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The 2019 season resulted in another NL West title but more playoff disappointment for the powerhouse Dodgers. Now, newly extended president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is once again looking for ways to get the Dodgers their first World Series championship since 1988.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Clayton Kershaw, LHP: $46.67MM through 2021
- A.J. Pollock, OF: $42MM through 2022 (including $5MM buyout for 2023)
- Kenley Jansen, RHP: $38MM through 2021
- Joe Kelly, RHP: $21MM through 2021 (including $4MM buyout for 2022)
- Justin Turner, 3B: $19MM through 2020
- Kenta Maeda, RHP: $12MM through 2023
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Pedro Baez (5.059) – $3.3MM
- Enrique Hernandez (5.054) – $5.5MM
- Joc Pederson (5.028) – $8.5MM
- Chris Taylor (4.037) – $5.0MM
- Corey Seager (4.032) – $7.1MM
- Ross Stripling (3.115) – $2.3MM
- Max Muncy (3.027) – $4.6MM
- Cody Bellinger (2.160) – $11.6MM
- Julio Urias (2.117) – $1.7MM
Free Agents
- Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill, Russell Martin, Jedd Gyorko, Yimi Garcia, David Freese (retired)
The Dodgers have been eminently successful since Friedman came over from Tampa Bay to take the reins after the 2014 season. However, despite their financial might, they haven’t been aggressive in handing out large contracts during the Friedman reign. In fact, the Friedman-led Dodgers haven’t issued a single $100MM-plus contract. That could change this offseason, though, as the Dodgers work to finally push themselves over the top in 2020. So far this offseason, they’ve been connected to the three best free agents available – right-hander Gerrit Cole, third baseman Anthony Rendon and righty Stephen Strasburg (the latter two helped bounce the Dodgers from the playoffs this year as members of the Nationals). It’s entirely possible all three will require contracts worth at least $200MM and $30MM or more per year, and giving out that type of deal would obviously represent a radical change of course for the Dodgers.
On paper, the team certainly has the money for a Cole-Rendon-Strasburg splash, but if the Dodgers are still leery of the luxury tax, any of those signings would be difficult to swing. The Dodgers’ luxury-tax projection for 2020 is currently at just south of $180MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs. The first level of the tax next season will fall between $208MM and $228MM. If the Dodgers spend anywhere in that vicinity, the league would hit them with a 20 percent overage tax. Should that deter the Dodgers from making major improvements this winter? Frankly, no, but as we’ve seen time and again, team owners prefer to stay under the tax.
Tax aside, Friedman hasn’t been keen on passing out very long contracts, which could be problematic in regards to a potential LA pursuit of the game’s elite free agents. Cole and Rendon should each get at least seven-year guarantees, while Strasburg may end up at six. Friedman could offer any of those players a high-AAV deal for fewer years, as he reportedly did last offseason with Bryce Harper, but who’s to say any would leave a larger overall guarantee on the table from another club?
Considering the way they typically operate, some skepticism is warranted in regards to whether the Dodgers will actually reel in any of the three superstar free agents on the board. But let’s say it happens. If it’s Cole or Strasburg, he’ll further beef up an already strong rotation that boasts Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw as locks. Meanwhile, Friedman has suggested Julio Urias, Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling have legit chances to comprise the rest of the rotation. Not to be forgotten, the Dodgers also have Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May among their starting options. At the same time, it would be unwise to rule out the potential re-signing of either Hyun-Jin Ryu and/or Rich Hill, who comprise the Dodgers’ two best free agents. Ryu would make for a nice, much cheaper alternative to Cole or Strasburg, though he’s also in line to do rather well on the open market. The aged Hill should be attainable on a one-year deal, and he has already said he’d like to remain a Dodger. If the Dodgers strike out on all of those fronts, perhaps they’d pursue a trade for a starter. Matthew Boyd, Corey Kluber and Chris Archer (whom Friedman knows well from Tampa Bay) are among the starters who may wind up on the block this offseason.
