With most of the free agent action already completed, attention has shifted to some major remaining potential trade chips. We’ve seen a lot of chatter but little in the way of blockbuster swaps thus far.
Pirates outfielder Starling Marte continues to stand out as a trade candidate. He’s a significant talent and consistent performer, having contributed at least 3 fWAR in every one of his full seasons in the majors. Of course, that’d also be a true-but-misleading way of glossing over a 2017 campaign cut short by a PED suspension. That’s not likely to be much of a factor given the past market treatment of players receiving punishment and the amount of time that has elapsed.
Marte has his flaws. Beyond the PED bust, he doesn’t walk much, dipped a bit in the defensive metrics in 2019, and didn’t produce an impressive exit velocity last year. He’s also not especially youthful at 31 years of age. But Marte is a well-above-average hitter and outstanding baserunner who’s at least capable of holding down center field, even if he won’t add significant value there as he ages. His remaining contract rights — an $11.5MM salary in 2020 followed by a $12.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) — are undeniably a positive-value asset for the Bucs.
The Pirates are still said to be holding talks. Perhaps new GM Ben Cherington now has a better sense of how he’d like to proceed after a few months on the job. So, now that we’ve already seen so many players find new homes, which teams still shape up as plausible landing spots for Marte?
Mets: The New York org has been tied to Marte more than any other club. Adding Jake Marisnick took away the immediacy of the need up the middle; he’s currently slated to share time with Brandon Nimmo. With Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis, and perhaps Yoenis Cespedes in the mix at the corners, there’d be a bit of an overload in the case of an addition. Of course, one or more of those players could be on the move in a Marte deal. First baseman Dominic Smith would also be a candidate to move, though the Pirates have a younger first bagger already in Josh Bell so a third team might end up in the picture.
Diamondbacks: The last Marte worked out; why not another? Ketel Marte is presently penciled in at center, but the team’s preference is to play the budding star at second base. Acquiring the Pirates’ Marte would mean a primary outfield alignment with him up the middle and Kole Calhoun and David Peralta at the corners. Moving the preexisting, more youthful Marte into the infield would force some infield reshuffling but wouldn’t cause any major problems. The Snakes have a deep farm system from which to deal.
Rangers: With Delino DeShields Jr. out of the picture, the current plan in Texas is to plug in Danny Santana in center in hopes he can sustain last year’s BABIP and home run surge. The backup plan would be to slide star slugger Joey Gallo back up the middle, though the club seems disinclined to wear him down too much. Adding Marte would bring a lot of balance to the situation, with Santana functioning in a utility role, and help make up for the Rangers’ failed pursuit of Anthony Rendon.
Padres: While the Friars continue to work to consolidate their talent pool into present MLB ability, they’ve still prioritized value and pursued upside. That explains why the team’s current big league center field mix features Trent Grisham and Manuel Margot, with Taylor Trammell on deck — if he can finish his development and transition to the game’s highest level. Marte would be a different piece entirely, one seemingly well-suited to the Padres’ claimed aspirations of near-term competitiveness. There’s certainly ample talent to draw upon in trade talks.
Braves: There’s still a lot of thump in the middle of the Braves’ lineup, but 2020 may be dry unless the club finds a new rainmaker to make up for the loss of Josh Donaldson. While the Atlanta roster features two plausible center fielders — defensive wizard Ender Inciarte and young star Ronald Acuna — it could still be improved through the addition of Marte. The Braves could utilize him in the corners at time, limiting the burden on both Marte and veteran Nick Markakis, while allowing Austin Riley to focus on his customary third base (and on adjusting to MLB pitching). Most importantly, the Atlanta lineup would add a 20/20 performer who turned in a 119 wRC+ in 2019.
Phillies: Don’t sleep on the Philadelphia organization, even if a cross-state swap might prove tough to orchestrate. With Odubel Herrera officially out of the picture, the club’s center field mix features Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, and Nick Martini, with Scott Kingery presently slated for primary duty at third base. The Phils need to upgrade in center or at third if they’re to make a much-awaited breakout. Adding at the hot corner might be preferable in some regards, but the potentially available trade candidates all have sky-high price tags. Marte may now be the most plausible finishing move for the Phillies.
Blue Jays: It’s a bit of a surprise that the club has thus far retained closer Ken Giles. Now it has picked up a long-awaited rotation anchor in Hyun-Jin Ryu. So … could the Jays pursue a second big addition of the winter? Center field could be manned by an assortment of players — Randal Grichuk, Anthony Alford, and Teoscar Hernandez are among the existing options — but there’s plenty of room to improve. The Jays want to allow opportunities for a few younger players, but there’s a risk of being caught in the middle in 2020. With two years of control left over Marte, adding him wouldn’t be overly committing.
