Coming off their fifth straight non-playoff season and their fourth consecutive sub-.500 campaign, the Angels were expected to be one of the majors’ most active teams this winter. They haven’t disappointed.
Not only did the Angels sign free agency’s No. 1 position player – former Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon – to a seven-year, $245MM contract, but they’ve also strengthened their much-maligned starting rotation. Granted, the Angels’ acquisitions of ex-Oriole Dylan Bundy and former Brave Julio Teheran haven’t bowled anyone over, but at least the two of them have shown themselves to be durable, major league-caliber starters in recent years. That’s more than can be said for the majority of starters the Angels have run out over the past couple seasons.
With Rendon in the mix, an Angels position player group that finished 2019 middle of the pack in fWAR (16th) and runs scored (17th) suddenly looks imposing. Rendon and three-time AL MVP-winning center fielder Mike Trout could be the best one-two punch in baseball. Beyond them, there’s shortstop Andrelton Simmons, designated hitter Shohei Ohtani, left fielder Justin Upton and second baseman David Fletcher. Brian Goodwin’s the team’s starting right fielder for the moment, but his days at the top could be numbered with super-prospect Jo Adell not far from making an impact in the bigs.
While the Angels clearly have a legitimate offensive core, there are concerns, namely at catcher – which they need to address before the offseason’s out – as well as at first base. Unfortunately for the Angels, they could be stuck with a deteriorating Albert Pujols (he of the bloated $29MM salary) playing a key first base role.
Meanwhile, even with Bundy and Teheran in the mix, the Angels’ rotation still appears to need work. Neither one of those right-handers is a world-beater. Ohtani, a fellow righty, has front-end ability, but he only threw about 50 innings in 2018 before Tommy John surgery kept him off a mound last season. Like Ohtani, Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning and Patrick Sandoval – although promising – haven’t really established themselves so far. Another problem for the Angels: They don’t seem likely to land a bona fide front-end type before the season, as Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler are gone from free agency, and nobody’s aggressively shopping a No. 1 or 2 starter via trade.
Elsewhere, there’s a case the Angels need to better their bullpen, which finished last season in mediocre territory. Aside from claiming righty Mike Mayers from the Cardinals last month, they haven’t done much to address that area. Hansel Robles, Ty Buttrey, Noe Ramirez and Cam Bedrosian will all be back, however, and the Halos should get a full year from Keynan Middleton after he missed most of 2019 while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
It’s hard to argue that the Angels haven’t taken significant steps forward this offseason. Plus, the two front-runners in the AL West – the Astros and Athletics – have been pretty quiet since last season ended. That said, after going 72-90 and finishing 35 games back of the Astros and 25 behind the A’s in 2019, the Halos still look as if they have more ground to make up if they’re going to be any better than a third-place team in 2020. With $20-some million left in spending room before they reach the first level of the luxury tax, the Angels just might make another splash or two before the offseason’s out. Right now, though, how many games do you expect the Joe Maddon-led club to win next year?
(Poll link for app users)
bigdaddyt
So is this just a white Sox and Angels site now?
DarkSide830
they made big upgrades and splashes. these questions are worth considering.
AtlSoxFan
Rendon was their “big move”… I don’t think bundy or Teheran count as a “big” splash or a “big” upgrade.
Really, their offseason has been pretty disappointing when you look at what they came in needing, and what they’ve done so far
bkbk
They literally added more net wins than any team. Please stop talking All added wins are created equally, there isnt much to argue.
trident
I think that is what makes the question so interesting. They did not really address their top offseason priorities but did make a big splash in signing Rendon. So how much did the Angels improve, if at all? I think 80 wins is a solid over/under with a healthy Ohtani and the Rendon addition.
angelsinthetroutfield
If Vegas has them at 80 wins I’m taking over all day long
Vizionaire
a couple of years ago in premier league leicester city beat the 5,000:1 odd and won the championship. a person had bet 10,000 euros on that team.
AtlSoxFan
If by adding “wins” you’re referring to WAR put up by the players, then no, not all added wins are equal.
War is modeled on performance above replacement level players. Replacement level players are those with abilities leading to a 52-110 record.
In 2019 the angels posted a combined +26 war. They should have posted 78 wins, but didn’t due to other factors. With a 72-90 result they failed to capture a -6.x war.
Now, they weren’t as bad as the red sox who posted something like +43 war but only posted an 84-78 record, failing to capture -11.x war.
What’s that mean? Depending what else is going on with a team (and not injuries which are accounted for in war) you could easily capture only 2/3 or 3/4 of that war in terms of actual “wins added”.
5toolMVP
Ill take the over 80!
They will win 87+ for sure, possibly 90+.
Gonna SHOCK THE TROLLS!
People only see 72 wins last year, they overlook everything that team went through. It was legitimately an 80-82 win team that had A LOT go tragically wrong.
5toolMVP
@Atlsonfan
I believe Fangraphs has the Angels roster at 42+ WAR. 7th overall for 2020.
Ejemp2006
Don’t forget a healthy Upton. Plus bat. Plus glove in left.
Also don’t forget the massive coach upgrade. Even if you don’t like Maddon, you’ve got to prefer him over Ausmus.
VegasSDfan
I bet they will be at 85. I would go under.
Vizionaire
yeah, you should go 6 feet under.
giants number 1 fan
J. C. Hahne
I agree with everything you say except Upton’s plus glove. That being said, I think Ausmus himself cost the Angels numerous games. Maddon is a huge upgrade, as is Callaway.
The whole last month of the season the Angels had already thrown in the towel. We have La Stella back playing, hopefully getting games in at 1B. I expect 85 – 90 wins.
PiratesFan1981
You act like Madden never cost the Cubs games. The guy has made so many questionable calls that even Dusty Baker blushes. I doubt Madden is a huge upgrade at the manager position. If you think that, I have a ocean front property for sale in Kansas. Madden only won one World Series with a excellent Cubs club. Don’t act like Madden is a Bobby Cox or Tony LaRussa type of manager, because he is far from it. At least when La Russa made questionable calls (some that cost a World Series game or WS itself), he would make another questionable call the next day and win a game. Madden was a repeated offender of making poor decisions in game calling and failing. As a Pirates fan, I enjoyed watching Madden vs Hurdle matchup. You never knew what bogus decision either one would do throughout the game.
5toolMVP
Ausmus was worse.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
Over 80? Better hope the Halos win a lot of 10-9 games. Yep, they are gonna hit and score runs. But their pitching? Yuck! Hey, maybe even double-yuck!
The Human Rain Delay
hmm I got that they have to take the field 162 games next year and your great model really isnt that great at years end anyway
OtisSnord
If you don’t think Maddon is an upgrade over Ausmus, you probably do think you own oceanfront property in Kansas. A Kia isn’t a Mercedes but it’s a hell of an improvement over a Yugo.
5toolMVP
Last season was double yuck. Last season they had Skaggs death, and mostly forgettable starter performances by Cahill, Harvey, Suarez, Sandoval, Pena, T. Cole, Parker, Bard, etc.
This year they’ll have Ohtani, Bundy, Teheran replace most (450-520?) of those innings.
No they are not aces, but they can pitch and keep teams in games, eat innings. I won’t be surprised if they cut runs allowed by 100-125 vs 2019.
Last year they needed 10-9 wins, this year they’ll win more 7-5.
Phanatic 2022
Could have had wheeler, madbum and dallas for less than rendon
OntariGro
If math didn’t exist you’d be totally right.
5toolMVP
@94yanks.
No they couldn’t.
Wheeler preferred East coast, took $118m to stay East vs taking more to play in CHW, or elsewhere.
Madbum preferred AZ and no one else.
Kuechel is less at 3/55 but hardly a #1-2 SP.
There are trade options better than Kuechel.
Rudy Zolteck
This is assuming those arms pitch better than the bullpen did in the middle innings in the early season (which was actually pretty good), and that this advantage would be enough to swing games against the Astros and A’s. No amount of O’s/Tigers/Royals beatdown will be enough if they cannot topple the A’s and Astros ahead of them.
OtisSnord
Umm, no. MadBum is sharp enough to figure state income taxes into his calculation. In order to match what MadBum would get after taxes, the Angels would have had to offer more than $100 million.
The totsl required for Wheeler, MadBum and Keuchel is WAY more than what Rendon got.
Koamalu
I would have loved to see us sign Cole, but Billy made an 8 year $36 million AAV offer and the Yankees went 9 years. .
Teheran and Bundy are a 6 win improvement over what we had in our #3 and #5 slots in the rotation. They combined for 350 IP last season. No disappointment there for us.
Getting Rendon is a 3 win improvement at 3B and it improves our 2B position by 3 wins. Another 6 win improvement No disappointment there.
We get a healthy Simmons back. With Rendon at 3B, Simmins at SS, and Fletch/La Stella at 2B we are strong in the infield.
Trout in CF. We get a healthy Upton back. Goodwin is capable OF. Adell is coming. At a projected 14 WAR, our OF might be the best in the majors.
Now we need a catcher and a middle reliever and we are set. Half the offseason still in front of us and several catchers and lots of relievers on the FA market. Life is good at the Big A.
Koamalu
I will bet the house on the over if its that low. The only lines I could find right now have us at 86.5 wins.
Koamalu
LOL. You don’t understand taxation for MLB players, that is clear. You are taxed where your team plays each game. MadBum will pay taxes on 43 games in California, Illinois, and New York. And because he doesn’t live there or do any other business there he will have no tax write offs there. He will pay the full tax rate. He will pay more than double the property tax rate and 50% more in sales and excise taxes in Arizona.
People in the top tax bracket typically have businesses and pay just 3.57% in state taxes on average. I pay less than that and you can be sure that a professional athlete has a better tax attorney and CPA than I do. .
If you live in Pennsylvania, you pay a flat tax which is double the state tax a player in California would end up paying.
Koamalu
We didn’t make a splash on our biggest needs, but we improved by 6 wins. That is certainly addressing our needs.
Rendon is a 3 win over our 3B combo last season. Signing him allowed us to move the 4 win player from 3B to 2B and that is a 3 win improvement there. Another 6 win improvement.
We get a healthy Simmons and Upton back. That is huge improvement.
As of today the over under is 86.5.
Koamalu
We are at 86.5 O/U as of today.
GeoKaplan
@94yankees You can post that every day if you like, but that won’t make it a correct statement.
It is widely known Wheeler wanted an East Coast team, preferably close to southern NJ. Bumgarner wanted the NL, and specifically AZ. Keuchel wanted 4 guaranteed years, and frankly isn’t any more of an upgrade over 2019 Angels than Teheran or Bundy, but at the $20M/season range.
Even as your concept is flawed and out of touch with reality, it still isn’t as bad as your math: Did you want to add up the 2020 salaries for your three named pitchers and tell me how the cost is equivalent to (never mind “less than”) Rendon next season?
Rudy Zolteck
Those two pitchers will not stand up to the A’s and Astros alone. And what about the other three rotation spots? The Angels had one pitcher, Cahill, over 100 innings in 2019 and he carried an ERA of 6. If the only way to come up with a 5-man staff is by saying “he’ll bounce back” (Bundy, Heaney), using an injury recovery case presumably on limited innings (Ohtani, and Heaney/Canning to a lesser extent), or just plain rookies (Canning), along with assuming that Teheran’s relatively good luck will hold up this year, then you are going to receive questions like you have so far in the thread. The Astros are going to mash, and the A’s have very disciplined hitters.
OtisSnord
You do know the Dbacks play all their home games in AZ, right?
If you really want to educate yourself on taxation for MLB players, start here:
anderscpa.com/state-tax-implications-major-league-…
You also clearly don’t understand the regressive nature of sales and excise taxes which have disproportionately little effect on ultra high earners like MadBum.
