Dec. 16: The Mets have formally announced the signing.
Dec. 12: The Mets have struck a deal with free agent righty Rick Porcello, according to Ken Rosenthal and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a one-year, $10MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
This is a long-rumored match that’ll put the New Jersey native back in familiar territory. It’s a bit surprising to see now, though, after the Mets reportedly agreed yesterday to ink Michael Wacha. Both of these buy-low hurlers would figure to command rotation jobs, leaving the Mets with six clear candidates for the five-man unit. Whether or not that could produce a trade remains to be seen, but now appears plausible on paper.
Porcello, who’ll turn 31 later this month, is far removed from his surprising Cy Young season. There have been some lean years in between, but he has always answered the bell. Porcello has taken the ball for at least 32 starts in each of the past four campaigns and has only once failed to top 170 MLB frames in a season (2010, when he threw 162 2/3).
Any pitcher is a theoretical health risk, but Porcello’s record of durability is second to none. The Mets can safely assume they’ll get innings from their new starter … but of what quality?
Outside of a few particularly good and bad seasons, Porcello has mostly hovered around the low-4 ERA range. Through more than two thousand innings in the majors, he carries a 4.36 ERA that lines up with his lifetime peripherals: 6.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 47.5% groundball rate. Fielding-independent pitching metrics largely concur with the results (4.09 FIP; 4.03 xFIP; 4.09 SIERA).
The Mets would be glad to see Porcello take the ball thirty-plus times and settle right around that four-earned-per-nine mark. But will he? Other teams reportedly offered three-year arrangements in an effort to woo Porcello, so there’s obviously some belief in the game that it’s plausible. But he’s also coming off of his ugliest season as a big leaguer.
In 2019, Porcello struggled to a 5.52 ERA in 174 1/3 innings. ERA estimators weren’t much more positive (4.76 FIP; 5.15 xFIP; 4.86 SIERA). He isn’t allowing an alarming rate of home runs per flyball (13.1%), but hitters have had greater success getting the ball in the air against him. He averaged a personal-worst 38.1% grounder rate and personal-high 41.5% flyball rate in 2019.
Perhaps it’s just a matter of a few well-conceived tweaks. Porcello has lost a bit of arm speed, though he’s still within range of his typical velocity levels. Opposing batters produced bigger-than-usual levels in hard-hit rate (37.2%) and launch angle (15.5 degrees), though neither figure was wildly out of line with Porcello’s prior history. Likewise, Porcello’s swinging-strike rate of 8.0% was on the low side for his recent track record but not a signal of a drastic shift in physical tools or efficacy.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Congrats rick,
I’d hoped he’d be back as a stable #5.
Now I hope price doesn’t get traded
Porcello is a Bulldog…. but his stuff is just not that great if he is struggling to locate…… Maybe a Syndergard trade to the Angels for Joe Adell + is the next move.
You’re delusional if you think the Mets are going to send Thor to the Angels for Jo Adell “plus”. The Angels don’t have the prospect capital to make such an acquisition.
If he is traded, it’s much more likely he’s dealt to a team with the ability to offer multiple top prospects such as the Padres, and Gore would almost certainly need to be part of the package.
Is 2 years of Thor worth worth 6 of Adell?
You are overvaluing Thor. (averages a little above 9 wins in 5 seasons)…. Met fans need to take their “fan glasses” off and realize he is a very inconsistent pitcher who has missed a lot of starts because of DL stints……..Adell is a Stud and the answer to the Mets CF problem. And when i say + I mean probably another top level prospect to be included.
Gore does not have to be part of that package and never would be
Though I generally think an Adell for Thor swap could gain some traction, using Ws for a pitcher is just a useless stat to value Thor. Further, declaring Adell “a stud” without major league experience does not remotely help support your point. Not saying it has no merit, but you picked possibly the worst available stats in support of your position.
I remember when the Detroit Tigers didn’t have the prospect capital to trade for David Price and then they went out and traded for David Price.
no
not even close
If he pitched exactly the way he did the past 5 seasons on a good team he would average more than 9 wins…so I hope you can see how irrelevant that stat is.
Wins? you are using wins to evaluate a pitcher? What is this, 1988? How about his 2.92fip or his 9.7k/9 or his 119 ERA+. Some things which he can control.
Why are we using wins as a measure of a pitcher’s value?
who wins the game? the team that strikes out the most people or gives up the least amount of runs?
Honk. Honk. You’re the clown if you don’t think Adell is enough for syndegaard 1 for 1. You’re talking a 65 FV, top 5 prospect in the game for 2 years of a pitcher who is good but not exactly coming off his greatest season
the pitcher who last pitched prior to the half-inning when the winning team took the lead for the last time Is ‘who wins games’ in the aforementioned sense
The fact that you think wins determines a pitcher’s ability or value is absolutely laughable. deGrom won the Cy Young back to back years despite winning 10 games in 2018 and what, 11 games this year?
Any pitcher on the Mets instantly sees their value go up by virtue of leaving the Mets. They are quite possibly the worst defensive team in baseball despite what a handful of arbitrary stats would like you to believe. The numbers don’t matter when you live in a team’s market and see firsthand that they play Little League baseball.
