No team took a bigger step forward in 2019 than the Twins, who increased their win total from 78 to 101 in a one-year span. They knocked the back-to-back-to-back AL Central-winning Indians off their pedestal in the process, taking the division by a cushy eight games. The Twins did it with a juggernaut offense known as the Bomba Squad – a group that smashed the all-time single-season home run record with 307 during a historically powerful year across baseball. In the end, though, the Twins’ longtime playoff nemesis in the Bronx proved to be their undoing once again when October arrived.
The Yankees continued to haunt the Twins, but there was still plenty to be encouraged about for the latter when its offseason began. The expectation entering the winter was that the Twins would make aggressive upgrades to their pitching staff, which was facing the departures of four free-agent starters in Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez. They wound up keeping Odorizzi and Pineda, though the latter will miss the beginning of the season after incurring a 60-game suspension for a banned substance last September. Those two and Jose Berrios should give the Twins’ rotation a strong foundation when Pineda returns, but questions abound otherwise.
The Twins didn’t come away with a Zack Wheeler or Madison Bumgarner type in free agency, instead reeling in the veteran duo of Rich Hill and Homer Bailey on one-year deals. Hill has been absolutely great when healthy. Problem is that he’s an oft-injured soon-to-be 40-year-old who won’t debut until the summertime after undergoing elbow surgery. Bailey’s career was all but left for dead a couple years back, but he did experience a resurgence in 2019, turning back into a viable starter with the Royals and A’s. The rest of the Twins’ rotation possibilities are decidedly less experienced, though there’s promise with the likes of Randy Dobnak, Brusdar Graterol, Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer.
The Twins haven’t splurged on expensive starters or relievers (the battle-tested Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard signed affordable deals), but they’ve somehow found a way to assemble an even more intimidating offense. The club that boasted five 30-homer hitters a year ago just found a sixth in ex-Brave Josh Donaldson, whom it added on a four-year, $92MM pact. It’s the largest contract the Twins have given a free agent, but Donaldson seems worth it based on his lengthy track record of excellence.
The Donaldson deal might not look great in a few years, at which point he’ll be in his late 30s, but the Twins can worry about tomorrow when it comes. Today they’re focused on a World Series, and they just might get there with an offense capable of pounding opposing teams into submission. Assuming the baseball itself has less juice than it did last year, the Twins are likely to amass fewer HRs as a team. Still, when the likes of Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Mitch Garver are part of your regular lineup, there’s little doubt you’ll terrorize enemy pitchers.
As frightening as the Twins’ offense looks, the team itself could face more tests within a division that it owned last season. Minnesota went a combined 50-26 against the Indians, White Sox, Royals and Tigers. The Indians should still be a quality team (that’s if they don’t trade Francisco Lindor), and the White Sox are on the upswing after they made a slew of noteworthy acquisitons earlier this winter. Detroit and KC will be at the bottom of the division again, but at least the Tigers have made some effort to improve, including with the pickups of ex-Twins C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop.
While it may be a more competitive AL Central in 2020, the Twins remain the front-runners. The question is: Just how good do you think they’ll be?
(Poll link for app users)
They’re still like two pitchers away, swap a couple prospects for Gray in Colorado or maybe Matz in NY , and maybe pick up Felix Hernandez and see what he can still do with a solid lineup behind him , adding a bench bat like Logan Forsthye and a speed threat like Billy Hamilton wouldn’t hurt either
Royce Lewis , for Matz , Conforto
Felix is done. If he couldn’t look decent in Seattle’s ballpark. He’s not going to look good anywhere else.
Likely true re Felix. Still, it’s surprising that he has yet to get a even a minor league deal/big league camp invite.
Twins have ZERO need for Conforto. Matz I wouldn’t mind though. And there’s little reason to add a bench player like Forsythe or Hamilton when they have other utility guys, Marwin Gonzalez, and don’t steal bases. No way in hell anyone other than Seattle should sign King Felix. Gray would be a great get from Colorado if they’re willing to deal him.
As a Mets’ fan, that’s an interesting offer, but the Mets have some depth themselves at SS. Lewis clearly has the highest ceiling but he would be pushing Rosario, Gimenez and Mauricio down the organizational depth chart. This article shows similar offers: skornorth.com/twins-2/2019/07/the-case-for-trading…
Lewis is also viewed in MN as a fit in CF. Heard a rumor the Mets might be looking for one.
No thank you we have Rosario and Giminez and Guillorme, so no need for Lewis who strikes out a ton, you’d get your number blocked asking for matz and conforto
You mean the Mets would get blocked asking for Lewis in that trade. The guy was the number one overall pick in the draft 2 years ago and was ranked in the top 5 prospects in all of baseball coming into the season.
Lewis was pretty awful in the minors in 2019
Lewis suffered an oblique strain in Spring Training which sapped much of his power and ability to drive the ball with authority in 2019. He was much better late in the year and was VERY good in the AFL, also.
K rate is too high. Won’t be up that long with what they have coming
K rate is too high. Won’t be up that long with what they have coming
This is one of those takes where you find out just how little someone knows
royce Lewis for matz and conforto is a weird trade. probably have to add a pitching prospect too
Why would the Mets trade a starting outfielder and a starting pitcher for a prospect when they are also trying to compete? If their bullpen didn’t implode the last 2 months of the season, they would have been a wildcard team.
