The White Sox recently made their latest bold move in a winter full of them, signing center fielder Luis Robert to a six-year, $50MM extension last week. Although the 22-year-old Robert has never played above the Triple-A level, setting his price for the foreseeable future came off as a worthwhile risk by the White Sox. Those types of gambles have become a trend for the club, which took the same approach before last season in inking left fielder Eloy Jimenez to a six-year, $43MM guarantee. Because Chicago was no longer concerned about Jimenez’s service time after extending him, he predictably cracked its Opening-Day roster. As expected, Jimenez went on to further establish himself as an integral long-term building block for the White Sox.
The team no doubt expects Robert to follow Jimenez’s lead this year in cementing himself as a foundational piece. Odds are that Robert, like Jimenez last year, will get a chance to do so from Day 1 of the season. Assuming that’s the case, he’ll take over for the White Sox’s most common center fielders from 2019 – Leury Garcia and Adam Engel – as their primary option. Garcia and Engel combined for a a passable 2.1 fWAR last season, though they didn’t offer much at the plate, totaling an unimposing .269/.308/.379 batting line with 14 home runs and 18 stolen bases.
Considering Robert has no experience in the majors, there’s no guarantee he’ll outproduce Garcia and Engel in his first taste of the majors. On the other hand, as en elite prospect (MLB.com ranks him third in the game) who has run roughshod over high-minors pitching, Robert’s a legitimate candidate to begin his career with a flourish. Robert hadn’t played above High-A ball until last season, when he destroyed Double-A (.314/.362/.518 in 244 plate appearances) en route to a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte. There was no shortage of offense in the International League, but the .297/.341/.634 slash Robert registered in 223 attempts was still 36 percent better than the league’s average hitter, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric.
It’s too much to ask for Robert to hit that well in the majors this season, of course. Nevertheless, projections on his rookie season are bullish. For instance, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS system calls for 2.3 fWAR, a .265/.309/.455 line, 20 homers and 24 steals over 539 plate appearances. That would go down as a similar first full season to the one Nationals budding star center fielder Victor Robles recorded in 2019, an age-22, 617-PA campaign in which he posted 2.5 fWAR, slashed .255/.326/.419, swatted 17 HRs and stole 28 bases.
For the purpose of this poll, we’ll set the WAR over/under at ZiPS’ forecast, 2.3. Do you expect Robert to meet, exceed or fall short of that figure in 2020?
(Poll link for app users)
AL version of Ronald Acuna
Interestingly, Robert is older than Acuna.
Robert is already 22, Acuna had racked up nearly 10 WAR before turning 22!
I gave him an over vote based on the lineup he is in. Plus the AL Central will provide some hittable pitchers.
I don’t see Acuna.
Robert is far more of a free swinger than Acuna was. Acuna strikes out a lot because he works counts. Robert has the plate discipline of Tim Anderson.
This based on MiLB Player of the Year? Not sure why you’re so negative on every aspect of the White Sox, but I think he has AL ROY potential in 2020.
He does have ROY potential. It would not shock me if he wins Rookie of the Year.
But my assessment is based on the fact that he posted a five percent walk rate and 25 percent K rate last season in AAA.
Acuna in his stint in AAA had a ten percent walk rate and 25 percent K rate.
Tim Anderson, by comparison, had a three percent walk rate and a 22 percent K rate in AAA.
The way Robert approaches the game is much similar to that of Tim Anderson, than Acuna’s. That’s not being negative. That’s being realistic.
Robert profiles as a player with a max skillset is closer to that of Andre Dawson or Torii Hunter than Mike Trout or Acuna. If you think that is a negative, that’s on you.
K.
Acuna actually had a 7% walk rate at both AA and AAA (not 10% as you falsely claimed), compared to Robert’s 5% rate. And Acuna was younger. There are reasons to think Robert will not be as good as Acuna, but you don’t have to make up fake stats to support your narrative.
It’s hardly fake. In his last stint in AAA, before he was called up last year, it was 10.9 percent.
It was a smaller sample size, but it correlates with what he has done in MLB.
He also had a high walk rate in the lower minors.
Nothing in his profile or accounting report suggests Robert will walk that much.
