Ten players received $17.8MM qualifying offers this winter. The clock is now ticking on their decisions to accept or decline, with a final call due one week from today. In many cases, the QO is quite easy to spurn. For players of a certain quality level, there just isn’t much downside to saying no — even if that means dragging draft compensation with you onto the market. Even when the market doesn’t developed as hoped, it’s usually possible to beat or exceed the QO value. Last year, Craig Kimbrel secured a mid-season, multi-year deal while Dallas Keuchel earned a bit more than the QO rate for the time he spent in the big leagues in 2019.
That said, there are risks to rejecting the qualifying offer for qualifying offer recipients — even those that seem fairly obvious candidates to reject it. Ian Desmond, Mike Moustakas, Dexter Fowler, and Nelson Cruz are among those that have followed Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew in stumbling into some of the pitfalls of the system.
This year, as usual, there’s a slate of players that won’t give the qualifying offer a second thought. And there are a few that will at least need to ponder how they’ll be treated on the market if they say no.
Here’s this year’s list …
- Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
- Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
- Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros
- Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves
- Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins
- Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals
- Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
- Will Smith, RP, Giants
- Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
- Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets
There’s virtually no chance of Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, or Wheeler settling for a one-year, $17.8MM payday when their market outlook is so strong. (But we’ll include them in the poll anyway.) There’s at least some argument for each of the other players to consider it.
Abreu is perhaps the most obvious option to run into choppy open-market waters if he declines. But there’s also every expectation that he’ll remain with the White Sox in one manner or another, so he could even reject it and just keep talking about a slightly lengthier pact (if one isn’t reached within the next week, as seems likely).
Excellent as Smith has been, he’s a relief pitcher. Much as there’s a newfound appreciation for the value of high-leverage arms, there’s still also an unwillingness to go too big in terms of contract length in the current market climate. There should be widespread interest in the southpaw, but perhaps teams will balk at the draft pick. It seems reasonable to think Smith can at least land a multi-year arrangement, particularly with Aroldis Chapman staying in New York before free agency kicked off, but that $17.8MM single-season salary still holds appeal. The incomparable Chapman is earning $16MM annually over three seasons on his new arrangement. Perhaps Smith will just shrug and count his blessings to be paid for one season like almost no reliever before him. (Wade Davis earned $18MM in 2019.)
It’s tougher to see Odorizzi or Ozuna following that same logic, but not impossible. The former just turned in a much better campaign than he did in his prior two seasons, which cuts both ways. Perhaps now is the time to cash in on that multi-year deal. But there are also some shades of Jeremy Hellickson, who took a QO out of fear that the market wouldn’t reward his strong results. Odorizzi’s peripherals look to be in better shape, it ought to be noted.
Ozuna seems to be a safer bet on the open market as a youthful hitter. But look back at that group of players that have really been bitten by the QO and you’ll see a bunch of position players, some of them relatively young at the time they reached the market. Teams may be somewhat more hesitant to do lengthy pitching contracts, but they’ve proven willing to bail out hurlers with heftier deals as well, likely reflecting the greater need for depth in that area and ease of knocking in-house pitchers down the depth chart when a new one is added.
Despite my best efforts, our polling system seems unwilling to enable a multiple-choice setup. Instead, we’ll settle for asking how many players you anticipate taking the offer this year:
(Poll link for app users. )
Hey Jeff, the poll only allows you to select one player (or technically I should say one option since one of the choices is No player will accept jt)
For the record I picked Will Smith and I think he’s the only one who do takes it. But letting you know in the event other people want to pick multiple players.
Same is happening to me as well. I’m on the mobile site.
Unfortunately, there’s something screwy going on with the poll function. I tried three times and the multiple choice function just isn’t working.
So … we’re backing down to a different version of the poll. Apologies to all!
No option for greater than 5
There’s a higher likelihood that I become a Cardinals fan, and that’s never going to happen.
Well my disdain for the Reds matches that percentage. Gotta have balance.
If they accept the QO, that’s a pretty big increase for Smith, Ozuna and Wheeler. Not saying they couldn’t get more in a 3 year deal but a big jump from their 2019 salaries.
