Trade talks between the Angels and Tigers in regard to hurler Matthew Boyd have run cold for the moment, according to a tweet from Jon Morosi of the MLB Network citing unnamed sources (link). According to Morosi, Angels outfield prospect Brandon Marsh was one name discussed.
Chatter on Boyd has been somewhat quieter than one might’ve expected heading into an offseason relatively light on clear-cut pitching trade targets. Boyd, under Detroit’s watch through 2022, may not factor into the Tigers’ next championship-contending team, making his forthcoming arb awards somewhat superfluous for a rebuilding club. On the other side of the coin, his projected $6.4MM award for 2020 and promising underlying metrics paint him as an attractive target for a club looking for near-term pitching reinforcements.
The 28-year-old has been a consistent presence in the rumor mill for a few years now, although his bottom-line results have left something to be desired. An interested club would have to overlook the fact that the lefty has yet to post a full season pitching beneath a 4.00 ERA, but Boyd did demonstrate in 2019 that there may yet be some gold within the pyrite. A 4.56 ERA across 185.1 innings won’t quicken many heartbeats, but the hurler posted career-best 11.56 SO/9 and 2.43 BB/9 rates last year; his 3.88 xFIP would also indicate that there’s a better pitcher in Boyd beyond the surface-level numbers.
Even if Boyd promises to be a solid trade target for many clubs, it’s understandable that Angels GM Billy Eppler may have balked at the mention of Marsh’s name. The 22-year-old outfielder and former second-round pick just wrapped a Double-A season that saw him hit .300/.383/.428 with seven home runs and 18 steals—production that added up to a 137 wRC+ in the Texas League. The Indians were also said to have asked for Marsh in a potential Corey Kluber deal with L.A., so it would certainly seem that teams around the game have taken notice of Marsh’s promise.
jimmuscomp
Good. Don’t trade Marsh for Andrew Heaney 2.0.
DarkSide830
that’s a disservice to Heaney. Heaney has serious talent, he just cant stay healthy.
jimmuscomp
Boyd has talent too – just yet to fully realize it. Just like Heaney.
ChapmansVacuum
He could quite probably run up 10WAR in the rest of his ARB seasons for about 20M so thats like 80-100M in surplus value. Marsh might go up with the winter rewrites, but as of mid summer he was worth 28M in trade value, so they either wanted Adell + Marsh or Marsh + like 5 other top prospects, since Adell is the only top 100 guy on the team list. The only guy with enough trade value to land good SP without cleaning out a huge chunk of the teams other interesting prospects is the one guy they dont want to deal.
I think LAA is at least another development and draft year away from having enough minor league assets at full value to even think about a package for a desirable player. If you take Marsh + Adells value out from the team prospect page on Fangraphs they are by far the least valuable in baseball. Just losing Adell drops them to the clear least value farm system in baseball.
RandysJohnson
Great post. We’re living in the era of prospects right now. If I were a GM I would empty the farm system and go win a couple WS rings.
Steve Phillips
How many Heaneys do the Angels need?
ryanw-2
GM’s don’t go by top 100 prospects lists. They go by their own opinion of another organization’s top prospects. Right now, the Angels have only one prospect in the top 100. That can change. But at the same time, the Indians asked for Brandon Marsh, and so did the Tigers. Kole Calhoun is an example of a player who no one noticed as a prospect and then he had a consistently above average career, which is better than how most top 100 prospects end up. You never really know which player is going to have success in the Majors, unless it’s a Mike Trout.
macstruts
Boyd does have talent, but Haney was a top 25 prospect and you can look at TJ surgery as to why he has broken through. Boyd is 28 years old and I don’t think you can point to a reason why he hasn’t broken through. His lifetime ERA is 4.93.
I like Heaney’s odds of breaking through better than Boyd’s. The Angels don’t need an innings eater with a 4.5 ERA.
If the Angels are going to gamble, I’d much rather them take a chance on someone like Alex Wood than give up a player like Marsh for Boyd.
southbeachbully
@ChapmansVacuum
You are mind glowinglyabsurd. Boyd absolutely has potential to be a good starter but that potential hasn’t been realized. Why would any team give up a “Adell” caliber prospect or even “Marsh + like 5 other top prospects”. Marsh isn’t any big deal but neither is Boyd at this time. Yes, he can win you a few games on a good offensive team but he can also lose you some at the same rate. Whomever acquires him will do so thinking they can “fix” him. Why in the world would I pay that price AND I have to task MYSELF to hope he can transform himself to the next level????
That’s like selling me a car from the 50’s that’s a wreck and charging me the value of what it would cost for me to restore it. In the world of baseball that makes absolutely no sense. Boyd, as of 2019, is NOT going to net anywhere the “asks” I hear some Tiger fans suggesting….Yikes…get real.
Ace of Diamonds
Taijuan Walker can be signed for cheap. He should fully recovered from TJ. He pitched an inning on the last game of the season…
HaloShane
Macstruts, as mush as we battle I agree with this take 100%.
OtisSnord
I would love to see the Angels take a flyer on Walker. I wonder if Walker is looking for assurances that he’ll be in the majors. That might be a sticking point of the Angels wanted him to go to AAA to work out the kinks.
averagejoe15
I think your math is off here. 10 WAR is at most worth $90M and $20M in arb earnings is definitely undershooting what he’ll earn. At $6.4m this year, he’ll be near or over $10m next year and even more after that. $30m is probably more realistic so more like $40-60m in surplus value if you follow the $7-9m per WAR value, which is also debatable.
So based on fangraphs prospect values Marsh as a 50 FV wouldn’t be quite enough. However, there’s a good chance the Angels see Marsh as a 55-60 FV and at that point you’re looking at a somewhat even 1-1 swap.
Though the Tigers will also argue Boyd will reach another level and put up more than 10 WAR.
Dock_Elvis
No one thinks they can fix him…he’s been up in Seattle in that program and has already made the changes…and they show up in the peripherals. Go pull his stat comps on some important stats and see where he’s ranking…a blind test thinks hes an elite pitcher….just as it views Giolito in Chicago. If someone wanted to stash some nice fantasy studs there they is.
wileycoyote56
Tiger fan here, just a thought on Boyd. He strikes out a lot of people, throws very few ground balls. This may be more a product of knowing your defense really sucks so I got to do it myself
Ace of Diamonds
averagejoe15
Trout has a couple of 10 WAR seasons and makes nowhere near $90m/yr…
Phiilies2020
I think Heaney is finally gonna stay healthy and put it all together this year. Wouldnt be surprised if he pitches like a #2 or #3
Boyd sucks, I’m getting tired of hearing about him frankly
Strike Four
Boyd gave up 4 runs or less in 26 starts last year
He gave up 2 runs or less in 13 starts last year
The most amount of runs he gave up in game last year was 7, which he did one time, in 6 innings.
