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The Cubs will consider major trades as they look to improve a team with holes in center field, the rotation, and the bullpen.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Yu Darvish, SP: $81MM through 2023
- Jason Heyward, RF: $86MM through 2023
- Jon Lester, SP: $25MM through 2020. Includes mutual option for 2021.
- Craig Kimbrel, RP: $33MM through 2021. Includes club/vesting option for 2022.
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $16.5MM through 2020. Includes club option for 2021.
- Tyler Chatwood, P: $13MM through 2020.
- Kyle Hendricks, SP: $55.5MM through 2023. Includes club option for 2024.
- Jose Quintana, SP: $10.5MM through 2020.
- Daniel Descalso, 2B: $3.5MM through 2020. Includes club option for 2021.
- David Bote, 3B/2B: $15MM through 2024. Includes club options for 2025 and ’26.
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Kris Bryant, 3B/OF – $18.5MM
- Javier Baez, SS – $9.3MM
- Kyle Schwarber, LF – $8.0MM
- Willson Contreras, C – $4.5MM
- Albert Almora, CF – $1.8MM
- Kyle Ryan, RP – $1.1MM
- Jharel Cotton, SP – agreed to $640K salary
- Non-tendered: Addison Russell, Danny Hultzen
Free Agents
- Nicholas Castellanos, Cole Hamels, Addison Russell, Ben Zobrist, Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, Pedro Strop, David Phelps, Derek Holland, Brandon Morrow, Tony Barnette, Kendall Graveman
This year the Cubs failed to reach the playoffs for the first time since their rebuild ended in 2015. Following a disappointing 84-win season, Joe Maddon’s five-year term as manager came to an end. Despite Maddon achieving the impossible with the Cubs’ 2016 championship, the club showed little interest in a new deal. It was a pretty typical progression – the Cubs’ performance had become increasingly disappointing, particularly with 2018’s one-game Wild Card ouster and missing the playoffs entirely in ’19. That’s not a situation where a manager is typically re-signed, even if most of the blame falls on the players and front office. Maddon is famously laid-back, so the team brought David Ross in to light a fire under the players as well to restore camaraderie. Ross seems like he’ll be able to improve those situations, and should be equally adept as Maddon in dealing with the media. Where Ross’ lineup and in-game tactics rank remains to be seen, as he has no prior managerial experience. The Cubs protected against that concern by hiring former Padres manager Andy Green to serve as Ross’ bench coach.
After hiring Ross, Cubs president Theo Epstein kicked off his offseason by making easy calls on club options, retaining Anthony Rizzo and Jose Quintana and moving on from pitchers David Phelps, Brandon Morrow, Kendall Graveman, and Tony Barnette. The team also picked up Jharel Cotton, an affordable righty who can compete for a fifth starter or long relief role. Cotton, 28 in January, looked promising back in 2016 before injuries set in. The Cubs also made the overdue decision to part ways with infielder Addison Russell, oddly accentuating that they did so because his salary was getting too high. That the Epstein regime did not cut ties with Russell due to the domestic violence allegations against him more than two years ago is something that many of the team’s fans will continue to find disturbing.
Looking forward, let’s start with the matter of the Cubs’ payroll. Epstein’s not talking about it, but the Cubs were one of only three teams to exceed the $206MM luxury tax line in 2019. Back in September, the Associated Press projected the Cubs’ penalty for this infraction to be $6.34MM. On the surface, it’s difficult to call the team cheap when they’re running a top-three payroll in baseball. On the other hand, it’s hard to see why a 20% tax on the overage would serve as a real impediment to any major market team. It’s worth questioning what would constitute a reasonable player payroll for these corporations, rather than taking their word for it or accepting the luxury tax threshold as a salary cap.
Back of the napkin, the Cubs have contract commitments of about $135MM for 2020, plus an arbitration class that should run around $44MM. There seems to be enough wiggle room for one premium player or at least several decent ones, right? But the reality is that the team’s competitive balance tax payroll is higher, estimated around $210MM for 2020 already. As the AP explains, “Luxury tax payrolls are based on the average annual values of contracts for players on 40-man rosters and include $14.5 million per team in benefits.” Every dollar the Cubs spend between $208MM-228MM comes with a 30% tax, and every dollar they spend between $228MM-248MM comes with a 42% tax. If the Cubs were to sign Gerrit Cole at a $35MM AAV, it would be more like paying him $48MM in 2020 due to the taxes they’d incur, and it would leave little room for other notable additions without accompanying subtractions.