OtisSnord
And meanwhile, back in Las Vegas, people bet huge amounts on the Warriors to win the 2019 NBA championship and the Astros to win the 2019 World Series. They thought it was a sure thing, enough to take horribly bad odds.
rocky7
The consideration is only worth considering if the Angels are able to reverse their 2019 records against their 2 biggest rivals….the Astros and A’s…..5-14 against the Astros, and 6-13 against the A’s….all the pontification about over and unders, wins, Upton being healthy…. the Maddon affect…..blah, blah, blah……if they can’t play winning baseball against them its all moot!
Koamalu
Astros lost Cole and A’s have done little to improve.
Rudy Zolteck
Ok? Astros won 107 games. No one thinks they have gotten better. The A’s (and Astros, though without the top prospect labels) have rookie depth coming up that is going to continue to challenge the Angels offensively and defensively. Just because they don’t live on big name signings doesn’t mean they aren’t in great positions moving forward. That is to say, just because the Angels “had a better offseason” so to speak doesn’t mean they are magically going to improve in their showing by so much that they are in the WC conversation.
Koamalu
Everyone knows the Astros have gotten worse. About 10 wins. Still a 97-98 win team.
The Angels are an 86-87 win team at this point. We need a catcher. But we have no real holes at this point unless you want to say Albert is a hole at 1B/DH.
If we catch a few breaks we can win 90 games and be contending for the WC. .
Rudy Zolteck
I can agree that with if everything falls into place like we were arguing about then yeah they can enter the fray with a few lucky breaks here and there. I just think there are existing question marks that go beyond their offseason.
kingfish15
Cry about it
Kdag23
Yes, and like Sox fans, all Angels fans will proclaim that they will win the division and all the other teams are crap.
Vizionaire
only if mlb hammers asstros with $50 mil roster penalty. otherwise, most of us think the angels will fight for the 2nd place in the west and a wild card berth. if the team is able to find an ace, we may even beat the houston team.
jeff51488
“Beat the Houston team”. You’re a comedian.
bkbk
Depends. Astros lost a ton of wins AND my god . their splits pre and post sign stealing are significant. If it turns out the offense reduces by 15% and they lose pitchers its going to be a bloodbath in the west.
clubber_lang84
You really think the Astros offense was 15% more effective because they stole some signs?
delete
You really think knowing which pitch is coming and what the location is results in less than 15% gains?
Rudy Zolteck
What were the splits and how do you define them without even knowing the results of the investigation?
DM
Maybe we should all wait to see how much of a Houston team is left after the suspensions, unpaid leave, and firings.
DM
A 1% gain is too much. Follow the rules or GTF out. I hope that the punishment is so severe, no team would risk cheating again, Beisbolista.
OntariGro
The 2019 Astros offense was better than the 2017 Astros (the team under investigation), sometimes significantly so, depending on the stat.
5toolMVP
What’s a $50m roster penalty? How would that even work or affect the on-field play?
The MLB will probably impose some mix of suspensions, fines and loss of picks.
Suspend/fine those found to be involved, hefty fines for the owner, and GM, manager. Loss of a first round pick or two. Heck they could even pull an NCAA sanction and ban HOU from post season play a year or so. Anything is possible.
Suspension and fines could extend to players no longer with the Astros as well, the RSox manager Cora, Mets Manager Beltran are two that come to mind.
Rudy Zolteck
That’s interesting you say that because the Sox and Yankees were busted in 17 over Apple Watches and dugout phone usage. I certainly think they got at least a marginal gain. Severe punishment for them? Oh no but that doesn’t fit your bias.
Rudy Zolteck
If the Angels are banking on suspensions, meaning, the Astros literally not showing up to play, then what does that say about this offseason?
macstruts
Anyone who walked up to the plate with a vibrating device which warned the batter what pitch was coming deserves to be suspended. I don’t care if it’s Mike Trout. I’m not expecting anything specific.
But cheating like this should bother everyone.
OntariGro
“Heck they could even pull an NCAA sanction and ban HOU from post season play a year or so.”
Would never happen.
Rudy Zolteck
Oh yeah man they really engineered up some buzzing band-aids haha. Go back to your spy movies dude. I bet it was Russia that gave them to the Astros? Hahaha
macstruts
Mr. Intimidation. Are you unaware that electric devices may have been worn by some Astro players?
From MLB
The latest wrinkle comes from Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman hears Astros players may have worn a buzzer device on their body to help relay signs.
You can’t shout that down with hyperbole.
Rudy Zolteck
Yeah I’m aware and it sounds stupid, and I’m aware that this case is covered more vigorously than cases where east coast teams already cheated. This “detail” came out over a month ago and went nowhere because its purpose was to get Astros haters even more riled up and clicking on headlines than they already were. My opinion, of course. But yeah it sounds outlandish so I’m going to treat it that way. The Angels killed a guy. So not a place to talk about scandals.
5toolMVP
Nobody is banking on suspensions.
I think all teams are just looking to improve, they can’t operate on the assumption MLB will suspend player X, Y and Z 50 games or whatever.
5toolMVP
@Ontarigro
Actually you don’t know that. I’m not saying the chances are high, not at all, only that it’s a possibility. We all find out when MLB decides the punishments.
Of all the penalties that is probably the least likely. It would send a hell of a message to teams about cheating though.
macstruts
I don’t hate the Astros, let’s be clear on that. I’m not asking they vacate their title and I was rooting for them throughout the playoffs.
But the patches don’t sound stupid to me. The Astros were stealing signs. No one questions that… right?
So how were they getting that information to the batter? You can only bang so many trash cans. I don’t necessarily blame the player, but if a player chooses to wear a device, that’s when I start blaming the player.
But I don’t know. I hope they punish everyone who is found guilty, but I’m not pointing fingers at any particular player. It’s going to go, where it’s going to go. I’m not breathless in anticipation.
OntariGro
Of course I don’t know that. The number of things that are “possible” are legion: most being infinitesimal in probability: such as any kind of playoff ban. Cheating is not a new occurrence in baseball, nor is sign-stealing. Leveling an unprecedentedly severe punishment (Black Sox scandal? No playoff ban. Pete Rose gambling on games as a player manager? no playoff ban) in this case is hiiiiiighly, bet my first=born level, improbable.
Rudy Zolteck
Makes sense. I would just argue that they just weren’t stealing in those situations. Just because one pitch was stolen doesn’t mean it happened every pitch of every at-bat and to think that is probably the result of media hype. And this makes sense because they replicated offensive success well into 2019 after delayed feeds were introduced and so forth. That’s my opinion.
MoRivera 1999
You know what this is called? Intimidation
Red Sox were busted for sign stealing. Yankees were fined for an apple watch (no sign stealing) in the dugout. Get it straight.
In either case, hardly like getting caught for months, probably years, of sign stealing.
OntariGro
Red Sox were fined for stealing signs using an Apple Watch. Yankees paid a smaller fine ” after the investigation determined that the team had separately violated a rule involving the use of the dugout phone in a prior season.”
Source: cnbc.com/2017/09/15/mlb-fines-red-sox-and-yankees-…
5toolMVP
What an idiot! The Angels didn’t kill anyone.
Skaggs was addicted to pain med and was getting them privately via text through another drug addict that worked in communication dept. It’s ridiculous to think any teams owner, FO or manager is going to know every players whereabouts and actions 24/7. What they do after team meetings, practices and games is on them, they are not supervised 24/7. Skaggs was probably tested as often as any player, per the CBA, but those drugs were not on the list or tested and not provided by the team or trainers.
Koamalu
May have? Joel Sherman?
Instead of your hyperbole, how about we wait to see what MLB finds.
Rudy Zolteck
How is it hyperbole to disagree with you? I said I don’t think it happened and that the idea is stupid. I also think that with the current nature of the investigation that people can say anything and someone else will run with it. And if I’m wrong then I’m wrong. But Joel Sherman is not God and frankly I find it hard to believe. So yeah it’s “may have” and not “did” and like you said you should wait until the investigation is over buddy. Take your own advice for once.
J. C. Hahne
I don’t know any Angel fans that think that. Realistically, I hope we can grab the 2nd WC spot. Astros even w/o Cole are still really good. And it doesn’t really matter what the A’s do, they will be good.
OtisSnord
Because Angels and Sox fans are unique among all fans in overvaluing their own teams. All other fans are clear-eyed, skeptical realists.
sacball
what do you mean will? they have been ever since the offseason started and their fans claimed they were signing Strasburg and Cole and that we should all “book it”
macstruts
What’s with the hyperbole? People were PREDICTING the Angels would sign Cole. At that point, no one knew the Yankees were all in. Once the Yankees interest became apparent, that changed fast.
As far as Strasburg, a couple posters dreaming does not qualify as ‘their fans’.
rocky7
Yes, they can’t beat the 2 teams in front of them…..`11-27 combined against the Astros and A’s, and guess what Angles….while the Astros lost Cole, they are returning one of, if no the most potent offenses in the league, and the A’s always find a way to play well with less……the Maddon affect…..PLEASE!
macstruts
Well they didn’t beat the A’s or the Astros last year.
dkcsmc1991
This is the only time of year they get press. Once the season starts that will change.
Vizionaire
i saw you on a newspaper. with striped shirts on and a set of numbers in front!
Augdogs
Which other teams are as active this winter?
TheMick7
Although I agree with you, it has been largely about these two teams, I’m glad as a Yankees fan, because we would be taking a beating if it was Yankees / Sox articles (although I could read about the Yankees all day) because they garner so much attention, writers would be admonished for their big-market bias; and, it would turn off fans of other markets. I get it.
Plus, I think it’s good to converse about some of these teams that done get a lot of media attention on national sites.
stewartnbuck
Eppler went out and spent alot of money this offseason. He also traded away 4 pitching prospects and has yet to accomplish any of the the Angels offseason needs. A front line starting pitching, a catcher, an entire bullpen.
5toolMVP
The 4 prospects were low level rookie/A Ball players.
Catcher is easily fixed. Castro and others still available.
2 months before spring training, plenty of time to talk trade for another SP. Price, Boyd, Ray, some others still out there.
Bullpen is ok. they have Robles/Buttrey to close and setup, Bedrosian, Ramirez and 3-4 others. I think they will be better under less load, if the starters can actually pitch into the 6th-7th inning on most nights.
Last year was atrocious not the norm for any rotation.
J. C. Hahne
Don’t forget Middleton.
rocky7
Please…nobody…repeat nobody had as many injuries as the Yankees and they were able to succeed because you need the entire 25, now 26 plus a good 40 man roster to succeed and the Angels do not! Building, but not there yet…..not even close.
Oh I forgot….Is Cole coming home to pitch…..plus Ohtani is their savior….he may actually use a glove other than to pitch? NOT!
Sorry for the acrimony but the noise from Angels fans about how much better their team is drowns out fact….guess they believe in hope and you know what that did for the last guy that used that phrase as his rallying cry!
macstruts
Angels are not the Yankees. They are competing against Boston, Oakland, TB, Texas, Cleveland and the White Sox for two wild card spots.
The Yankees and Astros are the class of the American league.
5toolMVP
Who was comparing injuries to the Yankees? Nobody… repeat nobody! All I’ve ever said was the Angels were among the teams with the highest days on IL, possibly the most by pitchers.
We’re the Yankees better prepared from player 26-40 to handle injuries, yes and probably a bit lucky with the performances of some replacements.
stewartnbuck
how many leads did the bullpen give up last season? and Cam Bedrosian is absolutely horrible
OntariGro
Check those Starters’ numbers. The better question is how many leads were handed over to the bullpen?
ryanw-2
The answer to that question has been answered time and again, and on this thread as well. Their lack of starting pitching taxed their bullpen. The Angels had the best 7-8-9 inning ERA in the Majors through their last series against the Dodgers, which I think was near the end of July. It was the next series against the Orioles when their bullpen finally felt the strain and they began to blow leads. Can’t hold leads if your bullpen is constantly coming into the game in the fourth inning.
macstruts
Bedrosian is horrible? ERA+ last year 141. 9+ Ks an inning. 3 to 1 K to BB ratio. One HR per nine. One or zero runs in 54 of 59 outings. Zero in 45.