Division Rivals: Presumably, the Bucs won’t be overly sentimental with respect to Marte. It would sting to see him playing for a division rival, but the organization needs to maximize its resources after a brutal 2019 season. So it’s at least conceptually possible that discussions could be had with some fellow NL Central clubs — though there surely won’t be any discounts. The Cubs stand out from the perspective of need, as they’re presently set to roll out some combination of Ian Happ, Albert Almora, and Jason Heyward. But even Marte’s reasonable salary could be an impediment. The Reds and Cardinals both have loaded outfield mixes but could still improve with Marte. The Cincinnati org has aggressively pursued veterans in recent years and could perhaps envision Marte sharing time up the middle and in the corners with recent signee Shogo Akiyama. In that scenario, young players Nick Senzel, Aristides Aquino, and Jesse Winker would alternatively be trade chips (in a Marte deal or some other swap) or other key parts of an exciting outfield mix. And in St. Louis, the ever-evolving outfield picture seemingly features Harrison Bader and Lane Thomas in center. The Cards are still dabbling in the market for Marcell Ozuna, so there’s obviously some desire to add a quality right-handed bat. And the team would surely prefer it be one that could also handle the center field position defensively.
Les Chesterfield
This should be who braves and cards are both all over. Fans dream to big- this is a nice subtle fantastic addition with good value. Clear upgrade over any FA available.
When the trade goes down- Marte’s return will be low. So if he’s not on your team- it’s bc they aren’t serious about contending for title
steelerbravenation
Why he is not a cleanup hitter & Riley isn’t ready for cleanup duty
Arrenado or Ozuna or both
braves25
@steelerbravenation
You’re right Marte is not a cleanup hitter…but he could hit leadoff and Acuna hit #4. Marte would also get either Inciarte or Markakis out of the lineup.
Marte
Albies
Freeman
Acuna
Riley
That 1-5 would be really strong…with any combination of Duvall/Kake/Inciarte, Swanson, d’Arnaud/Flowers after makes for a pretty solid 1-8.
I wouldn’t hate it anyway!
rct
Marte will probably give you a .330 OBP. Not sure you want him leading off.
Shawn McLaughlin 2
Looks like Ozuna is now a Brave for 1 year $18M, so, Marte is probably out of the picture now. Besides, Pache is a pretty similar player to Marte except probably better defensively but, while faster, is not yet the base runner Marte is. I’d wager Pache will be ready by mid 2020.
ctside26
Pirates aren’t taking a low return for Marte. If that happens then the Bucs won’t move him until the trade deadline.
No reason to give him away – his salary is manageable for the Pirates – he’s a perfect trade chip – they need to get the max value in return.
DrDan75
Only one of those teams… or some other team… or no team at all should the Bucs decide to keep him… is going to get Marte. With all those clubs in the mix and the Pirates out of contention for the foreseeable future, they are just watching the bidding go up and counting on the best possible haul of prospects.
In other words, they’re doing exactly what a second division team with one good player should be doing.
dcahen
DrDan-what do you mean by one good player? You don’t think Bell, Reynolds, Newman, Frazier, maybe even Moran who hit close to .300; none of these guys are good? Taillon’s TJ surgery hurts a struggling SP group, though Musgrove & Williams could start on nearly every team; they simply have had 5 #4 starters for a few years, but the Pirates will be back in the hunt even in 2021.
cspera77
His return won’t be low, it’s going to take 1 or 2 top 100 prospects plus something else
turner9
Marte to the Jays
McGuire Alford and a prospect to PIT
goalieguy41
Not going to happen.
jaysfansince1977
Too much for 2 years of Marte, Maybe Alford and lower level prospect is more in range! Jays would be crazy to trade either of the young catchers just yet!
Dexxter
McGuire I think is destined to be a defensive minded backup… and Alford could be a star… but that’s less likely every year. With a lower ceiling prospect like Zeuch or something I’d do this if I’m the Jays. Pirates likely want something more.
Jays likely aren’t a playoff team next year even with Marte… so not big on giving up assets for 2 years of control.. when you’re realistically competitive in only one of them.
Having said that… all three of these guys could be worth next to nothing next year for the Jays depending on their performance this year.
I’d almost prefer the Jays jump in on that Mets/Pirates trade. Jays get Dom Smith, chuck some further off prospects to the Pirates and the Mets end up with Marte. In some form I’m sure this idea could work.
bleacherguy
I like this idea too. But why Smith? Why not Nimmo instead?
Bill M
The article implies that Smith would be included. That means Nimmo to the Pirates & Smith to some other team. Don’t worry, it’s not gonna happen.
aberdeen101
Stop overrating Nimmo. What has he done? He wishes he could be 50% of Marte.