Gore in a trade for Thor is probably an overvaluation, but that’s what BVW would ask for because two years of Thor in that ballpark for a team that wants to be perceived as a contender is worth that kind of return and the Mets don’t HAVE to trade him. Thor’s numbers in Petco with the Machado, Tatis and Margot playing behind him would be significantly better than they are in the bandbox that is Citi Field with a terrible defense especially in the OF, and he would all but certainly put the Padres in the playoffs the next two years.
If Citi Field is a bandbox…what is Yankee Stadium? A telephone booth?
You are doing the same overvaluing a prospect
@AllRise I don’t think he’s delusional at all I could see the Mets doing that. He did say Adell + not just Adell and Thor isn’t deGrom and his numbers show that so he’s easily a guy the Mets could move for a future star like Adell. If I were the Mets I’d do it yesterday.
lol so does DeGrom
I’m a Met fan. Would LOVE to get Gore. Not going to happen for Syndergaard, unless Mets get creative and include Conforto and take back Myers in the deal and then SD better be sending some more.
But SD certainly has the prospect base to get it done without Gore.
Are you actually using wins as a measure for success? Last year Syndergaard had a 24.5 k% (14th in the NL), 6.1 bb% (13th in the NL), a hard hit rate of 29.1% (best in the NL), all while pitching 197.2 innings (6th in the NL). He’s a true stud and controllable through 2021. How do you consider him overvalued? If BVW were to make the mistake of trading him it best come with a top 10 prospect and yes a very big + to go along with it.
Agree as a Met’s fan but if the Mets think they are in a position now to trade Thor because they signed Rick and Wacka Mole then they are kidding themselves!
They have no depth in the rotation; nothing left in the minors.
One injury and their fourth place finish may go to the Marlins.
But then again Van Lunchwagon may trade Thor just to put his name in the news?
Congrats to ARFTJ on Cole.
u clown. sit down.
Saying that it’s the pitcher’s job to win games is like saying that it’s Mike Trpuy’s job to go 4-4 with 2 home runs to win games. Baseball relies on the pitcher to pitch good, but the offense to score runs.
His salary the last two years also won’t be cheap.
dugmet,
Your the clown you cheer for the mets… even Strawberry can’t save you. Hows that Stro show deal working out for you enjoy that circus!
Stop with this BVW reference. Instead refer to him as I S S-impulsive super salesman. He’s such a sucker for a story and Dumb deal that other GM’s have so much fun playing him.
Hey Jake at Star Farm. You are in no position to make any demands. Your team is in the hands of an over anxious, under qualified GM.
You will take whatever the other GM’s dangle and smiling salesman will give you the schmooze.
Having watched pretty much every Mets’ game the past few years, I can honestly say Syndergaard is VERY overvalued. He rarely pitches like “a stud” and seems to find a way to rarely be on the positive side when he exits. As soon as someone gets on base he blows up. Forget holding anyone on 1b, he wines about his catcher and generally underachieves as a #2. He is dangerously close to following Harvey’s career path toward “whatever happened to…”.
The Mets would take Adell in a heartbeat in exchange for 2 seasons of Syndergaard. Sorry, but that’s faaaar from a “delusional” scenario. That said, the Angels likely wouldn’t give up Adell+ for just Thor.
Sucks when you insult someone but you use the wrong “you’re”.
If Porcello is “worth” 10 million per season, what is Syndergaard’s “value” at his age? Being a Lifelong Mets’ fan, I agree that Syndergaard has, imho, greatly underachieved. The question though, is it due to his own failures, the coaching staff, or some combination of the two? Under Callaway, every pitcher not named deGrom took steps back. Yes, I know he was only the manager, but the facts remain the same.
Would I trade Syndergaard? If the return netted at least two true top 30 prospects and maybe one proven piece, absolutely. Include Nimmo and Dom Smith and that should net a very solid return.
Hello, is there anyone home between your ears?
I will give you that he’s a heart throb for teenage girls and their moms, however let’s face the facts:
“Thor” has 47 wins in 5 years.
Hardly Cy Young….
More like Greg Nettles said,
Say Zamora
Syndergard to Red Sox for Betts. Great move for both teams. Fulfills both of their needs.
wrongway2011,
Go spark up another one. No way would I do that deal if I was Boston….. I’ll take the 5 star one of the best 2 players in baseball all around . You can keep NOAH and his ark!
Mariner#16,
Glad you’re not Boston then. The trade would be one year of Betts for 2 years of Syndergard. After that they are both free agents.
I’d jump on that trade in a heartbeat, but I also know it would never be on the table.
Why not? Red Sox need a starter. Mets need a superstar CF. A big name. Beyond that, the trade could be expanded. The Mets and Red Sox needs line up really well.
Expand with Price and in return the Mets add McNeil. Never happening but one year of Betts is worth more than two years of Thor.
So you want the mets to take on $96m(?) AND give up a top 25 hitter? Good luck with that.
McNeil was a 5WAR player last year, good for 23rd in MLB for hitters. He had a 144 OPS+, which was ahead of JD Martinez (often cited as one of the best hitters in the league), Juan Soto, Anthony Rizzo, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, etc. Dude rakes and you want him as a throw in to take on Price’s $96m? Even Brodie isn’t that stupid.
Price needs to be traded.
The Angels probably do the trade if Bos pays like $12-15m per year remaining.