I can assure you, that is not what “sucks” is.
joparx
If these are real stats, this is the best rebuttal ever made in the comments section of this site, Boyd is ok, I’m not shipping Marsh for him though
Dutch Vander Linde
But it is mediocre
jbigz12
Andrew Heaney and Matt Boyd have the same HR issues. That doesn’t even make sense to dump on Boyd and praise Heaney’s talent. 2 High K lefties with HR issues.
jkurk_22
You’re right, he doesn’t suck. But he definitely isn’t a potential number 1 or 2. Maybe a 3 at best. But definitely not worth teams top prospects a less the team is 4-5 starter away from winning it all. People talk about him like he’s a true difference maker and he’s just not. Plus he’s supposed to be in his prime now at 28. Would suck to see him get worse as he ages
Sky14
Doesn’t scream all that good either. Means 19 of his starts he gave up 3 runs or more.
bhambrave
ERA isn’t everything you think it is, and giving up 4 runs isn’t good.
ChapmansVacuum
Heany is a guy with good peripherals who has consistently underperformed in ERA, FIP, xFIP by wide margins when looking at his K/9, and cant stay healthy for spit.
Ill take Boyd all day over a guy who has 1 in 6 season where he topped 110 innings and has all of 438IP in 5 1/4 major league seasons all starts. Prove you can pitch more then 30 innings a season on avg and run an ERA below 4 when you have Simmons and Trout defending for you. Heany has never shown he could be even a 140-160IP guy and his career WAR heading into last season was almost exactly what Boyd put up just last year. He was even better before he faded so you could dream on a low 3 ERA guy with Boyd, with Heany you dream on him taking the ball more then 10 times before 2021.
mlb fan
so Heaney’s analytic projections are GREAT, but his real life results suck every year, sounds like your average Angels pitcher,……..Projections, at the end of the day, really do not mean squat……
implant
Compare Boyd to Heaney all ya want but they both look like #3 and 4 ‘s to me. They fit well alongside the two other 3’s and 4’s, Teheran and Bundy. Is this a trade the Angels really aspire to make? Put together a package around Marsh and go get Thor.
OtisSnord
Boyd’s ERA after the all star break was 5.51. For the last 10 games it was 6.11. His supposedly legendary SO to BB ratio went from above 7 before the break to just barely above 3 after the break. His HRs given up also significantly rose. I can assure you, that IS what “sucks” is.
The Tigers blew it by not trading Boyd a year ago. An underperforming pitcher with a 92 mph fastball isn’t going to get top prospects from any GM with a brain.
Dock_Elvis
I agree….#3’s and maybe a 2…but on the extreme cheap
stewartnbuck
Eppler should make a push for Chris Archer
GeoKaplan
Yeah, no. I suspect the clock struck midnight for Archer a season ago.
Ejemp2006
Marsh is already 22 and hasnt done anything above AA. And you wouldn’t give him up for a legit major league starting pitcher? Even a 3-4 guy like Boyd? Jeesh!
Steve Phillips
If you were gonna give up Marsh , it would have been a better move to get Kluber
macstruts
Twenty Two? He just turned 22. He’s 2.6 years younger than his competition at AA. He jut tore up the Arizona Fall League, which is a really tough league, and he was 1.6 years younger than his competition.
I wouldn’t give him up for a pitcher who is gong to be 29 on ground hogs day and carries a lifetime 4.92 ERA . And Boyd did that pitching in the AL Central, which isn’t exactly the AL East.
GeoKaplan
@Ejemp2006 That is a really terrible take.
The average age of a player at AA level is 24, and Marsh projects to be in AAA next season (where the average age is 28, for different reasons), so he is well below a comparable age for other players at his level. On a comparative level, he is overachieving.
He has the speed to play CF and the arm strength to play a corner OF spot. He hits for contact and is growing into power. He’s built differently, but he could develop into a Jim Edmunds-type OF.
Boyd is a competent pitcher but not a difference-maker, based upon his performance to date. The problem is that Avila has had his pocket picked on too many trades and is asking for the moon here. The Angels are right to say no. Marsh projects as their LF in 2022, probably 4th OF in 2021.
macstruts
There is no way I’d trade Marsh for Boyd. Last year he was on Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects. This year he’ll be on everyone list of top 100 prospects.
I’d much rather the Angels bring in Alex Wood than trade Marsh for Boyd.
HaloShane
Macstruts, as much as we battle… great takes today. I agree with you 100%. Well put.
OtisSnord
Boyd before the All Star break:: 3.87 ERA Post All Star: 5.51
Pre All Star: 107 Innings, 142 SO, 20 BB
Post All Star: 78.1 IP,96 SO 30 BB
Pre All Star 107 IP, 19 HRs given up
Post All Star 78.1 IP, 20 HRs given up
Boyd’s ERA in his last 10 games: 6.11
Arm trouble? League figured him out? Who knows.
Nope, don’t give up Marsh for Boyd
davidkaner
Its cold because AA isn’t doing his job. If the Angels land a P & give up Marsh , I am going to lose it!
HalosHeavenJJ
Boyd is basically Teheran. You don’t give Marsh up for that.
Jon Gray or better, Marsh is on the table.
i like al conin
A plausible argument, but an experienced MLB SP with 3 years of control left with potential positive regression is a valuable commodity in the era.
Haloswoody
Positive PROgression not regression. If you regress you’re going backwards. I do agree and think Boyd will definitely continue to grow and improve though and wouldn’t mind seeing with the Angels.
i like al conin
I am correct, but certainly your easy mistake. From the Interwebs:
“Regression would mean going back to what they have done in the past. Positive regression would mean that they are better than their recent performance, so they would be going back to a value higher than current value.”
Haloswoody
I stand corrected, even at 35 I am still learning basic English. Gotta love California’s public school system.
Again correct me if I am wrong but the explanation would indicate that the positive regression would be going back to a value that’s higher than current value that was shown in the past? I don’t remember Boyd’s value ever being higher than it currently is.
i like al conin
Ha, yeah, me too. And yeah, that’s it. You can use positive or negative regression from any preferred baseline. And I’m with you on Boyd. His big problem is HRs- he reduces them with last year’s same performance and he should see that positive regression.
sacball
blaming a school system on your ineptitude is called “deflecting”
jules
Do not forget he is prone to the fly ball and that in Angel-stadium is a HR….and his ground ball rate is low…He will not help the cause. Prefer Robbie Ray…
Strike Four
“Boyd is basically Teheran.”
My god you are so very wrong. I just cant. How can you be so clueless???
mlb1225
He isn’t saying that Boyd and Teheran are similar in how they performed, or the kind of pitcher they are. He is saying, in terms of value, you don’t give up a borderline top 100 prospect for a #4 starter.
jkurk_22
He’s right. The only difference is Teheran consistently out pitches his metrics, while Boyd consistently under pitches his
macstruts
Teheran out performs his metrics because he throws five pitchers and will throw them at any time. He’s hard to square up.
There is a reason why some pitchers always outperform their metrics. And there is a reason why some pitchers don’.t
Dtownwarrior78
He’s hard to square up? Really? That certainly never manifests itself in his year end numbers!
macstruts
DtwonWarriors… Huh? It always manifest itself in year end number.
Teheran’s lifetime ERA is 3.67. His lifetime FIP is 4.23. His ERA+ is 110.
HalosHeavenJJ
Teheran is a tad younger with better ERA+ in each of the last 2 years and on his career.
Boyd has better peripherals, but bottom line results favor the guy we got on a one year deal.
