It has long been evident that this year’s free agent market would include some notably youthful corner outfielders. Our just-released top 50 list reveals MLBTR’s collective thinking on the subject, though we certainly discussed a wide range of possibilities with respect to each of these players. And there’s often good reason to prefer a lower-cost investment, even if it comes with less upside or greater risk.
As it turned out, Nicholas Castellanos took the highest spot on the board after a monster run down the stretch with the Cubs. I’m personally a bit less bullish than our prediction indicates. While Castellanos is accomplished and still youthful, I’m not sure there’s enough bat to carry his still-rough glove in a market environment that has not treated less-than-elite hitters kindly. But perhaps it’s best to put more money down if it means getting the most offensive bang available in this player group.
Of course, you might take issue with my personal preference for the market position of Marcell Ozuna. He has been outperformed at the plate by Castellanos, though Ozuna’s Statcast numbers have jumped off the page. Ozuna is a better defender but is hardly perfect in that area. He’ll also be dragging a qualifying offer onto the open market.
There’s a case to be made that there’s much more potential value to be had in Avisail Garcia, who is just as young as those players and just turned in a strong season. He still has a highly appealing toolset — including excellent speed, if you can believe it — and might yet have some ceiling. Perhaps he’s an under-the-radar target that some teams will be eyeing.
Are we missing anyone in this group? Oh, right, Yasiel Puig. He scuffled early last year but was a useful player on the field. He has at times been an excellent performer and still seems to have the ability to provide ample production. There may be some headaches, but Puig is also undeniably a charismatic presence that might just help jolt a quiet franchise. He seemed to get along well enough with the Reds and Indians; there were fireworks during 2019, but they weren’t directed at other members of his organizations.
Regardless of which player turned in the best 2019 showing or possesses the most pure talent, it’s possible to imagine any of these four pacing the group in 2020 and beyond. Who do you think offers the most intriguing opportunity on this winter’s market?
(Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)
DarkSide830
incredible how much people sleep on Avi. another great year last year and still 28, and perhaps can be had at a more reasonable price. whoever gets him will make out the best.
imgman09
Agreed!
macstruts
I’m not really sure what you mean by another great year. He’s had one really good year and last year his WAR was 2, which is the bare minimum of what you want to give someone 500 ABs.
jbigz12
“great” is a massive stretch. He had one great season fueled by a completely unsustainable BABIP. He’s generally a poor defender and doesn’t walk all that much. There’s a reason he’ll most likely be getting the smallest deal
kc38
Generally poor but on the Rays his defense was above average no doubt and had a plus. Value wise, straight best for your dollar Garcia is the way to go
jbigz12
I’d imagine Puig or Garcia will end up being the best value of the group. But not necessarily the best performer. Castellanos should get paid pretty well by an AL team so he can DH at least half of the time. He’s the best hitter of the group but he’s certainly the worst with the glove. Considering his second half outburst he definitely won’t be the best value.
Ozuna has all the tools to be extremely good like he was in 2017. But he certainly hasn’t reached that level the last 2 seasons. Puig would be my bet on the best value overall. But that assumes you keep him in check and get him to tap back into his borderline elite skill set. It’s a massive gamble that any team will be able to do that so he or Garcia should be the low man here in earnings.
spudchukar
Ozuna.. all the tools? Have you seen him throw?
its_happening
Ozuna can’t field. That’s a tool he is missing. He is a gold glover who won on his bat. Those who watch him should know he is a defensive liability.
jbigz12
Offensively he definitely does. He’s a passable left fielder. You certainly don’t need an absolute gold glover out there.
thatdude07
hes a passable left fielder? Are you sure we are watching the same dude out there?
jbigz12
Yeah. I didn’t say he was a great defensive outfielder. His arm has not been very good in STL. Whether that’s due to his shoulder injury or not I’m not sure. The arm is the real problem. But again it’s LF. You typically aren’t asking your LF to be a defensive Savant. Outside of Puig I don’t think anyone of these guys is a plus defensive OF anyway.
I probably shouldn’t have said all the tools in my first post. I didn’t really mean that to come off as a glowing review of his defense. I was just merely pointing out the recent very high level performance. And you know Statcast liked his hitting performance a good deal better than the final numbers showed last season.
maximumvelocity
The only reason to take a chance on Garcia is if you believe he is still on the ascension after a disastrous start to his career.
His defense is now passable, and he rates as average now, but there is no reason he should only be hitting 20 home runs.
