The White Sox have signed Dallas Keuchel, Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion and Gio Gonzalez this winter, extended Jose Abreu and acquired Nomar Mazara in a trade with the Rangers. Even with those additions, GM Rick Hahn said on a conference call to introduce Keuchel today that he has space to add further players and is also planning to keep some resources set aside for midseason acquisitions (Twitter link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times).
Between Keuchel, Grandal, Encarnacion, Gonzalez and Abreu, the White Sox added $65MM in payroll to the 2020 books — to say nothing of a $5.7MM projected arbitration salary for Mazara. In all, they’ve doled out a guaranteed $195.5MM plus Mazara’s impending salary, wherever it may land.
It’s the most aggressive offseason from the Sox since a 2014-15 offseason that saw them spend a combined $134MM on David Robertson, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Zach Duke, Emilio Bonifacio and Gordon Beckham in addition to their acquisition of Jeff Samardzija. But even with this winter’s slate of additions, the Sox have just $122MM committed to next year’s payroll. That’s thanks largely to a young core of pre-arbitration or already-locked up talents, including Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Eloy Jimenez and Aaron Bummer.
That affordable crop of rising stars and the expected contributions from a slate of pre-arb players and top prospects — Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal — gives the Sox some long-term flexibility, too, although perhaps not quite as much as one would think. Chicago has $67MM on the books for 2021, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, not including arbitration salaries for Mazara, Moncada, Giolito, Bummer, Carlos Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez. And in 2022 they actually have more money on the books than in 2021 ($72.75MM), thanks to the backloaded nature of Abreu’s contract and some built-in raises in the Anderson and Jimenez extensions. Add in second-time arbitration raises for Moncada, Giolito and Bummer, and the Sox’ 2022 payroll could already be expected to come in north of $90MM.
None of that is to say that the Sox are facing some sort of logjam down the road, but speculatively speaking, those mounting long-term commitments could make a shorter-term pickup preferable when looking to augment the 2020 club. Hahn confirmed today what was reported last week (Twitter link via Van Schouwen): the Sox are looking to improve the team’s bullpen for the upcoming season. With most of the top relievers off the board, a short-term deal with a free agent along the lines of Will Harris or Steve Cishek (among many other still-available arms) seems to be a sensible pursuit. Surely the Sox will also explore the trade route as well when looking for relief reinforcements.
The exact route the ChiSox will take probably isn’t even clear to Hahn and his staff just yet, but today’s comments only reaffirm that the club isn’t done just yet.
I’ve seen White Sox fans hammer this front office before and during this off-season, but I think they’ve done a fine job the past few years. I think more of baseball will adopt the strategy of locking up prospects long term. The reward outweighs the risk in my opinion, even worse case scenario like a John Singleton didn’t really prevent the Astros from becoming what they are today.
They may not be shelling out 200Mil contracts, but I think they’ve been extremely efficient with their payroll flexibility, and if anything, learned a lesson from the Cubs in not giving out a Heyward sized contract that comes back to bite them. Hope this team performs as well as they project on paper. They are certainly set up as good as anyone for long term success.
I was pretty much typing this same thing when you posted
As a Cubs fan, and I might add I never hated the Sox I love baseball.
Couldn’t agree more with your statement the Cubs did over pay in a lot of ways but they won World Series which I have to admit I never thought I would see in my lifetime.. it’s easy to spend other people’s money but you never see the Yankees crying poor and every time you watch a Cubs game their stadium is packed the rooftops which they own most of I do believe , are also packed. I like the Sox moves, it’s nice to see that they’re trying to be competitive again
Agreed. As well as the Cubs rebuild went, it goes to show what overpaying and long term contracts can do to cripple a franchise from being able to compete long-term. Even with the deep pockets of the Ricketts.
winner winner chicken dinner. white sox dominate hot stove
Don’t ever say “winner winner chicken dinner” again.
Whiner whiner chicken dinner?
Agreed, teams that sign the big super star position players usually don’t do well in the next season, plus teams that win the winter usually don’t do well either. I think the Sox might be an exeption to the rule, last year’s free agents really didn’t do that well. The best way to acquire players lately has been through trades.
They have made good, but not dynamic moves. They have 3 1st base/ DH candidates on the roster.
I read elsewhere where the moves underrated by fans are those where a team has an “F” at a certain position and upgrades it to “C.”. Trouble is the Sox RF situation went from an F- to an F+, and I don’t think the pitching staff was really upgraded very much at all. Since this team can’t field a lick, run bases, or pitch much, there’s going to be a lot of pressure on this strikeout prone, low OBP offense to score runs…and I still don’t think it’s ready to consistently do that. It’s still around a .500 team. Now that’s progress, but I don’t expect most Sox fans to respect that kind of accomplishment. But while they can hope for more, they should be satisfied with winning as much as they lose. It’s been awhile, and you need to crawl before you walk, much less run.
