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Newly-hired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom faces an immediate challenge in getting the Red Sox back to the postseason while simultaneously navigating a difficult payroll situation.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Chris Sale, SP: $145MM through 2024
- Xander Bogaerts, SS: $120MM through 2025 (plus $20MM vesting option for 2026)
- David Price, SP: $96MM through 2022
- J.D. Martinez, OF/DH: $62.5MM through 2022 (2021-22 seasons could become mutual options if Martinez suffers Lisfranc or related injuries to his right foot)
- Nathan Eovaldi, SP: $51MM through 2022
- Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $25MM through 2021
- Rusney Castillo, OF: $13.5MM through 2020
- Christian Vazquez, C: $10.7MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $7MM club option for 2022)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)
- Jackie Bradley Jr. – $11MM
- Sandy Leon – $2.8MM
- Mookie Betts – $27.7MM
- Brandon Workman – $3.4MM
- Eduardo Rodriguez – $9.5MM
- Matt Barnes – $3.0MM
- Heath Hembree – $1.6MM
- Andrew Benintendi – $4.9MM
- Marco Hernandez – $700K
- Josh Osich – $1.0MM
- Non-tender candidates: Hernandez, Leon, Osich
Free Agents
- Rick Porcello, Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt, Andrew Cashner, Steve Pearce, Eduardo Nunez, Tyler Thornburg, Jhoulys Chacin, Steven Wright, Gorkys Hernandez, Chris Owings, Juan Centeno, Josh Smith
After 15 seasons in the Rays’ front office, Bloom is no stranger to the difficulties of trying to manage a payroll while also trying to keep a competitive team on the field. It’s just that now, Bloom will be dealing with a payroll more than three times as larger than anything he ever dealt with in Tampa Bay — not to mention exponentially more pressure from fans, media, and his own bosses. As evidenced with predecessors Ben Cherington and Dave Dombrowski, not even a recent World Series victory can save the head of a Red Sox front office if team ownership isn’t satisfied with immediate results.
As of late September, the organization’s plan was to get under the $208MM Competitive Balance Bax threshold, though Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy somewhat walked that back by stating that avoiding the luxury tax was a “goal but not a mandate.” The Sox have exceeded the CBT threshold in each of the last two seasons, and thus as a three-time repeater would face a 50 percent tax on every dollar spent over the $208MM line in 2020, plus an added 12.5% surtax if their luxury payroll falls within the $228-$248MM range.
As currently comprised, the Red Sox have a luxury tax number of just over $236.3MM (as per Roster Resource) for next season. Ducking under the $228MM mark seems feasible. However, it would take some judicious cutting and/or creative trades to slide under the $208MM threshold and reset Boston’s tax penalties entirely, given the number of needs on the roster.
Obligatory reminder: the luxury tax is not an exorbitantly punitive sum. Exceeding the top level of the luxury tax in 2018 cost the Red Sox roughly $11.95MM (and a ten-slot drop in their 2019 draft order), and their 2019 tax penalty will be in the neighborhood of $13.05MM, as per Ronald Blum of the Associated Press, with no change to their draft position. Every organization has a budget, and it’s understandable that Red Sox ownership is less willing to pay tax penalties for an 84-win team than it was for a World Series champion, but there isn’t any concrete reason why Boston (or any big-market team) should be treating the CBT as an actual salary cap. There is surely no small amount of annoyance within the MLBPA and the player agent community that another large-market franchise is seemingly more focused on trimming payroll instead of spending.
It’s also worth noting that Boston’s payroll situation would be a lot clearer if ownership hadn’t given Dombrowski the green light to re-sign Nathan Eovaldi in free agency last winter or to give Chris Sale a five-year extension that begins in 2020. Those two contracts, plus the $96MM still owed to David Price, now all loom large as question marks after all three pitchers battled injuries last season. Some level of a rebound is certainly possible, but it’s unlikely that all three will be healthy and pitch up to peak standards next year, leaving the Red Sox without much flexibility for rotation upgrades. Eduardo Rodriguez has a checkered injury history of his own, but the southpaw was a bright spot last season, posting a 3.81 ERA over a career-high 203 1/3 innings.
For the remaining rotation spot, the Sox could look to sign any number of low-cost veterans, and maybe even reunite with Rick Porcello. Or, since the Red Sox already began using openers last season, the club could instead deploy a full-time opener/bulk pitcher combo in the fifth starter position rather than a proper starting pitcher. Given that Bloom was one of the architects of the opener strategy in Tampa Bay, this might be a more likely (and cost-effective) route for the Sox to take rather than spend a few extra million on an innings-eating starter. It might not even be out of the question for the team to explore putting an opener in front of Eovaldi, if injuries continue to be a factor.
A deep bullpen is a necessity for a team using an opener, and the relief corps is another area of need. Brandon Workman’s role will be of interest, as the veteran righty emerged as Boston’s closer down the stretch and posted an impressive 1.88 ERA and 13.1 K/9 over 71 2/3 innings. There was some volatility in those numbers, as Workman (like virtually every Sox reliever in 2019) had control issues (5.7 BB/9).