A little bummed to see this because I would have been fine with bringing him back for a year or two at $8-$10 M per. I thought he was gone because even coming off a terrible year somebody was going to give him more than that. We should’ve been in on him at this price. As bad as he was last year I doubt we have anything better even remotely close to ready for big league action.
Were the White Sox runner up?
I’d still like to see the White Sox work a trade for a Mets starter and OF. Mazzara is around now. Robert takes CF very soon. They have to pair Giolito with someone.
And please tell me, who can the CWS trade to the Mets, that would get them, a viable Mets starting pitcher and OFer?
Vaughn is the only trade chip they have, that they don’t plan to use on their big club. Their well, is dried up.
Hey remember me.The troll who didn’t understand stats. I believe you called him a league average pitcher. League average pitchers don’t sign one year deals for 10 million dollars.Pitchers who nobody really wants sign 1 year 10 million dollar deals.Maybe none of the front offices in the league understood what you understood.Maybe they never heard of fip or era+ and need you to explain it to them. Bottom line Porcello is not good and you were wrong
I hope the Red Sox move Price. They need to reshape the team for the long haul. They have too much money tied up in their rotation with arm injuries. If they can get a Kluber like deal I would be happy. With all this pitching coming off the table there is hope that a Price deal becomes a reality.
Thank God… Just glad my Jays didn’t sign him.
Blue Jays to vault ahead of the Red Sox this year into third place?
Maybe, brotha. Maybe. Probably not though. Who really knows, baseball is a crazy game. I doubt it though.
Work in progress. I’m shocked that he didn’t re-up. Who is going to be Boston’s rotation? Let’s see what the roster looks like in late March.
It’s a real possibility especially if the Sox actually sell off a couple of their big guys and the jays add 1 more half decent starter and a 7th/8th inning arm
bigdaddyt,
Lay off the booze with egg nog. NO way the Jays vault into third unless they avg 8 runs of offence a game. They have a lack of a starting rotatin and not much for a pen either. Sox are still loaded and will rebound.
Price, Sale, Perez, E-Rod, Eovaldi> Jays rotation.
Workman and Barnes> Giles and the rest of the Jays crap relievers.
(Giles would be my #1 but he’s probably getting dealt and the rest of the Jays pen is bad.)
Boston’s lineup> Toronto’s
This year isn’t the year. Maybe I’ll be surprised but I’d bet the RS finish ahead of the Jays. In 2021 I may have a different opinion.
Ummmm….no. Just no.
I think the Jays and Orioles are gonna fight it out for last place.
Orioles are a lock for last
The orioles are a lock for last. By design. The rotation at this point is Alex
cobb, John Means, Asher Wojo….., and ?, question mark
There’s really no way the Orioles do not finish last. Not necessarily important considering our team is mostly made up of placeholders but a fact nonetheless
Wow, thought this had Braves written all over it.
I haven’t seen them connected to him once. Braves don’t need a #5, they have one in the pen already. They need a #1 or #2.
Mets are angling to flip him at the deadline for Frazier and Andujar, no doubt.
You’re going to get Andujar and Frazier for this bum? you high bud
You sarcastically write BrAvEs wRiTtEn AlL oVeR iT on every post and can’t see that I am likewise mocking all the Yankees fans who think Frazier + Andujar are the best trade chips in the league? That’s a shame.
Relax. Probs just another racist boston fan
Boy, and I thought Yankees fans were the most delusional. Thank you for this laugh, I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt and assume this was sarcasm.
Why would I be delusional about the value of two overhyped Yankees or a 5th starter who the Mets are clearly banking on hope that he has an easier time in the NL? For someone with the word “thought” in their username you don’t seem to be exercising too much of it.
Sorry I didn’t put enough “thought” into the post that I explicitly said thought must be sarcasm. But, overvaluation of Yankees prospects aside, do you truly think any team would trade similar players for who you yourself call a 5th starter? I agree that Porcello is a 5th starter with bounce back potential, in my opinion, he won’t be the CY Porcello again, nor do I think he will be a mid rotation starter again. On the other side, Andujar is a year removed from a second place ROY, Frazier played horribly and managed .1 WAR in 2019. Most scouts seem to love Andujar’s bat, hence why teams are trying to buy low after his injury laden 2019. Now, we’re talking about Porcello as a MID season pick up, aka a 2-month rental, at roughly $4-5M to take the rest of his salary in exchange for 4+ years of control for Frazier AND Andujar?? There you go, you have my thoughts.
@just_a_thought there you go, that was the joke.
That’s why I said thanks for the laugh. See, we’re best friends
Cole
Severino
Paxton
Tanaka
Happ/German(after he gets back)
Montgomery
Loaisiga
King
Garcia
Nah, we’re good.
nah y’all definitely need Porcello. Think of all the innings he can eat when half those guys are on the DL or suspended for domestic violence!
you seem like that dude that hits his kid for striking out in little league.
lol, yup, you got me! posting sarcastic comments online is definitely the gateway to racism and beating children. Maybe you should take your own advice and chill out, bud. Somebody piss in your Dunkins this morning or what?
Everything about this interaction is what is wrong with the internet.
