The Rockies are “willing to listen” to trade proposals regarding third baseman Nolan Arenado, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). But Colorado fans probably shouldn’t chuck their #28 threads just yet.
In their public statements, at least, the Rockies’ top decisionmakers have been steadfast in saying they intend to press for contention in 2020. That’s complicated by a tight budgetary picture, but we can’t ignore what the team has said to fans to this point.
Also important: Arenado has full no-trade rights under the massive extension he inked in February. He has emphasized a desire to play for a winning outfit, so perhaps he’d consider waiving his protection on the heels of a forgettable campaign for the Colorado organization. Regardless, it’s a potential complication to any negotiations.
Beyond that, it’s tough to fathom that the Rockies will let Arenado go lightly. This isn’t a case of buyer’s remorse. The 28-year-old put up a typically excellent season in 2019, slashing .315/.379/.583 with 41 home runs over 662 plate appearances. He’s a high-grade fielder who has scarcely missed any action over the past five seasons.
While Arenado’s contract is not a cheap one — $234MM over seven years, to be exact — teams with potential interest are already weighing enormous outlays for Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson. It has become clear in recent weeks that there’s not quite enough supply to meet the demand for those players, which helps explain why the Cubs have even engaged some rival teams regarding Kris Bryant.
It remains to be seen whether any serious talks emerge regarding Arenado. The fact that he can opt out after the 2021 season may reduce the willingness of teams to make a big offer, though two mid-prime seasons of Arenado is nothing to sneeze at. Regardless of how things develop, this news makes for an interesting market development as Rendon and Donaldson rise to the top of the leaderboard of available free agents.
As might be suspected, Heyman adds that the openness to discussing Arenado also implies that the Rox are not ruling out any other players entirely. Outfielder Charlie Blackmon is perhaps the most sensible high-end veteran target on paper. It’d be harder for the team to part with Trevor Story, Jon Gray, or German Marquez, but it’s now somewhat easier to imagine the Colorado front office exploring wider-ranging possibilities.
Get it done, AA.
Other then the opt out available to Arenado after 2021 could be an issue.
I like the idea of him in Atlanta though, as with every Rockies player though you do need to look at his home/road splits. I’m not sure because I haven’t looked. I think his broad splits are still solid, but are a drastic drop off. Like I said I haven’t looked to confirm that though.
Home: .324/.380/.615 995 OPS
Away: .265/.323/.476 799 OPS
515 games at home, 516 games away even the PA’s are insanely close. 2188 PAs home 2169 away and 1973 AB’s home to 1963 away
Hes a product of Coors field. Those numbers are very very skewed.
Very good info…checked Rendon and his averages are pretty much consistent Home and Away.
That said, he put up a .277/.346/521 road slash in ’19., which is more consistent with 3 of his last 4 seasons worth of road splits. It’s really unfair to use almost any player’s first two seasons against him.
@Cubshope5 & @CrewBrew he had a 128 wRC+ last season, which takes into account park adjustments. The majority of his away games are played in pitcher friendly parks in SF and SD as well as LA which while playing neutral does have some of the best pitching in baseball going for it. A 128 wRC+ is still All Star level, so to say he’s a product of Coors is not really true.
If he were traded, he’d quite possibly hit better away from Colorado once he adjusted. This same thing happened to LeMahieu.
That still makes him an above-average hitter who is a top-flight defender. Still a valuable piece in the short-term.
Let’s look at his OPS splits last three years and career. Why go to wRC+ when you can just eliminate his home at bats. Home/Away OPS splits. 2019: 1.057/0.866; 2018: 1.105/0.772; 2017: 1.036/0.886; Career: 0.995/0.799. These are large enough sample sizes. This is an outrageous difference and why he’s not worth his contract and is ridiculously overpaid. Coors is a very very hitting friendly ballpark. It’s not just the altitude but rather the huge field to compensate for longer distances.
Because the majority of those away games are in pitcher friendly parks, or against a Dodgers pitching staff that’s top notch….so OPS on the road doesn’t tell the whole story, UNLESS you park adjust the numbers. The EXACT same thing was said about LeMaheiu, and he went out and had a tremendous first season away from Coors, and his numbers were VERY similar.
I like the idea of Arenado in Atlanta but AA would need to make an offer based on Tue assumption that he’s only going to be under contract for 2 more seasons. That is the best possible scenario for him. If he doesn’t opt out after 2 years it will be because he is worth less valuable on the open market than he would be owed for the remainder of his contract. If he doesn’t opt out it would basically be a bad thing because it would mean he isn’t worth what he’s getting paid for. The Braves paying a player a ton of cash for 2 years when he’s worth it is a good thing but the Braves overpaying a guy a ton of cash for 7 years when he isn’t worth it would be a terrible thing for Atlanta. The Braves would inherit a lot of potential long term risk and that would need to be reflected in the trade proposal. Either by the Braves giving up slightly less prospect capital in the trade or the Rockies agreeing to eat some of the salary from the last 5 years of the contract should Arenado decline to the point that he doesn’t opt out. He’s either gonna be great and end up being a 2 year rental or be disappointing and become an albatross contract weighing down the Braves payroll for the better part of a decade. Neither of those situations looks good after the first 2 years so he should be acquired as a stellar 2 year rental at best.