The Red Sox could prefer to use Workman in a setup role rather than as a closer, or at least acquire another arm who has ninth-inning experience as depth to work behind Workman. Sergio Romo is a known quantity to Bloom from his time in Tampa, and Romo would also come at a much lower price than other top relievers on the market; a play for Will Smith seems out of the question, and Boston’s spending concerns could possibly even keep them out of the Will Harris/Drew Pomeranz tier. Names like Chris Martin, Craig Stammen, or Daniel Hudson could all be considered, as could a pursuit of a bounce-back candidate Dellin Betances.
Turning to position players, one of the team’s biggest offseason questions has already been answered, as J.D. Martinez decided not to opt out of the remaining three years of his contract. An opt-out would’ve taken $22MM in average annual salary off of Boston’s books and given them more tax breathing room, though it would’ve come at the cost of one of the game’s best sluggers.
Instead, Martinez will now rejoin Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers in one of the sport’s most fearsome lineup quartets. Catcher Christian Vazquez enjoyed the best hitting season of his career, though the Sox will be looking for more from Andrew Benintendi in 2020 after the outfielder scuffled through a down year.
With Mitch Moreland and Brock Holt headed for free agency, and Dustin Pedroia’s playing future still unclear, both first base and second base are up for grabs. Michael Chavis had a solid rookie year and is a candidate for regular playing time at either position. Top prospect Bobby Dalbec could work his way into the first base conversation as early as next season. A left-handed bat would be the ideal complement to the right-handed hitting Chavis and Dalbec, and for both bat-sided and versatility reasons, re-signing Holt (or a Holt type like Eric Sogard) would make a lot of sense. Bringing Moreland back is also possible if the Red Sox are comfortable with Chavis as a second baseman, but the team will have plenty of options to consider on the crowded first base/DH market.
The Red Sox have already cut down on their projected arbitration costs by parting ways with Steven Wright, Gorkys Hernandez, and Chris Owings, while also adding lefty Josh Osich to the list after claiming him from the White Sox. That results in a projected savings of $4.5MM, and a bit more money could be saved if the Sox non-tendered Sandy Leon or Marco Hernandez. As much as the Sox prize Leon’s defense and game-calling abilities, they could see $2.8MM as a high price for a player with no offensive value.
As generally strong as this position player mix looks, there has been a great deal of speculation about whether all of the key players will be back in 2020. Injuries and contracts make Price, Sale, and Eovaldi difficult to trade — to varying extents. Unless the Sox take another unfavorable contract back in return, pay down some of the remaining salary and/or attach young talent from their already-thin minor league system to entice a rival team to absorb one of these salaries, they’ll have a difficult time finding a taker. Therefore, the easiest route to creating payroll space would be to trade a high-salaried position player.
Bogaerts clearly isn’t going anywhere, and Martinez will be able to modify his three-team no-trade list later this month, per MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). Given the lack of win-now teams with a DH opening, that list can be tailored to the current market, thus making a Martinez trade difficult for Boston. That leaves Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. as the likeliest candidates to be dealt. Bradley is projected for an $11MM salary in his final year of arbitration eligibility — a hefty number for a player who has had below-average offensive production for the last three seasons and (of greater concern) also had a drop-off with the glove in 2019, according to the UZR/150 (-1.8) and Defensive Runs Saved (-1).
The Red Sox don’t plan to non-tender Bradley, as they’ll explore trade possibilities in an offseason that doesn’t feature much in the way of interesting free-agent center fielders. Moving Bradley for a starter, reliever, first baseman, or second baseman would be a canny way of addressing a need if not necessarily saving on payroll, though any number of multi-player arrangements could be explored. In terms of replacing Bradley, Betts or Benintendi could be moved into center field, with the Sox then acquiring a lower-cost corner outfielder.
And then there’s the possibility of a Betts trade, which would be much more of a game-changer. Betts is only under contract for one more season, and he has been open about his interest in reaching the free agent market rather than signing an extension with the Red Sox (though he has said he enjoys playing in Boston). With Martinez and his salary back in the fold, it could increase the chances of Betts being dealt, as painful as it would be to unload one of the game’s best players.
To land Betts, a team would have to be willing to give up a noteworthy combination of big league-ready young talent and prospects for just one season of Betts’ services, and also be capable of absorbing his $27.7MM in projected salary. In exploring the Betts trade market last month, I listed the Phillies, Reds, Mets, and Padres as perhaps the best candidates since all four teams are aggressively planning to contend in 2020, though it’s possible more clubs could enter the mix depending on how other offseason business plays out.
The Rays swung several creative trades during Bloom’s tenure, so any number of multi-team possibilities could be explored to create a Betts deal that would most benefit the Sox from both a financial and player return standpoint. One would imagine, however, that Bloom will look into myriad cost-cutting measures before getting around to the Plan C or Plan D that would be a Betts trade. Kennedy’s comments suggest that the Red Sox could settle for just getting into the lowest tier (spending between $208MM-$228MM) of luxury tax penalties, if avoiding the tax entirely will severely hamper the team’s chances of competing in 2020.
