3:07pm: The Cubs will pay Javier Baez an even $10MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). That’s $700K north of his projected earning point. The sides are said to be interested in hammering out a longer-term contract, which remains possible after working out a 2020 salary.
3:00pm: Several other key Cubs players also have deals, per ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter links). Catcher Willson Contreras receives a $4.5MM salary, right on the MLBTR projection. Outfielder Kyle Schwarber will play for $7.01MM, south of the $8MM that the model predicted.
In other deals, the Cubs will pay southpaw Kyle Ryan $975K, according to Robert Murray (Twitter links). And outfielder Albert Almora will earn $1.575MM this year.
11:35am: The Cubs have avoided arbitration with third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link). He’ll earn $18.6MM in 2020.
That’s right on the projected valuation produced by the MLBTR/Matt Swartz model, which pegged Bryant at $18.5MM. The model seemed to (and did) match up with the real-world situation, as Matt explained in a detailed look at Bryant’s case. It’s a nice raise on his $12.9MM salary from 2019.
Bryant, who recently turned 28, continues to churn out productive seasons. He was limited somewhat by injuries in 2018 but appeared in 147 contests in the just-completed campaign, slashing .282/.382/.521 and driving 31 balls over the fence.
This settles one of the winter’s open questions involving Bryant and the Cubs — but certainly not the most interesting one. We’re still awaiting the outcome of a service-time grievance brought by the player surrounding the eyebrow-raising timing of his initial promotion to the majors. The resolution of that situation promises to impact ongoing trade talks involving the long-time Chicago star. It seems clear that the organization is interested in exploring scenarios involving Bryant and other top players, though it’s unclear as yet whether he or any other key piece will end up on the move.
Okay, so I guess it didn’t matter if they knew he had one or two years left to arrive at the expected salary. Does this have any relevance towards his grievance now?
No. It didn’t matter at all. His value is based on last year’s production, not if he has 2 or 1 year left. The grievance has nothing to do with this.
Shouldn’t affect his grievance, but it’d be nice if Manfred would push the matter towards a decision. Manfred is useless.
I agree. It is completely absurd that this matter has taken this long. This should have been decided before winter meetings.
Could be the arbitrator’s way of providing the Cubs some sort of punishment by having his value remained in the air for so long.
They didn’t violate the CBA by withholding him, but obviously they only did it for the control.
Reminds me a bit of Deflategate. There was little to no hard evidence that Brady intentionally deflated footballs, and four games if he did is excessive. He lost because the NFL didn’t violate the CBA when issuing the punishment.
The real battle will be between the Union and League when the CBA expires
They cheated in deflategate that’s for the nfl rumors board
Hope Bryant wins, Cubs deserve another smack in the face.
So do you.
Lol
No impact,
None at all. The grievance is over whether he has 1 yr or 2 yrs before he becomes a free agent. Arbitration and this contract just decided his salary for the season. If they had any sense they would’ve attempted a 2 yr contract. That would’ve avoided the grievance, altogether
If the Cubs expect to win the grievance (and they absolutely do), then a 2 year contract probably reduces Bryant’s trade value.
He wouldn’t have gone for 2 years. If he wins the hearing (I don’t think he will) then he will get a massive contract. If he took a two year deal, and looses the hearing, then goes on to another great year he will get yet another raise. Not to mention it will be his last year of arb and he will have no issue taking it all the way to an arbitrator, which could get him even more money.
Ricky if you had any sense you would no Kris Bryant would have zero interest in a two year deal.
You see if he loses the grievance he gets paid next year anyway as arbitration player. So effectively the loss gives the Cubs two years of control anyway.
If Bryant wins he is a free agent one year sooner seeking $200 plus million not another one year deal. Get it now?
.02% chance he wins the grievance.
1. The Cubs did not break any rules
2. There is no way you can allow agents and arbitrators tell GM’s who must be on the 25 man roster. That would be s disaster for every team and the league.
No. Those are two separate issues and should be treated as such.
