Uncertainty surrounding Nolan Arenado’s future with the Rockies has become one of the prevailing storylines of the offseason, given the perennial MVP candidate’s recent expression of discontent with the organization — general manager Jeff Bridich in particular. Recent drama notwithstanding, however, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes in his latest mailbag that a trade prior to spring training is “highly unlikely,” citing multiple sources.
Saunders notes (as others have suggested) that a summer trade of Arenado will become quite a bit more plausible if the Rockies don’t play well in the first half. Any trade involving Arenado, he adds, would need to center around an established Major Leaguer coming back to the Rockies in addition to multiple high-end prospects; owner Dick Monfort is not interested in simply clearing salary.
That line of thinking clashes with an afternoon report from ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers, who during a radio appearance on ESPN 1000 indicated that the Rockies and Cubs have at some point “discussed a one-for-one deal, Kris Bryant for Nolan Arenado,” with the Rockies absorbing substantial salary. Perhaps that’s a scenario to which the Cubs are amenable, but Rogers himself even made a point to later indicate he doesn’t expect a deal to come together and to stress (on Twitter) the distinction between something that’s “been discussed” and active trade talks.
Cubs fans have obviously taken a particular interest in that rumored exchange, but taking a step back and looking at the whole picture, it’s hard to imagine how such a deal would appeal to the Rockies or fit within the budgetary constraints under which both teams have been operating — let alone both. Even if the Rockies were to absorb the $7-8MM annually that Rogers suggests, the Cubs would still be adding $8-9MM to their luxury tax commitment.
Chicago already projects to be about $6.5MM north of the $208MM luxury barrier (per Roster Resource), so taking on that portion of that Arenado deal would push their luxury line into the $223MM range. That’s within striking distance of the $228MM point at which the second tier of penalization begins, which would leave the Cubs with minimal room for in-season additions. That could also become problematic if some of the non-roster players in camp earn spots on the MLB roster and start locking in the salaries on those deals. Players like Brandon Morrow ($1.25MM) and Hernan Perez ($1MM) will push that number north if they break camp with the team. And, of course, other players on the team have incentives in their contracts that can further elevate the number.
None of that sounds like much for the Cubs of years past, but they’ve been a much different team in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 offseasons. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma even reported back in December that the Cubs had interest in lefty reliever Alex Claudio but would’ve needed to clear some money to sign him, so he instead went to the Brewers on a one-year, $1.75MM deal. In total, the Cubs have signed off on $1.85MM in guaranteed salary to free agents this winter. Suddenly taking on Arenado and his nearly $34MM annual salary — even with the Rockies including cash — would be a radical about-face.
To this point, we’ve only looked at things from the Chicago organization’s point of view — but the Rockies obviously need to be considered as well. From their vantage point, the primary function of the rumored Bryant/Arenado swap would be salary relief — the very type of deal to which Monfort is opposed, per Saunders. Even if they sought to immediately reinvest some of those savings, the free-agent market has been mostly picked over. And looking purely at the optics, how should the Rockies plan to sell to their fan base that they’re paying Arenado $8MM annually to play elsewhere, with the return being a very good but lesser replacement at the hot corner?
The timing of Arenado’s comments and Bryant’s service-time resolution will surely link the two for the remainder of the offseason or until a transaction involving one of the two (likelier Bryant) takes place. A team interested in adding a potent bat to the lineup and/or improving at third base will explore trade scenarios involving both players, and it’s certainly possible that even the Cubs and Rockies themselves could explore a more layered swap involving multiple pieces. But the Rockies began the offseason by declaring a lack of payroll flexibility, and similar sentiments from the Cubs have been readily apparent since the onset of free agency. Drawing up a scenario that works financially for both parties without significantly worsening either roster is extremely difficult, and even that would assume that the Rockies are motivated to move Arenado — which Saunders stresses not to be the case.
Suffice it to say: there are innumerable intricacies involved when trying to draw up realistic trade scenarios involving players of this stature and this level of compensation. Both are likely to continue to circulate the rumor mill, but it’s immensely difficult to envision both changing hands in the same transaction.
southside2020
Do the cubs have the prospect capital to cover the trade? Or would they move another player for prospects and shift some of those with Bryant into a deal with Arenado?
averagejoe15
Bryant has more trade value than Arenado. Arenado is on a market rate contract.
Bryant is making less than his market value this year and likely next, assuming even a repeat of last year’s performance.
Ejemp2006
Arenado is going to the Yankees for Stanton and Andujar. You heard it here first.
DODGERS1988-?
LoL your funny
Ejemp2006
Funny like a fox. The Yankees are in win now mode because they just had their first ever decade long WS appearance drought. The Rox need a good news story. Arenado pushes the Yankees over the top. Stanton mashes 70 dingers and Andujar holds down 3B in Colorado. Everyone wins. Especially us fans.
bsakfl
Yes because that makes so much sense. Stanton has to prove he is healthy.. but I get how a Yankee fan’s mind works and cannot look at the whole picture.
Mikel Grady
Yankees never won Word Series in 1980’s. Won 1978 then 1996
Flapjax55
That’s pretty interesting.
dixoncayne
At least Stanton doesn’t make a lot of dough
bsakfl
Doesn’t make a lot of dough? $25m is more than Nolan’s contract calls for… it is just a shorter deal, but in the NL Stanton is useless 1/2 the time if he is even healthy.