As is the case with their rotation, the Dodgers don’t necessarily have to do anything at third. Justin Turner remains a hugely valuable contributor, yet the club has nonetheless explored Rendon and the No. 2 third baseman in free agency, Josh Donaldson. The latter’s the type of short-term, high-AAV player who could be up the Dodgers’ alley. What would signing Donaldson mean for Turner, though? Well, the 35-year-old has said he’d be open to a position change, which would likely mean moving to first or second. Problem is that the Dodgers aren’t exactly hard up at either of those spots. Max Muncy can line up at either place, NL MVP-winning outfielder Cody Bellinger can play first on occasion, and stud prospect Gavin Lux garnered quite a bit of experience at the keystone late in the season. All that said, if the Dodgers do add Rendon or Donaldson, perhaps they’d shop Turner. Odds are they wouldn’t have much trouble finding a taker, as Turner’s only signed for another year (at $19MM) and would make for an appealing consolation prize for teams that lose out on Rendon and Donaldson.
Staying in the Dodgers’ infield, there’s also at least some chance of a new shortstop coming to town. The Dodgers are well-equipped there with Corey Seager, but he’s not the type of game-changer Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor is. Lindor has another two arbitration-eligible years remaining and, relative to his performance, figures to earn more-than-reasonable salaries in that span. Nevertheless, because the Indians are unlikely to extend the 26-year-old, his name has been bandied about in trade speculation for months. Should he actually become available, Los Angeles is reportedly among the teams that would consider a pursuit. It’s anyone’s guess what a Lindor acquisition would mean for Seager. Perhaps he’d wind up in Cleveland or elsewhere via trade. Regardless, despite his waning team control, Lindor’s good enough to bring back a haul in a trade. The Dodgers may have the ammunition to pull off such a strike, though, considering their wealth of assets in the majors and minors.
Speaking of trades, the Dodgers could go that route and subtract from their lineup. Outfielder Joc Pederson is coming off a 36-home run season, though he has now come up in trade speculation in back-to-back winters. The White Sox seem particularly interested in Pederson, who’s controllable for one more year and should collect a fair salary worth less than $10MM. Pederson’s a valuable player, so the Dodgers can simply keep him, but as MLBTR’s Steve Adams previously noted, they’d be brimming with good outfielders even after his departure (Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Kyle Garlick and Matt Beaty). Furthermore, dealing Pederson may help the Dodgers upgrade an area of greater concern on their roster.
The bullpen was often a source of frustration for the Dodgers in 2019, including during their NLDS loss to the Nats. Long-dominant closer Kenley Jansen looked more mortal than ever, while last winter’s big-money Joe Kelly signing probably didn’t produce the Year 1 results the Dodgers wanted. Those two will be back next season, though, as will Pedro Baez, Dylan Floro, Scott Alexander, Adam Kolareak and Casey Sadler. Meanwhile, the hurlers from the Dodgers’ surplus of starters who don’t crack their rotation could also factor into the mix. In all, not a bad group. The Dodgers could still do better, though.
The question is: How can the Dodgers upgrade their bullpen from outside? It might not be that easy in free agency, where the No. 1 reliever on this year’s market, Will Smith, has already signed with the Braves. That move crushed the hopes of the many who wanted to see Will Smith pitching to Will Smith in Los Angeles in 2020. With Smith (the pitcher) and Drew Pomeranz (Padres) now off the board, this year’s class of unsigned relievers looks a lot less inspiring. Dellin Betances, Steve Cishek, Kevin Gausman, Daniel Hudson, Collin McHugh, Joe Smith and Will Harris are some of the best choices left, and the Dodgers have shown interest in former A’s closer Blake Treinen. Meantime, the trade market could feature Ken Giles (Blue Jays), Keone Kela (Pirates) and Mychal Givens (Orioles), to name a few. Whether or not the Dodgers acquire anyone from that bunch, it doesn’t appear they’ll be spending an exorbitant amount of cash on trying to better their relief corps in the coming months.
Unlike some other NL clubs (the Padres and Braves, for example), the Dodgers haven’t orchestrated any headline-grabbing moves to this point in the offseason. However, considering their reported interest in several big fish, that could change as early as next week’s Winter Meetings. Even if the Dodgers veer away from adding any true standouts before next year, the Friedman-led club will enter 2020 as the odds-on favorites to win the NL West yet again. But that alone isn’t going to suffice for Dodgers fans, who have waited three-plus decades since their most recent title and have endured one letdown after another in recent postseasons.