People are ridiculous lol. Can’t even make an obvious joke without getting called an idiot, racist, child abuser, etc. Some people around here clearly taking themselves way too seriously.
Grateful someone else sees how insufferable these Braves fans are with every available player. “We can trade folty and some other unknown player for Lindor!” Geez and I thought yankee fans were delusional
Then you’re clueless
Mets really going at it with low-risk high ceiling pitching signings.
Porcello doesn’t have much of a ceiling. He IS durable, though. He will eat innings and improve in the NL.
Just one more Cy Young award than greedy cole.
Which one has a chance to win one next year? Porcello’s ceiling passed long ago.
And an important contributor to a World Series winner.
Which one had a chance to win one the year Porcello won one? Great comment..
What if greedy cole has the bad year equivalent of Porcello’s good year? Whoopsie. The “fans” will turn him into slaw.
Butt hurt much?
Cole clearly banged this dudes mom.
Clearly he is.
Yeah Wacka Mole and Rick
The high ceiling is a crawl space
Mets fan
For a 4 or 5, Porcello is a solid option
DeGrom
Marz
Wacha
Porcello
Syndergaard
Stroman
This signing doesnt make sense
Incoming Thor trade
Exactly .
That’d be unbelievably dumb
Thor and Rosario for Correa and a younger pitcher. I could see that happening.
“Young pitcher” is not what the Mets need if they intend to compete next year, which is what they’re signaling with these FA signings. The Mets need someone to eat Cano’s contract in exchange for a box of donuts or something so that McNeil can line up at 2B every day, and they need an impact bat preferably up the middle or in the OF, while also needing a defense-first CF.
Thor and Rosario for Correa makes no sense.
Thor and Rosario for Correa is a massive overpay unless other MLB ready talent is coming back.
Massive overpays are right in the Mets wheelhouse, though. I mean this is the team that traded for broken down Robbie Cano, and then had a presser to celebrate it.
Matz is most likely to be traded for a young catcher.
Yes it does in a sense, either Wacha or Porcello is going into the bullpen. Its a low risk move but i do pray that they are a help in some way.
Porcello wouldn’t have signed with the Mets unless he was told he’s in the rotation.
Porcello did not sign to pitch in their bullpen. Can see wacha because he pitched in the bullpen for the Cardinals for a bit. But unless hes not as healthy, it would seem better to sign as a starter with a team
Since his health issues, durability has been an issue for Wacha. His effectiveness often dropped off dramatically after 5 innings. He may be better suited for long relief but I’m not sure he’d be happy in that role. He is only 28 and has always been a starter.
Matz is going to the bullpen. More durable out of the pen.
Matz will be traded.
I don’t think either will go to the pen. Mets are almost certainly flipping a starter, and I see Matz being that piece. Matz combined with an OF can bring home a significant bullpen arm, or perhaps even q young catcher.
One of them goes to the bullpen, clearly.
I think they view Wacha as a reliever / starting pitching depth if one of the front 4 goes down. Their starting pitching depth was atrocious last season, and they’re lucky that none of their frontline starters had extended IL stints.
Wacha is the longman
Yea because year after year teams use exactly 5 starters for 162 games???? Of course not. The Mets are trying a competitive advantage of stashing starters. There is a high likelihood that 1 out of the 6 will be hurt come opening day and worse case you can move Wacha to the bullpen.
Wacha = bullpen?
look at last year, the Mets had to start Lockett and Flexen many times. You need starting pitching depth. The Mets have no one in the minors who is a good candidate to come up and start a few games if someone is injured. Meanwhile Wacha can pitch in the bullpen
Does when you know they have nobody including minors to back that up.
If they do trade one and get one injury you get W. Lockett who is worse than Matt Havey
Great move by the Mets. More Cy Youngs than greedy cole.
That ERA difference though….ooof.
the mental gymnastics are at work
Cole has had more great seasons, though. Deal with it, butt hurt Angels fan.
When he’s on he’s great. Tough time getting through the first inning. But solid 4-5 and will save the pen some innings.
Porcello is a Bulldog…. but his stuff is just not that great if he is struggling to locate…… Maybe a Syndergard trade to the Angels for Joe Adell + is the next move.
I was thinking a trade might be in the works from NYM. Makes sense. DeGrom should be the one they move, but they won’t.
Why? He’s one of the top handful of pitchers in baseball and signed to a team friendly deal. Trading him makes no sense.
Bigger park and reverting back to a normal ball should help.
I just don’t see the Angels trading Adell. He is Eppler’s love child, has a clear path to be the starting RF in the near future, and maybe most importantly, he is CHEAP.
What about a trade revolving around Simmons, Marsh, and a young arm like Suarez or Sandoval?
And be down to Walker Lockett and his 8 and change ERA!?
Wacha failed his medicals and the Mets pivoted?
Wacha as a swing man.
I’m wondering if Thor is going to be traded now. To the Astros for Correa?? Angels in a deal for Adell? To the Dodgers for who knows what? Twins have what it takes as well.
This was done because Mets are currently looking into a trade for Syndergaard. Bryant for Thor and Nimmo, or a prospect like Gimenez would benefit both clubs. Cubs are desperate for starting pitching. Trading Bryant or Contreras was the only way they were going to get it. Epstein is just waiting on the ruling concerning Bryant’s grievance. Once that happens, Bryant will be traded within 48hrs.