Boyd is not worth Marsh. Just like Teheran wasn’t.
prov356
I think he’s saying that they are literally the same person.
its_happening
I couldn’t believe the line was written. Boyd is basically Teheran?
That’s a slap in the face to Teheran.
ChapmansVacuum
Marsh was worth 28M in trade value according to FG on the mid season update. He isnt on anyones top 100. You would be lucky to get a 3WAR pitcher with upside in his K/BB for Marsh plus another handful of guys in the teams top 30. Boyd put up 27M in value for 2.1M last season, so him last year on a one year then FA was worth Marsh’s trade value.
He has 3 more years where his production will be similar for a little over 20M in salary. You could make an argument that since Adell is worth 62MM doing him for Boyd one for one is almost spot on. Do FG farm rankings Adell is the 65FV worth 62M Marsh is the 50FV worth 28M on the chart.
fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-p…
Those were updated mid season. Boyd projects for another 3.1 WAR, and if he did make a leap in HR reduction it could jump up to around 5 WAR quickly. 3.1WAR with 190IP guys dont grow on trees and Boyd is worth at least 1 top 100 guy, Gray is projected for .3 more WAR then Boyd next year at 3.4 and has one fewer season of team control while projecting to cost more! Boyd is worth a lot because you get 3 seasons for cheap of a #3 with #2 upside in his K/BB and a good health track record.
macstruts
How do you list fangraphs and then say he’s not on anyone list? He was on BP list a year ago, since he did very well at AA and was 2.6 years younger than his competition, he’ll be on everyone’s list this year. He also did very well in the Arizona Fall League.
OtisSnord
Keep fighting the good fight, macstruts
mlb fan
I am not familiar with Angels prospect Marsh, but after watching them a lot growing up, I am glad to hear they have a decent prospect in their barren farm, other than Jo Adell……..
Ace of Diamonds
They have few good prospects. They will moving up through the farm system over the next year or so. Keep an eye open for Jeremiah Jackson .266/.333/.605/.939 – 23HR – 65 games.
OtisSnord
The Angels farm system isn’t barren. That’s 2014 talking. But since they’re recovering from the abysmal Ric Wilson era, and from a period under DiPoto where they weren’t active in international signings,, the bulk of the best prospects are younger and at the lower levels. The issue isn’t lack of good prospects, it’s lack of good prospects who are near ready for MLB
BobSacamano
Sounds like a win-win on both sides. I’d sure gladly keep Boyd
OtisSnord
And I’d gladly keep Marsh, so yes, it’s a win win. Good luck in the rebuild, hope to see the Tigers up near the top again.
Ace of Diamonds
Teheran was a free agent not a trade pickup…
13Morgs13
I think fans overvalue prospects. A LOT. But I wouldn’t give up Marsh for Boyd(as a headliner), and I’m not even that high on Marsh.
TheMick7
Perfectly accurate…. It’s tough to translate his limited production in minors to solid numbers in the show, but obviously they are strong indicators of performance. Nevertheless, I would not give up Marsh for Boyd, and the Angels won’t either. Just get Alex Wood if you want to try a lefty with potential and keep Marsh. Good job, Halos, on not making a regrettable decision.
orange2001
Agree completely.
HalosHeavenJJ
Agree. Although I think Adell is more of a boom or bust guy (lots of swing and miss) while Marsh looks like a steady on base guy with a good glove, the safer pick.
ChapmansVacuum
Fangraphs tries to work backwards from both the data other parts of the site have done on the $/WAR breakdown its what the whole midseason trade values series is. They then try to accurately determine prospect trade value based on past trades. There are other sites that have done a breakdown of value based on top 100 position. Adell is worth 62M in WAR dollars after salary from an incoming player Marsh is worth 28M. So Marsh is worth 3 WAR after covering the players salary with WAR production, aka surplus value over contract. If a 1 WAR player on a 1 year deal is worth 9M$ or 9m = 1 WAR. A 4 WAR player on a 9M contract that expires this season is exactly his value.
Boyd last year = Marsh’s trade value.
Look at what ARI got for one year of Goldshmidt. Marsh is being overvalued I think because he is a top team prospect in a mediocre to bad system that has around half its #18 in MLB value tied up in one player. Trade Adell and thats a #30 farm system.
TBR have the top system if you dealt the top two from it that would be 170M or 18WAR, so you package those two to get a player with 4 years of control with 4.5 WAR per season after say 18M AAV salaries thats a 6.5WAR player over 4 years costing you 4Y72M. Thats a real stud on a good contract, but your giving up the only 70FV in baseball along with a 65FV so you expect a stud.
Adell + Marsh buy you 10WAR surplus value, so a 3.5 WAR player on a 4 year 9M AAV deal. It gets you something a little better then Boyd was last year on a 4Y36M deal. A good player for sure but no super star. LAA dont even have the prospects to build a deal for someone like Acuna, a stud on a long deal that pays way to little, Acuna is worth something like 30WAR surplus on a deal that pays him like a 1 win player.
RandysJohnson
I admire the work that you put into that post. I agree and feel that the Angels are missing out on a fair offer that will better their MLB ball club.
I also feel that a Boyd trade to the Phillies would make sense due to the fact that their entire rotation is right handed and that they already have a high payroll like the Angels. Any chance you want to run the numbers on a fair return for the Tigers from the Phillies?
Asfan0780
Dustin fowler and secondary prospects for boyd
TheMick7
I think this makes much more sense than the Boyd-for-Marsh proposal. Asfan, good work.
spinach
Fowler, Mateo, and Kaprellian.
Begamin
ha
ChapmansVacuum
Det would be pretty dumb to take that deal. 3 guys that all are 40Man with one that cant even be optioned next year, and no MLB success between them.
Kap hasnt had his velo bounce back since he got healthy, and is a 1M value 40FV until it comes back.
Fowler is a former 50FV worth what Marsh is when ranked who has struggled some in MLB but hasnt gotten a great shot.
Mateo is a non-optionable 45FV who has no MLB appearances yet worth 7M.
I mean if they want to do that for Boyd I am down the A’s could then ship Fiers to LAA for Jhamai Jones(just throwing a 45FV), and see if the colosseum can contain any of those HR when the fogs in.
I really wouldnt mind if Fiers got dealt since I think he’s a worse number 5 then Bassitt by stuff and stats, and the front 4 should be Montas, Luzardo, Manaea, Puk. I guess some might not be able to make a full seasons starts since Luzardo/Puk might be on innings limits, but Jefferies, Kap, Holmes, Blackburn, Dunshee are all around for depth.
steelerbravenation
I think he was joking that was what oakland got for Gray
sacball
Kaprielian’s velocity at the end of last season was touching 97 and regularly sat at 95.
Ejoey
Marsh is not even ranked in the top 100, with 50 rank. If that’s all it takes we would see every team in baseball offering their 50 ranked not in the top 100 prospects. Think about that.
Tatsumaki
Ranking system is biased just like this website commenters. Devalues teams like angels because they arent a house hold name like teams like yankees or dodgers.
DarkSide830
Marsh is at worst borderline 100, and im not even a huge Marsh fan.
Strike Four
Marsh is definitely not top 150.