World Series 2020, here we come!
ok. now trade him…
Still have to wait for the decision on the grievance first. No team is gonna make that move if there is even a 1% chance of Bryant winning the grievance.
He has less than 1% chance to winning. The rule is in the CBA. He’d be better off dropping it and go into talks for an extension for the first time
I really like Bryant. He might not be the consensus face of the organization with Javier being there. However, He still handles himself exceptionally well and clearly is a stud. He deserves a massive guaranteed contract one day, a true professional and ambassador of the sport.
Ditto
Agreed, but I’m concerned about his regression since 2016 and failure to produce in key situations
Javy , rizzo and Contreas are the faces. Theo and Co. Should at least try to extend him. I’m surprised they havent offered him any kind of extension yet
They offered him over 200M and he turned it down
Turning down a contract offer does not mean he is a bad guy or anything shy of what was mentioned in the comment above. He has been a very good player, person, and teammate by all accounts.
They never offered KB and thing. And right now 20aav for 10 years is generous.
He’s gonna tear free agency no matter what. Otherwise he would have accepted their first offer whenever that happens. He doesnt even want to get traded or be off the Cubs. Its Boras that wants him to move on. I’m sure he’ll demand 4billion over 30 years. Which obviously means he’ll get back pay long after he retires. If he wins a world series championship, lcs mvp or league MVP 2 extra years kick in which is 125mil per year for 32 years. Which boras will get like 3% of that
But he is soooo soft. I can’t think of another player that has hurt himself at every base. Literally rolling around in the dirt and crying at all 4 bases.
Yes he made the dumb mistake of sliding into first base headfirst, but I don’t think getting hit in the face/head makes one “soft”.
In this day and age it’s more than refreshing to watch a player treat the game right…bust it down the line over 98% of the time, hit a ball out of the park, drop the bat and just circle the bases. Come to the park every day and try to contribute even when injured.
Calling him “soft” is just ludicrous.
Being a Cubs fan, I think Rizzo is the “face” of the organization. Great guy, consistent, and been there the longest. I would rank KB behind Baez, Contreras, and even Schwarber. KB= Not really a big personality, nor an excellent defender, nor a clutch player, and tends to be a bit soft when it comes to injury time. But that’s just my two cents.
Not a clutch player? Please see games 5, 6, and 7 of the 2016 World Series. Can’t be much more important than that, can it? If not for game 7 getting close, Bryant’s home run in game 5 is probably the biggest in the history of the franchise to anyone living today. Without that home run the series is over that night. (play the tape—Smoltz had just said ‘the Cubs better score now…if not the Indians will have the bullpen ready for the rest of the game..)
Not sure where the false narrative comes in or started…check the numbers–pretty much better in high leverage, late inning, close game situations than games separated by more than four runs.
Yea he was clutch in 2016 but that was “yesterday”
@word——nothing will be more clutch that the World Series.
The most recent “yesterday” was 2019…..Bryant’s stats:
2 out, RISP: .955 OPS
Late and Close: 1.125 OPS
Team Behind: 1.009 OPS
Game Separated by More than 4 Runs: .781 OPS
It’s incredibly difficult to throw up a 5.000 OPS in every baseball situation…even for star players.
There’s no such thing as a clutch player. And in the game of baseball, what does being a “big personality” even matter? It’s all about the stats each player produces.
Rizzo is the face of the Cubs much more than Bryant
2020 lineup so far….
Almora
Hoerner
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Contreras
Heyward
Schwarber
(Pitcher)
No way Almora bats leadoff
Agreed. No way. If I were Ross I would seriously consider Bryant. Having someone who could get on at a .380+ clip would be nice. I don’t care how many runs he drives in, we need someone who gets on base to lead off. He is also a good base runner, doesn’t steal much but he is smart.
Bryant
Hoerner
Baez
Rizzo
Contreras
Schwarber
Heyward
Almora/Happ/Platoon?
Pitcher
That is what I think would be best.