If that’s horrible, give me horrible every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
5toolMVP
@macstruts
Trolls just spew BS hope everyone buys it, they have no clue.
Rudy Zolteck
And even if the pen did blow leads, with how many innings they had to carry for the staff last year yeah they’re going to blow some.
Koamalu
Yankees had the most individual visits to the IL. They did not have the most player days on the IL. That would be the Padres.
Skaggs died. He is not included in IL time. We still would have not had as many player days on the IL last season.
As long as the IL is just 10 days you are going to see more and more teams shuttling players on and off the IL instead of playing them through injuries.
OtisSnord
Oh please, none of the prospects traded was a difference maker.. Brnovich and Bradish, the only 2 meaningful pitching prospects traded, will be solid bullpen guys, at best, but not starters in the majors.
Koamalu
Billy addressed our main need. Starting pitching. He added 350-400 innings of proven above average starting pitching. It is a 6 win improvement over our #3 and #5 slots in the pitching rotation.
How well did your team improve its pitching in the offseason?
Billy traded away 4 non prospects. Not a single one that was considered even a possibility of making the majors.
We had no need for an entire bullpen. We were middle of the pack last season. We lost no relievers.
We do need a catcher, but several good veterans are still available in free agency.
Rudy Zolteck
Again, having the better offseason does not mean having a team that is poised to stand up to the other team. The Astros had a staff that struck out the least on offense and the most by pitching. That is, rank-wise, impossible to improve. So saying that a 107-win team didn’t improve is an argument you can’t even lose. Saying they got worse is probably fair. But they have four very capable starters, two of which are aces. Bundy is not above average in any sense and if the Angels’ only priority is to get innings, then that says a lot about where they are in their ability to contend. And Teheran, admittedly, does outperform his metrics. He is an improvement. Again, above average, debatable. And is it the ace material that is required to unseat the big players in the division? Again, probably not.
Koamalu
Of those 4 players Billy traded away, only Bradish is in the Orioles top 30. He is at 26th. He is a 40 FV prospect with a 50 FV meaning the player is expected to become a major league average player. If everything goes right, he might someday be a middle reliever in the majors.
Dodgethis
Every year the focus is on the teams who are making the big moves, or at least a lot of them. This year it’s the White Sox, and really the angels haven’t been mentioned as much. Don’t worry, it will be a different team next month.
todd76
The Steinbrenner’s own MLBTR.
MoRivera 1999
Then why are so few articles about the Yankees?
throwinched10
If they can trade for a solid SP or two then I can see them making the playoffs. They should be willing to trade any prospect besides Adell.
antibelt
Already got rid of their #1 prospect just to shed a little bit of cash. Unless they take on Cash like price, they finish 4th in their division.
Vizionaire
he was far from a #1, troll!
antibelt
Troll? Their 2019 first round pick idiot. Anyone who read it knew what I meant. Obvious Jo Adell is their #1. Smh
macstruts
You said #1 prospect and you call him a name?
Wilson wasn’t close to Adell or Marsh or Adams. He was their 4th best prospect.
I’m not happy about that, but accuracy is important.
Vizionaire
dumdum!
OtisSnord
And by “Just shedding a little bit of cash” they were able to sign Rendon. Let’s see, how many GMs would be willing to give up Will Wilson and Cozart to get Rendon back? I’m guessing every GM with a pulse would make that trade.
MrAngelFan
@antibelt Wilson was the first round pick of the Angels in the 2019 draft. He was far from the Angels best prospect. You may have confused Angels #1 pick with #1 prospect. The Angels farm system was barren for years. They actually have some decent drafts for late. It is far from the best farm system but at least it is no longer the worst.
OtisSnord
What’s intriguing is the number of pitchers they have drafted recently. Between the 2018 and 2019 drafts, they drafted 57 pitchers. Not all signed, of course, but they are seriously trying to address the lack of pitching in their system in the long term. They also appear to be doing pretty decent in signing very young arms with international signing money.
None of this helps for 2020, but it does give some long term hope.
Koamalu
#1 prospect. That’s funny. Can always tell the guys that are just here to troll and have no idea what they are talking about.
cgallant
Mmmehh
bardbot
I buy into the research showing all roster improvement is weighed equally (e.g. upgrading a 3 WAR 3B to a 5 WAR 3B is just as valuable as upgrading a 0.5 WAR SP to a 2.5 WAR SP), I’m all-in on Andrew Heaney, I believe that Ohtani can be elite on both sides of the ball, I think Bundy has untapped potential, at this point I buy Tehran’s ability to beat ERA estimators, I like Canning and Sandoval more than the consensus it seems, I think Simba’s unparalleled defense makes him one of the more underrated players in the League, and Adell could be a difference-maker from day 1, and I still only see this as an 85-89 win team.
Simmons2020
Their rotation just has so many injury concerns. If they put together a healthy year they’d be fine but at this point it’s not practical to expect this. Getting a Boyd or Musgrove type really seems necessary for them to cover innings with above replacement level players. Either that or they do something like a a Wood/McCullers which is more high variance but might work.
DarkSide830
yeah all those players may be good, but most dealt with injuries last year and very well could again this year.
Vizionaire
since i had a surgery to fix my knees i will have more every year?
bkbk
Yo man, we are big angel defenders on here. Past injuries certainly increase the odds of future. That said the oppisite is true too (bundy, Tehran and sando). In almost all cases the Angels starting rotation will be less taxed an desperate which should in theory create less injured pitchers all around.
rocky7
Not if they can’t reverse the 27 losses against the Astros and A’s they won’t.
5toolMVP
@rocky
The Angels replace 4-6 SP that combined for around -5 WAR in 2019 with 3 SP that can add +3-7 combined WAR in 2020. 3-7 WAR between 3 players isn’t a whole lot but when you look at last year and see all the -0.9, -0.5, -1.0…WAR from 4-6 guys…it’s a noticeable improvement.
Plus they added some offense/defense with Rendon, will should have Simmons and Upton healthy & back for 150 or so games.
Catcher has yet to be improved.
Castro? Chiniros? Contreras? Any of those dudes would be an improvement over 2019 Catchers.
They still have trade options for SP.
Price, Boyd, Ray, some others.
Looking at the A’s…
It’s not like the A’s have 4 SP that’ll start 30+ and go 200ip each. Luzardo, Manaea, Puk are excellent but untested prospects, some returning from injuries, I think all played limited innings in 2019.
Looking at the Astros…
They lost an Ace in Cole and a #5 in Miley. Verlander and Grienke are a year older and could continue dominating or have declining years. The offense is still elite but there is talk that Correa could be traded…remains to be seen if that actually happens and what they get back. I doubt they win 100+ this year, my guess is 95-98.
Rangers…
The pitchers are solid but who really expects the holdovers to perform at the same high level as 2019? I don’t. They really need some offense. If they get a 3B and OF/DH they could make noise.
Mariners…
There’s always 2022. 🙂
ryanw-2
That’s happened time and again throughout MLB history without teams having to make major additions on paper and without the defending teams losing much. Every season is different.
wakejeff
More dynamic offense. Pitching is only slightly better. If they do nothing else, 84 wins. If they trade for an ace-caliber starter, they can get to 90 wins.
bkbk
What? They added a 6 war 3b at their historically worst postion, get a full season of a 5 war ss, get ohtani (another 5) . This is a 90 win team that is one player or major player dev step forward from being better than veryone thinks.
Vizionaire
i don’t think trolls are capable of thinking.
RyanF
So Jeff is a troll because he said the Angels are an 84 win team? He’s pretty spot on, and so is the author of this article when he said “the Halos still look as if they have more ground to make up if they’re going to be any better than a third-place team in 2020.” He must be a troll too.
clepto
No, Ryan, but in a shocking turn of events, you are, in fact, there real troll here.
MoRivera 1999
clepto back after several days for another hit as a troll. Ironically by calling someone else a troll. Still no sign in sight of a substantive baseball comment. Just personal attacks.
AtlSoxFan
Unfortunately, team WAR pretty much never equals that number of wins added to the 52-110 expected record of “replacement level” players like it’s supposed to.
To be realistic, add about 3/4 of what your WAR is to the 52 wins and you’re probably closer.
5toolMVP
To be realistic… discounting a team WAR 25% would be extremely inaccurate.
Koamalu
Which puts the Angels at 86-87 wins. Which is what Vegas has them at. We are still a 3rd place team hoping for a step up from a few players to make a run at the WC.
lazorko
In my opinion, their worst position was about -3 WAR, and they replaced that guy with a guy who should be somewhere around +3 to +4 WAR.
(I’m talking about Brad Ausmus being replaced by Joe Maddon.)
Doug White might have been -1 to -2 WAR also. Don’t know what Mickey Callaway will be, but I’d bet he’ll be a much better pitching coach.
5toolMVP
This! ^^
Maddon and his coaches will be huge improvement over Ausmus and his coaches. Easily 5 wins better! No question!
antibelt
In 2015 and 2016, Royals were picked to finish close to last place before the season began! A lot can happen. Rendon can not be as good in the Al West, pitching is still pathetic, and the West is still extremely good. WAR is not an end all for how a team is going to fair.
5toolMVP
On course not, team WAR* should probably have a footnote like…
(*margin of error is +/-6 or +/-10)
there are so many variables.
Koamalu
Royals had a half dozen guys over perform their career bests. You are assuming all Angels will underperform theirs.
Our pitching is 6 wins better with 2 guys that throw 350 innings combined per season. A huge improvement.
The Astros are not as good as last season and lost 66 starts and 10 WAR from their starting rotation. They are still a 96-97 win team, but not the 107 win juggernaut we saw last season. .The A’s have done nothing to improve and will be relying on rookies and often injured pitchers. The Rangers are still bad. The Mariners are going to be closer to 100 losses than 100 wins.
End all be all.
Fare. To fare is to perform in a specific way.
Psychguy
Perhaps it is too much to expect to overcome so many deficits in one off season, but it seems to me that Rendon is a luxury item and the team would have been better served to get an top of the rotation starter AND they still need a catcher. The White Sox seemed to be able do what the Halos have not this off season, that is become a contender.
solaris602
I agree with what you’re saying. It seems like Moreno has learned nothing from the Hamilton or Pujols contracts which translated to no WS appearances. Stop concentrating LARGE chunks of payroll on 2 or 3 players and surrounding them with an at or below replacement level roster. The Angels will float around .500 until they commit to genuine roster building.
OtisSnord
Getting the #1 position player available, who plays a position where you’ve been pathetically weak for well over a decade, is the exact opposite of a luxury item.
Psychguy
Easier to find a competent 3B than a top of the rotation starter and decent catcher so from that perspective yeah 3B was an luxury item. They still have what have been described “innings eaters” these are not front line pitchers. The rest of what they have are middling or back of the end starters. They will be better, but not serious WS contenders this year unless they make more moves.
OtisSnord
“Excellent” and “competent” are not the same thing. Not even close. And of course, Angels third basemen haven’t even been competent for most of the last 15 years. Rendon was not even remotely a “luxury”.
trout27
The White Sox play in the weak Central. The Angels are in the West where Houston has dominated and Oakland is coming off two 97 win seasons. That is a pretty big difference, a lot can happen over a 162 games.
Koamalu
We improved by 6 wins and added two 160-180 IP starters to our rotation. How much more would Cole have improved the team by?
Keep in mind that if we get Cole on the 8 year $36 million AAV we offered, we would not have gotten Rendon.
Rendon is a 3 win improvement at 3B and allows us to move last seasons 3B to 2B, his natural position and improve by 3 wins there.
We do still need a catcher, but there are still several good ones on the FA market.
