3:37pm: The White Sox are “willing” to push beyond the five-year, $100MM mark in order to sign Wheeler, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Whether they’ve actually made such an offer isn’t clear.
11:57am: It seems the Wheeler auction could be building to a crescendo. It’s possible and “maybe even probable” that he’ll sign before the Winter Meetings open next week, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).
9:35am: Free agent righty Zack Wheeler is going to break the $100MM barrier with his next contract, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, Wheeler already has at least one offer in hand of at least $100MM.
MLBTR foresaw intense bidding for Wheeler entering the offseason, when we ranked him fourth in earning power among all free agents. It seems our prediction of five years and $100MM — aggressive at the time — will actually end up just on the light side. The question remains how far north of that figure Wheeler will roll.
Rosenthal lists the White Sox, Twins, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays as teams with ongoing interest in Wheeler. That’s a non-exclusive list; quite a few other clubs have also been tied to the 29-year-old. The involvement of such organizations reflects the reason we were so bullish on Wheeler’s market entering the winter. Simply put, he checks a lot of boxes for a lot of teams.
It’ll cost draft compensation to sign Wheeler, but that’s not an overwhelming deterrent for a still-youthful player who possesses top-of-the-rotation stuff. Wheeler has been healthy for two seasons while maintaining a big heater and compelling peripherals. He threw 195 1/3 innings in 2019, which is quite a sum in this day and age. That’s a good sign for a pitcher who battled through health problems before a bounceback ’18 campaign. And it seems teams are taking the view that his 2019 ERA (3.96) doesn’t fully reflect his true talent level.
So how much is too much for a pitcher with Wheeler’s history of arm issues and less-than-perfect platform season? That’s what we may soon find out. But in thinking through his value, it’s worth recalling the broader market situation.
In terms of supply, Wheeler occupies an interesting position. He’s clearly not to the level of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but arguably possesses a much loftier ceiling — with a combination of premium stuff and relative youth — than any of the other available starters. Teams not interested in approaching or exceeding the $200MM level of spending have understandably zeroed in on Wheeler as a potential budget ace. And there’s no shortage of organizations with conceivable interest. Multiple big-spending contenders are chasing top arms along with the teams listed above.
A fool and his money are soon parted.
100% true. Hence why most people are swimming in bad debt.
Nice quote from the Jewish Bible book of Proverbs.
Are you trying to be funny or an antisemite?
Saying the word Jewish isn’t anti-Semitic. Jeeze.
Trout27 – that’s not antisemitic.
Recreational outrage at it’s finest.
The expression likely originated 500 years ago and is credited to an English poet. There is no affiliation with it and Jewish anything, except by those who wish to perpetuate nonsense.
sn0048 – the concept comes from a few different areas of the bible, most specifically Proverbs 21:20: “There is desirable treasure, And oil in the dwelling of the wise, But a foolish man squanders it.”
You basically supported my point inadvertently, which is that the idea isn’t exclusive to one group of people. So why did Texassooner choose to single out or attribute it to Jews? I’m sure you’ll have an answer for that, too.
sn0048 – Maybe you should chill out a bit. I was simply stating that the concept is sourced from a scripture. You should ask Texassooner your question. I don’t speak for him. And perhaps you should re-read his benign comment because you stating he “attributed it to Jews” is a mischaracterization in my opinion.
This has become stupid. Let’s talk baseball.
no bigger fools than people who take that book as factual
Common misconception. The bible is a guide and is not to be taken litteraly, but is instead full of lessons to learn. The anti religious crowd has been crafting this false narrative for some time now.
Lmao. Doesn’t mean that quote is wrong. Look around – people can’t live within their means and most are swimming in bad debt.
that isn’t why people are swimming in debt,
@Dodgethis – sorry, but Christian fundamentalists and old school Catholics definitely take the Bible as literally, in their minds, as possible. Otherwise it would be impossible to present themselves as conservatives. The more liberal Christian denominations like the Unitarians and many others perhaps do not, but these days especially they are pretty overlooked. Not that we should be having this conversation on these boards anyway.
Not to be taken literally? Who taught you that?
No bigger fools than those who tell themselves there is no God.
Living outside of their means is the reason that people go into bad debt. No, I am not talking about a mortgage here.
It’s also a Christian Bible.
I can remember when the White Sox were ‘going to be all in’, on Barry Bonds.
Every year it’s the same ol BS from that organization. Their fans are quite gullible.
If you don’t see that this is a racist joke about Jewish people and money then you are being intentionally dense
Or you are looking for any reason to show off your righteous indignation. Thicken up your skin and get over it, not everything in life is racist.
People can choose to be offended or not to be offended. He says he didn’t mean it that way, it’s your choice.
He says he didn’t mean it that way? Funny, I don’t see a response from the guy.
The old testament predates Christ…
New Testament scriptures teach Christ lead Israel in the desert.
1 Corinthians 10:4 (NKJV): they drank of that spiritual Rock that followed them, and that Rock was Christ. Multiple places refer to Jesus interacting wth them before the incarnation.
My bad, you’re right. I’m a Christian, I believe in the Bible. And it’s rare when a week goes by without someone insulting Christians.
In almost every case it’s an insult bread out of ignorance and contempt. I try not to go out of my way looking for the more subtle of these insults. Most are blatant enough. .
I don’t care if you are religious or not, Proverbs is worth reading. Only a fool wouldn’t get anything out of it.
Was I showing off my righteous indignation? I thought I was just pointing out what was obvious
Though I apologize for assuming that people are being intentionally dense, many are likely not intentional in their density
How does a mid- or small-market team spend over a $100million over several years on a pitcher, especially one with a doubtful physical future? The league is filled with similar players who never perform to the expected level and their enormous salaries reduce their teams’ payroll flexibility. Time will tell, of course, whether signing Wheeler on this kind of deal proves to be foolish, but my guess is that however well he pitches, he will be injured a good portion of the time and his team will never reach its championship goal.
Silly season is in full swing, and this is the #1 example of it.
In 2-3 years it’ll be competition over who is the most upset…..
The ownership and FO of the team that signs him, or the fans of the team that signs him.
Add in the excitement over Diekman, and this is something to watch.