The Mets went 34-21 the last two months of the season in a mad sprint to almost sniff a 2nd wild card. The months you’ll want to be pointing fingers at are the 38-47 first four.
They’re ummm, good? idk
They’ll win the AL Central by at least 7 games. Cleveland 2nd White Sox 75-87. Tigers and Royals slug it out for 4th and 5th
No they won’t. Cleveland’s pitching staff is much better than the Twins staff. Clevinger, Bieber, and Carrasco would all be #1’s on that Twins staff. Plus their bullpen is better. A full year of Lindor also helps that team. The Sox got a great 1-2 punch in Giolito (12k, 3 hit shutout vs Twins last year) and Kuechel (groundball pitcher). The Twins may run roughshod over KC and Detroit, but the WSox and Indians will both be much tougher this year, making the AL Central more difficult. .
I’m not discounting Cleveland at all because I think that will be a big fight, but even with the injuries to the Indians staff the Indians were better at pitching in 2019 than the Twins were. And the Indians still didn’t win the division…
The white sox and the twins are I the same position. Great lineup, but not much coming from the mound. It will take the “lightning in the bottle” magic that the twins had last year to push either team over the top. I have Cleveland as the favorite, but I’d they start slow they will trade Lindor and then it is a two- dog fight.
Yeah ok. Sox will win 85 games this year. So
Go around the diamond. White Sox lineup as good as the Twins, and rotation should be better.
They finish within three games of each other.
Indians rotation is better than both of them and will finish a few games above both of them, but will be a close race all year
Bro I’m sorry but the twins have an all around better lineup. The outfield for mn is way better and the infield is too. Abreu and grandal are probably the only 2 guys that are better than what the twins have now. Starting rotation is pretty comparable and the bullpen the twins have the edge.
What? If you look at positional player Fwar for 2019, the twins were 4th, the Sox 22nd. You wanna say there is room for one to go up and one to go down, fine, but declaring they’re as good, with no evidence to support that?
Going to go with no on that one. The White Sox were at a negative 124 run differential last year. That was top 10 bad. The Twins will likely regress and the white sox will likely improve but that’s a crazy statement.
Baseruns and Pythag say the Twins played over their heads by three games last year. Should have been a 98 win team. Same stats say the White Sox won 3-4 more games than they should have. The Sox have improved this offseason but they are still miles apart talent-wise.
Adding Donaldson immediately improves our infield defense ALOT. His bat is essentially replacing Crohn’s, and that’s also an improvement. If we can keep Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler healthy all season, they’re gonna be the best OF in baseball.
The White Sox will be lucky if they’re still in contention in July
If he stays healthy. And the Sox will be in contention all year.
Pitching Pitching Pitching will tell the tale.. and the Twins are woefully short to start the year and those games matter as much in the standings as do game in august and september.. as far as World series aspirations.. the best bet is to look at the teams with the best pitching.. they seem to get there.. they don’t have to be home run hitting teams.. in fact believe teams that have hit under 100 home runs have won the Series since 2010… The Twins need to add a ACE before the deadline , preferably long before.. and that means trade,.. then they will have a legit shot at a title.. until then offense sells tickets.. pitching wins championships.. look for the Twins to win 85-90 games all things being equal.. while noting that Luck, injuries and timing are main factors in seasons and can increase or decrease a teams chances..
Agree on the pitching comment. The bullpen is no lock to be good either Rogers came out of nowhere as a closer.
I think a lot went right for the Twins last year. That doesn’t happen every year.
Rogers has been good for a few years he didn’t come out of no where lol he didn’t give up a run in the second half of 2018
Lmao citing ignorance and claiming certainty all in one hot take
speaking of citing ignorance while claiming to understand the comment.. you seem to have that down..
85-89 and that’s on the high side, IMO.
Loaded with young bats and a stud ace. But that’s it. Their rotation has yet to be addressed and I don’t think it will be as they’ll need to overpay for a TORS. They’re putting a lot of faith in Odorizzi repeating a career year and being their #2. Plus they’re counting on all those young bats repeating their strong 2019’s.
I just don’t buy it. This year they’ll be one of three teams fighting for that division (unless the Indians continue selling) when last year there was only one other threat and that team was riddled with injuries… so no real competition.
Just my two cents. I could be wrong. You could be wrong. Who knows.
So the Twins will win 16 fewer games than last year despite adding around 10 WAR this offseason?
No doubt there’s some regression coming but 85 wins is unrealistically low.
I voted that the Twins would win 95-100, but i wouldnt say 85 is unrealistically low.
16 fewer wins is a massive drop off for a team with an improved roster of both internal options and external signings. Hard to see where that much regression comes from.
@Begamin, I’m a White Sox fan and it would require a huge amount of regression (or injuries) for them to get that low. Returning to a normal ball would help, but even so, that offense is still easily the best in the division. I can see them getting worse by 8-10, but not by 16…unfortunately.
Improved offense, weaker pitching
They might win 90
The Twins won 78 games in 2018. Nelson Cruz who turns 40 in July is not going to post a BABIP more than 40 points higher than his career average again. Odorizzi is coming off the best year of his career. Pineda is out until mid May and there is no guarantee HIll pitches in 2020. I don’t think 85 wins is that unrealistic. I think all three of the Indians, White Sox and Twins finish in the 85 to 95 win range. Health and the development/progress of each teams young players will probably determine the order. All three teams are pretty close at this point.