Mostly his away games are in very pitcher friendly parks.
DJ LeMahieu
2016 away 353/395/747
2017 away 352/401/753
2018 away 277/422/698
2019 with Yanks 375/518/893
When good hitters leave Colorado they readjust.
Just about every Rockie is overrated with crazy splits. Blackmon Story Coco Walker etc. Hrs might not be crazy different but avg might be 260 road 334 home. They might have 37 home triples with 7 on the road. Yet they resign their players ignoring this. It is crazy.
What alternative do they have? Move the fences back? Colorado is screwed. They pay for inflated numbers and their pitchers get ruined at home. I’d move the fences WAY BACK and give up singles and play with a rover in the OF.
That park is HUGE already! I mean we’re talking that it not only allows HR now…it allows more gap power as well due to size.
The more I think about this, why not just sign Rendon for the same amount of money and keep the prospects? Either way you’re paying the money.
Personally, I like Nolan better than Rendon. I also don’t trust Rendon to go a full 7 years.
I also think Nolan plays better defense.
Also, an important aspect of prospects is, they lose their value eventually. Guys like Wilson, TT, Wright, they need to be moved with the best value if they’re not going to be used in Atlanta.
You like Nolan better than Rendon even after Nolan leaves Colorado?
Yes.
Nolan numbers outside of Colorado would most certainly go up if he were traded.
Because Arenado is a better hitter and fielder than Rendon.
By what metric?
Arenado is not a better, more complete player than Rendon. Never has, probably never will. Colorado effect through and through. Arenado needs Colorado.
Metric? Watch the game for a change. Nothing wrong with trusting what you see. Some fans say Mays was better than Mantle, some fans say Mantle was better than Mays. Watch the game and have fun again.
thank you!!!!
I think Rendon will cost much most then $234 million.
Braves25 is exactly right. Nolan is great. Any team would be happy to have him. However, he is signed to a market rate. Rockies won’t do anything more than shed the $30M+/year they owe him. Any talent coming back (unless its part of a bad contract swap) will be minimal..
Definitely on board to get him.
Braves are not adding 200 mil + in salary on one player. Just not happening.
It’s not like it’s all due in 2 years…
Especially considering they’re “in” on JD, and still “in” on MadBum, according to AA.
Trade for Nolan, allow Waters to be the headline, and some pitching. Newk to the rotation as #5 – he learns a lot from Hamels this year as well.
3B is covered for the future, rotation isn’t as great as it could/would be with a Cole/Stras/Wheeler (if you’re into that) but it’s good.
Nolan is the exact hitter Atlanta needs. RH Power bat that plays good defense.
@vtncsc
Arenado is not the same hitter away from Coors!
Everyone said that about DJ LeMahieu too, and he went out and hit to a wRC+ of 136 for the yankees who felt they had plenty in him to let Gregorius walk. The argument is old, that players leave coors, and they’re not the same….that’s not so much the case anymore. There’s actual evidence to the contrary, that there’s a reverse coors effect, because of the away fields that those players bat at in SD & SF making up a good portion of their other at bats.
So? Your argument is flawed and imo, stupid. There aren’t many teams in MLB that wouldn’t improve with Nolan.
sure……
I’d rather have Josh Donaldson back for 3 years. But the Braves already have a 3B. Hence why Donaldson was a 1 year stop gap.
Great for their fans
Frazier, Happ, Garcia, Gil, Andujar for Desmond, Gray, Arenado
Good lord would the Rockies laugh at that one…
Depends how many years are left on that horrendous Desmond contract, because that’s a player the Yanks would acquire and DFA. May need to buy out half of Happ’s contract.
Hey, it’s pretty amazing how many people bash the Yankees for driving up contract prices though, when they forget about teams like this that issue long, expensive contracts, with opt-outs, knowing the player will leave but driving up fair-market prices.
Every Yankee proposal starts with overrated Frazier and Andujar. It really is laughable to continue to read these type offers not only from random ppl but the national writers as well
Im not sure if thats enough for just arenado.
So would the yankees. Why pay arenado 30* per year for sub 800 ops and give talent.
Sub .800 OPS? You skipped math class?
The Yankees don’t really need Arenado….especially with that contract.
Yankees can’t afford any more big contracts now. Even if they could it would probably start with Deivi Garcia and another top 10 prospect if Happ were coming back too.
yankees. can’t. afford… you lost me
throw in gleyber torres
No thank you
That wouldn’t even be accepted on a video game
The Rockies are one confusing franchise as they seem to go in whichever direction the high mountains are blowing.
