Jose Peraza was almost a full win worse than replacement in 2019 (-0.9 bWAR, -0.6 fWAR), but the Red Sox signed him to a one-year, $3MM deal anyhow. The reason being the Red Sox see a speedy player who can play five positions who proved his competence against left-handed pitching even in a down year, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. His .269 xBA in 2019 also points to some bad luck (he finished with an actual batting average of just .239). Overlaying his spray chart over the Fenway Park map also suggests Peraza might benefit from the dimensions in Boston. All in all, the Red Sox don’t have the financial freedom this offseason to add a sure-thing superstar, and in Peraza they see a player coming off a down year capable of reaching another gear with a fresh start in Boston. Now, with a couple days left to lock in our new year’s resolutions, let’s check in elsewhere in the American League…
- Seattle Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto did not let a blood clot scare keep him from swinging trades at last year’s winter meetings, but a year after the fact, those close to him do see changes in the man known as “Trader Jerry,” as told in this story from The Athletic’s Corey Brock. Since his stint in a Las Vegas hospital, Dipoto is taking better care of himself, sleeping more and better regulating a once-vigorous workout routine. He’s also been more collaborative with his assistant GMs, trusting them with more of the day-to-day trade discussions with other clubs. As when Jim Hendry signed Ted Lilly from his hospital bed, Dipoto’s bedside dealing has entered Mariners’ lore – but the reality is that Dipoto’s life was in danger, and without his co-workers there to help him to the hospital, there could have been a much more harrowing tale coming out of last year’s winter meetings.
- Brandon Marklund has significantly improved his stock since signing up to play baseball in New Zealand for the Aukland Tautara, per The Athletic’s Alec Lewis. Marklund caught the eye of a number of different organizations while pumping a 96mph heater for the Tautara, but it was the Royals’ Neil Burke who made the biggest push. Burke sums up his surprise in finding Marklund by saying, “What the heck is this Canadian kid who went to school somewhere in the States, who made his way out to New Zealand, who I’m watching pitch in Sydney, doing all the way out here in Australia?” The 23-year-old right-hander put up a sparkling 0.46 ERA in his first pro season stateside for the Royals’ Single-A affiliate.
rxbrgr
Brandon Muckduck
Connorsoxfan
One of the least menacing sounds in the English language.
24TheKid
It’s true.
Old User Name
The baseball world needs people like Trader Jerry. As long aa he’s GM of someone else’s favorite team, not mine. LOL
Bone19
Trader Jerry is the best thing to happen to Seattle Baseball since KGJ. Guy has passion at least! 🙂
bradthebluefish
DiPoto is doing all the right things, cleaning up the mess that he was given. No more Cano. No more King Felix. No more signing multiple 1B/DH. He’s cleaning up shop and it looks to be paying off.
dimitrios in la
Cleaning up shop sounds great and necessary—but what’s on them shelves now?
Pingleja
He’s built one of the better minor league systems in just over a year. I know that doesn’t mean everything, they gotta panout for it to mean anything. I think it’s better to have young potential than pay a bunch of old guys to be mediocre. Julio Rodriguez, Jared Kelenic, Evan White, Logan Gilbert particularly look like above average MLB level players that will be in Seattle either late this or early next year in the worst case scenario. Not to mention Justin Dunn, Justus Sheffield, kyler Lewis, and Shed Long that will contribute this year. I see them making a play at FA next off season to add the missing pieces. They’re setup to compete in 2021 and beyond.
jbigz12
I don’t understand what you have against DiPoto. He’s at least as close as Elias is. If not closer. They both started the rebuild at the same time. He’s got a rebuilt farm with 5 top 100 guys and 3-4 others on the periphery.
Plus Haniger and Marco Gonzales as trade chips or as established big leaguers. He’s not doing a half bad job at this point. He inherited a garbage farm system and tried to win with what he had. It didn’t work so he’s rebuilding. He’s done some funny things in the past but since he’s been tearing it down; all the moves look prettt sound.
