A smorgasbord of new players reached the open market Monday, the deadline for teams to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible guys. But did anyone particularly interesting join the class of available players? Let’s start on the pitching side and use several different key statistics from 2019 to determine whether any hurlers of real intrigue just became part of the current free-agent class. Admittedly, because we’re lumping starters and relievers together, this is an imperfect method. We’ll go with a minimum 20-inning limit to somewhat mitigate that…
Hardest Throwers
League average = 92.7 mph
- Blake Treinen, RHP: 96.7
- Junior Guerra, RHP: 94.7
- Josh Osich, LHP/Derek Law, RHP/Jason Adam, RHP: 94.5
- Yimi Garcia, RHP: 94.2
- Kevin Gausman, RHP: 94.0
Top Strikeout Arms
League average = 22.3%
- Yimi Garcia: 26.7 K%, 9.53 K/9
- Kevin Gausman: 25.3 K%, 10.03 K/9
- Ryan Buchter, LHP: 25.3 K%, 9.93 K/9
- Jimmy Nelson, RHP: 24.8 K%, 10.64 K/9
- Derek Law: 23.5 K%, 9.94 K/9
Fewest Walks
League average = 7.7%
- Josh Osich: 5.5 BB/9, 2.00 BB/9
- Yimi Garcia: 5.7 BB%, 2.02 BB/9
- Javy Guerra, RHP: 5.9 BB%, 2.26 BB/9
- Kevin Gausman: 7.1 BB%, 2.81 BB/9
- Alex Claudio, LHP: 9.0 BB%, 3.48 BB/9
Best Groundball Rates
League average = 42.7%
- Alex Claudio: 57.4
- Derek Law: 50.0
- Aaron Sanchez, RHP: 46.9
- Junior Guerra: 43.4
- Blake Treinen: 42.8
Least Hard Contact
League average = 38.4%
- Alex Claudio: 30.2
- Jason Adam: 33.3
- Josh Osich: 35.7
- Blake Treinen: 36.7
- Javy Guerra, RHP: 36.8
Josh Osich throws hard, doesn’t walk anyone, and doesn’t give up hard contact. The Red Sox need bullpen arms and have 6 sports open on their 40 man roster. Why not take a chance? Also how does he look so good on paper but never put a good season together? What is his game missing?
He’s 100% a lefty specialist, always has been, the MLBPA doesn’t want players to have jobs unless they’re gruesomely overpaid.
67.2 IP in 57 games. How is that a 100% lefty specialist?
2019 Splits
RHB: 157 PA, .297/.344/.559
LHB: 115 PA, .171/.200/.351
Because he 100% sucks against righties.
What really sucks for him is if he were at this stage of his career 10 – even 5 years ago he’d have easily been able to get a shot with a club next season. But now with the new rule where you have to face a minimum of 3 batters his career timing just couldnt have been worse — I understand the rules need to be added to speed up the game — but it just really sucks to see it negatively effect a player so specifically like this.
The new rule takes the strategy out of the game. The MLB is dummying down the game. SUCKS!
Looks like he can’t miss the barrel of the bat
The Red Sox non tendered him the other day
Josh Osich throws hard but has extremely poor command on his FB, he only threw it 17% of the time. He relies on a 88mph cutter and a poor slurve. He is just not good. Besides he is on the wrong side of 30.
Treinen and Gausman look like decent pickups.
Gausman is one of the most over touted pitchers I have seen in awhile. He was a top 4 overall pick and has now been released by multiple teams. Somehow his estimated arbitration salary was going to be over $10 million next season. What has he done in his career to earn that kind of paycheck or even come close to justifying a top 4 overall 1st round draft pick selection? Not disagreeing with you that he might be an interesting pick up for a team. I just think it’s weird how the MLB system works when a guy like him can get drafted so high and be valued by arbitrators to earn so much money.
Arbitration values are set first by tenure, then playing time (IP/ PA) and only then by precedent-determined ‘production’ (ie: traditional stats as opposed to more accurate ‘modern’ statistics).
For the most part, public estimations are really, really close to the contracts arbitration-eligible players actually get if they and their team agree (before the arbitration deadline) to 1-year deals or if they can’t agree and it goes to arbitration for a 1-year deal.
This is Gausman’s status prior to 2019:
– 4 years of service (second-to-last controlled season)
– Consistent, full season SP load (~180 IP each of the 3 prior seasons)
– Respectably-good-but-not-“great” SP quality; not only advanced metrics, but also traditional ones (he averaged an ERA around 4 over those 3 seasons featuring higher-than average strikeout numbers and solid W/L records despite team)
Given these, he was all-but guaranteed to fall within $9-9.5M — a really, really big bargain compared to what a player with his profile could/ would have gotten in FA.
Going into 2020, were he tendered a contract, he’d almost certainly be in line to get a raise to $10-11M just only because of his tenure and that — even if he was injured for a small chunk of the season and much less effective (by traditional stats) when healthy.