The White Sox added Grandal who is a 3 win improvement at catcher, Kuechel who is a marginal improvement over Nova in the rotation, and Encarnacion. Not sure he is actually an upgrade, but I will be generous and say that he is one win better at DH. .
13Morgs13
I think Bundy will thrive away B-More. I think he could rebound like Arreita did after his trade away from O’s. Overall Angels had solid off season but not a playoff roster(currently)
DarkSide830
they’re at best just over .500 in that division with no extra rotation help. 85 is a reasonable ceiling.
Koamalu
86.5 wins is the current over under.
steven st croix
Hou, Oak, LA, Tex, Sea
larry48
Texas ahead of LAA, texas has good pitchers.
trident
They are the antithesis of the Angels in terms of pitching/offense. I see them
battling it out for 3rd place. So really three tiers in that division. Oak/Hou LAA/Tex then SEA.
Koamalu
Rangers over under is 77.5 wins. Mariners 66.5 wins. Angels 86.5 wins.
ChiSoxCity
No pitching, new manager, Rendon… meh, 78 wins.
sacball
no catcher or any really bullpen threats
Rangers29
As a Rangers fan I put 76-79, non-biased I put 76-79, if I were an Angel fan… 76-79. So to be clear, 76-79. They have no pitching, and although they have a fine offense, some pieces weigh them down like Upton and Pujols. At this point I feel like they are just waiting for Adell to come up.
imindless
How exactly does upton weight them down? 31 years old coming off an injuries. Prior had an ops+ of 130 for 3 consecutive seasons? Sounds like a ranger fan for sure. How is choo working out?
Rangers29
For one I meant contract wise, as Upton is earning around 20 million over the next 3 seasons. Secondly, Choo’s contract runs out this next year, he has been a mentor, and he has been the most consistent hitter in the lineup over the past 6 years or so. He always hits leadoff nicely, and he backs that up with a high OBP. So even though people think you can take jabs at the rangers for Choo, it isn’t a good argument (like saying coors field effect). And in fact I hope Upton ages well, but I meant that his contract is weighing down the Angels, not his gameplay.
5toolMVP
Upton will rebound to the tune of…
25Hr, .260-270 avg, 90runs, 90-100rbi
His contract isn’t weighing them down.
HalosHeavenJJ
And you’re right. Already bad defense on the wrong side of 30 and coming off patella tendinitis surgery, he’s still due huge money for 3 years.
Really, Goodwin in left, a stopgap in right until Adell, and the Angels get nearly identical WAR while saving $20 million.
Ohtani-san
Rangers dramatically improved their rotation but their offense is poor. 76-79 wins for them is more accurate
MoRivera 1999
5Tool re: your Upton projection
That doesn’t look like a $20MM value.
5toolMVP
@Mo
No? If Upton returns to 3-5WAR production is that not over $20m value? I think so. If not, please tell me what $20m value is.
MoRivera 1999
5Tool
Let me repeat your numbers for Upton:
25Hr, .260-270 avg, 90runs, 90-100rbi
No that doesn’t look like $20MM
OntariGro
Fangraphs calculated 1 WAR to cost $8 million in 2017. That stat-line, well in-line with Upton’s career numbers, looks like likely to break the threshold and create $20+ million of value.
5toolMVP
@Mo
Take a minute and look at Upton’s stats. There are a few seasons that come very close the stats I posted and show him with a 3-5WAR. Anything over ~2.5 WAR is basically giving them value for that salary.
Vizionaire
yup those numbers sure fit the pink rangers!
trident
Really? Complaining about Upton? I’d be more concerned with the likes of Odor.
Rangers29
Oh yes Odor sucks, and all rangers fans want him gone too.
Vizionaire
which odor? texux cow dung or leaking chemical odor?
MoRivera 1999
West Texas gas odor.
MrAngelFan
Odor greatest hit came courtesy of Juan Batista face. He hasn’t hit much since.
imindless
Again this biased website like to have people rag on the angels. I get there a tire fire but jesus man give then a break for awhile.
Rangers29
No thanks. lol
kingslayer23
meh. Rangers arent even worth trash talking about lol.
AtlSoxFan
They get what they’ve been earning with their moves.
Every year that goes by the odds get just that much better – will Trout end up a top-10 talent in history, but never have a shot at a ring? It’s pretty sad, I think they should hire dombrowski just to give the kid a shot.
Boogaloo
The same guy that thinks the angels pitching staff is equal to the Yankees is calling other people biased.
darkstar61
Yes, but he also openly admits he is mindless, so I lean towards it all being an act that should not be taken seriously.
imindless
The website is clearly biased towards the east coast clearly all the articles hype up the east coast teams and make all move west coast make to be the worst. Last time i checked angels and yankees have same amount of chips last 20 years
Boogaloo
Last 20 years the Yankees have more “chips”, lol
No one is this wrong all the time.
Dr_Doom14
This isn’t a liberal arts college.
OtisSnord
It’s a culinary arts college.
Ronk325
Their pitching staff is still horrendous and the Astros and A’s are both still far superior teams in their division. The Angels won’t win more than 80 games
5toolMVP
Per fangraphs …Angels team WAR is slightly ahead of the A’s team WAR. They both trail Houston by about 11-13 WAR.
Ronk325
I’d hate to break it to you bud but team WAR doesn’t mean anything. The A’s were far better than the Angels last year and now they’ll get a full season out of Manaea and likely see Puk and Luzardo join the rotation full time. The A’s will finish around 15 games better than the Angels and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rangers finish in 3rd in the division
5toolMVP
Yeah I know team WAR isn’t highly accurate. Too many variables…Things happen, players die, major injuries, etc.
If you think last seasons 72 wins is the norm you’re in for a shock. That being said I think the 2020 Angels win 87 to 90 games and I seriously doubt the A’s win 15 more than the Angels. I bet It’ll come down to the final week.
Ronk325
I can’t see any possible way the Angels win that many games. Ohtani probably won’t make more than 20 starts, the rest of the rotation is filled with 4s and 5s, and the bullpen is even worse than the rotation
5toolMVP
If Ohtani pitches a once a week, like his Japan league schedule (say Sundays) he would have 26 starts followed by 8 Monday off days. So at maximum he should get 26 starts based on his Japan league scheduling. If the Angels are cautious, I would expect he might get 1 start off per month or -4-5 starts, leaving him starting 21-22 games. He will almost certainly be on a pitch limit of around 80-100 per game, that should allow him to get 5-7IP per game most starts. 125IP is a reasonable expectation. I’d argue Heaney, Bundy, Teheran are not 4s and 5s (more like 2,3,4s) but I’ll play along…If the “4s and 5s” can eat 170-200 innings each with ERA/FIP in the 4.0-4.5 range they should be in most games. The bullpen is better than you think you know…just over worked (openers and many 4-5th inning appearances) and other times just misused by Ausmus and staff.
Ronk325
I respect you being optimistic about your team but I just don’t see what you see
ryanw-2
If WAR doesn’t mean anything then why are front offices using it? Why is ESPN using it? If you don’t understand WAR, just admit it. WAR lines up with overall performances, good or bad. MVP’s are often at or near the top in WAR. It needs fine tuning like any other stat. But it’s way more useful than just looking at OPS. Where does base running factor in? Defensive value? And so on.
Ronk325
I never said WAR doesn’t mean I said team WAR doesn’t mean anything. Also WAR itself can be misleading which is why it should not be used as the be all and end all stat. Simply comparing the rosters of the A’s and Angels will show you that the A’s have the far superior team
Dr_Doom14
Arte has never invested in pitching. $144.5mil is towards position players, while $45mil is towards pitching. Someone send Arte the memo that reads: PITCHING WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!!!
Because apparently, he missed that memo.
As for their current rotation, it’s pretty much Bundy, and Terhan. Ohtani will be limited this year. Heaney has never had a full/healthy season, Canning was good in the beginning, but hitters adapt and when they did his ERA blew up to the mid 4’s, and Sandoval was much worse.
Eppler seems content with their current rotation and now he’ll hope for a miracle.
But hey, they got Rendon *two unenthusiastic thumbs up*
Vernon Wells, Gary Mathews, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton.
No pitching…. EVER!
The definition of insanity doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Maybe the problem isn’t Eppler or any of their other incompetent GMs since Stowman, maybe the problem is Arte Moreno..A guy who cares more about putting butts in the seats than investing in a winning franchise.
Good luck, Trout
darkstar61
Yes, the problem is very clearly Arte. He has been the aggressor in all of those big name additions you listed, even at the objection of the then GM on a couple of them. He sees a flashy, hot bat and usually must have it.
The consistency in which his teams both over value a hot bat and undervalue pitching, regardless who the GM is, shows without doubt it is Arte micro-managing decisions.
Couple that with the odd self-imposed spending limits and you have yourself one horrible owner
urnuts
Exactly. Well stated!
5toolMVP
Actually…and not surprisingly, you are wrong.
Arte has invested in SP in the past. Colon won a CY in 2005 and was signed few years after Arte bought the Angels, Wilson was another SP signing 2011, he was rated #2 overall FA after Pujols and the top SP that offseason, but obviously his performance didn’t live up to the contract.
Heaney had a full season in 2018. 30starts, 180IP. They definitely need more seasons like that from him.
Ohtani will probably be on a pitch limit 90-100? pitches and start 1 game a week if they do the rumored Sunday start schedule. That should equate to 24-26 starts. That’s 24-26 games NOT started by Suarez, Sandoval, Dillon, etc. I’ll take it!
Canning was a rookie, had a late season injury but his trajectory should only go up.
Bundy and Teheran are not aces but if they pitch to their 3yr average stats, they will solidify and stabilize the rotation. They don’t need to be aces, just pitch into the 5th-6th-7th innings consistently and NOT be Cahill/Harvey. They can do that.
J. C. Hahne
THIS!!!
Dr_Doom14
“Arte has invested in pitching” then you throw one name out: CJ Wilson hahaha c’mon, man!
Ohtani: should
Canning: should
Not a lot of promises there, buddy.
Heaneys “full season” also involved a 4+ ERA.
And if Bundy lives up to his 3yr AVG, then we should expect another 4.75ERA season. Cool.
Terhan is the only addition that I like. Other than that, it’s a mediocre rotation. And again, Angel fans show their love for mediocrity.
So what we’re looking at here is: Hopefully Ohtani stays healthy. Hopefully Canning stays healthy and doesn’t produce another 5+ ERA. Hopefully Heaney has a full healthy season with 4+ ERA. Hopefully Bundy does what Bundy does… I guess. And Terhan to be Terhan.
Yup, it looks like another mediocre season for the Angels. One of the highest payrolls in baseball and they’ll finish 3rd again… because their owner is a billionaire who doesn’t know a thing about baseball and building a winning team. Not to mention his lack of zip code knowledge
macstruts
I’ll make you a promise. If the Angels get 100+ starts from their 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th best starters, like they did in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 they wont have a solid rotation this year either.
If they get 120+ starts from their one through six starters, they will have a solid rotation. At least as solid as the 2011 Cardinals, 2013 Red Sox and 2015 Royals.
macstruts
I hate the cliché PITCHING WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!!! It’s not insightful or accurate. Sure I’d rather have an ace, but Just over the last decade who were the aces of the 2011 Cardinals, 2013 Red Sox, 2015 Royals.
And by the way, Who was the last free agent pitcher to win the Cy Young award? A free agent picked up by the Angels. And Wilson was the two year ace of the Rangers team that went to back to back World Series. He had an ERA+ of 142 throse two years. The Angels don’t ignore free agent pitching.
Dr_Doom14
Lol what?! Every team you named had solid pitching, bro! The Angels have dumpster dived for pitching for almost a decade! Ever since Weaver left. The angels don’t ignore pitching, but they ignore good pitching.
macstruts
Solid pitching. No it’s now down to Solid Pitching Wins Championships. And you need to look at the starters for those teams again.
The last four years, the Angels have had one starting pitcher not go on the DL. Bet they are all capable of being solid.