On the other hand, with Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood off the books in ’21, the Cubs could get under the $210MM base tax threshold in that season, at which point all the taxes would go away. Would it be crazy to go to $247MM in 2020, pay a $14MM tax once, and then reset? I don’t think so, but $248MM represents a harder line in the sand since spending beyond that point would be taxed at 75%, and the Cubs’ top draft pick would move down ten spots. After going down the rabbit hole here, you start to see that there’s almost no chance the Cubs will add more than $38MM in CBT payroll this winter, and they could easily choose to draw the line at $18MM added.
It certainly seems like the Cubs will be sitting out on the major free agents for the second consecutive winter. Obviously, any of the big dogs would greatly increase the team’s chances of returning to the playoffs in 2020. With Cole Hamels having signed with the Braves, the Cubs’ rotation sets up as Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Jon Lester. With Quintana, Lester, and Chatwood due for free agency after the season, another long-term investment in the rotation in the form of Cole or Stephen Strasburg would be worth considering. Third baseman Anthony Rendon is a tougher fit, as signing the game-changing star would necessitate playing Kris Bryant full-time at an outfield corner, and Bryant has never spent even 500 innings in the outfield in an MLB season. Or, Bryant could be traded this winter.
Bryant is only under team control for two more seasons, with a slight chance of 2020 becoming his walk year if he wins his service time grievance. Though Bryant winning the grievance is considered unlikely, I don’t see why, since the Cubs’ manipulation of his service time to gain a seventh year of control was the most blatant case in recent history. It doesn’t seem crazy to think that an independent arbitrator could rule in his favor. Regardless, if the Cubs are to seriously entertain trading Bryant this winter, it would have to be after the decision is revealed. Moving Bryant generally seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul, as Bryant is a five-win player who should earn around $20MM this winter, and that’s a great deal for the Cubs. Still, it’s possible to trade a five-win player and emerge better for it.
Who might pursue Bryant this winter? We could start with Rendon’s suitors. Bryant is about 19 months younger than Rendon, but Rendon has become better on both sides of the ball and projects to remain a little better in the short-term. The Dodgers, Rangers, and Nationals, as Rendon suitors, could view Bryant as an interesting Plan B, but those same clubs could also look at Josh Donaldson. If we’re assuming Bryant will mostly be deployed at the hot corner, the Angels, Braves, Phillies, Indians, Marlins, Mets, Rays, or Twins could be options. Bryant could be especially interesting for teams that would never be able to sign a player of his caliber in free agency. I can only speculate so much, but I imagine young, controllable starting pitching would be a key part of a Bryant deal for the Cubs. If the Cubs actually do move Bryant and don’t want to replace him with the large salary of Rendon or Donaldson, they could plug in David Bote as his replacement at third base.
Similarly, we’ve seen the suggestion the Cubs could trade catcher Willson Contreras this winter. Contreras, 27, is one of the best-hitting catchers in the game, and he has three years of remaining control. He’s poorly regarded as a pitch framer, so the teams that lost out on Yasmani Grandal won’t necessarily be all over Contreras. The Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Mets, and Rangers could potentially seek a boost behind the plate and consider Contreras. But the Cubs, much like with any potential Bryant trade, would increase their own exposure by elevating Victor Caratini to regular status, especially with Grandal off the board. “The Cubs are going to make a move,” wrote ESPN’s Jeff Passan, so it seems that after years of threatening a possible position player shakeup, the club will actually do so to some degree this winter.
While the Cubs’ infield could easily be left alone, with Nico Hoerner stepping in as the regular second baseman, the team’s outfield situation seems more unsettled. Heyward has a spot locked down, and has at least settled in as a two-win player who could be used in center field in the short-term. I don’t think the Cubs want to commit to keeping Heyward out of his natural right field position, however, which is one reason a reunion with Nicholas Castellanos seems unlikely. Mike Moustakas, a pretty good but flawed position player without a qualifying offer attached, snagged a four-year, $64MM deal from the Reds. Castellanos, almost three and a half years younger than Moose, seems to have a chance at topping that contract. Given Castellanos’ defensive limitations and their current payroll crunch, that doesn’t seem like a contract the Cubs will find palatable.
Plus, Kyle Schwarber already serves the role as a solid bat-first corner outfielder for the Cubs, and he should clock in at half Castellanos’ salary without a long-term commitment. While Schwarber is certainly a trade candidate, the simplest scenario for the Cubs may be to leave him in left and Heyward in right, importing a quality starting center fielder. That would bump Albert Almora to a fourth outfielder role or trade bait, not that much return would be expected. The Cubs have Shogo Akiyama on their radar as a possible center field solution, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Jackie Bradley Jr. could be a trade option, though not a game-changer, and his $11MM salary projection is problematic. Starling Marte would be an excellent target if the Pirates are willing to move him in the division, and his $11.5MM CBT hit would be worth it. Aside from Akiyama, the free agent market is sparse at center field, with only Kevin Pillar and Brett Gardner qualifying as potential regulars. Though the Cubs’ center fielder doesn’t necessarily have to be their leadoff hitter, it would be nice to kill two birds with one stone. Akiyama has run an OBP of .385 or better for the Seibu Lions in each of the last five seasons, so the Cubs’ interest makes sense.