So the White Sox are now “willing” to pay more than $100 million and more than 5 years? Is this supposed to mirror the Cubs’ signing of Lester as a sign that they are now preparing to compete? Say it ain’t so.
It be so
Is this really the going rate for a guy like Wheeler or are teams assuming progression when offering up 100+mil? I’d just take a lot more caution when you are bidding on “stuff” or “raw talent” they don’t always equate to production.
Who will be that last minute Mystery Team who jumps in with a bid ?
Nippon Ham Fighters.
What did that ham do to deserve all these attacks?
Or are they battling against all pork products?
I’ve always assumed it was a team dedicated to the Japanese who fought using ham, not against ham. Like if you attacked them, they’d throw frozen hams at you..
Wheeler would probably be interested if they were the Ham Fighters, but they’re just the Fighters from Nippon Ham, so it’s not as appealing of a destination as the Ham Fighters of Nippon would be.
That was a lot of words. Is the ham ok or not?
Not during the holidays its not
What a turkey
@bigbadjohnny not me.
man, you must be bad if even the mystery team doesnt want you!
Not the Braves
Whoever signs him will regret signing him. He has a history of arm problems. He had only 1 year that you can call top 10 pitcher year. Reminds me very much of other starters that failed big time. I just don’t see him as a ace type pitcher.
Look what happen to Jake Arrieta……….we all knew in Chicago his arm was tired !
Arrieta had even better numbers than Wheeler. Wheeler is a #3 starter on many teams so giving him a $100 million contract is just crazy.
He’d be #4 on the Reds. And some people may even argue he’d be the #5
It amazes me how people can make comments like you guys and actually think they sound good. Wheeler has a career 3.77 ERA and a 3.91 xFIP based on last year’s numbers that would be 25th and 26th respectively. To say he’s a number 3 starter is laughable. He could certainly bomb but based on his numbers he’s a high #2 / low #1
Wheeler also has a career 100 era+, 102 this past season which makes him league average.
arc89: If you believe that Jake Arrieta (baseball-reference.com/players/a/arrieja01.shtml) had better numbers with the Orioles before his trade to the Cubs than what Zack Wheeler (baseball-reference.com/players/w/wheelza01.shtml) has put up with the Mets as he enters free agency you are out of your mind.
He was slotted in on the Mets as their #3 guy so he had a comfort zone that will disappear if/when he signs for $100 Million+ which is ridiculous money any way you look at it.
He’ll be expected to earn that contract and the expectations of performance that goes with it.
He’ll have 2 ways to go on; live up to the hype and earn those dollars or slide back to a middle of the rotation pitcher whether that’s based on injury, the team behind him etc.
Only the future will tell!
People are not backing up their conclusions with data.
That’s not what he’s referring to. He’s referring to Arrieta’s numbers with the Cubs and what has happened since he left.
Wheeler is a great pitcher; people who are not a Met’s fan don’t appreciate his real value; Callaway and the Met’s did not use him well and let him throw to one of the worst catchers in the Majors who even Thor complained about.
Callaway stole a win from one of Wheeler’s last starts by keeping him in at over a 100 pitches when he was clearly out of gas to give up 2 runs and take the loss; Met’s were probably trying to drive his value down.
Can’t trust the Tampons and Van Lunchwagon!
ERA+ is a skewed stat to use for Wheeler, for the simple fact that he’s had a terrible defense beghind him for a number of years, and an arguably below average set of receivers to throw to.
When healthy, he’s very very good. Will he justify the contract he gets? I don’t know, there’s risk. But it’s not through lack of talent.
rocky7, Excellent point.. I’m not commenting on Wheeler or anyone else in particular, but I have wondered how/if mega contracts negatively affect the beneficiary. While some rise to the occasion, others crash and burn, and that begs the question, was it the crushing pressure to perform? Take Trout, Machado, Harper, Stanton, Rodriguez, Pujols, Cano, Price, etc., etc. Will big dollars affect Cole, Strasberg, others? When you’re going to be making a good fraction of a billion dollars, it has to be on your mind that you are expected to perform – mightily.
Totally right on arc.
I wonder if that’s for a 5 year deal…or a 6 year deal.
Six figures!! For sure That eliminates the White Sox. However that won’t stop the White Sox hype machine to play this for all its worth.
I for one hope they don’t at price tag. if they come out and say we tried but weren’t willing to go as high as other teams I would be fine with that. you don’t make a purchase just to make a purchase. it still has to be good value.
Chisox suck, … just ask Ozzie.
If Theo had more money to blow, he would give Wheeler $250M, Cole $400M, and Rendon $500M. But Papa Ricketts ripped up his credit cards.
White Sox already offered six figures to a player, last season.
But frankly, I’m fine with the White Sox passing, because that is a hefty sum to give a pitcher who has a lengthy history of arm problems, and who is a good not great starter.
If it gets much more than 100 million, I’d move along and focus on guys like Ryu, Keuchel and Hamels.
Definitely just a one year deal
This was what I was going to say. Jeff stating that ” It seems our prediction of five years and $100MM — aggressive at the time — will actually end up just on the light side” is getting a bit ahead of himself without even knowing it is a five-year offer rather than six.
If MLBTR has projected Austin Romine to get a 3-year, $10m deal, and there were reports that he had a $10m offer, which could be 4 years, in hand, would it make sense to at that point say the 3/$10m prediction was on the light side? No.
And if Wheeler gets greedy and holds out for some higher figure, these interested teams could end up signing Bumgarner, Hamels, Keuchel, and Ryu instead. In which case money may have dried up and Wheeler could end up with *less* than the prediction.
But I guess “seems” was used and that kind of lets you get away with whatever.
You don’t really have a clue how negotiations work do you?
Please Twins go get em
Right I’m hoping we get him too. That would make for a good start to the offseason for the twins.
Put my name on the list of impressed with the Twins. But, I’m more of a skeptic that they can even go beyond the estimates that we’re aware of, which it seems bidding has surpassed. Time to drop down a tier in SP.
Yap – huge mistake for some team.
Team moves down in draft pays 20 m a year.
No
This is a joke, right? Someone is going to regret this bigly.
I laughed out loud, in a public crapper. Well played.
Buyer’s remorse futures could be an excellent investment.
Wow, that’s almost more than it cost to build Guaranteed Rate stadium.