It’s all that weed.
Or a terrible gm
In a free agency market where there are two elite 3Bs available with another in Kris Bryant possibly being moved, the timing is truly terrible.
Go get him Atl.
Go look at his contract!
So? AA is saying he’s in on JD and MadBum, still. That’s $40m or more. Newk to the #5 hole, Nolan to 3rd, done.
He isn’t worth his contract outside of Coors Canaveral.
See yourself out please
Eat me.
Arenado’s numbers are good on the road!
He has a lifetime slash line of .265/.323/.476 away from Coors. How are those “good numbers?”
It amazes me how many people neglect this when it comes to Arenado.
Hes one of the best defensive players to ever play.
Offensively? Just okay. .265 on the road is not 30 million plus. sorry Rockies fans its a fact tho.
Put anyone in Coors field and watch their numbers get skewed.
They pay their players based off of regular stats and ignore the road stats. I laugh when I hear they are willing to listen to offers. Like Blackmon last trade deadline. Home a 349 average. Road 261. 38 triples at Coors. 9 every where else. Story 50 points less and half the Hrs 16 to 2 triples. If trout played there we would have a .400 hitter.
It amazes me how many people don’t use basic common sense when giving out numbers. Yes, Coors field gives an advantage to hitters. More players splits are higher and as they leave Coors their numbers are worse. Just because their is a higher possibility doesn’t mean it’s for certain. So it AMAZES me when people will absolutely define a player because of coors.
If you look at mostly every player the numbers are generally worse on the road. For Coors, if you listen multiple player interviews they tend to change the way they hit the ball. They will change their approach/swing to get most out of Coors.
So before we start writing off people because of Coors. I think an intelligent hitter like Nolan will do just fine anywhere else.
Not to mention defense is undervalued in WAR
They’re not terrible, either.
The Home/Road spread for other players is nothing close to most of these Rockie players. Yes, slight tilt toward Home vs Road OPS, for example. But it’s not 200 point difference like it is for many Rockie players. This is a legitimate concern. Nobody is saying that Arenado is going to be an 0.800 OPS player, but he is most likely going to be significantly below what he’s slashing in Colorado.
Not $200 million good.
Not 35m good maybe 12 good
Arenado, regardless of home vs road splits, is a 5-6 fWAR player, and on today’s market, that’s a $30MM AAV type player. Doesn’t matter if you “think” he won’t hit outside of coors, his wRC+ says he’ll be just fine, and his defense won’t get worse in any other park, which is more his calling card, as his UZR is one of the best in the league at 3rd base. Even if his offense drops off by leaving coors, he’s still 5 fWAR at worst, and Donaldson is going to get a $28MM AAV contract at minimum for less value.
He’ll be just fine hitting outside of Coors does not warrant an eight year $260mm extension. At least if you’re not Colorado.
That name………..Coors Canaveral. LMFAO.
You don’t watch much baseball outside of Dodger Stadium do you? His #’s are almost better on the road.
In what possible context could you say that?
Speaking of not watching baseball…
Arenado’s career OPS
Home: .995
Away: .799
Braves send
Dansby, Waters, Wright, Wilson, Riley and Contreras
Rockies Send
Arenado and Story
Keep Waters send Pache
Deal.
I prefer Waters to Pache myself.
Waters would likely benefit more from playing in Colorado than Pache. Just something to think about.
you probably need to add Folty or Fried, maybe both, for the Rox to consider it.
Ahaha. Not a chance
Even if the Rockies do trade both, the likelyhood of them packaging both Story and Arenado together is very slim. I cant say zero but HIGHLY unlikely.
Also, I don’t see the Braves giving that much up for just 2 guaranteed years of Arenado and 2 years of Story.
The odds that Arenado opt out are slim to none in my book, Dream big I say.
@BraveCrowe
Why not just offer Rendon 7 years 234 mil instead? Same salary and keep the prospects.
I don’t believe Rendon is the same caliber player as Arenado. Matter of preference I suppose. We cant keep all the prospects – Truly I think because of the current market Rendon will get more than that though. The Angels will overpay and he will probably be the highest paid 3rd basemen in MLB history.
Rendon will cost way more then that.
give it a rest
I’d do it. But that’ll be the end of trades for Atlanta (significant ones anyways) for a little while.
Would Wright, Riley, Inciarte, plus a mid tier arm get it done?
My god, the numbers Riley would put up at Coors…
Riley would have to actually make contact with the ball in the first place.
Not even close.
Actually that would be very close. People act as if a player their team is trading for is “free”….they forget the financial commitment. The amount of money Arenado is owed that the Braves would be on the hook for if he performs poorly combined with the fact that he could opt out if he performs well will diminish some of the return. If he was pre arbitration or was signed to a team friendly contract then you’d be correct, that proposal wouldn’t be close. But that is simply not the case.