“Nelson Cruz who turns 40 in July is not going to post a BABIP more than 40 points higher than his career average again. ”
So the Twins might have to settle for his Mariners-level production? Poor babies.
“Odorizzi is coming off the best year of his career.”
That’s a funny lookin’ negative.
“Pineda is out until mid May and there is no guarantee HIll pitches in 2020.”
And unless Homer Bailey is planning on kicking his pitches to home plate in the interim/Hill’s absence, I don’t see the where 16 games fall off.
It’ll be Twins/Indians all year, unless the tribe ships Lindor. You believe in the Sox a lot more’n me.
This lost is ridiculous, you clearly dont know anything about baseball.
You said the same thing to people predicting the Cubs only winning 80-85 games last year after winning 95 games. Some look ahead while others live in the past.
The 2019 Twins had zero competition in their division and had a lot of overachievers. That all changes in 2020.
2919 Twins were in a race with Cle until the end of August / beg Sept. To say “zero” competition is inaccurate. They will have the Tribe (again) as legit competition as well as Chi Sox. Doubtful so many things go right for Twinkies as did last year. Odorizzi is not a #2 in the reg season and def not playoffs… will be exploited again if they happen to make post season.
Hey Badacldtrip69, remember October 10th, 2019 when “Odorizzi is not a #2 in the reg season and def not playoffs” threw a Quality Start against the highest scoring team in baseball? ’cause I do.
Remember that time when one start means nothing compared to a career of being a non-ace including last season?
Remember 21 Aug 2019 when Lucas Giolito threw a 3-hit shutout (12k’s) against the Twins. So whats your point????
Apparently neither do many projection systems either, they seem to be right around the 85 mark.
Stud ace?
They don’t have a stud ace. They’re a shaky lineup with luck from a juiced ball and a shaky bullpen. They were the luckiest team in the Majors in 2019.
Please tell me why the Twins were the only team to benefit from the juiced ball? Is this a deflated football scenario? The Twins were the only ones with a juiced ball? Nope…
All teams had the same benefit. If the ball is de-juiced it will hurt every team. And the shaky lineup makes no sense. Sure all will likely regress, but some made legit sustainable improvements in approach and pitch recognition. Kepler and Garver to name two.
I disagree with the BP too as the Twins BP was top five in FIP and xFIP proving they were absolutely not lucky and were actually slightly unlucky by xFIP.
The main reason I see the Twins being successful is that they will likely outslug their competition in the central, and will make up for poor pitching with an improved defense. But I honestly see them only winning 88 to 90 games, although that will probably be enough to win the division.
People are vastly overestimating how good the White Sox will be, and underestimating the firepower the Indians still have.
The WS are better, but favorable projection assume great output from rookies in the lineup (WS position players have historically struggled in the first year or two over the past seven years), and extremely optimistic production out of a back-end rotation featuring young and/or injury-prone pitchers.
The Indians will still be competitive so long as they don’t make any additional moves to tear the franchise down.
The Royals and Tigers stink.
You can’t compare past rookie seasons for the White Sox when they have been in rebuild mode. The philosophy appears to be to bring players up to the mlb level and let them learn there. Instead of waiting until they are 100% ready when you are trying to win games
Moncada will end the season with better stats than Donaldson guaranteed. Sox have the AL batting champ and rbi leader.. they added about 80-100 homers to the lineup and over 80 doubles. They have a better pitching staff. Eloy will have more homers than any twin. Oh and we have a phenom in Robert coming up and a contact baseball IQ king in Madrigal coming up..Madrigal only had like 16 strikeouts in 520 at bats.. plenty of reasons to be excited as a sox fan. I wouldn’t put all my hopes and prayers on the twins bashing like they did last year.. they have major pitching problems. White sox have way more depth.
The twins have a better pitching staff than the white Sox imo. Fourth in the AL in ERA last year and they really didn’t lose anyone important to go along with boosting the bullpen and lineup
Every white Sox prospect is gonna dominate, zero twins prospects will, generic homer comment, got it.
To be fair, Anderson’s not repeating as batting champ, and his batting championship is a large part of why Abreu had the RBI totals he did (being on base ahead of him constantly). I think the White Sox have a great opportunity to succeed this year, but I don’t think suggesting Tim Anderson or Jose Abreu repeat at anywhere near that level is reasonable, unfortunately.
Now, Madrigal or Moncada might have a better shot at that batting title…
The White Sox lineup is pretty comparable to the Twins and as good if not better than the Indians that do not have an outfield.
Eloy Jimenez who made his MLB debut in 2019 is only scratching the surface of his ability. Moncada is a star. Luis Robert is a top 5 prospect. Nick Madrigal is a top 50 prospect. Tim Anderson only started playing baseball his junior year in high scool because he was busy leading his team to a state basketball championship. He has been playing baseball for less than a decade and he made progress as a hitter in 2019 even with the high BABIP. Giolito was one of the best starters in 2019 and is better than any of the Twins starters. Dylan Cease, another top 100 prospect made his MLB debut last year and showed flashes of what he can do. Kopech is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and will be back for 2020. He was already on a mound a few months ago in Arizona and touched 100 a couple of times in a game. The White Sox are loaded with elite young talent. Some took a step forward in 2019 and there is more on the way for 2020.