Ownership has made it clear that winning is still the priority, so the Red Sox will try to emulate the Dodgers (led by Andrew Friedman, Bloom’s old boss in Tampa Bay) in escaping luxury tax purgatory while still reaching the postseason on an annual basis. It will be a tall order, though with all the talent already on the roster, the Sox could only be a few moves — albeit perhaps large moves — away from another playoff berth.
Sign Brockstar!
He does too much for the team with his ability to play a servicable or better… everything, well, except SP or C – and that’s for lack of seeing him there. He’s the Chuck Norris of the Red sox.
MLBTR has Brock pegged for a 2yr/$8M deal with Arizona…taking the speculative guess about which team will sign him out of the equation, I’d have to imagine the Sox would be ecstatic about getting Holt in the $4M range annually
Exactly. Holt lives year round in Boston and I’m expecting him to take back his top offer for them to meet. He is also heavily involved in the community. Moreland and possibly Porcello may also be back given their lower than expected values. Glad the article places the blame for the pitching signings on ownership. Mr. Bloom please don’t bring the opener and 13 pitchers to Boston because Boston fans expect real baseball, which is not won on a computer.
Question is does Bloom care about any of that?
Also that didn’t help Adam Jones to stay with Baltimore.
The opener is a good strategy and the future of the game, why do you feel threatened by the game changing?
I think it’s 50/50 on Brock coming back. But only about 20% chance that Moreland does (cheaper and/or younger alternatives) and less than a 10% chance that Porcello returns-they won’t be spending $10m or more for a #5 starter
Stop hating the concept
Playing “real baseball” didn’t help the Sox last year. Interesting how not playing “real baseball” & not having money still got the Rays to the post season. I think the fans want a winning team & could care less how they get there.
I don’t see it as the future of the game. It’s something you do in a pinch. And some organizations are constantly in this pinch, so they do it more. We’ve watched it work, and we’ve watched it fail. No way is adopted league wide like that. Ever. We still have half the league making pitchers hit.
And nobody took the Rays as a serious contender with that strategy. WS matchup… Verlander, Cole, Greinke, Wiley vs Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Sanchez. Both overthought the playoffs and robbed us of better pitching but point stands, strong starting pitching wins. Openers are boring and only done if you lack real starters.
And what relievers do you see the Sox employing as openers ??
I don’t think the Sox really have much interest in bringing Holt back. Nothing against him – he’s great but the team is focused on cutting payroll and spending $4M for a utility guy (even a good one like Holt) just doesn’t match up. Especially considering they have a guy like Marco Hernandez just waiting to take over that “Brock Holt” role for just $1M (vs $4+). Also I think Hernandez is the real deal and is going to really surprise a lot of people that may be overlooking him at the moment if given the opportunity to prove himself. He was well on his way to doing so a couple years back before injuries ravaged his next several seasons – but now back to being healthy I think it’s time to hand over the Utility-Role reigns to him and let Brock Holt sign somewhere that he might even get a chance to be an everyday player – or closer to it than with the Red Sox.
You spoke my words Benny….we all want the “Brockstar” BACK!!!!!
I think my handle says enough of how much I care for the Red Sox. BRING BACK BROCK!!
Well since the Yankees didn’t give Didi a QO maybe they move Torres to short DJ to second and for $4 million a year sign Brock just to piss off Sox fans.
Yeah how would we possibly survive that!?
There’s an X-Factor attached to Holt as well. He’s a clubhouse and dugout presence whose contributions go way beyond his stats.
FINALLY! Someone who understands that “the luxury tax is not an exorbitantly punitive sum.,” and certainly not for the Red Sox. The Red Sox 2018 revenue was greater than $516 million, and so a $13 million tax bill will not exceed 2.5% of the total. If we assume that 50% of Pedroia’s contract will be covered by insurance – a likely scenario at this point – the tax penalty can be considered as being reduced to something like $6-7 million. So let’s stop kidding ourselves: the Red Sox honchos continuously crying about the luxury tax threshold are fooling no one and are, in truth, crying into their champagne glasses.
they lose draft slots if they spend too much multiple years in a row
The Sox finally have international slots again. That’s what no one talks about.
They lose 10 draft slots any year they go over the highest tax point.
Question: What is the evidence – and I’m talking about quantitative, statistical evidence – that this draft “punishment” has any impact? I suppose I am asking for a longitudinal analysis along the lines of assigning to each draft position probabilities for becoming a major league player, for n number of years, achieving a certain WaR, etc. I assume front offices possess something(s) like that – they at least should – but do you know if anything like that is available to fans like us? My ‘gut’ feeling is that losing 10 slots each year is not significant compared to (for example) the WaR benefit gained by exceeding the tax threshold. But perhaps that assumption is wrong?
“…the Red Sox honchos continuously crying about the luxury tax threshold are fooling no one and are, in truth, crying into their champagne glasses.”
It’s what owner’s do. And a lot of fans take it right on the chin and say ‘thank you, can I have another!’ while calling the players overpaid babies. (I acknowledge that SOME of them are, but pretty much ALL owners are overpaid babies. We could solve the whole debate by opening the books.)
The owners have the risk associated with operating and owning a franchise. It’s a business, they’re designed to make money. Let’s not pretend that generally speaking, players are underpaid.