Might be a fit but the Cubs would want more than Thor for Bryant.
BVW said Syndergaard is not getting traded, so I doubt this signing has any connection to a Thor trade. Maybe Matz is the one being packaged into a trade.
The Mets also don’t need a 3B with McNeil and Davis in the roster
Sorry to repeat myself but 6 starters is all the Mets have in the entire organization unless you count Walker Lockett and his +8 ERA.
What do you do if there is an injury?
“This was done because Mets are currently looking into a trade for Syndergaard.”
Not only is there nothing to back up this idea, the Mets GM has explicitly said that he’s not going to do this. It’s crazy how dumb some of the commenters here are.
Syndergaard is not going anywhere. Signing Rick Porcello purely as a potential #5 or bullpen project is not going to change that fact.
I wonder how Wacha feels, 12 hours after signing…
Smells like a Thor trade is coming. Houston or either LA team could pull it off.
If any starter gets flipped, it’s likely Stroman. I believe Porcello or Wacha would need to be asked for their permission to be traded since they just signed. Think the deadline where they can be moved w/o permission is sometime in June.
Stroman isnt getting anything good.
Either Wacha Or Matz long relief even Porcello could be a long reliever! Not to sure what it means but pitching depth is key , I don’t think they will trade Thor unless something really big happens
Wacha GOOD Porcello BAD
Run a 6 man for the first month and wait for an injury… no trade needed
I don’t understand why everyone automatically assumes that the Mets signing Wacha and Porcello equals a Syndergaard trade. That would make zero sense for a Mets team that by all indications plans to at least attempt to contend in 2020.
A rotation of deGrom-Syndergaard-Stroman-Matz-Porcello is decidedly better than a rotation of deGrom-Stroman-Matz-Porcello-Wacha, and Wacha as the long man/spot starter gives the Mets options and the ability to give each of the front three an extra day off during long stretches without a built-in off day.
It’s more likely BVW goes into 2020 with both deGrom and Thor and if they’re out of it in July, that’s when he calls up contenders and asks for their best offers. The Mets are not making these moves to finish a dozen games above the Marlins and still be in fourth place.
Because people LOOOOOVE trades
Maybe they’ll move Matz, even though Matz is arguably very slightly better than Porcello
“I don’t understand why everyone automatically assumes that the Mets signing Wacha and Porcello equals a Syndergaard trade”
It’s because they’re idiots. Porcello is a one year, low risk deal on a pitcher that will be lucky to be the fifth starter and will contribute only as an innings eater. How some people think that it’s an indicator that the Mets will sell low on their young #2 starter is beyond me. It’s incomprehensibly stupid.
ARFTJ and rct , these guys makes sense!
Mets fan
How do you trade anybody with 6 starters when half have injury histories and you have no one in the organization left with an ERA below 8!
I’m thinking Wacha is pen bait
He’s the Walker Lockett and Corey Oswalt shield.
2 guys will have to be released to make room on the 40 man. Could easily be those 2
Not following the Mets closely I had tolook those 2 up. Wooooof. Awful. They could certainly be gone.
Oswalt is one of those great AAA starters who can’t throw anything when they get called up to the majors. He’s horrible
Sox fan here…. thanks for helping us win. But I wont miss the nightmare starts. Mets go 2 starters for $13 mil a seaon when they jays signed 1 no namer for $12 a year lol
If Wacha only makes 3M then he it none of his performance bonuses and in that case 3M looks bad. There was also more competition for Roark vs Wacha or Porcello. Jays also need to spend a little more with them rebuilding.
You are overvaluing Thor. (averages a little above 9 wins in 5 seasons)…. Met fans need to take their “fan glasses” off and realize he is a very inconsistent pitcher who has missed a lot of starts because of DL stints……..Adell is a Stud and the answer to the Mets CF problem. And when i say + I mean probably another top level prospect to be included.
Syndergaard had an ace level season in 2016, was very solid in 2018 despite an uptick in some of his peripherals, and his numbers last season were mostly fine despite him getting hurt by his defense and (probably) the juiced ball. Yes, he has his injury issues, but I think you’re greatly undervaluing him (especially if pitching wins are what you’re judging him by)
Your smoking gun on why Syndergaard is overvalued is because of his win total? How 20th century of your baseball thinking, sir
What good is an inning eater if he SUCKS!!!! 5.58 era led majors in homers allowed whip 1.4 plus and all he was paid was 21.5 million and teams are lining up to sign him SMH
WE all know this year although MLB won’t admit it the balls were juiced you will see Homeruns go down from players no one was expecting to crack 20+ HR’s and 30+ HR’s which will lead to fewer runs scored and ERA’s will go down.
Also, Citi Field is much more pitcher friendly than Fenway Park is.
His FIP last year was a 4.76
Do you know what league average era was last year for an AL pitcher? Also 4.76
Biggest problem with this signing isn’t porcello’s potential, beyond it he is in line for one of his “better” seasons to continue his pattern of strong/weak years.
No, it’s the defense behind him with the mets that bodes poorly for results.
Rick will be facing a pitcher in the batting order rather than a DH so his numbers should improve, just for that fact alone.
They will, he’ll also have a putrid defense behind and a worse offense.