What I don’t understand is why people are so attached to this idea that Roberts not only will be Acuna, but that he will demonstrate this in his first year.
He munger not have a great first season, folks. That happens all the time, and has been commonplace with WS hitters.
Still think he will develop, and be a solid player down the road. Again, I think he has Torri Hunter talent. Not sure why people are so upset by that assessment. Hunter was a 50 career WAR player.
I think those comps are off just because his most polished skills are his speed and defense. Hunter didn’t steal 100 bases in his career and, though Dawson stole over 300, it was in a more steals-happy time and he got caught over 25% of the time. Also, both of those guys were just slightly above league average defenders according to dWAR for their careers, while Robert should be significantly better than that. He may not rise as high as Acuna (and I certainly won’t dare to compare him to Trout), but your comps ignore his two most MLB-ready skills.
Andre Dawson and Torri Hunter aren’t good enough comps for Robert.
You do realize one is in the Hall of Fame, and the two combined for 17 GG’s?
Tough crowd.
The point is Acuna’s plate discipline has improved a lot since his first go-round in AA and AAA, because sometimes young players improve.
The Torii Hunter comp is lazy. Robert has waaaayyy more power and speed than Hunter, and a stronger arm. At age 21, Hunter stunk up AA, while Robert just destroyed both AA and AAA.
If Robert only plays like Torii Hunter, he will have underachieved relative to his immense tools. Plate discipline is his only question mark (as with most young players), and the Sox just promoted a new hitting coach who handled Ozuna/Yelich/Stanton/Realmuto pretty well as young players.
“He also had a high walk rate in the lower minors.”
Robert walked 19.3% of the time in rookie ball and 8% of the time in his short stint at A-ball. Those are the only levels Acuna ever had a “high” walk rate, and it hovered from 10-13%. And if you want to dig deeper and talk about age and blah blah blah, Robert walked 10% of the time as a 17 year old in Cuba and 16+% of the time as an 18 year old. If you want to use low minors numbers, I’d argue that favors Robert…
If you want to use their upper minors numbers, Acuna walked roughly 2% more at each level – aka nothing notable. His ~10% AAA walk rate was his second stint in AAA after having a full offseason to make adjustments. Neither one has/had a long track record of taking a lot of walks, and there’s no reason to think Robert can’t improve like Acuna did.
Maybe it’s just me, but I have a hard time knocking a player for plate discipline when he knows he’s the most talented player on the field and can hit the ball 500+ ft every time he makes contact. If he was struggling to hit the ball, sure, I’d blame him for not making adjustments. But when you’re putting up video game numbers at every level, just keep doing what you do. The real skill is making adjustments when you NEED to, which will most likely happen at the next level. If he shows he can’t do it, then feel free to call him out. But there’s nothing to suggest he can’t do it because he hasn’t really struggled yet.
That was back when Gold Gloves were largely a popularity contest with some highlight reel plays as evidence, rather than advanced metrics. And I’m not saying they weren’t good players, just that they’re not good comps.
To each their own.
Personally, if he turns out to be as good as either of these players, I would be thrilled, as would most White Sox fans.
If you see that as an insult or slight to Robert, that’s on you.
Not only is there no evidence to suggest he can do it, I don’t even think he NEEDS to do it.
I fully expect him to struggle the first year. But let me say this again – I think he is going to be a solid player. He just isn’t going to be Mike Trout or Acuna in terms of OBP.
And he doesn’t need to be.
If he can generate power, steal bases, hit for a decent average and play great defense, they can live with the fact that his walk rate overs around 5 percent.
Again, I don’t get all of the aggravation over the idea that he may not walk a lot, Scouting reports have suggested this for years, and his minors walk rate suggests it.
But if he rakes and plays defense, he will still be a great player, Just not the once-in-a-generation talent who will produce immediately that people have already anointed him after one solid season in the minors. .
My saying you’re wrong and my taking that as an insult are two different things. Dawson, especially, was a fine player. I just don’t think he was the five-tool player Robert is. If you can’t understand what people are really saying when they disagree with you, that’s on you.
Nobody has TA’s playe discipline. At one point in his rookie season, his average was higher than his OBP by a point. That is nearly impossible.
