As the top shortstop on the free agent market, Didi Gregorius had been widely tabbed as a candidate for a multi-year deal, even in the wake of his injury-shortened 2019 season. While multiple teams have indeed shown interest in Gregorius this offseason, he and his agents are also considering the possibility of accepting a one-year offer, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required).
There would certainly be risk in such a maneuver, though Rosenthal notes it would be a “bet on himself” move from Gregorius in the hopes of guaranteeing himself a larger multi-year deal next winter than he would this offseason. Even in the short term, it could lock in more money for Gregorius over two seasons than he would over a hypothetical three-year contract.
For example, let’s take the three-year, $42MM that MLB Trade Rumors projected Gregorius would receive on the open market. That works out to $14MM in average annual value, and there’s surely enough interest in Gregorius (especially on a one-year pact) that he would easily surpass $14MM for 2020, and likely get more than the $17.8MM value of this winter’s qualifying offers. So let’s say Gregorius signs for $18MM in 2020, and then delivers a performance akin to his 2017 (4.1 fWAR) or 2018 (4.7 fWAR) seasons with the Yankees. Such a year would surely put Gregorius in line for a qualifying offer from his new team next winter, which would land in the ballpark of $17.8MM. In a worst-case scenario, Gregorius could just accept the QO if he still didn’t like his chances in free agency, giving him roughly $35.8MM over the 2020-21 seasons — a hefty bump up from the $28MM he’d have in the same span if he accepted our predicted three-year pact.
As Rosenthal notes, the 2021-22 offseason could be heavy with star shortstops available in free agency, as Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, and Corey Seager are all scheduled to hit the open market. That would seemingly make it unlikely that Gregorius takes a two-year deal this winter, as he would be a 32-year-old shortstop competing for free agent dollars against all those younger stars. A contract offer of four or more years, meanwhile, doesn’t seem to be too realistic, as even the teams most interested in Gregorius would probably balk at guaranteeing four years to a player coming off such a lackluster platform season.
The counter to accepting a one-year deal, of course, is that Gregorius might desire long-term security after facing such a serious injury like the Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for a large chunk of 2019. Given that we’ve already seen some rather surprisingly high figures on the free agent market thus far, Gregorius could also benefit beyond our $42MM projection. The Phillies, Brewers, and Reds have already been linked to Gregorius, and it’s possible more teams could enter the fray depending on other trades, signings, or injuries.
burnt_reynolds
Moose got $64M just take the money now my dude
Kolukonu
Moose had a very good season last year and wasn’t hurt. Didi on the other hand, did not.
jayspoon
Exactly. Who knows what the market will be like in 20/21… Will it be like this year’s market or last year when no one got paid
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
Moose basically signed two prove yourself deals in which he bet on himself. Grandal bet on himself. The common theme is they were paid after betting on themselves. Perform and you’ll get paid a decent amount seeing as he plays a premium position. There’s little downside here, especially if he can find himself a QO level payday with a mutual option. 18 M offer would mean he’d have to reel in a 24/3 offer to beat the 24/3 prediction.
Marytown1
The other common theme is—-Milwaukee.
TheMick7
He was tabbed from the beginning to rebuild himself with a one year contract. I don’t know many teams that would pay Didi anything of significance the year after TJ and with decreasing metrics at age 30. That said, I think he would benefit many teams and I’m surprised there hasn’t been more activity with Didi because he should be a relatively inexpensive true SS that several teams could use, including the Yankees; Didi also gets to improves his value and gets a Moose-like offer.
costergaard2
Yankees love Didi but have have an IF logjam. Makes more sense to stay with Urshela, Gleyber, and DJ as 3B/SS/2B and platoon Voit/Andujar at 1B/DH when Stanton is in LF
southbeachbully
@costergaard2
Using DJ at 2B is a waste of one of the characteristics that made him so valuable last year. His ability to play multiple positions at a high defensive level saved the Yanks last year. Money for Cole should be the only reason he’s not brought back.
rocky7
The other side to your “makes more sense” comment is that it doesn’t.
What’s driving the vibe here in NY is that the Yankees feel that if they are successful with Cole, they will have to tighter their belt in other places of excess…but Gleyber, while a fantastic young player, is not the SS that DiDi is.
And with the grand plan to play DJ all over the diamond, keeping him at 1 position does limit the flexibility the Yankees had planned on and thrived with after DiDi’s return.
Lastly, don’t know where you guys are all getting this Andujar to first vibe, but if his glove isn’t good at 3rd, why would you EVER put him at a defensively exposing position like first base. Andujar has never played anywhere other than 3rd, majors or minors, and dreaming a transition over to first is akin to the metrics of Frazier playing LF on a regular basis…offense first and only, and defense be dammed!