Words on a page. Lots of words.
daniel hudson, pedro strop, brandon kintzler all makes sense as I assume focus would be on relief pitching
Id love hudson back on a fair deal
2/12 with a club option for a 3rd
Hudson probably gets $12 for 1 year, not 2. None of the free agent relievers are worth the risk.
Hudson and Cishek would be terrific!
Sox should sign Hudson 2/12. I like Burdi and Fulmer in bullpen.
Fulmer. Frye
Burdi Bummer
Herrada
Marshall
Colome
Hudson
Don’t forget Hamilton
I’m not sold Herrera. He worried all year last year. I think he is losing it. I’m not sure about Fulmer either. I like him in college and had hope for him but he is to inconsistent to me.
I love it when I see Renteria call in Fulmer. BOOM SHA KA LA KA.
Best new Sox bullpen piece is Stiever. Just like the star of Buehrle’s and Sale’s career was in the bullpen, Stiever can pitch in relief in 2020 before joining the rotation in 2021.
Stiever will be a starter in AA. Bit of a rush to get called up in 2020.
Kelvin Herrera two non-arm injuries in the past 16 months. The first was a Lisfranc ligament tear in his left foot as a National in late August of 2018 that required surgery. He wasn’t at full strength during spring training and was ‘eased’ back into the White Sox bullpen early in 2019. Herrera had a decent stretch in June when it appeared he finally put that issue behind him when he suffered an oblique injury in July that cost him a few weeks on the IL. He did finish the season with a very strong September, finally resembling the guy we all saw in Kansas City.
Since Herrera’s injuries weren’t arm related, with his strong 2019 finish and no further health setbacks next spring I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he returned as a dominate setup reliever or potentially even the White Sox closer if Alex Colome isn’t quite as fortunate with his own pitching luck which advanced metrics insists he had last season.
Jah Kelvin is a righteous dude when he’s not sick. Much like Ferris
Or Hudson & Harris
With all due respect to the legitimate superstars, I will glady take 15ish years of solid players/low risk-high upside prospects (best I can come up with for Mazara) for about 200 mil as compared to 8-10 years of a 200+ mil contract. Add a couple solid but unspectacular bullpen arms and I love the offseason
White Sox are shooting for the 2015 World Series.
I don’t think so.
Get a life
Cubs aren’t going back anytime soon lmao
Ha-ha! With a fully healthy Kelvin Herrera and the fulfillment of my wish the front office adds versatile FA Ben Zobrist this offseason that just might be a possibility.
Why he olde
Ben Zobrist is a ‘young’ 38 although I suspect his heartbreaking divorce early last season added a few gray hairs to his red beard. Provided he doesn’t retire to spend more time with his three young children. Zobrist would be an ideal fit to round out the White Sox 26-man roster in 2020. He is a versatile, high contact switch-hitter who can offer additional veteran leadership to a predominately young White Sox team looking to contend in 2020 with his vast resume of postseason experience that also includes 2 recent World Series rings in 2015 and 2016.
Zobrist had an abbreviated and rough 2019 season which had more to do with his off the field problems than his ability between the lines. Check out Zobrist’s numbers from 2018 (baseball-reference.com/players/z/zobribe01.shtml) and also recall that he was a Gold Glove finalist at 2B as recently as 2017. Zobrist could keep 2B warm until Nick Madrigal debuts in 2020 while also providing a nice compliment to lefty slugger Nomar Mazara in RF who can’t hit RHP. In addition to 2B, Zobrist received plenty of reps in RF and LF with the Cubs while also filling in at every other position besides C and P. He figures to be a relatively cheap one year investment that could pay great dividends to the White Sox in 2020.
I still wouldn’t mind seeing the White Sox sign Yasiel Puig to be their regular RF with Mazara becoming their backup in RF, LF and DH while still garnering 300-400 PA’s strictly hitting versus RHP. If Puig proves to be too expensive in terms of years or dollars or he has had some bad blood with Jose Abreu or Yasmani Grandal in the past then Zobrist seems like a nice alternative.
Keone Kela & Kyle Crick to the White Sox for RHP Jonathon Steiver, 1B Gavin Sheets & LHP Bernardo Flores.
cute.
@Johnny Baseball
I don’t think you are living in a realistic world there buddy.
Kela and Crick project to be worth the same fWAR in 2020 as Flores alone — and cost about $3 million more. Not to mention all of Kela’s off the field issues, it’s not even clear he has any surplus value or that anyone wants him. Crick was worth negative WAR last year and is 27, I’m not sure anyone wants him either except a rebuilding team like the Tigers.
Meanwhile Flores is basically a major league ready #5 starter. Gavin Sheets raked in AA the second half of last year and is probably in our top 10 prospects now.
And Stiever’s current projections are that by the end of this year he will already be better than Kela ever was at minimum, and with a ceiling closer to a #2 or #3 Starter.
And that’s not just me saying that about Stiever, that’s the prospect writer’s at Baseball America. He’s a top-50 prospect by 6 months from now as long as he doesn’t get injured. His floor is basically closer-quality bullpen arm better than Kela has ever been and without any of the off-field stuff.
