Earlier this evening, we checked in on how the five hitters who signed the richest contract extensions before last season began performed in 2019. Let’s do the same here with pitchers…
Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox – five years, $145MM through 2024: It’s understandable why the Red Sox locked up Sale, who was then coming off an otherworldly season in which he helped the club to a World Series title. Sale battled shoulder problems late in that year, however, and dealt with further injury woes and a drop in performance last season. The 30-year-old wound up throwing 147 1/3 innings, his fewest since 2011, thanks in part to elbow issues. When he did take the mound, Sale put up a career-worst ERA (4.40) and saw his average fastball velocity drop exactly 2 mph (95.7 to 93.7) from 2018. Those are alarming facts, but the bottom line is that there’s still plenty to like with Sale in the here and now. He did, after all, post a 3.39 FIP/2.93 xFIP/3.00 SIERA with an eye-popping 13.32 K/9 against 2.26 BB/9 during his “down” 2019.
Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets – four years, $120.5MM through 2023: This contract looks like a steal for the Mets, who retained arguably the best pitcher in the game for almost three times less than Gerrit Cole got in free agency this winter. After receiving his extension last March, the 31-year-old deGrom proceeded to put up his second straight NL Cy Young-winning season, during which he logged a 2.43 ERA/2.67 FIP with 11.25 K/9 and 1.94 BB/9 in 204 innings.
Miles Mikolas, RHP, Cardinals – four years, $68MM through 2023: Mikolas struggled in the majors early in his career, dominated in Japan for a couple years, and then thrived in his first season back in the bigs with the Cardinals in 2018. They were impressed enough to lock up Mikolas for the long haul before last season, but the 31-year-old declined somewhat. He still offered quality production, though, with his velocity and swinging-strike rates in the same vicinity as the previous season. Mikolas ended up tossing 184 frames of 4.16 ERA/4.27 FIP ball with 7.04 K/9 and 1.57 BB/9 (the fourth-lowest walk rate in MLB).
Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros – two years, $66MM through 2021: There’s not much to say here besides the obvious: This looks like a good decision. The ageless Verlander, soon to turn 37, just won the second AL Cy Young of his career. He’s in line to front the Astros’ staff, which lost Cole, for at least two more seasons.
Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Cubs – four years, $55.5MM through 2023: The soft-tossing Hendricks isn’t the flashiest, but the 30-year-old righty has typically kept runs off the board and limited walks. Last season was no different – Hendricks recorded a 3.46 ERA/3.61 FIP with 7.63 K/9 against 1.67 BB/9 over 177 innings. With a fastball that only clocks in around 87 mph, there’s little room for error, but Hendricks has made it work so far. Despite Hendricks’ unimposing velocity, his fastball was one of the most valuable in the game last year, per FanGraphs.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Well, it was a great extension for Sale.
Having a bad shoulder and losing the fastball is nothing to be alarmed about. Lock this guy up. Boston fans loved having their stud locked up. Just like tigers fans loved having their hall of fame first baseman locked up even though he still had 2 years left and got paid full retail. Now all the sudden they want under the luxury tax haha. Gotta love it.
Aside from Era Sale was fine
Giving up earned runs is a big flaw for a pitcher. They still determine wins and losses based on runs. Everything else is just lipstick on a pig.
That’s like saying “Aside from missing the ball, that hitter’s swing is nice.”
Red Eye: think about how different this off season would be if they didn’t rush to ink Sale. Given he has never had a strong September, it was stupid then and looks even more stupid now. They looked at the years and ran with their Montblanc for his signature. They’d have entered the offseason under the tax threshold and would have either been able to look him up for less dollars/years or would probably have already traded Price and/or Mookie because their bargaining position would have been stronger. Go back to when the contract was reported. Most Sox fans on this site were not happy with the numbers and I still say ownership approved it and all other big money deals. DD’s dismissal if it was really about the 2020 finances is BS. No proof but I’m still wondering if his leaving in August really had to do with a discovery of some type of cheating and his wanting to then remove Cora. Such is probably just a conspiracy theory on my part but why else then and not at season’s end?
If ownership didn’t approve it then shame on them. I know I wouldn’t just tell my manager that they have free roam sign and spend as much as you want no need to run it by me. Now sale can come back and be great, but I thought it was too risky to sign him. But don’t sign him and the very next year want to be under the luxury tax. Unless they planned all along to trade away expensive pieces.
In the world of advanced analytics, ERA isn’t nearly as important as spin rate or FIP or SIERA. There’s too much money to be made off analytics.
deGoat
degrom was an absolute steal. easily one of my favorite mets ever.
Mets going to lock up Stroman long term this offseason. Heard it here first. Something like 4 years, $76 mil as a base.
