The Phillies’ pair of playoff misses in 2018-19 prompted a managerial change, and with veteran skipper Joe Girardi now at the helm, postseason expectations are even higher. With those postseason aspirations comes the expectation of an active offseason — a topic which general manager Matt Klentak discussed with Joe DeCamara and Jon Ritchie on the 94WIP Midday Show yesterday (link includes full audio). Unsurprisingly, bolstering the rotation is a key goal for the Phils.
“We’ve built a pretty solid core, we think, on the position-player front,” said Klentak. “So I think it makes sense for us to look to pour some more resources, and our time and attention, into improving our run prevention. That starts in the starting rotation.”
Aaron Nola will once again head up the Phillies’ starting staff in 2020, and Klentak said within the interview that Jake Arrieta is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training after undergoing August surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow. (The hope, of course, is that better health from Arrieta will lead to better results than 2019’s 4.64 ERA in 135 innings.) Beyond that pairing, 25-year-old righty Zach Eflin seems likeliest to have a tentative rotation spot, although he briefly lost his starting gig in 2019. The team’s other primary starters in 2019 — Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Drew Smyly and Jason Vargas — either struggled greatly (Pivetta, Velasquez), have since departed via free agency (Smyly) or both (Vargas).
At bare minimum, it’d seem the Phillies have two rotation vacancies to address. The good news is that this year’s free-agent market is deeper than many recent offseasons in terms of starters. Fans, however, shouldn’t necessarily hang their hopes on Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg or Zack Wheeler coming to town. While Klentak didn’t firmly decree that the team won’t sign a player that has rejected a qualifying offer, he implied that the organization will need to stop doing so at some point.
“I’m more bullish on the farm system than some,” the GM explained when asked about improving his minor league talent base. “One of the things we’ve got to try to do, if we can, is to not forfeit draft picks, and that’s hard when you’re fishing in the deep end of the free-agent pond. But we lost our second-round pick last year and our second and third the year before. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but that’s where Scott Kingery comes from. That’s where Spencer Howard comes from. That’s where Connor Seabold comes from. … We’ve got to try to hang onto that as much as we can.”
Again, it’s not a firm declaration that such a move won’t happen. The Phillies certainly have the payroll capacity, in both the short- and long-term, to add a high-end arm on the open market, and they’ve clearly been willing to make draft sacrifices recently. But if the preference is to maintain as much draft capital as possible, the team could also look to non-qualified free agents to bolster the staff. Cole, Straburg, Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner and Jake Odorizzi are the five starters that received (and will likely reject) qualifying offers.
Reigning NL ERA leader Hyun-Jin Ryu was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, though, and the Cubs opted not to extend a QO to old friend Cole Hamels, who just yesterday expressed interest in a return to Philly. Other notable free-agent names include Dallas Keuchel, Michael Pineda and Rick Porcello, among many others.
Beyond the pitching staff, Klentak briefly touched on some notable points pertaining to the lineup. McCutchen, like Arrieta, is expected to be ready for day one of Spring Training after suffering a season-ending ACL tear back in June. Barring setbacks, he’ll reclaim a spot in the outfield, but the composition of that unit is in many ways dependent on the status of Odubel Herrera, who sat out the final 85 games of the season under a domestic violence suspension.
Klentak was noncommittal on Herrera’s future when asked, instead focusing his response on the competition that arose in center field during his absence. Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn and Kingery impressed in center, per the GM. Kingery, in particular, drew extensive praise from Klentak, who noted that the 25-year-old’s versatility is not only a luxury for the manager but for the front office.
“If we’re looking to add a bat, for instance, we don’t have to look at just one position,” said Klentak. “We can look at a variety of different spots, knowing that Scott Kingery can not just capably, but masterfully, fill in defensively just about anywhere. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say he’s our best defensive second baseman, shortstop, third baseman and center fielder.”
The Phillies have a pair of trade/non-tender candidates at second base (Cesar Hernandez) and third base (Maikel Franco) in addition to the aforementioned uncertainty in center field, making that comfort with Kingery at four different positions particularly noteworthy. That creates a relatively blank canvas for Klentak and his staff when looking to improve the lineup and/or the defense. As is the case with the rotation, Klentak will have virtually innumerable avenues to explore, setting the stage for another offseason of heavy lifting for the Philly front office.
The Phillies are going to have to go after at least on starter with a QO attached (one would think), since they need to fill two roles. I doubt they could get and substantial return for Hererra, Franco, or Hernandez, especially when it comes to pitching.
On position players, I hope the go after Moose to plat 3b/2B. It will give Bohm some time to be evaluated and gives them a bat from the left side.
Herrera, Franco and Hernandez combined won’t get you much, maybe a mid level prospect. Hernandez is the only one who is a true major leaguer and he’s not very high with his baseball IQ.
