Yet another of this offseason’s best free agents exited the board when the Braves reeled in outfielder Marcell Ozuna on a one-year, $18MM guarantee Tuesday. Many high-profile free agents have earned more money than predicted this winter, but Ozuna’s one of the few standouts whose new deal checks in well south of expectations. For instance, MLBTR forecast in November that the former Marlin and Cardinal would come away with a three-year, $45MM guarantee.
With Ozuna no longer available, fellow outfielder Nicholas Castellanos is now unquestionably the No. 1 free agent in baseball. Those two have been closely linked for months, as they entered the winter as the premier unsigned outfielders and have been connected to some of the same teams via the open market. For what it’s worth, MLBTR originally tabbed Castellanos for a four-year, $58MM deal at the outset of the offseason. And as recently as December, the plurality of MLBTR readers who voted in a poll on Castellanos’ earning power said he’d make $55MM to $70MM.
Now, in the wake of Ozuna’s lighter-than-expected payday, perhaps you’re less bullish on Castellanos’ next contract. Age (28 in March) and a lack of a qualifying offer are working in Castellanos’ favor (Ozuna was stuck with a QO), as is his recent track record of above-average offensive production. On the other hand, Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings, initially at third base and then in the outfield, have been written about to death. Furthermore, it’s unclear just how large his market is now. The Braves could have been a fit for him, but they’re out now after signing Ozuna. The Marlins, Diamondbacks and White Sox were part of the Castellanos rumor mill earlier in the offseason, but they’ve addressed their needs in other ways since then. Castellanos was outstanding as a member of the Cubs in the second half of last season, though they’ve shown no willingness to spend a substantial amount on anyone so far this winter. Likewise, the Giants – even though they want to improve their offense – haven’t spent aggressively.
Teams like the Rangers, Cardinals, Reds and some mystery club(s) seem like the most logical suitors for Castellanos at this point. The Rangers have been connected to Castellanos more than anyone else of late, though they reportedly like him more as a first baseman than an outfielder. The Cardinals just lost Ozuna, potentially putting them in the market for a heavy hitter to replace him, but owner Bill DeWitt Jr. indicated this week that they’re all but tapped out from a payroll standpoint. The Reds, though, could arguably still stand to add an established corner outfield bat.
Regardless of where Castellanos plays next, do you expect him to follow in Ozuna’s footsteps and collect a more modest pact than expected? Or will Castellanos eventually become yet another of this offseason’s free agents to cash in big?
(Poll link for app users)
he isnt sleeping well tonight after the Ozuna news
Exactly-Nada 1 year 16mil with the pirates wouldnt surprise me.. just get this barging agreement going FFS
I can’t really figure out why Cardinals Owner Bill DeWitt Jr. is so set on tanking the Cardinals in 2020 and 2021 until his stupidly high contracts expire.
Uncle Mike… You are a special kind of stupid aren’t you? The Cardinals will likely win 90+ again this year yet, you accuse ownership of “tanking” the team. Very stupid. Like a full season of O’Neill won’t put up the same numbers? Can you read a stat line? And O’Neill has a better glove to boot AND CAN RUN TO FIRST.
You’re gonna need O’Neill to not strike out 200 times for that to happen. For the Cardinals to win 90+ games, they’re gonna need someone besides Goldschmidt, Yadi and Flaherty to step up. Dejong could be that guy. Maybe Carlson. There’s a lot of question marks on the Cards right now.
HUH? THE PIRATES? They are obviously rebuilding, and still cheap, after Marte leaves, their payroll will be approx 60mil, yes that’s right, 60 mill, so not going to pay 15+ mil for 1 year. Besides, Castellanos would have to want to go to Pittsburgh, he doesn’t, believe me. So the combination of those 2 things = a 0% chance he goes to the Pirates. Pretty crazy statement imo.
Not a crazy statement. Castellanos will go where he will get the most money and the most playing time. Not many teams are looking at corner outfield/DH types at this stage of free agency and the market gets smaller when you talk about teams that have cap space. Castellanos would be perfect on a one or 2 year deal with pitt. They can pay him to play right field and he would become a valuable trade piece come the trade deadline, especially if he has a year left on his deal.