Ace of Diamonds
He highhandedly destroyed the Angels farm system. He blew all our international pool money on Baldoquin and kept the Angels from signing more foreign players for 2 years. He traded Clevinger for Vinnie Pestano…
He walked away from the Angels just before the trade deadline, while the Angels were in the middle of playoff run one year after finishing with the best record in baseball.
Eppler has spent 3 years trying to rebuild what Dipoto destroyed.
houkenflouken
Didn’t Moreno have a lot of influence in those bad decisions? Part of the reason Jerry left LA was because Moreno didn’t give him the freedom he now has in Seattle to make the moves he wants.
terry g
I differ with you there. We don’t know if his trades accomplish anything just yet but clear payroll. I’m sure that was one of the ownership groups goals. Getting to the playoffs doesn’t seem to be any closer. The jury is out until we see what happens in the next few years.
jdgoat
He’s done a good job since taking over Seattle. The trades that look the worst right now for him come down to just straight up bad luck.
Old User Name
His biggest problem as I can see is by trading so much there is no continuity. Otherwise I think he’s done a pretty good job since taking over the mess JZ left behind.
JoeBrady
Continuity does mean much for bad rebuilding teams.
drfelix
Lets be honest….JackZ inherited a mess from Bavasi. Bavasi was the GM that decimated our entire Farm System in an attempt to save his job that costed us a 10 year nightmare! JackZ was highly recognized as a stellar guy that would Draft very effectively. NOT ONE draft pick of JackZ panned out, and he was the guy that selected Ackley in round 1 #2 overall pick, instead of grabbing Trout in the same draft. JackZ’s draft picks didn’t improve our team and/or our Farm System one bit! Then Dipoto comes in to see if he could flip our roster for high OBP players, and he got very close to the play0ffs for the 1st several years within a game or two. But with Houston’s farm system, and all past top draft picks coming together and becoming All-Stars at the same time when Houston moved to the AL West….Dipoto’s high OBP couldn’t compete against Houston. Dipoto & Co decided to trade away to rebuild our Farm System, and over the past year Dipoto has improved Seattle’s Farm System that was ranked #26 when he was hired…to #3 ranked according to some baseball analysts. We still have Dee Gordon to shed (no pun intended lol). And I think we should keep Seager, since 3B is our only Farm weakness. But I foresee Dipoto replicating what he did in the draft last year…loading up on more/more/more SP, and attempting to grab the best 3B prospect he can this year. He landed 3B Sheldon in round 4 or 5 last year, but the rest of his picks were all pitching. I see Seattle letting these prospects get all tested in MLB, and then in 2021/2022 if there are obvious and known positional weaknesses besides 3B I see Seattle back up to the $170m payroll in 2022 being the holes we might have on our team through FA.
Old User Name
Not sure if you’re being sarcastic or not but my point on continuity is while its one thing to make moves with a goal in mind. Be it immediate improvement or prospect capital. It’s another thing to make a lot of lateral moves. Which is something Trader Jerry has been known to do.
driftcat28 2
Loved the throwback Ted Lilly article
BobbyDarin
That’s, uh, not how WAR works.
Wilford Brimley
How, uh, does it work?
BobbyDarin
WAR shows player value in relation to the replacement level player (It’s literally in the name- Wins Above Replacement), not the average player. The average player is worth something like 2 WAR.
flippinbats79
I came here to point out the error as well. Like the Astros in a cheating contest, you best me to it.
Wilford Brimley
TC Zencka, please respond to this rebuttal!
Tim Dierkes, if TC Zencka doesn’t participate in this debate, let’s allow his contract to expire or trade him to Bleacher Report.
miltpappas
Not an Astros fan, but you want to put the cheating thing to bed? Let the Commissioner’s office handle it. I think they’re more qualified than you.