Bill M
That’s why I said it’s not gonna happen. See how that works?
jaysfansince1977
Sorry Dexxter, I really do not like the mind set of trade them for whatever right now because they “MAY” regress and not be good, That way of thinking can then be flipped to saying by the next trade deadline they both could be twice as valuable, so hold on to them! Marte could just as easily be in decline!
802Ghost
The problem is you continue to hold and the value goes down. Atlanta has done this with a significant portion of the young pitchers.
MOST prospects don’t work out and if you can make a trade, make a trade.
fudd5150
Ever since the Andrus and wainwright trade, Atlanta has been really fun shy about trades.
Rangers29
Anytime I see the Andrus trade, it makes me laugh… good times
DrDan75
This is true. And some of those potential destination teams for Marte are just gonna decide that the price is too high for two years of team control. The Pirates want to maximize their return, obviously, but if they overplay their hand they won’t get the deal they want.
Johnny Baseball
Except the Pirates do not have to trade Marte. He is cheap and has 2 years of control left. After the end of the season the Pirates should take the approach of trading him for whatever but not now. Cherington should be asking for a top prospect or play Marte in CF in 2020. Having Marte as a Pirate is better than trading for 3-4 low level prospects when they can still trade him at the end of the season for 2-3 low level maybes.
dcahen
Vtncsc-do some simple math. If you have 25 players on your major league roster & at least 100 in the minors trying to work their way up, what percentage will make it to the bigs & stick? Lucky is making trades, prospects or veterans, where you get more in return than you give up. Few teams are consistently that lucky.
bigdaddyt
Would rather the jays go after old Charlie Blackmon. Give Colorado Grich, Alford, Smith (who’s top 10 prospect) and a A ball pitcher or 2. Jays then have a good CF for a year or 2 until they can find their CF of the future. Also gets rid of Grich who might turn his career around in coors
Dexxter
@jaysfansince1977. It’s not about whether they regress. Of course anybody can regress. It’s about what value they could have if they do.
McGuire hit really well after his call up… but doesn’t have a history or being a big hitter. If he goes back to his normal numbers next year… his value drops sharply.
Alfords value has been dropping for years and honestly he’s almost a dfa candidate at this point as he’s out of options. A bad start to the year and he probably will be.
Zeuch has fringey stuff and might get by on pitchability and sequencing… but if he gets hammered to start the year his value moves to almost zero too.
Vlad could have a bad year… but would still have loads of trade value. These three guys likely won’t.
bigdaddyt
Dude it’s a crapshoot. You could give up guys for Marte who’s potential can range from becoming All star level or aaaa level, Marte can come over and be the answer or breaks his leg game 1 and never plays the same again. It’s pro sports there are rarely trades that work out perfectly for everyone
Johnny Baseball
Tere is a chance that the Pirates make a trade w/ the Blue Jays for Marte. The Pirates do need a catcher but have Stallings & Maile and are looking for a young franchise catcher which McGuire is not. Gabriel Moreno seems like the best option from the Jays farm system that fits the Pirates needs. I would think Marte and one of either Kuhl or Feliz or maybe Calvin Mitchell from the farm for Groshans, Moreno & Kloffenstein would better fit the Pirates future needs with a minimal impact to the Jays future.
its_happening
Blackmon can’t play CF anymore and cannot hit outside Colorado. Hard no unless Colorado takes Grichuk and adds a player. Blackmon is not very good.
bigdaddyt
I was thinking jays sweeten a bit in an attempt to get Gray as well. Would make the rotation a lot better and would help Colorado’s payroll if they are gonna take it down to the studs like the marlins
joew
Not enough for two years of marte. McGuire is still yet unproven, i’d like him back, but he isn’t enough to come close to headlining. Alford fits no needs for the pirates, we already have better options. and unless that prospect is Pearson then.. no way.
Kinda like saying, give us your all star… hear you go, you DFA these guys.
ctside26
Won’t get it done
rocky7
Wow, Marte is an above average hitter (.287 career), good pop (extra base hits) and outstanding baserunner, but has major flaws the main one being he doesn’t produce impressive exit velocity???? Does that eliminate him from Sports Center highlights?
Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio?
Jeff Todd
Not sure I understand. Is there a problem with listing Marte’s many strengths and several weaknesses/areas of concern together in a post about him?
spinach
He was making fun of non-bottom line stats. Pretty standard, didn’t really need a response.
Jeff Todd
Maybe that’s exactly why it does.
joew
his weaknesses are over stated. should be a minor concern.
he’s not the outfielder he was in left, but he also had to cover more ground in center than he did in left because RF and LF defense was horrible.. not to mention not giving much of a crap after the break.. cause.. yeah .. well.. Check out.. Reynolds and Melky in left and right…. then ask Marte to cover them both… yeah.. gota be painful.