If there are some who are, it’s the fault of MLBPA and their inability to focus on the younger guys coming up. Instead concerned with the 35-year-olds who suck.
As a previous successful small business owner I am well aware of the risks of owning and operating a business. I am also aware that many, many business owners way overstate this risk in order to underpay their employees.
As I said, some ballplayers are overpaid, but pretty much all owners are overpaid. They just hide that fact in their hidden books, which many fans, like you, accept without even question. And we give them anti-trust exemption… BWAHAHAHA.
What risk is there when MLB gifted Henry the golden goose a Red Sox? Remember, he wasn’t the highest bidder and it took Bud Selig to orchestrate Henry owning Boston and Lurie owning FL. Lurie did “ok” and Henry keeps getting more trophies, the Boston Globe and a soccer club amongst them.
Boom roasted!
There’s risk in any business. Some more than others. If you can’t understand that, then I’m sorry.
Also, other business ventures have nothing to do with the books for the Red Sox.
Wow, that’s a lot of revenue!
Insurance pays the contract in case of injury but does not have any effect of luxury tax.
I did not say or imply that it did. The luxury tax calculation does not change, The *effect* of an insurance payout, however, is $6-7 million more dollars available to pay for anything, including the luxury tax itself. That makes the luxury tax payment, which I argue is already peanuts compared to the Red Sox total revenue, halved. That reduces the luxury tax to peanut shells.
While the Red Sox make bring in a lot of revenue, that doesn’t mean they’re making a lot of money, which is the point of any business. You have to consider that half that revenue is taken up by the teams payroll and than is also needs to cover the cost of the facility (maintenance, utilities, etc.), other personnel (coaches, management, training staff, etc), insurance. I don’t know how the minor league teams are funded, but I thought they are subsidized by the big league clubs. Just cause they make a lot of money, doesn’t mean they get to keep a lot of it.
True enough. So let’s consider that, giving the RS all possible advantage: $516 million minus $300 million total payroll (players + coaches + FO + trainers + scouts + plane travel + parking attendants + et al.) = $216 million. Let’s now assume, again giving the RS all possible advantage, they spend $116 million each year on minor league expenses not covered above. That leaves $100 million in profit. As the old song goes, fifty thou a year will buy a lot of beer, and $100 million a year is 2000-times more beer.
I’m just saying that all the RS belly-aching about the luxury tax is nonsense. There is no evidence whatsoever that the RS ownership is not “keep[ing]” a lot of money.
Someone posted this a while ago. This is for last year. Not saying they don’t make a significant amount of money, the point of a business is to make money. They had the Red Sox pegged at $84M for 2018.
forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#header:operatingIn…
“To land Betts, a team would have to be willing to give up a noteworthy combination of big league-ready young talent and prospects for just one season of Betts’ services, and also be capable of absorbing his $27.7MM in projected salary.”
i.e., Boston has absolutely no intention of trading Betts, and therefore won’t. Because no one is going to go anywhere near this deal for one year of Mookie Betts. So I guess Sox ownership is stuck somewhere significantly north of $208MM. Or maybe MLBTR has significantly misread this trade situation?
Mookie Betts is absolutely gone. They’re not going to lose him for nothing.
But does Boston get anything close to what it’s purportedly asking? I mean, first you’ve got to start with taking on a $27MM or so salary. How much more is a team willing to give than that for a one year rental? MLBTR seems to suggest 3-4 MLB-readies and prospects. For a rental.
Betts has a market, trade him!!!
Option 1: Trade Betts to help restock the farm a little.
Option 2: Trade Bogaerts & Price, free up $52m in 2020. Sign Didi. Pick up 1-2 SP’s. Hope Eovaldi returns to form.
Option 3: Trade JBJ and find someone to fill in cheaper.
David Price and his $96 million contract straight up to San Diego for Hosmer ($18M) and Myers ($20M).
That’s about the dumbest trade I’ve ever heard. Luckily it has a zero chance of being proposed.
In order to truly compare both sides of that deal you would have re-state the Hosmer and Myers costs in total terms, as you did for Price. As it is you’re comparing apples and oranges. What I do know is that Hosmer’s deal is still north of $100MM, is it not? And isn’t Myers still several tens of millions? I think the two Padres deals were far worse than the Price deal, and the Price deal was/is not great.
And once again that’s a hard pass.
Too many years coming back to Boston unless significant money comes with the players.
Would though do one for one, Price for Hosmer. Nothing else added
Interesting. They do need a 1B, and the Pads need a SP.
You can get Abreu for $14 MM annually or Chavis can fill that role at 1st and Holt can be resigned to play 2nd. You can trade JBJ for a RP or SP.
That would be horrible for Boston. His net is far far less valuable and Boston needs starters.
Who will take Bogaerts and Price together exactly?
#2 is unrealistic.
He’s not saying they have to be traded together
Its okay guys, this Padres fan is a troll, he/she has a equally dumb comment on another post.
Did would be a downgrade for a boston team that has a complete player in Bogey that is on what appears to be a team friendly contract for the foreseeable future.
There’s no dire need to save payroll, but, id see trading JD who can opt out again next year anyways before trading Bogey.