Most optimized lineup:
Rizzo
Bryant
Baez
Schwarber
Contreras
Heyward
Happ
Bote
Pitcher
Hoerner isnt going to start in MLB, cmon use your heads, he was only there because Baez was hurt. September is an easy month to run into a lot of tanking teams with terrible pitching.
Russell not Baez.
Happ continues to be undervalued here and while he was under Maddon. Give that guy a full season, he hits 30HRs and has around a .900 OPS = Premier player. Same with Schwarber, once Maddon started giving him more abs against lefties he really started to find his stride. Put both of those guys right in the middle of the lineup.
The problem with Happ is that he strikes out way too much (nearly 33% of his at bats). He certainly has 30 HR power but his K’s are the main reason he spent most of last season in AAA. If he can’t get this below 25%, the Cubs can’t afford to play him as a full time outfielder. He kills way too many rallies with his untimely strikeouts.
Almora rarely played. To no fault of his own. He was never really the same after that Houston game
I disagree. Hoerner may have gotten extra playing time in September because of injuries but I saw him hit and he’s the real deal, solid line drive hitter. He needs to take more walks but I see him starting at 2B. Doesn’t have the range to play SS at the ML level.
Most optimized lineup is one in which Schwarber, Hetward, Happ, and Bote are on another team.
Not even sure Almora makes the big league club without a pretty solid spring.
or Schwarber bats 8th
Looks familiar
Personally I would go:
Hoerner
Baez
Rizzo
Bryant
Heyward
Contreras
Schwarber
Happ
Darvish
Opening day lineup.
For Old Time Sake
SS Kessinger
2nd Beckert
RF Williams
1st Banks
3rd Santo
LF Hickman
C Hundley
CF Young
SP Jenkins
Banks would be at SS not 1B. He was a SS first then moved to 1st
Where is Sammy?
The 1969 line up would have had Williams in LF and Hickman in RF, and Santo and Banks flip flopped in that batting order.
Nope. Banks played 1st base with that group.
Schwarber’s OBP and team leading power doesn’t play in the 7th spot at all.
Top HR hitter at 7th or 8th? Heyward ahead of him? Poor choices.
Happ will start in CF, time to let him sink or swim.
Agreed, Almora has played himself into a 4th or 5th outfielder.
Almora is a better CF than Happ. Happ is better in the infield. Occasionally in left with Schwarber getting a day off
Your user name sucks.
Okey Dokey weird picture guy
Thanks for the input.
Guy with no pic commenting on pics, smh.
It’s widely expected Kris Bryant will lose his grievance, but no team is going to finalize a trade before the decision is announced. With the 2020 salary locked in and the ruling on the grievance set to drop any day now, I’d wager interested teams are ready to conduct some deep discussions on offers for Bryant.
Now the cubs and KB know his “fair value” (in the words of scott Boras) 200/8 with an option for a 9th year. That’s 25m aav. this is 7mil raise per year. Bryant doesn’t even want to leave the cubs. They can at least offer him 200-220 over 8 years. Maybe go a little high then find a middle ground. It would be their first offer of an extension
No way Bryant does it, he is going to bet on himself which he should, I really think his shoulder was still not a 100% healthy last season, but if it is this year, he will be in the MVP talks again.
Bryant would definitely get 8 / $200MM in free agency… but he’s not a free agent and he’s not expected to be for 2 years so there’s a ton a risk in extending him right now, especially when they’re trying to sort out their cash crunch.
There are only so many $20MM+ AAV contracts a team can have on their payroll and the Cubs are at their limit; they have to pick and choose which contracts benefit them the most going forward and trading Bryant may be worth more than keeping him.
I know that but they could at the very least talk extension. They havent even talked at all about it. He made it clear he wants to test free agency..
Bryant for 4 or 5 players would benefit the Cubs greatly. Donaldson would’ve signed with atlanta already. I think he’ll go to an AL team so he can DH. But Minnesota doesnt make sense they have miguel sano
If Arenado and Rendon are getting $35M a year—what makes you think that Bryant is going to sign for $25M a year? Bryant’s arb number will be over $25M next year. Barring a career altering injury this upcoming season bottom bar would be 7/210. Certainly a guess but with Arenado and Rendon already cemented in—-the bar is set.