I’d say there’s no chance Wheeler even considers a QO. Maybe ozuna or Smith but you’d have to think he could find a multi year deal also. Maybe if he wants to head into FA coming off a stronger year he’d roll the dice. But I doubt that also. I really only see Abreu as a guy with a significant chance to accept. I guess Odorizzi as well but MLBTR seems to think he’ll get a much better deal. I wouldn’t pay 18 mil a year for a.5 inning starter but that’s just me
As a Cardinals fan. I guess I’m one of few who would like to see Marcel Ozuna stay in St. Louis as he obviously would like to do. I really don’t see the likes of John Mozeliak reaching out to Ozuna for a team friendly-practical- multi year contract. That in mind, I hope Ozuna takes the Qualifying offer-has a good 2020- and then strikes a multi year deal. I’d be the best thing he could possibly do for himself!!! In 2021, the Cardinals couldn’t attach a QO to him. They’d either have to sign him or let him go on the free agent market with no QO attached for 2022.
I think Ozuna wants out of STL and I think STL wants him gone. I heard it wasn’t even a slam dunk that they were going to give him a QO because they didn’t want to be stuck with him. I doubt he would take it
Ozuna has publicly said he wants to remain.
Why wouldn’t the Cardinals resign Ozuna? They’ve publically stated that he’s one of their offseason targets, and they couldn’t do much better in replacing him in LF via free agency, a reasonable trade, or with any of their internal options (who are already going to be competing over CF next year). Maybe Castellanos would be an overall upgrade, but that’s about it. Certainly, part of the reason they gave him the QO is that they’d love for him to accept it and return for another year at a reasonable salary while they further develop their outfield prospects.
That being said, there’s also plenty of incentive for Ozuna to accept the QO, as the Cardinals may be the only team willing to give him a multi-year offer close to $17.8M in AAV with draft pick compensation tied to him. At his age, he should be more focused on maxing out his annual salaries, and if he feels he can’t get something at least close to $17.8M per year in this market, he should take that salary for next year and reenter the market next season unencumbered by a QO while still just 30 years old.
I disagree. I feel there’s an extremely solid chance he accepts. It’s a Boras driven market this year (slow) and he’s probably the 5th or 6th best pitcher available. Also, he’s coming off a very inconsistent season and still profiles as more potential than proven return.
If you were Wheeler, what option puts you in the best position to make the most money over the next four years of your prime:
A) Guarantee year one is 17 million (more than he’d get per year on a multi year deal), pitch well and come back next winter without the QO and with less competition.
B) Hope that you get an offer and don’t turn into Dallas Keuchel.
Yes, he risks a large guarantee if he gets hurt, but consider two things: 1) His bar is low in terms of production. Merely staying healthy allows him to get what he would have gotten this year, but with that extra year at 17 million 2) By taking the 17 million he wrecks the Mets budget and it puts pressure on Brodie to try and sign him to a back-loaded deal.. . .
Taking all that into consideration, I think there’s every reason in the world for him to jump on it,
Agree in principle, but with his injury history, I have to think cashing in now would be where his mind is. Looking ahead to next offseason, the top SP’s look to be Bauer, Kluber, Paxton, Ray, Tanaka, Stroman, and Quintana. Pretty weak.
Wheeler looks like a guy with more upside not less. Keuchel looked to be a declining pitcher. I think he gets himself at minimum 65 million bucks. Can’t see anyway in hell he accepts a QO.
I hear you, but he’s been a work horse the last two years and what happens if he heads into spring training without a team and THEN his elbow starts to bark? I don’t have a reason to feel that would happen, but it’s something that could happen with a guy like him.,
Cashing in now by taking the 17 and trying to force the Mets into a long term deal before he throws another pitch might be his safest way to cash in now.
Upside yes, but he’s also someone who’s pitched a LOT and never totally figured it out. 65 million I think is Wheeler maxing out, mainly because the teams that can overpay have better options. Now Hamels says he’s willing to take a pillow contract,
I think Wheeler’s nuts to walk away from the QO. Look at Daniel Murphy as another example…. if he had taken the offer, he’d have been a FA right after an MVP caliber year and made WAY more money.