We haven’t talked yet about Ian Happ, the Cubs’ first-round pick from 2015. The 25-year-old has a career 112 wRC+ in 1,031 plate appearances, though the switch-hitter’s success has been largely against right-handed pitching. He’s been a man without a position in his big league career, though perhaps 2020 could represent a chance to earn semi-regular playing time in center field if the Cubs don’t make a significant pickup. Happ is also a trade option, though the Cubs could be selling low.
Moving Heyward to center field in the short-term is also palatable. That could allow the Cubs to consider free agents like Avisail Garcia, Yasiel Puig, Kole Calhoun, and Steven Souza. None represent a clear upgrade for the Cubs, however. Mookie Betts remains the crown jewel of the trade market, and of course would be a huge one-year addition for the Cubs. As the GM who drafted Betts, you’d have to think Epstein will at least inquire, but a salary projection near $30MM could be an issue for the Cubs the same way it is for the Red Sox. More down-to-earth trade options could include Trey Mancini or Whit Merrifield (who could also help at second base).
The Cubs would be well-served to think bigger with their open rotation spot than Jharel Cotton, Adbert Alzolay, and Chatwood, but it’s unclear how big they’ll go. I think they’d top out at a $10MM a year type of free agent, and possibly wouldn’t go that far. The decision not to issue a qualifying offer to Hamels showed, if nothing else, they weren’t comfortable risking him accepting a one-year, $17.8MM deal, even though that’s the contract he ended up getting from the Braves. It’s also quite possible the Cubs’ rotation will be addressed with an affordable young arm if they wind up trading a position player.
The Cubs’ bullpen is of greater urgency. Given their commitment to Kimbrel, they’ve got to try to fix him after a disastrous stint in which he posted a 6.53 ERA with nine home runs allowed in 20 2/3 innings. After Kimbrel, Rowan Wick and Kyle Ryan probably have spots locked down. Veterans Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, and Brandon Kintzler are all free agents, though Strop has expressed a desire to return. Ideally, the Cubs would add a stable veteran who could step into the ninth inning if Kimbrel falters. Reliability is not easily found among free agent relievers, though Will Harris might fit the bill.
Assuming Bryant’s grievance goes the Cubs’ way, their core position player trio of Bryant, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo remains under control through 2021. The three players should be good for 12 WAR at a cost of about $44MM in total in 2020. While that’s obviously not the strong competitive advantage of paying all three players less than $9MM total for 13+ WAR, as they did in each of the 2016 and ’17 seasons, it’s still a great price for the talent and not something to be squandered. Logically, if there’s a time for the franchise to take a step back and reset, it’s after the 2021 season. With the team’s payroll issues still in full force, creativity will be required by Epstein and company this winter.
That impending Bartolo Colon signing is going to turn this team around. Heard Theo offered him 4/$98M.
Good one!
Then why didn’t you thumbs up it?
Bryant to Tb is interesting. Yarborough, KK, and Castillo/Alvarez?
wayyy too little for bryant
Until the Bryant Grievance is settled it is hard to gage his trade value
get rid of Bryant as fast as I’m concerned, he’s not going to be there when he becomes a FA anyway. they don’t have to completely rebuild, but need to do some shuffling. As far as I’m concerned, everyone should be available but Rizzo, Hendricks and maybe Willson.
Outlook bleak for Cubs. Feeble attempts to right the ship. Gloom and doom in the forecast. Suicide watch is on. What happened to the wave after wave of prospects coming up endlessly that Theo spoke of?
Until the Bryant Grievance is settled it is hard to gage his trade value
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That’s automatic, imo. Two year’s of Bryant is ~ one year of Betts. But one year of Bryant is a lot less than one year of Betts.
Not interesting at all. That is the opposite of how the Rays operate. Trade theoe guy or more for 1-2 years of KB, no thanks. They are better just signing moustakas (if he was available) or donaldson straight up without giving up anybody.
Great article Tim.
Thanks Tim for including the positions of arbitration players. For some reason no one else ever does
Good read, Theo really dug himself a hole here, going to be interesting how he maneuvers through this. They definitely have to trade one of the core players to bring in some reinforcements this offseason.