MoRivera 1999
Considering who the Commissioner is, um, no, we won’t let it go. Fans, players, teams, franchises were defrauded. Large sums of money were involved. All proven.
fits65
Hey Milt. Why are we putting the Astros cheating thing to bed? Sorry to Astro’s fans for the embarrassment, however the humiliation will continue—not get swept under the rug.
This is the biggest wound to the credibility of the game since the Black Sox scandal.
TC Zencka
You are right. I meant average in a colloquial, not statistical way, which is entirely unclear and misleading. Replacement is the correct term. Thanks for the heads up.
MafiaBass
Since the f when is -1 WAR worth 3M? They’d be better off bringing up basically anyone from Pawtucket. With that 3M, and that other dude’s 6M, they could have gotten a starter at 9M that will be better than both combined.
4 7M guys is probably better than 1 28M guy, but that gets less true as the top end guy’s price tag gets lower.
craig breslow
Smart transactions are made based on what you expect of a player in the future, not just what they have done in the past. The Sox signed Peraza because he’s a former top prospect with an interesting toolset, not because he was bad last year.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Peraza has had an OBP higher than .350 only in a single season. Be lucky if he hits .250. Expecting him to be good is a pipe dream.
DarkSide830
you dont just sign a guy based off his previous season numbers.
deweybelongsinthehall
I’m still hopeful but as has been said before, Peraza is a cheaper alternative to Brock Holt which if he signs elsewhere will be a big Sox mistake. Holt has proven he can succeed on the big stage.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Completely agree. We can’t let Holt sign elsewhere, he’s a face of our franchise. If there’s one free agent to stay, it’s him.
I think Chaim Bloom has done a poor job so far. I know it’s early, but coming in after a losing season, something should have been done by now. We still don’t know if we are competing or rebuilding next year and the longer we wait, the tougher the market becomes.
whyhayzee
It wasn’t a losing season.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
It wasn’t a winning one either. Watching two better teams in your division move on to the postseason while you have a team of overpaid guys with poor team chemistry isn’t something to be proud about.
Winning or not winning, something should be done because other teams in our division (even the Blue Jays) are getting better while we do nothing.
Bruin1012
Bloom is playing the long game this offseason. There is every indication that he is under the mandate to reduce payroll. I think what he is doing is smart it appears Boston wants to trade Price and JBJ to reset the lux tax. It is smart to wait until the free agents have signed and see if someone gets desperate for a starter. It’s a lot tougher to trade a guy like Price when there are free agents on the market. Now that most of the pitchers are off the market now we will see. It might even be smart to see what happens in Spring Training and see if a pitcher goes down on a contender. We will see but I think he has made some decent low cost additions probably nothing much but more to come. Let’s give the guy a chance.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Peraza over Holt is nothing to be proud about. I can’t wait until Holt signs elsewhere and finally gets the chance to play everyday and tear the cap off the ball. Peraza is a .250 hitter at best.
whyhayzee
It’s great how everyone knows how stupid these Red Sox moves are based on prior statistics. Why play the games? Just make it like the card game of war where you submit your lineup and the one with the higher total WAR wins the game. Done. Season over. WAR, what is it good for?
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I have no idea what you just said.
steve dolan
Absolutely nothin
nymetsking
Say it again
steve dolan
it ain’t nothing but a heart-breaker
deweybelongsinthehall
BS to all the above. Whyhayzee is supportive of what I’ve been constantly saying. Games are played on the field with people, not in a computer with software that spits out what should happen on average. I love people who measure players based on supposed value. There are many intangibles that can’t be calculated and sometimes the sum of the parts adds up to substantially more and sometimes much less. That’s why the game is played.
ellisburks
I miss Firejoemorgan. This comment would have triggered them.