That’s a risk.Nathan Eovaldi got 67.5 million for a postseason coming off not 1 but 2 TJ’s. That deal isn’t looking so hot but he had multiple teams bidding on him. Wheeler’s track record is stronger and he’s pitched on one of the least analytically inclined teams in the big leagues. I can’t imagine what a team like Houston could do with Wheeler. I think there’s mini Cole upside there. Lots more than he’s show in NY. Someone will give him a hell of a lot more than 17.5 million. And honestly what is he risking by declining? Are you telling me you don’t think In the worst case scenario the Astros, Yankees or another team wouldN’t give him 17.5 million for a season? The same team that gave JA happ that for 2 years?
The Padres gave Garret Richards 15.5 MM for essentially one season while he rehabs from TJ. I don’t see a risk in the world for Zack Wheeler declining. Jake odorizzi? Yeah that’s a different story.
I feel like Abreu or Smith would be the only players who would consider it. It’s a pretty solid 1 year salary and would give each a chance to hit the open market next season without the threat of a qualifying offer.
I’d rate in order of the likelihood of accepting:
1. Smith
2. Ozuna
3. Abreu
I’d rank Abreu 2nd or even first if there wasn’t such a high possibility of him signing an extension before the deadline. I don’t think any of the other players would consider it for a second.
Excellent article. My take is that all of these players will reject the QO as there will be some team who will be willing to exceed the total dollar figure for each player plus draft pick compensation, even if not a good idea- see Ozuna.
I’m proposing a different question related to the QO list: Which of the players listed will have a new deal announced prior to the end of the 10 day period?
A couple of these guys should, at least I think they should.
Little surprised so many people say Will Smith over Abreu … I do agree though both will ultimately take it
Will Smith takes it! He’s been damn good but most of the teams that could afford to better the QO can’t afford to do so this year. I say this and then there is some team like Padres, Rangers, or Mariners that over reach and regret the decision by year two of the deal.
If Will Smith was a starter maybe so. But, the padres have a strength if fully healthy. Giving a reliever a qo is stupid imo
Well, it’s only stupid if you wouldn’t want him back for another year at that salary, and that may be what the Giants want when they have so much money coming off their books.
I do agree that any non-closer reliever who gets a QO should just accept it, since there’s no way they’ll get anywhere near that kind of yearly money on the open market while tied to draft compensation. Even established closers in Holland and Kimbrel wound up regretting it! If Smith declines it, he’ll wind up taking either a huge pay cut compared to the QO amount (which is still regrettable even if he gets a multi-year deal), or he’ll wind up missing part of the season and a good portion of his potential new paycheck by holding out like Kimbrel did.
at least 3-4, unless Abreu and Ozuna are extended. those two, Smith, and one of Wheeler and Odorizzi should.
It’s amazing to see the various Contract guesses going on right now. If I was a team owner I wouldn’t give 7 year deals to any of these free agents. Furthermore, Odorizzi, Abreu, and Will Smith should accept the QO in my eyes. I certainly wouldn’t give those 3 more than 3 years and $30M and wouldn’t even give that if I had to give up a 1st round pick.
I respect and understand the players going for all the money they can get but these idiot owners are getting smarter about these horrible deals
Abreu led the AL in RBI’s.. incredibly consistent. A Top clubhouse presence.. Best FA 1b available by a long shot and you think that’s worth 10 mil a year? The guy always gets the job done and he will be even better in 2020. Facts
RBIs are meh and bat only 1b who can’t play any other position are relatively easy to replace. All those stats you cited equate to a 1.9 fWAR. Yeah. 3/30 is my max offer. Or 1 yr/$17.8M. If not he can walk
You can’t say he’ll be better in 2020 is facts. He very well decline. He should take the QO if he can’t find a long-term solution with Chicago.
Yeah and whatever team gets him ought to go get Albert Pujols and his 93 RBIs to hit behind him! .If Jose Abreu At 33 gets a guaranteed 30 million bucks he did just fine.
Also the worst defensive 1B in baseball and not a good baserunner. 2 yr/ 28 million should wrap him up for the Chisox. Thats his true value.
I’d edge slightly higher at 2/30, 17 mil 3rd year option, 4m buyout. One of the rare instances where a player’s market value is so close to the qualifying offer line. Interested to see what the pitchers get. All the starters will turn it down and all will get minimum 4 year deals. Doubt any of them top 90m, though.
Excluding Cole and Strasbourg from that group, naturally. Cole is getting 250. Stras probably over 160.
