It wasn’t that long ago that Alex Reyes was arguably baseball’s best pitching prospect — a power right-hander heralded as the Cardinals’ ace of the future, Injuries, however, have decimated Reyes’ past few years. Tommy John surgery plus lat and pectoral strains have limited him to a combined 195 2/3 innings in the past four seasons (despite working almost exclusively as a starter in that time). Still just 25 years of age, Reyes tells Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he hopes to continue as a starter now that he’s healthy, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggests that’s not likely — at least this season.
“It’s going to be tough for him to break our rotation given the talent and the names we have in it,” Mozeliak tells Hummel. “We are going to bring him to camp and stretch him out the best we can. But I think the likelihood of how he most likely contributes to the Cardinals in 2020 is in the bullpen.”
The Cardinals’ rotation consists of Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson and Adam Wainwright. Fifth-starter candidates include Carlos Martinez (who was forced into a relief role by injuries in 2019) and winter pickup Kwang-Hyun Kim, who could work in either the rotation or the ’pen. Right-hander Daniel Ponce de Leon and lefties Genesis Cabrera and Austin Gomber are depth options on the 40-man roster. One would imagine that a healthy Martinez is the best option, but he did excel in a relief capacity in 2019 (3.17 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 9.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.37 HR/9, 56.5 percent ground-ball rate).
Turning back to Reyes, it’s indeed difficult to see how the club could expect him to function as a starter in the short term. He’s thrown just 84 1/3 innings in the past three seasons, including just 40 1/3 frames in 2019. Dropping him back into a starter’s workload would necessitate an enormous increase in his total innings and pitches thrown — and that’s particularly problematic for a pitcher who has never even tossed 120 frames in a single season; Reyes’ career-high innings total is 115 1/3 all the way back in 2015.
That’s not to say that the talented righty doesn’t have any sort of future in the rotation, but between the organization’s pitching depth and Reyes’ injury history, it’s easy to see why the club has its sights set on a relief role in 2020. Looking down the line, Wainwright is only playing on a one-year deal, while Kim is being paid $4MM in both 2020 and 2021. A strong relief effort for Reyes this coming season could well lead to a look as a starter in 2021, but he’ll first need to prove his arm can hold up. The Cardinals control Reyes through the 2023 season.
Not a surprise.
I would still sign a free agent Starter as well.
why? they have so much starting depth.
is that you, Themed?
Cards don’t need pitching as much as they need a middle of the order bat
I agree fannclub6.!!!! Consistent hitting was the glaring problem in 2019. Now—- without a bonafide Clean up hitter to date. Their offense currently looks weaker than 2019.
He can’t start, has sustained injuries as a reliever, what’s the point of counting on him for anything at this point?
I just don’t understand why teams continue to invest in players that cannot stay healthy to produce any positive value.
Here’s an idea, start paying attention to proper pitch mechanics, preparation and pay attention to what causes all these arm injuries.
Newsflash, pitch counts don’t protect pitchers from injuries. You know what does? Proper mechanics, lower body strength, changeups instead of sliders, 85% velocity, ice, proper arm slot angles, conditioning.
What good is a pitcher who throws 98+ if he isn’t available 98% of the time he’s expected to contribute?
You know what teams won championships? Those who have healthy stars, healthy top 3 of the order starting pitching and healthy back end bullpen guys. If a team is counting its 24th -30th best players to win, they are getting the early flights home for the fall.
How many millions of payroll dollars are tied up to pitchers who can’t stay healthy, yet teams are still stupid enough to think, “Man, if this guy can just stay healthy, he’s really going to help us.”
Proof to the point is a guy like Wheeler. The Mets invested what? 6 years of time, money, rehab resources,
…patience, ran much less talented pitchers out there because he was always on the mend or limited and what did they get in return for all their efforts? To watch him pitch against them now that he’s finally healthy – assuming he actually stays healthy.
But he’s the Phillies concern now.
Anywho, if you read this far, thanks…or I’m sorry. Lol
They have control over him and it costs them nothing and he was once the top pitching prospect in baseball. Why would they not try to get him back on the field?
It hardly “costs them nothing”. It’s a roster spot, it’s resources, it’s false hope. This is a guy you just forget about, ship him down to A ball (assuming he can even warm up) and make him earn his way back to the majors. That roster spot he takes up needs to be given to a player that can help a team win. There is simply way too much hope pinned on guys who throw hard that are always hurt who take away opportunities from other “less talented” players.
