The Dodgers have struck a record-breaking arbitration deal with outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). Bellinger is said to have a $11.5MM pact, topping the prior record (Kris Bryant, $10.85MM) for a first-time arb-eligible player.
Other top performers have also reached deals. Corey Seager will play at a $7.6MM salary. And utilityman Enrique Hernandez will earn $5.9MM, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (Twitter link).
Bellinger lands right at the projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. As Matt explained in a closer look, though, there was an argument for the reigning NL MVP to earn even more. He’ll still end up setting a new high-water mark for arbitration rookies by a fairly healthy margin.
Entering 2019, Bellinger had already established himself as a high-quality hitter and versatile defender. But he took things to a whole new level in his age-23 season, slashing a hefty .305/.406/.629 and launching 47 home runs while delivering big value on the bases and with the glove.
The projections were also close for Seager ($7.1MM) and Hernandez ($5.5MM). Both players were at less than top form in 2019 but remain key contributors — at least, unless they end up being shuffled out of the deck with a spring trade.
Bellinger should have gotten $30M, that’s how much these salaries are out of wack. If they fixed it so they paid them when they were good early in their careers like so many are, then free agency would only consist of lower value deals, and people would have one less thing to cry about. Better for the game I think.
Its definitely true. The upside is that Bellinger has the ability to be the best-compensated arbitration player ever. He is a super 2 player, so he’s going to go through the arb process 4 times in total, instead of 3. Since he’s already starting from a record amount for a first-time player, if he continues to play at this level he will break Betts’ just-established record quite easily: Betts only took 3 trips through arbitration.
If Bellinger continues to play at MVP-type levels, he could make 35-40m in his final arbitration season.
You’re right. I hope Cody can afford to pay his bills and feed his family with only 11.5 mil.
Look at your user name and then re-read my post.
If you can’t tell by Dreifort’s handle, he embraces bitter.
How are you going to make a username based off a bad contract from 19 years ago but try and talk down about Bellingers value.
@Strike Four
Just like every other sport the young guys have to play a few years get big paydays 4+ years down the road.
Yep, salary suppression. Owners love it. Young players don’t get paid what the market will pay them – they get paid what the structure says they get.
Salary suppression? That’s an odd way of looking at it. You mean because he didn’t get $35 Million? $11.5 Million for a third year player is a lot of money and do you really think as mentioned above, that if he was making $50 Million when he becomes eligible for FA, he won’t test the market to see if he could get more? I’m not knocking him or even Steve Boros. The system is broken. As a comparison let’s take Henry Aaron. In 1975 and 76 he made $240,000/yr. Seems like I remember that was pretty good money. However, allowing for inflation his $240 Grand then is equal to roughly $1,085,000 today. Is Bellinger ten times better than Aaron at his best? Will he be twenty-thirty-forty times better at his prime? Probably not. Is the game of baseball better? Is the experience of taking the family to a game better? I don’t see that it is. Inflation, simply put here as decreased purchasing power of the dollar, says Aaron would have to make about 350% more today than in 1976 to break even. So how in the heck can anyone justify Trout’s (average) $35-36 Million a year, even assuming he is a better player than Aaron. I takes billion $$$ television packages (that a lot of people can’t watch) and $200 a seat tickets which fewer people can afford to pay the bills. The system is broke.
Yet people keep paying it. So the product, the players, deserve their fair share.
@braves25 I offered a solution to people being crybabies about FA busts, presented a logical way for MLB to pay its players, and your reply is “every other sport does it, shut up” – great post try again
Not exactly. NBA and NFL still structure it for the higher picks to earn a lot without proving anything. It’s only the late 1sts and 2nd rounders in the NBA and round 3-7 in the NFL that make jack.
Blah blah blah
I tell you why I wouldn’t give him 30 million now, at some point pitchers will start pitching him up and away or up in the in and he will get beat. if you look at heatmaps on him you will see he only hits middle in the middle down. he may make the adjustment but that will require a complete swing change
That’s small sample scale, elite hitters are elite because they know how to adjust and absolutely no reason to not pay him what his current value is, which is well over $30M a year, considering how much profit his mere existence makes the Dodgers, MLB and every other MLB-associated product.
It’s a bit premature to call Bellinger an ‘elite’ hitter. Maybe he will be but in 2019 he was for a month or two and then his average gradually but consistently dropped. He stayed above .300 barely. He’s proven he can hit for power and is a plus or plus-plus defender. To say “considering how much profit his mere existence makes the Dodgers – – -“, is so off the mark because how many other players, who still cost plenty, don’t have that star power? How many team are supported through revenue sharing? The Trout’s of the game can’t keep it afloat at this rate,
@jimE
Narrative can be fun and you can chop his season up however you want…but he led the league in total bases last year.