No brainer for Smith unless he wants freedom.
Possible for Wheeler, Ozuna, Odorizzi, and Abreu with a strong suggestion for Ozuna in my opinion. Don’t know much about the others.
How does it work for the offering team if the player signs for less than $50 million?
Would love for Strasburg to languish on the market for a long time and get less than $100 million.
There is almost no way Strasburg gets under $100 million, remember Harper and machado had to wait a while but still got $300 million deals
I agree but I would love to see it happen.
The only way he gets less then $100,000,000 is if it’s a 1-3 year deal. He’s gonna get paid.
The $50M figure only matters if the offering team receives revenue sharing. It has no effect on the teams of any of the bubble players you mentioned. (At least I don’t think the Twins get revenue sharing, do they?)
I think Abreu will, with Ozuna, and Will Smith being borderline.
I can see Ozuna, Smith, and Odorizzi taking the QO
Smith and Ozuna should take the QO. Both are young enough and hopefully healthy enough to land a lucrative, long-term deal next offseason when teams could sign them without losing a draft pick. With teams hesitating about parting with the pick, I doubt their AAV (if signing this year) will exceed the QO. Plus, guess what guys, you’ll be making “f%&# you” money and you’re set for life if you pull a Felipe Vasquez.
There is no way Ozuna lands a long term deal.
He’s not even 29 years old and the Dodgers gave out 55 million over 4 years to the perennially injured AJ Pollock just last year. Mccutchen got 3 years at 32 years old. I think A 3 year deal is certainly possible. Whether or not that will turn out well is a different story.
You’re nuts. He’s in his prime years, has the tools, has a history of performing above average… I’m a Giants fan and I’d be thrilled to get him on a3-year, $45 million deal. I think it’s about $10 less than he’ll actually get.
That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes the offer and tries again without the QO attached and hope to play better in 2020.
Abreu and Smith would be fools to not take that offer.
Ozuna might want to as well, although I can see a team banking on a rebound risking the pick for him.
if nobody takes it, ill gladly take the 17.8 million.
Come on don’t be greedy, split it with me .
Will Smith & Zack Wheeler look like obvious choices to accept based on position & history. Jake Odorizzi might accept it as well but not sure. The rest are surely to decline. Just a hunch.
Agreed, I voted 1 for Will Smith bc he isn’t worth $17.8MM for one year. But Wheeler should take it, no team is going to want to pay him on a long term deal, with his injury history and just ok results AND give up a draft pick to sign him over that amount. But I think Wheeler will ultimately decline it.
I’d like to see the QO changed to a one time use on a players first time through FA. I take issue with a situation like Dallas K. and Josh Donaldson. Players signing a 1 year rebound contract or forced into cause of a previous QO hurting their FA and then being nailed again with it.I understand it was to help a team recoup something from losing a player to FA but it’s broken, clearly.
Keuchel isn’t eligible for a QO and didn’t get one.
I assume they’re talking about last year’s QO for Keuchel
@andy That would make no sense. Keuchel was a first time free agent last season.
@Who Players can only be offered a QO once in their career. m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer
Um, that is how it works. A player can only be hit with the QO once. It’s just that the rule has only been in effect during the current CBA, so plenty of older veterans are still getting hit with it at this point.
Smith, Odorizzi, and Ozuna
Odorizzi, Abreu, and maybe Smith should all strongly consider it.
Odorizzi should, unless he wants to be this years Keuchel. He could sign with a team that is already grabbing a type A free agent. But I don’t think there are a lot of teams that are going to give huge money and a draft pick for him.
Smith may grab security at lesser money.
I think Abreu likes Chicago, but will make a deal.
I’m gong to say one.
Abreu
Smith
Ozuna
Odorizzi
Abreu, Smith and Ozuna over Odorizzi.
There’s no way smith beats that with a draft pick attached. He needs to take it. Odorizzi probably should too. He’s not in the top five sp’s on the market and should take it and hit next year’s market without the draft pick.
Smith and ozuna are in serious trouble if they don’t take the offer. I can’t see ozuna getting for years, or anything over 50 mil, plus a draft pick.