Inciarte does not add any value to that package and the Rox don’t need him. So basically you’re saying Wright, Riley and Freddy Tarnok is enough. I rather have Donaldson at 4 years 100M, but if we miss out on him, this would be the next better option.
I totally agree, would much rather have Donaldson and keep the prospects. Just saying it wouldn’t take as much to get NA as some think. There is really no upside to his contract for the team trading for him. If he plays well you get him at market value for two years. If he doesn’t you’re stuck with his contract for 7 years.
Syndergaard, Diaz, JD Davis and Nimmo for Arenado and a salary dump?
Dream on is not just the name of a HBO series
It’s also an Aerosmith song.
Yep, off their classic first album. Best work they ever did.
A local kid from Orange County with those numbers and half his games at Coors. I would advise the Angels to stay away and sign Rendon
I’m betting Rendon returns to DC.
I agree but his war is nearly 10 points higher than rendon despite being 2 years younger. Contract is also reasonable and he would only be 35 when contract ends. Rendon has 2 years of great production and some middling years. Why not trade for mookie and have him slot back at 2nd base and keep fletcher at 3rd.
Jung and Winn for Arenado and Desmond.
Angels…. After you get FN Pitchers. good bye to that Marsh guy and cya Ward and some type of pitcher”s” gets this done, plus hes gunna be cheaper than Rendon
Texas needs to get a deal done with Rendon ASAP. This just inevitably raised the price on Bryant and we’re running out of options,
I just don’t get this team. Best 3rd baseman in the game. Solid SS and CF. You’d think they’d spend on top tier pitching.
@tiredolddude
Top tier pitchers dont want to pitch in Coors. They would have to overpay by A LOT to get any of them
yeah as a giants fan we are used to the opposite with people constantly asking why they don’t spend on hitting when no one wants to hit in SF so you get your hitters through trade or draft and just have to live with it-
Arenado is not the best 3B in the game. Very good defense but his offensive numbers are skewed by Coors. So are the stats for Blackmon and Story by the way.
Vaughn, Rutherford, Stiever, Burger and Basabe for Arenado.
This has ATL written all over it.
Austin Riley
Kyle Wright
Inciarte
Christian Pache
Langeliers
May need to negotiate a way to take out the opt out clause though for this package.
Get it done!!!
Arenado is probably good enough for that package, but it is too much plus taking on the whole salary. I would rather pay Rendon whatever he wants then trade all of that and pay Arenado.
Good point
Yes, you could sign Rendon for roughly the same money or even a little more and then trade those pieces for other assets.
Boof Bonser for Arenado
Angels plz
Billy Inpet-pler can’t close deals
At least spell it correctly dude
Would LOVE to see Trevor Story in Cincy…
Done. Colorado comes though is July this year.
Just one more owner crying poor. If you didn’t want to give him all that money, why did you?
Owners, please just admit that you want us to pay good $ to go to the park, pay a lot of $ for average food/drinks, buy team stuff and watch what you claim is a team that wants to contend but can’t afford it.
Home/Road splits are extreme. Buyer beware.
Are teams really going to be jumping to take on $234 million over 7 years, especially when, as good as Arenado is, the guy has been able to hit at Coors for 81 games? Why do teams do this? Sign/extend a guy and then a year later want to explore dumping him? Don’t sign/extend him in the first place!
To answer your first question. Yes. Watch how much Rendon gets and then Arrenado will start looking good.
I suppose your right. But I think $220 million-plus on Rendon is way too much, especially when he’ll be on the age 30 doorstep when the 2020 regular season rolls around.
The Rockies on look 6 months ahead, maybe not far, They change direction more than the Padres do and that is saying a lot.
DJ LeMahieu had one of his best years EVER ….NOT playing at coors
He would of hit over .400 last year if at Coors. He had a few years where he hit nearly 100 points better at Coors.
Would love to see him go to the Dodgers
If the Braves were ever going to have a $200+ million dollar man on their roster while give up a haul for the first time since Teixiera, Arenado is that player.
I circled him as a “if XYZ happen, he could be moved” a few weeks ago. The Rockies have little payroll room and their farm isn’t deep as it was a few years ago. Could be a good chance for them to alleviate both of those issues while he still holds MVP-like value. Contracts that big are best served moved a year too early than a year too late.
Anybody else notice everyone is available and nothing ever happens
Only about a dozen “untouchable” players in the game. Everyone else is trade negotiatable.
Every article written has the same comments of “This has ATL written ALL OVER IT” or some stupid package with Clint Frazier and Andujar because Yankee fans think their prospects are Mike Trout.
I agree, very annoying.
I haven’t seen a lot of Braves fans saying “This has ATL written ALL OVER IT”, however there are guys out there via trade that make sense for a team like Atl. They need a RH power bat to hit behind Freeman. There have been A LOT of articles about Rendon, Donaldson, Bryant, Lindor, and over the last 2 days Correa and Arenado. You add in Marte, Ozuna, and Rosario who all all RH with some pop and they fill a NEED! That need doesn’t have to be just 3B. It could be LF also and then Riley play 3B.