I was never a fan of exit velocity.. its one of those stats that are misleading. If you are not careful they’ll misrepresent the player.
IMO that part is his biggest weakness.. if things are not going well for the team.. hes got one of those… i don’t care attitudes.. well at least it seems that way..
ctside26
But listing a weakness that carries zero weight in terms of value – for what reason? Marte is a stud – hits for power, average – steal bases and has a rifle for an arm.
DrDan75
LOL I hate statcast. A fly ball that catches a stiff breeze counts the same as a moon shot that breaks the scoreboard. That is part of the beauty of baseball.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
I’ve always suspected that most defensive metrics are bunk but now I have evidence (beyond their obvious inconsistency).
Great range, good glove, cannon arm. He constantly turns doubles into singles (or even outs). Steals home runs.
He’s a space cadet and will let a ball drop while he waits for the other guy to get it or stares off into space, so maybe the numbers are really dinging him for that, but otherwise, it’s unclear what player they are watching.
Jeff Todd
The metrics are comparing him to other center fielders, who are of course also generally exceptional. Physical tools may still be there; perhaps it was a slight down year or he wavered a bit amidst the general cluster in Pittsburgh. It’s not a major worry but bears mention.
keysox
No brainer for Cards – Reyes and Kinzer
DTD_ATL
Doubt many teams are lining up for Reyes considering he’s made of glass.
bighiggy
I’d offer knizer and wofford. Maybe some international money too.
ctside26
That’s why your not a GM
ctside26
With Huntington gone the Pirates days of giving players away is over. It’s the main reason Marte is still a Pirate.
Rumncoke
No the Braves don’t need him
BravesCanada
They could sure use him though.
RunDMC
Agreed, but if they need to upgrade and the free agents available are Ozuna/Castellanos, Marte wouldn’t be expensive in cash or prospects, while giving us options to trade Inciarte, upgrade Kakes/Duvall and work in Waters/Pache. Could make that lineup interesting with his speed, and if Swanson/d’Arnaud can be above average offensively. You’ve got to like the flexibility. Also doesn’t hurt that Acuna and Marte are good friends.
Braveslifer
I agree on two things, 1. Rum n Coke and 2. the Braves do not need Marte. It will be interesting to see if Riley decides to lay off of sliders off the plate. If he is capable of doing that and forces pitchers to get the ball over the plate (or even closer) he can barrel it up and his numbers will get better.
fabulous61
@Braveslifer, Riley has always had a history of striking out a lot as long as he’s been playing the game, it’s not like it just happened and it’s not likely to just stop for any extended period of time. Dansby was killing it last season too and about 2 weeks before his injury he suddenly went back to a similar version of the 2018 Dansby. When Dansby really concentrates he’s shown the ability to lay off those bad off speed pitches out of the strike zone at times. Dansby has the bat speed to turn on pitches inside so he shouldn’t think he has to cheat on pitches by starting his swing early and getting fooled. Riley on the other hand doesn’t have the bat speed to catch up to fastballs on the inside as he showed when he was fooled on pitches late in the season. Something that helps any player struggling with breaking pitches low and on the outside is to move up on the plate and as far towards the pitcher as the batters box allows but most players especially power hitters insist on standing 5 feet from the plate and almost beside the catcher and they don’t stand a chance of hitting a breaking pitch unless the pitcher leaves it high and on the inner 3rd of the plate.
j0nnyg
the link to josh bell is the wrong josh bell.
swartnp7
This cracks me up…I feel like it’s ALWAYS the link to the wrong Josh Bell.
jaysfansince1977
Jeff Todd try to keep up!!!! Anthony Alford is not patrolling centre field for the Jays!!! He will need to really, really impress to make the bench for the team(no options left) Randal is the back up choice and Tesco, Fisher will be the one given every chance during Spring training to make an impression! Again Jeff try to keep up!!!
Jeff Todd
My goodness, sorry, I must have fallen behind the times here. The Jays have highly promising, up-and-coming players I forgot all about in … Teoscar Hernandez and Derek Fisher? I did note that the team has multiple younger outfielders they want to give opportunities to, which was a nod to those and other guys, but … okay, I am sorry for not lauding this crop of talent.
You are right that I should’ve specifically mentioned Hernandez as an option but metrics really did not like him up the middle last year. Fisher has minimal MLB experience in center.
Oh, and I never remotely suggested Alford is going to be the first choice in center.
Frankly, there is nothing to keep up with here. The Jays still have a big old smattering of outfielders and they’re going to more or less just see what sticks in camp and throughout the season. (Unless they go ahead and make a move to bring in an established player, a la Marte, which was what we are discussing in this post.)
turner9
Mr Todd, there appears to be an issue with the site allowing me (and others) to reply to comments.