Frankly, unless you are rebuilding and have a spot and money to burn, that’s a fools’s gamble. He’s just a guy who will never reach his potential most likely.
thatdude07
Whoever gives Ozuna a long term deal will regret it.
imgman09
Agreed!
moody
Cardinals are in negotiations with Ozuna. Yikes…
J. C. Hahne
Kole Calhoun
Steven Chinwood
Age
macstruts
There is no reason to give Calhoun more than a couple of years. Other than Ozuna, and Castellanous, there is no reason to give any of these players more than a couple of years.
Calhoun’s WAR last year was 2.3. Garcia’s was 2. Puig 1.3. If you are looking for a RF, wait around and take the cheep one, which means the As and Rays will get the best deal. .
nemolee.exe
Psssst. Cubs. Forget Castellanos. Get Ozuna.
thinkblech
Ranking by best anagram:
A Classical Neon Sloth
Gaily Pie Us
Caviar Ilia Gas
Columnar Zeal
hoosierhysteria
U are a dope
ChiSoxCity
Puig is the only 5-tool player on this list.
Steven Chinwood
And the only one with a 5 cent head.
thatdude07
is that why hes been passed around like a blunt?
jekporkins
You’re partly right. Puig is a tool.
keysox
Cuba connection – Puig to White Sox. 1/8m. No more
its_happening
6-tool actually.
ChiSoxCity
Yeah, Puig is immature, but 19 SBs/24 HRs don’t lie. And he’s the only real RF in the group. The right clubhouse leadership and maturation on a short term contract might keep him focused.
Anyone who says Castellanos or Ozuna are more valuable is a 1-tool player, and a dull one at that.
Rallyshirt
Maybe Anderson and Jimenez work with Puig, so Abreu can stick with Moncada and Robert? If we get a good price, no problem keeping Yolmer because someone needs to mentor up Lil Nick.
omahaomaha
Yolmer has priced himself out as a utility guy with his arb figure around approx 5 mil +? Other cheaper and better options than the Gatorade man
Rallyshirt
it’s only a year though?
RicoD
I’m big on progression and momentum, which is why I would prefer Castellanos and Garcia from this list. Puig and Ozuna have had big years in the past, so you know the potential is there, but they have clearly shown regression over the past 2 years since their very good 2017 seasons.
Castellanos has shown year over year improvements offensively and defensively. Regardless of your thoughts on how good his bat is or how bad his defense is, it is trending in the right direction.
Garcia had a great bounce-back year in Tampa. As long as he is a good clubhouse guy, I can see them working out a 3 year deal to keep him there. I think there is tremendous value here as he is still very young and could be had for probably half the price as some of the others.
angelstew43
In the right situation, Kole Calhoun may out perform all four of those guys, and he certainly will defensively.
macstruts
By WAR, he outperformed all but Castellanos last year.
ayrbhoy
As long as Kole can play the Mariners each year he will do just fine- he crushes us every yr! I recall this season he was in an early bad slump until he came up into Seattle and jacked one over the RF wall. Went on a tear after that
omahaomaha
Calhoun strikes out way too much
madmc44
I like both Castellanos and Garcia for the Red Sox. How quickly could they learn the nuiance of being a 1 B. Good production and good protection in the RS batting order.
They could then afford trading Betts and JBJ.
Too many RHanded bats. Too many things to juggle.
Mystery Team
@madmc44 I’m sure Garcia would fit right in on Boston’s IL just as well as he has every where else.
stubby66
Calhoun and Garcia just sounds like they could flourish in Cleveland. Then if the Brewers miss out on Moose which I 100% expect to be back I’m gambling on Lonnie Chisenhall back at third for them
thatdude07
I think its a foregone conclusion that hes coming back. The moves yesterday of dumping Anderson/Thames seems like they are freeing up money to offer him a deal. brewers will pay him, plus he loves it in Mil, and we love having his bat. Grandal is going elsewhere though, which is not a bad thing in my eyes. Id be worried about giving a 4 year deal for Grandal, especially as an aging catcher. Will miss him constantly being on base, but I’d rather have a front line starter with that money
stubby66
absolutely agree but you know I think Travis D’arnaud may flourish in Milwaukee even more with him teamed up with Pina, the pitching staff could even be better
titanic struggle
Nothing against the other three, they all have their own strengths and weaknesses, but after having him in Cincinnati the first half of 2019…I want him back in a Reds uniform!”His defense was a pleasant surprise and his energy is off the charts. If he can put together those qualities and a big season with the bat he could propel the Reds to the next level.
Mystery Team
I’ll take Puig mainly as tribute to Jomboy. Garcia spends chunks of seasons on the IL not sure why he’s on this list.
ChiSoxCity
Jomboy’s the man. lol
apbadogs
Castellanos will be a pumpkin.