Up until his last 5 starts, clearly working through injury, Price was carrying a 3.16 era. I think it’s worth seeing why he brings when healthy.
Kick the tires on mookie offers. Do the same for JD. Maybe even JBJ to a lesser degree.
Ride out price unless you’re getting a servicable piece back, not adding talent, and paying down 5m or less per year.
@AtlSoxFan
“There’s no dire need to save payroll”
That directly contradicts what ownership is saying. That’s why the commenter is suggesting trading Bogaerts and signing Didi, a significant swing in $.
Actually it doesnt.
Ownership stated it was a goal, but not a mandate, to reduce payroll to reset the CBT.
Key words – not a mandate. That means explore, work on it, but don’t fire sale and only do things that keep the team competitive and make sense
And keeps fannies in the seats, eyeballs on NESN and ears on the EEI network. As packed as Fenway is today, there were many seats available in the early 80s and an empty stadium in 66. Yes, years ago but nothing should ever be taken for granted.
@AtlSoxFan
Not a mandate does not mean they don’t have to cut the payroll at all, which is what you are suggesting by rejecting every cost cutting idea on this comment board. What it means is that $208 itself is not a hard and fast limit. The clear implication is that they do however want to cut payroll significantly.
deweybelongsinthehall
With the number of seats in Fenway and the size of Red Sox nation, Boston is a long way from not producing revenues comparable to today. And I think ownership and management know that. Fans may scream bloody murder, but they are still going to show. Just like they did when the team finished last.
@Mo4ever –
Actually I haven’t rejected every cost cutting measure. Just the ones that hurt the sox both short and long term.
I champion the idea of jettisoning JD for whatever you can get, ideally the equivalent of a 4th round draft pick. He’s the one component that is clearly not a part of the long term past this year as you know 1) no additional extension is in the works, it’s what JD and Boras were probably trying to leverage in those meetings before the opt out deadline. 2) his bat is easiest to replace a portion of at a fraction of the cost – offense was a luxury, the sox need pithing more.
But the one thing the team shouldn’t do is trade one of the best SS in the game who is on a team friendly contract, or the budding star in devers just for one season of salary relief.
I’m all for trading mookie, as long as it if for someone yoing, cheap, and controllable, or if it is for some package of prospects.
Taking back underperforming high priced assets for Mookie makes no sense what-so-ever as you just hamper future years with something you don’t want or need.
I was in college from 1961-1964 in the Boston area. There was a good size group of young Sox fans and a many of us would go there regularly, sit in great seats for next to nothing, and then came 1967 and everything changed forever.
@Altsoxfan
Not only does Martinez have a no trade clause but there is zero market for a bat only player on an expensive deal. Hence the reason he chose not to opt out.
Why would anyone trade for him when Castellanos, Encarnacion, etc can be had for only money
Depends on what the return for Bogaerts is in young players before any thought of comparing him to potential replacements
Who will take Bogaerts and Price together exactly?
#2 is unrealistic.
why wouldn’t a team take Bogaerts and Price together? If you kind of want Price but are having a hard time stomaching the $ — then getting Bogaerts as part of the deal to sweeten things up seems like a no brainer for the acquiring team. I really hope the Sox don’t trade Boggy but I most certainly don’t see the logic is saying “who would take both?” ANY team considering Price would LOVE it if he came packaged with young, team-oriented (borderline superstar SS)
To actually get the payroll below the tax threshold you have to make at least 2 of the above options come to fruition. Especially if you’re including the JBJ one — I think it’s highly likely they trade Bradley but that only clears $11M — they need to clear closer to $40 if they want to dip below the luxury tax penalties.
Red Sox and Oakland match up perfectly for a Betts deal. They have really good intriguing prospects at every position at almost every level, including guys like Barreto and Mateo, who have to make the opening day 25 man or be traded/DFA’d. Boston has plenty of openings at 2B and on bench for MI who can play OF too. Montas, Barreto and Mateo for Betts work?
But would Oakland be willing to deal “a noteworthy combination of big league-ready young talent and prospects”, as MLBTR suggests would be required to get Betts for one year.
Betts definitely allows them to have an easier time beating the Astros out for the West title next year.
I get your point, but does Oakland have the kind of ownership that will pay dearly for a high stakes win now gambit?
Not without a new stadium deal. Only way they try for Betts is if they believe they can flip him for more or better matching players.
That’s where I think he’s going to end up. They can take on the money for just one year. and don’t have much in the way of other organizational needs that need to be filled, so they can blow most of their off-season capital on one player.
A lot of people on here are delusional when it comes to what they think 1 year of Betts is worth.
The Sox can ask for whatever they want in return, no one is paying that price. The Tigers made the same mistake with Boyd this year.
The Nationals have been paying tax on their payroll and they don’t have a TV contract.
Rusney’s $$ do NOT count towards the Lux Tax. That alone puts Roster resouce number more than 14MM too high.
My bet is Betts isn’t going anywhere. No one is going to pay the asking price for one year of Betts and the Red Soxs won’t take less.
I think you’re right. It all depends on how badly ownership wants to get down to/near $208MM. It’s a game of chicken…
Mookie Betts will be traded. What they ask for and what they get is two different things.