That is more than Reinsdorf pays his entire team, in a year. Sox apologists go along with it, for the last 8 losing years.
Lol
Guaranteed Low Attendance Field
And it’s half of what Theo would offer him if he hadn’t already blown all the team’s money on crap free agents.
Haters gonna hate… I’m optimistic about the coming years for the ChiSox. Was guessing 21 would be the year they’d start competing but this offseason could make me believe they’ll make a run in 20. Go Sox!!
What is he waiting for to take that deal?
Good thing you are not an agent
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Jacob/Shia Labeouf:
“See, I find that everybody has a number and it’s usually an exact number, so what is yours?”
Bretton/Josh Brolin:
“More.”
You guys are wayyyyy (with five y’s) off this year with your free agent predictions. Weren’t you going to publish the chat transcript(s) of the “debate” between all the writers this year? That would be very interesting to see your reasoning behind your guesses and which writers need to be demoted to the minor leagues (Bleacher Report).
Go take your insulin shot
Wilford’s the best satire on this board. Eat a snickers and laugh.
Did anyone predict more than we did for Wheeler?
We were never going to publish a transcript, exactly, but would like to do an edited version of the debate, yeah. Need to revisit that.
Who cares about accuracy? Because predicting baseball salaries is srs bsniss?
Rosenthal is so often wrong with his rumors it’s hard to take him seriously sometimes.
how is one off with rumors? If a high level exec tells him something and he reports it then the reporting is 100% accurate. He’s not speculating or predicting
If Wheeler brings in over $100mil the Mets should ask for the farm on a Syndergaard trade.
They already were asking for the farm that’s why he is still a Met.
I mean I could be wrong or have an unpopular opinion but Thor is better than Wheeler. Especially with some years of control for a much lower price.
If I am a team the loses out on Wheeler, Cole, and Strasburg – Wheeler being the worst of the 3 while still collecting over $100 – that may entice me to be more willing to deal the prospects this year that the Mets asked for last year.
It’s not an unpopular opinion. Syndergaard is without a doubt the better pitcher. Last year was by far Syndergaard’s worst year and he was still about as good as Wheeler. If the Mets/Callaway had listened to him and allowed him to pitch to Nido instead of Ramos, Syndergaard would have have another fantastic season.
Syndergaard should be better than Wheeler but he has not been the past two years. As a long suffering Met fan if not deGrom on the mound I want wheeler. At least the last two years
Also a Mets fan here, but Syndergaard was unquestionably the better pitcher in 2018 and in 2019 they had almost identical numbers. However, if you look at Syndergaard’s numbers with Nido vs. Ramos, it’s clear that Syndergaard just doesn’t jibe with Ramos.
Wild Guess.
I’ll Go $135 for Six.
Any team that goes over $100mil + the draft pick and J2 $ loss is making a mistake.
Don’t do it White Sox.
Why not? Sox haven’t made the playoffs in 15 years? Who cares about the money, it’s not yours. Sox with Wheeler are a better team and have a better shot to make the playoffs… pull the trigger.
But they do have a budget. Sure Wheeler makes the Sox better, but so does Keuchel, Hamels and Kole Calhoun for example. That trio will probably cost less than $100m guaranteed combined. That way Kopech, Cease, and Lopez can compete for the last 2 spots at the beginning of the season. Rodon should be back for the second half and Dane Dunning should be ready to compete for a rotation spot in 2021. Dunning had TJ surgery in March.
I think they can get Wheeler and Hamles. Calhoun? Are you kidding? I wouldn’t take that bum for free. The Angles don’t even want him.
A bum in RF would be an upgrade over who has played there the last year or two for the White Sox.
Neither do the angels
Yes…they’ll probably get both Wheeler and Hamels, and it sounds like that long anticipated trade for Joc Pederson is going to play out as well. They have to get the big pitcher this free agency period or their WS aspirations in the next few years start to dry up. They’ll have plenty of firepower in that line-up. Trading top prospects before 2021 also shortens the window considerably, (see the Cubs)
I agree, it’s a major mistake, because of his history with arm troubles.
It makes more sense to play it safe and get multiple guys for the rotation – which they need – who have less risk in terms of injury.
If Kopech rounds out the way he is projected, they may not need an ace to the staff.
But they certainly need guys for the back end. .
I thought the Strasburg contract was bad a couple years ago because of his past arm issues. I don’t think that anymore.
Going to have to agree. I wouldn’t be upset if they signed him, but at this point, it sounds like the price is going to be waaaay too high.
Wow, is there any other contract that is expected to be a bad one in advanced that a team will still actually pay for some dumb reason? This may become the pitcher version of the Jason Heyward contract.
If I were a team, I’d pass.
Twins fans should be hoping this doesn’t happen again. Trust me as a Marlins fan who’s seen this guy in our division. Your Twins would be repeating bad history…with a much higher price tag. You did this move before when you signed Ricky Nolasco and Mike Pelfrey. Wheeler is just another one of them waiting to happen again.
I agree, at this point If the White Sox are willing to give him 6+ years, they can have him
I just don’t feel like Wheeler will improve in the analytically deprived White sox
I say he’ll get around what Darvish and Corbin got the past 2 years. About 6 years 130 million
Buyer beware.
That will be an bad contract for whoever signs him.
IF… he stays healthy it might work out.
Hope WSox get outbid on this particular target as much as they need a couple starters. Too much reason for doubt. Get MadBum for less and still have room for another quality arm.
MadBum is a back end starter and doesn’t help the White Sox much. If they can’t get Wheeler, they need to get Strausburg or Cole….which isn’t happening.
White Sox are probably a top end pitcher or two away from competing. If they miss out on Wheeler, they’re probably primed to start another rebuild soon.
Totally agree… If the Sox can learn anything from the cross town Chubs, it should be the window is small and pitching is key. Great positions players aren’t enough. I think if any Chubs fan was being honest they would say the Chubs were in large part a disappointment.