30 Parks
Stanton is overrated. He doesn’t have the mental makeup to compete year-after-year.
sevans36
No, it has been posted on several other threads.
brucenewton
You need fleet-footed outfielders at Coors. No DH’s in the outfield. The Rockies aren’t trading Arenado and taking on more salary. Crazy. Stanton has a no trade anyway, not that Colorado would touch him.
Phanatic 2022
Please no
heater
Article said it was a one for one discussion.
Le Grande Orangerie
You think the Cubs would trade Bryant even up for an albatross contract? How about they don’t get Arenado and just trade Bryant for a debt of a quarter billion $. That would be only mildly more insane.
gojira15
Bryant for Arenado would be an embarrassment of a trade for Colorado.
FreddyG520
Rockies went in over their heads signing Arenado to a $230M+ contract. Plus they haven’t built around him at all and he clearly wants to win. It might seem like a bit of bad optics to Rockies fans, but they’d still get a former all-star/MVP 3B in return. And they could ultimately flip Bryant within the next 2 years for blue-chip prospects. So the end result would be clearing $200M + top prospects? Thats not embarrassing for Colorado.
bballblk
But that’s the whole point. Why would you sign your superstar to a mega-extension, only to turn around and trade him an offseason later for a (likely) lesser player who makes around the same salary that pre-extension Arenado would’ve?
DODGERS1988-?
Because Trevor Story put it all together in 2019. Plus every attempt at adding around Arenado failed. Rockies spent alot of money (for them) on the bullpen, Daniel Murphy, and Ian Desmond and it all failed. I’d love for the Dodgers to make a deal for Arenado, but that will never happen. Imagine him wearing Dodger blue in Colorado 18 times a year.☹
Le Grande Orangerie
Because it’s a ridiculous contract. If you can find a sucker who’ll take on that contract you unload it first chance you get. For nothing if necessary..
gojira15
Mike Trout has a ridiculous contract. Cole. Harper. Guys like that. Elite players get elite money, and only a cheap team needs to unload such a deal to compete (Marlins selling Stanton for peanuts).
Teams who can absorb the contracts for elite players should do so. The Angels and Rox have simply done poor jobs building around their star players. Dodgers succeed with Kershaw’s deal. Astros have a lot of money in Altuve and Verlander. Cubs won despite Heyward.
Arnold Ziffel
The Arenado contract is not the problem. It is the Bridich signings of Desmond, Murphy, Shaw, McGee, and Davis signings, all of them terrible. They cannot move any of these has beens. The Arenado signing is the only good one.
JackStrawb
@Arnold Ziffel – Solid point. Arenado’s a 6 win player under 30, who still has a little upside. His defense has slipped a little, but for Arenado it means he’s merely great rather than consistently spectacular.
Wins in FA have gotten a little cheaper this offseason, but they’re still priced at over 8m each, and Arenado projects to be worth about 27 wins over the life of his contract. He also hits and fields well enough to make it reasonable to believe that at the end of the contract he’ll still be worth a lineup spot as a 2-3 win player at 1B as a 34-35 year old.
Like you said, it’s not Arenado who is the Rockies’ problem.
chesteraarthur
You expect him to keep ~120-130wRc+ at 34-35? I would not, but to each their own.
rememberthecoop
Hell, I don’t expect even one more season of that kind of production if he doesnt play half his games at Coors.
jbigz12
Bryant for Arenado makes absolutely zero sense for either sides. That’s the kind of proposal a casual fan who knows of both players comes up with. Pretty ridiculous rumor.
southbeachbully
@jbigz12
The trade actually makes a lot of sense for both side. The Cubs might be willing to move Brant if they feel he’s going to walk as a FA. The Rockies get a shorter term deal for an all-star caliber player. I think it sucks they signed him to that deal and then looked to trade him tho.
jbigz12
They’ve done enough to convince you with this clickbait but that’s all that rumor Is. Colorado is a 75 win team. Likely 4th in that division. Deal makes absolutely no sense. The Cubs are not going to pay Arenado and potentially have to let Baez walk due to that commitment. Not only that but Bryant has more trade value due to the short term contract. So really what you’re saying is that Colorado is going to deal Arenado and a prospect for Bryant.
Does not make sense. I’m confident they’ll go for young major leaguers and prospects if/when either one is traded. That’s what makes sense.
Good Guys
Agreed, makes no sense whatsoever and will never happen. Just something for fans to talk and get excited about. The Rockies tried to spend money in free agency and it didn’t work. They are now looking to to retool/rebuild and would want prospects in return. The Cubs are past or near the competitive balance threshold and are therefore looking to reduce payroll so adding Arenado’s salary would not make sense. Also the Cubs should be looking to add prospects and build their farm system back up to avoid another lengthy rebuild of their own.
andrewgauldin
Bryant has more trade value than Arenado. So if the Rockies pull that off without any retained salary, that’s a huge win.
JackStrawb
@andrewgauldin Presumably the Rockies have to send along prospects–the real question might be, who? Say you estimate Bryant has 40m in surplus value and Arenado has 0m. The Rockies package two solid prospects who they agree to value at 20m each (or something in that range), and you have a fit.