Anyway, my point is, no. No one would ever make that trade.
Umm well, I am pretty sure the Sox are looking for BP help and Kela did have a sub 2 era last year. I nor you have any knowledge of what Kela’s off field issues were other than that there were some. There are no excuses for it but the measures taken were precautionary and that is all that is known. His actions did not affect his performance though. While Crick was hurt last year but has shown promise previously and has a lot of control left. As far as their value goes a GM would be stupid to start out negotiations low enabling them to work down to a deal rather than pigeon holing them selves hoping they can work up.to a better deal..
I do agree w/ your analysis of Steiver and he would be a main target IMO if any deal happened between those teams. Gavin Sheets also looked promising but I think he is expendable since he is blocked behind Abreu, Collins & Vaughn and may not make it the MLB on that roster.. Flores is a low ranked LHP and was thrown in to add on the initial asking price for negotiations sake.
I agree that Sheets is blocked by Collins/Vaughn/Abreu/Mercedes (and if he ever returns to health our 2018 first round pick Jake Burger). but I doubt the Sox will be willing to trade him now as he is just starting to rise up the prospect charts. Selling low on a rising prospect is never a good idea.
The White Sox need for more bullpen arms has been pretty widely overstated. We have a ton of organizational depth.
For example, Stiever is ready to be added to the bullpen on opening day if they need to rush him. But they won’t because they don’t need to. There are still enough FA guys available.
That’s why Stiever would be off the table in any BP trade– why trade him when you could just promote him and keep his 6 years of control? He already has an elite FB and an elite CB.
I don’t think the Sox would trade Stiever straight up for Josh Hader even though he has 4 years of control and is the best closer in the game.. They certainly aren’t trading Stiever+ for Keone Kela and his 1 year of control.
KK has had problems now with multiple organizations and bad rumors about him of all sorts. Who knows what the truth is, but there sure is a lot of smoke around him. The White Sox are a team that is built very carefully around having a good clubhouse. We just have an extra like 20 million to keep Abreu just for that extra veteran leadership factor. I don’t see us adding a wildcard like Kela to that. Also, yeah, he had a 2.1 ERA last year. But his FIP was 3.5. That’s why his fWAR was only 0.4
But *if* Kela didn’t have the off-field issues, I would say a straight deal for Flores might be possible.
I love the Sox prospects and would agree that Steiver looks like a future solid MLB pitcher, but the Sox would trade him in a heartbeat for Josh Hader. Prospect valuations tend to get a little crazy. Hader has been arguably the best closer in the majors the last several years for gosh sakes….
Stiever in the bullpen in 2020 just like how Buehrle and Sale started their careers in the pen.
Kela’s a bum and a cancer. No thanks.
Or worst
Really nice blueprint of a re-build here from a mid market team , wait until your youngsters are ready then add some nice/ not too risky long term free agents to supplement……..I think fans could get on board more with re-builds if they knew this day would come but sadly for many the money just never follows…. Minnesota im looking right at you first!
Staying right in the Div what the hell is Cle doing even pondering trading Lindor/Clev at all?
Id be sick to my stomach if I were a Cle Fan…. even if they get to April 1st unscathed its gonna be a Major League (the movie) scenario playing out for them before the trade deadline and fans will be playing for the next 3-4 yrs in April/May this year…….. what a bad enviornment for everyone
Since when is Chicago a mid market?
Are you serious ? Thats exactly what they are when the time is right, yes they have had low payrolls the last couple years (hence re-build!! above) but they are in the middle now-
2011- 7th highest
2015 – 15th exactly middle
2019 – 29th 2nd lowest
I dont even know which direction you think they are other than Mid?
He’s saying how on earth is a team from Chicago mid-market? Chicago is an enormous market. Not how much they’re spending, but what their market is.
You’re delusional if you think the Sox are anything more than a mid-market team. Yes, Chicago is clearly a big market, but it’s clearly owned by the other team.
Bottom 10 atendance. Bottom 10 TV deal. Struggle to find top tier sponsors. (actually had to go with Modelo as main beer sponsor in ’17 after getting dumped by Miller)
Size of the city is meaningless when so few care..
K.
Look, all teams make over the cap or 210 million in profit according to Forbes, so their are no small markets. The problem is their should be a floor on spending at least at 100 million a year. This makes everyone try and win.
And don’t forget, ‘bottom 3 ownership’. Reinsdorf loves to spend our tax money. Or Florida’s or Arizona’s.
FWIW Modelo is 100 times better than Miller.
Who the hell drinks Miller? Barf.
Are you being intentionally obtuse?
The OP was about $. Miller as a sponsor brings in a whole lot more than Modelo.
That’s debatable. The White Sox ended their deal with Miller after 30 years, not the other way around. Americans don’t drink that beer flavored water like they used to. The Sox know this, and have adjusted.
Is that why they jumped to Budweiser first chance they got?
Does carrying all that water get tiring?
Dont think its a bottom 10 tv deal?