Once I place a comment I am no longer allowed to reply to the other comments who replied to mine
If I reply to comments already made I can then no longer comment on others in that thread
The “reply” and “flag” buttons dissapear
Ducey
Jeff was explaining Marte would be an upgrade on all these guys – try to keep up.
In any event I would prefer the Jays keep their power dry on Marte. This is not a contending year, and they have a large group of OF to try and sort thru.
Phiilies2020
Does a package of mlb talent and high minor league talent get it done without including Bohm or Spencer?
E. De los Santos
A. Medina
F. Morales
B. Stott
N. Williams
For
S. Marte
K. Crick
Johhos
Wow too much of a give IMO. Not including Morales, prefer not to include Stott.
ctside26
No
jaysfansince1977
What are you saying Ducey? Maybe you should try to keep up, I questioned the content of his article which he has now edited so that my questioning does not seem relevent, but I never said Marte was not an upgrade! I stated that Alford was not the Centre fielder that was implied in the pre-edited article portion of the Jays where It was explicitely worded “maned by” Grichuk and Alford, I went on to say Fisher and Tesco would be the ones given the most chances, which the team(Atkins) has already stated by the way and Alford had a lot of work ahead to even get a bench spot let alone the start in Centre Field! MAYBE YOU SHOULD TRY TO KEEP UP!!(which I should have attached a LOL to sorry about that Jeff)
Jeff Todd
Not trying to pretend I didn’t tweak the post. I acknowledged your critique in the comments, disagreed on some points but said I agreed I should’ve mentioned Teoscar.
Nothing about the original wording implied Alford was “the centre fielder” or anything but a part of the potential mix. I listed him after Grichuk and also noted the team wants to leave room for opportunities for other younger players.
turner9
@jaysfan77
I enjoy reading your comments and think you’re quite knowledgeable about the Jays franchise as a whole.
But I think its slightly unfair to criticize Mr Todd about what he wrote. Mainly because he is not focused solely on the Jays and what he wrote wasnt incorrect, I did get to view the original unedited version and also thought “Teoscar is probably ahead of Alford on the CF depth chart” but didnt think it pertinent to voice that as it’s still possible Alford is manning CF on opening day (although unlikely)
But please continue posting on Jays related articles. Just cut the staff a break, they cant be 100% on every teams lineup and defensive construction
DockEllisDee
@turner9 – couldn’t agree more. I’ll go a step further and say maybe jaysfan can piss off and start his own hot stove site, see what kind of tripe he churns out. Seriously, I think he needs help.
Dan Hunter
Marte is going to be traded to the Metropolitans.
aberdeen101
No he won’t. Unless you give up Alvarez and Peterson.
dwightgoodenspinkynail
Kind of doubt that person is a Mets fan. Most of us want no part of Marte.
BSpar
Which is just stupid! Mets fans are worse than Yankees fans.
sch1989 2
Cespedes, Lowrie and Alvarez for Marte?
DarkSide830
Phillies have enough CF options. no thank you. Haseley is on the verge of becoming a really good OF on botb sides of the ball, ans i wouldnt want to hold him back.
southi
I’d MUCH rather Atlanta deal for Marte than deal for Arenando or Bryant. I’m also very much against signing Ozuna or even Puig.
Shawn McLaughlin 2
Too late. Braves signed Ozuna for 1 year $18M earlier tonight.
macstruts
Did a single poster even mention his PED suspension? There is not enough stigma for these guys. i don’t get it, but then again, I don’t want to.
I wouldn’t want this guy on my team.
RichardJarzynka
It looks like everybody expects their team to get Marte for nothing.
It ain’t happenin’.
You are going to give up one of your top prospects and two mid-level prospects. There are too many teams in need of centerfielders for the Pirates to trade Marte for anything less.
ctside26
Finally someone with some common sense. Cherington has also stated they will get prospects along with an everyday player. Their’s no rush to move Marte if you don’t get the right offer you wait until the trade deadline.
turner9
I wouldn’t call McGuire/Alford/Zuech nothing
McGuire fills your need for a starting C who’s young and controllable.
Alford is not far removed from being a top prospect and can fill in CF for Marte while building back his value
Zeuch is the kind of young Controllable SP prospect PIT should be seeking
So you’re filling an area of need in the middle of the diamond, getting a younger CF who could be very good if given the opportunity and a large SP who likely is a #3-4 in your rotation or better
I’m not sure what you’re expecting for Marte, but that seems fair
OilCanLloyd
Those are Mlb ready players. For a rebuild, Pittsburg would need to go deeper in the lower levels. Like Kirk and Luciano.
But don’t overpay. In the poker table that is major-league baseball the Pirates have a small stack and a terrible hand, you just have to lean on them. They really have no choice. Marte’s value isn’t going to increase.
