Dec. 6: The Rangers have announced the deal. Their 40-man roster is up to 39 players.
Dec. 5: The official price tag is $28MM in guaranteed money over three years, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links) with $3MM more available to Gibson in incentives. The front-loaded deal will pay Gibson $11MM in 2020, $10MM in 2021, and $7MM in 2022.
Nov. 27: The Rangers are poised to make their first big addition of the winter, as they’ve reportedly agreed to a three-year, $30MM pact with free-agent right-hander Kyle Gibson. The agreement is pending completion of a physical. Gibson is a client of Rowley Sports Management.
Assuming the physical checks out, the agreement represents an important early marker on the market for starters. There’s a bevy of hurlers and quite a few teams working on matches at the outset of free agency. Gibson ranked 19th on MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents.
The reported three-year, $30MM term hews closely to the model that the Texas organization has adopted with Mike Minor and Lance Lynn in recent offseasons: identify an upside starter and pay a slight premium in terms of years in order to lure him into the fold. The total outlay doesn’t represent a large-scale risk for a team with the Rangers’ payroll track record — particularly with a new stadium in the offing in 2020. That said, Gibson isn’t exactly a sure bet to break out in the same manner as Minor and Lynn have in Arlington.
At 32 years of age, Gibson is older than many first-time free-agent pitchers — and not because he signed a contract extension that delayed his path to the open market. Injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery, delayed the former Mizzou star and first-round pick’s path to the big leagues. He didn’t dbut until he was on the cusp of his 26th birthday and didn’t pitch a full season in the Majors until he was indeed 26.
Gibson showed real promise with a strong full season of work in 2015 before turning in matching 5.07 ERAs in both 2016 and 2017. He turned the corner in 2018, when he ran up a 3.62 ERA over 196 2/3 innings. His 2019 results are disappointing by comparison. After a late lull, he finished with a 4.84 ERA in 160 frames. Those results, it should be noted, can in some ways be attributed to recent health troubles — though none involving his arm. Rather, Gibson lost roughly 25 pounds last winter due to a bout of e-coli, and he was never fully able to put the weight back on and build up to full strength. Late in the season, he missed time due to further gastrointestinal issues when he diagnosed with ulcerative colitis.
All that said, it’s worth drilling down beneath the surface-level numbers with Gibson even more so than with most free agents. The lanky 6’6″ righty struck out exactly one hitter for every inning he pitched and posted a career-high 13.1% swinging-strike rate in 2019, and he carried a characteristically strong 51.4% ground-ball rate.
Gibson has also taken a major step forward with his slider in recent seasons; what was already an above-average pitch for much of his career generated a career-best 26.7 percent swinging-strike rate over the past two years. Gibson’s changeup, too, has been an outstanding offering at times and has generated a near-60 percent grounder rate dating back to Opening Day 2018. Combined with a fastball that has averaged 93.6 mph over the past two seasons, Gibson is armed with a quality three-pitch mix — even if his four-seamer isn’ta swing-and-miss offering at all.
The big question from a performance standpoint is the long ball. Gibson has always been a bit prone to coughing up dingers when hitters manage to put the ball in the air. Last year, he allowed home runs on 20.4 percent of the balls put in the air against him and served up an average of 1.29 big flies per nine innings pitched. He’s also never had particularly strong command of the strike zone, evidenced by a career 3.2 BB/9 mark (identical to his season-long total in 2019).
At a minimum, it seems reasonable to hope that Gibson will settle in as a steady and durable back-of-the-rotation arm — just the sort of piece the Rangers so badly need. That outcome would make this investment something of an overpay, but it’s also easy to see how better health could bring about a Minor/Lynn-esque breakout for Gibson and make his contract look like a similarly savvy bargain pickup for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and his staff.
Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that the two sides were closing in on a deal (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that a deal was in place (via Twitter). Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reported the contract terms (via Twitter).
kleppy12
I kind of wish the Twins could have brought him back on a one year deal just because I think he has upside but I hope he does well no matter what he’s a good dude in real life.
twinsfan368
Agreed
twinky
Best of luck to Kyle Gibson.
Vin Scully
Why is he a good dude? I don’t know anything about him. Do you have details?
andrewgauldin
I asked the same question about a player on a different post, and got scolded. You don’t know what kind of people you’re going to trigger by asking that.
spinach
Yea I saw that chain of comments..crazy.
snotrocket
You angered the slacktivists.
kleppy12
I wont scold anyone lol. He’s very generous with his time and the biggest reason he struggled this year was because he contracted E. Coli from going on a mission trip to an impoverished 3rd world country to build schools or hospitals. He ran a Twins fantasy football league that private people could pay to join and all the proceed went to charity. Things like that.
astick
What player was it? I got stoned for asking what their solution was for the contraction of minor league teams and paying them better. I wasn’t refuting someone’s statement, I simply asked what do they recommend. Holy.
andrewgauldin
Doolittle
andrewgauldin
Sounds like a good dude. Thanks for not being triggered.
pustule bosey
what? who thinks doolittle isn’t a good dude, he is like one of the best dudes in baseball
christianponder
I’ve actually heard the complete opposite from sources who know the coaching staff, they have said he’s pretty much a huge jerk.
