After a lengthy and complicating matchmaking process, the Twins have reportedly come away with elite veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson. It’s a momentous occasion for the Minnesota organization, which is looking to fend off the Indians and White Sox to repeat as AL Central champ.
Though a big strike for Donaldson wasn’t necessarily the club’s very top choice, it became a priority when righty Zack Wheeler decided to head to the Phillies. The Donaldson contract is quite a different proposition in many regards: he’s an older position player, while Wheeler is a younger pitcher. But both players come with similar mixes of lofty ceilings and fairly significant risk factors. And they’ll play for generally equivalent money, with the far senior Donaldson receiving one less guranteed season.
Guaranteeing four years and $92MM to a 34-year-old player is virtually without precedent. As we recently explored, it’s an expansion of the commitments we’ve seen of late to other high-end older players. But the Twins are doing it with eyes wide open. And Donaldson is more than just a high-quality veteran.
If Donaldson can stay healthy and hold back father time just a bit, there’s good reason to hope for massive production. He posted a 132 wRC+ last year and will add yet more pop to an already potent lineup. And Donaldson was somewhere between good and excellent with the glove, depending upon whom you ask. That allows the Twins to unlock yet more value from this signing, as they’ll improve their overall glovework by shifting Miguel Sano over to first base.
That said, there’ll always be some level of trepidation regarding Donaldson’s age and recent history of leg issues. 34 in September, Donaldson may not have lost much to this point. But it’s tougher to overcome the physical ailments that do arise and we have seen plenty of players run into relatively steep declines. Of at least as much concern is the track record from the two seasons prior to his platform campaign. While he was healthy in, Donaldson was limited to 165 total contests over 2017-18 owing mostly to a lingering calf injury.
So … how do you grade this signing from the Twins’ perspective? (Poll link for app users.)
throwinched10
Kepler
Polanco
Cruz
Rosario
Donaldson
Garver
Sano
Arraez
Buxton
wow!
Moneyballer
Yeah the order needs fixing but its the right idea. Sano will be hitting much higher than what you have him. His breakout last year will seem tame to his breakout this year!
throwinched10
I dunno though. Maybe one spot higher but Garver also. roke out and make.more consistent contact if I’m not mistaken. Sano wont be hitting ahead of any of the top 5 I don’t think.
throwinched10
I dunno though. Maybe one spot higher but Garver also. broke out and makes more consistent contact if I’m not mistaken. Sano wont be hitting ahead of any of the top 5 I don’t think.
kleppy12
I think Polanco ends up hitting 7th, with Arraez or Kepler hitting 8th and the other hitting lead off depending on if its verse a lefty or a righty.
crumpy24
Kepler will bat leadoff with Polanco hitting 2..
apbadogs
Yeah, Kepler ain’t hitting 8th.
twinsfan368
Kepler
Polanco
Nelly
Eddie
Donaldson
Sano
Garvsauce
Arraez
Buck
maybe we can trade Eddie for jon gray. We need a starter to put us over the hump and by that I mean get passed the Yankees in the first round
hyraxwithaflamethrower
I think you need better than Jon Gray to do that. Cole>Berrios. Severino>Odorizzi. You need someone who is truly an ace, not just solid to be a factor in the playoffs.
macstruts
An ace helps, but you don’t need one. Last decade, the Red Sox, Royals and Cardinals all won a World Series without an ace.
It’s a bumper sticker slogan, and like all bumper sticker slogans, it a position that is not based on thorough analysis.
BartoloHRball
This is usually true….until it’s game 7 and it’s winner take all. Those situations are why teams invest in guys like deGrom, Scherzer, Verlander, etc.
macstruts
Who won game seven last year?
Anyway, even going back to last year, the winning teams scored 5, 12, 4, 8, 7, 7, 6.
EVERYTHING is easier with an ace, but the game of baseball still comes down to one thing, scoring more runs than your opponent and there are many many ways to do that.
realsox
Twinsfan368: You need more than a starter to get past the Yankees in the first round. You need to win the division or get a wildcard spot first of all. Your comment takes that for granted, but there’s a reason they make teams play the games on the field. If the Twins don’t beef up their rotation they are likely to lose more of them than you imagine. Donaldson makes a nice addition to a powerful lineup, but I don’t think he will be pitching many innings for a team that needs pitching more than hitting.
macstruts
RealSox, You’ll need to score more runs than the Yankees to beat the Yankees.
I never understood why so many people think there is only one way to do that.
Ejemp2006
Royals traded for Cueto mid season and he was an absolute team carrying ace. These Twins can do the same thing when the time comes because the Central is all but wrapped up.
Finlander
Sounds like you are describing last year’s Yankees.
Finlander
Twins and Yanks played a pretty epic series against each other last summer. Ex-Twin Aaron Hicks squeaked it out for the Yanks, but for all, that was a very entertaining and competitive series, so fun to watch. It is too bad that competitiveness didn’t carry over to the post season. But that series is the flavor that should be expected of these two heavyweight lineups. Gonna be fun. (BTW, my previous post was for realsox, sorry, I have a dumb smartphone)
johnnyfang
Rich Hill, when healthy (I know), is an Ace.
bigsombrero
“maybe we can trade Eddie for jon gray” – have you been drinking too much Minnesota Homer Juice? Eddie’s value is virtually zero to a rebuilding team, and the rest of the teams that consider themselves in contention won’t be interested in getting rid of a starter. Eddie’s maximum value rests right where he is, the Twins outfield.
You want Gray? Be prepared to give up at least Lewis, Larnach, or Kirloff – or possibly 2 of the 3 in a trade for him. There’s nothing wrong with being hopeful – all Twins fans want the best for our team. But Eddie for Gray is downright delusional.
Carp1679
The redsoxs stole signs and had Chris Sale…. who was an ace caliber pitcher at the time…. plus they had david price… please dont make assented comments, starting pitching is key to October
AirRaidAssassin
Did you finish High School?
Ctcutter
Bye bye Donaldson bring in the younger talent all that wait for that finally…
crumpy24
I would flip Donaldson and Rosario. Other than that the lineup looks good.
Netflix&RichHill
Donaldson is gonna hit 2nd or 3rd
Phiilies2020
Kepler
Polonco
Donaldson
Cruz
Sano
Rosario
Garver
Arraez
Buxton
Finlander
Wow does that lineup look good and dangerous! I’d consider swapping Polanco and Donaldson to tuck a switch hitter in between the row of righty power hitters (JD, Cruz, Sano) and spread potential LH hitting a bit more. With Arreaz-Buxton-Kepler hitting 8-9-1, JD would get his good RBI numbers out of the 2 spot where he likes to hit. And don’t forget switch hitting Marwin G spelling almost everybody. Oh, and Kirilloff, Lewis, Rooker and Larnach lurking in the farm. Offense is in beast mode. Importantly, the JD signing is a big part of making it so. And it greatly upgrades defense and competitive attitude too. That’s why this move gets a high grade.
Finlander
Most of the MN roster members are youthful. Players like Donaldson, Cruz, Gonzalez have been through the wars already and are teaching the Twins youngsters what it takes to battle and win. The Twins signed JD for this just as much as for his pure numbers, as they did Cruz and Marwin the year before. Don’t overlook the effect of the MN veteran signings last year (Cruz, Marwin, Cron, Schoop) on the winning 2019 season. It is hard to put a dollar value on that. They doubled down with MVP recipient JD. They will get value beyond his “age-affected numbers”. And IMHO, that’s why they should triple down with a move for a pitcher like Sale. Their starters haven’t been really battle tested other than Hill…
lambeau gang
This reminds me of how us Brewers fans felt about our lineup last year when we added Grandal. I’d expect some regression from Garver and Kepler, and Buxton is always a wild card. Aging may show with JD & Cruz at some point also. However, it does look solid at this point.
twinsfan368
Regression ain’t the right word. Garver will only get better and max will probably stay the same
chesteraarthur
Well you said so, so obviously that’s fact
Chris Koch
So a 28 year old who never hit more than 20HRs in a season until hitting 31 last season will get better? As a Brewer Fan let me tell you story of Jon Lucroy who had a career year age 30 and has since not hit that many HRs the following 3 seasons combined.
Garver’s 2019 is an absolute Ceiling season and there is nothing but regression coming to his stat line in 2020.
BackFat
Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
heater
Garver got better because he got consistent playing time. He thrived with a routine.
