or something to that nature because of his involvement w the 2017 scheme, then he’ll be an astro until he retires… meanwhile, Betts wins an MVP in 2018 and the Sox are still under investigation for a similar scheme to the Astros in 2018, yet no mention of cheating? Betts was great in 2017 as well, you know, the same year the Sox were caught cheating.
Betts went from 6.4 WAR to 10.9 to 6.8. 10.9 was 2018. What are you saying?
I heard Big Papi say that Fiers was a snitch. This coming from a guy that used PED’s throughout his career. Your new nickname rhymes with snitch.
He needs to admit he’s a druggie. Too bad he came back from Miami
Not even an honorable mention for Ken Giles. Lol.
Re: Springer – do we all really just buy that no evidence found of cheating in 2019 means the Astros weren’t doing something? Like, they’d done if for 2+ years, were getting away with it, and decided to just stop? More likely they tried to perfect it.
I don’t necessarily buy that they didn’t do it in 2019.
My overarching point is that I think Springer is a very good player regardless.
I mean, the commissioner has been so upfront and honest with the mlb players and fans, why would he lie in his report???
Ok so this investigation you don’t like but if any of us were to bring up that Yankees investigation that they spent like thirty minutes opening and closing, you lean on it like it’s 100% fact? Alright dude lol
If he’s back and 100% healthy I think the Angels make a solid effort to extend Simmons.
I would like to see in the George Springer blurb reference to the Washington Post report that cheating was taking place in 2018 and 2019 as well as 2017. I’d like to see reference to the fact that other signaling methods besides the garbage can may have been used (and were used if the WP report about 18 and 19 was true, since the garbage can does not seem to have been used). I’d like to see reference to the Fangraphs analysis that showed the trash can banging scheme materially improved Springer’s stats in 2017, and the inference that other signaling types may have had similar positive effects for him in 2018 and 2019. I wouldn’t call you an apologist, but I think your blurb misses the weight of the anchor that Springer may be carrying.
Let’s also not forget that loads of players are enraged with the Astros hitters. Are MLB teams going to sign up for the potentially troublesome clubhouse dynamics? Not a lot of teams without at least one player that has made a strong comment.
Then you need blurbs on 2015+2016 that said he was already a star leadoff hitter, and then blurbs on all the players and writers coming out with cases against the Yankees, including Ryan Spaeder in the last couple days.
You have no credibility whatsoever. There has not been a single authoritative report linking the Yankees to this scandal. Ryan Spaeder is not a reporter nor he is an eye witness, and he didn’t even purport to break any news. He expressed an overt opinion, which he frequently does against the Yankees if you read through his social media conversations.
Performance 4 and 5 seasons ago has a minimal impact on free agent earnings. Not sure that deserves the kind of blurb that prominent participation in the biggest scandal in baseball history deserves.
Mr conspiracy theory
You’re now quoting A Red Sox fan as if he’s an authority. Go away, your team is a freakin cheater. Get over it. It’s just them
Also, why don’t you answer me this
If the Yankees and dodgers and others were cheating, why did they contact national players are warn them about Houston’s system? If they were using it too…. why would they do that? Ruin their own cheating system!
Pssst, cause they weren’t
Pssst, why did Palmeiro deny steroids? Because he thought shoveling enough water out of the boat would keep him from sinking. There is such a thing as fabricated outrage.
And it’s not just Spaeder. It’s Logan Morrison, it’s Jack McDowell, Tim Flannery, Joe Musgrove, John Smoltz, on and on and on. So yeah there’s reason to believe the MLB wants this discussion closed so that they can pin a few guys down as the perpetrators and sweep it under the rug with minimal PR damage. This is the reason that when we think of A-Rod we think of a dirty juicer, but not if I were to start reminiscing on Bagwell or even David Ortiz.
I didn’t say they were guilty. I said it is worth an investigation for the sake of the game’s integrity. Acting like one team is going to cheat and all the others are going to sit on their thumbs and say, oh well *that’s* just *wrong* is clearly not how baseball has operated in the past, all the way back to the days of spitballs.
So you’re comparing steroids, a 15 year epidemic at least
To one single team cheating for 3 years. And you claim that b/c Palermiero wanted to protect his own HOF case, the Astros weren’t cheating?