By what standard is the Mets offense bad? They aren’t elite or anything, but they were solidly middle of the pack in the NL last season and they aren’t losing any major contributors this offseason.
He didn’t say “bad” offense, he said it was “worse” compared to what he was used to.
The Boston offense hands down was better than. The mets, meaning the mets did indeed have a worse offense to put behind him.
As far as the putrid defense, well, hopefully NYM are still going to upgrade significantly in that department.
I wouldn’t say putrid, but, it’s pretty rough.
@AtlSoxFan – You’re correct, I misread the comment. That’s my bad.
It is not a bad signing for the Mets they add depth to their starting Rotation as they can’t count on Matz & Thor because of their past injury history , Porcello will chew up a lot of innings and going to the N.L. should benefit him and he won’t be facing the powerhouse offenses of Boston,Yankees,Astros just to name a few.
I would have thought they would have looked into J.Bradley & D.Price combo somehow, but Porcello will provide innings and again moving over to N.L. should benefit him and provide the depth every team needs for their starting rotation.
Hmm… could they try to turn Wacha into a multi-inning/high leverage reliever?
I think that’s likely and that they’re not done with the pen yet. I like the idea I discussed with others here on MLBTR last night of Lowrie and cash back to the A’s for Soria. Their ages and salaries are comparable so the Mets would probably pay the difference.
Nice move by the Mets for only 10 mil.
$1oM for a 1 WAR player with a 5.52 ERA? How is that smart?
I expect the Mets to flip Matz perhaps with some of the extra OFs for some help. Likely a bullpen arm and a young catcher.
Not that I wanted Porcello, but as more and more Free Agent pitchers come off the board I am struck by the fact that the White Sox have done nothing yet. I hope the plan is Keuchel, and not someone like Nova or Shields – simple ‘innings eaters’ like we’ve had over the past few years.
Keuchel probably thinks he’s worth 250m this offseason.
This is the greatest news in the history of the Mets. Makes me feel good again as when Tom Seaver joined the mighty Metropolitans.
Mets are not trading a starting pitcher. Wacha becomes the longman, simple as that.
It’s awesome that we have evolved into buying low being 10 million a year. 10 mil for 1.1 WAR, at that rate Gerrit Cole should have received 61.8 mil per year.
But… but… but… why aren’t they doing EXACTLY what I, as a bandwagon fan, want them to do?!? I’ve left at least 2 or 3 comments in these threads with my demands! Simple things like signing Cole, Rendon, and Strasburg… nothing too crazy.
Dodgers need to get a package with Thor, Lowrie and Familia for a solid prospect plus a few lower guys…the Mets get their payroll relief plus a solid prospect and the dodgers get that extra playoff starter, some bullpen help and a versatile infielder
Sad part for the Jays is they were supposed to being aggressive but so far they seem to be getting table scraps instead of going for the big league pitchers
He will be on the DFA scrap heap by June.
HAHAHAHAHAH. What a terrible FO. LMAO
Porcello is a bounce back candidate plus leaving the AL East might be good for his health. Wacha and Porcello signings were both smart.
They’ve been saying that for the last 3. years. How is paying like $15M+ for 2 pitchers that combined for 1.3 WAR last year??
Since you want to use “WAR” as your silly barometer for a stat only non-baseball people use….
Porcello was a 3.1 WAR in 2018. In his entire career he has been durable. Pitching in the NL East at Citi Field should knock off at least 1 run off his ERA and a few less HRs. Especially now that Rendon has left the division.
Wacha was effective when healthy in 2018. Pitched ok in 2017. Your “WAR” aside, Wacha being a 4 or 5 while pitching in that park is fine.
Because you don’t watch baseball, you should know the AL East is the hardest place to pitch. Expecting Porcello to turn things around is not out of the question. And, it’s actually $13 guaranteed as Wacha signed for guaranteed $13-mil. By your math, if they combine over $15-mil, that means Wacha pitches above expectations.
Wonder if Matz is going to be a part of a trade?
Matz, Familia and Allan for Giles, Fisher and Grichuk
Doubt it, as Wacha will likely be a swingman for the Mets.
One of, if not THE, worst Cy Young winners ever. East Coast Bias at its best.
He never deserved the Cy Young that year anyways, should have went to Verlander or Kluber. He only won it cuz he pitched for “Boston”
Or voters who think that wins determine how good a pitcher is
The next Steve Trachsel.
If Porcello pitches like Mets version Trachsel they’d be happy.
Thor to the Angels or Houston is my guess.
Every team in baseball should have been in on him at that number. The guy is a horse just three years removed from a dominant CY Young campaign. If he can improve his peripherals by even 10% or so, which he should being a fly-ball pitcher pitching in that park, while providing his usual 180-200 innings; this will turn out to be a steal for the Mets. Im sure being from North Jersey appealed to him about pitching in NY. Between this signing and the Wacha deal, the Mets have made a pair of nice bargain additions to round out one of the NL’s strongest rotations.
I thought Porcello was a ground ball pitcher? Also, he had 2 good seasons and 9 bad ones. Honestly, shouldnt have won the Cy Young the year that he did. He aint that good
Not a bad signing as they needed another starting pitcher even with the signing of Wacha to build up depth which was not going to come from the minors. They need more relief pitching.