Finlander
Check his HR/ABs. Babe Ruth ratio. I agree, seems an outlier. But…MN hired a couple of coaches last year (along with the AL manager of the year Baldelli) who seemed to work some magic with both the hitters and the pitchers. Wes Johnson is still there as pitching coach, but the Marlins snagged hitting coach James Rowson. How much either contributed to the team’s unexpected improvement remains to be dissected and analyzed, but I am guessing it is substantial. Perhaps that could partially explain Garver’s power surge. Rowson’s new boss Derek Jeter might have an opinion on that…lol. I don’t think Garver will maintain a homer every 10-11 ABs. But I think he has learned enough to remain a valuable bat, and he certainly won’t regress to Lucroy levels. It is fair to ask about hitting regression with the loss of Rowson.
Finlander
Towson may have been hired there the previous year (2018), if so I stand corrected and apologize. But I still maintain there was new coaching prevalent in the system and taking root with some of the younger players. Regression should be normalized with any league-wide downturn related to manufacture of the baseball next year.
AirRaidAssassin
Garver never got consistent at bats. He had a great year last year in his first full taste of full time duty. What about this game screms regresion other than MLB fixing the baseball which means numbers will be down across the board. Garver wasnt exactly hitting wall scrapers last year
Alareno
Also, the ball was juiced with a capital J last year; probably won’t be this year. Some of last year’s dingers will be warning track cans of corn this year.
AirRaidAssassin
OK so everyone played with the juiced ball last year. There will be warning track fly balls for every team. People hit homeruns against the twins that will be warning track fly balls this year. if the meta was 35 homeruns last year, it might be 30 homeruns this year. It effects everyone the same. Whats the big deal.
Alareno
Subtle reference to the greater importance of pitching in 2020.
Supporting pundits and commenters who are pointing out that the Twins needed to bolster their pitching staff rather than add a swing-from-the-heels basher.
See todd76 and Finlander comments a few spots down the thread from here.
AirRaidAssassin
The Twins were in on every single free agent ace pitcher outside of Cole and Strasburg.
Wheelers wife was from the East Coast and made it known that was his preference.
Bumgarner chose the Dbacks and their lowbal offer because he had a horse farm there
WE were never paying the crazy prices on Strasburg and Cole and there are only a half dozen at most MLB teams equipped to take on deals like that and none of them reside in the AL Central so I’m not worried.
Twins have tons of prospects capital and 2.5 months to opening day to add a pitcher.
AirRaidAssassin
Ball was juiced which means the pitchers on the Twins should be better as well.
thetruth 2
It definitely is wow, a platoon bat, a 40 year old, a declining 34 year old with recent significant missed time due to injuries, a guy who can’t stay healthy… 2019 was an outlier.
twinsfan368
U literally said the worst case scenario to possibly happen
throwinched10
Cruz keeps producing. The numbers don’t lie!
HubertHumphrey
Aside from Buxton on the IL, and Jake Cave in center, this lineup is correct.
throwinched10
Well played.
todd76
Can Josh pitch???
Finlander
No, but Sano has an absolute gun for an arm, hate to waste it at 1B. Twins secret weapon two-way player?
AirRaidAssassin
Josh is an elite player. Twins got him. Pitching staff was fine last year. Numbers dont lie.
Vin Scully
Too much money for too many years. But he will help the Twins this year. So I scored it a C.
DodgerNation
Donaldson has to be one of my favorite players. He plays his heart out and loves the game more than anyone. This deal though is going to be a very boom or bust deal. Either Donaldson puts together some really great years and doesn’t age heavily or he shows that age and becomes just average at best. It might not even be this year he shows age, but I have the feeling 2021 will be where you see it. It’s too much risk for the twins for me to give it anything more than a C.
kleppy12
I think the Twins would take two “classic” Donaldson seasons, one declining yet still slightly above average season and then one season where he’s below average. If they get that they’ll be happy, if they get more and it looks like he’ll still be good in season 5 you have him for a reasonable amount. I think those are responsible expectations but they didn’t get a steal or anything so I gave them a B, probably would have been a B- if it was an option.
ChiSox_Fan
Yes, but they had to do something to fight off the White Sox.
Les Chesterfield
Lol. King of the off season
AirRaidAssassin
White Sox finished 29 games behind the Twins last year
Mark S
Twins improved 23 wins between 2018 and 2019. With the wholesale improvements made by the White Sox, is it outside the realm of possibility that they could make a similar jump? Is it also not possible that the Twins will regress some after career years by many of their hitters? Not hating or trolling. Let’s be a little sensible.
AirRaidAssassin
The White Sox would need to make up 29 games from last year. They havent made up 29 game on the Twins. The twins have gotten better and the sox have gotten better. Maybe the Sox can catch the rebuilding Indians
apbadogs
Money is in line with his last two years, the length is the problem.
rizdakc99
Reminds me of Scott Rolen going to the Reds at the same age. He proceeded to have a good age-35 season and then was pretty much done.
AirRaidAssassin
OUr window is open now and for the next 4 to 5 years, This signing is fine. You act as if Donaldson has a long history injury. Thats just not the case
jd396
Well, the thread about the Twins being pessimistic had nothing but people crying about the Pohlads not spending, so at this point what might end up be overspending on a good free agent is at least something…
Bart
I give it a D because of Donaldsons age and his four years plus guaranteed contract. This is a contract that can look bad this season.
Moneyballer
Thank you for writing your thoughts, back to the real world.
baseballpun
“Twins never spend big!”
*Twins spend big*
“Twins spend too much!”
twinsfan368
Lol
jd396
Cheap Pohlads won’t spend on anybody at all! It’s outrageo—Stupid Pohlads handcuffed the team for years approving this ridiculous Mauer extension!
twinsfan368
The Mauer contract is expired and over
Ctcutter
I agree too much $$$$$ for an old guy rather spend that kinda $$$$$ on a younger player
AtlSoxFan
Let’s ignore this season for a minute.
The real risk is you have an aging player with a significant injury history here.
If production tanks in years 3 and 4, well, thats a BIG chunk of team payroll tied up in a useless asset. A team like NY or LA can absorb that easily, if unhappily. A team like MIN? The negative impact would be outsized compared to many other teams.
Chris Koch
what injury is significant? A Calf Strain in 2017 returning in 2018 and a dead arm for 2 weeks?
Meanwhile there are posters who think Miguel Andujar is a legit piece to land Josh Hader even though he’s coming off Shoulder surgery to his throwing arm(the type of injury that is significant) and yet to play a game since said surgery.
Hmm, Calf Strain or Shoulder surgery to throwing arm?
Ducey
The calf strain wiped out 110 games. The dead arm was for two months. He played thru it somewhat but was throwing like Tom Brady his last few starts.
We dont know the cause of the dead arm (Gibby’s wonderful diagnosis) so you might get shoulder surgeryAND calf “strain” going forward.
The Twins will regret the last 1/2 of that contract.
Stealing Signs
The calf injuries were on each leg. He bounced back nicely last year but I think the term should of been 3+ an option & the buyout is way too much.
BackFat
The Twins have legitimately zero bad contracts on their books, This could end up being one, but that’s the risk you take. Pretty sure they have one of if not the richest owner in MLB. They’ll be just fine either way.
Stealing Signs
Jays have the richest owner in baseball. $26.6 billion & counting. 🙂 Can’t wait till Mookie is a Jay.
Bart
That’s Canadian dollars and it equals 2.5 mil in real US money. :p
Finlander
Exactly BackFat (what a moniker, lol!). It would be a bad contract for a team pushing or exceeding the tax penalty. Twins are financially sound for the future, with some core members affordably signed already, and the larger ones coming off the books soon. Donaldson will be 36 for all of year 3. The big market billionaire teams afraid of signing on for age 37 are crying crocodile tears. Don’t cry for the Twins, they will be very ok. 4 years, not 7. Shoulda-woulda-coulda…
Stealing Signs
@ Bart= It certainly felt that way having to listen to the ‘payroll parameters’ excuse from the owner for a decade. Thankfully 2015/16 happened & the owner clued in to how much MORE money he could make by putting a winning team on the field.
bradthebluefish
Over 6 WAR last year and can still field the ball well. Could age gracefully like Beltre.
macstruts
When you have a chance to put your foot on the throat of a division… you do it!!!
This is a great signing by the Twins. The Twins are the class of this division. They have put themselves in great position over the next two years and should be able to fend off the White Sox in the short term.