The $50M part doesn’t matter, since the Cardinals and Giants don’t get revenue sharing. The real question is if Ozuna can get close to $17.8M per year on a multi-year deal in free agency with a draft pick attached to him. That is indeed questionable, although the Cardinals themselves may be willing to resign him to that kind of contract. It could go either way for Ozuna, both as to whether he accepts, and as to whether he regrets it if he turns it down.
Smith, I 100% agree.
The aforementioned Smith but I think there’s a shot for Odorizzi, too. This year’s pitching class is very deep, the best in several years.
Odorizzi could make a high one year salary then position himself near the top of next year’s class.
I’m not sure why anyone thinks Wheeler will take a QO. He’s going to get 5 years at 90+ million dollars.
Neither Wheeler nor Odorizzi have the track record of Dallas Keuchel and no signed him until after the draft this year. Things like that will not go unnoticed. Same thing with Will Smith vs. Craig Kimbrel only a LOT more true. Abreu and Ozuna will either accept or end up resigning with their current teams.
Wheeler has stuff and is trending upward. The exact opposite of Keuchel.
Exactly mac. I don’t see how you can compare those situations at all. Comping Wheeler and Smith to Kimbrel and Keuchel’s situation is just not a 1 to 1 comparison at all. You had two guys last season who asked for the absolute moon. Not only did they come in and not back down from their initial ask but they had also shown signs of decline. If that’s not a recipe for failure; ’m not sure what is.
If Zack Wheeler asks for 100+ million and doesn’t back down all offseason, sure he might have a problem there. Or if Will Smith asks for 70 million all offseason he might have some issues as well. If they realize their market and don’t ask for the moon they’ll do much better than Kimbrel and Keuchel.
I could see Smith banking the QO cash and trying again next season but if he doesn’t I don’t think he’d have a problem finding himself a 3/45 or possibly better.
Don’t get the Wheeler attraction. Not that he’s bad it just seems like there is all this chatter about the guy. I don’t think he’s anything special. Rotational piece but more of a depth piece if you ask me
Depth is probably the wrong term. Middle-back rotation guy. Not worth throwing a bunch of money at. Hopefully for teams sake they have a similar guy in house for a whole lot less
Wheeler, if/when healthy, has some of the best stuff in baseball. He has a solid approach, good mechanics and never melts down mentally. The Mets pitching coaches have simply failed to get the most from his ability.
If he goes somewhere else with quality guidance, a fresh start will do wonders for him. No team in baseball couldn’t use his skill set.
The coaches are the reason Wheeler has underachieved for 6 years? Wow, yeah?
How about no.
Wheeler’s lack of true success falls on Wheeler, not the coaches.
Yeah I’m sorry even but even by traditional measures a guy just pitched 196 innings of 3.96 ERA baseball w 196 K’s is not a backend starter. The year before? 185 innings of 3.3 ERA baseball and a 9 K/9.
3.2 FIP /3.48 FIP respectfully. If you want to
Teams do not get that out of #4 starters or “depth” pieces. And That’s if you assume that Wheeler can’t unlock more.
Especially in this day and age of the quick hook. How
Many pitchers do you think even threw 195 innings this year? Let alone those with peripherals that suggested low 3 results. He’s a #2 starter in my eyes. Probably a #3 in a good rotation with the potential to be more.
Not quite sure what happened w the grammar up there. But I don’t see how even the most traditional fan could see Wheeler as a back end starter. He’s posted results that back end starters simply do not give you the last 2 seasons. All of that with the one of the leagues worst defensive teams playing behind him.
#4 starters don’t give you nearly 200 innings of quality baseball like Zack Wheeler does. And that’s if you think he doesn’t improve at all getting out of NY.
Teams don’t have similar guys sitting around in house. I don’t understand how anyone could absolutely hate him. Maybe you hate him for 80-100 million? That’d be reasonable. But for anything less I have a hard time seeing red flags.
Ozuna is interesting. I think he’ll resign with Cardinals but it’ll be more about security and staying with the Cardinals than maximizing value. As someone else mentioned I’d accept the QO and bet on myself having another 2019 type year vs 2018. I’m not sure people trust his production projections but another year and getting QO off his back and hed get a nice payday. He’s not up there in age where he can’t afford to do that. That being said I get why he’s take the bird in hand. But I doubt the Cards offer more than a few years and that will put him past the prime years for a long term pact. Sign the QO the Cardinals would be happy and he can put together another good year and 2018 will seem like a distant memory
I’m shocked at how many people forget Ozuna was playing hurt in 2018. His 2019 performance should be considered the baseline for his 2020 projections.