Hahaha, 4 straight post seasons, a ring the bank, their young CHAMPIONSHIP core still intact… yeah, the CUBS are just fine. I don’t know why Northwest Indiana White SUX fans keep obsessing over anything Cubs. Stop trying to compare your “rebuild” to their SUCCESSFUL rebuild. Many have tried what the Cubs/Astros have done, VERY FEW actually achieve it. Remember, Kenny and Hahn are the same clueless and inept front office that claimed to be “ALL IN” when they traded Tatis Jr(STUD) for James NO GAME Sheilds only to end up with a worse record than teams ACTIVELY tanking. They’ve been bottom feeders since 2011, no reason to think that will change anytime soon. Haha
@
bryzzo_2016 You really don’t know much about baseball judging by that comment. The Sox compare very favorably with both the Cubs and Astros for position players when adding Robert and Madrigal to the team this spring. Tatis was an unknown when the Sox had him, he came out of nowhere to become the great prospect that he did. You seem to be obsessing over the Sox more than any Sox fans obsess over the Cubs. Stop kidding yourself.
What, start another rebuild if they miss out on Wheeler? Wheeler has been league average based on era+. The White Sox could sign two lesser pitchers and a RF for less than $100m and compete for the division this upcoming season. They have Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Rodon the second half to go along with Giolito for 2020. Dane Dunning and possibly Jonathan Stiever to compete for starts by 2021. Kopech was pitching in Arizona 2 months ago and was touching 100. They have decent young talent still on the way and payroll flexibility even after signing Grandal.
Yeah, seems like a very low IQ comment.
Madbum will give up 40 home runs in G Rate.
Weak contact guys like Ryu or Keuchel are better fits.
He’ll surrender solo shots for sure per his track record, but built up again to log innings. Ryu worry is reliability/health and BP can use another starter that goes deeper into game for $ spent.
Keuchel nice 2nd piece lacking QO.
Comiskey Park* just because it has a new name doesnt make it a good name. White Sox will always be Comiskey Park and Indians will always be Jacobs Field. That’s like the Orilea changing their Ballpark name from Orioles Park at Camden Yard to Under Armour Park/Field
Ok Boomer
The recent big pitching signings (Price, Sale, Darvish, etc) have shown the dangers involved with these contracts. I wouldn’t go past five years, $22 MM per, tops.
Bow out Reds…remember that guy named Homer?!
Dude, he’s better than Disco and Mahle and maybe even Bauer. Every contract carries risk and it’s not my money so sign him
No question…but they aren’t on the hook for 100+ Mill to Disco and Mahle either.
It’s not my money is such a stupid, casual fan comment. You do realize the team you root for spent have infinity money, right? Using what is available in the most efficient manner is a positive, even if it, “isn’t your money”.
Look, I want him as a Brave desperately. He’s from here, grew up a brave, and I believe he’d provide us with the next step to getting over the hump of the first round (assuming we fill other holes appropriately). But gosh, i was on the fence with the $100 million projection. Now that it’s higher, it’s starting to not look worth it. :/. Especially with his injury history …
Hope you get him for that price, but remember: he didn’t help the Mets get anywhere, even when they had pitchers with names other than deGrom.
Braves in a tough spot: you might already be good enough to win the division, depending on what the Nats and Phils do. On the other hand, is Wheeler the difference between losing to the Cards in the NLDS? The Braves need an ace; not sure Wheeler is the guy
Mets didn’t/don’t have the hitting the Braves do. I would expect him to have more success in Atlanta. I also believe Wheeler is on the cusp of being an ace type pitcher. But I would concede that you’re prob ultimately right… he’s prob not truly ace and I guess he might not be the guy that takes us to the next lvl in playoff. But I do think he’s add a bunch more wins in the regular season putting us in a better position to have a favorable matchup in the playoffs. In theory at least lol
Sure glad the Giants traded him for the Mets manager.
On one hand I feel like its too much, on the other hand I feel like the Jays wont spend this money elsewhere so it doesnt matter.
I see the Jays targeting Ryu not wheeler, no draft pick attached 3 years @25 mil with an option year
Lol ryu is 4 years older
For some, the velocity and spin rates run counter to the claims of concern about arm issues. He sure seems less risky than Price or Sale at this point. And remember Strasburg also has an injury history – he may get double the money Wheeler signs for.
Wheeler is no Strasburg. Not saying I’d pay $200M for Stras vs. $100M for Wheeler, just saying the comparison is not helpful
going to be Jake Arietta 2.0. some team will give him a ridiculous contract and will regret it.
Wheeler doesn’t even have Arrietta’s track record. Homer Bailey would be a better comp. A guy with good stuff and below average results.
im talking about the structure of the contract not pitcher comparisons. I could see around what Arrietta got. Any team that gives this man 100 million dollars is high af
Arrieta with a longer injury history and only a half year of really strong production.
Half a year? WTF are you smoking? Half a year of insane off the charts all-time great production. But he was “good” all his years in Chicago. His worst year was arguably 2013 when he went 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.2 WHIP.
That 3.96 ERA is very misleading. Anyone who has watched even one New York Mets game can tell you their bullpen is god awful and inherited runs allowed to score by the Mets bullpen was in the top five in MLB. Had wheeler had a bullpen behind him that was any good you can take that 3.96 and figure it be more around 3.10.
If you are figuring that, don’t get a job involving calculations. Maybe you could be a poet.
He’s spot on though. The peripherals say he’s a much better pitcher than his ERA. 3.25 and 3.48 fip the last two years. Put him on a better team, and he competes for the Cy Young.
I am looking at WHIP #s and its not any where close to ace #s. The bullpen has nothing to do with hits and walks just wins and loses.
AND inherited runs. The entire point of the above post.
In theory. But there are WAY too many variables involved to say that as a fact. They said that about Jose Quintana forever and he always proved to be the same mediocre pitcher who looked better in the stat sheet than on the field.
Plus, if he is that good, he should stop putting so many runners on base for relievers to allow to score.
I like Wheeler and think he is a better pitcher than his numbers really show, but to say he’d be a Cy Young candidate on a different team may be an overstep considering the Cy Young in the NL has been on the same team as he has. Depending on where Wheeler ends up, we could see him mold into a solid #1/#2, but to say he will be on DeGrom’s level is not realistic.
Maybe wheeler shouldnt allow so many base runners to begin with????
This reminds me of the Homer Bailey deal. Cincy, if you’re reading this, get out a there and fill other spots!! You’ve already overpaid for Moose (But I understand), take a swing at Didi and some of the other non tenders (Steven Souza, Tijuan Walker, etc), maybe a trade partner like the A’s for Semien possibly.. I’m all over the place, but happy to see some action!