If they were to even consider that amount for Bryant, they may as well trade for Arenado who is the much better player for just a bit more money. Trade Contreras and whatever 3 prospects the Rockies want for him
I posted this before, but Bryant’s had a higher WAR, 27.8, from 2015-2019 than Arenado (FanGraphs), Donaldson and Rendon. Whatever you may think of WAR, “much better” doesn’t apply.
Who would you rather have out of the 3? Be honest.
Probably, Arenado. But I don’t think he’s “much better”. The X factor would be how Arenado’s numbers would look without the Coors Field slant
Not too good and it’s even worse if you add the pitching.
Their rotation is good and Darvish looked incredible in the second half.
Bullpen needs to add 2-3 more pieces though, which they easily could. There’s absolutely no reason they cant sign Sipp and McHugh.
Cubs are projected to have the highest WAR in the NLC.
fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team
That’s a laugher!!
Sure, but the offense doesn’t work without a legit leadoff hitter and a logical everyday lineup. I don’t see that leadoff hitter on the current roster. How does Theo sit there and allow the lack of a leadoff hitter stare him in the face and not do something about it?
Which will come first? An answer to the grievance or a penalty for tge Astros?
Genuinely curious what the point of the grievance is at this point. Given Bryant is correct, but if he repeats last year’s production (highly likely), he would stand to clear $26-$28 mil in Arbitration in 2021 anyway, and then sign as a free agent for about that much in AAV. If he badly didn’t want to be a Cub in 2021 (they won’t contend unless Jason Heyward remembers how to hit, Willson Contreras learns how to frame, Lester stops aging right now, Jose Quintana lives up to his prospect hype, and Yu Darvish bothers to clear 180 innings), then I completely understand, but otherwise…
The point of the grievance is that the Cubs will control him in 2021 as opposed to him walking at the end of this season? Pretty sure he’d rather be on a legit contender like the Nats or Braves than a barely-there one like the Cubs. The grievance effects his trade value because teams would be trading for 2 years instead of 1.
That’s what I figured, but I’ve seen articles quote him as wanting to stay a Cub (whatever that’s worth; remember Curt Schilling wanted to be a Yankee? But if it’s true…)
I really doubt that he wants to win the grievance because the cubs aren’t competitive enough. Pretty sure it’s about him going year to year without any long term guaranteed money
Sure if he just dominates the next two years then it won’t the up mattering much, but he could have injuries or ineffectiveness and lose out on tons of money by waiting that extra year to hit FA
The “old Contreras framing issue” again, huh? Pretty good chance if Contreras doesn’t separate his hamstring, Rizzo doesn’t snap his ankle, and/or Baez doesn’t crack his thumb in the last month and a half of the season, the Cubs win the division last year. Only your Lester aging holds water and he already has contributed value for his contract and time in Chicago. I’m sure most Cubs fans will take any regression his last season of his contract for what he brought to the franchise.
Just another case of Manfred dropping the ball. This clown can’t make a decision or have one made for the best interest of baseball. He is probably working on something really important like what to play during the innings in A ball.
I don’t see how Manfred is dropping the ball on this since it’s not his decision. An arbitrator is making the decision and the arbitrator does not work for MLB so…
He could have provided a deadline I suppose. That would have been nice. Or if he did, he could have provided a quicker one.
That’s it Riley, Inciarte & Wilson for Bryant get it done AA.
I have had enough of the Donaldson nonsense already.
That’s a garbage trade that only looks dumber the more you consistently propose it
In other words, trade spare parts the Braves don’t need for a Top 3-5 player at his position? Dream on!
Perhaps Theo could talk to Hayward about restructuring his killing the Cubs contract, he must know that he hasn’t earned what he’s being paid.