I don’t know who wins the AL Central but any one of the Twins, Indians and White Sox can and I believe they all fall somewhere in the 85 to 95 win range.
White Sox predictions are largely based on belief that older players won’t decline, and that young players, many of which have never played a full season, will be high-caliber players in first full season.
While I think they will be in play for 21, that’s a lot of speculation for players to thrive immediately. It rarely works like that. Guys are going to struggle next year.
…and yet the Twins have better pitching this year than last, when they won 101 games
Im not sure how you figure that..
better pitching generally equals more games. simple math.
metal lapse there, *tends to win you more games
Easy.
The Twins lost:
Gibson, Parker and Perez who combined for 0.9 WAR last year
They replaced them with:
Hill, Bailey and Clippard who combined for 4.7 WAR last year.
That’s an increase of 3.8 WAR
So the Twins pitching is better, right?
First of all Clippard is not a starter and the Twins already have a good pen. Two, Perez was mediocre at best in the second half as was Gibson.
WAR by Twins starting pitchers in the two halves of last season.
1st half
Odorizzi 2.2
Berrios 2.7
Perez 1.9
Pineda 1.4
Gibson 1.7
2nd half
Odorizzi 2.1
Berrios 1.7
Perez 0,0
Pineda 1.3
Gibson 0.8
Dobnak 0.7
Odorizzi and Pineda were fairly consistent both halfs of the season. But Gibson and Perez dropped off the radar in the second half of the season and it was largely Pineda and Dobnak who picked up the slack in the second half.
As Clippard is a pitcher his addition counts as improvement to our pitching. He replaces Parker/Dyson from our pen in my comparison of additions & subtractions.
Why are only the 2nd half stats relevent? Are we only playing the final 81 games in 2020?
Gibson and Perez being mediocre proves my point. We replaced them with better pitchers,hence my conclusion that our pitching staff is better this year.
Twins have one of the 10 worst rotations in MLB heading into 2020 according to projections. Pineda is serving a suspension until mid May and Hill is injured and might not pitch in 2020. At the very least he is out until the 2nd half.
You happen to have a link to the projection(s) you’re using?
I guess you didn’t see Hill’s FIP. Bailey is a #5 starter and Clippard isn’t an elite reliever. Berrios will likely only get worse abd Odorizzi could too.
You mean you don’t know projections?? There’s only one right? Lot of sox fans just making stuff up
Hill won’t be pitching for the majority of 2020 coming off of arm surgery. As good as people think he is, no one knows how a 40 year old will pitch after major arm surgery. Bailey had an outlier season. He was 1-14 in 2018, then 13-9 in 2019. 2019 featured and ERA and xFIP well over 4. Couple that with him pitching in age year 36 doesn’t look good for 2020. Tyler Clippard’s WAR was 0.7, his ERA was a respectable 2.90, but his xFIP was a whopping 4.94 which means he was more lucky than good, plus he’ll be 35 yoa. Pineda coming off off suspension is a wildcard. Odorizzi took a turn after the AllStar break and did not perform well, including a 7.37 ERA in July. The Twins have offensive firepower, but their pitching will keep other teams in games. Twins fans think the “Bomba Squad” will get them somewhere, but good pitching beats good hitting everyday of the week.
“Hill won’t be pitching for the majority of 2020 coming off of arm surgery. As good as people think he is, no one knows how a 40 year old will pitch after major arm surgery.”
1.4 WAR in 13 starts as a 39 year old. The surgery makes him a wildcard, but he wasn’t signed to carry the team.
“Bailey had an outlier season.”
A healthy season with peripherals at/near pre-Tommy John levels? Sweet sounds like reason for optimism.
“Couple that with him pitching in age year 36 doesn’t look good for 2020”
Luckily he’ll be pitching in “age year” 34 in 2020, so you don’t have to couple that.
“Odorizzi took a turn after the AllStar break and did not perform well, including a 7.37 ERA in July.”
Huh, that 2.86 August and that 3.27 September ERA certainly makes it appear as if he didn’t take a turn and did perform well after the All-Star break. You have any leftover cherries from picking that July split?
“good pitching beats good hitting everyday of the week.”
Except when it doesn’t. There was just an entire World Series of counter-examples.
Literally take 60 seconds of your life and look it up for yourself so you’re finally educated
…and yet the Twins have better pitching this year than last, when they won 101 games
They need pitching. White Sox have improved. Blue Jays have improved. Angels have improved. Rangers have improved. Arguably the Rays have improved. Yankees will own Minnesota. 90-94 wins seems appropriate.
The rays, angels, and blue jays really didn’t do much. You could definitely make a case for LA and how they did improve with rendon and lower class starters. The blue jays and rays have not made a ton of moves. Ryu and his injury history can go to Toronto, sure. He won’t last more than 2 seasons there and the rays will probably still figure out how to be a contender with that team.
Have all teams I mentioned improved? YES.
Here’s some basic info for you: Twins won 101 games in 2019. If half the league (7) win 1 more game than last year in matchups against the Twins, and the Twins maintain the same record against the other half, the Twins will win 94 games.
To reiterate, Twins need pitching. Please don’t give me the garbage of other teams “not doing much”. Twins needed to bolster starting pitching and bullpen. They’ve done neither. However, Twins should still win the AL Central because it’s the weakest and worst division in baseball.