They have to end up with one of the big 3 plain and simple. If not all the narratives people say will be proven true.
I agree
Dodgers need a strong bullpen. Idk what the heck the GM and front office are thinking trying to get more hitters than pitching. Pitching wins World Series. Get your heads out of your butts Dodgers and create a strong rotation and bullpen!
You do realize they haven’t signed any one and all these writers are full of it right? It’s a bunch of people writing hypothetical signings and trade possibilities that most of the time are far from reality.
Your handle auggests that you likely are cognitively challenged.
Dude…they don’t have a GM. What they do have is a great ball club and some less than fully informed fans. Get real
You did see that hitting with RISP was a major issue in each of the Dodgers series losses right?
And why did that happen?
Why on earth do they want to spend $200+ million on a 3rd baseman? They have a good one and their offense is fantastic. I just don’t get that one bit…
They need pitchers, both in the bullpen and starting staff.
Because Turner is 35 years old and will be a free after this upcoming season. Offense isn’t our biggest need but we have way too many swing for the fences or strikeout hitters in our lineup. Which gets exposed every postseason. Turner isn’t one of those players but Rendon would still be an upgrade and last I checked. Turner is willing to play another position. So it doesn’t mean he’s going anywhere.
Mostly because Turner isn’t a long term solution at 3B
My guess is because the 3rd base market is poor next year and they will not want to sign Turner for any length of time
Because they are very left handed. Rendon would balance the middle of the lineup. Pollock was supposed to be that guy, but we saw that he wasn’t, especially in the playoffs. The Dodgers also lack a lead off hitter, with Pederson getting a big share of the at bats there. A guy like Betts or Lindor would be huge for them, and with Betts being right handed, and Lindor being a switch hitter, they both would help balance the lineup tremendously.
So the Dodgers grab Donaldson & in the rotation they add Kevin Gausman & in the pen they grab Cishek?
Gausman isn’t necessarily an improvement over any of our internal rotation options in my opinion…if we don’t land Cole or Strasburg it would be better for us to just sign a couple of minor league deals for rotation depth and to focus on adding another solid bullpen piece or two
Nobody other than Cubs fans like A. Russell. If hes not playing for the Cubs he should see if Siberia needs a SS.
Russell will get a major league deal if his domestic violence baggage doesn’t get in the way
Why does Chapman appear to get a pass yet Russell doesn’t? Is it because Chapman is still a good player? If Russell played like an All-Star after his suspension, would his transgressions been more overlooked than what Chapman did? Chapman got a World Series ring that same year he was serving his suspension and a multi-million dollar contract following it.
I guess if you’re talents are useful to someone, there’s more flexibility to what people will let you do.
I think the Russell mention is Russel Martin, not the other Russell.
Hey Frisco… In 2016 Russell was an All Star who hit 23 HRs, had 95 rbis, and had some big hits in the playoffs (against the Dodgers) and WS.. Somebody’s gonna give him another shot.
It’ll be interesting to see if Lindor is finally the key that pries the crown jewels of the Dodgers farm system.
It’s not going to happen. Not enough of an upgrade over Seager to warrant the cost it would take to acquire him.
Agreed! Killjoy
That’s highly debatable. Lindor is a monster talent and sometimes you have to shake things up. What the Dodgers have stuck with hasn’t taken them all the way. Lindor might be the kind of spark they need. Change is not a bad thing.
Change is not a bad thing but why give up minor league assets for Lindor and then pay him a huge salary when you can have Rendon for just the huge salary?
Well, either one provides change. You either give up a bunch of $$ or some young talent- Which in my opinion, is the currency the Dodgers have not used enough. They have a load of it so why not improve the club that way?
Lindor was not much more valuable than Seager in 2019 and cost the Indians almost 9+ million bucks more than Seager did the dodgers. 4.7 war to Seagers 4.1. This was him coming back from 2 major surgeries. Doesn’t make sense to trade your future for a negligible “upgrade.” Use the prospects to upgrade other positions of need.