Oh boy, this is a rough take. They are paying him close to league minimum, which is nothing for a major league club. You don’t cut bait on a guy with the upside of Reyes, especially due to the fact that he has shown he has well above average major league stuff when healthy. It doesn’t matter what his injury history looks like. Who in their system could possibly compare to the big league impact that a healthy Reyes can bring? I’ll even answer that for you. No one is even close. Not even in the same area code. The only scenario where it even makes a remote amount of sense to move on is if he is being traded to strengthen the club.
If he gets injured again, then the roster spot isn’t an issue. If he stays healthy, then he’s well worth the roster spot.
Nobody acted like they’re counting on him to pitch 60 innings a season and eventually take over the closer role. That’d be nice, but they’re not about to give up on a young pitcher who has the talent he has.
I feel like MLB teams would have figured all of this out already if it were this simple. The fact that people get paid millions to fail means it probably isn’t this simple.
Injuries happen to around 30% of all pitchers every season regardless of mechanics. They’re very unpredictable, and there’s only a small correlation between injuries and mechanics.
Now some pitchers are more prone to injury than others, but it’s not like the Cardinals are relying on Reyes to be healthy, and if he does get hurt again, they’ll just put him on the IL while still only paying him relative peanuts. If he does stay healthy, his upside is huge.
Jim stem – the cardinals have nothing invested in Reyes. He has very little major league service time and would still make the league minimum. The only investment is in rehab. This guy is a former top 10 prospect. They have nothing to lose and a possible ace, 8th or 9th inning reliever to gain. You have to stick with that type of potential.
Just look back to what we got out of the injury prone Chris Carpenter. He was a major gamble when we signed him and he won a Cy Young in 2005 and had a 2nd and 3rd place finish. He also got a lot of MVP votes those years. Wainwright has had multiple injuries since 2011 and has come back from those.
While mechanics and the other suggestions you made are very helpful there is no surefire way to prevent injury. People are also very different. Each person has their own proper mechanics. What is perfect for one guy could cause injury to another. I would guess we’ve gotten to the point where technology can help find ways to improve mechanics but nothing is fool proof.
and how could he start at this point?
How could he start? Do they have 5 ACES right now that are untouchable? I don’t see it. He could get road starts over Wainwright. That’s one answer.
He’s been listed as their closer since the end of last season on Roster Resource. They have never said anything about him starting.
The Cardinals never said he would start, but Reyes said he wanted to at their winter warmup this week, that’s where this came from. He may not be their closer either, that’s all speculation at this point. There’s a lot hinging on Carlos Martinez and what role he ends up in.
I believe the Cardinals have stated they are moving Martinez back into the rotation this year.
They have said he will be given the chance to start based on the health of his shoulder and that he is on track health-wise of their expectations. They won’t know if he can actually start until they see him in Spring training, much like last year.
If he could just stay healthy for a full year, that would be a plus.
As they should
2020 is an opportunity to let him get healthy and back to form. waino is most certainly on his farewell tour this year so Reyes steps in next year if all goes as planned. then this time next year there will be a ton of fans complaining that they didn’t spend a bunch of money on one of the big name free agents and that Reyes can’t be relied upon. maybe he works out. maybe he doesn’t. bottom line is, he’s under team control for a while and at some point you have to trust your drafting and development department. all of the big time free agents were unproven prospects at one point that SOMEONE had the patience to let mature. most fans need to pull back the isolated focus and look at the big picture.
Yes, all the big stars were once minor leaguers. But very few draft picks or bonus signing foreign players ever make a championship impact. Proven, successful major leaguers win championships. The teams that have the healthiest, most consistent, talented players win championships yearly. And to go one step further, the best pitching that can be counted on every 5th day, 5 days straight.
Prospects typically win championships for the teams who did NOT draft them. World Series winners sign the good pitchers after the drafting team puts in all the time. In the 2019 World Series, how many of the actual series starting pitchers came up through the Nationals and Astros farm systems? Off the top of my head, I think just one (Strasburg).
Even if this premise is true, the Cardinals are a bad team to make this point with. They are one of the top teams along with probably the Rays at drafting and developing their own pitching talent. Off the top of my head, Hudson, Hicks, Helsley, Flaherty, Wacha, and Martinez were all drafted and developed by the Cardinals (signed in the case of Martinez, but it was the international equivalent of drafting). I may have missed someone, but that is a big chunk of their 2019 contributors. Now add in Gomber, Ponce de Leon, and Reyes and you have large percentage of their pitching staff being home grown talents.