Priggs89
Fangraphs had him at #74 to end 2019… He’s absolutely going to be top 150 to start this year.
RandysJohnson
MLB.com ranked Daniel Norris 25th in their 2014 Top 100 MLB Prospects… would you rather have the Tigers trade him instead of Boyd?
….my point is that rankings come and go and you gotta give something if you want to get something.
jbigz12
Brandon Marsh is absolutely a top 150 prospect. That’s ignorant to think otherwise. He’s a top 100 or right on the periphery. But that honestly has very little bearing. These clubs have their own internal rankings on guys.
ChapmansVacuum
22 year old that hasnt played in AAA and put up good numbers without being young for the leagues. Doesnt have much power, but he did manage to cut down the Ks this past season.
macstruts
It’s hard for me to take you seriously when you say a guy who turned 22 ten days ago hasn’t played in AAA. He played in AA last year and was 2.6 years younger than the league average.
You do all that work and you didn’t notice he turned 22 ten days ago?
angels1961
New top 100 coming out in a week Marsh will be on it.
bravesfan88
Yeah, so that obviously tells you GMs and their scouts are higher on Marsh than the “prospect gurus.”
Ejemp2006
Yep, GMs are high when they rank Marsh. Boyd is a legit MLB level pitcher. Marsh is an okay prospect that the Angels are trying to repackage as some future star.
OtisSnord
First, that’s last year’s list. Marsh will be ranked well into the top 100 in 2020. Second, Boyd’s numbers fell off a cliff in the second half last year. For a pitcher with a 92 mph fastball who’s never broken through like people expected, that’s not a red flag, that’s the rockets’ red glare. Think about that.
Rangers29
Why was there a need for Jon Morosi to say that talks have run cold instead of not just saying anything?
TheMick7
Slow news day after Christmas. It’s like the articles where they throw out a trade candidate and name teams that would be a good fit, only to say that no team is interested.
I saw on another news site that Josh Hader to the Yankees is one correct prospect away from happening. I wonder why there isn’t more coverage on that rather than this type of news, if one must write about something.
Rangers29
@TheMick7 I’d rather see Josh Hader news a lot more than this, not because I am a Yankees or Brewers fan, but just because it is actual news! This Matt Boyd report is practically just saying what people could infer. No Matt Boyd news = talks running cold.
Lanidrac
At some point you have to accept that Boyd is one of those pitchers whose results just won’t ever match up to his peripherals. ERA has its own flaws, but it’s still a better tool than most at analyzing actual pitching results. Boyd is still a Major League starter, but any acquiring team should expect him to be more of a 5th starter than a 3rd starter.
Strike Four
5th starters give up 5+ runs more often than 3rd starters.
Boyd had 26 starts of 4 runs or less last year, and 13 of 2 runs or less.
I’m sorry, you are just wrong – having that many low-run outings just isn’t what a 5th starter is, it’s what a 2nd or 3rd starter is.
TheMick7
As I’ve said before, he is a younger Robbie Ray, but I don’t think that’s a fifth starter on most teams. I must agree with strike four on that point.
bhambrave
That’s a 4 or 5 on a contender, a 2 or 3 on a non-contender.
Evan Siggson
Last year I felt Boyd was extremely underrated, now I feel he’s incredibly over-rated.
Strike Four
He’s definitely worth at least Marsh, but not Adell. That’s his value.
sacball
it’s because his second half looked more like an Angels starter
OtisSnord
Exactly. His ERA before the all star break was 3.87. Afterwards, it was 5.51. Last ten games: 6.11. Tigers should have traded him early in 2019. Nobody’s trading Marsh for Boyd now.
orange2001
If the Angels refused to trade Marsh for Kluber, then there’s no point in trading him for Boyd.
SashaBanksFan
Agreed
RandysJohnson
Disagree. Kluber broke his pitching forearm last May. Who knows if he’ll ever be the same again.
TheMick7
Maybe Boyd should break his own arm; if he was never the same again, he might be good.
Questionable_Source
You’re right. Kluber could completely fall off a cliff and have a 4.93 ERA the rest of his career.
mlarr64
From what I gather, the Indians wanted Marsh and Fletcher.
SashaBanksFan
And if that is true, it makes it even more ridiculous for what they got from Texas
SheltonMatthews
If they can’t get Trout and Adell for him, I wouldn’t do it
Rangers29
Matt Boyd for Trout and Adell, done! The Angels would be happy with that offer everyday of the week!
OtisSnord
Satire lives!
bravesfan88
Of note, Marsh didn’t play in the Texas League last season, he played in the SOUTHERN League
1738hotlinebling
The angels have nothing to offer unless they are willing to take on miggys contract , then we could have the greatest lineup of 2012 , Pujols Miggy Trout, Upton ,Simmons go resign Lucroy and get goin
Questionable_Source
If the Angels are trying to field an early to mid decade all-star team, they will have to outbid the Phillies. Harper, Segura, McCutchen, Arrieta. I’m willing to bet the Angels money is nowhere nearly this stupid.
SashaBanksFan
“There may be some gold with the pyrite” is my favorite line of the day.
TroyVan
Boyd’s best days are ahead of him. He’s a GREAT guy with a solid work ethic. Just wait until he’s on a team with a solid defense behind him and offensive production where he can pitch with a lead now and then.
RandysJohnson
The Tigers need to do a better job of (sales) pitching their players. They’ve been pulling teeth to trade their players away the past few years and have received minimal returns. First, no one wanted JD Martinez because he was a defensive liability, then it took them until the last minute of the old August deadline to trade Verlander because he was too old, then it took two years to trade Castellanos because he didn’t have a position.
Boyd is a 28 year old, left handed, inning eating, strikeout machine with 3 years of control. There were 5 players with a higher k/9 last season. They were Cole, Scherzer, Ray, Verlander and Giolito. The next 5 players behind Boyd were Darvish, Paxton, DeGrom, Morton and Corbin. Every team interested in making the playoffs next year should be interested Boyd.
Also, what’s the point of coveting an OF like Brandon Marsh when you have Trout, Upton and Jo Adell for the foreseeable future? The Angels need cheap major league ready pitching now not 4th outfielders. If this deal is on the table for the Angels and they’re balking… shame on them.
bravesfan88
Just because a prospect is “blocked” doesn’t mean a team should just trade him, because another team wants him.
Marsh offers the Angels alot of value as a trade chip, and they can use him to acquire a better pitcher than Boyd. If they can’t acquire a better pitcher, then okay you give in to the Tigers demands; however, until then, yo UK see if you can get a deal done with a lesser package.
RandysJohnson
Please name a single pitcher that you think the Angels could acquire for Brandon Marsh that’s more valuable than Boyd.
bravesfan88
I never said he has to be the only piece of the deal. I said he offers them a valuable trade asset they could potentially use to acquire a better pitcher..
Gray, Clevinger, Ray, etc.
angelsfan4life
RandysJohnson, Jon Grey. There is one pitcher for you. Better career numbers, despite pitching in a hitter friendly park.
RandysJohnson
Angelsfan4life, I’ll give you Jon Gray. I’m not convinced he’s better than Boyd but not a bad alternative with one less year of control. I still don’t see the Rockies taking less than Marsh though.