I’ve seen like five Frazier/Andujar offers ALL offseason and at least two of those I have seen are not from Yankee fans. Meanwhile I have seen about 20 offers with Atlanta’s Riley and no one, including me, has/have complained yet. Just typical Yankee-hate bias. Again.
Its not a Yankees hate bias. I could care less what they do. They’re in the AL and my Brewers are in the NL. I was happy about Cole staying in the AL so thanks for that.
But you cant downplay the fact that ALOT of Yankees fans think they’re farm system has the best players. Braves fans are far worse though. I only included the Yankees in my original comment because I have seen many many comments from them as well.
Lets put this to bed. Voit, Andujar, Frazier will never highlight a package for anyone like Story/Arenado/Lindor/Betts/Kluber.
Keep living in your bubble tho, Mo.
I don’t know ANY Yankees fans who think the Yankees farm system has the best prospects. NONE. And they are all perfectly aware of Andujar and Frazier’s shortcomings. Pretty much all trade offers on this site have a homer bias.
If you acknowledge Arenado’s home field bias and are open to the idea that CO is looking to dump salary, then yeah Andujar and Frazier could be heading up a deal for Arenado, depending on what other players/prospects and $ are involved.
Yours is the bubble, BrewCrew.
okay Mo…okay.
Wahhhh, whining about hardcore fans talking and dreaming about trade proposals on a trade rumor site, guess you live in the right state to find some cheese with that wine. Go vikes!
we know its not the Angels inquiring, Billy Inept-pler couldn’t close a door let alone a deal.
Omg u would love my Braves to go get him. Cash is so expensive on his deal makes you wonder if he’d be a bit cheaper than someone like KB. But for real… throw 1 of Waters or Pache at them, then throw whatever pitching prospects they want, Riley, and Ender lol. Maybe try to hold on to Ian Anderson if possible. But gosh, how good would Riley be with the Rockies at that stadium once he’s figures it out. Could be like 70 bombs a year lol
Dodgers need to take advantage of this opportunity ASAP.
Could the Twins swing this trade without giving up Lewis? Would Kiriloff/Larnach+ get it done?
IMO, I think STL will make a call to COL.
Rockies get:
Folty
Wright
Riley
Wilson
Braves get:
Arenado
I don’t think you’re getting Nolan w/ out Pache or Waters. I’d keep Folty, sub in Waters.
Probably will have to eat some salary unless there is another stupid team willing to pay for the inflated home stats. Won’t get much for him unless they eat at least 10 million a year.
Rangers trade Rougned Odor Josh Jung and Kolby Allard for Nolan Arenado
Um, no.
Ahhh.. cue the Dodgers! Once rendon heads to Texas they’ll be looking for someone to fill turners spot. With turners declining play, and the interdivisional matchup, I could see the dodgers at least checking in and doing their do diligence. They have the $$$
The doggers are not going to want to give their prospects up to another team in the NL West.
I know this wouldn’t happen but it’s fun to “dream big” Cardinals send Carlos Martinez,Dakota Hudson,one of Elehuris Montero or Nolan Gorman,maybe Andrew Kinzner to the Rockies for Arenado and Jon Gray. Rockies get 2 starting pitchers if Martinez can prove he is still a starter,a future everyday 3rd baseman and at worse a backup catcher. Cardinals get another big bat they have been looking for and a starting pitcher. Have to give up something in order to get something. I know ALOT of teams would beat that offer but it’s only a “dream big” scenario.
Ca$hman is about to stirke again.
i cant even fathom what the return could be. clearly a big contract, but this guy would win MVPs every year if he played anywhere but Colorado.
Any team would benefit from Arenado’s defensive skills but his offensive numbers away from Colorado are only good, not elite. Looking at it that way his contract is somewhat under water at least for any team not playing their home games in Denver. The Rockies will have to pay down some of that contract if they hope to get back much in return other than payroll relief.
Yankees will glady take him.
Same was said about DJ LeMahieu.
DJ went on to have his best year ever!
imo the Coors effect isnt as crazy as its made out to be. id argue its more of an imagined terror for pitchers then a real effect. sure scientifically the ball should travel farther in Colorado, but that doesnt mean too much when the ball isnt leaving the park (which still isnt happening in beyond 90% of at bats for even the best hitters)
It isn’t just homers that make Colorado a hitter’s paradise, it’s the extra-roomy outfield. The terror for pitchers there isn’t just in their heads, though I can see how it gets into them.
Maybe they will but on LeMahieu we’re talking one year away from Colorado and at Colorado his home/road spilts were just as pronounced as Arenado’s. Not that Yankee Stadium is a pitcher’s park either.