No, they won’t. You’re also absolutely correct about Hernandez as well. He has the physical tools but he is hampered by what is between his ears. He’s the only one I would figure that they might want to tender and attempt to flip, but the benefits may not be there.
If they tender and try to flip him, they are stuck with him. He projects to earn 10-11M in arbitration next year. He would be (and was) hard to flip at half that value. That ship has sailed. He has ZERO value to the Phillies. When they non-tender, he’ll sign a shirt team deal at well under 5M per.
herrera i believe is stuck in philly until he at least rebuilds some value but he’s also a useful player to have if his bat returns to previous levels considering quinn’s injury history and haseley’s youth/uncertainty. hernandez is a probable non-tender imo. i think if franco could still be a useful bench piece if he gains so positional flexibility(1B and maybe LF). franco could work in a platoon of sorts with moose at 3rd. none of those players will fetch anything more than a lottery ticket
I doubt he ever plays again for us. They’ll cut him if they can’t trade him.
based on what? they’ve continually supported him and he still has the talent he had when they signed him to what,at the time, was believed to be a discount
Anybody they add is a welcome addition, hopefully Girardi can figure out what to do with Velasquez, Piveta and Efflin. Plenty of good options for pitchers if you don’t want one with a QO attached but go after one of them, Gerrit Cole!
Eflin was pretty good last year outside of when he was dealing with the elbow issue that somehow slipped under the radar, and after he stopped listening to Chris Young it seems. VV and Pivetta need to move to the pen full time and work on their craft in the minors for at least a few months. if they were kept down in AAA last year there would have been no issue. the fatal flaw was recalling both too quickly.
efflin has promise if he can shake the injury bug. consistency has been his major problem. i dont see pivetta becoming anything other than a swingman. VV has the arm that front offices dream about but between injuries, inconsistency and stamina he hasnt put it all together. i still think he could work in the bullpen, whether in a longman role or potentially a backend role. i think they look to him as the longman to start to year but if he proves his worth could see him in a 6th/7th inning role by mid season but obviously if ur looking to contend u cant bank on that
I’ll be happy with any free agent starting pitcher to be honest, but as long as Odubel Herrera is out of here, I’ll consider it a victory. That man has to go.
Agreed. And it’s not because of his personal life and off the field issues either. Since his OBP streak has ended, his play has been downright putrid. He’s had the production of a bench player for a season and a half. He’s shown nothing on the field that warrants a look over Haseley, Kingery, or even Quinn.
I’d rather see how Haseley adjusts now that he’s seen significant MLB pitching. Hopefully he has a second year similar to Kingery.
“He’s had the production of a bench player ”
Bench player on a bottom division team.
Exactly.
Herrera is owed $17.7 MM over the next two season, plus a $2.5MM buyout for a club option in 2022. Aside from a bad contract swap, the Phillies are stuck with him. The good news for Phillies fans is if Herrera remains on the restricted list, they don’t have to pay him.
Don’t kid yourself he’s gone. He’ll never get another AB as a Phillie even if it means eating all the money he’s owed.
Doubtful. They added him back to the 40-man for a reason. They’re not going to just let that contract money walk for nothing.
Sorry, but that’s inaccurate. They had no choice but to activate him and put him on the 40-man since his suspension was over at season’s end and rosters had to be at 40 on Monday.
Releasing Odubel now makes it appear that the Phillies are releasing him for his D.V>, which violates the MLBPA Agreement. They have to prove that his release is baseball related.
Additionally, there is the chance that another team will take him on in a bad contract swap and he needs to be on the roster for that to happen.
He’s coming to spring training. Bank on it unless somehow they find a decent trade return. The Phillies never throw contract money away like that. Plus they have poor depth at center field, particularly if they trade Hernandez and Kingery spends most of his time at 2B.
They won’t prove anything is baseball related until at least sometime into ST. More likely into the season. Herrera is likely also going to be doing everything possible to come back from the slump he was in … which maybe was even related to the reasons for the arrest. Hard to say until we see him play some but I think we will see that in the spring.
It violates
the CBA!!??
Wow, that’s
not good.
That
should be
fixed…..
Unsure if you are being sarcastic or serious, but if you indeed are being serious, then yes.
Under the current agreement, Hererra cannot be released for any off the field issues. A player’s release must be related to baseball. on the field/in the clubhouse.
A team will also trade for him if he shows he’s closer to what he was before the big slump and arrest. Remember that Osuna was traded for after his incident and became a big part of Houston reaching the World Series.
It’s not like Herrera is the first player to get into this jam. It seems worse because it’s here. No, I don’t approve but the Players Union has clout and they negotiated things in a way that we’re almost sure to see Herrera play — that and the fact that most teams can’t afford to just throw guaranteed salary away.