I think they could get that done–both sides, though, would have to be reasonable in their expectation. It’s hard to know what Bridich is thinking–is he pretending Arenado, without the Rockies picking up any salary, is actually worth an MLB regular plus multiple good prospects, just for public consumption, or does he not understand how value is created on the field?
Given his track record, it’s hard to answer that intelligently.
desertbull
You are not very bright
Chubbies
Contreras and Bryant for arenado
bronyaur
Uh, no.
Good Guys
More like Arenado, Story, Gray, and Rodgers for Bryant.
DodgerNation
I know this is about as likely as pigs flying but I have always thought Arenado being in Dodger blue would be a perfect fit. He plays great defense (which the Dodgers love) and brings a superstar bat/pedigree to the team. But I guess I’ll have to dream on because no way they trade him within the division and the Dodgers wouldn’t pay that kind of money either..
dugdog83
What would be your realistic return?
chesteraarthur
If they love defense, why did They let Turner get like 2500 innings there? It seems they’re actually pretty indifferent
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld…
Vin Scully
Stupid trade idea.
phillyballers
Scenarios to consider: A) Opts out after 2 years bc he is still MVP level. B) Opts in but still producing at MVP level. C) Opts in and is underperforming or is a dumpster fire. I think C is the most likely scenario. But given that, and the dollar figure, not a lot of teams are going to give premium prospects. You’re looking at high ceiling risk guys similar to DBacks trade or several mid-level guys, but only maybe 1 Top-100 overall. Rockies probably do not eat much of the deal, otherwise you’d expect better prospects.
jonnyzuck
The return depends almost entirely on how much money the Rockies eat, when you factor in the opt out and the contract that rendon just got (similar talent level at the same position). I think arenado has pretty close to 0 trade value with his full contract so I think the Rockies can expect a pretty much equal value in prospects to the amount of money they pay down.
JackStrawb
The talk has always been that an acquiring team would want that waiver bought out, otherwise the difference in trading price is just too large for either side to agree.
Still, maybe that’s Colorado’s ought for a trivial return on Arenado, since they seem increasingly desperate just to unload his salary. “With the opt-out no team was willing to give us what we wanted for Nolan, so we had to trade him for LA’s #32 prospect.”
Which of course gets Arenado booed forever in Mile High. So who knows?
JohhnyBets67
I don’t know why teams really want that option bought out. I wouldn’t want Arenado for that entire contract. Please leave after 2 years. Not likely that you’re going to get surplus value on the next 5. Arenado would have substantially more value if his deal was 2/66.5.
Mikel Grady
Can’t trade prospects in baseball . Have to stay on team one year.
Payne Train
Stop beating this dead horse – everyone knows that this trade would be tough …. it’s pretty obvious
JackStrawb
“Any trade involving Arenado, he adds, would need to center around an established Major Leaguer coming back to the Rockies in addition to multiple high-end prospects;…”
Beyond ludicrous.
Arenado might be worth his 7/234m deal, and let’s say he has a respectable chance of that. What he’s NOT worth is 33.5m a season AND the value of an established Major Leaguer AND the value of multiple high-end prospects.
What any GM is trading for is the right to pay Arenado 234 million dollars. There isn’t so much surplus value in his contract that you’d jump to pay a substantial price for that right rather than signing a free agent for just money, or at worst just money plus the QO pick.
Keep dreaming, though, Colorado GM. Keep dreaming. Until you keep sending those checks, month after month after month…
emac22
I’ll never get why surplus value is such a difficult concept for so many people.
JackStrawb
@emac Same here, though I’ve been able to identify two very specific kinds of responses:
1) Oldtimer rage.
Surplus value estimates often use some of the more advanced stats to calculate, and they respond as if something has been taken from them–which I suppose it has been, namely all the times they’ve evaluated players largely or wholly by BA, HR, RBI… The implication they draw is that you’re telling them their time has been wasted.
2) Not-very-smart people’s rage.
They just can’t crunch the numbers. It’s too complicated for them, and they get upset. They at least intuit they’re just not smart enough to figure out things like surplus value, and it makes them angry at what they perceive to be the source of their discomfort.
I think in general we underestimate the problems caused by people who just aren’t very bright.
hiflew
Man I can wait for the current 20-something generation to become 40. Your kids will think you are dumb too. And your entire way of thinking will be discarded as something that went the way of the telegraph as well. Maybe I can chuckle from the porch of my retirement home.
JackStrawb
@hiflew — and then there’s the third category: Oldtimer rage combined with not-very-smart people’s rage. This group doesn’t even understand basic statements and that those statements are plain observations, not endorsements.
These people can’t understand for example that the statement “all men must die” does not mean “all men deserve to die.”
They’re fundamentally unable to have a meaningful discussion on any issue at all. They just lack the… wattage, and careen from discontent to discontent, imagining the world is against them, somehow. It’s too bad. The world’s a beautiful place, often enough, and it’s always fascinating.
Samuel
@ JackStrawb
Feel better? Superior?
One of the most arrogant, age racist., ignorant, and insulting things I’ve ever read here.
I’ve seen no comments on here at all that dismiss surplus value. It’s a measurement along with a couple of hundred others. So?