Robert’s walk rate will improve once MLB pitchers figure out they can’t throw him strikes. He literally hits everything over the plate. I watched video of this kid and it’s crazy how good his plate coverage is.
Gotta go with the under on this. His strikeouts will hinder his offense in the early part of his career but I think hes talented enough to eventually get over them
Yeah – I think Robert’s in for a significant adjustment period. Fangraphs minor league guys are saying he gets by because he’s outclassing the competition in AAA, not because he’s ready for the majors. Don’t count on 2020.
Uh, if he’s “outclassing” pitchers in AAA, that usually means you’re ready for the big leagues. Guys have done less than Robert and turned out to be superstar players. The haters are desperate. That’s a good sign.
I would say slightly under.
I think he will be solid ultimately, but the White Sox position players have all struggled their first full years or more in MLB, and Robert probably has the weakest hit tool out of Moncada, himself and Jimenez.
He also doesn’t have the plate discipline yet of Robles, so I’m expecting a ton of Ks to go along with a meager average and OBP of around 300. But 20/20 is certainly a possibility.
He will probably look like pre-2018 Tim Anderson, but with maybe some more pop.
Cogent reasoning, but just because other Sox players have struggled, it doesn’t mean he will. The plate discipline is a fair argument, but he has shown an ability to adjust quickly to new levels. It’s true that he’s just too talented for the minors while the majors has better players than he’s ever faced, but the thought process and work ethic to make the necessary adjustments are clearly there. I think he struggles early, then becomes solid in July and hot in August and September.
No evidence of anything you said. Zilch.
ROY!
last year, this same site said Eloy Jiminez will be ROY………..just let the kids play.
He came in 4th in ROY voting and hit 31 homers. They weren’t too far off.
Eloy struggled a little bit early and then was hampered by injuries. Nobody saw Alvarez coming, but if Eloy had been healthy the full year, he could have placed 2nd in the voting, based on his production when he was healthy for a significant stretch after getting acclimated.
Eloy is not a 5-tool player as is Robert.
Eloy hit .340 wit a 1.093 ops in sept/oct.. that doesn’t just come out of thin air.. That’s a higher OPS than Vladdy jr or Pete Alonso had any month last season. helps when you don’t get hurt and have a healthy lineup around you.. You look at how the guys ended the season and it was much different than the rest.
The future Lewis Brinson will be putting up negative WAR in center field for years to come for the Sox.
Jealous Cubs fan?
Lewis Brinson is a bust of epic proportions. A historically bad bust.
The only reason he is such a bad bust is because he was such a great prospect. A lot of good prospects are going to look like Brinson did when he was a prospect. A lot of good prospects are also going to look like Mike Trout did when he was a prospect.
Very few prospects will ever actually turn out like Brinson or Trout.
Does not help that he was the main piece in the Yelich trade too. Ouch..
But we also got SP Jordan Yamammoto, Isan Diaz and Monte Harrison. Stay tuned.
Brinson just won Home Run Derby in the Bahamas! He’s no bust!
Lol funny a cub fan bringing up Brinson ….. because he turned into yelich ….. who has absolutely owned you guys past few years
he won’t have an OPS over 1000 like he did in triple a. then again, WAR isn’t exclusively related to offense. kiermaier put up a 2.3 WAR last year with a 228/278/398 line. luis robert should outproduce that pretty easily and earn some positive marks for his defense. i’ll take the over.
That line was pretty much carried by his defense.
I say over. He may struggle offensively, but his defense should translate easily and he has elite speed, which will help him both get on base and steal bases. With just a little production later in the year, he can surpass a 2.3 WAR. If he adjusts quickly, as he may be able to with his talent and his history of adjustments, he could be the ROY.
3 things help his case to 2.3 war:
1) the extension means he likely gets the full season to do it;
2) hitters are stronger than pitchers typically out of ST, that almost gives him a little grace period to start the year;
3) it takes a while for opponents to create a book on a guy, and, that’ll coincide with point 2 allowing him to possibly pad the early stats a bit.
I figure his season to be somewhat of an inverse bell curve production-wise in the worst case scenario because of all that. 2 war isn’t a huge threshold for guys with talent to meet.