Dr_Doom14
Cardinals 2011:
Chris Carpenter 3.40 ERA
Jamie Garcia 3.50 ERA
Kyle Lohse 3.30 ERA
Edwin Jackson 3.50 ERA
All with 30+ starts
Red Sox 2013
John Lester 3.70 ERA
John Lackey 3.50 ERA
30+ starts
And lights out bullpen
Royals 2015
Volquez 3.50 ERA
Ventura 4ERA
Duffy 4ERA
Young 3.ERA
30+ starts
And the best bullpen in baseball
What have the Angels had recently? Exactly. Pitching wins championships.
macstruts
OPS+ Cardinal Pitchers 108, 104, 109, 80, 104
OPS+ of Red Sox Pitchers. 110, 117, 90, 95.
OPS+ of Royals Pitchers. 118, 103, 70, 102. And who was their ace? Thirty Six year old Chris Young. Who after that had a 6.52 ERA for the rest of his career. Who was the king of the “dumpster dives”.
You don’t think the Angels are capable of that?
Dr_Doom14
They still had pitching… regardless if the players regressed a few years later. And they still won a championship.
macstruts
And if you think they Angels are incapable of that, then we completely disagree.
What did you call Tehran? His ERA+ last year was 119. You don’t consider him solid but would have been the ace of those staffs.
If the Angels get 120 starts from their 1 – 6 pitchers, they’ll top those marks.
Dr_Doom14
Lol they’ve shown that they are incapable of just that. Which is why they lose every year. Terhan is their only starter capable of having a good season. Ohtani should be solid if he’s healthy. Again, it’s a bunch of “ifs”
The Angels need one more solid SP to have a shot at a WC or division. They also need help in the bulllen, which is another area that Arte overlooks. It’s the same bs with this owner and it’s old.
macstruts
You think Teheran, who is the last Angel starter being drafted in expert fantasy baseball leagues is the only starter on the Angels capable of a good season?
I don’t know how to answer that.
ryanw-2
Bartolo Colon, Kelvin Escobar, Paul Byrd, Jon Garland, Scott Kazmir, Joel Pineiro, Dan Haren, Zack Greinke (rental), and CJ Wilson were all either signed or acquired under Arte’s ownership. I could even be leaving out a couple. Not all of them panned out, but Arte still went out and got those arms. Plus, all of their starters that have gone down with major injuries during this decade, mainly from 2014 to now, have been young controllable starters. Richards, Shoemaker, Heaney, Skaggs, Tropeano, and Ohtani, if mostly healthy, would’ve given them one of the best young rotations in the Majors this whole time. The Angels have been set up very well to have good pitching for a long time. Unfortunately, they just happened to be a team that endured about as many career threatening injuries to their starting rotation as any organization could possibly have. No team would be able to overcome that. Because along with those injuries came having to pay those pitchers’ arbitration salaries for not pitching. That adds up. Now that most those arbitration salaries are off the books, they were finally able to go out and get some arms off the open market. So matter the circumstances, Arte Moreno has invested in pitching. A lot.
macstruts
RyÅn W Krol
I agree with most of what you wrote. Dory in finding Nemo has a better memory than some baseball fans.
5toolMVP
Ryan has a better memory than I. LOL
sufferforsnakes
How good are the Angels?
Not good.
Boogaloo
Imagine having an awful rotation, adding dylan bundy and Julio Tehran then thinking you’re a playoff team, lol.
I give the Rangers a better shot at a wild-card.
macstruts
The Angels didn’t get an ace. But their staff isn’t that bad. They finally added someone to hit behind Trout.
Fantasy leagues are drafting and I’ve played in fantasy leagues with ex major league GMs, ex players who have jobs at MLB network and I can tell you fantasy experts are better at analyzing players future performances than the former.
Othani is getting picked before Luzardo. Heaney is getting picked before Manaea. Canning is getting picked before Puk. Teheran is getting picked before Fiers. The big difference is the PED guy who was never good until last year vs Bundy.
The Angels should be competitive, not for the division, but for a wild card.
The Angels were five games over 500 on July 24th and this team should be better than that team. Anyone who thinks the Angels went into the off-season as a team with 90 loss talent doesn’t have a clue.
urnuts
LMAO
Vizionaire
LYBAO!
athleticsnchill
You’re kidding. Ohtani vs. Luzardo I’ll give you, but the other 3 it isn’t even a question. Manaea wipes the floor with Heaney, healthy Puk with all 5 pitches makes Canning look like a Single A pitcher, Fiers spent 4 months last year being the best pitcher in baseball with one of the worst catchers in baseball and Montas even “with PED’s” has much better stuff with the addition of the splitter than Bundy.
The Angels have the better offense on paper, and even with the question of “how good are they really” the A’s rotation makes the Angels rotation look bad.
macstruts
athleticsnchill, that’s how the experts are drafting them. This is for 2020. Not 2021. My point is these staffs are very comparable and here is why.
Ohtani vs Luzardo. They are both coming back from injuries, they are both tough to gauge. To me it’s a pick em. They will be effective the innings they pitch.
I.M.O. here is why they are taking Heaney. Manaea is not going to be more successful than Heaney when Heaney is striking out 11 per nine and Manaea is striking out 6. That’s what Manaea struck out per nine in 2018, 6 batters per nine. Manaea is going to have to massively increase his K rate.
Canning reached his innings limit last year. Puk is coming back from TJ surgery. Again, I’ll take Canning. Puk has huge upside, but he’s not going to pitch the innings Canning is likely going to pitch.
What people miss about Teheran is he throws 5 pitches. That’s why he always out performs his peripherals. He’s not great, but batters are not squaring him up either. I’ll take Teheran over Fiers. But really, it’s a pick em. .
Montas? I don’t know who he is. I know he had a negative WAR going into last year and he got busted for PEDs. I don’t know how anyone knows who he is. But he can be the difference maker.
Basitt is 31 years old with a lifetime 3.7 WAR. He’s not a difference maker.
OntariGro
I’ll set aside Ohtani v, Luzardo which is an impossible comparison to predict.
“Manaea is not going to be more successful than Heaney when Heaney is striking out 11 per nine and Manaea is striking out 6”
Manaea has been more successful than Heaney through literally every one of their concurrent seasons with a lower k/9 (way to compare Heaney’s top performance to Manaea’s floor). This comparison is actually a pretty perfect illustration as to why using Fantasy Baseball mock draft position as a real-life performance predictor is a mistake: they are two different games.
Heaney’s K rate is much more valuable in Fantasy Baseball where stats are converted to points, where a championship could come down to which team accumulated more Ks over the season. In real baseball, reducing a player’s performance/value to his K-Rate makes no sense.
“Canning reached his innings limit last year.”
Canning was shut down for the season while on the IL, after an MRI revealed a recurrence of the elbow inflammation that had caused an earlier IL trip.
“Puk is coming back from TJ surgery. ”
Puk missed 2018 while recovering from TJ. He pitched in 2019, including a late August call-up to the MLB. He’s already “come back” from TJ surgery.
“Puk has huge upside, but he’s not going to pitch the innings Canning is likely going to pitch.”
Impossible to say with Canning’s elbow still a question mark.
“Montas? I don’t know who he is.”
Always great when doing a side-by-side rundown.
“Basitt is 31 years old with a lifetime 3.7 WAR. He’s not a difference maker.”
Having a 6th/spot starter whose 2019 was better than literally every ’19 Angel starter isn’t a difference-maker now? If the Angels are going to go with the 6-man rotation, they should consider finding their own Chris Basitt.
macstruts
Ontaria. I loved your post. So much better than simply sniping back.
To counter. Both teams need a sixth man. Both teams need to find their Bassitt. And I don’t think that’s going to be Bassitt.
Puk pitch 37 innings last year. Massive K rates, but struggled with control. Canning’s elbow is a question mark. He was shut down for inflammation. His last three outings pitched 17 innings struck out 17 and allowed 4 runs. I’ll take the elbow inflammation over TJ surgery. But it’s debatable. Puk has huge upside.
Manaea pitched 66 innings last year and I think it’s very debatable who pitched better in 2018. Heaney FIP 3.99 180 IP. Manaea FIP 4.36 160 IP. As far as upside, give me Heaney. However, again, I think it’s debatable.
We agree Ohtani vs Luzardo and Teheran vs Fiers is debatable.
The big difference in this Montas. Who all of a sudden found it the year he got caught taking PEDs.
For 2020 (not 2021), I don’t buy the hype of the A’s staff and I don’t buy the negativity of the Angels staff. After 2020 plays out, we are having a completely different conversation.
athleticsnchill
Puk pitched more than 37 innings last year, but MLB doesn’t track extended spring training innings or bullpen innings, and the organization has openly said they don’t expect an innings limit for him or Luzardo this year. Control is always going to be an issue for him, but with swing and miss stuff that nasty it doesn’t really matter, if he can keep it near the zone he’s going to induce whiffs. He also only used his fastball and slider when he was first called up, and saw drastic improvements as he reintroduced his curveball and his changeup. So you’ve got a 6’7 left handed pitcher with a plus-plus fastball, a plus slider and 2 average pitches in his changeup and curveball. That gives him the floor of a guy with pitchability if anything.
Manaea is actually similar to Puk in some ways. He was a high value prospect, and the injury that prompted his shoulder surgery at the end of 2018 sapped him of meaningful velocity throughout his career. So he stopped trying to throw and learned how to pitch. He keeps guys off balance, and even after missing most of 2019 he came back and his K/9 spiked to almost 10 strikeouts per 9 innings while he induced tons of soft contact. We’ll see if his velocity returns to his prospect days, although I doubt it, but even a marginal improvement gives you another tall lefty that throws across his body at 91-93mph with 2 other average pitches.
As for Montas there is an explanation for how he found it and why PED’s are irrelevant to how he found it, even if the PED he took did plausibly improve his stuff, which it didn’t. Montas had always been a 2 pitch pitcher. High velocity fastball and slider. In 2019 he added a splitter he had been tinkering with, and that was the difference maker. Hitters just had to sit on 2 pitches before, now they’re getting something with much greater vertical break than either of the two pitches they knew he would throw. That’s why he “suddenly found it.” The PED, for the record, wasn’t a PED, it was a banned substance, and a substance that I guarantee you a ton of pitchers use. The one found in his system just wasn’t on the list of approved substances, and MLB made an example of him for it. It did very little to help him, which is backed up by career low velocity, and PED’s don’t help you throw a pitch better.
So you don’t have to “buy the hype” as you say, but you should also recognize that the A’s have worked with much less than what they’re going into 2020 with and come out with pretty stellar results. But from the Angels we’ve seen this song and dance before and it hasn’t been pretty. There is also the question of pitching depth. The A’s have 5 guys with pitchability sitting in the system, ready to come up and snag a job. What do the Angels have?
macstruts
I CLEARLY understand your optimism. The A’s are amazing. How they won so many games with that staff the last two years goes beyond analysis. They averaged 90+ losses from 2015 to 2017, then they got pitching from pitchers that still defy belief.
Manaea highest prospect ranking was 45th. Heaney 25th. And Heaney is still making his way back from TJ surgery, which is why I don’t think the road for Puk (30th), or Ohtani(1st) is all smiles and rainbows for 2020.
Luzardo, rotatator cuff strain, Grade two lat strain. As up mentioned, he’s as big of a risk for 2020 as Ohtani.
And everyone has excuses for PEDs.
5toolMVP
You lost me at “mlb doesn’t track spring training innings or bullpen innings” lmao
Yeah nobody tracks that or cares about that.
If you said Puk, Luzardo, etc pitched significant MiLB innings + MLB innings then okay “maybe” they can make the jump to 160-200ip. I’d be surprised if two of them pitch at least 28 starts, 175IP.
macstruts
I think he’s just saying he has built up his arm strength and is ready to go. I don’t think Puk is going to hit the floor running anymore than Ohtani is going to hit the floor running. If Ohtani gives the Angels 100 good innings, I’ll be pretty happy, How many years did it take Minor to comeback from TJ?