I am befuddled as to why teams, especially those penny pinchers, ‘balk’ at losing a draft pick. Honestly, the cost of signing a high draft pick, the years you will have to wait for that player to develop combined with the 1% chance of that guy ever becoming an impact player makes me wonder why more teams just don’t go with PROVEN, successful players who have already established their worth.
All one has to do is glance over any year’s draft to see that MAYBE 10 out of all those drafted even make the majors, let alone become all stars. Add to that that every team will try to work trades giving other teams a chance to select players after 2 or 3 seasons in the minors who have shown what they can and cannot do.
Draft pick compensation or loss is highly over rated, in my honest opinion.
logically you are correct. But teams have an idea who may be available in the second round, and that’s probably a player they may want to give up.
I am befuddled as to why teams, especially those penny pinchers, ‘balk’ at losing a draft pick.
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It’s dependent on the type of FA you are picking up. If you are signing Cole, then the value of the pick increases his overall cost by something like 1%. If you are signing someone like Abreu, then the value of the pick increases the overall cost by closer to 10%.
It’s a lot like a trade. If I’m trading for Acuna, and the Braves decide to ask for Dalbec, it is unlikely to derail the process. If I am trading for a setup guy, and they ask for Dalbec as a throw-in, the answer is likely no..
Will Smith, maybe as well Abreu
-0-. The only one that is close is Abreu, and I think a $30M/2 deal is almost a formality at this point. If the WS are looking to break out this season, it would be short-sighted to add more holes to the lineup.
Abreu should accept the QO and try to work out a longer deal with the WSox. Lower AAV, but more money.
He’s exactly the type of player who’s punished by the QO—big market contending teams are set at 1B/DH, and rebuilding teams won’t want to lose the draft pick.
Owwww my glands
Only guy I see accepting is Odorizzi
The qualifying offer system is broken and ineffective.
It is true that draft picks and prospects are more highly valued now. That is the product of the teams embracing sabermetrics and that older players give the same output as younger players, but for a lot more money.
But even then, teams used to be much more likely to sign free agents that had been offered arbitration.
But now that there is a very specific price tag attached to it, it means that only a few players will receive an arbitration offer. Because there are fewer of those players on the market, and because of how MLB has structured how a team gains or loses a draft pick by signing one, the perceived value of draft picks has skyrocketed.
A long time ago, in a ballpark far, far away, it used to be that pretty much any player that the team would like to keep, or that they knew was good enough that they would prefer a multi-year deal over a one year deal, was offered arbitration.
If you were a team and you signed a free agent who was offered arbitration, you lost a pick. Sure there was additional factors such as the players grades for their pick value, but in general teams were used to doing that 1 for 1 of sign a player, lose a pick. Top 10 picks were protected, but they would probably gain a pick somewhere else so it didn’t matter as much.
The teams ‘hurt’ by it the most were the big spenders such as the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, etc… But they were the ones who the system was designed to target in the first place, so it didn’t really matter.
Now that there is a very small pool of arbitration free agents, there is no way to recompense or recapture value after you sign one. So you better damn want that player to do so. He has to be good and at a price you can get value at. Otherwise, why take the risk?
MLB and the MLBPA need to re-evaluate the system, and come up with a new one. Either go back to the old, or change it entirely.
Instead of tying it to a player having to sign, why not just do it automatically. If you had a player more than 1 year, and he becomes a free agent, and he is graded in the top X % of players that year, then you get an Xth round supplemental pick.
You can only gain a pick off of a player that has played for you once every 5 years. That player has to not join your team again until the draft in order to qualify for it. So no sign and trades or farming players for picks.
If you resign that player, perhaps you don’t get the pick after all. But that means that you can get it the next year.
This also means you get the pick even if the player retires.
And by making it that you have to have the player for multiple years, it means they have to be a key franchise player and not a 1 off free agent.
It would definitely encourage more long term contracts, that is for sure.
Smith and Abreu are likely. Ozuna is a possibility.