I think Robert will easily surpass this projection for three reasons: 1) He’ll have an incredibly strong Cuban support group from day 1 (Jose Abreu and Moncada); 2) He’ll have a Manager who is totally fluent in Spanish to guide him without having to drag along an awkward interpreter; and 3) He’ll have a really strong hitting lineup surrounding him.
Grandal is also from Cuba.
Plus, the guys (Jimenez, Mazara, Garcia, Lopez, Colome and Herrera) from Dominican Republic can’t hurt.
None of those are a reason to doubt the models, at best #3 might make you bullish that he’ll beat an RBI projection….
I say over, with ease. It’s not like he’s the one young player on the team with high expectations like in many comparable scenarios. Robert is coming to a young team filled with future superstars. Not future okay players… Future superstars.
Saw him play several times last year for the Barons. He looked solid all but one of those times. The one time he didn’t play well he looked awful. Over matched in each at bat and miss played two balls in the field.
I guess what I’m trying to say is I think he will do well but suspect he will have some struggles as well. My guess is his WAR will hover around 1 or slightly over.
Meh. He may seem solid with the Barons and Landed Gentry and Petty Bourgeoisie and stuff but would like to see him prove his game on the streets with the huddled masses with the likes of Van popeil and Harriet Mildridge and Camer Maybe
He’s a bust
Another jealous Cubs fan!
No I’m a jealous mets fan
How can he already be a bust when he hasn’t played a single game yet?
No you a bust
Bleacher Report has latest Power Rankings….
1. New York Yankees
2. Washington Nationals
3. Houston Astros
4. Atlanta Braves
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Tampa Bay Rays
7. Oakland Athletics
8. Philadelphia Phillies
9. Minnesota Twins
10. St. Louis Cardinals
11. Milwaukee Brewers
12. Texas Rangers
13. New York Mets
14. Chicago Cubs
15. Boston Red Sox
16. Arizona Diamondbacks
17. Cleveland Indians
18. Los Angeles Angels
19. Chicago White Sox
20. Cincinnati Reds
21. San Diego Padres
22. Toronto Blue Jays
23. San Francisco Giants
24. Seattle Mariners
25. Pittsburgh Pirates
26. Kansas City Royals
27. Colorado Rockies
28. Miami Marlins
29. Detroit Tigers
30. Baltimore Orioles
My Power ranking ….
1. New York Yankees
2. Washington Nationals
3. Houston Astros
4 DODGERS
5. Atlanta Braves
6. Tampa Bay Rays
7. CUBS
8. PHILLIES
9. Minnesota Twins
10 A’s
11. St. Louis Cardinals
12 RED SOX
13 METS
14 INDIANS
15. Milwaukee Brewers
16 Texas Rangers
17. Arizona Diamondbacks
18. Los Angeles Angels
19. Chicago White Sox
20. Cincinnati Reds
21. San Diego Padres
22. Toronto Blue Jays
23. San Francisco Giants
24 ROCKIES
25. Seattle Mariners
26. Pittsburgh Pirates
27. Kansas City Royals
28. Miami Marlins
29. Detroit Tigers
30. Baltimore Orioles
Bleacher Report Is Worthless.
I’m a Braves fan. No way are they number 4. Would I like them to be? Yes. Also, no way are the Nats #2
So the Phillies and Cubs leapfrog the Dbacks, who had more wins and a justifiably better off season? It’s called bias.
cvbs fans are in for a rude awakening.
“My Power Ranking”- cue the fanfare
White Sox have had a terrible time getting their bats to perform well upon promotion.
Also, as with most Sox hitters, there are serious swing and miss concerns on inside velocity and outside breaking stuff.
2.5 fWAR is his 2020 best case outcome.
Do you have any evidence to your incessant negativity about the Sox? Robert May struggle the first month of the season, like everyone else. He’s a 5-tool player with a high ceiling, so chances are he’ll do better than fine this year. Every scouting report says there is no limit to what Robert can accomplish.
