We’re on the cusp of spring training, which is also a popular time for teams and players to work out long-term extensions. We saw several of those deals handed out before last season began. Let’s check in on how those pacts look now, beginning with the hitters who inked the five largest extensions of last offseason…
Mike Trout, CF, Angels – 10 years, $360MM: It’s anyone’s guess how this contract will look at the tail end of it (see: Pujols, Albert), but despite the amount, it has the makings of a wise decision at the moment. After all, the 28-year-old Trout, already one of the greatest players in the history of baseball, continued to steamroll the opposition in 2019 – a season in which he earned his eighth straight All-Star nod and the third AL MVP of his career. The Angels really had no choice but to lock up Trout, and had they not done so, he’d be entering a contract year right now. He would also be in prime position to land an even richer contract on the open market less than a year from now.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies – seven years, $234MM: This deal already comes off as questionable for the Rockies, and it’s not because Arenado faded in 2019. On the contrary, the 28-year-old picked up his fifth straight All-Star honors and earned his seventh Gold Glove in a row. But Arenado is now known to be fed up with the Rockies because they haven’t done much to better their roster this winter after a horrid season, and he seems open to a trade as a result. However, his enormous new contract includes an opt-out clause after 2021, so teams probably aren’t champing at the bit to pay for seven years of Arenado in a trade when he could end up spending just two seasons in their uniform. And Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich isn’t just going to give away Arenado, Colorado’s franchise player, no matter how unhappy he may be with the organization. Needless to say, the two sides are in a spot neither expected to be in when they committed to each other for the long haul just months ago.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Cardinals – five years, $130MM: Arizona’s version of Goldschmidt was an elite player for most of his tenure there from 2011-18, which led the Cardinals to trade significant talent for him more than a year ago. Unfortunately for the Cards, though, the 2019 edition of Goldschmidt was pedestrian compared to his D-backs self. Goldschmidt wasn’t bad by any stretch, evidenced in part by his 34 home runs and 2.9 fWAR, but the .260/.346/.476 line he posted in 682 plate appearances comes up way short next to his career slash of .292/.391/.524. The drop-off’s not a great sign for a 32-year-old at the beginning of the biggest contract in Cardinals history.
Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros – five years, $100MM: This has not been a banner winter for the Astros, and if you follow the game at all, you know why. They are coming off a pennant-winning season, though, and Bregman was a key part of it. The 25-year-old was in the inner circle of premier players for the second straight season, slashing .296/.423/.592 with 41 home runs and 8.5 fWAR in 690 plate appearances. The Astros still owe Bregman a lot of money, but he’s young enough that it seems safe to say they won’t regret ponying up for him.
Aaron Hicks, CF, Yankees – seven years, $70MM: Thanks to the injuries Hicks has suffered since signing it, this gamble hasn’t worked out to the Yankees’ liking so far. Hicks missed all but 59 games last year while battling back and elbow problems, and when he did play, he wasn’t nearly as effective as he was over the previous couple seasons. Worsening matters, Hicks underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow this past October, meaning the 30-year-old will sit out a sizable portion of the upcoming campaign.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Trout, Nolan and the trash can man were all hits.
Hicks still has time to bounce back and really only needs to average 1.5 WAR per year to justify his salary. I think he still has another 3-4 WAR season in him.
Goldy is tougher due to age and the contract just starting.
This comment was just an excuse for you to call Bregman “the trash can man.”
Nah, but Houston is getting good bang for their buck.
Love this
I thought Bregman would be the next Donaldson but after this cheating scandal who know what his stats are? I’m sure he’s a great player but I gotta think these Astro players are going to have a hard time with future contacts.
Bregman’s road stats were actually quite a bit better than his home stats in 2019. My opinion is that he’s a premium talent, with or without cheating.
They were also only caught cheating in 2017 so the other years are probably legit.
I got caught shoplifting some gum at 7-11 once when I was 8, so I probably only did it that one time.
Dude was a stud prospect. He’s a good player. Like the Patriots, they probably didn’t need to cheat to win. But they did.
Marwin Gonzalez, however, had a massive outlier year in 2017. The Twins got taken.