Herrera for Addison Russell.
Klentak is fully right on the farm system. there arent many prospects in this system in the level of Howard and Bohm, but there are plenty of sleepers that have value. Lindow, Seabold, Glogoski, Rosso and others all rank low, if at all, on most rankings, and all show significant promise. evaluators were skeptical about Haseley too (he wa still ranked highly, but his rankings took a hit prior to last season) and he looked brilliant in the field and mostly comfortable at the plate despite being rushed to the Majors. clearly this is a bit of a hometown bias on my part, but i think there are pieces in that system.
Haseley is one to watch this season. As I mentioned above, if he makes adjustments like Kingery did, the Phillies might have a quality piece on both sides of the ball in CF.
Funny how no one even mentions Moniak who went 1/1. He’s still young and coming into his own.
Because Moniak hasn’t performed that well in the minors? He hasn’t even played AAA yet. His abysmal offensive numbers shouldn’t earn him a look with the big club. Yet.
Moniak still isn’t legal to buy beer yet. People forget he was 17 when he was drafted. Additionally, it’s not like he’s Juan Soto and the Phillies knew that going in.
He’s got a learning curve and has shown flashes, but he’s got a couple years yet.
Moniak is a project for sure. he is pretty young and undeveloped still, but has time. where he was drafted is history now; if he works out he works out.
Moniak has yet to crack a 310 OBP in full season ball. It looks unlikely he’s more than a up and down guy let alone a regular
Funny hearing this from Klentak who has been a disaster as an evaluator of talent. This is the same guy who told fans he liked last years’s rotation. He liked them at the 2018 trade deadline and he liked them going into 2019. If Spencer Howard is ready throw him in there NEXT year right from the start. He’s a year OLDER (at 23) than Mike Soroka of the Braves who came up last year at age 21. That gives you Nola, Howard and Arrieta. Then go out and sign both Gerrit Cole and Cole Hamels. Let Eflin fill in when needed. VV and Pivetta must go. Hernandez isn’t a bad player but he has a very low baseball IQ. Let him be your infield utility guy. Put Kingery at 2B. Bring on Bohm or sign Mutaskas or Donaldson short-term for 3B. Let Haseley, Cutch and Harper play the OF. Resign Dickerson if possible and let him and Bruce play OF or 1B. I would put Hoskins on a very short leash unless Girardi can do something with him. In two years under Gabe he got progressively worse. Not blaming Gabe and don’t know how to explain it.
Klentack simply has a biased viewpoint, nothing more nothing less. The reality is Phillies have 3 good top 100 type prospects and terrible depth behind it. Every system has long shot sleepers such as you named. It’s a bottom 10 farm
The Phillies farm stinks.
Also Bryson Stott (last year’s first round pick). He should be another one who moves up fast as a college drafted player.
I appreciate this article lending a dose of reality by suggesting Phillies fans should not expect Gole, Stras, etc. Sometimes the media treats the offseason like fantasy baseball. 2019 saw Harper, David Robertson, Realmuto, and McCutcheon don Phillies uniforms. It’s not like adding a $30M+ a yr pitcher is the next easy decision.
Phillies are set up to suck for years to come, they have traded away minor league players. Phillies if they sign 2 pitchers with draft picks attached that will be 3 years of lost draft picks. No early draft pick means the minor league will suck for years.
which is what happens at the end of a rebuild. i don’t know why people think that if your system is mediocre at any point in time, then something has gone wrong. they cashed some chips for baseball’s best catcher and plenty of have graduated. not every team is the Dodgers and the Yankees, and even those two teams havent won recently.
The Rebuild that wasn’t a rebuild.
going into last season the phillies had a middle of the road farm system all while flopping on 1st round selections so it’s certainly possible to have a good farm system with “early picks”.
$30MM. There’s so much demand it’ll be $35MM or more.
Why do people spell McCutchen wrong? I will never understand the adding of the letter “o”.
I never saw that before. That’s weird.
Phillies will not contend after going 500 16 games back with only planning to add 2 pitchers.
Well another key is health. The Phillies were crushed with injuries last year. I get it, all teams suffer injuries, but the Phillies set the record for bullpen injuries last year. That combined with Cutch going down was too much for them to overcome.
So having some guys come back healthy will be almost as good as signing free agents.
Related to the injuries is the obvious fact that the Phils lack depth. Their bench was pathetic all year. Teams like the Yankees and Braves overcame injuries because of a strong bench. Phillies lost McCutchen and never recovered.
So starting pitching is the clear and obvious need, but they also need offensive depth. New backups across the board.
Given all the injuries (especially in the bullpen) it’s actually astounding they finished @ 500. It should have been worse, especially in the division they are in.