You’re missing the point. One is a denial, Palmerio. That’s what Houston is doing
The others- yankee players, Dodger players, Clev others were reported- CONFIRMED this was happening, not denied it. It’s the polar opposite. They have nothing todo with each other
As in, they confirmed it was happening but denied that they had anything to do with it. Key distinction. Saying, “the Astros are the ones who cheated” definitely implies “not us.” And you don’t get that at all and it’s nuts, haha
Just like Palmeiro could/would say, well *those* guys are the cheaters, I’m just fine. And if this worked he could reasonably expect a bump in his weighted stats if all those guys got knocked off. Those are three teams you just named that have a vested interest in seeing the Astros weighed down as much as possible regardless of what they do on their own and regardless of the writers and players that say they’re not clean themselves.
Like, yeah Bauer is going to really love this because he tried to pin pine tar on them and looked like a total clown. He is obviously able to latch onto this as a moral victory. And then you got Clevinger, who likewise got beat in the 2018 ALDS and regular season. If you throw in that he himself cheated on his girl then yeah like he’s supposed to be a beacon of honesty? Lol
You failed to list one eyewitness or news breaking reporter. Partisan statements and salty opinions mean nothing.
If that’s your standard then I don’t know how you take the opinions of Judge or Bellinger seriously because apparently they didn’t know until they were told about it.
It’s not about needing an eyewitness, it’s about compiling word from reporters and players who have their sources, including press releases by players who talk about how normal this is, and this catalyzes you to decide that an investigation into this thing is necessary, especially when baseball is known, without a doubt, for catching onto trends when trying to get an edge or level the playing field.
Players do not have to be on the team to see something fishy either. These are guys that play 162+ games and they are allowed to say when something doesn’t feel right. This is the case with Chris Sale against the Tigers. Was he wrong? Well maybe. But would you not trust him if he feels that something is off compared to all the other games he’s pitched before at a high level? That’s on you.
Finally, we already know that these teams are not 100% clean. Both already got fined. Clearly they were not averse to sign stealing in some capacity. Drop the act that your team is somehow more righteous and instead push for the MLB to show who out of the 30 teams was doing this and stamp it out once and for all.
Is it tho? If they were cheating the EXACT same way as you continue to imply, why would they say anything?
The would be ruining their own cheating system to help the team that eliminated they from the playoffs (LAD)? Seems more likely they weren’t cheating and knew Houston was…..
but you’re mr Houston conspiracy theory so go for it
They all cheat. It’s baseball. Quit pretending like there’s any integrity left in this world. Dude from angels overdosed on a road trip yet WAY over 99% of drug tests are passed. Gardner and Calhoun are near 40 yet putting up career highs in power and an abnormal amount of players resurge their careers w yanks. You don’t need a smoking gun w a century of cheating scandals on the books.
What’s your integrity worth ? Are you going to pass up on millions or a chance to be a super star in a moment ?
Also domestic issues make you not able to comment on Houston cheating? You’re just trying to shift the conversation
And pointing the finger does nothing when an investigation is coming. It makes you open for criticism. If they were doing it, it would be f’n dumb to rat on the details of how it worked
You keep saying palemerio as an ex. He was retired. We’re talking current teams. Is has nothing to do with this. Stop trying to change the topic with bad analogies
Didn’t say it was exact, but apparently it means nothing to you that MLB already dismissed flashing lights and whistling, and if they did, that would logically mean that the Astros weren’t electronically stealing signs, or else they would have gotten popped right there.
And yes I do think they would rat out another team in such a way. You don’t find it odd either that the Nats’ name has come up? You also don’t think they wouldn’t partake in this system knowing at least two other teams in Houston and Boston do this? History already shows you that’s ridiculous in baseball.
And yeah frankly if guys like Palmeiro and Clevinger are a little slimey then that does weigh down on them a little if they’re making character accusations, like if Clevinger is saying he’s mad that the Astros covered it up by not saying anything (which, btw, Cole is guilty of). This goes for Fiers too, who literally tried to fight his own manager after getting pulled from a game.
Really? Using a guy addicted to pain medicine to justify the Astros cheating?
You’re a disgrace
I’d believe MLB if they were honest. They said 2017 only
We already have since gotten proof it was 2017, 2018 and possibly 2019
How do you pretend it’s an authoritative report when it’s been proven to have ignored key facts to minimize this? You can’t. It looses all credibility. You can’t piece is back together
Manfreds report doesn’t deny anything. He lied to us once believing him to not lie now is beyond Naive
If you read what he said he wasn’t “using his death” but he was pointing out the drug problems that somehow go unaddressed in MLB.
If you’re allowed to believe that report then we are allowed to believe the Yankees and Sox reports have omitted or will omit information. You can’t pick and choose the parts of the reports you want to believe.