His career OPS+ is 144 in 450 games. That’s good for top 50 all time.
Give him another peep. He’s an elite hitter.
yes he did lead the league in total bases. 188 of those came from HRs and agree to him being a power hitter. If he repeats those numbers, or close to them, then. He hit .272 after May and hit 20 of his home runs by the end of May. I’ll agree. His performance in the playoffs did not whisper elite. I really like everything about Bellinger but he needs to be more consistent for a whole season, His defense got him the MVP. Yelich hit .306 or better every month buy May
You make a good point, I imagine some significant changes will occur in the next CBA. IF the MLBPA gets an experienced labor attorney and not a former player.
*In a lead position
Nice! But he still can’t afford a home in Low Angeles!
I think maybe he can
Sometimes it takes a few minutes for sarcasm to sink in…
If Bellinger keeps performing, not only offensively but with the glove and arm like he’s been doing, he is going to get himself a heck of a contract. As much as I hate that they don’t go get too free agents or make that trade for that top pitcher to get us over the hump, they do take care of their own which is nice to see and this guy deserves it. Can’t wait to see what kind of deal he gets in the next year or two.
Unfortunately, Cody is a Boras client.
Despite that, I imagine that an extension is a top priority at this point.. I would expect to see one persued heavily next offseason.
This FO hasn’t done an extension yet and I don’t expect that policy will change, even for a player of Bellinger’s caliber.
(And no, Kershaw’s added year doesn’t really count as an extension.)
Bellinger 18 m 2021, 29 m 2022, 40 M 2023.
Highly likely Cody goes the Betts route, year to year. Unless Dodgers are ponying up 38-40 mil a year to top Trout, I can’t envision an extension in sight.
Surprised CS’s payday is that low. Injuries playing a role?
Or I guess, better question is does being a highly rumored trade chip increase or decrease your arbitration earning stock?
Corey got almost no raise last year because of his lost season. Once you have been through arbitration once, you are strictly getting a raise based on the most recent season and nothing else.
His lost 2018 is also a lost year of salary raise. He made only 3.4m as an Arb1. This is a reasonable raise; he just started much lower than you would think.
Obviously injuries were a factor. Both due to his injury history and the fact that those injuries had a significant impact on his overall production due to lost playing time.
Arbitration is based entirely on production and doesn’t care about risk of future injury, but that means a season with 110 PAs and bad numbers is entirely a lost cause as far as getting an arb raise.
Have never been able to understand the interest in arbitration outcomes. They have minimal effect on team payroll and the ability to sign impact players, so who should care, other than the player and their team?
Arbitration salaries really start to add up towards a teams budget.
well baseball news is thin at this time of year and arbitration works on precedents so each case has a direct effect on future deals as well
Now let’s see if he can hit in the playoffs this year
Bellinger is my favorite Dodger, but the kid needs to get strong enough to play for the entire season and not slow way down after 3/4 of the year. Maybe conditioning and strengthening will help. As he matures, he will be fun to watch for years to come. Go Dodgers!
He just won a MVP.
Imagine the money he could get when he starts hitting in the playoffs
But can he hit in the playoffs??
You already wrote that 15 minutes ago.
And who cares, playoffs are small sample scales, the game is about 162.
Imagine taking a 23 year old to task about playoff performance. Most guys are still at AA. Take a look in the mirror, man.
Hernandez at 5.9 million. Wow how did they not release him. Lot of $$$ for a player with those stats.
His stats don’t include his ability to play almost every position on the diamond and in the outfield, and to play them well.
So that’s your answer.
They are ~30 million under the tax. They can very well keep a solid utility player for his last year before free agency.
There is value in a guy who can spell every other player on the field, aside from P and C positions.
Well, he has pitched. pretty awful. His versatility and his enthusiasm make him a keeper. He gets a fair share of timely hits as well. 64 RBI is not bad for a .237 hitter with OK power.
Great regular season hitter but postseason not so much .
Now that arbitration figures are settled, maybe they make a trade? Another SP seems in order.
You know the Dodgers aren’t giving up anyone to get a starter. They want to trade low level prospects for MLB ready players. Lux, Ruiz, May, Gray,
Downs, Dodgers need to come up off one or two of them to get someone significant in a trade.
The Dodgers took a chance on him by drafting him and grooming him for the major leagues and now that he is doing much better than his salary indicates – it just means that for once the team got the better deal on a great player… he’ll get his huge payday soon enough