Steve Johnson
Sure, who wouldn’t want to hold a decent player as a free agent for one additional year? That was never going to happen unless the Twins would have offered ridiculous money for it or by making a QA for 17 million plus. 32 year old #3 starters typically get multi year deals..
Its hard to describe a 32 year old has having “upside” rather than be concerned about regression of skills and loss of velocity. Gibson’s strength is his strikeout rate, but for a guy who gets whiffs he’s pretty darned hittable. His control isn’t that great either. What happens if his fastball declines? .
I’m personally more comfortable with him leaving rather than committing a multi year double digit deal to a guy who could easily slide into #4 status.
TwinsHomer
Assuming a two year deal is in place if he’s signing this early…. was definitely still holding out hope of signing him to the cheap 1 year 6-8 mill deal for the 5th starter role. Won’t surprise me at all if he throws 160+ innings of 4 or lower ERA ball.
TwinsHomer
3 and 30…. you know what? You can have him. That’s just not a good deal.
tcfreedom3
Not a huge fan of it either, but people said the same thing about Lynn last year. Gibson’s K #s continue to rise. Rangers could take him to another level like they did with Minor and Lynn.
Francys01
Why? Gibson should return with the Twins. I was hoping that the Rangers sign Julio Teheran or Tanner Roark.
iang2424
Honestly think they still may go after Julio. To me he was more of someone they wanted in an innings eater who has had a fair amount of success in his career. Rangers have too many lefty pitchers that are young and inexperienced (Palumbo, Burke, and Allard) to rely on heavily throughout the season. I think Allard has the best case to stay in the rotation if they were to sign Gibson and another guy like Teheran.
Francys01
True.
DarkSide830
their funeral
Francys01
Gibson is very inconsistent when he pitches. This is probably a bad signing by Daniels. I want to know more about the contract, how many years he will get.
tcfreedom3
People said the same thing about Lynn last year. Also, I would say Gibson is better than Roark. Teheran is probably better than Gibson but his velo has dropped significantly (to the high 80s) and that’s cause for concern.
DarkSide830
Gibson has allowed more than a run per two innings the past years. unlike Lynn, Gibson was never good. one good year (2018) does not a good pitcher make.
tcfreedom3
His strikeout numbers continue to rise. I’m not a huge fan of the deal or anything, but the Rangers have done a fantastic job taking Minor and Lynn to new levels. They can presumably do the same with Gibson. His FIP from 2019 suggests he wasn’t all that far off from where he was in 2018. And supposedly dealt with stomach issues with ulcerative colitis in 19.
jorge78
I hope they help him succeed like with Minor and Lynn…..
sandman12
I’m rather stunned that there is any market for a pitcher with a career 1.41 WHIP and who is coming off a 1.44 WHIP season.
martras
Take a look at the number of qualified starters and the average ERA/FIP/xFIP last year and you’ll understand why. 3yrs and $30M is minimal risk. $10M/yr is #4-#5 starter territory.
nailz#4life
Ummm……, this is NOT the M’s deal we are all waiting patiently here to see
Phiilies2020
Hoping it’s not a high annual salary because this signing is going to kinda set up the market for starting pitching. My favorite team needs starting pitching, so I’m hoping they wont have to egregiously over spend.
dudeman40
Like the deal!! Sign him up
Pass on Tehran.
Another pitcher the Rangers have been chasing for years – like Matt Moore and Shelby Miller were!
Coal tender
We will see if the Rangers are getting the 2018 or 2019 version of Gibson.
bigsteve
His FIP was nearly identical in 2018 and 2019.
jabl
Too bad; was hoping the Royals would sign him.
californiaangels
dang I really like him for the Angel’s.
Eatdust666
Other than 2015 and 2018, which were not terrible, but not great, he’s been total trash.
Fire Jon Daniels
I am more interested to see if the long time overpay that was necessary to get pitchers to come play in the heat is gone now that the Rangers have a new ballpark
DarkSide830
and as expected…massive overpay.
twinsfan368
Huge overpay but it worked out for Lynn
andrewgauldin
I think Lynn’s 2018 season and Gibson’s 2019 season are pretty similar. And we thought Lynn’s contract was an overpay.
Gibson has made at least 29 starts since 2014?2015? So at the very least you’re getting durability.
jdgoat
I thought Gibson would’ve been a good fit in Toronto but for three years? No thank you.
Matt Tobin
Insanely good deal for the Rangers.