Hoerner also plays a good center field. Contreras also plays third base and Bryant will NEVER re – sign with the Cubs, trade him. Sign Castellanos, he would be a great power addition that may have to compensate for less than a great pitching staff.
Trade Bryant and sign Rendon? I like it
I like it too
I third liking the possible Rendon signing.
If the Cubs have a competitive bid, Bryant probably will stay. If someone significantly outbids the Cubs, he likely won’t. Bryant likes Chicago and playing for the Cubs. He won’t want to leave unless they are not competitive.
Or, the owners could just sign the best players and pay the luxury tax.
With all of the talent Theo assembled through the long rebuild, it’s disappointing how short the Cubs window was. Now the only shot at another title is by crashing through the luxury tax. Pretty sad.
And does anyone have faith in Theo’s ability to sign the right free agent? Terrible track record.
What’s wrong with crashing through the luxury tax? Are you one of the Ricketts bloodsuckers?
Looking for another Heyward, Darvish, Chatwood, Kimbrel contract disaster to hang around your neck, I see.
That’s some garbage there.
If you think Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon are in any way related to that crap then you’re wasting your time with baseball.
And with Rendon in particular he has a long track record of being terrific
Craig F-ing Kimbrel and Yu Darvish didn’t have a long track record of success? C’mon, get outta here! Now, those contracts look absolutely terrible.
Gerit Cole sure looked like a beast down the stretch run last year, but he has less of a track record than say…David Price, who’s 7-year contract the Red Sox will have to attach a boat load of cash to get out from under.
And while you’re at it, try comparing Anthony Rendon’s numbers through his first six years to Jacoby Ellsbury’s.
Everyone wants a shiny new toy, and hope for the upcoming season, I get it, but those shiny toys from off-seasons past are currently what has the Cubs in a pickle.
Kimbrel had ten days to get ready. Calm down. Yu had stretch of 100k and no walks.
Yeah, I would not write of Darvish’s contract as poor yet. He was a complete stud from June forward. I also would not write off Kimbrel. The one that really hurt was Morrow – 30 innings. Ouch.
This post is decidedly inaccurate.
The only one that hurts in Morrow? Really? If I had to watch Jason Heyward take the field for another however many years, making $20+ million a year while hitting .250 with no power, I would feel hurt.
I remember when they announced I thought, “but…. we just got rid of soriano. WE JUST GOT RID OF SORIANO.”
Long rebuild? I don’t think going from 101 losses to a World Series title in 3 years would be considered a “long rebuild”.
“Castellanos, almost three and a half months younger than Moose” Is that supposed to be years?
Definitely years, not months.
What -a-ya-gonna-do?
Dem weasels in da city council won’t let da Cubbies install Jacuzzis on da roof across da street.
Da Cubbies is broke!
Tommy Tuna and his cronies
They’re far from broke fhs ricketts decided to remodel Wrigley and build around the neighborhood instead of building a team. They have plenty of money to spend of all their pending free agents in the next 1-4 years. They they refuse to do it.
Word on the street is the Ricketts Family asked a favor of the Chicago Outfit’s Tony “4 Fingers” Giacalone and Franky “F is for fear” Orso to put some pressure on “da city council.”
P.S. I’m only kidding and those names are fictional. Please don’t whack or sue me.
Article about Cubs. Cue Themed with a predicatably assinie comment. He cant resist.
Don’t forget chisoxcity and chitown311
Why? The cubs are now irrelevant. I let you guys wallow in your sorrow. I tried to discuss last year how they had no chance but was ridiculed. Now that I was right I hate to gloat.
How are they irrelevant? They are the early favorite to win the NL Central
Top 10 to win the world series
Wrek305- Cubs are at 20-1 along with the Mets Brewers Reds Twins. Oh boy
And so what? There odds were even better this time last year. The odds makers are trying to make even more off you chumps this year apparently.
You tried to “discuss”? A Cardinal fan spewing ‘homer’ nonsense is hardly a discussion.
And who won the Central? Once again check whose won the National League Central more than any other team.
Just don’t kid yourself by using the word, “discuss”. That’s a word used by adults, not ranting homers.
Ding Ding Ding
…and we have a winner. The loser has appeared.
I told you he could not resist. Dumbest, worst poster here.
Offer Chatwood to the Jays for Ken Giles, and add a prospect like Brennan Davis.
They only have one prospect like Brennan Davis. And his upside is way to much to trade right now for Giles
Davis is someone the Cubs need to hang onto. Not give away for a short term bullpen arm
Thinking that Caratini can step in and be the everyday catcher and Happ the CF is beyond comprehension. I wish I could go to my clients and say sorry my work sucked the last 3 yrs but remember 2016? Epstein really F’ed up and still the fans buy into his “plan”. There’s no sustained success it’s all patchwork, minor league system is not productive, zero home grown pitching,failed FA signings. You don’t have to win a WS every year but they haven’t been competitive when it matters.