That’s what every Rockies player’s agent will be saying for the next ten years. DJ is good hitter. But nobody paid him for his Coors stats did they. Stunned Rockies didn’t give him a big contract.
Yankee Stadium is also known to be a very hitting friendly park. I’m sure it was just a coincidence that LeMahieu’s home OPS was much higher than his away OPS. 0.977 home OPS, 0.818 away OPS. It’s not Coors Field distorted but close. It’s one season though. My guess is that spread will narrow next season but still home bias given Yankee Stadium.
Look at other players. Home vs Away splits are TYPICALLY pretty significant. I’ve put 3 perfect examples below for you, which is why you have to start looking at OPS+ or wRC+ because that takes into account the stadiums they play in, and the effects of the stadium. Your home vs road OPS numbers don’t tell the story you think it does.
Another factor: just as some hitters collapse in Yankee Stadium’s pressure, others thrive on the energy. I think DJ was the latter.
“Home vs Away splits are TYPICALLY pretty significant.” That is actually not true. You don’t see 150-200 type OPS point spreads with other players. It’s a common thing in Colorado. Yes, we talked about wRC+ which puts Arenado as the 14th best 3B last year.
So much for the extension. Is the Rockies GM now on the hot seat?
Cardinals give you Gorman #2 and a top 100 prospect third baseman, a catcher Herrera #6, Choose from one of the many outfielders we have, and a Pitcher from our top 30…that should get it done…you have to think that he will definitely opt out also
Stop it already. Arenado isn’t going anywhere.
More than likely no, but Colorado is smart to listen when guys are getting stupid AAV contracts like Cole just got, and like what’s rumored to be offered to Rendon & Donaldson.
exactly…he will easily opt out of his contract…he won;t want to stay in Colorado and after he sees what rendon is going to get….sorry cubsfanforever but stop it already…its a no Brainer for Colorado to trade him
Cardinals!!
he is a Market Value contract. he shouldnt fetch multiple top prospects
GMs give up multiple top prospects for excess value, not market value.
For all the, for lack of a better word, idiots saying that Arenado is nothing but a product of Coors Field I have one question. Why isn’t every Rockie putting up his numbers? Every Rockies plays in Coors, but none of them consistently hit 40+ homers. Or drive in 125+ runs every year. Or win a Gold Glove every year of their career.
And I have talked about the documented lack of validity for H/R splits for Rockies hitters way too much on here. So if that is your argument against him, just remain quiet. I won’t my time arguing something so easily shut down.
@ hlflew You’re joking right? We have 24 years of data that completely refutes your argument. A banjo hitter is still not going to hit 40 HRs but he may hit 10-15 at Coors Field, while less than 5 elsewhere. It’s not just Arenado. Look at Blackmon. Story. All the past Rockie players. It’s a HUGE discrepancy. Blackmon’s career home OPS is 0.997 and only 0.743 in away games. That’s below average for an OF. Story’s home career OPS is 0.998 and away is 0.756. Numbers don’t lie. Go look up Vinny Castilla. Andres Galarraga and their numbers when they played in Colorado. Home vs away.
You do know that Arenado had 21 HR’s at Coors, and 20 HR’s away from Coors last season, right? And most players have large home vs away splits. Look at Donaldson’s home vs away splits from last year, and his OPS was SIGNIFICANTLY less, but you don’t hear a bunch of talk about how he’s nothing away from Suntrust. Or Mizuna or Machado with a .779 OPS away from either camden or petco. Machado got a $30MM per year contract with WORSE Away splits, but no one talked about how it was a camden effect.
It’s not merely HRs you dolt. It’s the huge outfield difference. Arenado’s 2019 home OPS was 1.057 at home versus 0.866 away. That is a big difference. Maybe it was just sample size you may argue. Try 0.995 vs 0.799 on a career basis. How do you explain these numbers? All random?
businessinsider.com/chart-major-league-baseball-ba…
Hard to take you seriously when you’re trying to argue Camden Yards and Coors Field. Yes, some fields are very hitter friendly but none more than Coors Field. It’s not close. Take the 24 years of Coors and compare it to any field. It’s not close. You can continue to argue but the numbers do not support your arguments. Random anecdotes are random anecdotes. Numbers with large sample sizes are exactly that. Valid support.
I’m not a dolt, but you keeping talking about away OPS, without using an OPS+ or taking into account the other ballparks he’s hitting in. It works just as much the other direction in his away games, which are mostly played in SF and SD which are pitchers parks, as it does for Coors, and why a wRC+ is a WAY better statistic. then you talk about how HR’s for band box hitters is higher….but that argument doesn’t hold water when his HR’s away are just as good. Your argument is that if he leaves Coors, he’s all of the sudden going to be a sub .800 OPS hitter, and that’s just not the reality. His wRC+ says otherwise, and that takes into account hitting most of his at bats at Coors. So please, stop trying to insult me, and look at the numbers that take into park effect.