Dexxter
Kirk is a name that could start something.
He’s got more value than McGuire I think… especially to the (potentially) rebuilding Pirates.
Cherington also was the Jays head of amateur development (or something like that) before moving to Pittsburgh… so he likely has a couple guys in the Jays system that he values more highly than most prospect lists. Espinal maybe? He pulled him over from Boston after he was the GM there.
Dexxter
Kirk, Alford and Espinal for Marte.
Baseball Trade value calculator likes it… so it must be fair!!!
Joegio
Pittsburgh not Pittsburg
its_happening
Reese isn’t supposed to be much of a hitter. Very good defender.
Zeuch still isn’t good enough to be a major league pitcher. Otherwise the Jays wouldn’t have splurged on pitching this offseason.
Alford was once a top prospect. So was Urena.
They may not be nothing. They aren’t close to being something either.
Johnny Baseball
McGuire is not the type of catcher the Pirates are looking for or he would still be a Pirate. Moreno or Kirk more fit that line and leave the Jays w/ McGuire & Jansen for the future. The Pirates already have J Martin as a 4th OFer and they don’t need another plus Oliva is not far away. Let alone the Pirates can get a similar OFer from FA like Alford instead of using Marte to trade for him. As for Zuech he is a contact pitcher and the Pirates infield defense is not built for that. It doesn’t matter what people expect for Marte but it is more than likely they will receive a better offer than that. If the Jays target Marte expect 1 of Groshans, Manoah or Kay to be involved w/ Kloffenstein and Moreno.
RichardJarzynka
Marte is a 3-WAR player making just $12 Million per season. That’s about $6 million per year less than a team would pay if he were a free agent.
You are going to pay to acquire that kind of value in a trade.
CNichols
He’s got two years of control left so we’re talking ~$12M of surplus value. Marte definitely has positive value at his salary, but it’s not like ~12-15M of positive value is going to land a top 50 prospect or a massive package.
Take for instance Makenzie Gore from the Padres, a top 5 prospect. Because Gore can make league minimum for the first 3 years of his career and then arb controlled salaries, fangraphs thinks he has about ~$50M in surplus value. That’s far more value than Marte has.
When you get to the backend of the top 100 that’s when you start to see surplus values around ~$15M, so really for Marte fair value is like 1 prospect ranked in the 75-125 range or a package of mid-tier prospects that add up to this value.
Obviously a team is going to have to pay for Marte’s surplus value but they shouldn’t have to pay an exorbitant amount for it.
Johnny Baseball
Surplus value is only used as a gage and not the norm when teams make trades. I seriously doubt that Jose Martinez & Randy Arozareno were worth 50 million in trade value to land Liberatore and a Rc level catcher but it happened.
Lovinmlb
You can’t go by just salary. His salary is nice but it’s supply and demand. He is the only c.f. available unless you want betts to play there. 5th or 6th best c.f. in MLB. Main issue in return value isn’t the player but how teams are now stingy with their prospects. Not to say he won’t get a top 50 prospect but only a top 50 by some website not by actual MLB gms.
A trade will be good for marte. I think a winning environment and playing for a new contract will do wonders for his so called defensive liabilities.
ctside26
Agree – great assessment
CNichols
@johnny baseball – of course, it’s all a sliding scale, each team has their own valuation method and these trades aren’t done on some mathematical basis where the surplus values even out on each side. There’s other variables too like team need, competitive team vs rebuilding etc… it’s just useful for giving us a general idea of value.
That being said, in the Liberatore trade you’re assuming he has the same surplus value as a 60 FV prospect like Gore, but Liberatore is actually like a 50FV prospect. Gore is a top 5 prospect, Liberatore is like barely a top 100 prospect. The gap between #5 and #100 is huge in surplus value. Liberatore’s surplus value is like ~15M which makes that trade much more understandable.
Johnny Baseball
Liberatore is not top 5 but is in the top half and Marte should be able to bring back a prospect in the 30-60’s from the top 100. Marte is projected around 25 million which should bring back more than Liberatore using your valuation.
maximumvelocity
I don’t see why a trade with the Phillies would be difficult, given they are in different divisions. I think people overstate the rivalry in general between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Pittsburgh is closer in driving distance to Detroit than it is Philly, and the rivalry has cooled since realignment 20 years ago.
It makes sense for both teams as well. I wish the WS would have pursued Marte as opposed to Mazara.
The reunion with will also be a possible plus defensively.
oleosmirf
Every indication we have says that Nimmo > Marte moving forward. So naturally the Mets will want to swap them and give up a top prospect to boot.