Agreed, the only way that works is if they plug those people in after a KB and/or Contreras trade. If they get some young studs in return and see themselves winning a title in 3 years lets say, then you put Happ and Caratini out there for the next 2 years and make a run at the title in year 3. That is the only way I can see putting those 2 out there everyday make sense.
Is Happ that bad in CF? I see he’s got 800+ innings out there, and FG shows his UZR/150 as 1.1.
I only ask on the odd chance that the Cubs like JBJ for CF. I was thinking JBJ + a prospect (that we likely don’t have) for Happ, and sticking him in CF.
Numbers don’t show his poor routes on balls and weak arm. Another “prospect “ they keep touting for potential. Good teams cut bait and move on but not the Cubs.
Jhanley
Sometimes the truth hurts but what you said needed to be said.
Caratini was better than Willson last year offensvely in metrics that the Cubs need more of. If Willson is dealt, Theo will bring in another good #2 until Amaya is ready.
The Cubs do NOT have the farm pieces to obtain Whit Merrifield. he’s not going anywhere! Isn’t the cubs farm system rated in the bottom three? Isn’t it time for them to face reality and get that filled again and learn how to develop Homegrown pitching?
You say that every time the Cubs are brought up with Whit. Maybe just maybe there is more than one way for the Cubs to acquire him. BTW the Cubs do have the prospects to get him, they would just drain their entire system. You can’t tell me the Royals wouldn’t be interested in Hoerner, Amaya, Marquez, and a few other pitching prospects. The Royals would pull the trigger in a heartbeat. They would have their replacement for Whit in Hoerner. They would have a starting catcher for when they are ready to compete to replace Perez, and a very intriguing young pitcher, plus other pitching prospects. This is something the Cubs won’t do.
The other way to do this is get a third team involved. Say the Braves (don’t think they will go for it, this is just an example). The Braves need a 3B so the Cubs trade Bryant to the Braves, the Braves trade Anderson or Wright, Wilson or Muller, Ynoa or Wiegel, and a throw in prospect. Then the Cubs get Whit.
The Cubs get the leadoff man they need, the Braves get the power hitting 3B they need, and the Royals get the young pitching they want.
We have young pitching (That won championships in the minors) so we don’t need the Cubs pitching! The Cubs need to grow their own pitching, not trade it away.
That’s why I didn’t put the Cubs pitchers as the centerpiece to get Whit. They were more just throw ins. Nico and Amaya would be enough with a few pitchers to get Whit. The Cubs would NOT trade both of them for Whit though. That’s why i suggested getting the Braves for pitching. The Royals have been saying all along they want arms and the Braves pitching prospects are rated very highly.
BTW the Cubs do have the prospects to get him
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Every team in BB has enough prospects to get Whit. He had a 2.9 fWAR last year, with a 10.8 over the past three years. He’s a good player, but hardly elite. And at age 31, I think KC are drastically overrating him.
You ain’t lying JoeB. I get that he would fill a lot of holes for the Cubs, and many other teams, but there is a reason he is on such a team friendly deal. Unfortunately for him he’s a late bloomer. The man is durable but he will be 31 next year. That’s not good for a guy that relies on his legs/speed.
The decline has already begun there. He’s dropped from 55 attempts in 2018 to 30 in 2019. Dropped from an 82% success rate to 67% last year. (Some metrics will say that if you can’t have a success rate of at least 75% its not worth attempting) He also led all major leagues with 10 caught stealing last year as well.
When his legs go, he will be nothing more than a middle infield slap hitter. His doubles will go down. His days of leading the league in triples will be behind him. He will still be worth the team friendly contract he is on, but that’s probably it. I’m hanging up the phone before they can even finish saying Nic…..Click.
A third team is how a Whit deal could easily happen.
I hope those pitchers are coming to the Cubs, because otherwise it sounds like you are trading Bryant for Whitt, no thanks!
KC would be making an egregious mistake, imo, if they did not move Merrifield. He still has value, but an .811 OPS with a perhaps unsustainable .350 BABIP. is ripe for regression at age 31.
If KC was a contender, maybe, but they haven’t won 60 games in either of the past two years. Y’all should be tanking as fast as possible.
He’s also 31 and the cubs acquiring him would be bad. No one in their top 30 prospects
I agree. Why on earth would kc not trade whit. By the time time kc is ready to compete again he’s going to be at best a role player with little speed upside. His value will probably never be higher.