MoRivera 1999
Good god, y’all
bravesfan
Peraza use to be a super highly rated prospect. I know that doesn’t mean a ton with his current production, but it’s a good indication that he has the tools to be a good ball player. I think he’s a better player than his numbers show last year. This is a good pickup for the Sox. Low risk, semi high reward possibility
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
If it’s not Brock Holt then it’s not worth it. No one is better in Boston in a utility role than him.
TeddyBallgameYazJimEd
Exact same point I came here to make…
Peraza may have upside…but that same exact upside is what you KNOW you will get from Holt. And when you see what they could have locked up Holt for on a 2yrear deal it will seem even more of a loss.
butch779988
Peraza has higher upside than Holt but a lower floor. They are banking on the upside, youth, and cost.
deweybelongsinthehall
More upside than a player who has made an all star team, can play more positions and has already proven he can succeed in Boston both on and oof the field? We don’t know what Holt and his agent are thinking. Despite everything written by everyone including me I’m wondering if there already is a deal in place but the team and Holt are waiting for other moves to first be completed. If they announce more payroll it might hurt their negotiating position in trying to peddle Price and Eovaldi. I realize Holt’s number shouldn’t be high but every little bit counts. I just can’t otherwise understand why there has been little talk about him. Just another take to consider.
AtlSoxFan
By that logic we’ll be seeing an all out effort to get swihart…. maybe refsnyder… sky is the limit.
Every year there are 30 “top” prospects with tools taken in the first round of the draft.
Reality is, some of them can never translate production to the show. A couple may become above average, and one or two will be great. But for the majority it will be a short lived utility role, if anything at all.
It wasn’t a week later when other players with similar tools and pedigree signed for a minor league contract with ST invite.
I called the move stupid when it first happened, and, I expect it to remain so but will admit im wrong if the guy gets an all star nod or something (holt did).
Reds fans all agreed in prior threads part of his problem is he doesn’t do well moving around the diamond. If you use him as a super sub like holt your production will stink. If you stick him in the same spot every day you get rewarded with almost replacement level production.
deweybelongsinthehall
If he’s your 26th player I understand if you think his upside is more than Marco Hernandez for example. But if the $3m deal is in lieu of re-signing Holt, the team is taking a huge gamble. I realize Holt is not Mookie but he is a team leader where there aren’t many, loves the City and most importantly has thrived beyond expectations in as big of a hotbed city as there is. Not many thought much of him when he was acquired from Pittsburgh. I loved his hustle when he was shuttled back and forth between Boston and Pawtucket but even I have been surprised by his on field success. Only negative has been his injuries.
merkman
My 2 cents on the M’s.
I get it. We weren’t winning enough, so we decided rather than doing the “same old thing”, we’ll tear down and rebuild. But there are a few problems with that:
1) It takes time. The M’s weren’t world beaters before, but at least we had stars that could be fun to watch. Who am I watching now? I don’t know that I watched a game last season, with Felix not Felix, and not knowing most of the rest of the guys on the field once “trader Jerry” got rid of anyone he could get “value” for.
2) Okay, we are now worse and we get higher picks. We’ve had high picks before and ended up with Ackley, etc. It happens, I get that. But we haven’t had a breakthrough prospect pan out since Griffey and Alex. With SO many misses, when are we gonna get that HR player? Because the Astros and other who built from nothing make consistently good picks. Where is ours?
3) Everyone thinks dumping payroll is the way. I say dumping payroll means other players don’t want to come here. We were in a pretty bad spot when Nelson Cruz came to town and lit a fire that made a few other players want to come here. Now Nelson is gone, most of our stars are gone, and we are left with a AA farm team without hope. Baseball is built on hope. When will we be building? I certainly haven’t seen much in the way of improvement this off-season.
Sorry. I know it’s a negative outlook. But I’m not convinced re-treading the tires is the way to a title, and I’m disappointed that any stars we had went toward prospects that may or may not pan out. I think I remember we got 6-prospects when we traded Langston away. And to the best of my knowledge, none of those 6 were any better than a broken water cooler. This team has gone from a mess, to worse, and now we need a completely new car… because this one has a bent axle and looks like shit.