Minor was good in 2013 at age 25. I think he had TJ in 2014, finally ready to build up arm strength in 2018. And only then being ready to pitch well at age 31 in 2019. Ranger fans are counting on him this year, even though his FIP, which has pretty much matched his ERA, was 4.25 last year.
TJ surgery is more than a one year deal, it’s why the Angels need a sixth starter.
TheMick7
I’ve said a lot of positive comments about the ChiSox offseason because I believe they did well… But, in the Angels defense, I do believe they are better than what they’re given credit for, even with only the one big signing of Rendon and their failure to get a true ace… I have them at 80-84 wins, conservatively, and here’s why: I know it’s easy to plan on injuries but they are too many variables, so until it happens, you can’t plan on it.
Angels lost Ohtani for much of the year. Although I disagree with how they’re using him (I think there are enough bats, he should be FT pitcher), one can argue he is a true ace- he has the stuff. If he’s healthy and pitches to his potential, that’ll be huge. Also, Heaney is projected to improve a bit, and, even though I don’t like the Bundy signing, he also has favorable projections.
So, although they won’t win rotation of the year, they have a good team, whether anti-Angels want to admit it or not.
R.D.
The lineup is top heavy but potent and the bullpen is above average. The defense is pointedly above average too.
Doesn’t make up for the bottom-5 in the league rotation. Ohtani shouldn’t pitch more than 100 innings this year and Bundy/Tehran are a decent 3 and 4 pitcher depending on the week. They won’t get far without a lot of things falling right.
TheMick7
RD, what did you project their record to be in the above poll?
5toolMVP
Ohtani should exceed 100ip. They’ve said he has finished his TJ rehab and will take a break then resume light workouts heading into ST.
If they put him on a once a week pitching schedule that’ll be about 24-26 starts, I think it’s safe to say he’ll be on a pitch limit per game, maybe 80-100? 125-140ip for Ohtani wouldn’t surprise me.
HalosHeavenJJ
I’d be surprised at anything over 20 starts and 100-120 innings. There will likely be some weeks he’s given extra rest.
We have him for four more years. No need to rush anything.
5toolMVP
They play 26 Sunday’s, with 8 Monday’s off. If he pitches once a week (on Sundays) as many sites have mentioned and has a pitch limit of say 90 pitches he should be able to get 5-7IP per start and could skip one here or there. This is ideal so he can rest the arm and not miss a game (or too many games) as DH, then DH Tues-Fri/Sat.
100ip should be reasonably easy. I think the upper limit is 140IP if they use him on that type of schedule.
HalosHeavenJJ
And that’s exactly how they used him in 2018. I can see him getting a couple weeks off, like the Sunday before the All Star break, for extra rest.
Your numbers look right. I hadn’t counted the actual number of Sunday games.
Murphi Kennedy
I agree, so far the off-season is been pretty disappointing. I don’t Count picking up a position player or you didn’t really need, but I’m glad that we have, when you have a glaring weaknesses in the pitching staff to address. With all the top players off of the board, you now I have to resort to trade.
MrAngelFan
@Murphi Kennedy There were 2 aces available, Cole and Strasburg. The Angels missed on both of them. The Angels have been deficient at 3rd base for years. They were hoping Cozart could fill that void, but he was injured in the 2 years he was with the Angels. The Angels haven’t had a prototypical 3rd baseman since David Freese, and even he wasn’t that good. We haven’t had a good prototypical 3rd baseman since Troy Glaus in the early 2000s. To say 3rd base wasn’t an area of need would be wildly inaccurate. It was and had been for years. I am not ecstatic about our rotation, but I see upgrades over last years rotation. I can see this rotation being able to save the bullpen some innings, allowing them to rest more. We didn’t get an ace that we were all hoping for, but there were 3 top tier free agents available this year and we did get one of them.
crazylarry
Angels have added another group of has been pitchers and one stud 3rd baseman. Stick a fork in them for another year.
5toolMVP
Time to take your crazy pills crazylarry.
rycm131
Not very
HalosHeavenJJ
We play in probably the best division in baseball, definitely in the AL. That will shave off wins.
Adding Rendon, and soon Adell should be a nice boost to the lineup. The infield defense is arguably the best around in Rendon, Simba, Fletcher.
But the pitching staff lacks a true game dominator and catcher is a black hole in the lineup. We’re bit better than .500 unless a pitcher has a breakout year.
TheMick7
Halo, I had them at 80-84, where did you?
HalosHeavenJJ
Same. Tough division and looking at sub par production from first, catcher, and possibly left.
Decent but not good rotation.
OtisSnord
What do you think are the chances for a reasonable Price trade, and how much difference would it make?
macstruts
I don’t see the Angels blowing past the salary cap or giving up anyone of consequence for Price.
David Price is owed 32 million a year… right? So, what are the odds of Boston not taking a prospect and paying that down to half? Which is about what he’s worth.
I think the Angels will add a catcher and another pitcher. And maybe an RP.
HalosHeavenJJ
Getting Price out of Boston where he’s miserable and putting him in a division with actual MLB sized parks probably helps him.
Boston has to pay at least half of that contract, though.
californiaangels
I see them about 85 Wins as it stands now..
1) I think their offense is above average , a defiant top 10 in mlb. Trout Rendon Ohtani is scary good, then fill in Upton, Simba, Flether and if Lastella does what he did last year that’s another all star !
2)defense is ELITE
3) bullpen will be better by default , adding Bundy and Tehran who are steady innings eaters will take a ton of stress off them. the bullpen was lights out until june , they couldnt keep up coming in the 4th inning every single night . they were gased !!
4) their rotation is better then 2018.. by far!I know Bundy and tehran are maybe #4 or 5 guys, but last year we had 6 and 7s pitching night in and night out. also biggest add this year over rendon is Ohtabi, upside of a #1 . but coming off TJ you dont know what to expect . also Canning for a whole year (until his ucl is fully torn and has to go under the knife)
5) everyone points at their record , but fail to remember that we had no Trout, Upton, Ohtani, Pooholes in September, and simmons had a horrible ankle injury , and upton missed 4 months
so to me 85 seems do able, not great by any means. if things break their way, yes I wouldn’t be extremely surprised if they win 90.
maybe theres still another pitcher coming in Price, Boyd(hope not) , Gray, Ray, stroman etc..
J. C. Hahne
Point #3 is spot on. Their bullpen isn’t that bad. I actually like it. It was gassed though because of both Ausmus (putting Buttrey in for 3 innings) and the starters not getting deep. We also are adding a healthy Middleton into the setup roll.
They are much better than people think.
HalosHeavenJJ
And there are some intriguing bullpen arms in the system. That’s one area of the team that doesn’t get mentioned but was good.
Key, Buttrey, Robles is a good back end. Cam and Noe in earlier roles are decent. I’d like one more arm, but so would about every other team.
driftcat28 2
They’re not much better than they were last season, even with Rendon
Miguel Jr
Angels might break the .500 mark on W/L this upcoming season. BTW, this comes from Angel’s fan.
phillyballers
Signed a guy off a career year posting highs in 10+ categories. Always expect regression. Did not improve rotation enough for a playoff contender.
5toolMVP
Did you see the rotation last year?
Heaney, Skaggs, Cahill, Harvey, Pena, Canning.
Harvey was released.
Skaggs died July 1.
Cahill sucked, hit the IL, disappeared.
Pena did ok at times (ate innings + no hitter) but ended on IL.
Canning (rookie) he did ok but ended season on IL or innings limit.
No Ohtani.
Enter Suarez.
Enter Sandoval
Enter Dillon.
WHO?!?!
2020 tentatively looks like this…
Heaney
Ohtani
Bundy
Teheran
Canning
they gained one #2 in Ohtani, two #3-4 SP in Bundy/Teheran which replaces the total trash results they got from Cahill/Harvey/Suarez/Sandoval/etc.
There is still 2 months before spring training and guys like Price are out there on the trade market.
HalosHeavenJJ
Matt Harvey pitched the home opener.
I was there. He gave up 3 runs and at least one bomb before the Angels got to hit in front of their home crowd.
Cahill was the actual Opening Day starter in Oakland.
It sucked.
5toolMVP
Yeah, they both sucked. BAD! It was a nightmare start to a nightmare season – just with the pitching staff alone. They had about 4-6 starters/replacements combine for around -5 WAR. (Cahill, Harvey, Suarez, Peters, 1-2 others)
Dugdeeper
The way I see it. Healthy Upton’s bat and glove make them 5 games better. Ohtani’s bat and arm 10 games better. Bundy and Terahn 10 games better. An all around healthy offense and defensive team with Mike Trout 10-15 games better. That comes out to about 35-40 games better. I see The Angels as a 100 win team easily enough for one of the wild cards.
ericl
100 wins? You’re dreaming on that one. They aren’t winning anywhere close to 100 games with that rotation. Will the Angels be better than they have been? Yes, but they aren’t going from a 67 win team to an 100 win team. They haven’t done enough to fix there biggest issue of starting pitching. I’d rank the Yankees, Rays, Twins, Astros & Athletics ahead of them. The Indians have better pitching. The White Sox are improving & they play in a weaker division than the Angels do. The Blue Jays were only 4 games below the Angels last season & have done a far better job of improving their rotation than the Angels have. The Angels should be happy if they get to 81-81 & then build from there
jdgoat
Teheran and Bundy are gar from 5 WAR players
megaj
Contreras to Angels for Marsh, J. Soriano, and LaStella comes back to Chicago. Deal?
5toolMVP
I’d do it.
I should check Soriano’s numbers and projections.
I have doubts about LaStella repeating last seasons first half production, solid IF utility player though, I’d include him without hesitation.
OtisSnord
No deal. Marsh is worth more than that.
OtisSnord
PS” I respect 5tool’s opinion. He’s definitely smarter and more knowledgeable than me. But my amateur opinion is still that Marsh’s performance so far and his upside make him worth more.
Danbino
Honestly asking here. What exactly makes Adell a “super-prospect”?
His numbers are good but by no means eye popping. His OPS has fallen at each level and was pretty terrible in AAA last year (albeit in a small 27 game sample). In what was essentially half a season last year he hit 10 whole homeruns. That’s not exactly amazing considering he strikes out more than once a game and has his whole time in the minors.
So what am I missing? I get that he’s young. But it seems to me like they just slapped a “super-prospect” tag on him and everyone ran with it.
OntariGro
“Honestly asking here. What exactly makes Adell a “super-prospect”?”
Baseball America 2019 rank: #6
Baseball Prospectus 2019 rank: #2
Fangraphs 2019 rank: #3
From FG:
“One of the most explosive athletes in the minors, Adell has made a surprisingly quick ascent to the upper levels and will be an elite big leaguer so long as his bat-to-ball skills continue to develop.”
“His OPS has fallen at each level”
Direct comparison of stats across minor league levels like this doesn’t really illustrate much. Adell blew through rookie and A ball, with his numbers at each level signaling his readiness for the next level of competition.
His first hiccup at AA in 2018 (his 3rd level that year) was a poor performance, but viewing it in a vacuum ignores the purpose of the minors: presenting players with increasing levels of competition and evaluating/maximizing their ability to adjust to and rise to/above them, which Adell did in 2019, increasing his OPS from .753 to .943, while bumping his walk rate up 2% and cutting his K rate by 8.5%.
After ending 2019 with an inauspicious month in AAA. Adell is positioned similarly to his post-2018. With his tools, and having already shown an ability to adjust/improve (also, he’ll be 3-4 years younger than the average AAA player), there’s very little left for him to prove in the minors.
Again, from FG
“At that point, we’re talking prime Andrew McCutchen and Grady Sizemore-type tools.”
“But it seems to me like they just slapped a “super-prospect” tag on him and everyone ran with it.”
