The Miami Marlins haven’t had a lot to feel good about in recent seasons, but the rebuild is beginning to bear fruit. The Marlins rotation has been a talking point since around the All-Star break of 2019, and though they’re not yet a fearsome unit, they’re worth keeping an eye on. They finished the year 16th in the majors by ERA, 20th by FIP, 14th in HR/9, and 22nd by fWAR. They didn’t generate a lot of groundballs, but that’s playing to strength given their ballpark. The biggest area of improvement looking ahead to next season will be control, as they finished second-to-last with 3.50 BB/9. Still, given where the franchise has been in recent seasons, any unit climbing from the cellar is noteworthy.
That said, the first wave of talent often becomes the last wave of prospect-gathering trade bait. At least for the time being, however, the Marlins aren’t overeager to move their starting pitching. Still, that doesn’t stop teams from asking, particularly about Caleb Smith, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. Smith, 28, is the veteran at the front of their young group, and his trade value remains high due to having just over two years of service time. He struggled with the long ball in 2019, but it was an overall successful campaign: 10-11, 28 starts, 4.52 ERA/5.11 FIP, 153 1/3 innings. Smith definitely made strides in securing his spot as a major leaguer, though it would not be surprising were the Marlins to pivot and decide to move him.
Regardless, President of Baseball Ops Michael Hill suggested the Marlins are secure in their starting options heading into 2020, and they’re unlikely to make a major acquisition in that regard, per Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. The current group includes Smith, 2019 All-Star Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Jordan Yamamoto, Jose Urena, Elieser Hernandez, and Robert Dugger. Alcantara and Smith are probably the only two with their rotation spots guaranteed. The rest of the group should have no trouble conjuring a sense of urgency, as top prospect Sixto Sanchez finished the year in Double-A, as did Edward Cabrera, perhaps their most promising arm after Sanchez.
The Marlins felt secure enough in this group (and the intriguing group of prospects coming behind them) that they dealt Zac Gallen to the Diamondbacks for young shortstop Jazz Chisholm. The position player side of the ball should soon see an influx of intriguing young talent get their chance in the big leagues. Along with Chisholm, the Marlins added JJ Bleday with the 4th overall pick in the draft and acquired another top prospect in Jesus Sanchez from the Rays. Chishold and Sanchez are likely to reach the majors in 2020, along with centefielder Monte Harrison. Chisholm, Sanzhez, and Harrison are the Marlins #3, 4 and 5 ranked prospect by MLB.com. On both sides of the ball, patience will carry the day for now in Miami. Given the gusto with which their division mates have approached the offseason, Miami is all but assured to finish 2020 in the NL East cellar for the third consecutive season.
Many people dogged on Jeter however his process longer than others…why? So they can last long vs just a win now. patience gets what you want
I think we were all stunned they traded Gallen. Should have traded Smith for Chizzholm. But I think the wise move is to trade Smith if teams are willing to give up a top 100 prospect. By the time the marlins are ready to compete Smith will be 30. And who knows, he could decline now. Plus he has a hard time getting deep into ball games.
I’d like to see Smith get traded if they can sign a reliable dude like Roark, or some high upside guy like Taijuan or A.Sanchez.
Yeah I really liked Gallen, wish Miami didn’t trade him
No way man. That would have been an awful trade. Smith has far greater peripherals, analytics and stuff than Gallen. Gallen has outperformed all his measures so there’s a sense he may come back down to earth and even struggle. With that said, i like Gallen too and he wouldn’t be the first player to be better than everyone thought even in the analytical time period we leave in. We had pitching depth and sending someone not really proven is better than sending someone like Smith who other teams would send a kings ransom for due to the fact they seem him as #2/3 type potential in a playoff rotation. 28 is not old nor is 30, and it would be nice to have a veteran help the young guys. Im sure he’ll be a trade candidate in 2-3 years though when the rest of the young guys are ready.
The reason why they traded Gallen instead of Caleb was not a Miami decision, Arizona wanted Gallen. The reason why Miami pulled the trigger was because Gallen’s ceiling is a #3, while Chisholm, if developed correctly, can become an All Star SS (power, field, arm, speed, needs to keep developing hit tool), Miami has 2 guys with ace ceilings in the minors (Sixto and Edward Cabrera) and several guys with #3 ceilings (Braxton, Rogers, Neidert, etc.). Risky trade, but can pay amazing dividends.
LOL Gallen’s floor is a number 3 right now.
No way.
Lewis Brinson cratering as a big leaguer is a real gut punch
The story didn’t mention it, but the Marlins are moving the fences in for next season, 10 feet IIRC. Will the expected increase in offense be outweighed by an increase in opponents’ offense? This is potentially bad news for Smith, given that the story mentioned his problems with the long ball.
This is a good point.
Marlins are in a tough division. All NL East teams are already good to very good, and all seem to have the money to buy what they need to improve further.
Prospects are nice, but most are still waiting for someone from the Yelich trade to pan out. Of the youngsters, I like Yamamoto. Looks like he can be a solid #2 or #3 for years to come.
As for Smith, agree with the previous poster. He’ll be 30+ when (If?) the Marlins get good again. Marlins should cash in on him now while there’s interest. That 5+ FIP is more than a tad worrisome.
By the time the Marlins are ready to push for a playoff spot (2022), the Mets will stink and the Nats will be on the decline, Not sure what to think about the Phillies but the Braves will still be amazing. Point is, it won’t be as tough for them as it is today.
If I was the Marlins and any team was willing to give up something useful or interesting for Caleb Smith, I would jump all over it. He was an older, nondescript prospect who has thrown 250 MLB innings and has a career 4.66 ERA, 4.79 FIP and 4.87 xFIP. Last season was his first full season and he had an ERA over 4.5 and FIP and xFIP of 5+. On a still rebuilding team who is at least 2 seasons away from competing, get all the assets you can now. If you can turn a back end starter into a potential player who will have their team control match up with your hopeful contention window, it would be a win for the org.