24TheKid
Amazing, [almost] every word of what you just said is wrong.
Stevil
You don’t get it. This wasn’t a complete tear-down, it was a modified rebuild. Haniger and Gonzales were and are in demand, yet they’re still in Seattle. Teams that tear-down trade everything of value. Seattle didn’t do that. Worth noting, Dipoto never traded a prospect he felt was potentially crucial for the future (Rodriguez, White, and Lewis, specifically) when everyone was screaming for him to do so at the deadline in 2018.
But you’re actually complaining about the stars who were traded? Robinson Cano, owed 120m, coming off a PED suspension in his mid-30’s, Jean Segura owed around 60 million and having been a major clubhouse problem? Diaz was the only star who didn’t have baggage, but he helped net two elite prospects and shed Cano–and neither had great 2019’s.
2020 is probably going to be a tough year in way of wins and losses. But this will be a huge year for integrating and developing players at the MLB level. Crawford will be in his first full season, though he saw significant time last season. White will be the first baseman early, if not immediately; Shed Long at 2B. Jake Fraley and Braden Bishop will get their opportunities in CF while Kyle Lewis gets a shot a left. Sheffield and Dunn will be in the rotation fairly early, while Gilbert is expected in June or July, plus a number of relievers, including Delaplane and Gerber, either of which could end up being the future closer.
You seem to be lumping everything from the past and pinning it on Jerry, but what we saw and what we’re seeing right now are two completely different things. Kelenic and Rodriguez are both top-25 prospects. Gilbert is top-50; White top-60. etc. It should be clear to everyone what the plan is by now, and things are going well in that regard. There is a ton of reason for hope.
Oh, and regarding that Langston trade, there’s weren’t 6 prospects in that return. there were 3 players: Randy Johnson, Brian Holman, and Gene Harris.
Rosstradamus
Randy Johnson=Best Broken Water Cooler EVER!!!
foreverseahawk
brian holman , gene harris didnt do all that much for the mariners but randy johnson was a huge steal in the langston trade
houkenflouken
If your only reason for this rebuild not working is that you have no knowledge of the players we have on the active roster then that is a terrible reason. We have a lot of interesting talent on the squad and talented guys in the minors.
All it takes is taking some time to research numbers and articles (boring, I know) online to get an idea of where we’re at.
Don’t be ignorant.
cygnus2112
Somehow the Royals have stumbled, lucked, AND FINALLY applied some of the positive acumen that was on display in the early days of the Moore regime to quickly amass quite a stable of young arms in the last 3 years.
Out of Singer, Kowar, Bubic, Lynch, Bowlan, Cox, Tillo, Hakke, Marsh, Gambrell, Morel, Marklund, etc, history shows not all will make it. However that’s a foundation that’s starting to solidify as hard as rock.
There is light at the end of the tunnel!
BPax
Dipoto has done a great job of flushing the failed past and retooling for the future. Remember, we had a youth movement before, just like the Astros. But instead of names like Altuve, Springer, Bregman, Correa, etc, we had Smoak, Ackley, Miller, Zunino, Franklin, Saunders, etc.
fits65
Dipoto was frustrated at the winter meetings as Fred Wilpon had body guards around Brody salesman so that Dipoto couldn’t get another one on one meeting.
One more fleecing of the Mets and the M’s would have become a .500 team in 2020.
Rumor has it that Jerry invited Mr. Smiles for New Year’s. Fingers crossed M’s fans;)
spareman7 2
I think not signing Brock Holt will come back to haunt the Red Sox. He has done everything that the Sox have asked and needed. With the cutting payroll I believe this will be a really down year and players that have escape clauses next year will use them if I’m right.
deweybelongsinthehall
Agree on Holt but the only one of substance with an opt out next year that I can think of is JDM who will be a year older.