Ignore him he’s a troll.
Answer me goat.
I’m not a troll, I want you to stop being a conspiracy theorist
NoCommonsense and Beisbolista are wrong as usual. Do you 2 ever spend any time out of your empty lives not dwelling on this Astros BS? And posting mindless pathetic rantings about it round the clock? Nobody cares. No one except for you two and Mo4ever, who’s almost as bad, wants to read the crap you post. Move along and stop coming on here crying and whining every day about this overblown “scandal.”
You must have missed all the polling on the subject. Stop trying to act like you are not among the very small minority on this issue. And also you respond every time I post so aren’t you the pot calling the kettle black with regard to posting around the clock. Pathetic
Did you say “overblown” to describe one of the worst scandals in MLB history? Not a baseball fan I assume. Basketball has forms also.
I’m surprised JD Martinez didn’t make this list. He can opt out again after this season as well.
Ken Giles deserved an honorable mention at the very least. His 2019 was too dominant to overlook. Then again he was snubbed from the ASG and should have been the only Blue Jays represented.
I firmly believe if Bauer’s 2020 season mirrors his season in Cincinnati last year, then he’s going to have a much more difficult time securing a decent contract than other pitchers with similar abilities. His antics and comments will catch up with him, unless he dominates on the mound.
Bauer claims to seek one-year contracts going forward, which is a gamble, but he’s building a media presence on his own. He’s a rogue, and a fan favorite.
Everyone should believe that. Is that a dig at him or the system at hand ?? You post something online as a person of interest then it’s a thought out conclusion you are going to stand by while many beat writers today are part of mlb team staff who participate in damage control.
I’ll always side with an individual who stands up for free speech vs silencing techniques of Corp America.
I really don’t care one way or another what Bauer does. Ultimately, it’s the owners who care and the owners have a business to run. If they believe Bauer has a high risk of being bad for business, they’re not going to sign him. Owners want conformists, not people that beat to their own drum.
Marcus Stroman has a bad attitude and an overrated approach – no thanks. Like Stroman, I would not introduce Trevor Bauer into my locker room.
Castellanos is going to have a monster year surrounded by good hitters in mid of reds lineup playing at great American small park. He will surely opt out after that considering Boras is his agent.
Bauer’s money comes off the books.
Reds continue to spend next offseason and sign Simeon and realmuto out of next class
Castellanos having a 3.0 WAR ceiling isn’t getting a better deal if he opts out. Reds are stuck with him and his terrible defense until they can find an AL team to take him on.
Thanks for the link to the SI story regarding Bauer. He’s quite the character. A lot to like and dislike about him at the same time. And yet, it’s true that he’s had only one truly good season in his entire career. I wonder how much of that, if any part, might be related to him thinking TOO far outside of the box at times?
No one is going to touch Springer with a 10 foot pole. Astros will probably sign him long term. No one’s going near any of those core cheaters.
Dodgers just traded for Betts, Rangers signed Chirinos, Yankees signed Cole (who denies they cheated, contrary to what MLBTR Yankee fans believe), Mets traded for JD Davis and Marisnick, Blue Jays traded for Giles and Derek Fisher, and so on. This must not be a real problem for these franchises.
If he doesn’t re-sign, what are you going to do? Because you’re obviously wrong on the part where nobody is going to touch him.
All depends on how Springer and the other cheaters do this year. And I think they know that. If he and the others can proceed without a hitch, they’ll get contracts when they’re up for them. IMO.
Jake Odorizzi not on here?
I may be in the minority, but I do not see Bauer having a good year nor him getting anywhere close to 30 million. The 20 million will be a stretch.
Nobody wants to play with Springer. Not even Jerry.
Dear Favorite Team,
Please do not sign George Springer next year. I’m really just not interested, at any price.
Regards,
Fan
The Astros free agents will be fascinating, especially as more players are becoming outspoken against them. Signing those guys and asking your team to invite them in as teammates will be interesting.
Castellanos will get a DH gig somewhere.
Dodgers should extend Turner and let him swap positions with Muncy .
JT and DJ. Braves desperately need JT, DJ is just a player I’d love to have although there isn’t exactly a spot for him.
For how hard it seems for mid tier OFers to get long term deals, I think there is no way Nicky C opts out. He is a Red for the long haul.
I know the White Sox won the Quintana trade and did pretty well on the Eaton and Sale trades, but sometimes, it sucks to think they could have also right now have had Semien and Tatis, Jr.