The Phillies should spend that “stupid money” by taking on a bad contract in order to acquire a superstar. The Rockies are a logical trade partner. How about Jean Segura, Odubel Herrera, Nick William’s & Adonis Medina for Trevor Story, Wade Davis & Bryan Shaw? The Rockies believe themselves of 2 awful contracts and receive some talent in return. The Phils hope for rebound from Davis & Shaw and get a big time player in Story. VV & Pivetta’s stuff would play so much better out of the pen. VV even kinda has that “closer mentality”. Kingery is a 2B. He’d probably hit better knowing which glove he was going to use everyday. I also think the Phillies should go after Byron Buxton, he’s my breakout player of the year prediction. Cutch would do wonders as a tutor to Bux
I don’t think Williams or Herrera have any value. Story just won another SS. I think you need to give up more than that to get Story.
i dont see how that rockies trade helps the phillies. segura and story is pretty even talent wise, davis and shaw have proven they cant be trusted recently, and they give up their top arm from the farm. also, what motivation would the rockies have for doing that trade? they want to shed payroll but take on the salary of a wife beater and segura plus a 4th/5th outfielder who may end up being non-tendered anyway. as for buxton, he’d be a great fetch for the phils but why would the twins give him up when he’s really just started to come into his own finally and they’re set up to be contenders for the next few years?
The Twins are tired of Buxton’s injuries apparently. I’ve heard hes on the trade block
Adonis Medina is not their best pitching prospect, Spencer Howard is. I don’t see Medina having a ceiling higher than a #3 or #4. He’ll most likely be a back end rotation cog or middle reliever with upside in my opinion.
fangraphs has medina as the #1 prospect in the system, bohm as #2 and howard as #3
fangraphs has medina as the #1 prospect in the system, bohm as #2 and howard as #3. granted,howard looked better in his small sample of AA pitching so that’ll be worth keeping an eye on as they update their rankings for the offseason. my opinion is howard is more polished now but medina has the higher ceiling and also the lower floor
if there was anything to “buxton being on the trade block” you’d read about it right here on mlbtr
Howard and Bohm both did well in the Arizona Fall League. In overall AFL player rankings, MLB had Howard 6th and Bohm 7th.
Although I love MLBTR and have visited this site since its existence, there are other sites I visit. Google “Byron Buxton trade” and you will find a recently written article by a Minnesota based news outlet, stating that the Twins may be inclined to trading Buxton because they are losing patience with him constantly being injured. It also states that his style of play is what causes him to be oft injured but we love that kind of hustle here in Philly. I’d seriously consider buying low on this guy if I were the Phils front office. He combines elite speed and defense with an above average bat. A .280/.340/.500 slash with 30 dingers and 30 steals is what he’ll contribute if healthy for a full season.
i dont care how “impatient” they are with his injuries, the guy is pre-arb and had a WAR over 3 in roughly half a season. you dont give up on that type of player in a mid-market team that expects to be contenders
“The Phillies should spend that “stupid money” by”
Signing Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon.
Great. Casey’s Partner has changed his name but still continues to pour on his idiotic “buy everyone, all the time” strategy. Right, because running up a 300 million dollar always wins the World Series, doesn’t it? Go dump your garbage on another website.
I watch the Rockies consistently and I’m in Denver, so I read/hear the local sports.
No way the Rockies trade Story. No way. Yes, they are trying to shed payroll, but they aren’t going to give up Story (or Arenado) to do it. Bryan Shaw and Wade Davis have been downright terrible and would prove of no use to the Phillies.
The only way the Rockies trade Trevor Story is if they are doing a complete and total rebuild of the entire team which would mean trading not only Story, but Gray, Arenado, and Blackmon as well. Even if they do, they will be traded for MLB ready prospects which the Phillies do not have enough of.
Jeff Bridich values his players more than their value consistently, so I wouldn’t expect much.
well said woods. out of everyone on the rox the guy i would like to see the phils acquire would be jon gray, even if that means absorbing 1 of those horrible reliever contracts
The Rockies moves over the last 3 years are terrible. Ian Desmond- awful. Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee- awful. Their top prospect is a SS, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for them to trade Story. Jon Gray would fetch quite a haul. I think for far less teams could possibly acquire Kyle Freeland. He was downright amazing in ’18 and just bad in ’19. At 26 years old, I’d try to buy low on him rebounding in ’20.
@Phillies2020
Freeland you might get Freeland. However, again, Bridich will value him higher than he should. Bridich and his staff are downright abysmal for valuing/determining talent. Not only did they gaffe with the moves you mentioned, but they also failed on retaining DJ LeMahieu and Adam Ottavino believing they weren’t worth their salt.
That said, Philly might have what it would take to get Freeland (even if it is a tad high on the cost) and maybe Bryan Price can get him back to where he was.