Cleveland doesn’t want to do what’s necessary, the Twins do.
mecousinvinny
Very good post — white sox wont be a factor — not enough starting pitching — after Nellie retires JD can DH some also — Twins can add more starting pitching at the deadline — I see Twins 1st Cleveland 2nd Sox 3rd KC 4th Tigers last
TommySnodgrass
White Sox don’t have enough starting pitching? An emerging Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, and a potential return of Carlos Rodon? I think they have a decent bullpen too with Aaron Bummer, Kelvin Herrera, and Alex Colome. Plus they’ve added some bats in Mazara and Grandal. I like the Sox in the Central this year.
I’ll say White Sox(1st), Indians(2nd), Twins(3rd), Tigers(4th), Royals(5th).
I don’t think the White Sox are done yet. I think they could sign one of Castellanos, Ozuna, or Puig. I have the Indians second because I think they hold onto Lindor. The Twins will finish third because I think the “Bomba Squad” was lightning in a bottle. I’ll put the Tigers fourth because I am intrigued by the quiet signings of Cron and Schoop. And I’ll put the Royals fifth because they’re the Royals.
Sorry Royals fans, but the 2020 edition of your club doesn’t appear threatening. Trust me, I am a Pirates fan, I know what a non-threatening team looks like.
garlick
White Sox staff is not that great still. Keuchel is essentially an innings eater. Gio isn’t anything more than a #5 starter at best, and Lopez was a 5+ ERA pitcher with a 5+ FIP last season. There’s still a TON of question marks on their staff. They potentially have the hitters to overcome, but it’s still a guess if they’re going to be good enough to get them over a .500 team this year. They are depending HEAVILY on a lot of players returning from Tommy John, and Cease to step up after a pretty meh rookie year. I wouldn’t put them first yet, as they have to show they can actually keep those runs off the board, as they were really poor at doing that last year, and the additions aren’t completely significant upgrades. Again, maybe, but not guaranteed there.
macstruts
I’m assuming you are a White Sox fan. Lopez had a 5.38 ERA last year and you listed him as a number two.
Gonzales isn’t very good and Keuchel is serviceable
Everyone was picking the Twins to win this division and they just added a player who finished 20th in WAR last year. .
TommySnodgrass
I clearly stated that I am a Pirates fan . . .
But, I’ll take the entire White Sox pitching staff over the Twins pitching any day.
“Everyone” picking the Twins to win the division means nothing. “Nobody” picked the Nationals to win the World Series.
We’ll see what happens when the games start rolling, but I would not be surprised one bit if the Twins offense drops off heavily. They had a nice 2019 but I think they could have a massively disappointing 2020. Nearly every player had a career year last year and that will be difficult to replicate. Especially if the ball is “un-juiced”.
garlick
“nobody picked the nationals to win the world series”
Uh, except for the nearly 15% of experts at the beginning of the season, and the odds experts in Vegas who gave them 4th highest odds in the NL to begin the season. To say nobody picked the nationals to win the WS, is not realistic to what was stated at the beginning of the season. They weren’t favorites, but it also wasn’t like they were super long shots.
The White Sox are still long shots to win their division even with the additions. They’ve had a solid season, but come on….this is apples to oranges.
dsteig
You are so wrong. You better worry about your Pirates
TommySnodgrass
That means 85% didn’t pick the Nationals to win the World Series . . .
I’m not saying the White Sox are going to win the World Series, but I’ll say more than 15% say the Sox can win the Central.
macstruts
Oh, your very last sentence.
I thought only a White Sox fan could brag about the White Sox staff.
I don’t think 15% were picking the White Sox to win the Central, but even if that were the case, I doubt 15% are picking them now.
Which is my point. If 80% of the people are picking you to win the division.. and you add Donaldson, you are putting your foot on the throat.
TommySnodgrass
Twins fans:
Stop making up random facts and figures on how amazing your team is and how everyone is picking them to win. It’s incredibly unbecoming. Don’t make your arguments on baseless numbers that hold no merit.
By the way, the Twins are going to be underwhelming this year. A regression appears more likely than improving on last years 101 wins. Their division is tougher than it looks on paper. I’ll say 91 wins.
garlick
85% when picking against 30 MLB teams…if 15% pick the White Sox to win the central, that’s against 4 other teams ONLY….getting 15% to pick you preseason to win the World Series is in NO WAY the same…..and it means there were a LOT of people that picked them to win. Come on….your point was hyperbole, and invalid. The White Sox have had a solid off season, but they may have only improved a total of 8 games, which puts them at an 80 win team. So come on, this is apples to oranges.
macstruts
Tommy. I can’t stand the Twins. They don’t care if their players take PEDs. I don’t think the club has a lot of integrity.
It’s a bad division. No one in this division would be favored to finish in second place in the AL West or AL East. Someone has to win.
I’m sure there are some people not picking the Twins to win the division, however the vast majority are. and when a team that is heavily favored to win the division adds a player that finished 20th in ML WAR last year, that’s putting the foot on the throat of the division.
That’s about as obvious and obvious can be. Good for the Twins. They want to win.
The Twins addressed two weaknesses with one signing. Sano is now playing first and Donaldson is now playiing 3rd. I give this signing an “A”.
decedawgs
As a Tigers fan I am with ya on that. By 2021 we will have a pretty talented young group heading up the rotation for years to come. 2020 though is just feeling out and getting experience. I’m a little bummed we didn’t up the deals to Schoop and Cron, should’ve offered them 4/$30M each atleast! They’re still under 30 and great contributors, would’ve been cheap insurance for the first couple of years on the young arms. We won’t be bottom 2 come 2021.
Chris Koch
White Sox rotation is better. Amazing how Cease gets tossed as a meh when his MLB debut over more IP was a full 1WAR more valuable than Jose Berrios’ debut. One that Berrios improved on by 3.5WAR his next season. If Cease does that kind of improvement he is the same value pitcher via WAR than Berrios was last season.
Keuchel is a 14-16 win pitcher, that’s improvement.
Giolito finally reached a ToR value he was projected to have since the day he was drafted.
There is this former top 20 SP named Michael Kopech to jump in #4 or 5.
Carlos Rodon maybe at 5. Now that we are at 5 it doesn’t matter. 5s suck generally.
Study up more before you comment a team’s rotation is a “meh” How’s Tampa doing with Glasnow/Snell That is essentially the talk for Giolito/Rodon/Kopech/Cease going through the minors. Keuchel won a Cy Young he’s a great pitcher for any team’s rotation.
TommySnodgrass
My argument is not hyperbole and invalid. What we have is a cluster of biased fans that tell themselves whatever they want, whatever helps them sleep better at night.
The main issue with this whole argument is the use of the word “everybody”. It’s annoying. Who is “everybody”?
The White Sox and Indians are better teams. Better pitching. Better depth. Better pools of MLB ready talent in their farm systems.
Better teams. Period.
The Twins sign one 34-year old to an expensive multi-year contract, (which will surely ruin their mid-market payroll in the years to come) and people start checking when World Series tickets go on sale at Target Field.
macstruts
The White Sox and Indians are better teams.
I completely disagree. I don’t know any prognosticator that agrees with that.
TommySnodgrass
You can’t say that you can’t stand the Twins, bad mouth the integrity of the entire franchise, call the entire division terrible, saying, “Someone has to win”, and then say that the winner of the division will be the Twins because the “Grade A signing” of Donaldson.
What an insane argument.
Show me one shred of evidence where “everyone” was picking the Twins to win the division prior to the signing of the guy who finished 20th in WAR. One shred . . . Without saying “everyone”, “everybody”, or (unnamed) “experts”.
heater
Twins offense collectively was very good. Very good approach and very good at bats. With the exception of a few slumps of course. Their make up was every bit as good as the final numbers portray. I watched almost every game and you could see a huge difference in the offensive approach. I’m more worried about losing most of the coaching staff than actual player regression this year.
heater
Here’s a fact… Twins went 50-26 against the AL central and 51-35 against all other teams. I’d say that’s pretty well rounded. And let’s not forget, Cleveland was a pretty good team in 19 as well. Will they fall from 101 wins? Likely but they were a better team than you seem to give them credit for.
TommySnodgrass
My Buccos poached Derek Shelton. I’m glad to see him in the black and gold.
But for Twins fans, do you really see an improvement on a team that won a surprising 101 wins and broke the Major League record for home runs in one season? I feel that for Minnesota, their is nowhere to go but down.
What was it that changed that makes this team so much better? Donaldson? I don’t think it’s an improvement. It’s a lateral move. They added in an area that didn’t need improvement. And spent a lot of money from that smaller Minnesota payroll to accomplish it. They needed pitching bad and they failed to reel in any pitchers.
Minnesota finished 19th in run differential in 2018, 4th in 2019. That’s an improvement. But they had a run differential that was 81 runs better on the road than at home. There is no team that scored so well on the road last year like the Twins. But it was an anomaly. That number will correct itself in 2020, and Minnesota’s record will reflect that.