Do you spend all day and all night coming up with novel ways to whine about White Sox inc? Must be a lonely life
Ummmm yeah, Modelo is the #1 selling beer in Chicago in dollar sales as of last year… ahead of bud and miller…
The White Sox are a mid-market team only because they have an owner who has historically treats them like a class A affiliate.
He has dumb-downed the base so much with his cries of being poor that a 122 million payroll is cause for dancing in the street.
Please.
What is he trying to accomplish?
Win the MLB championship or the State Class 7A ?
The guy’s goal is to keep the base thirsty. That’s all these transactions have amounted to.
He’s paradigm is an under-budgeted team catching lightening in a bottle.
It may have worked with his 2005 Damn Yankees revival. It’ll take a bigger mambo this time.
Stop being deluded by this ownership.
Had the state had called Reinsdorf’s bluff and allowed him to move to Florida into that awful stadium, he would have been out of sports decades ago.
As it is, he wouldn’t have fielded a team better than the Rays and they have trouble drawing.
@JD Candello
You ARE joking, right? Cleveland fans “sick to their stomachs.”? Well, since Vegas has us co-favorites with the Twins for the division and Fangraphs has us narrow favorites, yeah, bring on that sickness, sister!
Sox fan is delusional if they think the Indians are going away anytime soon or that they are somehow weaker than last year. Guess again.
Well Avory the whole statement was IF they trade Lindor and Clev but hey follow your own narrative if that suits you better….. I followed that by even saying if you get to April 1st your still gonna have that uneasy feeling all the way to the trade deadline (lets face it you guys do bad the first 3 months odds are its a fire-sale-
Ive got nothing against Cle, Im just saying if I WERE a Cle fan id be on pins and needles from here till the deadline
I love what the Sox are doing. Get us some more Hahn! Go sox!
I’m a Cubs fan but not a Sox hater. Love what the White Sox are doing. I may have to come over to the dark side. I mean south side.
Hahn is a very savvy GM.
Any room on the White Sox bandwagon
as I move closer to the edge?
Sox fans
Bisoxual
Technically speaking, wouldn’t ‘bisoxual’ mean being a White Sox and Red Sox fan? If there are any centenarian + White Sox fans still alive who supported the Black Sox that term might also be applicable.
I’ve been a die-hard Cub and White Sox fan since the early 1960’s. Most local fans believe I am suffering from a far worse disorder and have told me as much.
It’s ok to go both ways
Bandwagon? No sir. Sox For Life!
its probably fine.
the common thread in both fanbases (other than location) is the tendency to be constantly disappointed. welcome aboard.
The Darkside is pretty sweet, until Disney buys it.
Sure. Actually know quite a few former Cub fans who grew up in the North or NW burbs, moved to the city after college, and became Sox fans (personal experience). Prefer the Sox for the park and the underdog feel, but not a Cubs hater either. Ended up going in on Sox season tickets with a group of Tribune reporters back when the Trib owned the Cubs. The reporters became Sox fans and haven’t looked back. Welcome aboard!
Meanwhile on the Northside………Cubs Mgmt. are saving their pennies to watch the Cubs on their new network !
Meanwhile, in Arizona, the Diamonsbacks moves are just as relevant to what the White Sox are doing as the Cubs.
Lol
Yep, and don’t leave out the Reds, if they land Ozuna or Castellanos they could be contenders.
Sign Daniel Hudson! Then the off-season will be finalized.
The key to the rebuild is signing Yoan to a long term deal. Dont get put in to a situation like the Cubs are going through.
Extending 3B Yoan Moncada who has 4 remaining years of team control, 3 more as an arbitration eligible starting in 2021, would be a good idea. An equally smart move would have the White Sox locking up both CF Luis Robert and 2B Nick Madrigal to Eloy Jimenez type extensions prior to opening day.
Of course, all this shouldn’t preclude the White Sox from adding an impactful bullpen arm or two along with a complimentary bat to pair with lefty hitting Nomar Mazara who is best suited facing RHP.
Sox are loading up on 2nd and third tier declining assets to make sure they can cry poor when Mookie Betts, THE answer for RF, is available next year.
The 160ip vesting clause for Keuchel to get 4/75.5 is especially crazytownbananapants.
K.
Is that fun? Replying “K” like that?
“Now pitching for the Minnesota Twins…um…somebody…I think.”
Send your resume to the White Sox to bolster their Analytics Department.
So the Sox should not have signed Kuechel because otherwise they would sign Mookie Betts next year?
Chicken tacos are back at taco bell. Just sayin.
You can put it on the board….YES!!! Paulie’s “crazytownbananapants” has officially come out of the closet.
Btw: In my world at least, a vesting option based on IP, GS or time off the IL is a whole lot smarter for Dallas Keuchel or just about any decent SP on the wrong side of 30 than other more popular ones these days like player opt-outs or mutual opt-outs. I have been pushing for a Keuchel signing for some time now and always suggested a vesting option or two be included in any contract with him. I’m glad Rick Hahn took my advice.