I just don’t see the Rockies selling any of their big names unless they hit the plunger on the Dynamite and trade them all.
i’d be willing to move medina plus another top 10 prospect outside of bohm and howard to get gray and probably shaw(i think they’d value davis higher than shaw but that’s just my conjecture). obviously freeland would be a good add too but i think they’d be more willing to move gray in order to save more money as he’ll likely cost more in arb than freeland. i also dont know that i’d be willing to give up medina+ to get freeland bc of his inconsistency. he reminds me alot of VV in his first 2-3 seasons. i also REALLY LIKE a rotation consisting of nola-wheeler-gray-arrieta-efflin as opposed to putting “all our eggs in 1 basket” and getting cole/stras. with the money saved we can then get further upgrades in the pen and on offense(maybe donaldson or rendon instead of moose at 3rd). i guess what im saying is i think it’s better to spread money around instead of going for a boom or bust approach in FA
Also think the Phillies should go hard on Zack Wheeler (5/100), bring back Hamels (2/22), cast a wide net for relievers signing a guy like Tyler Clippard or Steve Cishek and low risk rebound candidates like Brandon Morrow & Brad Brach. Haisley would be a great 4th outfielder if they were to trade for Buxton or Kiermaier and I’d try to get Moose for 2/30 or Todd Frazier as a stop gap to Bohm. I love Billy Hamilton as a bench player because of his amazing defensive & baserunning metrics and Jose Iglesias as depth up the middle. Would also take a flier on Shelby Miller, King Felix Greg Holland & Luke Gregorson
I like it. Perhaps you can submit your application when Klentak gets the axe.
i dont necessarily oppose any of ur suggestions but i think we need a solid proven stopper in the bullpen, whether it be a set up man or closer. the bullpen just needs somebody to turn to in the most crucial outs of the game, essentially what robertson was supposed to be
Hopefully that will be Dominguez. Coupled with Neris, that’s not bad for high leverage, but they could use 1 more.
i’d like to have a proven stopper and not bank on maybe’s or should be’s. not necessarily saying we need a closer per se but a relief ace
The Phillies are in an odd spot. They need to add but also are years away from being a contender. The best approach is to sign guys that didn’t get a QO. They’re not a Cole, Strasbourg or Rendon away from contention so I don’t think it’s worth losing a pick and licking into that sort of contract.
I disagree. I think they are 2 or 3 good moves from being a playoff team. They need to add 2 starters, at least one of them a lefty. Cole Hamels would be a popular addition with the fan base and can provide quality innings out of the #4 spot. If they miss out on Cole, Stras or Wheeler they should try to acquire Jon Gray from the Rockies or Dylan Bundy from the Orioles to slot in between Nola & Arrieta with Hamels and Eflin being the #4 & #5. They should check in on Kris Bryant, Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor in addition to Buxton & Kiermaier
Betts? MLBTR is saying that’ll take $27MM in salary plus 3-4 MLB ready players and prospects. You want Philly to pay that or do you think Boston will deal him for something more palatable, given its a one year rental?
It’s a pipe dream but what if Philly took on David Price’s contract in addition to Betts in order to facilitate a trade? Boston would almost have to consider it, wouldn’t they?
Gerrit Cole and Rendon is so much better than that.
No way that happens after Harper.
Years away from being a contender? They were legitimate wild card contenders until the last week or so of the season. The wild card winner won the World Series. I’m not calling the Phillies great or anything, but if they stay healthy they can be in the playoffs for sure. Obviously it’s tough when the Braves, Nats and Mets are also capable of winning now (and I’d consider the Phils worse than those 3), but I would not be shocked at all if the Phils were in the playoffs next season. Keep in mind they were playing really well early on when healthy, but they crumbled when it mattered.
The Phillies lack core talent.
One pitcher and two position players is not the core of a World Series team.
They have core talent now. Maybe not from their own system but Harper and Realmuto are core talent. Maybe not enough but they’re not that far away from truly contending. A number of players had down years – something that both the odds and a manager change say is likely to change. They should also non-tender or trade Franco and trade Hernandez for anything at this point (last year of team control) and use the projected $18.5M of that arbitration money and upgrade at third base. Moustakas is an upgrade they can get on a short contract. Same for Donaldson even though his dollars will be a lot higher. Add a bench bat, two upper tier starting pitchers (one a lefty) and 1-2 upper tier bullpen arms and they should be right in it.
“Moustakas is an upgrade they can get on a short contract. Same for Donaldson even though his dollars will be a lot higher. Add a bench bat, two upper tier starting pitchers (one a lefty) and 1-2 upper tier bullpen arms and they should be right in it.”
That’s a lot of new money.