If they keep mookie and everybody else on the team they should have not fired Dave Dombrowski. This new guy was brought in for a reason. Tampa Bay Ray’s payroll expertise.
The Sox will contend if Sale/Price/ Eovaldi return to form. Otherwise they will trade Betts, JD and Bradley in July and get under the tax line.
Because of his Bat, Bradley must be traded this winter. Nobody’s going for a Jackie Bradley jr. At the deadline.
The other two guys are excellent deadline candidates.
Unless you are saying that we can see if those pitchers are returning to form during spring training…
JDM is going nowhere.
Why would anyone trade for JBJ now but not in July? And yes , I am saying they will not trade low on anyone. They will see if Price /Sale/Eovaldi make them contenders and if the are in it they will go over the cap to compete.
Nobody will want Jackie Bradley jr. At the deadline because he hits .220. He’ll be making 11 million dollars. For a defensive guy at the deadline teams go for cheap Speedy defensive outfielders. I don’t think he’ll be movable at the deadline for those reasons.
Totally agree Gary. Also, no one is trading for JDM.
Dylan Cease + minor for Mookie Betts and $14MM
Why would Chicago do that? To get to 82 wins?
Let’s just say that Mookie is Tim Anderson’s favorite player. 😉
Trade Bradley JR, move Betts to CF.
Trade Christian Vazquez. That cuts payroll over $21 mil. They could find a partner for Rodriguez, but then they’d have a huge hole in the rotation. That would get them under the luxury tax max. They could get some decent prospects for those guys.
ERod is an interesting case. He finally bloomed but he’s still a question mark on being able to stay healthy and continue to raise his game. If he has another big time year, he’ll quickly get very expensive. Despite the above, he should bring back a haul if put on the market.
I like it. Outside of the box thinking. Don’t be surprised if Bloom does things besides the obvious.
As a White Sox fan, I still appreciate Moncada and Kopech for Sale!
Kopech hasn’t done anything yet and it would be great if he is healthy and shows his stuff. Trades that are win-win are best for the sport and Sale has his ring and Boston is more than happy with Devers.
Do they have to cut payroll? Nope.
This would be a first for Henry team in Boston. Which I don’t think will happen.
So you’re saying ownership is bluffing when ownership says it wants to get down near $208MM.
Until it happens, Red Sox FO have said there is no mandate to slash payroll.
They said there is no mandate to get below $208. They definitely want to get significantly closer to it. There’s a $30MM discrepancy. Sox fans are delusional if they think ownership does not want to get at least $20MM of that. Unless ownership is completely nuts for opening their mouths in the first place. That would be ludicrous. What would be the point?
So you’re saying they are going to be the Evil Empire once again and top all payrolls in 2020. Got it.
The reason they mentioned $208 at all is to reset the lux tax rate. If they only cut a couple million, as you suggest, that goal, which they have, and for good reason, goes out the window. Not a terribly credible premise.
Way to cut payroll: jettison LaRussa to start.
1st – THIS IS AN EXCELLENT ARTICLE.
2nd – I see the 2020 Red Sox going “over” the $208 MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold. Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy somewhat walked that back by stating that avoiding the luxury tax was a “goal but not a mandate.” I agree.
3rd – I don’t see Mookie Betts being traded this winter of next year before the trade deadline, barring an offer they can’t refuse. I see the Red Sox making a major effort to put a deal together on Mookie after they issue him a QO at the end of next season.
4th – I see JBJ being traded. Preferably for a reliever or SP.
5th – I see Boston picking up Abreu from the CWS. If they don’t get Abreu they bring back Moreland.
6th – I see Boston re-signing Holt.
7th – I see the Red Sox and Bloom looking to add bargain players whenever they can from this point forward especially adding to their bullpen as Bloom did in Tampa with more bullpen games for Boston in 2020 than you saw in 2019.
8th – I see JDM opting out after 2020 and Boston issues him a QO unless the Red Sox are out of it at the 2020 trade deadline in which case they will deal JDM at the deadline.
9th – I see the Red Sox and Bloom getting the team below the CBT $208 MM in 2021 or 2022 at the latest through attrition and acquiring less expensive quality talent.
Better have kept that piece of paper with Moreland’s # on it.
So. because they said the $208 was a goal not a mandate you’re basically saying they walked it back entirely and plan to be the Evil Empire and top all payrolls again in 2020. Got it.
Why are they the EVIL EMPIRE for spending money?
Any of the remaining 29 teams can outspend Boston if they want?
Aren’t the players that want that money also the EVIL EMPIRE?
Isn’t the UNION and the Union Contract culpable here too?
Boston was over the CBT the past 2 years and ownership said getting below the CBT in 2020 was a “goal and not a mandate”.
All that I read into that statement is that Boston will not let their payroll force them to become a losing team nor require them to “dump” talented players and they hired Chaim Bloom because they recognized Tampa had a better record in 2019 than Boston for 25% of Boston’s payroll and they want to see more value acquisitions going forward.
If you’re in business wouldn’t you want to win and keep your costs contained in doing so?