The Blue Jay’s re-worked their entire rotation. Biggio, Guerrero, and Bichette are legit all-stars.
Yankeepride until they become all-stars they aren’t “legit all-stars”. They have to do it for the first time to suggest that. They have the potential, yes. But they aren’t legit all-stars. If you’re going to come in with a comment please think before you post.
@WereAllJustGuestsHere
You’re an idiot. Take a look at their production. The only reason they weren’t all-stars is because they didn’t play the whole season. If you’re going to attempt to make an insult, at least have knowledge of the game.
How many all-star games have Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr and Cavan Biggio played at the major league level?
Answer: zero
You did not say “future all-star” or “potential all-star”. You said legit all-star which might not be true for all three players. Jays fans are hopeful but we have learned that some things do not turn out the way we want it. Please stop. You have no clue what you are talking about and have no business owning an electronic device. Even your name calling lacks insight. Your kids table is down the hall and to the left.
We may never know if Mlb changes the ball this year or keep the same ball from last. If ball stays the same lots of homers everywhere, but if the ball changes back look for more outs in baseball.
More than 27 per game?
Good enough to not get swept by the Yankees in the first round?
The real over/under is the length of games. So many high scoring affairs and pitching changes. Those games will never end.
It’s like you knew it was coming
I picked 90-94. The division will be more competitive, I think, so there’s not going to be quite as many freebie games to pad the win total.
It all depends on the pitching. They’re going to score runs just fine. Sure, there’s some regression one can expect, but they’ll still have one of the better lineups in the game. Bullpen meltdowns cost them dearly last year and they still won 100 games. I think there’s a lot of room to for the pitching staff to “unregress” to offset some offensive regression.
Wrong. Not sure where you are coming up with this. Bullpen meltdowns DIDN’T cost them dearly last year. They were ranked like 8th or 9th best in the league.
I agree on the win total. Even after accounting for the happy ball, some of their players had years that far exceeded what was expected of them, so I expect an offensive regression. As for the pitching, if they’re throwing out the extremely hittable Homer Bailey, it’s nothing but good news for the rest of the division.
This team has more pitching than people think. With that lineup, they won’t need a full rotation of shutdown starters in order to win games. I think this team will be active at the deadline to add for the stretch run if the need is there. As much as the indians and white sox fail to admit it, twins are the class of the AL central.
They REALLY need Dobnak and Thorpe to step forward this season. Minus his start against the Yankees Dobnak was pretty good for a rookie. Thorpe is a notoriously slow starter when changing levels. He wasn’t bad last year but mediocre. He has the stuff to be a good lefty starter. Pineda will be back by the end of May.
Berrios
Odorizzi
Bailey
Pineda (by May)
Hill (early August)
1-3 that’s pretty solid but not at all elite. That’s why they gotta go out and get a guy like gray or even Syndergaard. I’m a twins fan and with that rotation they’ll get absolutely clobbered or unless their young guys can really make an impact at this level.
Bailey isn’t solid. He had a bit of a rebound last year and still had an ERA in the mid-4’s. In the four seasons before that, he was giving up at least 11H/9IP. He hasn’t been solid in a while.
Fax I guess but I’m almost positive he had a good second half with Oakland
Personally I’ve never have been impressed by Bailey. But Pineda is a much better pitcher than Bailey and will move up to #3 in May when he comes back.
To get Syndergaard will cost them dearly. They tried pretty hard to get Wheeler. Then they tried to get RYU, and even Bumgarner, which would have been an improvement but they came up empty handed.
Yeah, but you just anointed him “elite.” Lots of luck.
lol @ Homer Bailey being a #3 in 2020 !!!!!!
They are good enough to win their division by 8 games…and get swept in the 1st round again.
We have seen the formula-and absolute stud starting staff that can come in to relief, and really good back end guys to finish.
I don’t know if they will get swept again this time.
I don’t think they’ll win the division by 8 games either.
I’m bearish. I have nothing against them but feel like they played out of their mind last year. I expect a lot of regression from all facets of the club.
It’s funny how quickly people forget that the Twins were a losing ballclub in 2018. They gained 23 games year-over-year, but all Twins fans are saying it’s absolutely impossible for the White Sox to do the same when the Sox were at least as aggressive in this offseason as the Twins last year and have more talent coming up. I’m not saying it’s likely and I think the JD signing all but seals the division again, but if the Twins can shoot so high in a year (and the Cubs do the same a few years before), why is there no chance in hell for the White Sox to do the same?
Because the twins off-season moves and what they got on the market were absolutely insane. New managers and rowson helped a lot and our young core players blossomed into what everyone wants out of a prospect.
I don’t think many people are saying there is no chance, just that it’s unlikely. Very different things.
The Twins run differential in 2018 was negative 37. The White Sox run differential in 2018 was negative 192. Pythag says the Twins should have won 77 games in 2018, they won 78. The White Sox should have won and did win 62 games.
In 2019, the White Sox had a negative 124. They won 72 games while Pythag said they only should have won 68.
The 2018 Twins who were only an okay team were way better than the 2018 and 2019 White Sox. Im not saying the White Sox haven’t improved but they have a way bigger hill to climb than the Twins did. And a say that as a Twins fan who was shocked that the 2019 Twins won more than 82ish.