Typical Mets lol
aberdeen101
The idiots that think Nimmo is better than Marte make me laugh. Nimmo wishes he could be 50% of Marte. What has Nimmo done at all?
oleosmirf
Every indication we have says that Nimmo > Marte moving forward. So naturally the Mets will want to swap them and give up a top prospect to boot.
Typical Mets lol
Jesse Cook
Marte is not the power bat the Cardinals need unfortunately. I would rather them give a shot to either O’Neill,Bader,Thomas or Carlson 1st to see what they can do.
joew
@dan hunter
Mets make no sense for the pirates. Nimmo only has one more year of control and if they mets hype is right then he’ll end up costing more than marte’s guarantee easily… after that Dom Smith is about all they can offer and he doesn’t make much sense with out other moves
The pirates should be pushing for controlled mlb talent at positions of need OR prospects likely to start in 2021 if all goes well.
joew
Really the only ones that make a lot of sense are the Cubs and the Padres.
The Padres because their farm is deep and can handle losing some quality prospects and the pirates could eat some of Will’s salary to improve the return… also would give them a warm body to throw out there and hope he can return to form.
The Cubs because they have controlled MLB players that are ‘expendable’ that could step right in to the pirates line up. Happ and Caratini. It would require more pieces to move around and/or some salary considerations but those two would be a perfect fit for the pirates in 2020 and hopefully beyond. Happ is from the area too which would be nice to have a home town guy.
speaking of home town guy, Walker still out there? Would be fun to get him back for third for a year or two.
mets really don’t have what it would take with out the pirates making some other major moves.
Dan Hunter
The Mets make more sense.
Marisnick is a weak bat, and ex Astro.
Nimmo cannot cut the mustard.
jaysfansince1977
So I can piss off??? Well at least I keep the same handle on each and every site I post on, what is yours on other sites so I can see how you react to me there? Who is DocEllisDee??? and why does he feel I should Piss off? If I did start my own site I am guessing you would be posting on it with a different handle and probably a different opinion and agenda! Mine is and will always the same GO JAYS GO! FEAR THE TRUE NORTH!!! If I feel something is said in error I will point it out! Do not like it you know what you can do!!! Jeff I never meant to imply you did not own your edit of the article, I pointed it out in case the person replying had only seen the edited part of the article!
its_happening
It always looks “mean” over text form. I understand what you were trying to do. I should understand; I offend everyone.
End of the day you are right; CF will be up for grabs in spring with Teoscar, Grichuk and Fisher. Alford might see some time there. Davis will be in Buffalo when the season begins, unless there are injuries.
its_happening
Not a surprise the Jays have decided to hold Giles. They will only deal him when his worth is at his lowest. That’s the Jays way.
As nice as Marte would be in CF for the Jays they will, at-best, finish in 3rd in the AL East. Either groom Biggio for CF or make a blockbuster trade to fill that spot. Moving Biggio means searching for a middle infielder in the near future.
turner9
I dont think it’s fair to categorize the upper management so harshly.
Admittedly I was upset at the Sanchez for Fisher trade, and hindsight says the Donaldson for Mayweather wasnt good value.
But outside of that, they have done quite well in not giving away our best kids for short term gains. And haven’t sold anyone at the bottom of their value like you’re alluding to with Giles
I’m happy they have held him to this point. He could ne critical to a wild card run this year.
If we are sitting way out by the trade deadline he will be moved and I’ll be shocked if he pitches so terribly that his value plummets
His track record indicates he wont. But stranger things have happened
Give them a chance this year to see what they’ve been able to put together. I bet you’re pleasantly surprised
terrymesmer
Getting Marte for CF is stupid but he would be wonderful in LF.
its_happening
Turner – you forgot not dealing Smoak in 2017 or 2018 or even 2019. It’s more than fair to criticize the organization for taking a great asset (Donaldson) and waiting to deal him for Merryweather when holding him and offering a QO was the route to take. If he accepted it, fine.
As for Giles he will not have as great a year as he did in 2019. Not saying he will revert to 2018 numbers but his 2019 season was phenomenal. Strike while the iron is hot and deal him. To hold a player in-hopes of a wild card shot that is a loooooooonnnnnnnggggggshot is absurd. Deal Giles at peak value and settle for nothing less. That is why I wanted Sanchez to stay; to be the closer. We do not know if he would have hurt himself in Toronto.
turner9
I dont think dealing Smoak would have netted anything but a lotto ticket, so dealing him or not is a moot point imho. He was a good clubhouse guy in that time and provided adequate production and defense on a rebuilding team.
You having the same problems not being able to reply to comments?