Finlander
Twins pitching staff ranked well in AL last year, and they boat-anchored their two worst starters this off season. Their names may not earn headlines and they may not all throw 99mph, but they don’t look too bad. Don’t discount the contributions of last year’s new pitching coach Wes Johnson. More to come, their off season continues..
AirRaidAssassin
So the White Sox finish 29 games behind the Twins last year and basically need to have everything go right to have a chance in the Central.
Did the White sox improve by 29 games? The Twins are definitely better than they were last year, so you have even more ground to make up on the Twins. We lost no players of consequence. Schoop was a non factor for most of the year and Cron was league average to be kind. Giving a .300 hitter like Arraez all of Schoops at bats and replacing Crons production with Sanos and reaplcing Sano with Donaldson is a definite net gain across the board. Most of our team is incredibly young so the Twins have as much room to grow as anyone. You seem pretty confident in a lot of players who havent shown much in MLB
AirRaidAssassin
The numbers wiil correct themselves in 2020? Why wasnt 2019 an anomaly for Giolito and Anderson? Take off your White Sox glasses and realize that the White Sox havent made up 29 games in the standings and the Twins certainly lost 29 games in the standings.
Finlander
Twins top 10 farm prospects outrank Chicago and Cleveland top 10s combined, sorry. Chicago and Minnesota have some infield shortcomings (and outfield for Chicago), and Twins stepped up to improve that with JD. This wasn’t just for hitting. Groundball-inducing Keuchel won’t be helped by infield, especially Tim Anderson at SS..so his 14-16 wins might hit 10-12. Giolito is an ace, unquestionably. The rest are young talented crap shoots and rehabs. Cleveland has nice starting pitching but OF problems galore beyond Mercado and doesn’t have payroll to fix it, while Twins have 3 or 4 CF-worthy outfielders on their 26 man lineup. It is going to be interesting to see how these teams play their strengths against the other’s weaknesses.
AirRaidAssassin
Lets be honest. Depth matters. The White Sox look good on paper but they are paper thin. The Twins have much better depth across the board and during a 162 game season that depth will be tested. Backups matter. The Twins depth is way better than the Sox depth. Not particularly close.
Mndummy
Pretty sure Sox/twins rotations are pretty close… Maybe slightest nod to the Sox cause they have less question marks. However twins bullpen blows the Sox away… And both teams had pretty bad defenses. But twins have gotten better in that area… OFFENSE gap is HUGE! Should be doing research on how to keep your squad from trading away an elite pitcher and an all star RF (both under 24 I believe) for a pitcher with a ERA over 5…
AirRaidAssassin
The Indians have better depth in the Minor Leagues than the Twins??? Your credibility is fading fast
Priggs89
“white sox wont be a factor — not enough starting pitching“
And you’re making an argument for the Twins? They don’t have starting pitching either…
apbadogs
Scoring 1 more run per game on offense is no different than preventing 1 less run pitching.
DTD_ATL
If they wanted to put their foot on the division, they would’ve signed some besides Hill and Bailey to fill out their rotation.
nymetsking
my thoughts exactly
macstruts
It’s a weak division. . Everyone was picking the Twins before this move. They were already the best and they added what might be the best player in the division.
Donaldson also plays defense. Which will help every pitcher. And they are much better overspending on Donaldson then overspending on Ryu or Keuchell.
ScottCFA
They can win the division with their offense alone, even with “Homer” Bailey, Pineda and half a season of Hill. But can they go any further with that rotation? Not likely.
macstruts
The Twins don’t have a elite team. But they had the best team in that division before they added Donaldson.
thetruth 2
Cleveland have the best team. If it wasn’t for injuries they would’ve won the division last year. Cleveland has far better pitching and a lineup that can be just as good.
AirRaidAssassin
101 wins and 300 homeruns would like to have a word with you
AirRaidAssassin
Does Clevel;and have a better team now. Other than Lindor, there isnt a position player on the Indians I would take over the Twins position players.
Baldkid
“but, but, but” ain’t gonna cut it. It what happens on the field. Twins won the division, Cleveland got second, stop end of sentence.
AirRaidAssassin
If it wasnt for injuries. You act as if the Twins didnt have any players miss time due to injury. Not the Twins fault that the Indians had zero depth to deal with the injuries. Twins had injuries and to deal with injuries we spent money on marwin gonzalez with an eye on keeping players healthy.
The twins also employed a strategic day off policy that gave everyone a scheduled day off and the depth at the upper levels of the minors was key to the division championship. Sorry about your injuries. Its a losers lament
crumpy24
Well said
hockeyjohn
I don’t see them as the class of the division with that starting pitching staff. Hill is hurt and will likely get hurt again. Pineda still has 39 games of suspension left. Bailey is nothing special. Odorizzi is a 5 to 6 inning pitcher. Their pitching will be their downfall.
thetruth 2
It’s a terrible signing. He’s 34 and in decline with a recent injury history. They needed an ace and didn’t get one, now they look worse than Cleveland and Chicago,
David Barista
This is a great pickup…. Donaldson is not old…. yet…. he may look old after 35…. there is a questionable amount of money/risk to this move, but I like it for 2020
AirRaidAssassin
I dont care if it’s a net loss in year 3 and year 4. Lots of teams have dead money on the books. The Twins arent the Rays. Our new front office is light years ahead of what came before it and our farm system is one of the best in baseball. Paying players league minimum can help offset the cost of doing business with Donaldson
AirRaidAssassin
You act as if Nelson Cruz doesnt exist? 40 years old and still mashing homeruns 450ft.
AirRaidAssassin
terrible signing? Are you kidding me? Flags fly forever.. Donaldson replaces Sano and Sano replaces Cron. The Twins depth is much better than that of the Indians. Who is the Indians equivalent of Marwin Gonzalez? Ehire Adrianza? Jake Cave? The Indians had injuries last year and they most likely have injuries this year. You offset the injury risk by having depth and the indians are paper thin.
I also believe that Buxton hasnt fully realized his hitting potential. White Sox fans like to tout all the prospects and unrealized potential. Well the twins are a young team as well and much better situated for success than the Indians. If anything, the white sox made up ground on the Indians.
Indians fans have zero reason to be confident. The team puts a great product on the field and your attendance is garbage. Maybe the Indians wouldnt need a complete teardown if they had more gate revenue to play with. It’s your own damn fault
AirRaidAssassin
The team definitely doesnt look worse than Chicago or Cleveland. What have the Indians done this offseason to make up ground on the Twins. The Twins did win the division last year and didnt lose anything of value in the offseason. The indians have done nothing and they have very little in the way of help coming from the farm or even prospects to trade for upgrades. The White Sox may have made up ground on the Indians but certainly not the Twins. Sorry. You’re delusional
CKinSTL
I think the comment about the Indians is unfair. Let’s face it, the two teams are at different stages of their window. The Twins are ramping-up, the Indians are retooling. Fans are so quick to forget the Indians added solid players and payroll in Edwin, Andrew Miller, Brad Hand (and also Josh Donaldson) when they were in the mode of adding to their roster.
I agree that it is a nice addition for the Twins. Clearly some risk with age and injury history – but Donaldson has proven what type of player he can be when he is healthy.
AirRaidAssassin
Those that hate the Donaldson signing hate it because of 2022 and 2023. Twins fans arent interested in 2022 and 2023. Heres how it works for those of you dont know.
Donaldson helps them win more games
Winning more games gets them in the playoffs and possibly further.
Making the playoffs is extra money in the team coffers.
Money that can be used to make sure the team fields a consistent winner even if Donaldson provides negative value in year 4..
Indians fans dont show up to games even when their team was lappign the field in the AL Central, why would they show up now that they are retooling? Indians are going to have a hard time the next 5 years.
mlb_moves
Considering the Braves offered him $100M+ Id say this is a pretty good deal
garlick
If the Braves really offered $100M+ he would have signed with them. So that’s basically incorrect.
mr. g
They did?
crumpy24
Jon Morosi over hypes everything
VonPurpleHayes
B. They kept him under his asking price, but 4 years is still a concern with his age. It’s what the market demanded though.
That being said the Twins lineup is fantastic in 2020.
BartoloHRball
I think it was a solid signing by the Twins. In 8 seasons (really 7 seasons because his rookie cup of coffee and 2018 were both short stints) he put up 44.8WAR. I don’t know the “updated” WAR value, but ballpark it is at least ~$8m per WAR.