If you take Homer Baily’s best two years, he was never as good as Wheeler. Not even close.
WAR for Baily 24th. WAR for Wheeler 9th.
Different stats, same result. Massive Overpay.
That’s exactly what I said…reeks of Bailey…
I’ma guess Yankees, Padres, Astros, or Angels
This reeks of something the Padres will eagerly step in and shortly after regret.
I will throat punch Eppler if hes in these discussions. Good Lord no.
For pitchers the last two years Wheeler is 9th in baseball in WAR. Tenth in FIP. Twelfth in innings.
The last two years Wheeler has been a top of the rotation starter and has great stuff. That;s the cost of a top of the rotation starter in 2019.
Could he get hurt? Sure, every pitcher could get hurt.
He’s had three solid seasons in his career but I’m not sure those seasons justify over $100 million contract. Obviously, someone is going to pay it and I hope he does well, but I just hope that it’s not my Angels. Seems like a high risk, high reward guy and the Angels need proven commodities on the hill.
Wheeler has a great up side with his stuff. Still relatively young at age 29. But up to now is primarily a 5 to 6 inning pitcher. Having reached 100 pitches by then. Tends to give up the long ball, which doesn’t bode well with the teams mentioned. Their parks being home run havens.
The Mets will have to move on, especially with their bad luck with the long term contracts of Cespedes and Wright.
Last years high priced free agents didn’t make their new teams better. ( Machado and Harper ) Better
off looking for medium priced players who fill a need..Sign guys like Lemahieu, last year, who not only provided talent but filled multiple needs with his flexibility.
Let’s stop thinking that signing high priced free agents is the only way to go.
OTOH, Scherzer, Strasburg, and Rendon all made the Nats a better club.
Ask the Astros how they would’ve made out with Verlander, Cole, Greinke, etc.
You can’t generalize about the high-price guys not being “worth it,” any more than you can generalize that they’re a necessity. Paying the big dollars doesn’t guarantee wins, but it sure doesn’t hurt.
But it often does hurt. Like Pujols, Ellsbury or Machado.
Hes closer to a Jeff Samardzija (cubs years) than a Gerrit Cole. Someone is about to overspend. By a lot.
He’s Ricky Nolasco if Nolasco had an injury history. $100 mil? For what?
For having a skill set that few others can match or exceed in the current free agent market
opinions on a salary cap in baseball?
there’s already a salary cap; look at the teams that are willing to spend, who are trying to reset theirs.
The larger problem, it seems to me, is the teams who are not trying to compete. It’s like they decide ahead of time that they can’t win the WS, so they don’t sign players.
Makes me think it’s time to shorten the 162-game schedule and expand the playoffs. Gives less-lucrative teams a chance to make the playoffs, where anything can happen in a short series, which incentivizes teams to gain and retain competiveness. It’s a problem that guys instrumental to the Nats’ WS season were afterthoughts–Kendrick, Cabrera, Parra, Adams.
They need a salary floor of about $150MM, with a hefty tax on teams who don’t meet it, a tax that makes it more onerous not to meet the floor than to spend the floor itself. As for fewer games and more playoff teams, bah!!! Especially the more playoff teams. Hate to see the 162 game season de-valued by letting even more teams in the backdoor at the end of the season. It’s already sickening to watch Wild Card teams steal the championship by having a good couple of week run after being inferior for 162 games. 2 WC’s is enough. If fifteen teams can’t compete for five spots, then we definitely need a floor to increase the competition for those spots, not increase the spots so teams who aren’t trying can get in.
the salary cap that is already in place is prohibitive. there should be only a floor.
Yeah! What about a salary floor mixed with a non-competitiveness tax? Like if your team is sub-500 and sub-100 mil 3 years in a row l you have to pay a cheapskate tax…
There should also be a salary wall for hanging pictures.
this is where I hopr Klentak makes his leave. this will look like the Corbin contract will – great off the start, then the injuries will hit.
Was Rosenthal the one that said Kuechel was going to sit out last season?
Zack Wheeler has also been overshadowed by Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard in the Mets rotation. Clearly deGrom is at another level as one of MLB’s elite aces but Wheeler compares favorably with ‘Thor’ and has actually outperformed him by most metrics since returning to good health in 2018. Each of those Mets pitchers was also negatively impacted by Mets starting catcher Wilson Ramos who is a poor pitch framer, was well below average with with his CS% in 2019 and received criticism for his prep work with some, most notably from Syndergaard.
One can only imagine how Wheeler might perform signing with a team like the White Sox who now have two catchers with some defensive chops, Yasmani Grandal with his extraordinary framing ability along with James McCann and his ability to thwart the oppositions running game. Each of the White Sox catchers have also received praise in their leadership ability, prep work with pitchers. and high baseball IQ at MLB’s most demanding position.
The White Sox also have one of MLB’s most revered pitching coaches in Don Cooper. The combination of his wisdom and experience along with their two impactful catchers could be just the formula needed to fully realize Wheeler’s ace potential. The appeal of becoming an instant TOR along with Lucas Giolito might also be appealing to Wheeler with the dollars offered to him being relatively equal.
White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf has already shown a willingness to spend big this offseason and maybe even ‘overpay’ with the recent signings of free agents Grandal and Jose Abreu. I would not be a bit surprised in the $100MM+ offer he reportedly has on the table was from the White Sox.
That’s a pretty long list you’ve constructed as to why he’ll be better than he’s been. And that equates to a lot of “ifs”. If he wasn’t locked in as the Met’s #3. If he had a better catcher. If so and so was his pitching coach. Look, I like the guy. And he does eat close to 200 innings a year. Maybe that’s what a solid #2 starter just costs these days. But the word “Ace” is not even reserved for No. 1 starters. It’s reserved for a handful of them. And very few “aces” remain “aces” for multiple seasons.
If all those Mets pitchers are so good, why did they do nothing as a unit except get media hype?
The proof is in the pudding. Other than deGrom, all of those other Mets pitchers (Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz esp[cially) are overrated.