They paid $13-$19M for 2 below average 5th starters…yuck
A trade has to be in the works somewhere. The Mets need to free up two spots on the 40 man and they are bumping up against the luxury tax. Interesting to see what they have in mind. This does give them good depth in the rotation which has been a problem in past seasons.
No Lockett and Oswalt can go
Damn….. 10 mil for a pitcher with an era around 5.5?? Crazy. Maybe their hoping for a comeback to the mid 4s?
$10M for a 1 war pitcher?? Why are teams still paying for his Cy Young Year? He hasn’t been any good since then
His Cy Young year commands him $25-mil plus, especially after Wheeler’s contract. $10-mil is not over $25-mil.
This is a situation where WAR doesn’t completely capture a guys worth.
Imagine a hypothetical pitcher. Makes all his starts. Every single game he goes out and goes 7 innings and gives up 4 earned runs. That’s a 5.15 ERA- terrible.
But, the guy has real value. Every game he his team has a decent chance to win- not great, and you wouldn’t say that he’s the reason they won the game.
But he preserves the bullpen, and doesn’t force the team to scramble to find someone to start when he’s hurt. A lot of teams would be thrilled to plug a guy like that into their rotation. They’ll lose a lot of games he starts, but he helps them on the days he isn’t.
Obviously, this is an extreme example, but it shows what durability and dependability are worth.
Add in the fact that he has had one really good season, and a couple of others where he’s been more than an inning eater, and he’s a solid add. I like the one year contract (if it’s true that he could have gotten more years elsewhere) in that it tells me he believes he can improve his own value.
Very interesting point, jake, and definitely one worth making. It emphasizes where Porcello may have value, but to get there it also exaggerates it. Still, the butt end of the Mets pen is so poor that what the team gives up to get Porcello’s 5=1/2 innings per start, namely his dubious ERA, is better tolerated by the Mets as constructed than on a team with, say, an average bullpen.
The real problem with Porcello is that he’s now a *bad,* pitcher only durable in the sense that he takes the mound every 5th game, but doesn’t average even close to 6 innings a game, so you’re getting that 5.52 ERA in less than five and a half innings–in sum I think he’s just too far from your interesting hypothetical pitcher to be worth signing.
Worse, the Mets went cheap again, and got the worst qualifying starter by ERA and whatever Wacha’s going to be for somewhere between 13m and 20m when Cole Hamels got 1/18m, and when someone like Craig Morton got 2/30m last offseason. They’re roughly a .500 team that went out and got bad bulk when what they needed was more frontline talent.
Btw, in closing, it’s also worth noting that most contenders do better in the #5 spot than your 5.25 ERA. Off the top of my head, in 2018 for example, the Dodgers gave just 3 starts to guys with below league average ERAs. The Astros had one such start. From their #5 slot contenders routinely do a run better than your hypothetical.
The only way Syndergaard gets traded if they put Cano with him, NOW who wants Syndergaard lol.
I think Stroman or Matz goes would love to send Matz and Nido to the Cubs for Wilson Contreras
Im so glad you all arent lying and saying hes this amazing pitcher, he’ll get his 12 wins and an overpay next season by the angels or dodgers who will miss ANOTHER playoff round and who will be desperate, just glad you looked at his numbers and not the fake cy young year, i watched him pitch the last 5 seasons here in boston, hes the most below average to slightly good pitcher alive, hes also home run prone, glad hes outta the division and off my team. Next should be price.
I actually love this move for the Mets. Porcello doesn’t have the best stuff but no one is calling him an ace either so for a #4 or #5 a guy that will give you 200 innings on average with a mid four ERA the move is solid.
so one of Matz or Thor is gone then right? cant fit both Wacha and Porcello in with 4 starters already.
Exactly what Mets need. I’ll sign right now for 30+ starts, 180+ innings, and a 4.50 ERA. They’ll lose more than they win on days he starts (which is the case of most 5 starters), but he won’t get the bullpen chewed up.
I’m hoping they aren’t planning on moving anyone- go with all 6 to spring training and let it work itself out. I view it as you should expect to need 30-35 starts out of someone who is not in your original top 5 every season.
D.Smith,Matz and Familia to Detroit for Boyd and a RP
Stroman to LAD for Ruiz
Lowrie to A’s for Soria.
This cuts some $$ off the Mets payroll and still gives a rotation of deGrom,Syn,Boyd,Porcello and Wacha
Why would Detroit do that? Taking on salary and adding lesser players with service time that is similar to Boyd’s. Plus, reasonably or otherwise they think they are getting a huge prospect return for Boyd. Pull Familia out of the deal, it’s a reasonable offer that I predict Detroit will not take.
Why would the Dodgers do that? The Mets were able to acquire a year and a half of Stroman for prospects not nearly highly thought of as Ruiz (I’m assuming you mean the catching prospect). Do they even really need Stroman?
Soria for Lowrie isn’t bad. I’d probably want some salary relief if I’m the A’s since Lowrie is more underwater than Soria, but close enough to be fair.