And not overspend relative to your competitors?
They always called the NYY the Evil Empire because they “bought” WS, just as Boston “bought” the WS in 2018. Pot meet kettle…
Wrong… all Key players home grown or traded for with home grown prospects.(other than Price)
JDM says hi
Correct, he missed one so that is 2 out of 25. The point is still correct.
SG — using your topics:
1. Good not excellent. The big error is including 14MM for Rusney when he does NOT count towards the Lux Tax.
2 &3 I agree with you mostly but would add that they can trade Betts/Bradley & JD in July if Sale/Price/ Eovaldi don’t turn it around and make them contenders.
4. No trade of JBJ until July.
5,6 &7 : I agree they will fill out roster with bargain players.
8.JD will be gone by July unless the Sox are in it.
9. The CBT is $210 MM in 2021 and then expires. There will be a new CBA in 2022.
We essentially agree jim1950.
We’re just expressing some ideas on the details of how this may play out.
For example JDM not opting out in 2020.
For example not knowing if the Red Sox will be in it at the 2020 trade deadline.
For example not knowing how Sale, Price and Eovaldi’s health will be in 2020.
Bloom as to stay flexible and play the cards he’s dealt and get the deals that are a better option than what he has currently, if he can find them.
If not then the good thing about Boston is they can exceed the $208 MM CBT if they want to to stay competitive.
JDM is not opting out next year and Boston are not stupid enough to get Abreu. Moreland is a goner.
Getting Abreu is “stupid”?
Are you serious?
He has stats similar to JDM, is the same age as JDM and can field.
JDM is getting $62 MM the next 3 years.
Abreu is projected to get $28 MM the next 2 years.
The Red Sox need a 1st baseman.
Abreu is an All Star still in his prime.
Imagine the 2020 Red Sox starting lineup with Abreu.
Betts, Bogarts, JDM, Devers, Abreu, Benintendi, Chavis, Holt, Vasquez.
Abreu is saddled with a QO meaning he costs the red sox 2 picks plus intl bonus money.
For all that you get a 33yr old on a multi year contract when you’re trying to reduce costs.
I’d rather bring back moreland on a 1 yr deal, or test chavis/dalbec there. If you can’t ditch JD this offseason give him reps there.
Who is Rusney Castillo and why does he make 13.5 mill?
Rusney was a Cuban defector who got a big long term contract. In 2014 or 2015 to get under the Lux Tax he was optioned off of the 40 man roster. (that rule has now been changed but as long as the Sox don’t call him up he doesn’t count towards the tax) He has shown enough at AAA to get a call up if it wasn’t for the Lux Tax issue. Roster Resource actually shows him at more than 14MM but it really doesn’t matter.
Everyone in Boston has been asking who Rusney Castillo is as well for many many years now.
Just chalk it up to a giant F-UP in the past.
LOL
The Red Sox will look to trade Mookie but they won’t give him away. I’m guessing the Red Sox will be content starting the season with Mookie and seeing how things go. They can always trade him at the deadline for a team that may really need as the last piece. If the pitching comes back strong next year they compete for the division and the playoffs.
The only way I see the Red Sox trading Mookie in the offseason is on their terms to someone who is willing to pay the piper in prospects and/or young major league talent.
Maybe a standard spring training for the starting pitchers will help get them on track?
Let’s hope so there is still a lot of talent there.
“pay the piper” can mean a lot of things. Ever see a house sit on the market for a year or two? The price can mean the difference between doing a deal and not. When a house doesn’t sell it means it’s really not on the market. All depends on how strongly Henry wants to reset the luxury tax. He just said, basically, that it doesn’t have to be this year. But there’s a big difference between this year, next year or never, as some are suggesting he’s now said with his “goal not mandate” clarification.
Yes but you own a house “until you sell it”.
You only own a player until his contract expires.
Big difference.
Would agree except the offseason return for a player of Betts caliber would be better than if they traded him at the deadline as that “final piece” simply because you are basically renting him for 2 months as compared to an entire season.
Tough call about him but if the Sox do “see how things go” in the first 4 months of the season, and decide they’re out of it and decide to trade him, they’ll undoubtedly see the return be markedly reduced and a difficult sell to fans.
I’m not sure what the return would be for Betts this offseason. He is going to cost 28 million might be tough to pry the kind of talent you would want for him.
It would be a gamble to hold him until the trade deadline. The first thing it does is see how the Sox play they have the talent to win it all if things go well for the pitching staff. The second thing it does set is the Red Sox up with the by far the biggest difference maker at the trade deadline if the pitching does not perform. I don’t buy that they will get much less at the deadline. A team gets a key injury to an outfielder and might overpay. Either way I’m not trading Betts unless I am overwhelmed in the offseason.
Cubs gave up Torres for a few months of Chapman to win a championship. Chapman probably threw less than 40 innings for him. Mookie for 2 months and the playoffs is far more valuable than Chapman so you just need to find a team with top talent that wants to go for it in 2020.
Yeah, but then you pay $14MM for a guy you then trade away for less than above proposition.
I think it makes more sense to keep Mookie if and until the Red Sox may be out of it and trade him at the trade deadline.