Bravesfan88, if the Angels can acquire Clevinger or Ray, they should do it.
steelerbravenation
Musgrove, Shark, Marco Gonzalez, Jon Gray, Price, Clevinger, Caleb Smith, Danny Duffy, Thor
hockeyjohn
Just because the Dodgers have asked about Clevinger does not mean that he is available.
bravesfan88
It is no surprise that the Tigers were trying to target Marsh though, when they were in talks with the Braves they also asked for the similarly skilled Drew Waters..
Just the same, the Tigers got nowhere with those demands. Unsurprisingly, the Braves also declined, and rightfully so.
It is clear what the Tigers are looking for though. They are looking for a talented, CF capable, all-around toolsy young OF’er with a solid mixture of speed and power..
I guess the Tigers figured they couldn’t get Waters from the Southern league, so they might as well target a prospect that is a little older with a little less upside and overall talent..lol..Which is not a knock on Marsh, but he just is not as valuable, nor as talented as Waters.
steelerbravenation
i can see Boyd being looked at by the Blue Jays. I don’t know what the return would be but definitely see them having interest.
How bout the Dodgers they just lost Ryu and have a deep farm .
Hard to walk with four balls
The Dodgers are trash, they could have had Verlander in 2017 but held their prospects like morons and gave the WS to the Astros.
halohansen
Come eppler trade marsh if that’s what they want my god
bravesfan88
@Dylan Chase ….Marsh was in the SOUTHERN LEAGUE, not the Texas League..
I’m typically not one to correct errors, but, as a hitter, the league a prospect plays in does impact how he is viewed..
throwinched10
The Angels need to get a SP who has the ability to dominate a game. Boyd isn’t a finished product by any means, but he has the kind of upside that they need. The Angels would have been better off with Bungarner or Cole, but that ship has sailed.
Evan Siggson
Wow. Cole is better than Boyd. Hot take there!
BobSacamano
Slim pickings
Geno55
Brandon Marsh I think a lot of scouts see a lot of talent I have followed him and let me tell you what he’s got speed good defender good throwing arm he’s starting to hit for an average Once he hits for power he could be a five tool player this is what all the hype is about
bravesfan88
I don’t really see the power coming, but he doesn’t need alot of power to be a good player. He already does so many other things well enough, he can thrive with his defense, hitting for average, his speed, and his base running skills.
jbigz12
6’4 215– you tweak his launch angle and let him put on 10 lbs and the power could certainly come. It doesn’t have to be massive power but there’s no reason to think this guy is maxed out as a 10 hr OF. 20 HR could be well within reach for this guy.
weaselpuppy
Start running down a list of starting pitchers that are available for trade at this point better than Boyd. It’s pretty short if it even exists at all. But you go ahead and hang on to your magic beans, because when the Angels once again for the next couple of years fail to field a team talented enough to get Trout to a World Series, he’s eventually going to force a trade to someone who will. Then you’re going to need this Magical Outfield Prospect.
You got to admit this is pretty Savvy planning for a future you know you’re going to screw up. Excellent work Eppler oh, excellent work.
jimthegoat
If getting to play in the playoffs were important to Mike Trout he wouldn’t have signed his life away to that joke of a team. Either way, it’s not his prerogative to force the Angels to do anything.
OtisSnord
Let me guess, before Trout signed his extension, you were telling the world it was absolutely, positively, undeniably, ineluctably, 100%,, no 1,000% percent certain that he’d leave for Philadelphia instead.
steelerbravenation
I know I absolutely, positively, undeniably, ineluctably, 1.000% was. I do a lot of work in Millville where he is from and people that supposedly know him and have pictures on their wall with him all told me he would be going to Philly for years.
But Arte gave him a number he couldn’t turn down. But I woulda lost money at an AC Sportsbook and could admit it.
OtisSnord
Cool. I respect you for that reply.
shortytallz
ja happ to angels for 2 low level prospects
TheMick7
Yeah, shorty, I agree with that. Happ won’t get a good return but it will free up contract money for the Yanks and give the Angels a very tenured pitcher. The reality is though, At this point in his career, Boyd is better than Happ, unless Happ can replicate his end-of-season pitching.
steelerbravenation
Boyd is better but won’t cost as much in terms of prospects
toycannon
The players who will factor in the Tigers next championship team have yet to be born.
RandysJohnson
Same with the Angels… I hear one of their prospects is a five tool fetus with major upside. 😉
bravesfan88
Yeah, especially if they keep holding onto their top players too long, and in the mean time trying to ask for the moon and the stars..
I bet Tiger’s fans kill themselves looking at the reported packages that the Tigers declined for Fullmer..
They have managed to somehow completely screw themselves over and over again with their previous top trade candidates. I hope for their fans’ sake, they don’t continue making the same mistake with Boyd. However, they already could have gotten more for Boyd last year, so, to a degree, they have already backed themselves into a corner yet again…
How a franchise could be so mismanaged is just sad for their fans…At this rate, it’ll be a cold day in hell before the Tigers become a legitimate threat again..
BobSacamano
Fulmer is not a vegetable.. let’s see what he does this year before we write him off. If you think that was Detroit’s biggest mistake you’re wrong. Joey Wentz is looking pretty good though
TheMick7
Bob, you bring up a very good point. It wasn’t long ago when Fulmer was one of the most desired trade candidates, and at the time, it was right of the Tigers to demand high-value returns. Fulmer’s return to good pitching could be a difference-maker for the Tigers in a couple of ways.
steelerbravenation
As. a Brave fan I always like Wentz. I seen him pitch in the minors a couple times. Sally League. Not overly impressive stuff but someone that made me take notice.
RandysJohnson
“the moon and the stars”…. is that really what you think they’re doing? Look at the returns on their players over the past few years. The Tigers aren’t asking for much here. I think the Angels are making a big mistake if they don’t work something out with the TIgers
Also, the Angels franchise could really be putting themselves in a bad spot if they don’t upgrade their starting pitching this offseason. They’re already projected to be 4th in Payroll in the American League (behind the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox) and the rotation is Teheran, Heaney, Bundy, Canning and Sandoval. Yikes.
TheMick7
RandyJohnson: I think all your points are a valid and well constructed; however, your point that they need serious {upgrades} contains the operative word. Boyd gives them another 3-4 starter, and they need better pitching, not more of the same. From the Tigers perspective, I don’t really see the logic with an untested Marsh. From both sides I think this is a no-go.
Again, your argument is sound, I just believe Marsh could be combined with other prospects to get them better pitching.
spinach
San Diego.
BobSacamano
Discovered by the Germans in 1904
BobSacamano
Why is marsh so coveted? He’s a 22 year old AA 287/.368./431 career, who strikes out 28%, with no power. I would much rather keep Boyd
macstruts
He’s 2.6 years younger than the AA Competition and he still hit 300 with a 383 OBP. He was 1.1 years younger than his competition in the Arizona Fall League, which is a very tough league, and he tore it up hitting 328.
Marsh is a very good prospect. And you can say he’s 22, but he just turned 22 ten days ago. Those were 21 year old season.