Begamin
Logistically it doesnt make sense to stick with two 3B only guys (Urshela, Andujar), one SS (Gleyber), one 2B (DJ) and two 1B only guys (Voit, Ford) over, say, resigning Didi and trading one of the 3B only guys, having two SS capable players (Didi&Gleyber), two 2B capable players (Gleyber&DJ) and have DJ play 1B/2B/3B as opposed to just 2B. That way, you have more depth at every position instead of thin depth at middle infield (they have Tyler Wade that can be Util, if they find space for him on the roster) and the corners are stuck with two players each that cant play other positions.
YankeeNinja
This guy gets it. ^^^
Get Off My Mound
Not a Reds fan, but I would really like to see them sign Didi. It would make for a very interesting lineup and defensive alignment.
stubby66
If Didi takes a one year deal I think Philadelphia is the only one I see him taking simply cause of Girardi and it can become a resign with a bigger number. Now let’s say Rendon signs with the Dodgers, now if he is willing to move to third he becomes a possibility for Texaa and Washington and should get decent offer on a multi year contract.
TheMick7
I really thought Philly or the Reds would have Didi signed already. I think he’sa good fit for either team.
bigredsfan41017
It’s reported that the Reds and Didi have mutual interest!
AllinTX
Has anyone asked him if he’d be willing to move to 3B?
braves25
@AllinTX
I was wondering if he would be willing to make that move as well! There are several teams out there looking for 3B help. Could he be the answer to a team like Atl if they miss out on Donaldson?
Samuel
The problem Didi has is simple…….
MLB is awash in quality SS’s. With more coming. Examples….
The Brewers didn’t need to continue to put up with Arcia’s lack of hitting – something that used to be overlooked if a SS was good with the glove. The Rays 24 year-old SS Willy Adames began to break out late in the season and in the playoff game. One would expect the job was his for the next 4-5 years. Yet 18 year-old Wander Franco playing for their Class A affiliate is considered the best prospect in all of MLB, and he’s projected to be up by 2021.
MLB position depth run in cycles. Right now while there is an overabundance of SS’s, there is a shortage of CF’s, and a chronic shortage of quality Catchers.
southbeachbully
@Samuel
Seeing as how Didi, coming off of an off year, is considered the best SS on the market negates the idea that there’s an “overabundance” of quality SS. So while there maybe a few good SS they aren’t on the market.
JohhnyBets67
@southbeach Teams have to need a SS, genius. There is an over abundance of short stops. Tell me which team really needs a Short Stop? Cincinnati? Orioles? (as if they’re going to sign him) Philly would have to move Segura back to 2B to accommodate Didi. If you don’t see the over abundance of quality SS’s in the game you’re asleep.
Mostly the need for SS’s if from the bottom feeders who aren’t going to sign guys like Didi.
southbeachbully
@JohnnyBets67
Dude what was the Padres win/loss record last year when they signed Manny? Teams can get better in many ways. Signing FA is one of them. Right now Didi is the #1 SS on the market and there are reports that several teams are in on him. What is it your missing?
rocky7
DiDi, based on history is veteran who is proven defensively and offensively, exceptional defense and offensively he brings pop from the left side……your Willy Adames “beginning to break out”, late in the season comment doesn’t even qualify as anything close to a sure thing forward. And Santa Clause based o history is probably coming to town!
Where is MLB “awash” in quality SS’s available and “coming”…you speak as if their coming is a sure thing which if you know baseball is Neve a sure thing…for every Lindor, there are 10 defense only guys that can play SS.
Jeff Zanghi
I’m not really sure he’s worth as much as he seems like he’s going to be able to get. I mean I guess he’s a solid overall player when healthy but I honestly don’t even think he’s as good as the two years where he had a power surge with the Yankees. I could be wrong but I think it was in large part due to the friendly dimensions of Yankee Stadium and taking him out of that environment could lead to a significant drop-off in power. If that happens he essentially reverts back to a below average OBP guy with okay speed and steady enough defense. Idk but to me giving him 3/$42M seems like a lot when a guy like Jose Iglesias could probably be had for 1/$5M or 2/$10 — I mean sure Didi has a significantly higher offensive ceiling but is it really worth triple what Iglesias is worth or more? Idk – and maybe that’s a bad comp — but I’m just not entirely sold on Didi legitimately being a high-end SS at this stage of his career and coming off a rough injury-plagued season like last year.