If by “they” you mean “the organizations most respected for their ‘super=prospect’ tag-slappin’ ability” you’re absolutely right. And everyone has run with it, including Adell.
OtisSnord
Actually, it’s just the opposite. He was widely doubted when the Angels drafted him. Nobody slapped a super prospect tag on him and ran with it.
Current summation from mlbpipeline:
“Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 65 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 65
Remember when there was concern about Adell’s ability to hit at the pro level coming out of the Kentucky high school ranks in 2017, even though he was the state’s Gatorade Player of the Year and led all prepsters with 25 home runs? Yeah, no one else does, either, not after Adell raked across two levels of Rookie ball during his summer debut then hit his way all the way to Double-A at age 19 in 2018, fitting in a Futures Game appearance for good measure. Hamstring and ankle injuries shelved him in Spring Training, and he was sidelined for an extended period of time.
While the swing-and-miss tendencies that concerned some scouts still remain with Adell, his bat speed and ability to read pitches and make adjustments more than outstrip the worry. He’s shown the ability to drive the ball to all fields and his over-the-fence pop started showing up consistently during his first full season. Yes, Adell can still refine his overall approach to see more pitches and draw more walks, but the strides he has quickly made in pitch recognition bode well for his future at the plate. Adell’s speed works on both sides of the ball, giving him the ability to steal some bases and enough range to play center field, especially as he improves his reads and routes.
Should he slow down a touch as he physically matures, Adell has shown the ability to play the outfield corners. A shoulder issue that kept him from playing the outfield in 2017 is a distant memory and the plus arm that allowed him to crank out plus fastballs from the mound in high school has returned. The five-tool outfielder is way ahead of schedule and could be patrolling the Angels outfield alongside Mike Trout sooner rather than later.”
MoRivera 1999
How does he get an overall rate of 65 when he only has one individual tool, run, rated at 65, and another tool, hit, is rated as low as 55?
5toolMVP
I’ve wondered that as well, and I’ve seen it on other players too. Strange.
OntariGro
Because the overall rating is not an average of the 5 tools. Having 5 above average tools, being above average in every aspect of the game, is in itself more valuable.
TheLawAbides
4 straight years of no more than 80 wins so they do need to prove something to everyone. For me I can’t see them less than 85 wins (I voted for 90-94). There was 10 teams last year that won 90+ games. But the Angels are desperately in need of pitching they give up way to many home runs and Bundy’s addition doesn’t help lower that number.
madjack117
I cant wait to watch the rebuilding M’s beat up on these fat bloated contracts over the next several years!!!
OtisSnord
The Westgate Sports Book will send a limo to McCarran Airport to pick you up if you’d like to place some money on that.
macstruts
DiPoto is the guy who traded Clevinger for Pestano. But then again, he also got the Mets to take Cano’s contract.
HaloShane
A strong 3rd place team as they stand today.
JoeBrady
Meh. Rendon might have the best swing in the majors. Tehren and Bundy are mediocre.
Assuming that one of those two pitchers replaces Skaggs, then they’ve added one mediocre SP. Love Rendon, but they also lost a decent player in Calhoun.
Maybe .500.
macstruts
The Angels were 5 games above 500 in late July. Skaggs and Calhoun helped get them there.
Since that date, The injured Upton batted 192. The injured Simmons 229 with a 621 OPS+. Trout was shutdown for 3 weeks. Ohtani was shut down for three weeks. All Star LaStella broke his leg. So those players will be added.
As well as Canning, Bundy, Tehran, Ohtani the pitcher, Rendon. Middleton. Pena, Bedrosian… Am I forgetting anyone? Oh, they’ll likely add a catcher and maybe someone else.
So you think by getting all those players back they are going to be worse?
JoeBrady
I usually go by their overall record, taking into account their Py W/L, which were both 72. Then I add or subtract guys that I think will have better/worse seasons, and add back for injured players.
Simmons +2, Rendon +3 (Fletcher was pretty good), Ohtani +1 (not sure he can pitch yet), Calhoun -1, Skaggs/Bundy -0-, Tehran +1, Canning +2, Adell +2.
I got +10 back of an envelope calculations. This isn’t like the WS, SD, and Cincy where 5-6 guys might take a step forward.
Vizionaire
washington lost 2 best hitters in 2 seasons. and san diego? lmao!
JoeBrady
WS stands for the White Sox, not Washington. And your lmao remark is meaningless unless you explain why you disagree. And it is unlikely you understand my point anyway.
Vizionaire
lyao! san diego? ha ha!
JoeBrady
Is lyao an abbreviation for something? Past that, I once again ask, do you have any idea what the concept is that you are referring to?
bballblk
Why does everyone keep putting Wheeler in the same tier of free agent pitchers as Cole and Strasburg? Julio Teheran had a lower ERA and better ERA+ than Wheeler did last year.
mecousinvinny
Wheeler is a head case — as a Mets fan I am glad he is gone to Phila — who overpaid — by no means is he in Cole or Strasburg class —
Vizionaire
astros’ roster is becoming too expensive. they will have to re-build soon. besides, take away their cheating, nobody knows how much they will regress. add whatever the penalty, i can see them go down to the bottom of the west again.
a’s will have to be reconfigured and that’s simply in their dna.
rangers are always also-ran.
mariners are never going to be decent as long as dipdip keeps trading.
angels, on the other hand, are climbing and will go all the way!
and the trolls? their mamas find out about them and lock them in basements without computers or smartphones!
prov356
So much conjecture. I’ve asked this question before and have yet to get an answer from those who continually bash the Angels: What do the Angels have to do for you to concede they are competitive?
No one can argue against their infield defense being in the top 3 in MLB. Ohtani will be back on the mound and I believe he can be the “ace” everyone is clamoring for. The argument is that he is “unproven” without considering his dominant career in Japan prior to coming here. One of the most potent line-ups in baseball that includes Trout, Rendon, Ohtani, Upton (not a fan), LaStella, Simmons, et al.
We still need pitching and a catcher. But I believe this team is more competitive today than the bashers will ever give them credit for. The Astros are also not as good as they were in 2019. We will see how the season unfolds. Anything else is speculative.
OntariGro
“The argument is that he is “unproven””
No the argument is that he had Tommy John surgery and will not have thrown a pitch professionally in nearly 2 years when Spring Training begins.
prov356
Maybe by you Ontario, but I have read plenty of comments that say Ohtani is unproven.
OntariGro
Great, and to your counter-argument pointing to his career in Japan as “proven”-ness, I’d say “Yusei Kikuchi.” Now, do you have a response for my argument?
prov356
Kikuchi and Ohtani are 2 different people. If your argument is that because Kikuchi tanked, so will Ohtani, that’s no argument.
OntariGro
No, my argument is that dominance in Japan has no correlation to success in the MLB, so using it in your argument does little to bolster it.
The argument I was asking for a response to is “he had Tommy John surgery and will not have thrown a pitch professionally in nearly 2 years when Spring Training begins” as being a more obvious and unresolved reason that anointing Ohtani the “ace” of the 2020 staff in December is premature at best.
prov356
You’re right. His arm could fall off in April rendering him useless. However, my comment was “I believe he can be the “ace” everyone is clamoring for” which is hardly an anointing. He has to perform as well as he did pre-TJ. Age and talent are on his side. Hopefully they coach him correctly and he can be the front line pitcher I think he can be. He has the talent. That’s my argument.
Koamalu
Are you seriously trying to compare a 28 year old finesse pitcher with a 25 year old power pitcher?
Ohtani in his first season in the majors dominated at 23 years old. And he dominated with a UCL that the team knew was torn. Now it’s fixed.
OntariGro
Nope. Simply saying that using NBP performance as an indicator of likely MLB performance is not a convincing argument.
FWIW I don’t think Ohtani is “unproven” at all. I watched every one of his starts in 2018 and he absolutely has the stuff to be an Ace’s ace. The dude other pitchers talk about in hushed tones. My concern is 100% with his health/ability to stay healthy, and while I’m optimistic, until we see him in action I have to put him on the 2020 edition of the always frustratingly long “Things That Have To Go Right (That Could Go Very Wrong) For The Angels” List.
prov356
I agree Onta. We need a period of durability from our pitching staff.
JoeBrady
What do the Angels have to do for you to concede they are competitive?
——————————————————————-
IMO, they need a lot more players.
Adding Rendon increases the team’s OPS by about 20 points, making them 6th in offense.
Here’s your roation:
Canning 4.37 FIP
Heaney 4.63
Sandoval? 4.59
Tehran 4.66
Bundy 4.73
I see a slightly above average offense, and a very mediocre rotation.
prov356
Joe – Thanks for a specific response. You’re forgetting Ohtani in that rotation list. I think their rotation can be above the mediocre level as is but can definitely use a front ender and someone to catch them. I think Ausmus mismanaged the pitching staff last year, plus injuries, Skaggs, yada yada yada.
If their offense is ranked 6th, that’s top 20% which is better than slightly above average. In my opinion, the combination of Maddon and his coaches at the helm, greater run support, starters going deeper into games and one of the best defenses in baseball, gives them the potential for post-season play in 2020.
It’s all debatable and dependent on a lot of things going right for any team.
JoeBrady
Joe – Thanks for a specific response. You’re forgetting Ohtani in that rotation list.
———————————————–
No problem. I’m a BB junkie, so I will discuss who has better beer,
IRT Ohtani, I didn’t forget him, but the injury makes him a big risk. Having said that, I might be underestimating his contributions this season.
But when I 6th, that was AL-only.
Not really a fan of Madden. He might do better with younger players, but I thought his ‘play every player at every position’ was a disaster for the Cubs.
OntariGro
“Sandoval? 4.59”
That’s a weird way to spell Ohtani.
Koamalu
Here is our rotation
Ohtani
Heaney
Teheran
Canning
Bundy
Sandoval/Barria/Suarez/
If you don’t understand why 6, then you don’t pay much attention to the Angels.
That is 6+ wins better than what we ran out there last season with Cahill, Harvey, Peters, Stratton, and others producing a combined FIP well over 6.00 in 2019.
We added innings eaters with a positive WAR and subtracted many, many negative WAR starters.
Dr_Doom14
That rotation won’t get it done. You guys can sit here and play analytics all you want, but that rotation isn’t going to compete against the big boys
ryanw-2
I think most fans still don’t understand that adding win value is the same on either side of the game. Whether it’s Rendon and a 5+ WAR, or Cole with a 5+ WAR, you’re still adding 5+ wins to your team.
What many fans are also failing to take into account is the amount of negative WAR that was already erased from the departures of Harvey, Cahiil, Allen, Cozart, Stratton, Bour, and Tropeano, There’s more on that list, but almost all of that negative WAR will not be on their opening day roster. By those players leaving, that negative WAR goes back to zero, which adds wins all by itself.
After that, replace them with new additions (Rendon, Teheran, Bundy, and possibly another SP and C), and what we get is the Angels adding a large number of wins, combining addition by subtraction with their new acquisitions.
Then their’s Upton. His normal season is 3-5 WAR. So if we get that, his negative WAR would be reversed from around -1 WAR. That’s actually 4-6 WAR upswing just from having a healthy Justin Upton.
This is a big reason why FanGraphs has the Angels projected as the 5th highest WAR in the AL as we speak. Coming into most seasons, FanGraphs has projected the Angels as either a Wild Card team or slightly under. Because if the Angels got health from their starting rotation, they would’ve been in a much better position over the last 4 years. That’s not to say they would’ve been a lock though.
Plus, I rarely panic about whether or not the Angels will be competitive, because in the 31 years I’ve been watching them, they’ve been one of the most consistently competitive organizations in the game. They actually have the most regular season wins among all of the expansion franchises, They also had the most playoff appearances among expansion franchises until the Astros surpassed them in 2017. That’s if anyone is interested in that discussion. Regardless, they’re still the Angels.