Johnny Baseball
This article lists 10 teams that have varying need for Marte but he is not valuable enough to offer a top prospect? I am curious why the demand for Marte then, it may be that there is less supply than demand but it seems teams are trying to undervalue Marte to get him cheaply.. It should be obvious that Cherington is not acting like Huntington did and is probably why Marte is still a Pirate. Cherington is under more pressure to get value in return for Marte than he is to trade him. If you do a quick analysis of the teams in the Marte market you see multiple contending teams within three different division rivalries vying for Marte. It only makes sense that it adds to Marte’s value since if a team would prefer Marte then I am sure they would also prefer their rival not to have him. On paper if the D-Backs sign Marte over the Mets then the Vegas odds automatically switch putting the D-Backs as wild card favorites over the Mets. In 2019 Marte was ranked the 6th best CFer and w/ the built in market demand and division rivalries there is no reason that Cherington should not be able to get a valuable return for Marte..
OilCanLloyd
I think teams, more specifically fan bases, tent over value their players. There is how the industry values players and how fans perceive them. Marte has spent his whole career in Pittsburgh. Fan favorite right?
Look no further than Stroman last year. Jays fans were mortified at the return. And to be honest, Stroman had a better WAR and is far cheaper than Marte. With 2 years of control.
But I’m optimistic now that we got a good prospect in Wood-Richardson.
Fan bases need to have faith in the scouting departments. I would not be at all surprised if Pittsburgh got a boatload of very young prospects that Pirates fans have never heard of. Maybe even a compensation pick.
turner9
I don’t think the Stroman deal was bad at all. We still need to see Kay pitch and what SWR can become (or net us as a trade piece)
If we used Stroman as a comparable (apples to oranges I know) then a 1 for 1 swap of Marte for McGuire seems akin to it
I know theres no way McGuire brings back Marte on his own , that’s why I think McGuire/Alford/Zeuch or another prospect not named Pearson or Manoah can get it done
Every thing I’ve read states Pittsburgh is in major need of quality catchers. Not many young controllable catchers out there to be had, we have 2.
We also have too many OF to be bringing one in and not shipping one out, McKinney/Fisher/Grichuk/Teoscar aren’t wanted. Alford fits only because if he realizes his upside then hes an allstar and is 50/50 to even make the team out of ST. But likely cracks the pirates opening day roster. A risk yes but one that could make this trade lopsided for Pittsburgh in the long run
Zeuch is the kind of pitcher we can now part with due to the influx of SP we gained this year and going forward. We aren’t tossing him because hes trash, but because he will give value to Pittsburgh
I’ll never be a GM. But I think that’s a fair deal for both sides if no other team wants to outbid.
If other teams want to up the ante, no problem. We can pass on Marte and see if other trades come our way
Dexxter
I don’t think the Pirates would do it. Maybe Kirk, Alford, Reid-Foley or something like that.
Higher upside guys and a catcher whose service clock hasn’t already started.
I would have a hard time trading Manoah, Kay, Pardinho, SWR or Kloffenstein for a player with less than 3 years control this offseason.
jtkuch
Really all of these options make more sense than the Mets, as far as compatible partners go, especially if they’re unwilling to include Alvarez. Catching and LHP prospects should be at the forefront of the Pirates’ desires, and most of those teams have those options.
jim stem
Did the writer forget about the Phils other outfielder? Some old guy from the Pirates… (sarcasm)
Johnny Baseball
It is not hard to understand that Marte is valuable. Marte was ranked 6th best CFer last year w/ poor defense around him and he is not even a CFer. The demand for Marte is high and comes from multiple contending divisional teams. The Braves and Padres have deep farm systems loaded w/ pitchers to trade from without having a grave impact on the future. The Padres could offer 2 different value trades for Marte; RHP Patino & OF Jeisson Rosario or C Luis Campusano, LHP Ryan Weathers & the 34th competitive balance pick in the 2020 draft. The Braves also could offer 2 different packages one w/ RHP Kyle Wright & 1B Bryce Ball or LHP Kyle Mullers, C William Contreras & 1B Bryce Ball.
Lovinmlb
Will be a interesting trade. I see young talent coming back that isn’t MLB ready and doesn’t have to be a catcher. I don’t see a top 50 or even a top 100 prospect coming back. Not that some websites won’t have that prospect ranked that high but a team won’t trade a legit elite top prospect for a 31 year old outfielder. Even though marte is easily a top 10 c.f. and lots of demand for him.
No rush for pirates to trade him. They have a 60 million payroll. Could easily afford 100 million. Owner has no problem paying for performing players with name recognition. Now if marte goes to crap they will trade him along with some low level prospects for the old international signing money just to save his last 2 months of salary.
army123456
Why trade him? He is one of the best players. Bob needs to give up money. The new gm is not spending any money. The pirates will have a horrible record for the next five years if they don’t change and start spending. We need to run bob out of Pittsburgh. Freaking cheap skate. Embarrassing.