If Donaldson can put up 4, 4, 3, 1 in WAR…that is ~$96m in value..
If he puts up 4, 3, 2.5, 2…in WAR…that is $92m in value.
The Twins made a great signing if he can stay healthy for at least 2 years because even a banged up JD will put up 2 WAR in a season.
BartoloHRball
Cherry picking a bit, but it’s still really impressive….
In seasons where Donaldson has played at least 100 games (6 seasons)….he has amassed 47.4WAR or 7.9WAR per season. Guys have put up some single seasons of 7+, but to average nearly 8 WAR….wow.
That’s crazy. It’s not Mike Trout crazy…but it is likely top 3-5 in all of baseball.
AirRaidAssassin
I could care less about the length. Funny thing is if he continues to rake the length of the deal I wont be able to find any of you with a searchlight to eat some crow.
maximumvelocity
For this season, it’s an A.
For the rest of the deal, it could end up being an F.
Very risky for a player with a history of injuries who didn’t really seem all that interested in going there in the first place.
SoCalBrave
history of 1 injury.
TommySnodgrass
I agree, MaximumVelocity.
That chunk of money could be a nightmare on their mid-market payroll. Who knows the ramifications of future money issues on their books. It could affect potential future extensions for guys like Polanco or Kepler, or others.
AirRaidAssassin
Polanco and Kepler have already been locked in for the next 4 to 5 year and lots of money coming off the books after this year. Twins also have a farm system that is the envy of many and any negative value we get from Donaldson in year 3 or 4 will be more than offset by Kepler, Polanco, Kiriloff, Larnach etc etc etc
Surly
Ultimately the decision comes down to character imo. Do you believe Donaldson will work hard, take care of himself and remain fiercely competitive? Or do you think he’s a Fowler type, who upon receiving a payday becomes a slug? Personally, I would bet on Josh to continue to hit at minimum. Cruz is 39 and still mashing.
Priggs89
39 and still mashing. Almost seems too good to be true.
54scooterb
If JD wears #20, what does Eddie Rosario receive for giving it up?
One Bite Hotdog
If he can give up a “drug of abuse”, then he can easily give up #20
bigtwinsfan14
JD will continue to wear 20. I don’t see Eddie on this team opening day if the right offer for pitching comes along…
Moneyballer
This poll is fueled by larger fanbases + rival fanbases being upset at such a good signing. This is an A and its not even close.
DTD_ATL
It’s fueled by common sense. It’s a B deal at best. It’s too much money for his age at a position they didn’t need.
dylla
Multiple teams offering competing offers means this is market demand. It is definitely a position of need considering Sano was heading towards 1B eventually soon as the Twins could make is happen. They made it happen and signed and elite player. This is an A
Finlander
Too much money? Whose budget are you working with? Yours, the Twins’, some favorite big market team of which you are intimately familiar with their balance sheet?
If Twins make any playoff noise in year 1 or 2, the next couple of years of the contract costare already covered. And 2 or 3 more $10+MM/yr contracts (Cruz, Marwin G, maybe Rosario off top of my head) will be gone by then too.
AirRaidAssassin
Donaldson equals more wins
More wins equal the playoffs and hopefully more home playoff games
MOre playoff games are more money
more money covers Josh and the plethora of team friendly deals we have already.
Indians on the other hand are purging payroll and fretting about life after Lindor,. Must be sad in the Factory of Sadness.
Even when the twins played in the dump called the metrodome it was never a consideration to let ourface of the franchise walk (Mauer). The Indians have fielded a consistent winner and nobody goes to games to help fund the payroll. It’s your own damn fault
RicoD
If you want to be shortsighted it is an A… but the signing as a whole is probably not an A over the whole term.. Year 3 and 4 it could be a C or D… probably not an F. I voted B as I see him producing great numbers this year, good the next and average numbers the last 2 years. At best an A, and worst a C (in my eyes) so a B is fair to me.
thetruth 2
It’s an F. They needed an ace, instead they paid almost $100 million for a 34 year old in decline who just missed almost 2 seasons due to injuries. It’s an idiotic signing they didn’t even need to make.
Moneyballer
Your name should be changed to “the lie” if we’re telling the truth.
AirRaidAssassin
Who did the Indians sign this offseason for any amount of money this offseason. Their GM is chiseling locks of Salvation Army kettles to pay the players they have now.
No one shows up to games when they are lapping the field in the AL Central. Why would they show up to Progressive when the bad version of Charlie Sheens indians start playing there.
SoCalBrave
If I could give it a B+, that’s where I would mark it. The 5th year option/buyout is what keeps it from being an A.
Les Chesterfield
Lol. I’m happy for twins fans and I like the twins but this is a reflection of complete incompetence. You already got sano and a terrible rotation yet they spend all their money on a second 3rd basemen. At the same time twins sit on a slew of top prospects blocked by other better breakout players yet are terrified to trade any of them to get better in the short term. Absolutely no direction or leadership. Just throwing money around and hoping it works out.
Rival execs of yanks and Indians and Red Sox absolutely love this move.
AirRaidAssassin
The Indians are a nonfactor and the Red Sox area non factor as well. Why would Twins fans care about what execs for those 2 teams think. The Red Sox are in luxury tax land with a team that didnt sniff the playoffs and the Indians are looking in couch cushions throughout the greater Cleveland area to help cover their meager payroll.
David Barista
He’s 34…. that makes him 38 after 4 yrs, and that’s questionable…. unless you drink purple koolaid
AirRaidAssassin
Who cares. flags fly forever. Our window is open now. People are pissed when the twins dont spend money. People are pissed when we spend money. I’m starting to get annoyed with all of this. We tried to sign elite SP this offseason and for one reason or another pitchers had dreams of playing other places.
Donaldson is a monster and a win is still a win at 8-6 as it would 2-0.
People act as if the twins pitching is complete garbage. We got rid of the trashiest pitcher we had on roster
rcglanzer
As a lifelong Twins fan, I can give this move nothing but an A. I remember back to the ’03, ’04 teams where it seemed like the Twins were always one big bat away, and they would never spend the money. Even if this looks bad a few years down the road, it is so refreshing to see the Twins finally, literally for the first time ever, spend on an external free agent. That said, I do still hope there is a starting pitcher trade in the coming weeks.
everlastingdave
This has to be the best take. As a White Sox fan, I’m not psyched your team got the free agency monkey off their back, but you’ve got an insane lineup to look forward to.
purplewidow
They didn’t spend on what they needed which was starting pitching.. they spent on hitting when that really wasn’t needed and picked from the bargain bin the white sox have picked from the last decade plus. Is it a good addition? Yes no question… the price is steep for the player and age and the fact hitting was the least important need this off season even with expected offensive regression. So the off-season so far is a failure for a team that won sooo many games and bashed in 2019… it’s tough for twins fans. They got Hill and Homer.. it’s laughable. Players either didn’t wanna play in Minnesota like Greinke and others who have had them on their no trade list.. or they got outbid.
thetruth 2
Lol. Donaldson is going to decline more, if he even stays healthy, If the juiced ball disappears, then say goodbye to Kepler and Garver’s 30 HR totals. Cruz is going to crash and Buxton can’t stay healthy. They way overachieved in 2019.
AirRaidAssassin
The basll wasnt just juiced for the Twins. The Twins pitching was fine last year, just not notch. I know you’re jealous of this signing and if your team had done it you would be praising it up and down. The Indians are in decline because nobody shows up to games. They have no money to spend on talent and the only position player I would take off the indians over the Twins is Lindor, and Polanco isnt a huge dropoff.
White Sox didnt make up 29 games with their Cleveland Brownish offseason and the Twins are better than they were last season. If Kepler doesnt hit 30 Homeruns because of the ball, the ball will be used across major league baseball. for all teams. The Indians had a juiced ball last year as well and looked pathetic. They say that Indians catcher had a career year, so it stands to reason he will regress as well. The Twins have a higher ceiling from which to start their regression
eyesaiah
A+ signing for Minnesota. So many haters don’t have a clue about the actual work these players put in. Most of the comments swear JD is going to drop off due to age like he’s not a two-way player.
martras
It doesn’t matter how hard Donaldson works, he’s going to age. I’m assuming you’re young and you believe that hard work can offset aging or you’re aging and don’t want to resign yourself to the inevitable. Ligaments, tendons, joints and skeletal strength decline and even eyes become less flexible. Even if Donaldson manages to maintain his physical abilities, his mental abilities like reaction time will decline. In a position which requires ultra elite reaction times, eyesight and high levels of athleticism, the writing is on the wall.