I find it interesting. But it brings to mind the disclaimer that every financial organization selling their technical expertise notes at the bottom of their ads – “Past performance is no guarantee of future results”. This is to protect them from liability lawsuits.
Sometimes older people do not latch onto new wave computations (with more being developed every month) because they’ve been around long enough to see how these projections wind up being so wrong. We are now at the time of the year where we’re given projections on players stats for 2020. By mid-May at least 50% of those will be blown sky-high, as they are every year. As for “surplus value”, lets take 2 recent cases whose figures have been radically adjusted the past year or so – Chris Sale and David Price. Point being that “surplus value” is great to discuss in the offseason, but once the season starts those values change quite a bit for the majority of major league players.
Speaking for myself, I think Arenado is a true quality, superstar player, and if he stays healthy should be a HOF candidate. As for Bryant, he’s a nice power hitter. Nevertheless, Arenado is a risk as one does not know if he turns into a Stanton or a Ellsbury over an extended period. Bryant can hit for 2 years and then Scott Boras will find a sucker/desperate owner like Middleton or Moreno that could care less about any stats that don’t flash a bright green, and will outbid the market to get what he and his fans think will magically turn his team around.
JackStrawb
@Samuel Got you covered, Samuel:
–“These people can’t understand for example that the statement “all men must die” does not mean “all men deserve to die.” *
See, observing what oldtimers do, is not a smear of the elderly. It’s a fact-based observation.
Just one thing: “age racist”? Who taught you that one? It’s a fundamentally irrational cheap shot meant to tie in this case imagined prejudice against old people, to racism, an ugly thing,
The word you were looking for, if such occurred, is “ageism,” and you even got that wrong, since ageism is the assailing of the elderly *because* they’re elderly, whereas my use of “oldtimer” was a descriptor, only, of–and this is important, so pay attention–the length of time over which *some* people have watched the game.
You’ve also violated the Terms of Service of this website, just so you know.
Samuel
Oh, “ageism”. Gee, I got the lingo wrong. What used to be called “prejudice” is now call “racism”. You are prejudiced towards old people, as you slam anyone that does not agree with what you think is right. I was a civil rights marcher, activist, advocate, and got beat up for it. Now life-sheltered kids like you think I’m a white supremacist because I’ve always believed in equal opportunity, and not special considerations.
As per usual, you did a form of name calling as opposed to responding to what I wrote.
“You’ve also violated the Terms of Service of this website, just so you know.”
Look in the mirror.
Out.
JackStrawb
@Samuel In a word, shhh.
“Welcome to the MLBTR commenting community! There are just a few things you’ll want to avoid when leaving a comment here:
Attacks or insults toward other commenters, the post author, journalists, teams, players, or agents
Otherwise harassing other commenters in any way
Juvenile comments or extensive use of text message-type spelling”
Thanks.
mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/commenting-policy-20.ht…
.
chesteraarthur
Did you just say age racist? Hahah
Only ignorant people conflate all prejudice with racism. Hurry back to your safe space.
Lovinmlb
Let’s get some Bryant and Mookie trade rumors going. Nolan ain’t going nowhere. A lot of contenders need a 3b upgrade yet he hasn’t been traded. Rookies need new management. The same reason why free agent pitchers won’t sign up to go there for a fair contract is the same reason they can’t trade their position players. I love Nolan, great player, but his contract and their asking price for him is ignoring his non Coors stats. Only fear teams have about him having a opt out is that he won’t use it.
Lovinmlb
Let’s get some Bryant and Mookie trade rumors going. Nolan ain’t going nowhere. A lot of contenders need a 3b upgrade yet he hasn’t been traded. Rookies need new management. The same reason why free agent pitchers won’t sign up to go there for a fair contract is the same reason they can’t trade their position players. I love Nolan, great player, but his contract and their asking price for him is ignoring his non Coors stats. Only fear teams have about him having a opt out is that he won’t use it.
Mikel Grady
Lovinmlb you got it . Bryant to dodgers for May and ruiz, gonsolin or gray
Bryant and Contreras for May, lux or verdugo and Ruiz gonsolin or gray
Bryant to padres for gore or patino and Edwards
Bryant to Nats for Robles and keieboom
rememberthecoop
Trade proposals are only fun if they are at least semi-nased on reality. Dodgers already said they won’t move Lux and the Cubs have already been told that the Nats won’t give up Robles. But here’s one: Bryant to Braves for Riley, Waters and Ian Andersen or Wright. Done deal.
TheDP
That would be a very hard pass…I would not trade 6 or 7 years of Wright or Andersen straight up for 2 years of Bryant.
Wright is going to be a long tie star for the Braves next to Acuna and Pache and Anderen and Soroka are going 1 -2 on the hill all the way to 2026.
Bryant would be long gone while Waters mans the outfield and IA take the ball every 5 days for years to come.
Mikel Grady
Rememberthecoop. Dodgers traded quality prospects for rentals. Machado and Darvish and came up empty . They wouldn’t trade for 2 years of Bryant who ranks top 20 in mlb and Contreras who is top 5 catcher making peanuts and arb eligible through 2022 for unproven players ?
brandons-3
The Rockies really backed themselves into a corner with that contract. I guess it bought them goodwill with fans, but they managed to make Arenado both expensive long/term and a short-term flight risk PLUS he went public with his unhappiness.