This isn’t about money or stats. They need a shake up. What they’ve got hasn’t gotten them the WS.
Just doesn’t make sense to just “shake up” and make your roster and farm system thinner when you can just add to an extremely talented roster in the need of other tweaks. SS is not a hole for the dodgers and will not be a focus of theirs.
I don’t see anyone playing third base except Turner. He’s a team guy, great player and community leader. He’ll sign on for two more years after this contract expires.
They should sign either Strasburg or Cole. Friedman needs to get over his fear of long contracts and instead, stop signing the wrong people (Pollock, Kelly).
Trade some of your minor league talent, that will never see Dodger Stadium due to quality player traffic. Get some bullpen arms, lots of them.
They can get another starting pitcher to replace one of the two they lost, but at the same time they have starters (Stripling, May, Gonsolin, Urias) pitching out of their bullpen.
I dont think they will get 2 pitchers (SP/RP or SP/SP). 1 pitcher (probably SP) and SS or 3rd baseman. Turner will be their replacement for David Freese.
off-season outlook: the Dodgers dumpster dive for formerly successful relievers and hope that Clayton Kershaw solves his nightmares. Rinse repeat 2021-2024
The Dodgers will make a few mid level moves and call it good just as they’ve done in the past.
I am always surprised by the Archer link to Dodgers.
His stats don’t really give cause for excitement.
For what he could cost is he really going to be any better than what we have in the system currently ?
Archer has always been overrated. He gets a lot of strikeouts and that’s it. I want nothing to do with him on the Dodgers. Even if we get him for practically nothing.
I’m surprised that this analysis links them to three starting pitchers who would do them no good whatsoever. Matthew Boyd, really? Where would he fit in between Maeda, May, Gonsolin, Urias, and Stripling? Even Kluber isn’t really a fit. They’d be counting on a major bounce-back season that slots him into the top of the rotation where the need actually exists. So he’d be a costly long shot.
And speaking of Maeda, why no talk about him being traded? It’s a real possibility especially given that he’s expressed frustration at being shunted to the bullpen three seasons running.
And why in the world would the Dodgers trade for Lindor and then give up someone with better production in Seager? And why not even a mention of the possibility of moving Seager to 3B, which was said to be his best position from the day he was drafted? And why no thought about Lux playing SS, when that’s the position he played three times as much as any other in the minors?
And why keep mentioning the possibility of trading Turner when we know the chances of that happening are absolutely zero?
The fact that Turner was mentioned as a trade possibility nearly negates all knowledge the author has about the Dodgers. The guy gets his own day named after him and a year later he’s traded? I get that it’s a business but this makes no sense, especially since when he is in the lineup, the complexity changes.
Also, I don’t think Seager has much or any experience at 3b except an occasional spell in the minors. I think scouts were just projecting him as a future 3rd baseman because of his size as he seemed too long for the 6 spot. I know Corey has some major talent but when I think about his hitting performance in the NLDS, I get angry with how bad he flailed in key situations, like those with RISP. He couldn’t seem to lay off that hard slider that travelled inside and dropped.
Yeah, this is disappointing. The Dodgers were the last of the teams to get an outlook analysis and then it’s this superficial? Not only is Turner staying put I think the Dodgers want him to work at first so they can find a position for him beyond 2020. It would be both bad business and bad baseball to let him play anywhere but LA.
You’re right, Seager doesn’t have much if any experience at 3B and was projected early-on to play it because of his big frame. It didn’t turn out to be true and he’s played well at SS, but as he gets older a position requiring less mobility could be his future. With Lux coming up and the potential for giving Turner work at first, this might be the time.
Yes Seager’s performance in the postseason was frustrating but he wasn’t the only Dodger to flail and fail. I put that down to a lack of preparation and adjustment for way they were being pitched, which Friedman has admitted. So that’s on management and coaching even more than it’s on the players.
I agree with all of that. I think a Lindor trade would move Seager to 3b, and Turner to 1b. An infield of Seager, Lindor, Muncy and Turner would be crazy good. If Lux doesn’t get moved, get him some time in the outfield, and then trade either or all of Hernandez, Taylor and Pederson. Plus, if you move all three of those guys, you clear some payroll to grab a front line starter.