Actually I heard hundreds of people say that the day they acquired him. Not your exact salary though. I dunno I see the Mets giving a #3 starter more years and money than that.
Not a chance. He was apparently upset when they traded for him. Plus his stats took a step back when he came over to Queens so not sure the Mets would even want to extend him.
You have bad info. Stroman loved joining the Mets.
You sure about that?
nypost.com/2019/07/29/marcus-stromans-yankees-desi…
Have a trade idea. Given Astros’ owner Crane’s integrity and incoming Mets’ majority owner, Steve Cohen’s apparent lack thereof (look him up), how about a swap of clubs? Don’t you think Cohen and many of the Astros players would be a good match?
Are you really trying to suggest Jim Crane has integrity? That whole report was basically a whitewash by Manfred to make sure the stink didn’t touch Crane(his boss) and Crane is just dumping blame on his scapegoats
$30 million a year is not a “steal” for anyone. Yes, he probably could have gotten more in free agency, but he’s also two years older than Cole. No way would he have gotten 9 years. In yearly salary, he is not making THAT much less than Cole.
When the guy misses the whole point
It’s not the AAV. It’s the fact the Mets got him on a reasonable 4 year deal while NYY got Cole for Almost a decade
I didn’t miss the point, I disagreed with the point. There is a difference.
AAV matters because deGrom will be able to sign a new deal when this one ends. This contract is unlikely to end his career. Total value only matters in a comparison when the timeframe is the same. Of course Cole is making more because his contract is for 5 extra years. deGrom will still be able to earn a salary in those 5 years and it probably won’t be league minimum. At the end of the 9 years, deGrom and Cole will probably have earned about the same.
You just don’t understand. The Yankees are paying for Cole’s best seasons for 9 years. The Mets are actually paying deGrom for 4 years that he will be in his prime or close to it.
The Mets will get better return for their money as they don’t need to pay deGrom through his age 38 season to get his prime years like the Yankees do.
Cole is 2 years younger so if degrom is pitching for 5 years after his current deal you are the one nor talking about the same time frame
I think it would be easier trying to get my dog to comprehend this but I will give it a try. You have car A that is 8 years old you take a loan out on it for 4 years 10 grand. Car B is 2 years newer it is only 6 years old and you take a loan out on it for 9 years and 30 grand. After 3 years the car A is breaking down not running that good, it needs to be replaced it is now 11 years old. Sucks but you can live with it, you only have 1 year left and owe roughly 2,500 on it. Car B is still running strong as it was 2 years newer when you bought it, it’s only 9 years old. Now 2 more years have past and Car A has been paid off and some new owner owns it but you still have car B and it is now 11 years old and running like crap and needs replaced. But you still have 4 more years on your loan and still owe 13 grand.
Hiflew: what you are saying is that 4 years from now a mid 30’s degrom is going to earn 200 million dollars more before his playing career is over?
No one would give you a 9 year loan on a car. Also, if you take care of it, a car can easily last 10+ years. I haven’t had payments on my truck for 3 years and it will last at least 5 more years. What pitcher will play for free for 5 years?
Clearly this poster was metaphorically speaking when referring to car loans..
not if it’s a Ford or Chevy.
Jacob Degrom is going to be a free agent in 2024.. He will be 37 years old. He is not going to make as much as Cole. There is actually no chance that that will happen. Do you really think a 37 year old pitcher is going to get approx 190 MM dollars? Because that is what you’re saying. Which is why people think it’s ridiculous.
The Mets got an absolute bargain on Degrom w/o having to take the risk of a 9 year contract. So I can very easily see why people said you missed the mark here. Because you did. That is an absolutely ridiculous statement.
Scott Boras would.
The point “hiflew” over his head =)
And to think the Pirates had Mikolas for a hot minute and then traded him to the Rangers for a 1B (McGuinness) who never saw action.
Granted this was years before Mikolas saw any big league action but I’m sticking to my narrative.
Sale’s slider didn’t have the bite in 2019 because of the arm issues. Fangraphs won’t have that information. His slider is ridiculous and he hides the baseball well. Strong elbow, strong chance he returns to form.
The “timeless” Verlander? Ok, that’s good for a laugh.
Sure, guys magically start throwing harder as they age, and having a bunch of video cameras around doesn’t hurt either.
How does that help Verlander any? Do they bang trash cans to trick the opposing hitters as to which pitch is coming?
Banging on the trash can is like a tribal war beat. Pumps him up.
Hendricks is one of the reasons the Cubs will be in the NL Central race. Darvish looks like he’s got it back. Quintana is in a contract year. So is Lester, but age and too much fried chicken and beer may be holding him down.
Should alzolay and mills show there worth in spring one of those guy may get sent packing at some point