I’m not saying Donaldson is a bad signing. Just that he’s going to decline and it’s extremely unlikely he’ll be as productive in a couple years as he is now.
eyesaiah
lmao he’s not playing in a senior league, he’s playing a game which he happens to be elite at. You can recover from injuries at any age it’s called physical therapy. This age phenomenon is becoming toxic, everybody said the exact same thing last year
AirRaidAssassin
So? Window is open now and farm system is one of best in baseball. Rosario is 9 million dollars and he’s no lock to not be traded and replaced with a Larnach or Kiriloff. Who cares about 2022 and 2023,. no one cares about those years. People care about winning in 2020.
fletch
It’s a nice pick up, it really comes down to if he can pitch. This team is in dire need of arms to put them over the top. The front office clowns sign a bat, you guys figure out the grade.
macstruts
He sure can pitch. He can save the Twins pitchers a lot of runs.
Col. Taylor
Good Take.
jessethegreat 2
Would have been better served adding pitching to a weak pitching staff instead of adding hitting to an already potent lineup but hey what do I know..
Finlander
Can trade from excess strength.
sufferforsnakes
Donaldson elite? Uh, no. Really good? Yes. There is a difference.
garlick
Donaldson has put up consistently 5 fWAR per year when healthy, and has done it averaging 139 wRC+. If that’s not elite, then I don’t know what is. Rendon is considered Elite, and he’s only a 128 wRC+ hitter, with a lower fWAR per year average for the same age. Bregman is considered the best in the business at just 146 wRC+. Sorry, but he’s elite, again when healthy.
macstruts
What’s elite? Top 20 in WAR last year. Only one player in the AL central had a higher WAR than Donaldson.
If people are quibbling on the term “elite”, then I’m not sure what point they are attempting to make.
AirRaidAssassin
BItter that the Indians are in decline and doing nothing this winter, I can understand your gut reaction to crap on every big signing by a team that rolled past yours last year.
Geoff28
Solid A for at least year one and most likely year 2. Issue becomes the wear and tear on his legs which have been an issue in the past. Nice part for JD is being back in the AL he will most likely DH for years 3 & 4 (Nelson Cruz can’t play forever… can he?? Lol). Good, potentially great move, for Minnesota if the Braves did indeed offer 100+ mil
oriole
He’s gonna be injured for most of that contract. Bad move IMO
thetruth 2
Truth.
AirRaidAssassin
You dont know that? You hope thats the case but it gives the Indians hope.
bdpecore
I gave it a B because I think the Zteins were smart in stretching out the cost further by making his buyout $8MM. I also feel at some point he will start spending more time at DH since Cruz isn’t getting any younger. Of all the teams he could’ve signed with (Braves, Nats, Rangers) I think the Twins were the best fit due to already being a contender, payroll flexibility and being in the AL.
number1dodger
He probably would’ve been in his best interest to stay in Atlanta. He’s 34 years old and he’s got some health issues. He’s not the answer to the twins problems.
bdpecore
Why would staying in the NL be in his best interest? Moving to the AL allows him to remain in the lineup and not play the field everyday which should save on the wear and tear of a 162 game season. I can’t predict when but eventually his mobility will decline and he will be a negative in the field.
snotrocket
Nelson Cruz can help him out with the anti-aging serum.
bdpecore
Even though they needed to bolster their rotation there were so many teams in need of starters that it simply wasn’t realistic to expect them to sign 4 starters from the top two tiers. So adding additional offense should help to offset lesser starters giving up 3-5 runs in the first 5-6 innings.
DakotaExpert
A+, risk? Yes. Reward? High. DH minimizes the longer term, which is ol only 4 years – compared to the 8 year Mauer risk. Oh, by the way, he’s not a catcher.
Col. Taylor
He used to be…
okiguess
I like Donaldson, that being said, 34 years old is risky. Could end up being Albert Pujols II.
TurkeyBuckett
Pujols was a damn good player from ages 34-36. He fell off a little at 37, but still knocked in 100+ runs.
bdpecore
Pujols put up bWAR of 4.0, 3.0 and 1.3 in his 34-36 seasons. His 34 yr old season he provided positive value in comparison to his salary. The following season he was worth exactly what he was paid. When he was 36 he had a negative value of $14.6MM so he clearly wasn’t as good as you say. And I’m not sure how producing a -1.9 bWAR when 37 is considered falling off a little. He realistically rolled down a hill at 36 and right off a cliff at 37.
TwinsHomer
Kepler
Donaldson
Cruz
Sano
Rosario
Garver
Polanco
Araez
Buxton
That’s the best lineup in baseball folks.
thetruth 2
Lol not even close. Kepler is a platoon hitter who peaked due to a juiced ball, Garver got lucky with a juiced ball, Donaldson can’t stay healthy outside a contract year and is in decline, Cruz is 40 and will crash, Arraez is a bench player starting, Buxton can’t stay healthy… this lineup is going to crash in 2020.
TwinsHomer
Kepler hit lefties better than righties in 2019 but nice try bud. Garver was 12th in hard hit % in 2019. Donaldson may be in decline but doesn’t change the fact he had a fantastic year. Cruz may be 40 but didn’t he just put up a 1000 ops at the age of 39? Arraez hit .334 in 2019 as a rookie. Buxton not being healthy may be your only good point but he’s your #9 hitter. Your argument sucked.
AirRaidAssassin
It’s one of the best lineups in baseball and much better than anything the rest of the AL Central has to offer. Lindor is the only position player I would take over a current twins starter. Twins have hitting depth as well to weather injuries. We have Adrianza, Gonzalez and Cave to fill in when need arises with a farm system littered with elite hitting prospects. Indians farm is thinner than Calista Flockhart
AirRaidAssassin
You do realize that the entire league used a juiced ball last year. Not just the Twins. If Garvers homeruns decline it will be accompanied by a decline for the white Sox and indians and will definitely cut into the 15 HRs the Tigers hit last year
Finlander
So, “truth”, um, how is it that only the Twins apparently benefited from a “juiced ball”? What happened to all the other teams? And why didn’t those other teams set HR records off of that “lousy” Twins pitching?
b1207
You always have to “overpay” to actually get the player in this situation.
BartoloHRball
An overpay would have been 4/$110m. He likely won’t reach 8+ WAR again, but if he can reach 5 and not drop off of a cliff, he will be a great signing for the Twins.
If he stays healthy for the first 2 years or so, I think he could put up 6 WAR and 5WAR, so any positive contributions for his 3rd and 4th years would provide a surplus of value on his contract.
Bravescj10
A couple of people on here are saying Braves offered 100+ mil. Where did you guys hear that?? Can’t imagine JD turning it down if they did.
seth3120
No chance
Bubba Don
I scored it a C. Maybe should have gone a B. But I think it’s a great deal for the next two years or so….after that not so sure. Hope he proves me wrong, I like they guy a lot. You never have to worry about him not giving 100 percent
kodion
Donaldson plays hard. As a result, he often plays injured. Can’t see him toning down the aggressiveness and, getting older, it will be more difficult to perform with, and recover from these aches and pains.
This will get expensive.
C
DakotaExpert
See how our young, new pitchers do, see who’s available at the trade deadline
DakotaExpert
See how our young, new pitchers do, see who’s available at the trade deadline
DakotaExpert
See how our young, new pitchers do, see who’s available at the trade deadline
everlastingdave
Sano doesn’t have to “play” third base anymore, Twins fans get to enjoy winning the winter a little bit for the first time in history, and Bomba Squad adds someone who could finish second in MVP voting this year if healthy. If this isn’t an A, nothing is.
bravesfan
It’s obviously a good signing for them. Even if he’s good for only 2 years, that contract is good value
bravesfan
Now for the Braves, nightmare situation … straight up
Col_chestbridge
Donaldson is a good get, and he’s affordable because of what they’re doing with the rotation. Which is either a sign of extreme confidence in their evaluators, or them being very lucky.
Last year their rotation was almost entirely guys with expiring deals. Hughes and Pineda were in the last year of their deals. Martin Perez was a one year deal. Kyle Gibson was in his last year of arbitration. This year… they do it again. Odorizzi back on the QO, Bailey and Hill on one year deals. Pineda is on a two year deal.
They’re going to need more out of Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe and/or Graterol if they’re going to repeat this year. And if they’re going to have a chance to build anything longer term.
TheAdrianBeltre
I personally picked B. I can see picking A or C, but would sway back toward B based on age and contract length versus that they got an elite player… I’d have been happy if Texas signed him to it, and hoped he aged like Beltre or better. By the way, Beltre seasons age 34-37: 151 game average, .307 BA, 129 wRC+, 99 HR, 5.6 UZR/150, 37 DRS, 24.7 WAR, MVP votes every season(top ten three times).