The evidence is pretty clear and anyone paying attention to the team and their development struggles can see it- System wide issues with inside heat and outside breaking stuff. Scouting reports that confirm the same holes in Robert’s swing and plate discipline issues. Extended struggles by recent promotions getting acclimated to ML pitching. (Jimenez, Anderson, Moncada, Collins, Cordell, Tilson, Sanchez, Palka, Delmonico) Obviously some of those prospects were more highly touted than others, but all were exploited in the same way.
“Every scouting report says there is no limit to what Robert can accomplish” _ patently false. There aresome Brinson comps and all that delve into mechanincs beyond athleticism cite the issues I mention above.
Struggling with inside heat (specifically up and in) and low breaking balls is a league wide issue, not just a Sox one…
And you’re way too low on his talent if you think that 2.5 fWAR is his “best case” scenario. Either that, or you don’t understand what best case means. Depth Charts and Streamer on Fangraphs project 3.1 and 2.9 WAR for the 2020 season, and projections are generally conservative.
For goodness sakes, why are people freaking out about Robert “only” being a 2-to-2.5 WAR player next year.
You realize that this is his rookie year? That neither Moncada nor Jimenez had 2.5 WAR their first full seasons?
There is nothing wrong with having a reasonable outlook on what a player can do in their first year.
No one is saying we think he stinks. We don’t. it just takes most guys time to develop.
Where is the freaking out..?
Take a step back and reread exactly what I said.
I think it’s pretty reasonable to question 2.5 WAR as a “best case” when conservative projection systems peg him for ~3 WAR. Saying 2.5 WAR is best case isn’t a “reasonable outlook;” it’s extremely pessimistic. If you want to say 2.5 WAR is a reasonable expectation for next year, I’d 100% agree, but that’s far from what was said.
“There is nothing wrong with having a reasonable outlook on what a player can do in their first year.”
Oh yah. And to that, I’d say there’s also nothing wrong with pointing out that he’s an elite talent.
I don’t question his talent. I question the White Sox ability to develop it, the way they use it and how Sox talent has historically responded upon promotion.
So I believe a 2.5 fWAR season is the high bar for 2020.
As for the plate discipline comment above, when a player only walks at a 5%-7% clip, it’s fine as long as they K at a 10% clip.(that shows elite contact skills and being too good for a level)
If the K% is 4x the BB%, plate discipline and pitch recognition concerns are warranted.
The problem with outclassing the competition in your development in the minors is two fold:
1) stronger areas of your game allow you to gloss over the holes, especially holes your competition isn’t developed enough themselves to fully exploit the way MLB-level talent can
2) because of the previous point, the player isn’t used to dealing with the frustration and stress of playing catch-up while things just can’t seem to go right, and lack the general experience of constantly adjusting as required of mlb success – they need to try to learn the skill on the fly.
To succeed in milb it takes talent.
To succeed in mlb it takes talent plus the ability to adjust and readjust constantly, non-stop throughout your career.
That’s a tough jump to make from cruise control auto pilot.
“I question the White Sox ability to develop it, the way they use it and how Sox talent has historically responded upon promotion.”
I don’t blame you at all for that. And despite all that, I still believe that based on his talent level, 2.5 fWAR is a very low bar for his best case scenario.
I’m also not claiming he’s a player without flaws. As for plate discipline and pitch recognition concerns, I think they’d warrant much more concern if he wasn’t putting up video game numbers at every stop. If he can’t make adjustments when he stops destroying his competition, then there will be legitimate reason for concern.
He is a center fielder right? Just based on that defensive ability, he has a leg up WAR wise. He won’t have to get 2.3 of just offense
White Sox have had issues with player placement in the OF, dragging down defensive metrics for some. Although you are correct CF gets a bump, White Sox CF may be a handicap.
Issues with placement? Where are you getting this from?
The White Sox belive that OF’s should play shallower than most other teams. They believe that it’s better to take away cheap singles than defend against extra bases. Renteria says that 2Bs and 3Bs are on the pitcher and that teams should defend against “cheap” hits. (A seriously flawed approach, IMO)
It started with Eaton complaining about his positioning and has been reiterated in convos about Leury and Tilson.
Engel is elite at going back on fly balls and is able to compensate for the Sox’ (flawed) OF approach.