Combined with some other poor investments and on-field regression, changes could be soon afoot in Denver
JackStrawb
@Brandon Sans – Colorado GM Jeff Bridich is the only competition Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen has for ‘Worst GM in MLB.’
Incredibly, Van Wagenen did the least he could do this offseason. He added:
–the worst qualifying starter by ERA in MLB.
–a 5th OFer.
–a reliever who had one start last season and whose health and recovery are unknown.
–to the bullpen a swingman, whose ERA last year was 4.76 and whose FIP was 5.61
Van Wagenen also made a team older than the MLB average last season even older. He added no one with promise to the minor league system. Impressive, in its way.
brandons-3
@JackStrawb – It’s unfortunate because it seemed Colorado was on the cusp of something special a few years ago. Bad decisions sunk that quick.
As for the Met, they’re MLB’s version of a late NBA Lottery team. Mediocre.
crazylarry
Wrong Preller in San Diego and Epller in Anaheim are by far the worst GM’s. Preller can’t decide if he wants to build up or acquire a major leaguer. Also what happened to “ all those prospects” that have since been shipped out? Epller he is just a joke. He should win the MVP for signing washed out rag arm pitchers who elsewhere wouldn’t bring 2 cents to what he is paying.
JackStrawb
@Brandon Sans — Agreed, and I think the Mets were also on the cusp of something very special going into the 2019 season. They had the frontline talent to contend, as evinced by the 12 players on the roster who in 2019 would contribute 40 WAR.
That alone was enough to win close to 90 games, yet the Mets wound up winning 86 because they hired Jeff’s golfing buddy instead of a real GM capable of building a team good enough to support rather than subtract from that frontline talent.
The Mets put 40 players on the field in 2019 in addition to their 12 top contributors. The worst of that group had a significantly negative WAR, costing them around 7 wins. Good GMs find replacement level players at the back end of the roster, but Van Wagenen didn’t know enough to do that, and didn’t know enough to find scouts and advisors who could do that for him.
Good GMs ensure that the negative contributors are taken off the field early, before they can do too much damage, but Van Wagenen didn’t know to do that, either. Such a pity, and such a waste given that on average the Mets had more good luck than bad. Good health, generally. Great health in the rotation, where they had no depth. A Cy award. A ROY award. McNeil contended for the batting title and hit 23 HR. In general they overperformed.
And it happened again this offseason. I listed in this thread who Van Wagenen added, and it’s nowhere near enough. The Mets lost a #2 starter, a #5 starter, and a starting 3Bman, but didn’t even replace those players sufficiently, let alone improve the team. What a waste.
Samuel
Son,
MLB is not computer baseball. very few players produce the same year after year. That’s why individual WARS vacillate for most players.
See, MLB is a sport played on a field. It’s competitive. Players on one team are trying to do something, and players on the other team, are trying to limit what they will do. It changes every year, every week, every game, and every pitch.
That’s why people that played the sport and love and respect the game, watch it.
JackStrawb
Boy. In any case, at least it has amusement value, watching someone defend ignorance and behaving in general like a 6 year old who had the ice cream cone slapped out of her hand.
Despite what you imagine, despite what you want to invent here, no one has taken anything from you. If this exchange can have any educational value at all, it should be to teach you that it’s always the person with the least to offer who begins and ends with personal attacks, delusions of persecution, and always–always–the endless fount of self-righteous indignation.
jbigz12
Lmao
mlbtraderumors.com/2018/12/reaction-analysis-the-r…
You struck a nerve with Samuel by calling out the Mets. He loves that “rockstar” BVW for whatever reason. That Robbie Cano trade SURE was a steal.
Those darn prospects mostly all fizzle out! That’s my favorite “ guy who watches so many games” line. Easier to not take the time and get any legitimate info on the prospect and compliment the team making big stupid splashes for 36 year olds.
rondon
There’s a good dose of self righteousness in your comment as well.
Arnold Ziffel
No, Bridich backed them into a corner signing has beens like Desmond, Murphy, Shaw and Davis. They can’t move any of these clowns thus forcing them to possibly move the only good signing the moron Bridich did.
emac22
The fact that the cubs aren’t a good trade match is a really bad reason to claim that it won’t be easy to trade Arenado.
The Human Toilet
Chatwood and Bryant for Arenado. Salaries offset each other in 2020 and Rockies get a pitcher who had a solid overall season last year and if struggles in 2020, no worries becomes of the payroll and also get Kris Bryant for 2 years and will produce big numbers like Arenado in Coors as well. If Rockies crumble lm then you can flip Bryant again to get some high end prospects and can start the rebuild process and be totally out on the Arenado deal.
Cubs get a long term commitment on a core player they desperately need without really downgrading and adding Additional salary to the luxury tax.
Overall works for both teams, but if they demand prospects too then screw it. Cubs are doing the Rockies a favor and in a way bailing them out of that contract because it obviously handcuff then this offseason.
PEDs
Id say Cubs even throw in Amaya , a catcher that the Rockies have been searching for.. So Amaya/Chatwood/Bryant for Arenado ,,, pretty fair deal all around
megaj
I would rather Quintana instead of Chatwood, because Chatwood has way higher upside.