BobSacamano
True. I’d honestly much rather keep Boyd. His stats are crazy bipolar. Great obp but horrible ko. Kind of like…Boyd’s lol
macstruts
Detroit needs someone who can eat innings. The Angels added two of those pitchers over the off season. I don’t think they are looking for an innings eater to throw into a six man rotation.
Boyd at that cost doesn’t work for the Angels.
BasesLoaded
Here’s a thought if Halos Fans would entertain words.
Johnny Cueto for Marsh. Have the Giants throw in another pitcher like a Sam Coonrod or a Gustave. It would give the Halos a solid Bullpen arm plus Cueto for 2 years.
OntariGro
Ooooh, the guy entering his age 34 season who’s pitched at total of 69 innings in the past two years (including a whopping 16 IN of 5.06 pitching in ’19) AND a bullpen arm?! Oh and at a mere $21.8 million a year. A bargain at twice the price.
BasesLoaded
You don’t build teams by looking at small pitcher. When Cueto has a 2.50 ERA in July in his price has tripled, reply to this post.
OntariGro
Sorry, wasn’t aware that a pitcher’s age, rapidly declining skills, increased inability to remain healthy/on the field, and the 8 figure per-season price tag for that attractive package constitutes the “small picture.” What’s the big picture?
“He used to be very good. When? Roughly a high=school career/Presidential term/two Olympics ago””?
“We could have the albatross of David Price around our necks, but what about a guy who has pitched worse/been hurt more in the last 3 seasons? Lord knows the Angels reputation for stellar rotation health.”?
“When Cueto has a 2.50 ERA in July in his price has tripled, reply to this post.”
So you want me to somehow travel back to July of 2016 to reply to this post? ‘Cause that’s the last time Cueto touched/will touch that number.
Dr_Doom14
They didn’t want to trade Marsh for Kluber? Lol again, Eppler is just horrible at his job
Vizionaire
33 year old with -0.4 war? and that’s negative war. you sure sound like dr. dumb.
BobSacamano
Maybe you should recheck Kluber’s 2 cy young stat page. Do you really think Kluber is going to have a -.4 War this year? Texas has a top ten pitcher for half the price
Vizionaire
his arm could fall off.
snotrocket
What about a trade for Jeff Samardzija instead? His worst full seasons are still better than Boyd’s best seasons, and he would cost a lot less prospect capital.
Ashtem
Samardzija is another back end starter
snotrocket
I know, but I don’t think the Giants would be asking for a return like he is an ace, like the Tigers are apparently doing with Boyd. Shark was good for 180 innings of 3.5 ball last year. That isn’t terrible.
BasesLoaded
Shark had had 1 bad year in SF, really. Everything else has been solid/serviceable/good at times. In 2017 he threw 20 Quality Start. 200 Innings with a good K/BB ratio. He was simply injured in 2018 and returned to form in 2019. Only thing is he doesn’t throw 97-98 anymore. He tops off at 95-96, but if you ask me he’s a better pitcher now.
steelerbravenation
Hate the Giants but I don’t agree. Shark could be a #3 on a real good team or a #2 on a bad team.
bhambrave
Samardzija is a lot like Teheran, only better. A reliable innings eater that can provide league average or better performance. With the Angel’s offense, that’s all he’d need to be.
macstruts
There were 21 A.L. pitchers who qualified for the ERA title last year. That’s an innings eater. The Angels got a couple of those pitchers during the off season, they don’t need another.
What the Angels need is someone who has a reasonable amount of potential to throw 110 good innings, not 160 mediocre innings.
That’s not Boyd. That’s not Samardzija. Maybe that’s Alex Wood and Wood would not cost them a prospect.
Ashtem
Boyd is so mediocre
macstruts
Marsh is a very good prospect. If you don’t know it, that’s on you.
Maybe Boyd can put it together, maybe he can’t. But right now he’s an innings eater with a lifetime 4.92 ERA. When the Angels added Bunday and Tehran, they took care of their need for an innings eater. They need something else.
Boyd doesn’t have Haney’s potential. Heaney was a top 25 prospect who is recovering from TJ surgery. Maybe he’ll never come back from that, maybe he will.
If the Angels are going to go after someone who “may” put together a year, I’d much rather them sign Alex Wood and not give up a prospect.
Asking Marsh for Boyd is too much.
BobSacamano
Yeah, I find it strange Angels are even considering Boyd at this point. If they’re trying to trade, why not go big with Clevinger? I would also appreciate DET to sign Alex Wood or Nova
BasesLoaded
Both Halos and Tigers Fans are over valuing their guys. Boyd isn’t worth Marsh and it would take way, way, way more to get Clevinger, In reality Halos can’t afford Clevinger, This is why I call the Cozart trade bad. Will Wilson could have been packaged with Marsh and perhaps that could have landed Clev, but in all honesty I doubt even that’s enough. Clevinger should command a best prospect on farm like a Lux or Adell.
Vizionaire
he’s not an innings eater since he pitched 5.8 innings per start in ’19.
macstruts
When only 21 American League pitchers qualified for Cy Young and Boyd was #11 in innings pitched, I think by most people’s definition, that’s an innings eater.
TheMick7
I agree, Wood is a much better signing than trading for Boyd. I’m actually a bit surprised with the need for starters nobody has taken a flyer on him. Bob and Vizionaire also bring up valid points – why not combine Marsh with other prospects to get a high-level starter; and if he’s pitching 5.9 innings on average, he’s average on innings, relatively speaking.
MrAngelFan
@macstruts I agree. No way the Angels make this trade. Only available pitchers that I would consider trading Marsh for is Jon Gray or Clevinger. Angels need someone that could potentially be a #2, not another 4 or 5 and that is what I view Boyd as currently..
halo6219
it will stay cold between the Halos and Tigers until the later drops the asking price…rightly so..
BobSacamano
Maybe Detroit wants to keep Boyd? And if LA offers something that’s hard to refuse it’ll happen. DET is content with Boyd, and LA is content with Marsh. The trade didn’t work out.. Does that make it DETs fault?
OtisSnord
I agree. A Marsh for Boyd trade isn’t happening, so it’s time for everyone to move on. Just like the two actual teams have moved on.
JoeBrady
DET is content with Boyd
—————————-
They shouldn’t be. Waiting/hoping for a rebound has merit. Being content holding on to Boyd, not so very much.
BobSacamano
So what are they supposed to do Joe? They like Boyd and value him differently than you do. What does merit have to do with any of this?
OCTraveler
Would definitely prefer Boyd over Wood …. Wood was inconsistent last year and fragile as well … could probably use a new address as well as pitching coach and training staff. Boyd on the other hand is worth a try for the Dodgers – change of leagues and coaching style might do him good plus Boyd gets out of bad weather early in the season and might even get a chance to pitch in October.
If LA could get him for the right price – maybe a deal like Muncy or Pedersen plus a prospect for Boyd and a lower prospect – then it is worth a try., but if you’re one of those who think he’s worth any deal involving Lux, May or any other high prospect, no chance.
BobSacamano
I don’t think LA would accept that, and I think DET wants younger and more controllable years. Muncy and a prospect would be fantastic for me though!