If you have a cool name(Thor) and pitch in New York, you’ll get overhyped
Certainly agree, talentwise. The comparison was meant to be from a bidding team’s perspective related to any apprehension about arm health. This was just a passive comment on why some teams may not share the concerns raised by previous posts, and I think the subject matter was also discussed in the article – the fastball and the secondaries. This view by some teams would drive the price up. I personally would rather see that kind of money spent on a Rendon-type who gives you 1200-1300 innings of excellence on both sides of the baseball.
The White Sox priority right now is veteran starting pitching to help anchor a promising but very young pitching staff that also has 3 of its better options returning or still rehabbing from TJ surgery in Michael Kopech, Carlos Rodon and Dane Dunning. Zack Wheeler is at the right age and comes with the most potential upside of any SP in this FA class not named Gerrit Cole. He’s already overcome his own TJ procedure, just as Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease have who are two of the three virtual locks to be in the White Sox opening day rotation along with Reynaldo Lopez.
It’s fairly certain that Wheeler will cost less than half of the commitment made to Cole and maybe 2/3 of what an older Stephen Strasburg will receive who has also rebounded nicely form his own TJ procedure. The White Sox could easily afford Wheeler, another shorter term backend veteran starter, a bullpen arm and a RF this offseason if they choose to use free agency to answer all those needs. Certainly Rick Hahn will explore the trade market as well, particularly if he plans on landing his future core RF this winter. The White Sox not only have the financial means to continue improving via free agency this offseason, even after their signing of Yasmani Grandal and Jose Abreu, but also the prospect capital to acquire a their future core RF if need be.
Is Jet Sports using Boras’ play book and feeding Heyman and Rosenthal this information?
Some club is going to get burned badly when they sign wheeler. He’s an injury waiting to happen.
I can’t believe MLB teams’ stupidity.
Was hoping the Mets would re-sign him, but if he’s gonna end up getting Patrick Corbin money someone else can have him.
Never been an All-Star
Never pitched in the postseason
Never thrown 200 innings
Never won more than 12 games
Never received a Cy Young vote
Yep, sounds like a $100-million dollar ace.
Careful: Rendon was never an AS until this year. That’s a badly misleading statistic when it comes to assessing value. The fact that Wheeler pitches might just be the sixth or seventh best SP between DC and NY doesn’t devalue him in a market where only two of those seven are presently FAs.
so what about the other things he mentioned?
ASG is a joke who care.
the 200 innings one is a concern for me. He does not the workload to be paid like an ace, and he is very injury prone. Buyer beware for sure. This could end very badly if a team throws over 100 million at him.
Is he injury prone, or did he recover from his injury? Lots of quality pitchers out there post-TJ. If that scares you away, you’ll be stocking a lot of untested young arms
195 innings in 2019 is close enough to 200. He also pitched better as the season progressed.
Why is that a concern for you? Baseball is a different game than it used to be. The amount of pitchers that have thrown 200+ innings in a year from 2016-present is 13-15 each year. Those pitchers are going away quickly.
Priggs its of no concern to me. I wonder why people would even consider giving this guy $100+ million for doing nothing in his career pushing the age of 30. At least do something. Anything. He’s done nice things, not great things. That does not make him a $100-mllion type pitcher.
Natsfan, big difference between Rendon and Wheeler.
3B only picks 2-3 reps, a LOT more SP are represented.
Also, unfortunately, there is this belief Nolan Arenado is better than Rendon. Never has been and never will. Thanks to the Coors effect his numbers look great.
Wheeler is not a $100-million dollar pitcher unless he’s receiving an 8-year deal.
At least that is data. Most of it Anecdotal data, but at least it’s data.
Never Been an All Star. – WAR, 6th best starter in NL 2018. 8th best in 2019.
Never pitched in a post season. So?
Never throw 200 innings. – Fourth in IP the last two years in the NL.
Never won more than 12 games? Neither did Cy Young winner deGrom the last two yeas. Same team.
Never Received a Cy Young vote. – He’s not one of the best five pitchers in the NL. Close, but not top five. Is that the criteria?
The last two years he’s one of the best dozen pitchers in baseball. With a higher WAR than Grienke, Syndegaard, Nola, Strasburg, Kershaw. .
DeGrom is a 2-time Cy Young award winner. Wheeler hasn’t received a vote. Add the lack of wins, innings, success and anything of real substance, he doesn’t deserve a 9-figure contract.
Then again, your Angels are quite happy wasting money. He can head to Anaheim and experience mediocrity for the rest of his career.
He’s not a Top 12 pitcher in baseball. Please stop using progressive stat arguments to lift a #2 or 3 pitcher at-best.
You’re stepping on your own argument… you use deGrom as and example yet deGrom has the same lack of wins
Did you not read macstruts’ argument correctly? DeGrom won each of his Cy Young’s without surpassing the 12-win mark. How, then, is lack of wins still part of your argument against Wheeler if it was meaningless with DeGrom? You can have a pitcher with an ERA of 9 on a team that averages 10 runs per game and finish with over 20 wins, but he still wouldn’t be in contention for Cy Young with that ERA. Wins are too dependent on offense and things a pitcher can’t control to be that important a factor.
Also, macstruts mentioned that Wheeler has finished in the top 4 (although Fangraphs has him at 6) in innings for the last two years in the NL (377.2 IP). So how, this time, can lack of innings be an argument against him? Very few pitchers these days pitch over 200 innings in a season if you haven’t already noticed.
Finally, you end your argument by saying that he is a #2 or 3 starter, but also, if you haven’t noticed, the AAV of a 2 or 3 starter these days is around what Wheeler’s likely AAV will end up being. The only reason we’re now hearing about him going into 9 figures is because it seems the White Sox have tacked on a sixth year to separate themselves from the other teams bidding on him. If your argument is that the AAV is too high, his contract will likely fall into the range of better-than-mid-rotation pitchers, which is what you said he is. And if your argument is length of contract, he has shown, post TJ surgery, to be among the more durable starting pitchers in the NL, which macstruts mentioned. Do you care to clarify your argument, or are you just going to revert to childish mocking again because you’ve noticed your argument has a few holes and can’t bear to admit that?
I don’t believe a guy who’s never done anything in his career deserves $100-mil at 5 years. Again….
He’s never received a Cy Young vote. That should have ended the conversation. The Top 5 paid pitchers in baseball have Cy Youngs, some will be Hall of Famers. #6 according to Spotrac is Chris Sale, who’s career is far and away better than Wheelers.