It would not surprise me at all if the White Sox were a .500 team in 2019, but to go from one a bottom 10 team to a top 10 team….I just don’t see it happening.
Darn typos
You guys just watch. I’m a twins fan and I have little faith in our rotation right now. BUT we are still 2 months away from spring training and the twins still have plenty of time to swing a trade for a quality starter or two. There is an eye popping need for a quality starter and I’m just saying, they have the prospects and talent, so it all depends on what team asks for and what they are willing to give up
No doubt they *could* swing a trade for a good starter. Berrios is solid, but the Twins would be a lot better if they could find someone better than Odorizzi to be their #2. Problem is that such a guy is likely to cost at least Graterol (and several other pieces); depending on the guy and the contract, the demand might be Kiriloff or even Lewis. The pitching market is crazy right now with the contracts handed out this offseason, so any big upgrades aren’t going to come cheap.
They can give a bunch of top 12-30 prospects away and get a quality starter. I agree the odo probably shouldn’t be a two but he proved a lot last year.
Yeah, name the last ToR pitcher who was not coming off an injury season who was traded for only mid-level prospects. Maybe they could pry Price loose depending on how much salary they take on, but it’s kind of ridiculous to think your farm is so good that you can get an ace or #2 for guys you won’t miss at all.
then you weren’t REALLY watching closely. Pineda, Berrios and Odorizzi were solid last season and have at least 1.3 WAR all year. That’s not bad to start. Dobnak took a step forward last season which helped after Gibson and Perez dropped off the cliff from the first half of the season.
Pineda, Berrios, and Odorizzi all had xFIP’s over 4 last year. They won a lot of high scoring games. Hence, better lucky than good. The Twins have a fearsome lineup, but pitching wins games and the Twins lack pitching. Everybody sees that, except Twins fans of course.
4 of the 5 white sox starters had xFIP over 4 last year with 2 of them being in the NL.
Stop it, the White sox lineup isn’t going to be close to the Twins this season. The Twins have 6 guys in their lineup bow that hit 30 HR’s and will have the best lineup in baseball. they can field an entire lineup of guys that had a wRC+ over 110 last season.
Can somebody please pin Kleppy12’s comment before you even read this article.
Not even close to best lineup. JD will continue to decline, Cruz is overdue one, Sano is striking out when not hitting homers, Kepler is a platoon hitter, Garver is a juiced ball wonder.,
What a horrible take
What else do you want to make up while you’re dreaming ?
Not enough pitching to be a real threat, maybe 90 wins
They increased there pitching from last year, in which they won 101 games. More war with this new staff.
They got better on offense, defense, starting pitching and relief pitching.
Only true thing hurting them is a better division. Twins should win about 95 and the division. Indians second with almost 90 and Sox third with mid to low 80s
Crazy thing is the Twins still have a lot of talent in the minors they will be able to move for a SP or 2.
White Sox are on the come up & not quite there yet. The difference between the comparison of the Twins & White Sox come ups are that the Indians were on their way down as the Twins were coming up. The Twins are not going anywhere as the White Sox come up.
Gray really would be a great fit for the Twins. I think Shark too. Keep an eye on Cueto if he proves himself healthy or Fulmer for that same scenario.
Still a lot of holes to be filled for teams thru ST
They are a fantastic regular season team. Not so much playoff though. They don’t have the starters to match up in a winner take all series.
The Twins problem is there are only 2 bad teams, in AL central. I could see all three teams beating up each other to a 500 record against the top 3 teams. There will only be 4 teams that are bad in AL Seattle, Baltimore, KC, and Detroit. All more competitive teams mean fewer wins for Twins in 2020. Twins 20 and 10 against kc and Detriot 500 other 2 teams.
It doesn’t matter how many games they win; they will crap the bed against the NYY like they always do.
Twins aka ‘Piranhas’ usually manage to play better than they look on paper. Must have something to do with areas like their player evaluation, player development and coaching. It’s an organazational thing. But they may have missed the mark this time picking up Clippard. He will be their downfall.
They are “win the division easily” good. But idk if they are WS good. Very close though
they aren’t “win the division easy” with that rotation. you’re banking on Berrios (stud), an older Rich Hill (couldn’t do it in warm southern CA but will stay healthy in MN after coming in in June?), Pineda & Odorizzi (LOL). nah dawg that ain’t “very close” to WS. They will be lucky to claim a Wildcard spot in 2020.
Berrios isn’t remotely a stud.
They need David Price
No way unless the Red Sox are willing to pickup 2/3ish of the remainder of his salary.
With three teams competing for it, AL central is no longer the weakest division in baseball, so let’s stop saying that. The Twins and Indians are good teams and the White Sox are gonna be good.
Of course I want any of Ray, E-Rod, Darvish, etc, but I really don’t understand how C. Smith or Archer could be out of our reach…
I mean, after signing Donaldson, Rooker and Gordon are now almost certain to be dealt, why wait for their value to depreciate even further, now’s the time.
Why not Rooker and Enlow to the Marlins for Smith?? Seems fair to me.
Haha, lol at these comments. The world ain’t ready for this young White Sox team. I love it!