And that’s what a number like wRC+ takes into account. It’s why you can use it to ACTUALLY judge the effectiveness of a hitter over just OPS away, which doesn’t take parks into account. wRC+ lets you see what a hitter’s effectiveness is regardless of where he may be taking those at bats, and a career 128 wRC+ says Arenado is an All Star regardless if he was in Coors or not. You’re saying he’s not an all star if he wasn’t in coors. You have continually said he’s a sub .800 OPS hitter away from coors, as if that’s exactly what he would be from year to year, which isn’t at all realistic. Having large home and away splits are NOT abnormal for most hitters.
Donaldson gets a pass because SunTrust/Turner is a pretty neutral park. On any given year you can get a discrepancy it’s more important to take a longer sample size. And you’re arguing Petco, a pitcher friendly field? Bringing up random one year discrepancies does not make your case. Camden is hitting friendly but c’mon not close to Coors. There is no comp to Coors. I know you Rockie fans want to defend your boys but there is no defense.
No, you didn’t read my point. I posted JUST away OPS for Macahado CAREER including last year, who basically did exactly his career numbers while changing stadiums to a pitcher friendly park. His AWAY ONLY OPS is .779 total, but you don’t hear about how that’s effected by Camden like you do Nolan. That’s my whole point. Your argument isn’t valid for saying Nolan is JUST a Coors player, unless you say that as well about Donaldson & Machado and the fields they played at. Donaldsons AWAY OPS last year was .739, but he’s going to get a $28MM AAV contract for 4 years. Nolan has a $33MM AAV contract for the next few years, but is way younger, and has a higher annual fWAR value, and has a wRC+ that’s just as good, but because Nolan plays in coors, you’re discounting his value.
And I’m not a rockies fan, so try again.
Sure. Let’s play your wRC+ game. He had a 128 wRC+ by the way according to Fangraphs. Minimum 400 at bats. Arenado was #43 in the league last year. #14 among third basemen. Is that elite? No. Muncy had a higher wRC+. Off year for Arenado? Well his career wRC+ is 120 according to fangraphs. On the scale that puts him between above average (115) to great (140), and well below excellent (160). Nobody is saying Arenado is terrible. Simply that his stats are inflated and should not be played elite money. Please stop.
library.fangraphs.com/offense/wrc/
fangraphs.com/players/nolan-arenado/9777/stats?pos…
Both you guys make some good points but also cherry pick some stats. You can’t use Donaldson 1 season vs Nolans last season with juiced ballls and totally ignore his entire career at coors. He still hits tons of hr’s on the road but not quite as many usually. Don’t want to hear how bad SF park is for hitters. I am sure bonds Posey etc did ok there.
Majority of players have similar splits home away. Rockies usually have horrible differences. His aren’t nearly as bad as most but they can’t be ignored. With him it’s more the huge outfield than the thin air. He would hit 30 40 hrs playing for any team. Would just bat .260 .270 instead of .300 unless it was Boston another stat inflating park.
No, you’re a dolt garlick for entertaining the argument. Colorado typically falls last or close to it in road hitting.
Arenado’s OPS among starting 3B on the road was 13th in 2019 with players over 200 plate appearances. Using that:
2018: 14th (15th if you include Machado)
2017: 8th
2016: 11th
Home rankings between 2016-2019:
2019: 2nd
2018: 1st
2017: 1st
2016: 1st
Imagine that….
Here is another data point from a great analysis on Larry Walker and the HOF. I think he is HOF if that matters. The relevant points if you scroll down is that the all-time OPS by Rockie players in the history of Coors Field (it’s actually 25 years not 24 like I said before) is 0.876, which is by far the highest compared to any other team in their home field during that time, as you would expect. The Rockies road OPS in that same time period is 0.690, which is the worst in the majors. That’s a 186 point spread. I randomly sampled about 20 players that played all their games for the same team for a long time (greater than 10 years) and calculated an average home/away OPS spread of only 15 points or a median of 28 points. Yes, in general home OPS were higher (about 2/3 higher; about 1/3 lower), but only by a small amount.
Author also plots out historical highest OPS at home vs. overall OPS spreads (going back over 100 years minimum of 2,500 at bats) and 11 of the 50 all-time highest played significant time with Colorado. I suspect the list would be much larger if there were more players that played a significant portion of their career in Colorado. Remember also that Colorado has only been around since 1993. The list of 11 includes Carlos Gonzalez, Larry Walker, Dante Bichette, Todd Helton, Matt Holiday, Troy Tulowitzki, Vinny Castilla, Andres Galarraga, Michael Cuddyer, Eric Young, Neifi Perez. Does not include current players or else you’d also see Arenado, Story, Blackmon, among others.
cooperstowncred.com/larry-walkers-hall-of-fame-cas…
Cuddyer only played 3 years in Colorado, and his home/road splits while playing for the Rockies were not that drastic unless you count 2014 which he only had 110 AB on the road which is a small sample size.