Since I also am a big believer in developing through your farm system, I haven’t had high expectations over most of this decade. Because I knew the moment they went away from what worked in the previous decade to going big on star players, I knew it would be a struggle later in the decade. And it was.
Even the Yankees and Red Sox went through a drought during this decade because they had to rebuild their farm systems. The Angels have had to do the same the over last 4 years, and have had made a significant improvement. So I haven’t really expected them to compete until 2021, possibly 2020 at the earliest.
Still, I think it’s ridiculous to bash the Angels. Every organization goes through their ups and downs. And they could easily jump back into contention this season. They’re just not quite there yet in terms of being a lock for postseason contention.
But this is still baseball.
And Ohtani proved a lot in his half season on the mound in 2018. Young pitchers don’t just get called up and dominate like he did. The question should be how he comes back from TJS. And since the procedure has advanced heavily over the past 10 years or so, there is every reason to believe Ohtani will bounce back.
prov356
Thanks for that commentary Krol. There are lots of intangibles in baseball. That’s part of what makes it great.
ryanw-2
No problem. But somehow “there” became “their” in the fourth paragraph. That never happens on my keyboard. lol
prov356
That’s why you got an A- instead of an A.
5toolMVP
@Ryan
Excellent points on the purge of negative WAR and the added positive WAR. I’ve mentioned this in a few posts myself. Now they just need to play.
Koamalu
You forgot Fletch.
We still need a catcher. A middle reliever would be nice, but not a necessity. There are no starters available in FA that would be a significant improvement.
prov356
I think Fletch will be a major component to our success.
Koamalu
Fletch and La Stella at 2B is so much better than what we had last season.
prov356
I’d like to see Fletch at 2b, LaStella at 1b, and Pujols and Ohtani sharing the DH role. We don’t need AP in the field anymore. Put AP at 1b only to give Fletch or Tommy a day off once in a while. Won’t happen, but it should based on production.
TheLawAbides
I hate everyone calling ohtani an ace. An ace pitcher doesn’t have a pitch count, an innings limit, and can take the ball on short rest in a must win.
Do you honestly believe the angels lineup is more ‘potent’ than that of Yankees, Astros, Twins, Dodgers , Red Sox? If most potent lineup means top 10, sure.
prov356
The Law – No one said Ohtani is an ace pitcher. He has the talent to be though and has performed as such prior to his injury. We will see how he does post injury. We can agree Gerrit Cole is an ace. If he got injured and had to be on a pitch count, would he suddenly no longer be considered an ace?
As for the Angels line-up, I would put them up against the line-up of any of the teams you mentioned.
TheLawAbides
Ohtani had a good month, but let’s look at the stats of every staff ace on only 6 days rest and compare to Ohtani, who by the way has only pitched 50 innings (5 Qs) . A lot of Japanese pitchers that come here blow out their arms, maybe because MLB and Japan use different size baseballs.
Those teams I named were the top 5 in runs scored last year and all except the Dodgers, who almost did(886), scored over 900 runs to the Angles 779 and 15th in runs scored. Sure Angels add Rendon but subtract Calhoun how many runs you really adding?
mecousinvinny
Angels need 3 starting pitchers and pen help — and I dont mean just any 3 starting pitchers — front line horses and there arent any so 72 wins — maybe
macstruts
Mr Vinny. I’d like for the Angels to add another BP arm, but why do they need bullpen help? Middleton, Bedrosian and Ramirez are back. They have Buttrey, Robles. They all miss bats, they all keep the ball in the park and they all K more than a hitter an inning. And their ERA + goes from 184, 141, 134, 114, 114.
prov356
Mac – I agree our BP is ok as is. My only concern is Bedrosian. He has shown flashes of solid pitching, but is too streaky.
mecousinvinny
Bullpens as you know are so important in todays game — you never have enough good arms — and with this stupid 3 batter rule now more than ever you need guys who can get LHH and RHH hitters out — Angels will prob pick up JA Happ from Yankees and maybe Chris Archer from Pirates — tho they are no longer horses its better than nothing when there isnt much out there
Koamalu
Congratulations. You win stupid post of the thread.
glassml
They still finish 4th
prov356
So glass, what do the Angels need to do to be competitive in your opinion?
macstruts
I don’t mind anyone picking the Angels to finish behind the Rangers. I mind the people who say they stink and they have no pitching.
If their 7th through 13th pitchers start 100 games… again… they are not going to be very good. If they can get 120+ starts from their 1st through 6th pitchers, I think they’ll be very competitive.
prov356
Yes. We’ve had to pitch our triple A staff.
Koamalu
And Cahill, Harvey, and others should have been in AAA.
dirkg
I think what it boils down to (for probably many of us) is that the Angels are missing that “anchor” of the pitching staff. Trout anchors the offense. Simmons the defense. Maddon now anchors the coaching staff. For years the Yankees had Mariano anchoring the pitchers just like the Brewers had Hader last year. It doesn’t have to be an “ace”, it has to be that guy the opposition forms a strategy for. Ohtani cant be that guy simply because hes a once a week pitcher + part time hitter. Hes a Swiss Army knife. I’m looking for Eppler to make a trade for a guy who might not be an anchor immediately on paper, but can become one (like a Jon Gray). I put this current Halo squad about 84 wins, it deserves much better…anchor that pitching squad and the Halos can get closer to 90. This Trout led team and fanbase need at least a WC run in 2020.
prov356
I agree dirk. However, if Ohtani is pitching one game a week, the rest of the rotation is too. I thought Heaney or Skaggs could have been that anchor you refer to. I think Heaney has the potential still if he stays healthy. Barria, Sandoval, Peters, and Canning are just getting started so who knows which way they will trend.
macstruts
It’s much easier to win with an anchor.
To be honest, I thought 2018 was about Heaney getting healthy and rebuilding arm strength. I thought he was going to explode last year. I always liked Skaggs, but he always seemed to be hurt in a variety of different. I was hopeful Skaggs could pitch 150 innings, but I was expecting Heaney to be that anchor.
dirkg
yep, I think a lot of us were Mac.
5toolMVP
Heaney is the staff veteran now, he needs to step up for sure.
ryanw-2
I think Heaney needs to re-evaluate his delivery. When I saw him pitch for the first time, I immediately had a bad feeling he would end up with arm surgery. Because he always looks like he’s about to bail out just as he’s about to release the ball. I also saw a photo of him that captured the moment he makes contact with the ground with his front foot. His throwing arm was almost straight back, parallel to the ground. That arm needs to be as close to upright, at or near a 90 degree angle as possible. And preferably before hitting the ground with his front foot. When I looked at footage of Julio Teheran after the Angels first signed him, I noticed his arm was upright and his front foot was still in the air, and then he stepped and threw. That’s a big reason he’s durable and mostly injury free. Jack Morris is a good reference for this. He was ready to throw before his front foot was even ready to land. I’ve just always thought that Heaney needs to refine that part of his delivery to be healthier and more durable.
Koamalu
He is already working on that this offseason. The most interesting thing is that Callaway has already met with and started working with most of his starting pitching staff. Not many new pitching coaches that have jumped into the fray even before they are collecting a paycheck.
dirkg
I’m with you eph. I get that hope. And that may come to fruition in the coming years. I think for 2020, however, they need that guy where the opposition says “oh [crap]” when hes in the game. And honestly, that may be a guy like Hader (if the starter trade well is dry). Adding Hader at the back end just eases that starting staff and gives guys like Middleton and Buttrey defined roles (kinda like 2002 Angel’s with Weber, Donnely, Frankie, and Percy). Eppler is a move away and I’m hoping he knows that.
prov356
dirk – like the 2002 BP or not, Scioscia was very regimented with their specific roles. It got the job done.
I think we can be there now with the right catcher and this rotation. A front end starter would tie things up better.
dirkg
I agree, I def prefer a starter. Obviously none of us are in that room and know what the asking prices are, but a Jon Gray, Robbie Ray type starter would be my first get (obv Clevinger would be #1 if ever in reach). But I truly believe one difference making pitcher can take this team into WC contention. If no starter, then I would pivot to the best reliever (Hader).
prov356
dirk – but you lose me when you assign a win number of 84 when we’re in December. That’s arbitrary.
dirkg
I only mention that because of the poll asking how many wins. Gun to my head, I’d say about 84. Either way, that’s prob not getting a WC berth.
Rivas21
With those 5 starting pitchers they will be lucky to win 80 games. I thought they would at least sign 1 of Ryu,Bumgarner or Keuchel. Teheran and Bundy are not goung to get it done. Teheran is going to get hit hard in the American league.
macstruts
With those 5 starting pitchers, they’ll win 90 games. The problem is not with those starting pitchers, the problem is with the 5 starting pitchers that follow those starting pitchers. That’s why the Angels added Bundy and Teheran. They got sick of sending out their 8th and 9th best starters.
They Angels need 120+ starts from their first six starters. I.M.O, If they get that many stars, which is a huge if, they’ll push 90 wins.
Philliesfan4life
If they could sign Alex Wood , and maybe trade for Chris Archer that would give them a boost.
Philliesfan4life
I think 86 wins with Maddon as their manager, Trout finally has protection in the line up, If they could somehow swing a trade for another starter and sign alex wood and jason castro, they could win more then 86 games
ripcookies
Don’t see them finishing with more than 85 wins. They needed pitching and didn’t get it. Rendon is nice, but when you have no starting pitching, it doesn’t matter how good the offense is. Plus trout is good to miss 40-50 games because he is a human bandaid
Al west standings
1. Athletics
2. Astros
3. Rangers
4. Angels
5. Mariners
OntariGro
Are band-aids known for being susceptible to injury/amazing at baseball?
ChiSoxCity
You say 85 wins, yet have them at 4th place. Fail.
Ohtani-san
Hmm let’s see here, the Rangers best power hitter is… Choo. Who is… *checks reference* 38 this year. You think Lindor is gonna get them past the Angels?? Ha!
TheLawAbides
According to anonymous source closer to the subject *yup mmhmm* your reference is turds. You’re forgetting Santana / Gallo and even Odor hits 30 home runs.
idowebster
Put Thaiss and Ward back to catcher (natural position) for AB’s; use stassi for defense in the late innings; Starters are fine with their bullpen; Boyd would be in upgrade with his walk to strikeout metrics and a good defense behind him will be a big difference; Trade Suarez for Boyd
OntariGro
“I’ve solved our problem at Catcher!”
“Really?! Are the Cubs willing to move Contreras on the cheap? Is there a secret much-younger 4th Molina?…it’s not Jeff Mathis, right?”
“None of the above. Best part? They’re already in the organization.”
“They?”
“You know those two guys who we drafted and were so bad at catching that we changed course with them, teaching them new positions because even in the minors their lack of skill behind the plate was glaringly unacceptable.”
“Ward and Thaiss, yes…”
“We have them both be Catchers again! Platoon them and put them in charge of calling games for our always ?-filled pitching staff!”
“…”
“We’d have Stassi for defense in the late innings.”
“…so the team would carry 3 catchers, one of whom can actually catch, and the other two with 0 track record of producing enough offensively at the ML level to justify the switch/roster space.”
“Bingo!”
“…Billy…”
KENNETH A LICHTIG
I wonder if Mike Trout regrets signing his new multi-year contract as Moreno is balking paying for pitching or these Free Agent Pitchers don’t want to play for the Angels because the taxes are very high living in California!!
lachness75
On july 31 angels were 56 and 54 and still had an outside chance at a wild card. The last 2 months after the skaggs death. (All Star La Stellas broken leg.) The pitching staff which was barely hanging on was taxed. Then trout missed the last 3 weeks. 2 ground ball, durable inning eater pitchers in the 3 and 4 sport will help tremendously. Othani will be back. and Rendon at third. The bull pen solid until they got to the point where the starters were going less than 5 innings. Playoff team?? maybe not But given there they were 2/3 of the way through the season I think they made drastic improvements..