2 position players? harper,hoskins, segura, cutch, ,bruce and kingery are all first division regulars. they match up just as well with the core of the nationals team that just won the world series and it didn’t take years of tanking and 10+ years to build that core
You must not remember the last years of the Expos and first years of the Nats. While the Phillies were winning division titles, the Nats were losing 95+ games a season.
That’s how they netted both Strasburg and Harper with back to back #1 picks.
It didn’t take 10 years, it took 15.
i somehow failed to mention the best catcher in baseball as part of our core talent as well. the core talent is there, it’s pitching and supplementing that talent that the phils need to focus on this year
He’s only a part of the “core talent” for another 162 games. Unless Klentak lock him up, but that’s not a sure bet as of today.
What choice do they have? Their farm isn’t nearly deep or strong enough. You don’t want to be hoping and waiting while Harper’s and Realmuto’s (hopefully with an extension) contracts tick away.
What might really go a long way is some blockbuster level trade where two teams exchange a number of good players. But that seems unlikely and I can’t even begin to figure out what that exchange would even look like.
If they think they can turn the farm around and get a number of good college players over the next few years as part of that, they could go high on payroll temporarily then scale back as they trade out big contracts for players coming up. Arrieta, for example, is a big chunk gone after 2020.
Moustakas, by the way, would likely cost less than what Franco and Hernandez are projected to get in arbitration. If they move those two they could actually upgrade at third base and save some money. Not clear until he gets offers of course but he only made $7M last year and opted out if $11M in 2020. Franco is projected to get $6..9;M in arbitration. Hernandez $11.8M.
@woods he’s part of the core until he leaves.
“We’ve built a pretty solid core, we think, on the position-player front”
This is so wrong.
Anyone with a three digit baseball IQ knows the Phillies need Rendon at 3B.
Pipe dream. Even entertaining (let alone expecting) the Phillies to sign Rendon is folly.
No point on wasting that money on Rendon when you can sign Moose, give Bohm time to progress and spend that “Rendon Money” on upgrades to the pitching staff on deals shorter than Rendon would require.
Bohm is a first baseman.
That’s the argument for signing Rendon. Also the fact that if Bohm is really all that good you can always trade either him or Hoskins. Bohm hasn’t hit AAA yet so counting on him to win now is unwise. Every year they wait for future guys is a year they waste the good years of Harper and Realmuto.
EXACTLY
The Phillies need to buy Gerrit Cole and Rendon.
That doesn’t take them to the second tier of payroll tax so they can definitely afford it.
They really need two pitchers though. If Cole’s price goes way up, they could go something like Odorizzi, Bumgarner, Rendon or Donaldson. That still moves the bar.
One reason for at least being in on top lineup guys like Rendon and Donaldson is they have no idea if they can land the pitching targets they want. If they fall short on pitching, guys like Rendon and Donaldson help by making the lineup that much better.
bohm played more innings in double-A at 3B than he did combined innings at 1B in all levels of the minors
I tend to think he can stick at 3B. Some scouts don’t though. Phillies really also need more consistently good defense at 3B. Franco improved defensively but has been among the worst in the league overall other years. Plus his totally inconsistent offense. I think he’s gone.
1-2 years of Donaldson or Moustakas would give them an upgrade and time to work Bohm in. If Hoskins slumps big time again first base might not look so bad for Bohm. It’s kind of hard to really count on Hoskins after that second half.
i blame “lineup management” by krapler as the reason why rhys struggled in the 2nd half.can anybody give me 1 reason why he was batting leadoff for a stretch?also, mlb.com felt comfortable enough with bohm’s defense 5o name him the #1 3B prospect in all of baseball and BP has he’s improved enough defensively they believe he’d be at the very least average
I agree with you (again). I think Kapler and Malee both messed Rhys up a bit. Hopefully GIrardi can get him comfortable. When Hoskins is on, he’s one of the deadliest, patient hitters in the NL.
Speaking of which, I haven’t see any news on who the hitting coach might be. Not even a list of candidates that are frontrunners.
Maybe. But Hoskins also finished the last two months of 2018 with some mediocre numbers. He may be a bit over-hyped. Hopefully not and hopefully the manager change helps but he had a very disappointing season.
i’ll take a 110 OPS+ in a down season though as long as it proves that it was just that, a down year. i also havent heard much on hitting coach but i figure worst case scenario charlie is back which i wouldnt mind lmao
He held a good OPS number because of the walks. Walks are good (better than outs) but as what’s sold as a power guy in the lineup he needs to hit more consistently. BA from July to end of season was .189. 2018 end of year slump was not as bad or as long, but that year from August to end of season he hit .215. OBP during both stretches was over .300 but nothing spectacular. He’s average at best defensively. Early on I thought “lock this guy up.” Now, I’d say no. He’ll be 31 when he hits free agency. There might be better options at first base between now and then.