BobSacamano
or Pederson*
Munkes2
So Indians asked for Marsh in return for Kluber,,,but settled on 2 turds from the Rangers lol… Well alright then
hockeyjohn
Cleveland wanted MLB ready help in a Kluber trade and they got a potential closer in Clase. The other offers that the Indians received either offered lower level prospects not MLB ready or teams wanted the Indians to take back a bad contract like Odor. Cleveland usually does a great job in those type of trades such as getting Mike Clevinger for reliever Vinnie Pestano. We will see if they made the correct move or not.
dirkg
There are 2 factors at play here: 1) should the Angel’s trade their #2 OF prospect for pitching and 2) is Boyd worth the Angel’s #2 prospect? IMO #1 is yes for the right return and #2 is probably not. Assuming health, Upton/Trout/Adell will have the OF positions through 2022. If injuries occur, you also have Goodwin and Fletcher to fill in. I would trade Marsh in a pkg for the best pitcher on the open trade market and I would assume that best pitcher is not Boyd. But I WOULD trade him for pitching. A starter in 2019 is WAY more valuable to this org that an OF prospect for 2023+.
steelerbravenation
Would you do Marsh for Musgrove ?
dirkg
Assuming Cleveland wants the farm for Clevinger, my #1 target would be Colorados Jon Gray. I really think he’d blossom out of CO and his 4.0 WAR was sneaky good last year. Musgrove is a solid pitcher, but I place him in the good not great camp the same as Boyd. I would call on Robbie Ray and Chris Archer before Boyd and Musgrove.
OtisSnord
I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that by 2021, the Angels move Upton to 1B, put Marsh in the outfield with Trout and Adell, trade Matt Thaiss (He was part of the package they offered Cleveland for Kluber), and let Pujols’ rotting corpse be the backup DH behind Ohtani.
mecousinvinny
It will take more than Marsh to land Boyd
BobSacamano
Considering what DET got in return for Greene last year..I hope so.
JoeBrady
I’d be surprised if that was Detroit’s offer. I guess that Marsh was only one of the players offered, Someone above mentioned he heard that Detroit asked for Marsh + Fletcher, which I wouldn’t accept either.
But Boyd-Marsh, imo, would be a slam dunk for the Angels.
OtisSnord
It will take more than Boyd to land Marsh.
pinballwizard1969
in all honest Boyd is a dog. The Angels would be better off trading for the Yankees Happ on a 1 yr deal and maybe only giving up a mid level prospect.
mecousinvinny
I agree with that
BobSacamano
If it means staying away from Boyd..As a Tiger’s fan, I’m all for it.
Msfan
I’ll bet the Mariners are in on Boyd. He’s the right age and from the Pacific Northwest. Let’s see how Dipoto plays this…
billbraskey
Maybe asking for Marsh is too much, but I’m not understanding why some are classifying Bundy and Wood as innings-eaters. I agree on Teheran, but both Bundy and Wood have a history of durability issues. Not the case with Boyd, and as pointed out, financially, he comes cheap, and thus provides solid to significant value for a team. The Angels – or some other taker – could also potentially look to spin Boyd and some other pieces back to another team for an upgrade at SP around the deadline, assuming he performs at least similarly to how he performed last year.
macstruts
Boyd throwing 355 innings over the last two years with an ERA of 4.5 makes him an innings eater. Alex Wood is not an innings eater. I don’t anyone who thinks he is.
When the Angels added Bundy and Teheran this off-season, they took care of their innings issues. Now they need someone who can throw 100 to 120 good innings. Alex Wood may be able to do that. For the Angels staff, I prefer Wood over Boyd. If the Angels needed someone to fill 150 to 170 innings, I’d prefer Boyd.
But regardless, I would no give up Marsh for someone who projects to eat 160+ innings at a 4.5+ ERA. That’s not going to help the Angels obtain their goal.
JoeBrady
As a RS, I assume that Casas and Marsh have similar value. If Detroit offered Boyd straight up for Casas, I’d take it and run. While I think Detroit overvalues Boyd, he is a lot better than his stats indicate. At worst, I think he becomes a solid #4 with the potential to be a #2.
On the debit side of the equation, you are dealing with a team that overreached last year, and might not want to repeat that, and for a player that ended the year badly. That gives you leverage.
It should also be noted that Marsh has 293 Ks in 1,204 PAs. He gets some walks as well, but that strikeout rate is sky high.
Vizionaire
so, the angels keeps him. just wonder, though, why would so many gm’s are after marsh. i’m guessing they know more than you or i do.
JoeBrady
None of us really know how many GMs are after Marsh, or Casas for that matter. I’d bet that approximately 29 other GMs have asked about both. And I’d bet both the Angels & RS have said ‘just for fun, what would you offer for Marsh/Casas’. But that doesn’t mean that either side is serious.
68tigers84
If Boyd has a break through super year, he will bring much more. But that’s asking a lot on a young rebuilding team. Tough choice to make.
hiflyer000
Boyd has to be one of the most overrated players I’ve ever seen. People talk about him like he’s a #1 but his stats and overall performance place him squarely in the low end MOR/high end BOR tier. There is a reason he’s been on the block so long with no takers, and that is because the Tigers want the moon and stars for him and he isn’t worth anything close to that.
68tigers84
I don’t agree, Boyd on a good contending team would probably flourish. Plus he is a Lefty, much younger than Verlander. Better get him now for the moon & stars. If he pitches super this season, he’ll command solid gold at the July trade deadline.
68tigers84
I don’t give much value to your stats. A lot of difference pitching with a four run lead, compared to pitching being four runs down. Having to get four outs in an inning, because of defensive errors.
its_happening
Boyd to the Twins for Rosario and Duran.
pjsportsdude85
marsh and thasis for boyd. done deal
OtisSnord
Not a done deal, because only the Tigers would think that’s a good deal. The Angels hang up on that one.
Dr_Doom14
Just sign Alex wood and keep the prospects
bhambrave
How often do mediocre 29 year old pitchers have “break-out seasons” or “turn the corner”? I’m thinking not very often. We’ll see.
OtisSnord
Especially when their numbers fell off a cliff in the second half of the previous season, like Boyd’s did. The Tigers waited too long to trade him and now they’ll get much less than they would have a year ago.
brucenewton
Boyd gave up 26 homers in 86 innings at Comerica and was bad in the second half overall. Pass.
BasesLoaded
In a pitcher’s park.
mecousinvinny
Marsh is a suspect not a prospect I dont see anything outstanding about his minor league stats
macstruts
Vinny, if you don’t see anything outstanding about a 21 year old, who is 2 and a half years younger than his competition, who hits 300 and controls knows the strikezone, that’s on you.
Not to mention, the only players in the ARZ fall league who were younger and out hit Marsh were Adress Gimenez and Royce Lewis, Do you not see anything in them either?
pstef123
To everyone saying that the Angels can’t trade Marsh I have two words…Brandon Wood.
OntariGro
Brandon Wood…a different player with different skills/tools who played a different position. Good point?
pstef123
A “can’t miss prospect” who the Angels refused to trade. That was my point.
OntariGro
Right. Them being different players with different tools/skill sets playing different positions who have so far progressed through the minors differently is what makes it a bad point.
wordonthestreet
It may habe been your point but it still makes no sense as it is not logical
macstruts
Other Angel #3 prospects. Troy Glaus, Mike Trout, Joe Adell.