Scrap1ron
The Twins are in win now mode with this signing. They’ll need to make a trade deadline deal for a decent starting pitcher to make this commitment worthwhile.
Moonlight Graham
It might be a good signing for one or two years, but the back half of the deal is regrettable. I would even say the first have is questionable considering age, injury history and team needs.
But even he produces at a traditional Donaldson level initially, the Twins didn’t need him—they just set the all-time single-season HR record. They would’ve been better off overpaying for pitching.
As for the lineup… Donaldson is definitely hitting in front of Rosario, regardless of left vs. right. And I think Arraez should be at the top of the order. With his on-base skills and those thumpers in the middle of the order, he could easily lead the league in runs.
johnnyg83
I hate Donaldson and I hate the Twins, but I gave it an A. If he stays healthy he’s a beast and will make everyone on that lineup better. Not to mention, a good counter punch to the White Sox improvements.
DakotaExpert
Now, how good (or bad) will Sano be at 1st base
DakotaExpert
Now, how good (or bad) will Sano be at 1st base
Finlander
Sano played a bit of 1B last season, maybe Twins were checking his comfort level there. They also have plenty of relief 1B backups.
Also, I’d expect Sano, Marwin or Adrianza to spell Donaldson occasionally at 3B. Sano is definitely not a gold glove at the hot corner, but he has had some surprising moments over there and his arm is a gun.
Donaldson’s supposed “overpay” in years 3 and 4 should easily be balanced by the very reasonable costs of last year’s Kepler/Polanco extensions for that time frame.
AirRaidAssassin
The beauty of the teams lies not only in the main startign lineup but in the depth that the rest of the teams in the Central lack. Indians fans complain about all the injuries last year. Having decent depth would help offset that issue. Twins invested in depth and the Indians went on the cheap. Twins lose a player we can replace them with Cave or Adriana or a World Series hero Marwin Gonzalez
msqboxer
Age increases risk of injury and slower recovery..I think he’ll regress a little in years one and two against AL pitching, but still sit at .250 25HRs. Years 3 and 4 are the ones that can come back to bite the Twins…
AirRaidAssassin
You account for age and the move to the American League., Could you also account for the positive than he is moving to one of the top lineups in baseball with protection everywhere you look. Plus he gets 38 games against the Tigers and the Royals
scottaz
I picked D. D is for Donaldson! D is for Desperation move. D is for Drastic overpay. D is for Despair in years 3, 4, and 5 of the contract. D is for Dumfounded that anyone would give a 34 year old position player a 5-year contract!
Ashtem
Is 4 years with a club option
SoCalBrave
that club option has an 8M buy-out. That makes it likely a 5 year deal.
Ashtem
Is 4 years with a club option
MN Eric
You can’t rate this deal based on dollars and years. Only wins. The Twins were already going to win the division. This move was made to get past the first round. If Donaldson plays GG defense and hits 200 homers over the five years but we get swept out of the first round every year then it won’t be a great signing. HOWEVER Twins fans needed some spark from the offseason and this works perfect. Now we will trade some farmhands for a good pitcher and get the parade route ready The pitching staff all hinges on Buxton’s health any way. If he’s healthy we win. If not, then we need our pitchers to really take that next step.
thetruth 2
Wrong. Cleveland will win the division. This also doesn’t get them past the Yankees or Astros or Athletics or Rays or Red Sox or Indians.
MN Eric
A) How do you figure? Cleveland is in the middle of a rebuild/reload. I doubt they even come in second.
B) Again, how do you know? The playoffs are a whole different season. Some of the regular season’s best pitchers weren’t good playoff pitchers last year. And The Nationals were probably the 6th best team heading into the playoffs. No one was picking them and yet they won.
RicoD
You have spewed garbage all over this thread, now you’re saying Cleveland will win the division based on zero facts. Thank you for your contributions.
AirRaidAssassin
It doesnt get them past the Indians because to get past the indians we would first have to be behind the indians and thats not the current state of affairs. How exactly are the Red Sox, Indians and Astros better situated than the Twins??
tommy-9
Anyone grading this an A or a B on the Twins part makes me scratch my head. DOnaldson is a good player yes, but this is the exact opposite of a team friendly deal
martras
it’s called free agency. If you’re looking for team friendly deals in free agency, they’re going to be very few and far between.
MN Eric
We (Twins) didn’t need a team friendly deal. They have a TON of team friendly deals. Sano just signed for an extremely team friendly deal and we have very little money on the books past this year. We also have a loaded farm system to replace anyone who becomes too expensive or to use in a trade to bring in more talent.
macstruts
You want to predict what is going to happen in 2022 and 2023? If you want to win, you primarily worry about this year and the next year.
Things change fast in this game. If you make ML transaction in 2020 worrying about 2023 then you end up losing in 2020 and 2023.
As long as you add players only sacrificing money, it’s smart. Easy “A” for me. For this year and the next, the Twins vastly improved their team.
AirRaidAssassin
Twins have plenty of team friendly deals.
Finlander
If it makes the team better for the duration, it is team friendly. Don’t worry about the billionaire’s wallet getting too thin. Look at what a battle tested former MVP brings to the young lineup. Wins will show as tangible value. But don’t ignore the intangibles. They are there. Atlanta knows.
homerheins
Can’t go wrong adding a middle of the lineup bat to an already good offense. Plus, he brings better defense, which also helps them win. These GMs wouldn’t do this if they didn’t see a window to win a championship. They need to trade for pitching. We’ll take Robbie Ray for Buxton.
MN Eric
No. This team is not as good without Buxton. He makes the entire roster better. If we want Robbie Ray send them one of farm kids who are supposed to be “future studs”
Baldkid
Buxton is great when he plays, WHEN HE PLAYS and yes I’m a Twins fan.
AirRaidAssassin
and unlike the indians we can withstand an injury to a key contributor without curling up in the fetal position and complaining about it all day long. Wade and Cave can both play a passable center or Kepler can slide over and Wade or Cave can play. We have major league ready outfielders just waiting for a chance in the show
thunderlips
As a Braves fan, it’s hard not to grade this as an A for the Twins.
martras
I grade the signing as a B. It signals an interest in being competitive and Donaldson at 3B should be a huge upgrade over Sano at 3B. Signing a big name to a pretty big contract could potentially influence MLB players and agents to take the Twins seriously.
With the signing, the Twins’ lineup may be the best in baseball, but the problem is that pitching wins playoff games. The Texas Rangers went all in on hitting 10 years ago, too, but they watched helplessly as high caliber pitching silenced their big bats time and again. Ultimately, I believe the Twins needed to spend their resources on elite pitching far more than elite hitting.
twinky
Does Sano have that great of defense skill to man first base?
ABCD
What a difference a couple decades makes. Twins were almost contracted out of MLB starting 2002.
Rangers29
I said A purely because they got a terrific player for less than 100 million. I see Donaldson panning out for the entirety of this deal, he is a great defender still, and he mashes baseballs.
Now you can’t compare him to Nelson Cruz, because even though Cruz is 40, he hasn’t played the field in a while, so his body can’t wear down AS fast. So comparing him to Cruz as he ages isn’t doing anything cause there are still variables that you have to take into account.
p.s Why are people saying Donaldson has a vast injury history? He got injured once! But since he was injured for a while, people will infer that he has a terrible injury history. David Wright had an injury history, Hyun Jin Ryu has an injury history, and Shelby Miller has an injury history. Even though Donaldson had an injury before, saying he has an injury history makes it sound like he’s been out for multiple seasons at a time.
jb-4
Twins will rue the day they did this!!!
Bdd1967
The fielding at 3rd can only go up. More power in the line up and a fiery personality will definitely help. Now they need to grab one more solid starter and maybe 2 more reliable arms in the pen.
BSpar
I’m not a huge fan of this deal but I don’t think it’s out of line. IMO there is a lot more risk for the Twins than say an LA or NY team fiscally.
But I think Donaldson, and just my opinion, if managed correctly will be worth it.
My bigger concern is how this limits things down the road, financially.
BSpar
I’m not a huge fan of this deal but I don’t think it’s out of line. IMO there is a lot more risk for the Twins than say an LA or NY team fiscally.
But I think Donaldson, and just my opinion, if managed correctly will be worth it.