For such an avowed Sox fan, you seem to have missed a lot of info on how they do things.
Robert is at least as fast as Engel. As for the approach, yeah, it’s flawed, but at least they’ll have two heavy groundball pitchers in their rotation this year, which should limit the effects of it.
Speed is not the same as ability to retreat on fly balls.
Again, confusing athleticism with developed skills. It’s the development part that’s been the issue for the Sox. (as well as philosophy in this case)
And they have 2 aging ground ball reliant pitchers. Hardly a staff-wide skill.
The Astros play the shallowest outfield in the league and employ the most outfield shifts. The Red Sox also play shallow. Both of those teams are at the forefront of analytics. It works very well for them. Eaton was elite defensively in right field. Sometimes you just need good players in order to put up good defensive metrics. Robert is as fast as anyone, he should do quite well defensively.
Well how did Engel learn to retreat so well on fly balls? Was he born with it? Or perhaps did he learn some good technique while playing for ::gasp:: the White Sox? I’d call that player development. Same with Eaton. Don’t let that spoil your narrative.
Astros and Red Sox OF positioning is park related.
I’m pretty sure Engel was schooled by former Sox center fielder Aaron Rowand, a minor league instructor for the Sox. Engel is the best center fielder for the Sox since Jim Landis or, maybe, his successor, Ken Berry.
“Considering Robert has no experience in the majors, there’s no guarantee he’ll outproduce Garcia and Engel in his first taste of the majors.”
Yes, no guarantee lol.
Wont be as good as robles, maybe more home runs but strikes out a ton. .257 average .305 obp 22 homeruns (with a juiced ball) 150 strikes out with his swing. Ops + will be right around 90-110 all while being paid like he is mike trout.
He isnt even as good as soto or acuna if you dive deep into there stats both had excellent plate discipline in the minor and hit well over .350 in all levels. Even robles hit well in minors and look at his stats in majors. The comparisons to Acuna are well off base, this dude looks more like byron buxton based on skill set.
Uh-huh, keep telling yourself that and maybe you’ll believe it. Guys aren’t brought up this fast for large sums of money that stink.
Cameron Maybin says, “You’re wrong”.
Todd Van Poppel stated above hundreds of other voices trying to beat him to his statement of, “I second that.”
Lastings Milledge added, “I can flow a few rhymes of other prospects, but the song would be long.”
Pedro Borbon. Manny Mota. Gene Garber.
Random baseball names for $100 plz.
Plenty of “top prospects” dont pan out. Close to about 70 percent dont look at top draft selections since 2000….what happened to kevin maitan?
Paid like Mike Trout? Try again. He’s getting paid a fraction of what AJ Pollock is making.
Where does the “Robert strikes out a ton” claim come from? His K rate last year was 23.4%. Acuna, who you claim is not a good comp (but clearly is), had a 23.5% K rate in his last full year in the minors. Overall in the minors, Acuna is 21.2% and Robert is 23.3%. Robert also has an OPS of almost 100 points higher throughout his minor league career than Acuna did.
The claim that Robert strikes out “a ton” is a myth. He will strike out his fair share, but it’s not as big of a deal as his critics make it out to be. He’ll likely have a transition period early in the season like most young players. People will call him a bust and then disappear when he breaks out and tears it up (much like we saw with Moncada).
Acuna is great and there is no reason to think Robert can’t be as well. There are multiple people in these comments using Acuna’s minor league career to claim Robert can’t be as good as him when Robert’s been better statistically. Stop using fictional statistics to make your point.
Age matters for Acuna vs. Robert MiLB #’s.
Moncada’s transition period was a lot longer than “early in the season”. He needed over 600 PA’s and a .400 BABIP even sullies 2019 to an extent.
What stats are you reffing? His stats are 40 points lower in all levels than acuna and his obp is 50 points lower. Just look at eloys trip to the majors dude was a .350 hitter in triple and tumbled down to .270 lol robert was a .297 hitter with a .341 obp in triple that doesnt warrant the pay day he received
Dude, you’re a clown.