We will refill since we didn’t make playoffs last year. I’d love to have merrifield . But at age 31 only 2 years to help cubs. They are not a merrifield away from winning it all. If it was 2016 and he was missing piece like Chapman was so long Torres hello ring
And the cubs don’t need him. He’s gonna be 31. That’s not getting younger. That would be an awful acquisition. that’s like Chris Archer and 3 others for matt Garza
I think the Cubs could be one of the biggest Sellers in the market this July if they are not winning with the talent they have…….but the NL Central is weak……and the Cubs will prevail.
The Cubs finished 3rd last year and have a worse roster already. The Reds will be better if they get some bullpen pieces.
Yankeepride that is some straight talk from you. Right now you are correct. They are a worse team at the moment and so far they are all talk on improving
Good thing the season doesn’t stArt today. Ha Reds pounded us last year without adding . Cubs had 15 or so blown saves ? Add those to their &4 wins and it’s 99. If they get a bullpen they will drastically improve . I’m assuming kimbrel is strong next year , we don’t lose every game to reds and all road games . Will be fun to see how division shapes up. Cards without ozuna , Braves list moose Davies and grandal. Let the games begin
That’s due the the huge amount of injuries the Cubs had the final 3.5 weeks of the season. Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Contreras, and Hamels all went down, Otherwise, they likely would have made the playoffs.
We don’t need Merrifield…..we have Nico !
I like Nico, but we just have a small sample size of him. Especially since he was injured half of last season. So we essentially just have a season’s worth of stats to look at for him, professionally. I would agree we shouldn’t trade him for Whit. I would say we find a way to make a three team deal where we give up Bryant, get Whit and the team that gets Bryant sends prospects to the Royals. We then take the $20 mil we save not paying Bryant and sign Castellanos. I know that Javy is elite at SS but Nico is no scrub. So I say move Baez to 3B and play him at SS days where Nico rests and Bote plays 3B.
The roster could look something like:
1. Merrifield – 2B
2. Castellanos – RF
3. Rizzo – 1B
4. Baez – 3B
5. Schwarber – LF
6. Contreras – C
7. Hoerner – SS
8. Heyward – CF
That’s a pretty good line up to run out there everyday.
Heyward is much better in RF. They don’t want him in CF.
Bryant to Atlanta for Waters ,Contreras and max fried, waters and willson Contreras for whit. No matter the scenario trading for whit is dumb
Anyone see the free agent list for next year ?…….Nothing there !
Theo’s BIGGEST negative is that him & his staff did not produce a major Pitcher from their farm system thru the drafts since he took over.
This is true. Free agent misses certainly happen, but the inability to develop pitching has really hurt the organization. They did take the approach of drafting hitting over pitching for many years.
Happ is a good player….but I am tending to think he is our next Joe “Tarzan” Wallis !
Every team have good contracts & bad contracts………at least we are not paying anyone who is out of baseball until the year 2041……right Mets fans !
Good article. Only thing is I threw up in my mouth when he mentioned playing David Bote as the full time 3B. No thank you! The guy is a good bench guy and a spot starter but absolutely NOT a starter.
If they trade KB they just gotta go all in and replace him with Rendon. That’s really the only way to pull it off. Trade KB, Schwarber, maybe even Q and them then the money would even out. 2% chance that all happens I realize.
I do think there’s a fairly decent chance that one of KB, Contreras or Rizzo finds themselves reunited with Joe out in LA. Could be the perfect trading partner.
Bote play 3B isn’t that ridiculous. The first half of last season he played through multiple injuries and his stats were down because of that. His second half of the season he hit .274/.425/.393. His slug was way down last season, but he makes consistent hard contact and his BABIP shows that he did hit into some bad luck the second half of last season so his Slug will go up.
I do agree he is not a starter, but throw up in your mouth? I think the Cubs could make it work with Bote at 3B if they got a HAUL in return for Bryant.
It’s kemp and descalso playing second that mad me throw up in my mouth.
They need to release descalso
Correct. I can’t believe all the people that think Bote is an everyday player. He is a nice guy to have an a roster with some position flexibility and pop in the bat. He is not an everyday player.
White Sox fans are in therapy this morning……their main F/A Pitcher signed with the Phillies !
“You clowns and ALL your overpays for horse crap.” That’s therapy.
They were never getting wheeler. He wasnt signing with a worse team than the mets
You sure Wheeler wouldn’t sign with a team worse than the Mets? Because I’m pretty sure he just did.
If Bryant is traded, there is a 3B prospect coming back in return in that deal !
Not necessarily. Not ever trade partner would have a good third base prospect to send back
Nope. Pitching is coming back or we are addressing another need. If some how we get Merrifield we would move Baez to 3B and play Nico at SS and play Merrifield at 2B.