Keuchel,Gonzales were 2 of the pitchers most likely to throw pitches within 1 baseball width of the strike zone. They live on the edges, which is where Grandal is his best. Those extra couple of strikes a game can make a big difference for all the CWS pitchers and teach Collins and other young catchers “his leaning” to quote Yogi Berra. Sign Moncada, Giolito, Robert and Madrigal now and have flexibility later.
Why do Sox fans keep perpetuating this esily disproven myth?
Keuchel will LOSE strikes this year.
Flowers and B. McCann are a better pitch-framing duo than Grandal and J McCann.
Look it up.
And Grandal gains no strikes, because, wait for it…he threw to Grandal last year!
Dude, you sound like you need some sleep. Food? Something.
See my Taco Bell post above.
Oh that dog and pony show will be a hoot. You can already hear the excuses.
I want affluent sportsmen running the White Sox, the Bulls and the Bears for that matter.
It’s ridiculous these teams are not perineal contenders.
Talking a lot of good stuff only to get plastered by the twins. White Sox aren’t even better than the Indians at this point
Sox reliving 2015 all over again.
Failures by the Reds and Philles with this same approach also taught them nothing
This is the recipe for sustained success
Teams with sustained success develop draft picks and J2 signees
They allow that talent to fully develop, then fill in the missing pieces with top tier talent.
That’s the problem.
You know this team can’t develop draft picks or amateurs.
This spending spree is an indictment of their poor scouting and development efforts.
I don’t mind what they are doing though, because I have no faith that anyone drafted outside the top ten by Hahn will amount to anything more than a bench piece.
It is what it is.
We’ve developed plenty of pitchers over the years.
And Matthew Thompson and Andrew Dalquist (2nd and 3rd round picks from last year) were both considered really really good drafts by outside analysts. Most people were surprised that either of them fell as low as they did to the Sox.
In 2-3 years we could be talking about the next wave of Sox Pitching that will be showing up. Maybe we should stick to mostly drafting pitchers and trading for/signing position players
Bernardo? Lopez? Rodon? And there are a host of ex-Sox relievers bouncing around the MLB. I think a few of you guys are being to critical. They’re finally following a sensible plan to contend, instead of wasting money fruitlessly on washed up players. They have much to prove, but you guys should be hopeful. Enjoy the journey.
If you’re calling Flores and Rodon success stories, your bar is so low you’re gonna trip on it.
Lopez was part of a trade, not draft or J2. Also hasn’t been good.
Remember four years ago, when the rotation of the future was supposed to include, Spencer Adams, Carson Fulmer, Erik Johnson and Tyler Danish?
Remember two years ago, when it was supposed to include Alec Hansen, Jordan Stephens, with Zack Burdi as closer, set up by Carson Fulmer?
Hahn’s pitching prospect list is littered with failures, notably of guys drafted or directly signed by the team.
If this doesn’t work, the lack of yield from prospects will be a major contributing factor, because they neither played for the team, nor provided enough value for trades.
There is a reason the best they could do on the trade market was Mazara. It’s because all of the secondary prospects had terrible seasons last year.
I’m excited too. But I’m also wary given this team’s and this GM’s track record.
Now there’s someone who is seeing clearly. The measure of a team isn’t how much money it is willing to spend–that’s a lazy fan’s assessment–but how much payoff there is from drafting, signing, and player development, as well as shrewd trades. That’s where consistently winning ballclubs come from, not flashy free agent signings. This isn’t the NBA.
I seem to remember that “four years ago”(December 2015) the rotation of the future was Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Carson Fulmer and pick one of the others. Sale and “Q” still had multiple years of cheap team control available to the White Sox at that time which they cashed in for a better future rotation three years ago (December 2016) when Rich Hahn convinced Kenny Williams and Jerry Reinsdorf that a total rebuild was a better plan that being “mired in mediocrity” with incessant retools and reloads.
So in fact, “two years ago” the White Sox future rotation looked more like it does as we post today: Lucas Giolito, Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Reynaldo Lopez, Carlos Rodon, Dane Dunning along with Alec Hansen and Jordan Stephens bringing up the rear. With the 3-4 year commitment just given to veteran Dallas Keuchel I see a pretty darn good future rotation going forward, one with a great deal of balance, depth and a lot of potential TOR arms. But what do I know?
Your right have been a lot of failed picks as pitchers, also Chris Sale. I am very hopeful, Hahn is making good decisions to me but that does not insure the outcome. Also team is on track to be good for a while and is flexible financially.
You missed the point.
The rebuild, which I hope is successful, is almost completely reliant upon players acquired in the Sale, Q, and Eaton deals, and high-priced free agent acquisitions. You can also toss in an expensive Cuban free agent, and a few top five picks.
The team under Hahn had generated almost no depth from most of its draft picks, from rookie free agents, or from smaller trades for prospects. That is an indictment of the team’s ability to develop its own talent, and it has made for a very shallow rebuild in terms of depth, especially with pitching.