Chris Giarraputo
I agree. I think Didi was helped by YS, THE Lineup he had to protect him and the juiced ball last 3 years. His HR’s look like long fly outs like when he was in Arizona. He is not a star nor is he a riding star. He’s on his down turn and nobody but, god knows if his elbow is going to hold up to playing SS 140+ games a year and if he will hit 25hrs or 10. He definitely is going to swing at first ball thrown every time as he has poor plate discipline. Hence why his PS is never great. He kills bad pitching and stinks against good pitching. Perfect for a borderline contender
southbeachbully
@Chris Giarraputo
So now the ball has been juiced the last 3 years? So if it’s juiced then it’s for everyone right, not just him? Cmon dude. No one was talking about it being juiced in 2017 or 2018. And if you did the research you would see that YS hasn’t been a big help.
Also, how can you say that 2019 was the start of his decline when he was obviously coming off of TJ surgery?
southbeachbully
@Jeff Zanghi
Didi’s home/road split
2015- 6 home/3 road
2016-11 home/9 road
2017- 12 home/13 road
2018-19 home/8 road
2019-6 home/10 road
The only year where he had a significant home/road split was 2018. Other than that, his power has been about even regardless of where he played.
He’s also been great with his glove and even with a shortened 2019 ranks as a top 10 SS in fWAR. If I looked at just 2016-2018 he ranks 7th.
Begamin
Thank you. I swear people say his power is helped by YS without even checking the numbers. Didi pulls all of his HRs, yes, but if when he does put a good swing on the ball theyre rarely cheapies.
Yankee Mike
Didi belongs on the Yankees. Perfect fit. Great leader. Don’t understand the delay on the Yankees part. In fact, makes me wonder why they didn’t offer the qualifying offer. Would have been a bit high, like 18 million, but only a 1 year commitment. Think about the stupid money going to Cole. This is lost in a rounding error.
capo78
Yankees have an abundance of IF. The thought process is Torres moves back to his natural position of SS and DJ becomes the full time 2B where he is most useful. As for bench pieces, they have guys like Wade who are versatile and can play the IF. Simply put, the IF is too crowded for Didi.
YankeeNinja
Yes, Torres is a natural shortstop, but the general consensus is that he is better at 2nd than short. DJ is a Gold Glove 2nd Baseman, but the Yanks flexed by having so many pieces they could move around. The simple fact is, the infield is significantly better if it’s DJ, Torres, Didi, and Urshella (1st to 3rd) than say Voit/Ford, DJ, Torres, Urshella, imo. If the Yanks can get Didi back on a one year deal and then see what’s what, I think it’s a win for both sides. The fact he has announced this makes it seem like coming back to The Bronx is almost a foregone conclusion. Huge presence in the clubhouse, great swing, defensive wizard.
southbeachbully
@capo78
DJ is most useful when he’s free to move around the IF and play at SS, 2B and 1B. Didi is in fact our BEST defensive IF and it’s not real;y debatable.
Erik
He’s not worth 10 million a year. Any team that signs him to a multi year deal above that is stupid
TheMick7
Although he has intangible qualities, like leadership, and he is projected to improve, his metrics reflect he will be slightly below league average, overall. So, your assessment is correct imo.
southbeachbully
@Erik @TheMick7
You guys are crazy. Every single report has him signing for more than $10 per on a multi-year deal. He had 4.1 and a 4.7 with great defensive metrics in 2017 and 2018. Even factoring in his 2019 he’s been a top 10 SS in WAR. Do numbers even mean anything to you guys? To say “his metrics reflect he will be slightly below league average, overall.” is blatantly contradictory to his actual numbers. What are you basing it off of?
emac22
So instead of 42 mil now you take 18 and risk 24 million dollars hoping to make an extra 10?
I’m not sure if that’s exactly right but I am sure that an 18 mil QO is far from worst case.
I agree 10 extra mil is a lot but I think I’d lock in the 42 and invest future earnings in something else as a way to make the extra 10 instead of risking 24 million that could so easily disappear or at least be reduced significantly.
If you risk 24 mil you should double your money at the very least in exchange for that much risk. Diversifying from your own physical labor also has a lot of value.
yukongold
6 years 140m. Isn’t that what Bogaerts got? Always heard he was better than Xander. Should be an easy number to get.
Mikel Grady
Cubs seem to be a good fit for him . Baez can go to 2b or Di di . Hoerner goes to outfield . If Baez leaves in 2021 hoerner goes to 2b di di ss
JoeBrady
If Didi would force Baez to go to 2B and Hoerner to go to the OF, how is he a good fit?
JoeBrady
I tend to be conservative, but I’d take the $42M, and ask for an opt out after the 2021 season. If he’s mediocre, then he wins by taking the contract. If he reverts back to star form, then he still benefits from having an opt-out in a season with less competition at SS.
Begamin
If he is considering one year deals i think the Yankees should bring him back