Exactly, it’s way to early to say the sign and flip isn’t in cheringtons tool kit. Pirates definitely have the payroll flexibility. And at the money the op mentioned would be worth in it in Goodwill to the fans, pirates can definitely use any buzz they can generate, and more to tear down helps in the rebuild. There not gonna turn the ship around without making some investments (hopefully smart), sign and trades, international spending etc
Late inning pinch hitter for the White Sox!!
He sucks in the field but can flat out hit. That combined with no qualifying offer will get him at least double the years and money Ozuna just received.
I think he looking for the smallest ballpark he can find given his mental track record.
Idiotic remark from lilpartialbaldo. He will go to the Cubs. Good because we would rather have him than Bryant.
Did you just have a conversation with yourself?
Lol and the other guy has an idiotic remark? I’m hoping this is sarcasm
God, I really hope you don’t represent the entire Cubs fan base with stupid comments like that.
Who says “we” don’t want Bryant?
Because of the grievance? There isn’t hard feelings, it’s just business.
I’d love for Bryant to be a Cub for life along with Rizzo and Baez.
Jose Martinez.
Remember Ozunas pick isnt a big loss. Its about #70 in the draft. He may not be looking at alot better contract. offer.
I think he is going to find his way back with the Cubs somehow.
he’s not going back to CHC for the same reason Dickerson was never going back to Philly – no real room.
They made room last year and he was great.
I agree — it’s either Cubs or Rangers. The Rangers will likely need to come up w 4 yrs at $20 per, whereas the Cubs might be able to get him cheaper ($16 in ‘20, $18 in ‘21, $20 in ‘22 & $22 in ‘23?) for the 1st year to help w the CBT number, with raises in years 2-4.
He’s not getting 4 years. No way. 2 or maybe 3 if he’s super lucky.
That’s a huge assumption to give a guy at 27 with big slugging numbers when put in a more hitter friendly ballclub. Specifically, one contending in my eyes.
what is a more hitter friendly ballclub?
Hitter friendly ball club..
Hmm
Maybe he means if there’s a guy in front and a guy behind him who can hit then he will get more pitches to hit?
Ballpark* but sure, you definitely didn’t understand the first go around.
Agreed
Agreed
Possibly deal has been in place for a long time. Both Bryant and Castellanos have the same agent. Boras. Waiting on service time issue. Braves still have prospects and luxury tax room. Also no real third baseman. Castellanos back to Cubs. Maybe Cubs get one of the two Atlanta contenders for 3b job back in the deal. Four year contract first year much less than last
I’ll venture a guess at 2/$40 give or take a couple mil
Nope, Padres at 4/50
Giants will give him 4-75
No, I think not. I say Giants give Castellanos $18/2 with an option buyout around $2M. And, hopefully, they play him at first, either by trading Belt or platooning him with Belt (also allowing Belt to play some left field).
I’m expecting some unexpected trades involving certain super stars for uncertain prospects who may or may not one day find themselves in the same boat.
and yeah, potent stuff.
I think at this point he’s better off taking a 1yr/19mil deal and coming back to the market next year, unless the rangers or any other team interested ponies up the money and years.
I’m thinking 2 years just a hair above $10 million AAV. He’s attractive to AL clubs and has no QO.
Just a wild guess at this point.
If he was willing to take that he’d be on a team already
no, he’s not willing to take that …. yet.
No matter the money I just can’t wait til he signs so we don’t have to keep reading about him.
Yep, kinda the way we feel about your always negative comments.
Texas should be seeing whether he wants a guaranteed payday. 4/50 is decent value the club, isn’t a crippling contract if it goes poorly, and locks in a lifetime of wealth for him.
He’d be smart to take the pillow like Ozuna did. Who ya got next year? Betts? Maybe; I don’t agree that Mookie leaving Boston is slam dunk. JT? Philly has a lot of money. Outside out of those two, not much.
Take the make-good, teams will be under pressure to give (with the CBA pending), nice landing spot for a young(er) free agent.
Philly may have money, but has already spent a load in the past two offseasons and is near the cap. also dont see Klentak making many more big deals. (feel kinda like he is a lame duck at this point)
I think he ends up in Cincy
He does need a smaller park for sure.
51 games in Chicago and ZERO errors. Golden glover Heyward had six.
much more to defense then errors… smh
Imagine citing errors as an even rudimentary metric in gauging defensive ability. Castellanos had 0 errors because he moves like he’s got a piano on his back. Guy can’t get to the ball.