Dodgers should definitely trade one of Hernandez/Taylor and yes Pederson too should be dealt.
I don’t think Lux will be traded; I hope not.
Dodgers should plan/play Seager at 3rd – turn the shortstop over to Lux. They could trade Muncy and/or Pederson for an arm for the front or back end and then hopefully find someone who wants Baez and/or Kelly.
Baez drives me crazy.
Sometimes his stats look really good. But he seems to struggle and get hit hard worse than the stats suggest.
Muncy is 100 percent not being traded. That idea is just ludicrous at this point.
Muncy is too valuable to be traded, especially with what he’s getting paid.
Did you know that offensively, Muncy is a shade less productive than Rendon? If he were on the open market right now, Muncy could make +$20M/year, easy. He’d make more if he had a defensive home. He’s been that good of a find by Friedman.
Rich Hill had elbow surgery and is out for at least half the season so not sure he’d really be included in the options.
Rich Hill loves the Dodgers and the Dodgers love him, and they’re always searching for depth. With his injury history and age, he’ll be very inexpensive, especially to a team with deep pockets like the Dodgers. I fully expect Rich Hill to be in a Dodgers uniform in the 2nd half.
Brewers are willing to listen to offers on Josh Hader. I feel like the front office of the Dodgers should of jumped on that right away. They have enough prospect and players to work a deal out for him. If they can pick up Hader, sign Gerite Cole and Anthony Rendon the Dodgers would be set for 4 years plus. They have the arsenal to work all of that out.
Can’t wait to read the offseason outlook for free agents who won’t be playing next year.
It’b be funny to see what players like George Springer will be up to while not playing ball.
The Dodgers are a powerhouse; they *need* to do nothing – absent any material free agent or trade moves, they are still the class of the NL. That said, Cole is clearly the present and future value stud that would be the star on the tree.
Giving any pitcher a 7+ year deal is frankly insane, but given his perfect storm of relative youth and market, 8/250 is sort of palatable, if easier to look at as 5/235 with a cheap three year tail. Cole is the juice worth the squeeze.
Seager is a year more off the surgery and was lights out during runs last year – he can be the .300-35-120-15 ss he’s shown. He just needs to stay healthy. There is NO reason to move him or JT or do much of anything other than give Lux the second base job and let nature take it’s course. They are loaded with talent for in season moves and there’s no reason to overplay the off-season.
C: Will Smith
1B: Max Muncy
2B: Gavin Lux
SS: Corey Seager
3B: Justin Turner
LF: Alex Verdugo
CF: AJ Pollack
RF: Cody Bellinger
B: Chris Taylor
B: Enrique Hernandez
B: Russell Martin/Austin Barnes
B: Joc Pederson
B: Matt Beaty
1: Gerrit Cole
2. Clayton Kershaw
3: Walker Buehler
4: Kenta Maeda
5. Dustin May
6. Julio Urias
P: Ross Stripling
P: Pedro Baez
P: Tony Gonsolin
P: Joe Kelly
P: Caleb Ferguson
P: Blake Trienen
C: Kenley Jansen
That’s a monster roster.
Kenley Jansen is not closer material anymore. Joe Kelly is overrated, Pedro Baez is overrated. They need a stronger bullpen.
Agree on all points. Trade a bat (Muncy?) for an arm
Definitely not trading Muncy he should be locked in at 1B with Lux at 2B, Seager at SS and unless they get Rendon on a 5 year deal I’d plug JT in for one more year at 3B
Kenley could bounce back he didn’t have a terrible year he just fell apart in some key situations…I’d like to throw another lefty and Giles into the bullpen mix and add Strasburg to a shorter deal with a higher AAV
Agreed. He was still their best bullpen arm, though you could easily make an argument for Urias. The pen was actually really good, once Gonsolin, May and Kolarek were added to it.
Add Hader in exchange for Stripling and a couple of nice prospects (Mitchell White and DJ Peters?) and I’m with you on that roster.