As of now, what will make him appealing to many teams (likely including the Reds) is:
1. His most controllable peripheral stats all ticked up last season (Ks went up, BBs went down) and almost all of his lack of success can be contributed to other factors (inordinate BABIP, HR/FB and LOB rates)
2. He upticked *a lot* once going almost exclusively into relief with the Reds.
Teams can see him as a buy-low SP or buy-low RP or buy-low can-be-either. There’s a pretty good chance he’ll get his choice of destinations.
problem with Gausman is he’s never been able to consistently throw 3 pitches. his fastball and split have always been enough to get by when he’s at his best, but when one of those pitches isn’t working, he’s screwed since he has never been able to learn a breaking pitch to save his life.
I actually agree. If you’re gonna take a risk on these guys, these two are the ones to do it with
I think Gausman is best suited for the pen
Really hoping my Halos are seeing this. We should pick up a few of these pitchers….maybe they start at the top with Cole or Stras and move on down the line. Either way I’d like to see a move or two soon.
“Minimum 20 inning limit” is a confusing way to put it. These are just guys who pitched at least 20 innings as far as I can tell?
I think everyone understands the point and it is a baseball website. It’s not like we’re talking about Proust here so why even worry about something like that?
I worry about Proust too…
Proust is a god, we should all worry about such things!
Garcia would look good on many teams in pitcher friendly parks. He’s going to land somewhere quickly like so many of the moonshots he’s given up.
What am I missing on Buchter? I would sign him as Preller.
1-2 million
Yeah I’m with you — he seems like a guy youd want to keep around for $1-$2M… it looks like he’s been used mostly against lefties/in situational spots in recent years but his platoon splits actually aren’t all that different against RH and LH hitters — seems like he can get them both out — which will be a valuable asset come next season with the 3-batter rule… having a lefty who can get a RH batter out sandwiched between two lefties could be quite useful for teams in need of bullpen help. As a Red Sox fan — I wouldn’t mind them signing him and giving him a shot to earn a spot in their pen next season. Though to be honest I’d be on board with them signing and of Treinen, Guerra, Garcia or Butcher. Or (not from this list) Betances. They need someone who has a high ceiling not just another group of mediocre RPs — they have plenty of those already. So I think Treinen, Garcia, Butcher or Betances could all fit as low risk/cost high reward bullpen arms.
“it looks like he’s been used mostly against lefties/in situational spots in recent years but his platoon splits actually aren’t all that different against RH and LH hitters”
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Prior to 2018, there is an argument for what you say, but his last two seasons have been pretty lopsided in favor of his platoon-side.
Career-by-season vLHH: fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=9456&p…
Career-by-season vRHH: fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=9456&p…
And their usage of him during the time (faced more LHH than RHH) with the A’s indicates that — even though his split is not yet statistically relevant — they view him as a platoon RP (which affects how they view his value). Other organizations may very well disagree (ie: he could get a ≥$1.5M/y deal on the open market), but this wasn’t an open market.
New RP rules, perhaps? He’s an RLP LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY) who will be much less frequently allowed to face only 1-2 LHB. That will almost assuredly cut into his functional value.
Osich was a starter at OSU and fell in the draft to the Giants due to injury but was always considered a 1st round talent. His SF tenure was flashes of dominant stuff as a high leverage RP and a whole lot of inconsistency of his command both in the strike zone and outside (walks). In 2019 he had as many BB as he did HR allowed, 15!
Another ex Giant on the list is Derek Law, his control has abandoned him, in parts of 4 seasons his BB rate has doubled then almost doubled again from 1.5 to almost 6 per 9ip.
that’s how you get non-tendered.
I’d give Gausman and Claudio a look. Not really integral pieces, but could help a 26.
Add innings pitched?
Jimmy Nelson I think could be a steal with a regular offseason routine and change of scenary to like San Diego, Toronto, or San Francisco.
Not sure ‘change of scenary’ is his issue, it’s his shoulder unfortunately. His career could be in jeopardy which is shame since he was looking like a solid #2 before that.
Curious where Taijuan Walker would rank if his last season with over 20 IP was used…
I agree. Out of all the pitchers, I think Walker is the most intriguing.
Astro’s sign Wheeler for reclamation project number 3
This new “pitch to 3 batter rule”… let’s say a reliever comes in gets one out to end an inning and the pitcher is due up the next inning… you cant pinch hit because he needs to pitch to two more batters?
This is a dumb rule. And not just because of this.
No he wouldn’t need to pitch to two more batters. The rule states minimum of three batters or the end of an inning. So it would be perfectly fine to only face one batter and then be pinch hit for if the inning ends.
Thats because that isn’t the rule.
The rule is: The pitcher must pitch to three batters or the end of the inning, whichever comes first.
Royals Fans would be lucky if we got one of those good pitchers with the high strike out rate or low walk rate.
“Fewest Walks
League average = 7.7%
Josh Osich: 5.5 BB/9, 2.00 BB/9”
I’m guessing you meant 5.5 BB%? And what’s league average 7.7 BB% or BB/9??