They will NOT stick Nico at short..
Bohm from the Phillies or Riley from the Braves.
I still say Theo will wait until July to pull the trigger on major trades !
I read multiple stories on the Cubs every day and this piece by Tim is a masterwork in succinctly summarizing the entire state of affairs.
Maddon gone, rumors of trading Contreras and Bryant, moving Heward to CF, bad free agent signings… The Cubs have sunk back into mediocrity. Winning that World Series was great, but it’s back to old business there. Theo is like Jim Harbaugh – he is great for a couple of years but then wears out his welcome and moves on. He’s probably going to bolt for Baltimore any day now.
The song “Even The Losers Get Lucky Sometimes” should be played after the 7th inning stretch at every home game to remind fans of how things are and have always been in the North Side.
Feel better?
Using words like always is exceptionally wrong and inaccurate. I count 10 playoff appearances in the lat 35 years. 84, 89, 98, 03, 07, 08, 15, 16, 17 and 18. That holds up well against most MLB franchises.
“Though Bryant winning the grievance is considered unlikely, I don’t see why, since the Cubs’ manipulation of his service time to gain a seventh year of control was the most blatant case in recent history. It doesn’t seem crazy to think that an independent arbitrator could rule in his favor.” Then what is the purpose of even having agreements? The team can hold out any player as long as it chooses to; there is no basis to rule in Bryant’s favor.
The question is whether teams can create fake reasons to keep players in the minors. To take a more extreme example, what if the Blue Jays decided to hold Vlad Jr in the minors until 2021, since maybe that’s when they think they’ll be ready to contend?
The problem with that is that, if you make an exception for Bryant, everyone will sue for service time. Even if Bryant is the most obvious case, there will be plenty of others making similar cases. And plenty of others with great pedigrees, that fell on their face.
Machado and Bogaerts were both guys that could have, at the time, made an argument that they were ready for the pros, but both were mediocre for a couple of years. The only difference was that the Os and RS were smart enough to keep them in the minors longer than the one extra day that the Cubs waited.
I wild argue that spending 2019 in the minors may have helped Vlad—but 2020? Probably not.
The move was pretty darn obvious but was in keeping with the agreement the players signed off on more than once,
As a Cub fan if season started today I would be doom and gloom. I’m assuming they don’t just sign another descalso and call it a off season . 2nd tier pitcher is a must (mad bum, keuchel ) Kendrick /gregorius and 3 good bullpen arms . Bentances Hudson Harris . Or explore trade route. This may be a reset tax year . Next year Lester , Quintana , chatwood off books. Hindsight is 20/20 but how would his team look if at trade deadline 2017 traded arrieta and Wade Davis . Didn’t trade jiminez and cease. If you aren’t a Cub fan you will never get it . Theo won us a World Series. In a Cub fans lifetime one was all we needed before we died. The rest will be bonuses . I don’t think the minor leagues are that bad. When ranking them experts are wrong all the time . Can’t win the World Series every year . But 2016 we did.
Well, you’re certainly not gonna get very many even handed, unbiased opinions on here. The ‘haters’ are out in full force. You’re right, though. They won it all in ’16 and for Cub fans it was like finally scratching that itch in the middle of your back that you couldn’t quite reach. Sweet relief.
Theo is a media hyped over rated President/ GM. He inherited a ton of young talent from Henry.
Not really. He added Millar, Bellhorn, Mueller, OCab, Papi, Schilling, and Arroyo.
We weren’t bereft of talent, but he added a ton of talent at a very low cost.
He inherited very little talent.
He inherited guys like Manny & Pedro. Great talents, but also costly talent. It wasn’t like inheriting Boegarts, Betts, etc., in their prime, at arbitration-level salaries.
Sorry, I was referring to what he inherited from cubs past regime not Boston.
Theo inherited a team that went 61-101 before he got there. They were a disaster. Hendry drafted Willson and Javy, but early Javy was (is?) a terrible strikeout every at bat. Tyler Colvin anyone?
Marvelous job with the Cubs. He did exactly what needed to be done. Too many GMs take a halfway approach for fear of losing too many games or PO’ing off fans.
Theo inherited Baez which was a parting gift from Hendry. Hendry also had Contreras in the system though it was Theo who converted him to catcher v
There are anti Cubs fans out there who still say the Cubs were lucky in 2016…..they betted against the Cubs and lost…….
maybe they are the same folks who cannot accept the Election results of 2016. !
Lets have a repeat in 2020……just for the fun of it !
Two fantastic events happened in November of 2016 within a week of each other! 2020–could it happen again? Not likely, but it’ll be interesting t o say the least.