PEDs
Chatwood 13 mil
Q 10.5 mil
Cubs owner seems to need to be under the lux tax.. So chatwoods extra 2.5 helps get them there …
rememberthecoop
Upside? What?
rondon
The problem with that is that it does nothing to solve the Cub’s most glaring need- Young, controllable starting pitching.
Mikel Grady
Rondon agreed. With Lester Quintana gone next year only Hendricks and Darvish are inked starters . Can’t fill 3 spots with high priced free agents. I like alzolay and Marquez but alzolay can’t stay healthy . Padres and dodgers provide best solution to ace ready youth
PEDs
Solves a long term 3rd baseman… Not to long ago cubs offered Bryant an extension at 200 mil didnt they?? Well there’s where Arenado comes in, already extended, yes he has an opt out in that deal but if they can get that taken care of then I dont see the difference between trying to extend Bryant just last yr or trading Bryant for a long term better 3rd baseman…. So thats why it makes sense… And cubs could still move Contreras for young pitchers (Rays need a catcher and have Honeywell, Baz, McClanahan.. Plus could fill cubs lead off situation with Brujan Or Edwards being in that trade)
Theghostoftycobb
Bryant in Colorado would put up insane numbers. Flip him at the deadline and get out from Arenados contract. Sorry, but giving 250+ million to one player is a no win proposition to a small market team like the Rockies, ala greinke to the snakes.
Colorado was damned jf they signed arenado and damned if they didn’t.
brandons-3
They damned themselves. Certainly they didn’t do a good enough job maximizing their window with him. Good organizations (aka GMs that keep their jobs) foresee their future before media and fans.
How did Bridich not realize a year ago that there was a possibility the Rockies may need to shed salary and restock the farm?
1. Teams give little prospect value when they trade for nine-figure contracts
2. Teams don’t pay premiums on short-term acquisitions.
Arenado deserves every penny of the money owed to him, but the timing and structure makes it one of the worst deals a GM has agreed to in a while. Not to mention that they managed to publicly piss Arenado off.
Ricky Adams
Am I the only one that is reminded of the rangers/arod deal, when looking at arenado? Team gave a player more than what was their comfort zone, then realize they dont have the players to surround around him to warrant the cost and want out from under it. And that opt out no trade clause kinda shot themselves in the foot.
brandons-3
It’s such a bad deal for the Rockies. The kind of deal that’s so good for a player of Arenado’s caliber that they have to accept. He guaranteed himself over $250 million PLUS the opportunity to make even more than that if he wants.
JackStrawb
@Brandon Sans – Right? The opt-out always seems a little nebulous and difficult to evaluate when the player is already making top dollar. But then, in just a few years, the price of premium players breaks through the roof that was around $25m for everyone not named Alex Rodrigeuz, and suddenly Strasburg can ask for and get 7 years despite his age and history.
At 31 will Arenado really be able to opt out of what will be around 5/$167m? I wouldn’t bet on it, but in two years if I’m LA I wouldn’t want to be looking down the barrel of that gun, either, if he puts up two consecutive 7 win seasons.
imindless
Could you imagine bryant in coors. One word. Wow.
ForestCobraAL
Did I actually read “summer trade of Arenado”?
Talk about “jumping the shark”.
Jerome Walton's wallet
How about:
Braves get Bryant
Cubs get Arenado and Drew Waters
Rockies get Austin Riley,Kyle Wright, Tyson Miller, David Bote, and Vic Caritini or Miguel Amaya (Rockies choice of catcher)
shorttracknews
Cubs need to shed more salary to make any kind of trade happen. I saw above and a few other places that Chatwood would need to be included to offset some salary to keep the Cubs under the tax
Jerome Walton's wallet
Jesse Rodgers suggested the Rockies picking up $7 million or so pernyear of Arenado’s contract. If they pick up more like $12 million in the first year and less on the last year or two, Vuns get under the luxury tax this year.
rememberthecoop
Are you sure about that? My understanding is the luxury tax is based on the AAV value of the contract, which doesn’t change no matter how much money is thrown in by Colorado. So, from a tax perspective, the hit would be the same, unless I am mistaken.
megaj
Quintana can easily be dealt to shave another 11M
JohhnyBets67
ATL gives up Wright, Waters, and Riley for Bryant?
That feels too steep. Tyson Miller is a non prospect so I’m assuming you’re a Cubs fan.
megaj
Only Waters has any real promise of those three, so it is a fair trade. Personally, I wouldn’t deal Bryant if Anderson or Fried wasn’t in the trade.
JohhnyBets67
Austin Riley loses all prospect steam after slumping at age 22 in the big leagues.
Sigh.
dschap02
Phillies should build a package around Bohm to get Arenado.
JohhnyBets67
Bohm alone is a more than fair price to pay for Arenado’s entire deal.
brucenewton
Bryant would crush Arenado’s numbers at Coors.
Internal options
Not a chance,
mikefetters
I like the thought, but Arenado has about zero value in a trade. That trade might work if the Cubs get one of the guys in the Rockies list, and hang onto Bote and Caratini. Maybe the Rockies get Riley and Cubs pay Arenados entire salary alongnwith getting Waters and Wright.