2013 – .356 AVG HOME vs .311 Away
2014 – .400 AVG HOME in 80 AB vs .282 AVG Away in 110 AB
2015 – .262 AVG HOME vs .255 AVG Away (Almost the Same)
Galarraga didn’t lose a thing when he came to the Braves, other than a year to overcome cancer. He was a stud after Colorado.
Galarraga was allegedly on the 2003 PED list that was leaked. Would not be shocked if there was something aiding the Atlanta numbers. His best years were in Colorado, without question.
Galarraga was jacked even when he was playing for the Rockies. If he did use PED’s, I doubt he started using them while playing for Atlanta.
Nobody suggest anything of that nature.
The thin air helps the balls take better hops. That’s why he wins the gold glove every year.
You’re afraid to actually look at facts. There is no reason to destroy you and your ignorance. mlbdodgerfan2015 just scratched the surface, and we can bring up another 20 names with zero intention of hurting your feelings.
Rob Refsnyder for Nolan Arenado straight up. I kid, I kid, I was just trying to be funny .
The White Sox and cubs should be all in on Blackmon and Arenado, respectively. They won’t do it because they “never have money” would good/great players become available. They rather spend waste it on a couple of dogs to stink up the joint and clog the roster.
*when good/great players become available.
Blockbuster of the off-season:
N. Arenado
K. Freeland
B. Shaw
For
O. Herrera
N. Williams
C. Irvin
A. Medina
A. Bohm
Nice start but they would want Phils to add Kingery or Hoskins , which I would do EXCEPT for the possible opt-out with Arenado .
That would be the worst trade in Rockies history
Phillies and Red Sox fans always trying to trade their garbage players for generational talent. lol
Stanton, Happ,Andujar and Garcia for Arenado and Desmond, plus $18 million… Done!
$18MM from CO? How many years are left on Desmond’s contract, at what AAV?
another moron trade proposal. would you look at that. Its like clockwork. more evidence for ya, Mo.
They are everywhere, being proposed by every fanbase. There’s a bad phillies proposal just above. It’s a feature of the site. Some, like you, try to cast it as the problem of a particular fanbase. It’s just not true. Armchair GM’ing is not easy! I don’t know if I’ve seen a good proposal in MONTHS. And I’m guessing you’ve blown more than a few yourself. No one can accuse you of being a baseball einstein.
Here is the Cardinals opportunity. They have long coveted this guy and have the depth of pitching and outfield prospects to make it happen
Cardinals get: Nolan Arenado and Jon Gray
Rockies get: Nolan Gorman, Carlos Martinez, Matt Carpenter, Harrison Bader, Daniel Ponce De Leon
I would take that deal if they offered. But I am guessing instead of Ponce they would want Hudson or instead of Bader might want Carlson.
So basically you have the Cards giving up one top prospect and three integral parts of their MLB roster in exchange for an unproven starter and Arenado? Why would the Redbirds open up two roles to fill one?
Alright, so, you all know which team I’m na fan of. I know the Yankees are VERY unlikely to have the prospects to get him, but realistically, if Cashman offered Garcia, Frazier and Andujar, agreed to take on all of Nolan’s salary AND took Desmond’s contract off their hands, does Colorado hang up?
Also, does anyone else like him in Toronto? I’ve always felt like he’d be a good fit for them and Vlad Jr is going to have to be a full-time DH within a couple years of he doesn’t get his weight down. The climate controlled dome would probably help his numbers stay around the same as they are at Coors.
Get bent.
Anti-social problem child.
*41 homers, not 31. Not trying to be snarky, just thought that seemed low. He had 31 doubles… Saw Arenados brother playing on the Richmond Flying Squirrels this summer. Tough sibling shadow come the holidays I’d imagine — snark made its way in, anyway.
Socal guy and his local team is kicking the tires on Rendon? Arenado, with full NTC, is clearly only going to the Dodgers.
Many people on this site were saying DJ would flop this year with the Yankees after moving away from Coors, and look what happened ? Not every Rockies hitter is a flop away from Coors.
It’s called a small sample size. Let’s see another couple of seasons. Also he went to a very hitting friendly ballpark, especially with a short RF porch. I saw him hit a couple of those to RF this year. Those are fly outs in quite a few parks. And not all Colorado players are going to flop elsewhere. We shall see.
Product of Coors field? That’s what people said about DJ LeMahieu and everyone can see what he’s doing with the Yankees.
The Rockies have never traded their best bats while their value is highest.
I question the extension to Arenado just to trade him a season later. That being said, COL should be calling NYY, STL and maybe even PHI. Yanks and Philly have been spending big lately and STL has the ability to open the purse strings wide when they need too.
There is only 1 team that should get Nolan Arenado in 2020 and that is the Chicago Cubs because they need him the most!
LA Dodgers
They don’t need him they have Justin Turner