So I guess that means those guys should have been traded.
JoeBrady
I would trade Marsh for Boyd, but it is a little silly to suggest that Brandon Wood is a good reason to not trust prospects. If Detroit could get Ruiz or May for Boyd, Aliva would drive him to LA himself.
idowebster
Boyd for Suarez would be a good deal for both teams; Suarez would meet the Tigers development path better than Boyd
californiaangels
hoenslty LOVE marsh! would I think his floor is rather high with a very high ceiling too if his power develops . would rather trade Adell while his value is as high as it will be. his floor is much lower and he still needs to prove AAA..no easy feat.
OntariGro
What about Adell makes you think his floor is lower than Marsh’s? Adell has risen to AAA a year younger (and counting, Marsh has taken 0 AAA ABs), with already apparent power, defense, and speed. I like Marsh too but between the two of them he has the most yet to prove.
brewcrewjazz
Boyd isn’t going anywhere. They want top 50 prospect for a back end started who shows flashes of a quality pitcher against poor hitting teams because he’s deceptive. No one is going to bite at the Tigers asking price
BasesLoaded
The Tigers are truly delusional. This would be equivalent to the Giants asking for a Top 50 prospect for Brandon Belt.
BobSacamano
Boyd has more value than Belt.Marsh wouldn’t be a top ten in the tigers farm and no where near top 50 in prospect rankings. You guys are delusional about a AA who strikes out 28% of the time. Keep him, because we’re more than happy with Matt.
macstruts
Define no where near top 50. Fangraphs has him at 74. And why do you say 28% of the time when at 21 in AA, More than Two and a half years younger than his competition, it was 22.3 percent of the time.
I think you are intentionally being disingenuous and looking for data to form a negative opinion. If you have to distort data, why use it?
In the Arizona fall league, Marsh out hit Joe Adell.
BobSacamano
I’m looking at his minor league stats SO/AB’s. He’s not an MLB.com top 100 prospect. Therefore, he’s at least 50 players away from top 50 (mlb.com). If he’s k’ing that much in aa, he would realistically k more in aaa and more in MLB. I’m not being disingenuous because these are stats and credible sources. He’s a good prospect, but in my nonprofessional opinion that ko rate is concerning.
BobSacamano
21 in AA doesn’t mean anything to me at all. Just because Angels see him as their #2, doesn’t mean he’s DET #2
OntariGro
Between his 2018 and 2019 seasons (and jumping from A+ to AA) Marsh cut his K rate from 27.7 to 22.3, while making more contact and keeping his walk rate above 10%, resulting in .040+ bumps to his AVG, OBP, and SLG.
“If he’s k’ing that much in aa, he would realistically k more in aaa and more in MLB.”
Performance does not work like that. What the above shows is that as Marsh has moved up, he’s become more adept at pitch-recognition, making contact, etc, AKA What teams look for from their top prospects.
Incidentally his 22.3% K rate was the MLB league average in 2019, and is below 2019’s average of 23%. Also, MLB’s Top Prospect list has not been updated for 2020, factoring in 2019 minor league performance (+AFL).
macstruts
No one cares what a 19 year old did in rookie ball vs what a 21 year old boy did at AA. He’s not striking out too much at AA. For a 21 year old kid, that’s entirely in the acceptable range.
I think you like Boyd. I think you are Tigers fan who has an attachment to him and values him more greatly than fans of other teams. You think he’s about to turn a corner and you do not want another team to reap the rewards.
If you think Boyd is going to break out, then a “fine prospect” is not enough. But that doesn’t mean Brandon Marsh is not a fine prospect.
BobSacamano
It depends on the person what an “acceptable k range” is. 28% in AA is below average (IMO). It might be average in the league, but what percentage of aa actually makes it to the MLB? And everything you said about Boyd is exactly why Angels inquired in the first place. Yes I like Boyd. If DET is going to trade him they would be foolish to trade him at face value, at this point. I never said Marsh wasn’t a “fine prospect”, what I said was 28% k rate is concerning. Boyd is everything DET and most teams want (cheap,controllable,ko,lefty)
OntariGro
It would be concerning if it wasn’t 5.7% higher than his actual rate.
BobSacamano
All career minor levels 1128 ABs 308 ks.. 27%..
OntariGro
Great. You should add in his high school numbers if you’re going to treat every level of baseball equally like that. His 2019 AA numbers, which is the level you’ve been referring to the whole time, and his most recent season, have him at a 22.3% K rate.
BobSacamano
AA- 92ks 360 ab %25.5
OntariGro
AA = 92ks 412 PA 22.3%
If you’re going to express so much concern about a statistic you maybe should know how it’s calculated.
BobSacamano
You’re absolutely right. Sorry
OntariGro
No worries, man! It’s just talkin’ baseball.
OtisSnord
Cool. I’ve been following this back-and-forth. I always respect a person and value their comments more when they can acknowledge an error. Means they care about getting things right.
ron cey
marsh will take over at end of Upton tenure?
OtisSnord
I have absolutely no evidence for it, but I’m wondering if Upton gets moved to 1B to open up an OF spot for Marsh sooner rather than later. Thaiss is decent but the Angels have been willing to include him in trade offers already.
goldenmisfit
Boy is not getting moved until the Detroit Tigers come back down to planet earth. All reports over the past year have indicated they have very very very high asking price for a guy coming off a 4.56 ER a season. Tigers fans and tigers management can profess all the analytics they want the bottom line is this you are not in your right mind going to give up elite prospects for a guy that is yet to pitch a full season with an earned run average yet to be under four. If calm the trade deadline he has an earned run average below his career average then maybe but not until then any team that does pull the trigger and gives up a big hall is making a huge mistake.
Hard to walk with four balls
Nonsense, the Tigers are not going to give away a MLB pitcher for some other teams’s garbage prospects; there is no asking price because the Tigers don’t need to trade him.
68tigers84
Boyd is a swing and miss type pitcher. Had 238 SO in 185 innings in 2019. Teams that have prospects that are blocked at ML level. Those teams might benefit by trading for Boyd with their blocked prospects.
OtisSnord
Boyd’s SO to BB rate was above 7 before the all star break. Afterwards, it was barely above 3. That’s part of the steep dropoff that has teams not willing to trade top prospects for him.
angt222
Tigers should stop being picky and move Boyd while they still have interested teams.
SportsFan0000
Bunch of comments from homer fans who do not know Matthew Boyd, do not know scouting, do not know baseball.
See MLB..com “Darkhorse candidates for Cy Young Award 2020”..
Boyd is listed as #2 smart money, dark horse pick for Cy Young 2020
with his Key number: 30.2% strikeout rate.
Boyd’s got a wipeout fastball-slider combo. The lefty’s 223 combined strikeouts on those two pitch types were third-most behind Cole (268) and Verlander (231). Top-tier strikeout stuff is what you want in a dark horse Cy Young candidate.
mlb.com/news/2020-cy-young-award-dark-horses.
Angels or any other club would be ridiculous not to include some of the best young talent to get Boyd who could vault them into serious playoff contention.
It would take Marsh and others for Angels to land Boyd.