Ever played baseball? Even in little league, an outfield error completely takes the wind out of a team’s sails. Errors are still a relevant stat.
Additionally, Castellanos has gotten good at gunning down runners who are foolish. And an outfield assist pumps up a team more than most defensive stuff.
Castellanos is going to get 4/50 from the Padres.
You guys crack me up. No one cares about your little league nostalgia. Errors are the most flawed statistic in baseball, perhaps in American sports.
Nelson Cruz also had 0 errors!!
What a terrible take. Do you even watch baseball? Put down the fantasy stats and just watch.
High outfield assists are also a result of runners taking the extra base on a poor defender. Hes recognized as a poor defender with the eyes and the advanced metrics
Errors are a crap stat that penalize the range of star defenders when they don’t pull off an amazing play that would be considered a clean hit against a lesser defender.
Errors are called hits in today’s baseball. Scorekeepers were much harder 25+ years ago. If anything, errors aren’t called enough in this game.
Um, nope. Outfield assists aren’t a counting stat that we’ll allow to be ruined by the advanced metrics boys. It’s an exciting baseball play that gets a team pumped up and helps a pitcher get out of an inning earlier. Castellanos might not be Al Kaline out there but Castellanos still throws on target to the right base. Many with better arms or more range don’t get the assists he gets because they don’t make as smart if throws.
One could easily argue that many with better arts or more range don’t get the assists he gets because other teams don’t run on them anywhere near as frequently…
Priggs, agreed which is why fielding stats are so subjective and very volatile. Anything that changes drastically from year to year isn’t reliable in my opinion.
His market is where it should be, considering his defense. Wouldn’t be surprised at 4 @ 12 per but if that’s all he’s offered, he’ll take 2 @15. He’s not getting a cent more than any other agent by using Boros.
Meanwhile Ozuna is a butcher in LF with an arm like a 6th grader. Some of you guys can’t help yourselves listening to the mainstream media opinions which aren’t worth a thing. Most of them can’t follow a single team let alone all 30.
Ozuna is brutal in LF. Massive liability.
No QO and 3 years younger than Ozuna. He’ll hd out before he accepts a one year offer.
I doubt he sits. He will sign a 1 yr deal before that. 1 yr 18-21 mil range.
Another 1 year deal for ATL. Sorry Markakis you outta here
Yes!
guy had a down year and was still great last year. i dont know what more people want out of him for the money he is willing to play for.
Rangers will offer 2years plus an option for third year. 48m for three, 32m guaranteed plus 1m buyout for third year.
I prefer Castellanos to Ozuna all things being equal. It depends if you need a Lf or Rf. I think Castellanos career trumps Ozuna the rest of the way.
My guess the Rangers but who knows could b Reds they are on a mission to win, especially with Ozuna now signing with the Braves!
Market is drying up. The music is about to stop and one has to wonder if there is still a chair for Castellanos. My suspicion is he will get at least 2 years, but probably not much more, $35-40M since he has no QO attached.
plz boras is his agent, no qo, he will get 50 million plus
Didn’t they say that about Mike Moustakas? He turned down a QO of $17.4M from KC in 2017, not only not getting a huge deal, he signed for a one year, $6.5M with KC. And then there’s Arrieta who he totally overvalued. Boras is out for himself and gives the game a bad name.
My guess is he will soon be a Ranger.
I hope Castellanos signs with the Rangers 4 years / $55 Mil with 2 team options for $15 mil each would make it a 6yr/$80 mil contact.
He could still hit the open market one more time at age 31 or 33.
His bat is pretty damn good and makes him a 2.5 WAR player. I’m thinking $5.5 mil per WAR. $13.75 per year the first 4 years then if he’s hitting well the last two years $15 mil should be about right.
He could play 1B this year and DH when Choo plays OF or if he gets injured then move to DH starting 2021.
That would give Guzman one more year to grow into our future first baseman
4 years / $60M
3 yr 60 m. No qo and boras is his agent. $20M a year is still fair for a youngish player who can hit for avg and power
Can see him getting multiple years and close to 20m based on his age, but remember JD Martinez had a chance to opt out this season with 2/19.5m 21-2, then 25m 2020 and he would have gotten 5m as an opt out bonus, yet Boras and JD declined.. Granted, he’s 5y older believe it is, but a MUCH better hitter than Castellanos as well to any AL team looking at a pure DH with only occasional use in the field, about as big of a step up offensively as Castellanos is over Ozuna.