1 – The acquiring team will only have to pay $9 MM in payroll to Mookie for roughly 1/3 of the season. That will also help Boston get below the CBT penalty by saving $9 MM.
2 – The acquiring team will be “in” the race and will be more desperate to win it all and more likely to give up something of value.
3 – That acquiring team will not be able to offer Mookie a QO so there is nothing to prevent Boston frm trying to get him back again in the 2020 – 2021 offseason.
JBJ for Jose Urena and Magneuris Sierra. Who says no? Boston gets rid of roughly $5 million off their book and get a solid No 5 starter in Urena and Sierra is a nice potential 4th outfielder with some speed.
As a braves fan, I can’t relate to this kid of spending on a roster and I sorta envy it.
If Manfred is going to make another change, since rosters are at 26, all that is going to do is encourage 15/16 man pitching staffs. Limit it to 13 (I would say 12 but the Union would get mad). Any pitcher that isn’t 10th best on a team or better, if he’s in the game, you’re thinking about beating traffic. It would keep the Opener mess out of baseball and balance out the too-frequent strikeouts/home runs. Only 19 Qualifiers could be bothered to hit .300?
Also dump JBJ and can someone define what an up season from Benintendi looks like if last year was a down season? That’s exactly who he’s been since he got to the bigs. Hit .330, hit 30 dingers, be an above average glove in CF. If he does 1 of the 3, he can stay. If not, get rid of him too. What’s his appeal to Boston other than he looked like Mark Wahlberg before his most recent haircut? Hit or gtfo.
Anyone with any baseball acumen outside of Boston can see this organization is in real trouble their farm system is now bare and they have way too many albatross contracts that are just in movable. That on top of their desire to get under the luxury tax means whether Boston fans want to admit this or not they are going to have to experience a full-blown rebuild.
Their farm system is all over the field and most havent hit their prime yet. They need to shed about $20M if they truly want to get under the bottom luxury tax number. They only need to cover 1B, 2B, a 5th starter and upgrade a spot or two in the pen. While their farm isnt deep they have Chavis who had a decent start to his career last year at 1b and 2B, 2B can be covered by Marco Hernandez, Chavis or maybe Chatham who has hit .300 at every level of the minors so far. Their top two prospects are a 19 yr old 1B-3B who did well in his first pro year and Dalbec who also plays the same position and hit 59 HRs the last 2 years. Darwinzon Hernandez contributed at the MLB level and seems slotted to be a power lefty out of the pen though I hope he gets to try to start again. Houck pitched well at AAA and in AFL.They got a top college arm in Song last year. Thry are all prospects so who knows but the Sox adent a mess at all if their rotation does spring training this year and shows up.
Probably going to catch crap for this comment but I do think a Wil Myers for David Price swap could be mutually beneficial if the Padres threw in a minor league arm to help re-stock Boston’s farm.
Myers is obviously very overpaid and has a lot left on his deal, but his AAV on the luxury tax is only about $14M since his deal was backloaded, so he’ll help stay under the threshold compared to Price. He also played his best season at 1B so could slot in there and possibly recoup a little value.
SD gets him out of their OF and gets a serviceable (although also overpriced) SP back, plus gets value for a prospect that would be otherwise hard for them to to keep since they have a 40 man roster crunch currently.
I’d rather do Wil Myers for Chris Sale. 5 more years of uncertainty… only 3 for price.
Myers for Sale ??? What R U smoking ???
Sox need to hit the reset button (if they can) and take notes from the Yankees a couple years back. Keep E-Rod, Devers, Bogaerts, Chavis, Benny, Vasquez, and maybe even JBJ as your core, and trade everyone else for mid-high level prospects and veterans for have 1-2 years on contracts.
If Red Sox don’t, they could wind up looking like the Orioles 2 years ago. White Sox put a good package together for Machado as a rental, hope to stay. What did O’s do? Try and keep Machado happy by holding him at SS. What did Machado do? Leave, play 3B and not give a darn. O’s got nothing.
The Yankees model is a few years behind the Red Sox model. Sox built an almost entirely homegrown offense and built around it with trades and a few free agents. Sox talent got up first and hit arbitration first and delivered a championship first. Yanks are just hitting the point where arbitration will drive up payroll like it has for Boston.
You are correct sir most people forget that the Red Sox offense was nearly all home grown.
Boston has one of the richest owners in the business.
That means Boston can step on the gas and spend money any time it wants.
There will be no rebuild in Boston just a reduction in costs over time with no loss in contention.
Just a more effective way of winning for much less money.
What this is all about is Tampa and Chaim Bloom won more games in 2019 than Boston for about 25% of the payroll.
If I were the owner I’d demand more for my money too.
That’s what this is all about.
The fans in Boston the the Red Sox owner “demand” a winner.
Without getting ripped off.
Jackie Bradley Jr. might be a non-tender candidate.
Having a desire for younger controllable players isn’t being cheap, it’s being smart.
I would think that Barnes is more of a non tender candidate than Leon because A. Barnes is making $3m compared to Leon’s $2.8M and B. Barnes is absolute garbage and deserves to be booted while at least Leon contributes on defense and game calling
Leon stinks