I feel like Porcello’s been one of those guys who’s had the benefit of the doubt and therefore overrated because of the highly offensive teams he played with at the time; Tigers back in the day, Red Sox, and now the Mets.. He was once paid 22 mil yearly i think with the sox and that was a ludicrous contract. He’s been up and down, but he’s rarely pitched with a sub offensive team and therefore 10 mil is still too much for me. My point is he looks decent because he gets a lot of offensive support but in reality he’s not that great nor does he deserve a 10-20 mil contract, at least for now.
illusion aka dillusionalist!
Sub par offensive team lol okay sure sox cant score ya right buddy !
Name the Mets 6th starter before this signing.
You can’t? So yeah, it makes plenty of sense.
I guess Wacha will be a swingman or something. We’ll see how it works out, but at that price I wouldn’t mind it at all.
Im sure there is a ton of negativity about this signing. I don’t know why..
Porcello is an automatic 27+ starts..170-190 innings pitched.
If his ERA lands between 3.50-4.99..sign me up. This along with the Wacha signing gives the Mets the best rotation 1-7 in all of MLB. I would put deGrom and Thor over any other 1-2 punch in the league…
Stroman replaces Wheeler as the #3 with Ace capability…Matz is #4 with Wacha and Porcello vying for #5.
Porcello prob has the inside track..putting Wacha in the pen…which is a plus move as well…
Familia can have a regular year (3.50 era in 60 ip)
Diaz bounces back…
Lugo..Wilson..Gsellman…
The talent is there…
Now…go nuts and pull off…..
Rosario,Smith,Gimenez,Peterson and Sanchez for Carlos Correa and a couple mid level prospects….or trade Nimmo,Smith,Gimenez,Gsellman and Peterson
For Marte,Kela and a prospect…or
Rosario,Nimmo,Gsellman,Sanchez and Vientos for Lindor and a prospect…
Or JD Davis,Rosario,Nimmo,Peterson and Sanchez for Arrenado and a bullpen arm
met fan in denial. thanks for the laughs
Denial about what?…i was throwing bold moves out there…i know damn well none are happening…i always try and be an optimist…nothing wrong with that…
Its all good though…once Cohen’s money is available to use…we will finally be spending like a new york team should
crazy talk.
Porcello had one grest yearand has otherwise been mediocre at best. with the Wacha signing they already had a full rotation.
There is no such thing as having too many starting pitchers…the mets were super lucky last year when it came to the health of the starting rotation. You cant say for sure that will happen again..
Signing
Porcello and Wacha provides the Mets with good depth for the rotation.
As long as no starts are made by Walter Lockett or a player like that…i will be happy
Wacha did not sign to pitch out of the bullpen. They told him and Porcello that they have a spot on the rotation.
Correct. And with an incentive laden contract based on various numbers of starts, you can bet the MLBPA would be all over the Mets if he wasn’t given ample chances to start. I’d say Matz is likely the number one candidate for the pen.
Wrong way,
Multiple handles ? Learn how to spell bud, actually you goof Betts is a FA after this year homework before you spew off about this. Sox are/will keep Betts. They need him!
Porcello is either horrible will occasionally spin a gem. Expecting a rookie pitching coach and rookie manager to get Porcello “straightened out” is pretty far fetched. Just because he took the mound 33 times doesn’t make him good. Tapani and Pelfrey took the ball a lot, too.
I would think signing both Wacha and Porcello is a precursor to a pretty big deal brewing involving Smith, Nimmo and either Syndergaard or Matz.
Still think this is a solid signing for the Mets.
hilarious
What terrible news for Mets fans
awww someone let you out of your cage?
Why use sabermetrics to determine the worth of a pitcher? It’s basic comparisons! Thor can’t stay healthy, so therefore, it’s easy to have low metrics when you rarely go past 5 innings and you start half the games you’re scheduled! If Thor was that dependable, moves like this and the Strowman trade wouldn’t be as crucial for them! Mets fans think that Thor and DeGrom will be aces until they’re in their 40’s! Should’ve traded them long ago and at least get some prospects out of them to rebuild your joke of a team! It doesn’t matter if a pitcher has a sub 1 era if your offense doesn’t score, you still lose 1-0! Terrible offense to back up awesome pitching is just a waste of talent!
What? Syndergaard’s the same 6 inning pitcher he’s always been. He faces fewer than 2 batters less than deGrom does, per game, 6.1 innings versus 6.4. Even the guy who just won his 2nd consecutive Cy hasn’t averaged 6-1/2 innings per start over his career, and he beat Syndergaard in 2019 by all of 7 innings across 32 starts each.
At that price it is a good signing for the Mets. He may get better performance being in the NL and more of a pitcher’s park.
Ah Porcello. Enjoy home run derby in Citi Field for the foreseeable future Mets fans. Porcello doesn’t throw bombs that squeak into a bullpen.
He lobs in bombs. Third deck and beyond. If you have nosebleed bleacher seats, my advice is to wear an army helmet. That way, you stand a chance
The NL is perfect for him because he’s not a bad hitter. I think his lifetime batting average is better than every catcher on the 2019 Tigers.
Pretty big downgrade from Wheeler lol
So “the Mets are nowhere near done’ after spending the anticipated Cespedes money that could have gone to Wheeler (or Cole Hamels) on #6 starters and a 5th OFer? Oh, joy.
I can’t wait to see what they’ll do with the $5m they can still squeeze out of this–a utility IFer who can solidify the fight for 84 wins?