There are also young pitchers yet to establish themselves that they’ve traded away like Joe Kelly, Marco Gonzales, and Luke Weaver who have done well elsewhere.
Anyway, the 2019 Nationals are more of an exception. Most championship teams rely on at least 2 homegrown pitchers in their playoff rotations.
I don’t really care who drafted a player to begin with, it’s where they end up. We’ve turned draft picks in to superstars via trade just like every other team has. Other than the few later round picks such as Pujols, your top talent is determined by your place in the draft.
Trades for top prospects usually involve a player you drafted that has made a major league impact. JD Drew brought us Wainwright who was a first round pick the Cardinals couldn’t have drafted because he was already off the board. Can anyone remember who we traded for Holliday? I don’t think he even made it to the show.
Jake woodford. There’s another homegrown name that will probably contribute in 2020 that I left out.
yeah you’re not gonna get me to bite on that when talking about st Louis. they’re consistently in the playoff picture while never having to completely tear down a roster. they have down years, sure, but it’s pretty nitpicky to complain about one if the most consistent franchises in all of the big 4 major American sports. they’re not perfect, but no one is. when other franchises openly discuss modeling their own philosophies after st Louis, I’d say they’re doing something right. haters gonna hate.
If he makes it out of ST healthy.
Might as well start him. Cards are rebuilding anyways
And the Cards never rebuild…
That was Lea my bad. I came out the womb a Cards fan.
Never will, you a cubs fan right?
Not a chance. I’m a Cards lifer
Big time potential. Until he quits or can’t.throw hard he’ll have a job. It’s strange pitchers aren’t learning to pitch still over 140 years in. Don’t get me wrong there is more than one way I mean trying to throw instead of pitching.
I can’t really agree that they haven’t learned how to pitch. Genetics will always play a major role in someone’s injuries. Back in the day pitcher just pitched through the pain. How else do you think they were able to pitch the ridiculous amount of innings they did with crazy high pitch counts. They limit innings and pitches now days and there are more injuries than ever. Injuries like a UCL tear or Achilles tear like Wainwright had would have just ended a career. I pitched through a torn labrum and rotator cuff all through high school and Jr College. I was still effective or I wouldn’t have played. I even pitched a 2 hit shutout in Varsity as a Sophomore. Once I had it “repaired” it just caused more and worse problems. My surgeon has an excellent reputation and does surgery on a lot of pro athletes, so it’s not like I just had a bad one.
welp, there goes my secret weapon SP with RP eligibility late round fantasy pick once again. In all seriousness though good luck to him, even though I’m a Reds fan I love watching this guy pitch, he’s pure electricity when he’s on
He’s stupid good. His ceiling is as high as anyone’s. He just has to stay healthy
So the closer is Andrew Miller until Hicks maybe comes back, maybe at full strength in Julyish?
Gallegos definitely should be. Miller and Helsley to put out fires.
I’m curious why Helsley hasn’t been mentioned as a possible starter. I could surely be mistaken but I thought he started a good part of his minor league career.
Never in rebuild mode Stl. When Waynoe breaks down Reyes will be there to step up. If he can stay healthy that is
I’ve read all of the comments on this topic. Largely enough, the general consensus seems to be——- as the Cards 25-26 man roster currently is as anticipated —— their 2020 baseball season is based on wishes of many individual players having tremendously large comeback seasons. Many if’s and and but’s, but no rock hard absolutes. Usually, a team that fits that category, are a strapped down mess for the first half of the season. Conscientious organizations make adjustments at the July trading deadline. However, that form of thinking just doesn’t seem to fit the Cardinals philosophies.
That’s somewhat true for the offense (although only Carpenter needs a comeback that’s “tremendously large”), but the pitching, both the starting rotation and bullpen, is excellent (as is the team defense). They’re not likely to repeat the feat entirely, but they did win 100 games in 2015 with excellent pitching and a mediocre offense.
Reyes needs a new surrounding he is the most over rated pitcher the Cards have used to be a million dollar arm and 10 cent head. Now it’s a $1.50 arm and 2 cent head. They should have dealt him to the Marlins when Yelich was available.
They shouldn’t have traded him for Yelich, they just chose the wrong outfielder. Ozuna had a much higher trade value coming off the season he had. But hindsight is 20/20.
I feel like this guy has been a prospect for 30 years. I’m tired of hearing about him.
I’m only thinking about him because I’m reading these comments. I usually forget about him and will just be pleasantly surprised if he comes up. But I hear you.