Gibson has a decent fastball and fantastic slider/changeup/curve based on SwgStk%.
Upside of a #2 at the price of a average starter.
andrewgauldin
And extremely durable. I like the deal for parties
kleppy12
I’m a Twins fan and would have loved to have him back but I would never classify this as an insanely good deal. Gibson doesn’t throw strikes, he had the lowest strike percentage in baseball last season I believe and his upside is not a number 2, he’s a 4 or a 5 with upside as a 3.
bigsombrero
As a lifelong Twins fan, I concur. I’ve watched him pitch his entire career. He’s had some flashes of “very good” but has been more consistently “below average”. His upside isn’t as high as the upsides of Lynn or Minor. That said, Texas would probably be happy with 180 innings and a 4.80 ERA, which to me is probably a best-case scenario for Gibby over the next 3 years.
mlbfan
It’s a fair deal for both sides. I expect his value to exceed his contract. I agree that he has the upside of a #2, whether he gets there remains to be seen. They have veterans Lynn and Minor that may help him handle pitching inconsistencies.
dcrising
Gotta think 3 years – $30M is an absolute steal for Gibson. He’s lucky to pitch to a sub-4.50 ERA and isn’t much of a strikeout guy. I was expecting 1 year – $6-8M or 2 year – $10-12M.
krillin89
Agree
its_happening
Turning 33 and struggled in the AL Central. Rewarded $30-mil because he knows to stay healthy. We’ll see how this shakes out in Texas. He could have his best seasons ahead of him. Doubtful. This could be ugly real quick.
PurpleAdjective
Rangers really don’t have anything to lose at this point, their rotation outside Minor, Lynn & MAYBE, and that’s a big maybe, Sampson, is pretty horrendous.
Daniels just doesn’t seem to know what he’s doing anymore.
Dalton1017
he wont be 33 till end of 2020 season birthday is October fool
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Whose kyle Gibson?
DarkSide830
he’s a close pal of Joe’s.
jorge78
WOW! Hope it works…..
smrtbusnisman04a
Seems like a bit of an overpay. I would’ve thought 6-7/ year but that happens when you follow the Pirates and Rays for years
agentx
MLBTR report yesterday suggested Dipoto may have another SP signing to announce today.
Could SEA have been down the road with Gibson before getting outbid, or is there a chance the Mariners may sign Teheran or an even bigger name between now and Thanksgiving dinner?
Steve Adams
Seattle Times reported that the Mariners’ next deal will be similar in terms to the one they got with Graveman; doubt they were ever far down the road with Gibson.
DarkSide830
so…Smyly
citizen
Good for Gibson getting a multiyear deal but rangers park is HR friendly. Wonder why gibson didnt sign with NL team to lower the ERA.
Daniel Youngblood
The Rangers will play in a new park in 2020. We don’t know yet how that one will play, but it’s very unlikely to be the bandbox TBIA was.
angt222
Thought the Brew Crew would have signed him..
darwin 22
Wow! What a great early X-Mas present for all Twins fans!! My only disappointment is that he didn’t sign with an AL Central team (KC or DET) as it would’ve been awesome to be able to pount Gibson at least 3-4x over 19 intra division games. For all of those wishing Falvey would’ve brought him back, I have to ask..WHY??? Although I’m sure a “nice guy” and nice to dogs/senior citizens along with being a good teammate, the plain and simple truth is that he can’t be counted on in ANY capacity!! When you factor in his incessant NIBBLING..hence my nickname of “Meow Mix,” that’s always been part of his makeup, he is NOT the kind of starting pitcher this team should want now or anytime into the future. Time to turn the page. Cron should be the next to be shown the door.
themaven
Gibson was a nibbler and he’s 32 so I can see why the Twins passed on 3 years 30 million,but you could do worse and for a lot more money, so we’ll have to see how the rest of the off season pans out.
Finlander
He showed some pitch quality improvements that he couldn’t fully exploit last year due to the weight loss and physical weakness. He does give you innings and a K per inning, and around 93-94 with 2 good secondaries. If Texas staff finds he is coachable, numbers will be closer to 2018 than 2017. He’s a decent 4, 3 upside. As for contract – maybe not a financial bargain as much as a defensive move to keep him from being picked up by a division competitor such as Angels or Seattle, to force those teams onto either riskier or much more expensive options.
tsc32
3/28 is actually pretty dang nice
NLD_14
And it’s front heavy!
DarkSide830
good its front-loaded. it wolnt look as bad now when they cut him within two years.
Coal tender
They have Gibson in the fold now they need to go after Rick Porcello who come’s off a not so hot 2019, but will bounce back for 2020. Both Gibson and Porcello together will resemble the Lynn and Minor plus production of 2019.
2weeks
I got a feeling this is going to be the rangers biggest move this off season