RIght now the discuss could turn into an AAV that would rank in the Top 10, maybe Top 8. Zack Wheeler is not a Top 10 pitcher in baseball. He would be hard-pressed to be a Top 10 pitcher in the National League. With zero postseason experience all we have is promise given Wheeler’s excellent stuff. That I cannot deny. His production does not measure up to the contract he and his agent seem to command.
Whatever holes you thought you made was nothing but a dream. I understand you didn’t like the way I answered Macstruts. I get that you defended him. He needs it. However, coming at me with what you wrote was a lightweight. I stand by the argument not to pay an unproven yet talented commodity that kind of money. We’ll see how it plays out.
Prices certainly going up with more than 8 teams trying to be competitive. Love it for baseball.
If they think that’s what he’s going to get then they can stop posting the Bluejays as one of the teams. The front office and ownership we have will never do that for any player, they haven’t in their whole 43 history.
Minnesota… 6/120M last year is a club option with a 5M buyout. Throw in some incentives with Cy young votes or ERA+ to get the AAV to 22-24M, Done deal. Not worth it, but thats the market
atlanta braves get him and donaldson
6 years and just over $100 million. Too much on both.
Something tells me at at those $’s some GM is going to be very disappointed is what he’s getting for his money.
Zack Wheeler: 3.96 ERA over 195.1 innings. 8.7 K/9. 31 starts. 29 years old.
Julio Teheran: 3.82 ERA over 176 innings. 7.8 K/9 33 starts 28 years old.
Seems pretty close, but since Wheeler seems to underperform his peripherals while Teheran consistently outperforms his, one will make $100 million dollars, while the other will be lucky to get 2 years/$20 million. Give me Teheran.
100 million for 10 wins and a 3.75 ERA.
Dallas Keuchel?
there are plenty of former Sears employees that can put up better numbers than Wheeler, and at a fraction of the cost. wake up team owners, stop ruining free agency with these moronic paydays !! WAKE UP!
Really, plenty of Sears employees?
Right, people who throw 97+ can be found in the battery department.
you don’t need to throw 97 to be successful, but thank you for playing anyways
You do need to throw harder than 85 though, Charles Manson.
Go to Sears, get that guy, get 10% of what he makes, then you can retire for life.
Sears? Do you think you are begin rational? No one else does.
If signing high priced free agents is so important, why does Tampa and Oakland do so well? Is it possible that finding undervalued players that fit the teams needs may be the more efficient way to go.
Signing big ticket players is good PR but doesn’t mean better results. The Met’s are currently paying four long term contracts ( deGrom, Cano, Cespedes, Wright ) with only deGrom contributing at a high level.
They’re also paying for Bobby Bonilla too.
Do so well? The Rays and A’s haven’t won a postseason series in over a decade.
White Sox? I highly doubt it. Reinsdorf not giving 100 million to a guy who plays every 5th day.
He overpaid for Grandal and crazier things have happened. No one expected james shields to go to san Diego. No one saw lorenzo Cain going back to Milwaukee or even Hosmer to SD.
We’ll see. And if it happens, will you eat crow?
If Rangers do this I think they should look to move Minor for prospects or a young MLB ready guy to fill another hole. Wheeler, Lynn, Gibson, Allard, Burke/Palumbo is a promising rotation.
Wheeler’s career adjusted ERA is 100,dead solid average.
He strikes out a batter per inning, which is also league average.
His career WHIP is slightly better than league average 1.294 to 1.333
His career K to BB ratio is dead on average,2..69.
He’s very good about not giving up home runs,hence the nice FIP.
All in all, a league average pitcher who has yet to throw 200 innings in a season.
If you’re a GM who values that at 100 million plus total for 5 or 6 years,I hope you’re from a big market club.A swing and a miss on that contract ,for that player, will strangle a smaller market team.
I know one thing…when you have to dig deep to look for the other stats to make a case for a guy that can’t come through with the basic stats, there is something wrong. All of the TRUE Ace pitchers can be seen as Aces just by looking at the basic traditional stats (ERA, IP, Wins-majority of the time). Going with a guy whose performances can’t even show there, is a gamble if you expect him to be the foundation of your rotation.
Lol
He’s very fond of himself. He wants 100mil+ but will anyone bite? Or will he “settle” for 4/85?
Knock on wood but this off-season seems to be moving compared to the past two
The owners are colluding to end collusion before CBA renegotiation.
Er, CBT (brain fart).
if it is 100 for 5 im ok as a sox fan. if it becomes a bidding war than get out. we can trade for a SP and sign a guy like hamels to bolster rotation.
I’ll take a stupid guess, angels Yankees or brewers
5/$100m is fine. That’s a lot of money, but let’s stop pretending like that’s ace money in today’s marketplace:
Price 7/$217m
Scherzer 7/$210m
Greinke 6/$207m
Sale 5/$145m
Corbin 6/$140m
DeGrom 5/$138m
Wheeler’s offer is closer in-kind to Jordan Zimmerman 5/$110m
Wheeler isn’t an Ace, so why would you compare him to one in terms of money? He is a solid #2 starter. So all of those deals you mentioned should be substantially more than what he gets.
What’s an ace? The last two years he’s been a top dozen pitcher in baseball. Are you saying there are only ten aces in baseball?
He’s a top of the rotation starter,. That’s not saying he will be going forward, but the last two years he has been.
I’ll take my chances with a top of the rotation starter that may get better.
Little curious why everyone seems to think Wheeler is an ace simply because he was offered 100m. Since when is the 200+ Cole will get, as an ace, or the money Price, Mad Max, Stras, Sale, Kershaw, etc all got, or will get, equal to the 100ish Wheeler MIGHT get? He’s a solid no.2/3 starter depending on the rotation he’s in (exactly what he was in NY) and it would be ignorant to forget Wheeler is a groundball pitcher who was playing behind one of the worst defenses in the NL so it’s simply outrageous to say “hey this guy sucks cause he had a high ERA I’d rather have Teheran”
Is he a calculated risk? yes, like the vast majority of fat free agent contracts there is risk but to act like Wheeler is a bum is just asinine. He’s the 3rd best arm available on the market and will be paid like it, idk whats so odd about this
These guys just want to whine, complain, and be negative. It’s sad really.