Acuna in AAA hit .305/.364/.466/.831
Robert in AAA hit .297/.341/.634/.974
Acuna in AA hit .326/.374/.520/.895
Robert in AA hit .314/.362/.518/.880
Robert also hit better than Acuna in A+ ball.
You’re just making up fake stats at this point. Go back to the kids table where you fit in with the clown show.
No more than 1.
Dunno…I watched him play quite frequently on Milb-tv, and the guy just oooozes talent. Could tone down the swing and miss, but he’s a wide receiver playing CF, which he does excellently. In interviews, he seems to have a clue, which helps.
The floor is at least a slightly above- above average MLB regular on a contending team. The ceiling is considerably higher. Rays’ fans will remember Delmon Young, who, if he wasn’t a nut case, would have been something. And Robert is easily better defensively.
Not crazy about the contract; it limits motivation. But if he’s the kind of guy who feels compelled to live up to it, the Chisox have a special player. Early long-term deals hurt sometimes. What will the Braves do with Acuna and his brain-farts? Send him to bed without supper? They’re stuck with the whole package, which more often than not never changes.
Pretty sure the Braves won’t regret locking up Acuna if this as good as he gets.
Not suggesting he’s not a supreme talent. he is, hard stop. But you buy the attention lapses and shenanigan’s along with the talent by locking him up, and then hoping he grows up.
Thats part and parcel with the discount.
With his tools/talent teams would line up out the door to offer better contracts than he signed even if those antics and miscues continued unabated into free agency.
He’s a good bet to be a great baseball player, but far too many have flopped once they reach the big leagues, so there are no sure bets. Also, there should be a version of WAR that is weighed with the player’s salary, so it tracks how much a team pays for that production. Seems like a guy like Robles is worth more if he has the same WAR at a fraction of the price.
It’s called surplus value. Basically, you count 1 WAR ~ $8M, then find out who overpaid/underpaid the least for what they got.
Only problem is the actual value of war is much less than 8m.
To begin with, replacement level is expected to post 52 wins, and that’s paying league minimum to those 25 guys.
Now, to get to .500 you need to buy 29 wins (29×8 would be 214m plus minor league contracts and benefits) but it’s impossible to do so under the cbt at that price.
Most playoff teams require 92-95 wins to reach the postseason. Thats buying 40-43 wins, or expecting a 320m to 344m payroll.
1 WAR isn’t worth 8m, and never was.
A much MUCH more realistic value for 1 WAR would be around 4.5m
Amazing that people are guaranteeing numbers for a guy that has never played at the MLB level.
Amazing that the entire fan base speaks as one collective voice
When there are only two of them left and he’s the only one on here…
Acuna, Moncada comps aside, this young buck is primed to be a future king like Simba
Well done
The fact that 20% of the readers tried to be cute and say he’d finish at exactly 2.3 is quite amusing.
This is a no brainer over and by quite a bit. He’s being compared with a lot of different players here and I keep reading that Sox players have problems converting to MLB. This is a mutually exclusive situation and Robert is easily better than all the Sox players listed.
He will play centerfield, before long he will either be at the top of the order or in the heart of the order.
Teams have already invested over $100M in this guy. He’s going to be the real deal. Over—easily.
As a Sox fan I’ve learned to be patient (which doesn’t come without frustration) as the month of April can be quite harsh weather wise in Chicago and other cities within the division. Typically cold with several rain outs to be expected. Based on that, the numbers don’t always flow heavily as the season opens.
gotta say a push. its fairly hard for rookies to put up big WAR numbers in general, so he could still have a good year and finish under.
I think Robles is a fair comparison who had a 2.5 fwar season. Robert has more power and is a great defender, but likely won’t have quite the defensive season that Robles had.
Not sure why we’re forecasting Robert’s WAR for ’20 already, nor do I care. I think he’ll struggle much like Yoan and Eloy did their rookie seasons. He may end up with better overall numbers, but I’m not concerned if he struggles. I guess my prediction is I see him not meeting the lofty expectations put upon him in ’20, people prematurely and foolishly labeling him a bust, and he takes off in ’21 or ’22. However you want to translate that to a magical WAR number, I’ll leave that up to you.