Take out that whole paragraph on Cole and put it layman’s (Friedman’s) terms and put Kershaw back in that # 3 slot where he belongs and I’m with ya!
If the Dodgers did “nothing” like you originally suggested, they’d have an unreliable rotation. Buehler is a solid #1, but beyond him….. it’s difficult to count on Kershaw for an entire season + post season, expect May, Gonsolin and Urias to be highly monitored with innings as two of them are rookies while the other is transitioning to starting after surgery, and Maeda/Stripling are inconsistently good. I feel bad for Maeda being jerked around between the rotation and post-season bullpen since his contract incentives are to starting,
They need starting pitching more than anything,
As for the offense, they need to start hitting for solid contact instead of swinging for the fences, They seemed to lose sight of that during their series with the Nationals
Friedman has already acknowledged that the team was unprepared for how they’d be pitched in the postseason, and that he doesn’t yet know how to fix that problem. This was the biggest story of the offseason for the Dodgers IMO and it floated by with hardly any acknowledgement and no discussion.
hard to accept that an MLB team with designs on a WS title would lack the ability as that comment from Friedman.
Still as with the past 7yrs, many of these players, current & past, do seem to not have ghe talent to either be patient ans qoek counts
My eye saw all pitchers had to do was simply throw strikes early in every at bat. Seemed as if eveey batter was 0—2,1-2 each AB.
It’s got to be due to the actual hitting philosophy itself. Maybe there is a lack of versatility which every WS caliber SP can take advantage of knowing few of the Dodger players will asjust.
Or maybe it’s just the Big Blue Dodger in the sky is pissed about modern metrics?
Basically qho thw heck knows uf the team admits being lost in the PS?
The “class” of the NL failed to win it all, again. And they need to do something.
The Fraud needs to change up his approach to building a winner because after coming up short every year of his reign of error, the TB approach clearly doesn’t work.
Oh yes it does. The corporation is making millions and millions of dollars. That’s what Kasten and Friedman were hired to do.
Pretty sure fans of any other team would be happy with the dodgers product. They’re perennial World Series contenders with unparalleled depths. His approach obviously works fine. Quit complaining.
Wow, Maeda is a bargain at $3 million per year.
That’s just his base salary. He has built in incentives every season to where he can reach 15 million.
And if he pitched well enough to earn those incentives, he’d still be a bargain. He’d have to pitch extremely well to reach them, like front line starter good. His contract is one of the most team friendly contracts in the game.
Doyers need to convert May to the closer role. Excellent out of the pen and he can speed it up to upper 90s. Gotta stop signing hurt bargain deal pitchers and sign short term relief options. Lindor will cost Ruiz, Lux and maybe another mlb ready prospect or two which would still be fine with the depth they have. From Spring Training 19, the pen was always the issue. Maybe Friedman will figure that out…
Starters:
Cole
stras
Ryu
Thor
Relievers:
Josh hader
Brad hand
Position players:
Anthony Rendon
Francisco Lindor
Mookie Betts
Pick up at least one preferably 2 from that list of players and I say the offseason is a success.
I don’t see any AJ Pollock level of players here. That’s the type of bin where Friedman will shop.
Seagar and Turner aren’t going anywhere. The Dodgers aren’t signing any of the top 3 free agents. And they will probably only sign a couple retread relievers for minor league deals. They will trade Joc for a couple prospects. Every year we hear about the Dodgers signing players like Harper, Rendon, Cole, etc. And every year the Dodgers keep to their plan of cultivating the farm and resigning their good players. The only way they sign any of the top 3 is if for some reason they decide playing at Chavez Ravine is more important than maxing out their income. And in 2019 very few players think that way.
Definitely the way that it’s been, but they were also pinned against the luxury tax. The Dodgers are set to shed a ton of salary commitments over the next two seasons. There is definitely some room to add payroll this season.
Why would they sign any of those guys? Roughly 90% of big-name free agent signings don’t work out as well as expected for teams. The Dodgers made two FA signings (Kelly, Pollack) last off-season,neither have met expectations thus far..Puig was a (much) better than Pollack.
and ever notice the rush yo snag WS FA’s despite a pretty consistent WS hangover or a player playing out of his mind for the WS.