He dropped his K rate 10% in one year. There’s nothing natural about that
And if you believe they only cheated in 2017 I have a beautiful ocean view house to sell you in Kansas
Lmao. Look at Gattis, Springer and Bregman K rates from 16 to 17 and tell me it didn’t help
Just like because mlb only mentioned 2017 it means they only cheated in 2017. Not like mlb is trying to push this so far under the rug they forbid a team from discussing it
Yeah no reason to think there’s more than was in the report. Nahhhh
You think there’s nothing natural about a player whose minor league career featured K rates of
9.8
9.6
9.1
14.5
Experiencing a 10% k rate spike in his 2016 217 PA MLB rookie season, followed by a return to doesn’t-strike-out-much form over his his first 3 full major league seasons
15.5
12.1
12.0
while becoming the great player he was expected to become? If you tried for a whole day I don’t think you could find less suspicious details. The rate spike is the aberration, not the drop.
“and tell me it didn’t help”
I can’t do that but I can tell you that season-to-season fluctuation in K rate is not just not suspicious; it’s barely notable.
Did you also have exceptional wealth in all the years since the 7-11 incident?
Acreage?
Did you just cherry pick players that would support that line of thinking? Or did the cheating only help some of the players and not all?
Shoeless Joe’s world series stats didn’t support a lifetime ban………….yet here we are.
Shoeless Joe’s world series stats didn’t support a lifetime ban………….yet here we are.
Godly, while a poor season for him, still has nearly 3 WAR. At $8m per WAR, he did alright. Plus, he was still on his previous deal. I imagine he will rebound and make the contract even more worth it.
Players tend to do better right when their previously agreed to extension kicks in?
He’s aging out of his prime. The deal looks fine for 2020, but can’t project well for age 36 as he’s getting slightly worse than his 20’s in his 30’s
I’m a Goldy fan and like to see great players extend their solid performance into and through their kid- to late 30’s. I hope he can put together a least three really strong years in on this contract, 5 if possible.
I didn’t like the goldschmidt contract. Too much risk. But it wasn’t one of those contracts that are obviously horrible like paying a guy 30 million until he is 40 or giving a speed dependent player a lot of years when he is 31.
Yea the Goldschmidt contract was fine. Sure he is beginning to age but there is as much upside as downside. It’s not so easy to get a possible Hall of Famer on your team for some of his prime years (if he clings to it) so it was a smart deal to make.
So BXC runner … he was on the previous deal so it does not count? You think the Cardinals would offer the same contract today? No chance.
I know some are left scratching their heads about whether the Stros were stealing signs in ’19 or not. Setting that aside, however, it’s interesting to note that Bregman (8.5 WAR) blew away Mookie Betts (6.8) last year. And everyone’s talking about Betts like he’s the hands-down second best player in baseball. In ’18 maybe. Not in ’19. Not right now. It will be interesting to see what happens in ’19. I’m going to guess that both players will be coming out trying to have career years, for different reasons. Bregman to put scandal questions away and Betts because it’s a contract year.
Your prediction is that two great players will continue trying to be great. Bold.
No. It’s that two great players will try to have their best years for specific, special reasons. As for the contract year, for example, it is a well known fact that players, great or not, frequently put forth better efforts. As for Bregman, he’ll be looking to dispel questions that his performance was tainted. A big motivator. A special motivator.
Are there players not trying to have their best year every year?
Eh, I guess it’s fun to make your own narrative. Enjoy!
So what’s your answer to why players have their best years in their contract years more often than otherwise? That’s not just something I made up. It’s a well-known fact.
And yeah, there are always players who are just phoning it in. Just like in every other profession.
Uh, because players are allowed to have a career year in any season of their careers, including career years, They’re ridiculously outnumbered by players whose career years did not occur in a contract year, but a little confirmation bias never hurt anyone.
” That’s not just something I made up. It’s a well-known fact.”
It’s a well-known ‘thing-people-say’, yes. It’s a fact like “celebrities always die in 3’s” is a fact.
“And yeah, there are always players who are just phoning it in. Just like in every other profession.”
I disagree!
*”…including contract years”
I worked 65 hours a week throughout my career. But there were years when I was especially motivated that I worked 80. I guarantee most people, even highly motivated people, find an extra gear from time to time.