As for the Sox, outside of any bullpen moves, the team is set (maybe 2B if they’re not sold on Mendick and decide to keep Madrigal down until May). They’re not a playoff team, but the team’s set. I’d love to see them in the playoffs in ’20, but they don’t need to be in the playoffs yet. There’s too many key prospects they need to wait to develop.
I see the Sox as an 85-win team (give or take a few wins). The only reason they have a shot at the playoffs in ’20 is because they play in MLB’s toilet division. The Sox were a 100 loss laughing stock last year. They didn’t lose 100 because the other 2 laughing stocks were worse than them and someone had to win those epic battles.
Minny was not a 100-win team. They won 100 because they had an average team and 3 laughing stocks in their division to beat up on. Cleveland was a .500 team who won more because of the 3 laughing stocks. Trade Minny with the Cubs and the Cubs would’ve won 100 in that sad division.
I’m not trying to beat down on the Sox, I’m actually very excited for the team. But my expectations are not a division winner, but much better baseball. If the Sox somehow take the division, I won’t complain one bit.
I get the cautious optimism about the Sox in ‘20, but I see them as the better overall roster in the division. The talent and depth added to the roster should net them more than 10 extra wins over last year, which puts them squarely in the race for the division. Improvement in the MLB is rarely incremental. The Twins went from 78 wins to 100+ the following season. The Sox can easily win 85+ games with Moncada, Giolito, Jimenez and Robert as their core.
I take the over. Plate skill is a bit scary with high-ish k and low bb rate but batted ball quality and power should be good plus he gets already some runs on his position and probably defense too. Even if obp is low a 260/310/480 line with decent defense in cf should be worth more than 2.3 war.
There is of couree some risk in his plate disclipne that he struggles like moncada or buxton in their first years but I think he batted ball quality will be enough to compensate for an ugly k to bb rate.
No knock on Eloy or Sale, but Robert is probably the most exciting player to reach the bigs for the Sox since Big Frank. I expect some early struggles with a huge second half.
I like the fact they locked him up and look forward to a fun season on the south side. It’s been way too long since anyone cared to even talk about us. Enjoy watching the kid in this lineup and stay classy Chicago.
Luis Roberts has already achieved more career earning than Rickey Henderson
Can’t wait to watch this guy flash 5 tools! I hope he can comp with the career of Lorenzo Cain or Tori Hunter…. Both of those players were/have been mainstays for winning franchises… at 22yrs old, I’m not worried about how he starts…. the talent is there not only with Robert but the entire White Sox team
Cain is a decent comp, but Robert has more power. He has the raw talent to be as good as Acuna. I don’t know that he gets there because of plate discipline issues, but if he can make adjustments at the MLB-level like he did in the minors, he’ll be a lot closer to Acuna than to Cain or Hunter (not knocking either of those guys; getting the next of them would be a pretty good star for the Sox, just saying Robert could certainly be even better).
Pitchers will be saving their best bullets for this guy, not wanting to get lit up by the young buck.
The White Sox lineup top to bottom is pretty solid now. Anderson, though he’ll regress, just won the batting title and still has elite speed. Eloy has elite power and a good hit tool that was on display in September. Abreu’s still a solidly above average hitter, even if not elite anymore. Grandal gets on base a lot and hits for power. Moncada, because he’s so well-rounded, is better than any of them currently. Madrigal has no power, but will at least put the ball in play and should hit for a pretty good average. EE has been one of the league’s better DH’s for years and hasn’t slowed down much. That really just leaves Mazara, who’s barely below league average at the plate. I don’t think teams care who they get lit up by. They cared in the days of Bonds because the Giants had nobody else who could hit; if you got around him, you could shut down the rest of the team. This Sox team should score its share of runs from pretty much every spot in the order.
My over pick is mostly based on his supporting cast in the lineup, which his predecessors (and cited on here frequently having bad rookie campaigns:) did not have nearly as much of:
Tim Anderson 2016 (ROY7)
Yoan Moncada 2016 (2017 w/ WS, did not get ROY votes)
Eloy Jimenez 2019 (ROY4)
As recent as this fall, you had Yolmer Sanchez, Adam Engel, ????? for DH and Ryan Cordell (or ????) at 4 positions… I think Robert will be fine.