Can’t wait for them to win 82 games
I think around 85 wins is realistic for them (which is probably all it will take to win the division). I know a drop off of 15 games is a lot, but it seemed like everything fell into place them last year. It’s clear the talent is there, but it’s also young (or in Cruz’s case very old), the rotation needs to add an arm or two, and I feel that the competition within the division will be tougher. With the additions the White Sox made and a healthy rotation for the Indians, I think that wins will be harder to come by for them. As an Indians fan, I’m happy to have some in division competition again – and wish the fans of the Central the best of luck this year!
With three above .500 teams, 85 wins will not be enough to win the AL Central.
You have to put things in perspective. Lots of Twins had big comeback/career type years last year (that’s why we were able to scoop them up on cheap, one year deals). So , take all those 2019 player’s stats and compare them to the same player’s stats from 2018. Add them all up for some team numbers. It isn’t pretty. So, splitting the middle between the two would be fair. They will be falling back, whether the pitching numbers are identical to last year’s or not.
You have to put things in perspective. Lots of Twins had big comeback/career type years last year (that’s why we were able to scoop them up on cheap, one year deals). So , take all those 2019 player’s stats and compare them to the same player’s stats from 2018. Add them all up for some team numbers. It isn’t pretty. So, splitting the middle between the two would be fair. They will be falling back, whether the pitching numbers are identical to last year’s or not.
I think Twins win the AL Central and play Yanks in ALCS. Lose in 7 games
How good are the Twins? Apart from what will probably be one of the best lineups in baseball and having a solid bullpen, their team isn’t going to earn high marks in fielding, base running or starting pitching.
If the Twins were playing in a tougher division, I’d pick them to finish closer to .500, but playing in the still very bad AL Central, they’ll probably win 90 games or so and put themselves into a position to compete for the division. I believe everything hinges on the White Sox’s rotation. Does Cease take a step forward. How good is Kopech when he returns?
Without better arms at the front of the rotation, the Twins are very unlikely to advance even if they do make the playoffs.
Matras,
Aside from perhaps Sano, name another defensive weakness on the team? I think Rosario will bounce back, Arraez is untested, and Garver keeps improving, so where is this defensive weakness you speak of? Buxton? Kepler? Polanco? Gonzalez? Donaldson? I think the defense is pretty solid.
Rosario seems to keep declining on defense. And Polanco is definitely a negative at SS. He’s not as bad as he was in 2019 playing on a bad ankle, but he’s not good defensively. Arraez is an unknown. I think he’ll be an ok 2B but wouldn’t surprise me if he’s below average. He will definitely be worse than Schoop defensively.
No clue how Sano will be at saving bad throws but otherwise he will likely be fine. He was not good at 3B though even though he could make a great play here and there.
Polanco is just as bad as he was by UZR standings (which is to say virtually unplayable)
DRS suddenly showed a miracle spike in his defense, but it’s totally inconsistent with his history and other metrics meaning DRS is probably a poor indicator for last year.
It’s well known that Polanco’s arm is far too weak to play shortstop. This forces Polanco to be over-aggressive and rush his fielding which leads to terrible error rates.
I’m not going to ignore playing most of the year on a bad ankle that required surgery. You can do as you wish.
I believe he’s below average. I don’t think he’s the worst. He was the worst last year though, but was playing injured.
Polanco’s range has never been an issue (including last year).
But, hey, you can go with your gut if you’d like, twins33.
I’ll go with the cumulative stats compiled over the past several years, baseball analysts, and all of the scouting reports on Polanco for the past 6-8 years or so.
I think it’s clear to everyone the Twins are a weak fielding team with a weak rotation. The Yankees exposed them in the playoffs last year. The White Sox aren’t tanking anymore, so it’s going to be tough for the Twins to repeat what they did last year. The Indians will take a step back IF they sell anymore of their top players.
The twins rotation was far better than the white Sox rotation last year and above average in all of baseball. Infield defense is average, outfield defense is elite. Saying those aspects of the team are weak is just false
Uh, you might want to stay up on what other teams are doing this offseason. The White Sox were tanking last year, and have since completely overhauled their starting rotation. Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Gonzalez, and Lopez have a much higher ceiling than the Twins rotation. The White Sox also have Michael Kopech re-joining the rotation at some point. He has ace stuff, so the Sox are much more talented in terms of starting pitching. They added enough bats with Grandal, Encarnacion, and Robert to be formidable offensively. Both teams will hit, so it comes down to pitching and defense to determine who’s better. I give the Sox an advantage in those two areas. The Sox also aren’t done dealing either.
I follow plenty close. They added Keuchel and Gonzalez who both are old and just as likely to be bad as good (similar to hill and Bailey). Cease and Lopez were terrible last year and nothing suggests they’re going to magically be good now. Kopech is a mystery. The offenses are objectively not equal. And just because you give the white Sox the edge in pitching and defense doesn’t make it true
So you’re betting on Berrios taking another step forward and becoming a legitimate ace? It’s not happening. I can promise you that.
Berrios is a 3 pitch pitcher. There are no aces who only have 3 pitches. Berrios would be a great #2, but he’s no ace. Odorizzi had a career year last year, but he didn’t even qualify for the pitching stat leaders because he didn’t throw enough innings. I’d argue Odorizzi is suspect to repeat given years of decline prior to last season, and coupled with his inability to pitch more than 5 innings, I certainly wouldn’t want him as the 2-slot for the rotation.