Another thing think goes against him taking a 1ydeal is JD again next year has his last player option and can walk with the 2 19.5m years left. has the market hit the floor now for DH’s with Cruz and Encarnacion as well not getting that much?
Castellanos has been a better hitter than JDM to this age of his career. Why can’t he still improve as well?
rangers 4/60!
I’m guessing Rangers will sign him to play first.
I believe he can secure a 4 year 70. Only way I’d do it as a ranger fan is front load it at 22 for first year. This year isn’t looking too promising for rangers. Starting pitching is a big improvement but until this younger talent comes up, I think 2021 is the best guess at a start for a big run. It’s front loaded so if it doesn’t work out the last 3 years are 16 mil and a better trade piece. If it does and you have a set 1st baseman (Cof only in dire need) you have a legitimate right hand bat.
In terms of AAV he’s not getting close to the money Ozuna got. $12–$14mm/year at best
Sometimes these things are like musical chairs, and the last guys get left disappointed. I think Ozuna is on par with Castellanos–not quite the hitter but more playable in the field. And Castellanos doesn’t have an amazing track record. Teriffic last third of of the season last year, but it’s a gamble to count on him being that good a hitter.
I know I overvalued a bit on Castellanos. The fact that Fielder and Choo contracts are gone after 2020 makes sense to spend a little over this year than one would like to secure the future of a good right hand bat. 22 mil for first year would influence someone to change from outfield to first base. I played some baseball and when you want someone to change positions, it’s like hearing you suck at 3rd. Go to outfield. You suck there too. Well now it’s time for 1st. No ball player wants to hear that. But a nice 1st year paycheck can overcome that in my option.
Wish the Tigers would bring him back. 3/$64
He’ll need to be real desperate to go back to Detroit.
Wouldn’t have to be that desperate if they offered him a 3 year 64 million dollar deal. Castellanos can only dream about a deal that fat.
The fact that he overshot his market doesn’t surprise me in the slightest. The day he hired Boras I figured this was the likely outcome.
why did he choose artist as the name on his jersey for that nickname bs?
Because he eats paint.
Because he paints houses.
I want to live in the world imagined by the people who think Castellanos is getting $60M or more. In that world, everyone has 4 or 5 times more than in the real one.
I believe Texas is waiting for a resolution on the Bryant situation before signing Castellanos.
Damn that many people really think he’s going to settle for 1 year now?
Damn that many people really think he’s going to settle for 1 year now?
I dont think NC will take a 1 yr deal. He has never had a QO so he would probably be saddled with one next year. This is his best chance for a big payday. He should get 3/50 at least. Maybe 4 or 5 yrs. His bat makes him worth it. Who knows GG first baseman maybe.
Next year, if offered, he would take the QO, especially if he is in a hitter friendly place raking and racking up value.
^will not take a one year deal…
One year $18M to play 1B for TEX
If he takes a 1 year deal he will be subject to a QO next year. I think he takes a 3 year incentive laden contract. Probably with an AL club.
He might get four years from the cubs if he will take a back loaded contract and of course if Bryant gets moved….maybe 13 17 17 17
If they want him to move to first base(Rangers), I bet he will need a premium offer to do it. Otherwise he will sign somewhere else as an OF or DH.
Nick should be able to get 3 years at around 50.-55..Texas looks like the place…What about Toronto as a landing spot…Tigers should sign him and bring him back hes still young plus we need all the help we can get….then move the fences in in right center….
Toronto has to get rid of an OF or two. Plus they have an issue in CF; the guys they have can’t play well there.
I think the market evolved slowly for him and Ozuna. I think he winds up 3/$50 million range. Cubs have been hamstrung with Bryant situation. I’ll bet Cubs have told him to check back with them before signing. Money won’t be there, so he goes to Rangers, Braves or Giants.
braves got ozuna so not there. he looks to be a dh soon so texas over giants as well.
Right. My bad. Texas is my thinking. He complained about Detroit’s Park, so SF would be tough sell.
I think he lives in Florida, he may lean to a team in the Grapefruit League. If it comes down to picking between teams.