WRC of 113 still says he was pretty good regardless of how or when the offense was generated. he dropped off each of the last 2 years in the 2nd half of the season and in both of those years thats when kapler started playing with his position in the lineup. girardi needs to just slam him in the 4 or 5 spot from day 1 of ST and let him slug like he does
I agree that Rendon is a pipe dream, especially following the Harper deal.
Wonder how many teams who can’t spend Rendon money are looking hard at Moustakas? I don’t know, of course, I’m just wondering.
Moustakas may be a decent compromise. Particularly since he’s a left-handed hitter with power. Another lefty power threat in the lineup would help I think. Look at how it was before Bruce got hurt. Bruce could be the lefty off the bench. The whole lineup improves even if it’s not as huge an improvement as we’d obviously see with Rendon. Donaldson as well but he is older and the Phillies would be just the team to sign him and get a down or injured year out of it. Yeah, I’ve lived here too long ….
If they were really going for it regardless of cost Rendon is the guy. I just don’t see them doing it with the cost they’ll have buying starting pitching. I think they’d have to go over the luxury tax. Not the end of the world given their profits and the fact that they could probably get back under it in a year or two. But they are still the Phillies. Donaldson or even Moustakas would also be an upgrade. If you look at it as trading the projected salaries of Franco/Hernandez for a third base upgrade (Kingery to 2B most days). it looks more affordable. But good pitching is going to cost. Rendon would be a huge difference maker in the lineup though.
“But they are still the Phillies.”
Fans in Philly aren’t buying that anymore.
If this is it then their attendance has reached its new peak and Harper’s signing is going down as a total bust, another version of the Ryan Howard extension.
Nothing has changed inside the organization in terms of drafting and signing talent. There is no skill there so nothing is or will be coming to impact the big club.
Fans may not buy it but until we see them go over the luxury tax you have to believe it. They always have had their own limits, even when profitable. I’d love to see a change there but we’ve already seen some comments about the cost of trying to buy too much this offseason.
They could take a Yankees-like approach and go over until their farm is better. That assumes the changes they’ve made actually make it better. The Phillies continue to be plagued (for many years) with an inability to get enough good players out of their own system.
Almaraz out, Brian Barber hired from Yankees as new scouting director.. So they have changed. They know they have issues. The question is whether they can change things given their poor history.
To be fair, MacPhail and Klentak were hired after the 2015 draft so they’ve only overseen 4 drafts. Not enough time to fully judge yet, particularly HS drafted players.
Spencer and Bohm look like winners. Stott does too in the early going.
“Almaraz out, Brian Barber hired from Yankees as new scouting director.”
Almaraz is still there. Just dropped his title. Barber is the only change.
The Phillies considered two guys from within to take that position and they have been there decades. This is __not__ change.
Barber is a change to drafting. Maybe not enough but it’s a change.
They’ll have to improve on the drafting/player development side and Middleton knows that. Otherwise they can never sustain success. The question is whether they realize any change there is not likely to be close and whether they’re willing to spend to compensate. They talk the talk but, again, until they actually go over that luxury tax it’s just talk. They’re very profitable being just close enough which also factors in.
If they were going for a title regardless of all else, they would be going after both Cole and Rendon. Plus another top tier starter, a bullpen upgrade or two and a bench upgrade. Even if they move some salaries like Hernandez and Franco, they’d still almost surely go over the luxury tax limit. I’ll believe that when I see it.
“If they were going for a title regardless of all else, they would be going after both Cole and Rendon. Plus another top tier starter, a bullpen upgrade or two and a bench upgrade.”
Holy moly.
That’s being honest. They simply don’t have enough of their own organizational guys. Remember with the 2008 team they had Hamels as a starter from the farm and Rollins, Utley and Howard all from the farm. That’s a lot of talent compared to what their roster has now. And the best talent now (Harper, Realmuto) has come from outside.
Even if Howard and another pitcher emerge as true upper rotation guys by 2021 or 2022, they still have to fill that year or two with something to compete. Third base is basically a black hole until they know Bohm can truly be something in the majors.
Anybody that watched the playoffs and WS can see how great the talent gap is.
Phillies fans don’t watch any postseason games the Phillies are not playing.
“Go Iggles!”
I believe the 2019 Phillies draft sends two to the majors by the end of 2021. Stott (SS) and Miller (LHP) with Miller getting there first. Miller went up three levels last season and barely looked challenged. Sott shows a lot of promise although some were concerned he never made it out of Low-A and at times looked pretty lost at the plate,. he did finish the season strong.
Josh Hamilton believed that God talked to him.
Arte Moreno wished God had told Hamilton to take his walks.
You don’t hear much about Miller. He had great numbers even though it was only rookie ball through Lakewood.