Lopez has been shaky at best, with no third pitch and Cease is going to have to work on serious command issues. It’s not inconceivable that both wil need to move to the bullpen.
Kopech, Dunning and Rodon are all coming off of TJS. While I have no concerns with Kopech, Dunning is a finesse pitcher who can’t afford a loss in velocity, and Rodon is pretty much cooked as a starter.
Other franchises who draft well can find guys to fill these voids. Hahn, on the other hand, has acted terrified to call up young starters, and even relievers. Why? The guys out of his own system aren’t very good.
If Kopech isn’t ready, if Cease isn’t ready, if Lopez is Lopez, the rotation will be very mediocre. And because the minor league prospects after the untouchables have struggled, there isn’t much room to make serious trades.
I hope this works, but everything is riding on Robert, Madrigal, Kopech, Cease hitting on high ceilings very quickly, and other players rebounding or avoiding regressions.
There is little room for error due to a lack of organizational depth that has existed throughout the Hahn era.
^this^
I’m, of course, rooting for this rebuild to work so that the last 3+ years weren’t for nought.
My anger is due to broken promises made by this FO.
Hahn talked about building a “critical mass” of prospects. Poor development has left them short on home-grown talent and expendable trade capital.
Hahn promised the talent would dictate contention. Instead, they are rehashing failed strategies in an attempt to force the window open.
Relying heavily on players coming off injuries, who’ve been inneffective or have zero major league plate appearances (Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Robert, Madrigal, Jimene, Mazara) is not letting the talent dictate anything.
The excuse of needing to go for it now while Moncada and Giolito are under team control is the one they used in ’15 with Sale, Q, Eaton and Abreu) It was, obviously, a flop.
Every team lacks depth somewhere. I’ll be the first to admit the Sox have been a poorly managed organization in the past. I’m certainly no fan of Reinsdorf and his games. KW can’t and GarPax can take a hike, too. But Sox fans (and even casual observers) have reason to be excited about the young talent they’ve assembled.
This ain’t Cleveland—any rebuild longer than four years is too long to justify for a market the size of Chicago. They don’t have time to invest half a decade into building the farm system. All we can do now is hope the Sox can finally attract the attention of an elite free agent to help push this team into serious championship contention. Betts would be a perfect fit (fingers crossed).
I have the White Sox at 84 Wins in 2020……not enough for Playoff spot yet.
we’re high variance.
The ZiPS projection system expects this young core:
Eloy, Robert, Nomar, Tim, Madrigal, Kopech, Cease, Lopez, and Rodon to be worth about 16 WAR.
But if you include all the individual 32%-68% outcomes for each player (1 standard deviation) you get a truly insane picture.
Those nine guys who are expected to have about 16 WAR all together have a combined variance within 1 standard deviation of 9 WAR – 29 WAR.
Add into that the Moncada and Giolito issues. Both of them are projected to regress significantly, but there are good reasons to think they won’t. If Moncada simply stays healthy or keeps getting better as 24 year old phenomena tend to do, that will more than make up for his BABIP regression. And nothing about Giolito’s mechanics from last year lead scouts to believe he should regress.
So the two of them could easily outperform their projections by 2-4 WAR total.
—–
Yeah, the Projections systems have the Sox right around 84 wins. 82-87 by most analysts. But with HIGH VARIANCE. There is up to 18 WAR in untapped potential on that roster in all those young players. Obviously it won’t all come out, but some of it very likely will.
High variance implies lack of consistency in performance. You are right that the potential is there but I caution against adding the standard deviations. You can only do that with the means.
Say you have two normal means of 50 with variances of 16, standard deviations of 4. When you combine them, the mean is 100, the variance is 32, the standard deviation is the square root of 32, between 5 and 6, not 8. That assumes independence but if not you take correlation into account the number still won’t reach 8 for standard deviation.
High variance in this case is due to youth and lack of MLB track record. Not inconsistency. Guys like Cease, Kopech, Jimenez, Robert, and Madrigal don’t have enough data points to project reliably.
I didn’t say inconsistency. I said lack of consistency. There’s a difference. I agree that there is limited data. That makes consistency somewhat unachievable.
Right, in this case the projection system has no way to know that Giolito completely changed his delivery and his off-season workout plan from 2018 to 2019. So it is expecting him to regress a bit.
What it is unable to predict is that, according to Giolito, this offseason will be the first one he gets to do his core strength building exercises the entire off season and into ST knowing how they will relate to the year. Gio says he thinks he should be stronger and better next year than he was in 2019!
This isn’t a problem with projection systems — but it is a good reason to think that Giolito is at least *as likely* to gain WAR as lose WAR next season.
Similarly, ZiPS is always very cautious about projecting rookies, even high-pedigree rookies. And yet, every year, we see a lot of high-pedigree rookies absolutely demolish their projections.
The floor for guys like Robert and Madrigal is close to 2 WAR each. But the ceiling for Robert is 4.5 WAR+ and the ceiling for Madrigal is 3.5+
Even if several of the Sox rookies fall to their floor or below, if just a few of them reach their ceilings (as Timmy, Moncada, and Giolito did last year), the team adds a half dozen wins.