He played high school ball in Florida. He’s 27. He’s a proven mlb player. He’s not choosing a team because of a triple a affiliate. He’s holding out. He’s willing to move to a new home. He wants the $$. It’s either on a one year 16 mil or a multi year deal (which he wants) It will happen. One has to think that the cubs are a favorite landing spot due to the hesitation.
If the Jays weren’t so right handed, this would be a good fit. 4 years 70 Mil is market value. Grichuk goes to CF and send McKinney and Fischer to AAA for forever. Those two will never be 2 WAR players but its unfortunately going to take another year for the front office to see this
Fisher is out of options. Grichuk is brutal in CF. If the Jays can deal him then yes, absolutely bring in Castellanos.
Jays aren’t close enough to being competitive in the east. 2 more years of Vlad Jr, Bo and Biggio maturing and thats when their window starts. That would be the best time to get a big free agent bat.
Texas or the Cubs(once this grievance is settled… IF it ever gets settled) My money is on Texas. 3 yrs/50 mil with an 18 mil 4th year TEX option (2 mil buyout) He was GREAT for the Cubs, but he’s really best served in an AL park, dude can’t play defense.
Once the league gets wise and makes the DH available in both leagues, it will benefit everyone. Contracts will get bigger, more money when 30 teams are filling a DH spot as opposed to half. Great for the players, hopefully they push for that in the next CBA along with the electronic K zone.
Not sure what MLB is thinking. Once they decided to incorporate replay, why half step? Move all the way in to the 21st century. No need to romanticize “America’s pastime” once the allure of that was removed w/ replay.
Marlins 1 year deal for 18 million with a player option for year 2. They should swoop in and sign him with the way his market is shaping up.
Sorry. That’s a stretch. He wants to compete.
“Start12”, The Grapefruit League is the major league spring training league. It’s not triple A. The other spring MLB league is the Cactus league( which doesn’t play in Florida). All things being equal, he may choose to be close to home for 1 1/2 months a season.
I know. Your right. Yeah I made a mistake. I still don’t think that has anything to do with a proven mlb player as it pertains with where he signs a contract with. Being relatively young and still has plenty of time to root his family.
My guess is the Cardinals (2 years/ 38 million).
Mariners 1 year 22 Million. Flip him at the deadline
seattle has low iq baseball fans
Seattle has super fans. But don’t get the media coverage. Remote.
He’s young and has no QO attachment. I think his agent has been greedy but he should still get a 4 year deal and possibly a 5 year.
Why? The guy can hit. He can be hid in RF or 1B and then DH; so the American League makes the most sense.
Rangers, 5 years/$70M. Good AAV for Rangers and security for Castellanos.
I hope Nick does that well. After the blazing 2nd half with the Cubs, his market may never be higher. It comes down to what teams are willing to spend. I tend to think that kind of money might get budgeted to pitching needs.
Who knows at this point. But I still put him ahead of Ozuna in value.
Anything longer than two years will probably be a front loaded contract. With an opt out after two years. Letting him hit the market again at 29 if he desires.
Jeeze. If he signs for as little as some people think, I’m really going to be annoyed about Hahn signing a 37 year old Encarnacion over him.
I bet Nick’s agent is hilighting his 2nd half numbers in Wrigley. They translate to 63 doubles, 48 home runs in 636 AB’s.
I’d be all over him to be my DH in a hitter’s park. Rangers make sense. Who knows if they still play in a hitters park though.
Tigers should offer him 6/75 to return to Motown. He could be back in right field until Miggy retires. The only reason they traded him was Boros wouldn’t negotiate an extension he deserved, about 12 million a year
Don’t be surprised to watch the Reds “sneak” in there and nab Castellanos for 2 years and $35 million !
I could see him grabbing 3/39 here quick before his value drops lower. If not in the next week then maybe 2/30. If he’s still a free agent at the start of Spring Training I bet it’ll be a one year deal.
Reds should grab him.
Hmm. Wish the Mets could somehow get him in budget. OF/3B. Perfect!
If his price is somehow falling thanks to the Ozuna news, I’d really like to see the White Sox get in on the bidding. Mazara is a bench player at best.
I know he’s not good in the field, but he’d be another solid addition to that batting order and he already seems to like Chicago. Maybe 3 years / 54 mil gets it done?
Go get him, Hahn!