Definitely a good start to a 3 team deal.
Donkatsu
Arenado has a no trade clause in his contract. He wants to play for a contender. The Cubs are not contending with all the pitching they lost.
megaj
I know its just a stupid rumor, but if true this quite possibly would be the opening day roster:
Happ CF
Baez SS
Rizzo 1B
Arenado 3B
Schwarber LF
Contreras C
Heyward RF
Gennet/Hoerner 2B
Darvish P
Bench
Almora
Caratini
Souza
Bote
The most complete lineup/bench in all of MLB?
rondon
It doesn’t solve what the Cubs really need- Young, controllable starter(s)
Cubby777
I don’t see the point of this trade. Mostly it seems to be wishful thinking at best for some writer. If the Cubs trade Bryant, it would be to clear money for AAA prospects with several years of control and ready for MLB in 21. They might get one MLB ready talent, but mostly it would be for setting the team up for the future. Theo isn’t going to ship Bryant for Bryant. That is completely counterproductive. No, he will ship Bryant for young arms, insert Bote at 3rd, and when lester and Q go, he can move the hopefuls from AAA up. Anything short of that makes zero sense.
exile
People keep on raving about the offensive numbers Bryant would put up at Coors don’t take into consideration both guys put up similar road numbers last season.
Bryant hit .282, 16 HR, 131 OPS+
Arenado hit .277, 20 HR, 129 OPS+
Nolan is also one of the best defensive third baseman of all time while Bryant is a medicore fielder.
James1955
The trade doesn’t make sense for the Rockies. The Rockies can do a lot better than the Cubs offer. The article said the Rockies would pay a substantial part off Arenado’s contract.
StL Busker
This whole Nolan Arenado being traded to Here, There, and Everywhere all started with the frustration of the Colorado front office having a fairly significant payroll, but having very little to show for it. There are a couple of other factors that come into play, such as, 2 minor league infielders ready to be promoted to The Show, but are blocked by Arenado at third, and both minor leaguers are basically forced to play the same position, 2nd base, which complicates the matter even more. In the end, everyone in the Colorado front office has been told to just simply keep their mouths shut, when it comes to the Arenado situation, regardless of how much frustration they feel, over the lack of success that the team as a whole, has produced. I feel that the biggest problem that the Rockies are faced with, is their starting rotation, or lack of one, for better words, and the amount of ridiculous money that they have allotted to their bullpen, while getting little or no results in the end. Now this is not to say that a deal for Arenado hasn’t been talked about, but the team that he’s traded to, will have to pony up, a huge package, and even the teams that can offer that, is going to be hard pressed to do so. The Cubs don’t have anything close to offering Colorado what they are asking for, unless you start with Rizzo & Bryant and…. Do you see what I’m getting at? Feelings have been hurt with these rumors, but that’s all in a days work, when it comes to major league teams that have a significant amount if payroll tied up in only 5 or 6 players, yet at the end of the season, they’ve delivered a less than spectacular showing for those monetary spendings!
Mikel Grady
Stl busker Rizzo Bryant and ??? Come on you are a Cub hater but wow.
JaysForDays
Toronto a dark horse here? While OF and pitching more of a need, it’s not hard to see Vlad jr moved to 1st with Arenado at 3rd. And his contract would be expiring about the time the Jays would have to pay their trio of young stars, so payroll lines up. And finally, there’s a ton of talent in the Jays farm system (without Pearson being included).
They’ve made some big moves for 3rd base before… time for another one to shock the league??
its_happening
Nah. Jays aren’t giving up young players and Colorado does not want OFs since they are overloaded with outfielders right now. For this to work there would have to be a 3rd team willing to take Tellez, an OF (Grichuk, because of $$$), and Thornton just to start the conversation. Don’t see it happening.
jimmybcool
I just love all these Arenado threads. And comments thinking of the right trade offers. And not realizing that since he comes along with a $35 mil a year price tag HE HAS NO EXCESS VALUE and certainly doesn’t justify a top 100 prospect in return PLUS major league help now. Rockies are a joke if they think they’ll get it. Which is why he is still a Rookie and will be unless they change their opinion of his value.
Internal options
Rockies gm I is a dunce. Cards supposedly made good offer. He seems to think 35 is chump change idiot
its_happening
Cubs would have to throw Chatwood into the trade to offset the cash in 2020. Automatically this trade does not happen. If the Cubs are dealing Bryant they are looking for a larger need (CF, pitching).
Colorado should hold Arenado and attempt to deal the not-so-bad contracts like Dahl, McMahon, see if there’s interest for Murphy and the relievers. Soft sell, see if there’s a bounceback in 2021.
carlos15
They shouldn’t even have a team in Colorado when no pitcher no matter how good, can go there and throw to an ERA below 5.
captkrunch
Arenado for Happ.
brucenewton
Better be some sweet prospects coming to the Cubs for them to take on Arenado’s contract. I don’t see this deal happening at all.
Internal options
Silly talk, no way Bryant for Arenado happens
JoeBrady
I’d much rather have Bryant, and it is not even close.
FG projects Arenado to only a 0.2 WAR better, and that is not close to the difference in salary. After two years, Bryant sill gets a QO, while the Arenado owner is stuck with $164M/5 in his declining years.