Beyond that, you have Homer Bailey as the 3rd starter when he’s really a questionable rotation guy, period. Pineda is unavailable for the first 40 games for his PED suspension and Hill a question to ever return to form. After those guys, the Twins have a bunch of potentially AAAA-caliber starters.
There’s a reason why pretty much everybody who follows baseball has been harsh on the Twins lack of pursuit of “impact pitching.”
I don’t think Sano at 1B is going to be a significant liability. Arraez is known as below average (at best) defensively and Jorge Polanco is the worst starting shortstop in baseball. So the middle infield for the Twins will be awful. Josh Donaldson is aging and his defense at 3B is not going to be much above average. You think Rosario will bounce back in LF? Wishful thinking aside, I’m not sure what evidence you might have to support your position. I don’t think he will. Rosario has packed on quite a bit of weight and that’s cut his sprint speed a lot while his aloof play in LF was the source of errors and bad routes to balls. Byron Buxton is exceptional in CF, but only for the 80 games a year he’s available. After Buxton, Kepler is serviceable in CF, but the Twins usually play the below average Jake Cave in the position when Buxton is out.
This adds up to a very bad middle infield and a mediocre at best outfield across the total games played.
Twins look they have a great offense–that’s at risk of regressing from last year–and pretty terrible starting pitching. Can they make the playoffs in a weak division? Yeah. Maybe. But they have zero chance of advancing in the playoffs. They just can’t matchup with the league’s best teams when it comes to pitching.
They have definitely built a good team. I can see them easily back in that playoffs again. If the White Sox turn out to be good then i can see it coming down between those 2. Just wish my Orioles built a team like they do. Idk what the hell we are doing. Maybe our front should take notes
While I dont think they will win as many games as last season they are still in a very good position to win the division again this season.
Cleveland without 2 of their top 3 starters from the past several years and obvious offensive issues are not the threat they were even in to the middle of last season.
The white Sox should trend upwards and make it interesting in the division this season.
The Royals and Tigers will like fight for the cellar in the Division.
Twins aren’t going anywhere in the postseason with that top 3 rotation. Maybe berrios can match up, but the Twins use Odorizzi as if they are afraid to use him. the minute he hits trouble around 5th inning he gets yanked. Playoff offenses have him out by the 4th inning. Twins will need a serious upgrade to the front of that rotation to advance deep in postseason
I’m thinking 92 wins. The rotation before June scares me. They need to trade for a number three or better starting pitching. Then I’ll feel better. I don’t think they will though. Definitely my biggest worry about the team. I think until June, it’s a worse rotation than last year which is saying something because I hated the Perez signing. He was way better than I expected the first month or two.
The offense will regress but still be very, very good. Kepler and Garver specifically changed their approach and improved their pitch recognition so they should see less of a regression than others might. Adding Donaldson over Cron is a gigantic improvement offensively and I was a fan of healthy Cron. The offense improved. Donaldson might be able to make up for all the regression.
Like the Angels all the hitters and zero pitching.
Let’s not forget they won 101 with 3/5 of the rotation they have returning and 2 less than quality seasons by Gibson and Perez. Pineda made his season debut later on around the time Perez started to fizzle. Berrios and Odorizzi aren’t a bad combo at the top. Would I like to see a big arm? Of course. But they did win last year no reason they shouldn’t this year.
Some wild speculation in these comments – The Twins are all going to suck and the white Sox are all going to take off. Just be reasonable. Odds are the twins and Indians will battle it out for the division with the Sox next in line. The twins absolutely improved their roster and so did the white Sox. Less than 5% chance they make up 30 games on the twins
There is a more than a 50% chance the Twins will regress on offense. Plus signing a bunch of pitchers over 35 years old, and relying on them is crazy. The Twins have had 1 great year in the last 4 (59, 85, 78, and 101 wins last 4) and Twins fans think they are the class of the American League. Utterly ridiculous.
No twins fan thinks they’re the class of the AL. Class of the AL Central? Probably, because on paper they are
They hit a bunch of home runs ONE year. That doesn’t make them the “class” of the division. If they repeat what they did, then sure. The Indians have the best pitching overall (so far). The Sox have the best balance and upside with elite young talent. Anything can happen, but my money’s on the Sox to win 88 games and rake the division. Call me biased if you want, but they’ve done enough to improve dramatically this offseason. They’re an elite bat or pitcher away from contending for a world championship. The Twins and Indians, not so much.
Anyone who feels certain about how the Central will flesh out should be on a plane to Vegas, not posting on this site.
CWS fans are understandably eager to reap the rewards from years of sacrifice and suffering. Personally, I’d be satisfied to see them finish with a winning record and no serious injuries or regressions. Anything beyond that is gravy.
Numerical data is constantly cited to suggest last year was a lucky outlier for the Twins. But what about the managerial and coaching changes? What about last year’s introduction of some FA veterans onto the roster to help new coaching show the young guys how it’s done? These were real contributions that are difficult to quantify. It is not outrageous to imagine the new crop of FA signings have some wisdom for the young pitchers. Keep in mind this roster is essentially a young one which hasn’t been to many battles. The guys being brought in have been there, and so I can imagine another year of even more improvement. My outrageous prediction is one of either Graterol, Duran or Balazovic breaks out of training camp as a #4 or #5 starter and slots up to 3 by end of season…