In my Archie bunker voice. Shut up you
@sox paper-trail
Better add Tim Anderson and Alex Colome to your list of likely regression candidates, possibly significantly And while Grandal is a good addition, I don’t expect him to perform any better than what McCann gave them last year. McCann had a ton of huge hits in the first three months of the season. Silly to say, but Grandal has to pick up where McCann left off in mid-July for the Sox to take the next step.
How vary suspicious
Mr Simpson we all have nosebleeds
To quote Edwin Starr:
WAR huh what is it good for ?
Absolutely, NOTHIN’.
Before the Sox over take the Twins…they have to get by the Indians first !
it will really depend on what happens to Clevinger, Hand, Lindor, and Santana.
Y’all are going to need some offense beyond Lindor/Ramirez at some point though. Still a very formidable team, but you can’t win games if you don’t score runs. And you can’t count on going 16-1 against the Tigers again. That’s at least a 5 game regression you’ll probably experience next year.
If there is any, it will likely be made up almost entirely against the White Sox.
You want regression? How about Lindor and Ramirez regressing BACK to the players they are? If you think they had good years last year, look again.
A full year of Franmil Reyes, Oscar Mercado, and Cesar Hernandez over what we had last year in those positions?
Yes, Perez and Santana will take a step back, but the evidence suggests the Tribe has an upside “variance” that is quite significant as well.
White Sox are dominating the offseason like the Cleveland Browns did in the past NFL offseason.
Hopefully better results
I think Hader would fit in nicely.
Sox don’t have the expendable prospect capital to acquire a player like Hader.
Not yet anyway. It’s too soon to be trading what little depth they have for a reliever (cvbs).
Papertrail makes good sense and most importantly backs it up with solid stats. Thank you for keeping it respectful and real. Sox still need a few pieces but it is easy to be excited for 2020 and beyond. At the very least we won’t have a parade of AAAA players giving away games this year. Go Sox!!
Rick Hahn has been sticking to his word when committed to fixing the farm system via trades to draft picks and international signings where he would start acquiring veteran players when the White Sox are ready to compete for the division to getting in the playoffs. People have been hating on the White Sox but Hahn started off with one of the worse farm systems in baseball in 2013 where he took a chance trying to compete with a few signings to compliment that current roster. Things did not work out with injuries to players not meshing well along with the wrong manager.
As of right now, the White Sox look very good on paper where people all over the MLB from fans to reporters and experts believe the White Sox are going to be very good. That young core of Moncada, Anderson, Jiminez with Giolito, Cease and Lopez have a few years under their belts were they learned how to play in the MLB. Most importantly the White Sox keeping Abreu around while bringing in other veterans like Grandal, Encarnación, Gonzalez and Kuechel is huge. In the mean time, with Kopech coming back from Tommy John surgey is a key factor as well where he is going to most likely come out of the bullpen in 2020. Most importantly the arrival of Robert and Madigral is going to only make this offense dangerous.
The White Sox might grab one more relief pitcher before Spring Training starts but we don’t know if it is going to be via trade or a signing a free agent.
Hahn has been with the White Sox well before 2013. Hahn did not with the 2013 minor league system. He is partly responsible for its low quality
Exactly.
By this point, the team should be dominated by Hahn draft picks if he is the genius everyone says he is.
The rotation will actually have more picks made by KW, and only one likely position starter will be a Hahn pick.
KW had his flaws, but Hahn has been abysmal. The fact they are signing so many player to fill need is an indictment in player development efforts.
The fact they are signing so many players forces trolls to come up with meaningless criticisms other than “Why aren’t the Sox signing anyone to make themselves better?”
The inability of the team to draft and develop talent is hardly a meaningless criticism.
Hahn has failed miserably on the most important pipeline for sustaining a winning team.
You all don’t realize how far the team will fall in Minor League ranking by the All-Star break, once Kopech, Robert and Madrigal graduate.
Fangraphs said it will be a bottom 5 Minor League system. They’ve already fallen to 12th before graduating 2 top 5 picks.
Zero depth.
Traded away J2 $ for nothing.
Fired their advanced analytics hitting instructor after 1 year and didn’t replace him.
The White Sox do not look “very good” on paper. They look like the third best team in the central
They look better than the Twins and Indians. You guys can’t see it because it hasn’t happened yet. The Sox are the most talented team in the division, and it’s not close.
Hahahahahaha…and the professionals who determine odds in Vegas recognize it too. Oh wait….Tribe and Twins 25-1 to win it all, Sox 40-1. But surely the analytics support the Sox…oh wait, Fangraphs has the Tribe at 89 wins, Twins 88, and Sox 84…
Hmmm…guess that it truly isn’t close…just not the way you see it.
All of your Vegas odds and projections are based on what, last season? The Sox are a completely different team. The Twins (a flawed team) and Indians (being dismantled) stood pat and did nothing. That pretty much guarantees regression. And if Cleveland goes through with a Lindor or Clevinger trade, which they will do eventually, they’re a .500 team at best.