I hope the Sox get him and make a run this season. Hahn has done a great job as GM through this rebuild, about to see how the seeds he’s sown will turn out!
Ming specifically said $100MM for Wheeler is not the same as the larger amounts paid to aces.
If it’s the White Sox who gets Wheeler I think they aren’t expecting him to be a true “ace.” I would think that they want a solid 2 or 3 guy who can make a major improvement to their rotation. Wheeler would do that, Assuming Giolito is as good as he was last year and assuming that Kopech and Cease can pitch to their potential that’s a pretty good rotation. Yes, I know. Kopech and Cease are unproven but the upside is pretty high. Paying 100 million for 5 years of a 2-3 isn’t bad.
Wheeler isn’t replacing Giolito. He would be replacing the endless line of terrible starters they ran out there last year as their 4-5 guy.
It’s not my money. I hope the White Sox pull the trigger. Then get a decent RF and an arm or two for the pen and I think they can compete in the Central.
The White Sox should drop out of the bidding if it surpasses $25MM per year. That’s Cole/Strasburg territory. Those two will be dominate for at least five more years. Wheeler might be a solid middle rotation guy for three years if he stays healthy. Spend the money on the best talent available.
SOOO glad the Angels are not in on Wheeler. Strasburg yes. Cole Yes. Wheeler, heck no.
This will be just another bad pitcher contract $$$$. Team better get an insurance policy
He’s a good pitcher, but I don’t think he’s worth $100 Million, sorry.
Why not? What do you put his value at and why?
Can someone inform me why a guy with career stats of 44-38, 3.77 ERA and 1 CG/Shutout is getting a 9 figure deal? Or at least 9 figure offers?
Is it cause he’s young and they’re “hoping” it’ll be worth it? Paying someone based on “projections” is foolish, you’re only worth what you give. But hey, if anyone wants to spend 100 million on a pitcher who hasn’t been barely above average for his career, let em.
No one has cares about wins and a prediction of future performance. Or CG or Shutouts.
As for ERA, how many teams are worse at catching a baseball than the Mets. How many teams have a worse pen?
Advance metrics are very kind to him and the last two years he’s 6th in the NL in IP, Fourth in FIP and WAR.
There is a reason why he’s going for 100+ million. .
5/100, 6/115 or whatever it ends at…it could end up being a solid market value deal, maybe it puts the team signing him over the top. That alone would be worth it.
Sox will get him I guarantee
Mark my words, he’ll be another Zimmerman
No ones ever marked anyone’s words.
I hope the Reds are not seriously going after Wheeler @ 100mil+, there are others who would fit the bill as a 4 or 5 th starter they need
He just seems like AJ Burnett to me.
Burnett was underrated.
The desperation for SP is on full display.
If the price goes above 110MM. The Rangers are better off offering Strasburg 5/160MM or Cole 7/240MM.
White Sox willing to push past 5 years/$100 million for Wheeler so why not go after Strasburg who’s projected to go for 5 years/150 million?
Exactly. Cole or Strasburg for 7 yrs/ $35MM is a steal for a team with financial flexibility like the White Sox. He’ll be Cy Young caliber for five years, which works for their contention window. Who cares after that.
That extra 15 million a year gets you a right fielders and potentially a decent reliever. Moncada is going to start getting paid soon. White sox aren’t going to have a 200 million payroll with a 3000 person fan base
You must have flunked math in the fourth grade.
Ok
How in the blue blazes is this guy being courted for 100 mil for 5 yrs? He’s never won more than 12 games a year and he’s never even had 200 ks in a season. His career ERA is close to 4. He’s been injured for parts of two years and he’s also missed two full years due to TJ surgery. Not to mention that he’s pushing 30.- maybe you get 3 prime years from him tops- assuming he isn’t injured….. again!
I’ve got a bad feeling about him. Anyone remember the Jason Schmidt-Dodgers deal?
If it turns into a bidding war, I’d rather just sign Keuchel and Teheran on the cheap. At least they can eat innings between letting Giolito/Lopez/Cease develop and getting Kopech/Rodon/Dunning back to full strength.
Either that or sack up and go after the big fish.
Teheran? Good god.
Ryu. When healthy, his performance is far and away better than Wheeler’s. Plus he might settle for a 2 plus an option.
Cardinals should sign Cole and Rendon to pair with Flarherty and Goldschmidt. They have money coming off the books in Yadi, Carpenter, Ozuna (who just left) Fowler, and Lizard man. They could trade Liz to Anaheim as part of a trade for Adell and use the extra roster space to find a gem (Yates from outside or Pham from within).
The CWS are old school especially when it comes to pitching. They don’t ignore sabermetrics but they put more faith in watching video on players & looking for flaws
they can correct. They’ve operated that way ever since Cooper became the pitching coach.
They are not going to offer Wheeler $100M/5 (no doubt some deferred) unless they are convinced he can perform at an ace level. More often than not, the CWS acquire arms that improve in value.. That affords them the opportunity to acquire more talent when they decide the cost outweighs the performance.
Sometimes the names they move surprise but more often than not the deals make sense.
The only way Wheeler stays at that price is if the CWS are winning playoff games.
There is no way Wheeler is going to get $100M/5 from them & a full NTC.
JR & the front office have been a lot more stingy on NTC’s when it comes to pitchers
vs position players. At best Wheeler will get a very limited NTC where he can list 6-10
teams he doesn’t want to go to.
If the money is close that could be the deal breaker as many other teams are willing to
cave on full NTC’s.
Mets are the big losers here. Instead of turning Wheeler into a few blue chip prospects they actually traded their own prospects to bring in his replacement. Massive fail from the mets FO.
Castillo, Gray, Bauer, Wheeler, Disco is a hell of a rotation. Wheeler has a top spin rate on his 4 seem fastball (like Sonny Gray), but the Mets had him throwing too many 2 seams. They prolly think they can extract more value out of him than the Mets did
I guess the Phillies finally came through on their “spend stupid money” promise lol
It sounds like this went down to the wire & his wife being from NJ was the deciding factor.
Neither the Phils nor the CWS were offering no-trade clauses of any kind so the CWS tried
to outbid the Phils. In the end he took less $.
Being “willing” and writing the number down are two different things.