Those are some long hours! Your commitment to/enjoyment of your job is admirable. I just think Professional Baseball Player is too unique in structure/compensation/etc to be viewed as just like any other profession.
Mlb stated that the Astros were not cheating in 2019. That is probably cause they couldn’t prove it but I feel that the cheating continued. Robinson chirinos and his buzzer or something incident in the World Series is very suspicious. Google it. Looks like a buzzer to me.
Mookie had a done year an almost had a 7 war Bregman is not better at the moment
I’m sure 4 out of 5 MLB execs would take Mookie over Bregman the next five years.
Probably a good poll for this site, but I would take Bregman. He’s almost two years younger and more affordable, contractually, than Betts and what he gets in his new contract.
Over the past five full seasons, Betts has had 3 years under 7 WAR (one 5.9), and two over 9 (one 10.9, the alleged stolen signs year).
Over the past eight full seasons, Mike Trout has had 1 year under 7 WAR (6.6), one at 7.6, one at 8.3, two in the 9 range, and 3 in the 10 range.
I personally don’t see any comparison yet they are made all the time when talking about what salary Betts will get.
FYI, In the past two years Bregman has had a 6.9 and an 8.4. The one proven stolen signs year, 2017, his first full season, he came in at 3.8.
It will be interesting to see what 2020 brings. Will Betts come in under 7 again or will he come in over 8 and polish his record as a superstar? How will his performance this year affect his contract haul? Will Bregman repeat and come in over 8 again and banish thoughts of sign stealing or will he drop precipitously and raise suspicions over the impact of sigh stealing on his previous success?
“I’m sure 4 out of 5 MLB execs would take Mookie over Bregman the next five years.”
Not sure there are 5 execs who can afford him. He will absolutely be overpaid something north of $300MM. Heck, some people are talking about $400MM+. Good god.
And anybody would be a fool not to have questions about and take with a grain of salt his MVP year, regardless of what the Commissioner “finds.” If they declare that there was insufficient evidence of stealing signs you can bet it was because the players saw what happened to Houston and universally clammed up. Beyond the MVP year his one other otherworldly year (9.7) was four years ago.
I know it was a few days into the season, but Xander’s 6-year $120M extension already looks like a bargain. DD’s parting gift to Red Sox Nation.
He was incredible last year.
Very nice of dd. And when Bogarts opts out you will still have sale to remember him. Bogarts has been great though. Went from being a fair deal to a steal.
Those Eovaldi and Sale deals though.
I don’t think Bogaerts can opt out.
No acuna or Albies mention? Or because in season?
Yessir. Article is specifically revisiting last off-season’s extensions.
I mean, the title of the article says “offseason’s biggest extensions”. It’s pretty clear that both contracts would make the cut otherwise.
Goldy needs a bat behind him there is not one in st Louis right now.
Trout shouldn’t of signed that deal,he got lowballed.
Huh, never seen this take before. Food for thought, really.
You reply to every comment, trying to sound witty? How edgy,Eh.
Wait which is it? Am I trying to sound witty or edgy? Need to know how darn mad I should be at you.
I can’t see how he got “lowballed” signing a contract extension while forgoing free agency. He had also already made plenty before signing. Trout had endless roads to choose from.
I believe Arenado had this planned all along. Get the Rockies to make him the highest paid position player ( which he was at the time of the signing ), then cry foul and want out when they don’t sign one or more of the top pitchers. Which of course he knows they can’t. On the open market he won’t get 35 a year or whatever he did get. Teams won’t give top dollar for Coors hitters. But the Rockies already took care of that problem for him.
He is a evil master mind!
Oh ok Bruce. Lol
If the’Stros have a bad season there will be those whose response will be “See?!” I might be one of them.
Juice?
I generally find the, “overpay for great”, line to be bs…but with Trout, he is literally a generational talent and that contract may not end up being an over payment because of his ridiculous talent, regardless; I understand the marketing there. I love baseball, and I really hope for his sake that the Angels get a team around him to compete. Even if they are bad and he doesn’t outplay his K, I don’t hate that signing.
BREGMAN FANS-Shoeless Joe’s world series stats didn’t support a lifetime ban………….yet here we are.