No. He’s citing current odds and FanGraphs projections.
Based on data from LAST season.
Sox have been trying hard to become contenders, Hahn has finally done it. They have a good blend of veteran and youth on this team, I would say they are a year away, but you never know. The Cubs and Astros got good a year early.
This is the 8th year of their’rebuild’. They better think their close.
The rebuild started at the 2016 winter meetings so they are going into their fourth year of the rebuild. They have been bad for a decade, unfortunately they were trying to win prior to the rebuild.
As opposed to the 116th year of the cvbs rebuild.
I am surprised at all the moves they made but I am still having a hard time believing the teams defense is enough to keep the run differential down. I will be less worried if they put together a top notch pitching staff to limit balls in play.
You’re seeing it clearly. Sox defense will significantly undermine Sox run prevention efforts. They are going to have to out-hit their gloves, and that’s a hard thing to do. Defense rarely slumps…bats go cold all the time.
lol
At this point, I’d be satisfied if the team commits to giving some younger players a shot at remaining positions, especially in the bullpen.
At some point, Hahn needs to give the young players he drafted a shot to prove themselves. Throughout the rebuild, he has bypassed doing this in favor of rentals and waiver rejects from other teams.
If we are to believe that this is a top system, give the players, especially relievers, a chance to prove their worth.
I don’t like Mazara, but Adam Engel hit lefties well enough last year. Give him a chance to platoon.
Engel – 125 wRC+ against lefties last year!!! WOOHOO (89 plate appearances)
(also Engel 60 wRC+ against lefties in 2018 in 127 plate appearances).
Career 83 wRC+ — or about 30 points lower than Leury vs LHP..
—
I’m all for giving Engel a shot to try to replicate his 2019 success while we wait for Robert to come up. And I’m even willing to let him take the weak half o the Nomar platoon for a little bit if he can keep his numbers above water.
But the second they start to regress back to his career line I think we give up on that experiment once and for all. We are in win-now mode and it’s no longer time to be running these experiments at the big league level.
The rebuild is over. The goal now is to field a big league club and contend. Guys don’t “get shots” unless they earn it.
We’re all here for some reason. Haters are going to hate…
As a Sox fan I am happy the moths have been freed from Jerry’s wallet and we will be putting a competitive team on the field next year. I am going to actually enjoy watching games against the Twins and Indians next year. If we meet expectations great, but if we exceed, look out.
Agreed. The Twins and cvbs fans hating on the Sox’s offseason moves is a good sign. Everyone should be worried about this team.
I’m still hoping they surprise us with a better RF option than Mazara, but assuming they don’t, Hudson would be great and then Cishek or Harris would be nice. The team wouldn’t have much positional depth to account for injuries, but the starters would be solid. Glad Jerry finally decided to spend some of his billions.
Mookie Betts.
He’s a paper billionaire.
His assets are the sports teams.
When Balmer overpaid for the Clippers that was a massive increase in asset wealth for all those NBA owners.
Jerry’s a CPA/attorney—he has more money than you’ll ever know. The two sports franchises were just hobbies that grew into multi-billion dollar enterprises.
Dude… he paid 9-million dollars for the Bulls in 1984. NINE — Let me repeat that — NINE.
He owns half the united center… its the largest arena in the US… bulls lead the league in total tickets sold in that that time. UC has 80 + non-sports events a year. It was only $175 mil to build
He rents the cell for $1.5 a year while keeping gross receipts for ticket sales, parking, concessions, signage and merchandise operations.
He’s not a paper billionaire… he’s been reaping in huge amounts of cash for decades with no loans to pay off… he’s a cash in hand billionaire.
1.6 billion is his net worth
Unless they published his tax returns on the google search, I’m calling bs on that low ball estimate.
Reinsdorf led a group that bought the Chicago White Sox baseball team in 1981 for $19 million. He still owns an estimated 19% stake.
$1.6B Calculated April 2019.
He and investors bought a controlling stake in the NBA’s Chicago Bulls for $9.2 million in 1985, one year after the team drafted Michael Jordan.
Six championships and 33 years later, the Bulls are worth $2.5 billion net of debt; Reinsdorf still owns an estimated 40%.
Need more pitching and better defense.
Lure Bee Bee Richard out of retirement, spare no expense!
Be a great move….. Left handed Bat
Scooter Gennett is only one year removed from being one of the best second basemen in the league as he hit .310/.357/.490 with 23 homers and 92 RBI to give himself a 125 wRC+ and 4.5 fWAR in 2018.
If the team were to sign Gennett, it would be a gamble. That being said, it might be one worth taking with Madrigal waiting in the wings just in case.
Madrigal’s presence behind him could allow the White Sox to take a chance on someone with boom-or-bust potential like Gennett.
The addition of Gennett could provide major rewards for the team if he were able to revert back to his 2018 numbers as that’s the type of bat the White Sox could find a spot for in the lineup in addition to Madrigal.