4 million for 20 years after retirement could get him off our payroll sooner, just an idea
That won’t happen.
Still $23 million against the luxury tax. Anyhow that is not going to happen, and this is not Heyward’s problem, he owes the Cubs nothing.
So Bryant makes more than Baez and Lindor. I get how that happens it just seems weird when you compare recent performance…
Bryant was a super two so this is 3rd go around, I think this is Lindor 2nd is the reason?
Bryant won both ROY and an MVP award, so this factors into his overall arbitration salary. Neither Lindor nor Baez have done this (yet).
good point
Chafin is a lefty
Why do they keep mentioning how close they came to the “projected salary”? Who ever “projected” the salaries, do they get a stuffed animal or something?
They are just doing their jobs, bro. Personally, I find their arb. projections very interesting and important when trying to figure out overall team payroll obligations for the upcoming season. Cut the guys some slack; they work very hard for very little money and provide us with awesome, up to date and most importantly, FREE information about all things MLB. Just skip the arbitration articles if it bothers you that much.
Go Cubs Go
No Cubs No
I heard that back up Cubs shortstop from the mid 70’s said Ivan DeJesus and the Cubs FO prevented him of being the everyday Shortstop !…his initials are DR !
Ross better get the most out of Schwarber. 600AB =40+homers, 100+RBI, and around .900 OPS. All for 7M
KB should be willing to do an 9yr 225mil deal which would be fair for all at 25 mil per year it is equal to Harper and pays him through age 38. If he truly wants to be a Cub and win he’d accept even leas like 9yr 200 million.
Bryant- 543 AB 31Hr 77RBI Pay 18.6M
Schwarber-529 AB 38HR 92RBI Pay 7M
Interesting. Can Schwarber keep it up though? We have come to expect this from KB but every time we get high on Schwarber, he crashes down to Earth. I hope he can.
I think Schwarber just lacked any kind of consistency under Maddon. Maddon constantly moved him up and down the lineup, benching him against lefties, pulling him late in games, etc. Nothing is a guarantee, but I am 99% sure that a healthy Schwarber who gets 600 ABs, will give you 40+HR and .900 for the next several years. Bryant, on the other hand, I am not sure. I think he will do what he has done so far, which is 30 HR, with a lot of singles pulled to LF and walks to get his numbers to .900 OPS, but Schwarber is the more dangerous hitter for sure
Good post megaj
I think Schwarber was just overmatched often in the first 3 years of his ML career. Madden putting him in the leadoff spot only put more pressure on a young player who was trying to adjust to ML pitching. He appears to have figured things out the 2nd half of last season and was carrying the team for a good stretch in late summer. This will be his age 27 season and I’m looking forward to the next several years from this guy hitting in the 4th or 5th hole.
he was benched vs lefties because he was/is lousy vs lefties and you get pulled late in games in the big leagues when your defense is poor
Bryant 3.8 war 104 r scored 903 ops
Schwarber 2.3 war 82 r scored 831 ops
We all know Bryant is losing grievance. Just announce what we already know .
From my understanding, Bryant always talks about baseball being a business. Bryant is looking for his payday in the near future. We are not sure if it’s going to be the Cubs or some other team when he hits free agency. Odds are it’s going to be with another team and not the Cubs.
The Cubs made their money off of Bryant in his first few seasons with marketing him to him being one of the top jersey sellers in the MLB. People forgot the Ricketts bought the Cubs as a means to make money and not dish out out what Bryant has been expecting when it comes to his pay day.
If he’s going to walk in 2 years, Theo should trade Bryant for prospects who can then be flipped for a legit leadoff hitter. Until this team gets a legit leadoff hitter, the offense is not going to realize its potential.
I know everyone is talking about Bryant…….
but here is the real story of 2020 Cubs………Cubs Bullpen
Ryan,,,Wick,,,,Mills……Cotton……Maples…….Wieck………these guys will be bringing it to opposed batters.
Kimbrel better be in top form……or Ross will pull him !
The more the Cubs do nothing, the more it makes sense.