My bigger concern is how this limits things down the road, financially.
mike156
It’s not a bad deal. Likely an overpay for the full $100M, but he’s going to deliver solid value, and will still be useful (if not elite) at the end. There’s no question that there’s some risk, but people writing about it as the next Ellsbury aren’t really being fair.
kodion
How will it, if he plays well enough for the Twins to pick up the option, be an overpay?
hyraxwithaflamethrower
I don’t think he’ll be Ellsbury, but I don’t think paying $22M for someone who’s just “useful” is a good deal, either. Barring injury, they’ll get a good deal this year, a fair deal next year, overpay a little in 2022, and then have a significant overpay in 2023. But by then, with the Sox’ rebuild being done and the Tigers and Royals having strong farms that will be yielding talent, I think their time of walking all over the AL Central will be done anyway.
AirRaidAssassin
You act as if the Twins have no young talent on their team and their farms are much stronger than that of KC, Detroit and Cleveland. The Twins are the best situated team in the AL Central for the next 5 years
hyraxwithaflamethrower
I gave it a B. It makes up for the losses of Schoop and Cron on offense and probably sews up the division for the Twins again this year. So in that sense, they got what they wanted and they weren’t dumb enough to pay him his $110M asking price. On the other hand, he’s 34, with a significant injury history. Not a lot of guys keep producing like Cruz and Encarnacion into their late 30’s. I think they’ll be significantly overpaying him the last two years of this deal.
Gumbo
Only good if he performs and they perceive a short window. Otherwise bad for a franchise that spends little.
Bad Medicine 00
Just so everyone knows where I’m coming from, I am a Toronto Blue Jays fan. The Twins have signed one heck of a Major League Baseball Player. In spite of the fact that Donaldson is 34 years old I gave it an A, and if the option had been there I would have gone A+.
Donaldson’s injuries in 2017 and 2018 were not age related. They were artificial turf related. As soon as he got out of Toronto his calf problems healed. Donaldson’s value goes far beyond what he does with a bat and a glove. “This is not the try league, this is the get’er done league.” Josh Donaldson early in his Blue Jays time. Yeah its a lot of money with significant risk over 4 years, but a 2 year deal would likely be 60 to 70 mil. The Twins front office just spread the money out over more time, lowering the AAV. Twins fans should not let the derogatory comments of other teams jealous fans upset them.
Surly
I think Josh will have a monster year with the Twins in 2020. Especially with the continuation of a juiced ball and a free pass to any player who steals signs.
AirRaidAssassin
Jealous much? stealing signs isnt illegal, stealing signs through electronic means is…Has donaldson been implicated in any cheating.
Surly
In essence, it pays for players to cheat. $$$,$$$,$$$.$$
Chris Koch
Best more of the offseason in terms of money and talent, and affect it will have for the team.
A+
Somehow the Twins now have a 6War or higher bat for them at 21mil a year you know because of age. An option at a 5th year at 16mil because you know age.
Donaldson made 23mil each of the last 2 seasons and 21mil now for the next 4?
6WAR value is over 30mil a year. In the AL and full season 155game Donaldson the 4 years he was a 7.8WAR player. That is over 40mil a year player. His bat to Statcast was his best results every for him. The one lone decline is his K% the last 3 seasons being higher but at a modest 3.7% over his career norm 19.8 to now 23.5%
Do you know what else he gains moving from Atl/NL to Min/AL? About 10games worth of PAs or more that with a bat as great as his may be why he had 6 vs 7.8War. well with K% maybe 7War. Either way, he has more opportunity a week’s games playing in the AL vs NL to do the thing he’s being paid for..
For Minnesota this cements them for 1st place in the Central. The White Sox had gained a lot on them prior to this but this is the prefect blocker move. Twins were not a 100 win team on paper even after last season because last season was a result of practically career years for every hitter. Donaldson is a veteran bat that produces their career years 6 seasons now. with injury keeping him from it being 7 straight.
Twins also have backup in the minors to either pull a trade for pitching or pull from their minors for some added depth that could improve their back end.
To me, this is really funny because the Large markets slept on this signing and a smaller market got the best batter in this FA class. One that is better than Bryce Harper last season’s big bat.
cwsOverhaul
The Tribe has far better pitching, but I love how the Twins are a “lock”.
RicoD
Far better when Kluber was still on the team. I would give the Tribe a slight edge as it currently stands, but the hitting isn’t even close.
AirRaidAssassin
The Indians had a team ERA of 3.76 and the Twins was just over a 4. Not exactly far better. NOw lets look at the offensive numbers…..
canocorn
“If Donaldson can stay healthy and hold back father time just a bit…”
Father time gets more ornery with age.
Near-term: A
Long-term: C
Voted: B
Hard to walk with four balls
He still had a hell of a year last year; i would guess that there is more in the tank.
paindonthurt
How are people giving this D @ F grades? Great signing for the Twinkies. I would expect the 5th year to be a buyout
macstruts
Because this is a Twins thread and weasels love coming on threads about other teams and knocking them.
The Twins added an elite defender to take over for a poor defender. They added a first baseman that shouldn’t play 3rd. They were the clear cut favorites to win the division, now they are the overwhelming favorites to win the division.
This trade may only help them for two years rather than four… so what. Either these fans don’t understand baseball or they are bitter weasels. My guess is both.
martras
Donaldson is far from an “elite” defender at 3B these days. He’s still above average, but he hasn’t been elite since about 2015.
AirRaidAssassin
Couldnt agree more. Our window is open now were keeping it open for as long as we can
Questionable_Source
With Sano at first, how much does the defense regress? The rest of the infield can have all the range in the world and field everything. It means nothing if the first baseman doesn’t catch the throws.0
martras
If Sano was 240lbs, he’d be better at 3B than Donaldson. Sano’s glovework isn’t an issue, it’s his mobility.
justalittleoutside
Reading all these White Sox fans comments on here is funny. Have they had a nice offseason? Yes. Will they improve? They should. Still, the teams that were ahead of them were pretty good last year and to just discount those two teams even with the White Sox having the better offseason is ridiculous. The White Sox feel like baseball’s version of the Cleveland Browns. A lot of hype that could lead to some disappointment.
martras
The White Sox had a much better offseason than the Twins. It’s not even close. The Twins aren’t obviously better than they were, but the White Sox are definitely way better.
The White Sox rotation could turn out to be excellent if Kopech and Cease take steps forward. Pitching wins playoffs.
AirRaidAssassin
Where are the White Sox hanging their Offseason World Series banner? Twins and Indians still the class of the division
AirRaidAssassin
Where are the White Sox hanging their Offseason World Series banner? Twins and Indians still the class of the division. The Twins lineup is one of the best in the baseball. Indians and White Sox have serious ground to make up
AirRaidAssassin
White Sox fans assumne every one of their prospects are going to be outstanding and every single proven Twins performer will regress. This is their basis for wild predictions of White Sox grandeur
AirRaidAssassin
So many ifs and unknowns you’re counting on for theWhite Sox to be good. Even if the ball was juiced, it was juiced for everyone. Twins hitters numbers might regress but so will the White Sox and Indians totals
AirRaidAssassin
Offseason Champs. You have 29 wins to make up the standings and the Twins are better this year than they were last year. All of your signings and prospect hype doesnt change that.. What’s Gordon Beckham up to these days???
AirRaidAssassin
How exactly are the Twins not better then they were last year?? What have they lost off their 2019 record breaking squad that would lead you to believe they are not better.
I look forward to your rationalization.
We lost Cron, Schoop and Gibson.
Thats a net win even if we replace them with minor leaguers
AirRaidAssassin
I heard all the same nonsense last year when the Browns traded for OBJ and signed a bunch of pro bowlers. Chemistry and attitude matters and the Twins have that in spades this year
of9376
Huge overpay. This will hurt them in years 3-4 of this contract.
AirRaidAssassin
So? our window to win is open now and I’m glad ownership and management is making a move to bolster a strength instead of worrying about whether we can keep our star player and purging payroll.
AirRaidAssassin
Go Twins
jim stem
He works hard, plays to win and brings that elusive “it” factor to teams. Solid signing for the Twins since he can can always dh later in the contract. He’s not your typical 34 year old.
borbrave11
I now am not a JD fan WAR EAGLE
its_happening
Twins need starting pitching or else this signing is wasted. ALDS elimination written all over it.
AirRaidAssassin
offseason isnt over yet and the twins have the most powerful lineup in the game.
People act like our pitching is garbage. Twins pitching last year wasnt bad
Carp1679
Arraez
Polanco
Cruz
Donaldson
Sano
Garver
Rosario
Kepler
Buxton
This is the base lineup I see, could change based of right or left handed pitcher.