It’s about a -0- chance of happening.
JoeBrady
“Any trade involving Arenado, he adds, would need to center around an established Major Leaguer coming back to the Rockies in addition to multiple high-end prospects;”
“Kris Bryant for Nolan Arenado,” with the Rockies absorbing substantial salary. ”
The writer should know both of these cannot simultaneously be true. Statement #1 assumes that, at $234M/7, that Arenado is a fantastic bargain that requires a MLB player + multiple high-end prospects.
Statement #2 assumes that Arenado is seriously over-priced.
uncle mike
The writer was smart to leave the Cardinals out of any conversations concerning trade talks to acquire Arenaldo. Cardinals ownership has the don’t care attitude about improvement for 2020 & 2021 seasons. That’s when a load of Bad Contracts come off the books. Cardinals owners hav on the 2022 season in their eyesight for improvements.
Mikel Grady
Unfortunately for them the big blue train the Cubs will be shed if a lot of contracts as well. Tv money will send them to the moon with money to burn
BobbyJohn
Additional data points added to the “Jeff Bridich has no business running the Rockies” calc.
bigbadjohnny
Arenado for Bryant is not happening…….Theo wants to reduce payroll….not add on to it !
A'sfaninLondonUK
No-one has mentioned Arenado’s 2021 opt out. I’m guessing that following his comments that the Rox FO are assuming he’ll walk at the end of next season. So if they can lose that contract and get something for him now, with two years of “control”? And pass the perceived albatross off elsewhere? Like I say – just guessing….
BobbyJohn
I think the only reason this ever came up is because Bryant can also be a free agent at the end of 2021.
Internal options
Rox need SP cubbies have none, enough already.
ASapsFables
I was proposing the possibility of a blockbuster trade involving the Cubs and Rockies earlier this offseason. I had a scenario where 3B’s Kris Bryant & Nolan Arenado could be involved once the former’s arbitration grievance was settled which just occurred. I also proposed an expanded blockbuster with the likes of RF’s Jason Heyward & Charlie Blackmon swapping teams along with former Cub closer Wade Davis & former Rockie SP Tyler Chatwood also being involved in a mega deal.
Both teams are at or nearing the point where their window for reaching the postseason is closing. Each could prolong that with a major shakeup involving players who either want out or could benefit from a change of scenery. The money here with all these players would be relatively close.
As for the two right-fielders, each are playing under substantial contracts that don’t line up with their current production. Heyward is still just 30-years old and 3 years younger than Blackmon. Heyward would be a much better fit with his Gold Glove defense in the vast outfield dimensions of Coors Field. Heyward would also likely benefit with an offensive spike as most every player does in Colorado, perhaps even returning to the numbers he amassed in Atlanta and St.Louis before bottoming out with the Cubs after signing that 8 yrs / $184MM free agent contract in time for the Cubs 2016 championship season. Blackmon signed a 6 yrs / $108MM contract extension back in April of 2018 that includes two player options in those last two years, 2022 and 2023. Those years line up with the final ones of Heyward’s contract when Blackmon will be 36 compared to the latter’s 33 year old age. Blackmon began his career in Colorado in CF and moved to RF as he aged and lost a step. He would be a better fit defensively in Wrigley Field and might even be adequate back in CF which has MLB’s smallest area to cover. More importantly, Blackmon could fill the Cubs leadoff role that has been a black hole since the departure of Dexter Fowler following their World Series title.
Davis joined the Cubs in 2017 from the Royals in a trade that sent young slugger Jorge Soler to Kansas City. Davis became the Cubs closer and was outstanding after the Cubs decided to pass on their own 2016 rental acquisition Aroldis Chapman who became a FA after the Cubs World Series championship. Davis turned out to be a one-year rental himself when the Rockies signed him to a 3 yrs/$52MM FA contract the following offseason which also has a $15MM mutual option in 2021. Davis was decent in his first season as the Rockies 2018 closer with an NL leading 43 saves, one that also included 6 blown saves as he wilted down the stretch. He only blew one save with the Cubs the previous season. Davis was awful last season when he was injured and also lost his closing job. As for Chatwood, he also pitched much better as a Rockies starter than he did after joining the Cubs as a free agent the same offseason that Davis signed with Colorado. Chatwood also signed a 3 year FA contract with a total value of 38MM that has no options and expires following the upcoming season. As for age, Davis is 34 which not necessarily old for a relief pitcher. Chatwood is 30.
The Rockies would gain some youth with a blockbuster involving Bryant, Heyward and Chatwood. Colorado would also get a huge defensive boost in RF and add a 30-year old starter who had success pitching in Coors Field back in 2016 and 2017. The Cubs benefit by solving their leadoff dilemma with a player who still possesses a solid bat and high OBP but won’t steal the high number of bases he once did earlier in his career. They also badly need to restock a bullpen that has seen a mass exodus in free agency this past offseason. Davis would be a risk but probably not any worse than the gamble they took on 31-year old FA Craig Kimbrel last summer. The upside of having two former dominant closers at the back end of their 2020 bullpen just might be worth an additional gamble with a starting rotation that still has some quality names but isn’t getting younger with Jon Lester and Jose Quintana holding two of those rotation spots.