It is clear that Bryant has to go, unfortunately. It does seem as though the Cubs screwed him by finding a flaw in the system… Since he won’t be resigning, let’s see what we can get. Obviously, Espstein and company are always all ears open on any offers, but, Rizzo, Contrares, and Baez bring a lot of leadership and energy to the team. It’s really not news to hear them “listening” on Rizzo and Contreras.. That seems to be a pretty solid core. I don’t understand the rush to move them though because it seems as though teams are willing to give up much more around the trade deadline.
It just feels like Epstein can obviously build a World Series team if he is given a complete rebuild for a failing team, but has no ability to maintain or even put staff in place to scout and continue to develop players outside of these top picks. Regardless of everything mentioned, this season is ganna be all about the Bryant vs Cubs drama, and if he is in a Cubs uniform, that has a good chance of being a huge distraction all season long.
Similar to his time with the RS. Theo was better at drafting and smaller trades. The big-ticket FAs were his downfall.
Anyone who watch the Cubs all the tome, saw some positive areas towards the end with relief pitchers……Wick, Ryan, Wieck…and Mills was doing great in Hamels spot……
No more Strop……Cishek…………
Kimbrel had a bad season for not having a Spring Training…….he will be better…..
as I said, by June, Theo will decide if the 2020 Cubs team are Contenders or Pretenders !
I clicked on this article to get a much needed laugh. Some of these trade scenarios Cubs’ fans come up with obtaining Whit Merrifield is hilarious! Just trade away the farm for an aging player while not addressing the bullpen or rebuilding the farm system by bringing in some in good pitching. These articles are going into interesting once recreational marijuana is legal in Chicago in 2020.
The hitting has rightfully been criticized the past few years, but the reality is that the rotation has dropped off since the WS. There’s no dominant Arrieta type. Lester and Quintana fluctuate too much start to start. And Darvish hasn’t had a fully healthy and completely productive season to instill justified confidence as an ace. As it stands, this team has a couple 2/3 types and mostly 4/5 types.
Sure, they can pour resources into their bullpens. But adding the ace they’ve been missing since Arrieta’s dominance seems to be the biggest piece of the puzzle. Anything less this off-season will be an exercise of grandiose hope. This team will not make, let alone win, a WS without adding a top arm to their rotation. Plain and simple. The Cubs wrongly didn’t pursue Scherzer when he was available, and they wrongly declined to trade for Verlander when Verlander had the Cubs as his top trade destination.
After those failures, the failure of the Epstein regime to produce homegrown pitching, and the failure to successfully navigate through the effects of a new CBA and regroup/formulate a new strategy, this club has been set back a few years. The real question is how long Epstein will get before he joins Maddon out the door?
Who doesn’t like Scherzer? But signing Lester was hardly a failure. But I completely agree about not trading for Verlander.
I didn’t call Lester a failure. He was a needed addition at the time. At the same time, the reality is that he is greatly dependent upon umpires who call large strike zones. His stuff just isn’t good enough anymore for him to get away with pitching in or that close to the strike zone. So his performances largely fluctuate depending on who is calling balls and strikes.
Now could the Cubs use that info and try something out of the ordinary, such as moving away from a traditional “every 5th day” and instead choose to look at the home plate umps to schedule him?
The FO—and Maddon—used to be known for thinking outside the box.
All I know is that, looking at the playoff rotations, I didn’t see any Clubs that the Cubs could realistically evenly match up. And to me that’s the biggest problem. There was a point when everyone expected Arrieta to go out and dominate and the team to win regardless of how the offense performed. There’s no one pitching for this team that remotely instills that kind of confidence. Not Lester, nor Hendricks. It’s a lot like Greg Maddux when he returned to the Cubs towards the end of his career: one day he’d pitch a gem…85 pitch shutout. Next outing would by 5 innings of 5 run ball.
My comment was based on your saying the Cubs wrongly didn’t pursue Scherzer or Verlander and you then wrote “those failures”… But that aside, I couldn’t agree more that without an ace, a #1, they will not get back to the next level needed to win a WS again. I would also add, that without a table setter, they’re doomed. It’s no mystery as to why that lineup hasn’t jelled since ’16. They don’t have a Dexter Fowler to stir the drink. Short of something crazy like Ricketts saying, hell with it, let’s go all in and sign Cole or Strausberg, they’re not gonna reach the playoffs next season.
I guess I’m not following you on the Scherzer thing. I’m sure that’s my fault.
You’re correct about the table sitter part too. Cole/Strasburg and Merrifield and some bullpen pieces would go along way to bringing this team back to a WS. Need some vets too. But those two positions are necessitates—we agree!
Hey guys! Great article Tim!!!