I like him but the cautionary tale is another 4th round lefty I liked, JoJo Romero. Once Romero got above Single-A it got a lot harder. Miller has better overall stuff, better potential (IMO anyway) though.
Phillies need some lefties from their farm.
[– “We’ve built a pretty solid core, we think, on the position-player front,” said Klentak. “So I think it makes sense for us to look to pour some more resources, and our time and attention, into improving our run prevention. That starts in the starting rotation.”“We’ve built a pretty solid core, we think, on the position-player front,” said Klentak. “So I think it makes sense for us to look to pour some more resources, and our time and attention, into improving our run prevention. That starts in the starting rotation.” –]
–
Right there is the problem – and the problem is the GM.
Run Prevention starts with DEFENSE.
The Phillies have had an absolutely AWFUL defense for 2 years now.
Realmuto is terrific. Haseley can play CF, if he hits .250. The rest of the players are between sub-standard and mediocre defensively. Most should be DH’s.
Doesn’t matter who you bring into pitch. They need to be supported by D. Number of pitches are counted, and pitchers are pulled even if they’re doing well. Defenders that can’t make plays resulting in outs not made not only cost runs, they force the pitcher out of the game earlier because he hits his pitch count limit.
I looked at the Phillies roster the other day and tried to figure out how to restructure it – starting with Segua who should not be allowed to play SS. But there’s nothing realistic that can be done.
you made this argument last week and got shut down, what makes u think that you’ll get away with it now? outfield will be fine with cutch in left, haseley/odubel/quinn in center and bryce in right. rhys and realmuto are set at 1st and catcher respectively, kingery is great at either 2nd and 3rd and a FA will fill the other spot, seagura is average with the glove at short. that’s a solid and improving defense now stop with this false narrative
I got “shut down”?
What exactly does that mean? Phillie fans know what is?
The Phils defense is horrific! Scouts can’t believe they continue to run those guys out there.
Hoskins is terrible at 1B. Ditto Segura at SS. Cutch is fine in LF….if he’s compared to JD Davis. Odubel is not a CF. You don’t have a 3B. Kingerey is an excellent utility guy – but he’s not winning any Gold Gloves soon.
just stop when u dont know what ur talking about. hoskins is slightly below average at 1st, segura again slightly below average at short. kingery played above average defense at 2nd,3rd, short and center field. cutch was slightly above average in his time in left,he was obviously overmatched in center but everyone knew that going into the season. herrera was a 4 WAR player just 2 seasons ago, where defense is included. u keep saying “scouts and front offices cant believe they keep running this defense out there” but yet u have NO SOURCES. try trolling somewhere else.
Their defense was actually pretty good by the numbers last year. Maybe buoyed up by guys like Harper and Realmuto but they went from 27th in the league in 2018 to 5th best overall defense in 2019 by FanGraphs measures.
In just the NL – second worst in 2018 to third best in 2019.
For the life of me, I don’t understand how “statistical numbers” are computed for defense. What I do know its this – players that are bad rapped here for their D based on publications like Fangraphs, are often lauded for their D by their teammates – especially those that play next to them. And guys that are built up as being superior defenders are people I watch play and can’t believe how average to bad they are.
Speaking of which – I’ve actually tried to watch some Phillie games. Their fundamentals – especially on D and in baserunning – were unbecoming of a ML team that claimed to be a contender. Girardi will improve it, but if he pushes too hard the players will complain to their agents.
With all the off-season pub I thought the Phillies would finish in 4th place in 2019. That’s what happened. Girardi may get them up to 3rd place this year – but that will be because the Nationals and Braves are about to separate seriously from the Mets and Phillies.
u dont understand how u can have statistics for defense?maybe that’s why ur conjecture is so far off base. literally ever move made on a baseball field is kept track of including routes to balls. so keep thinking that YOUR “scouts eye” is correct and everybody else is wrong, it’s obviously gotten u that mlb scout job right? /sarcasm
Your writing skills need is at a young boy scout level Phils. Congrats, you’re a scout.
Although I love MLBTR and have visited this site since its existence, there are other sites I visit. Google “Byron Buxton trade” and you will find a recently written article by a Minnesota based news outlet, stating that the Twins may be inclined to trading Buxton because they are losing patience with him constantly being injured. It also states that his style of play is what causes him to be oft injured but we love that kind of hustle here in Philly. I’d seriously consider buying low on this guy if I were the Phils front office. He combines elite speed and defense with an above average bat. A .280/.340/.500 slash with 30 dingers and 30 steals is what he’ll contribute if healthy for a full season.
Cesar Hernandez is projected to make more than $11M in arbitration next year. For those who want to trade him or make him a utility player, neither is possible. Who would trade for him at 11M? And a utility player who can barley play one position adequately? No thanks. Time to just non tender and move on. Spend the 11M somewhere else.