The Mets will extend a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer to right-hander Zack Wheeler before today’s 5pm ET deadline, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen announced at today’s press conference to introduce new manager Carlos Beltran (h/t: Joel Sherman of the New York Post, on Twitter).
That’s been the expected outcome for several months now, and Wheeler is widely expected to reject the offer in search of a more lucrative deal in free agency. If and when Wheeler does sign a new contract elsewhere, the Mets will be entitled to a compensatory pick in the 2020 draft.
Wheeler, 29, should have little trouble trouncing that $17.8MM, one-year offer in free agency. The market features a pair of clear-cut No. 1 starters in Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but Wheeler is very arguably the No. 3 free-agent arm of the winter and will likely be treated as such by several teams. As laid out recently by MLBTR’s Connor Byrne, Wheeler is the second-hardest-throwing starter on the market (trailing only Cole), and no free-agent starter limited hard contact better than Wheeler in 2019. He also ranks in the top 10 among free agents in terms of highest strikeout percentage and lowest walk percentage.
While some may point to Wheeler’s 3.96 ERA in 2019 and zero in too heavily on that figure, his overall body of work over the past two seasons is largely excellent. In his past 55 Major League starts, Wheeler has pitched to a collective 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate. He’s done so while playing in front of a porous defense that ranks 29th among MLB teams with a ghastly -169 Defensive Runs Saved across the past two seasons.
Qualifying offer notwithstanding, it’d be a surprise to see Wheeler command anything less than a strong three-year deal, and even that’s a rather cautious and conservative outlook. The demand for pitching among contenders will be strong, and Wheeler is trending up at a time when the trade market offers virtually nothing in terms of top-tier arms. For clubs looking to add a starter with front-of-the-rotation upside but unwilling to approach the $30MM+ annual salaries that Cole and Strasburg will likely command, Wheeler and lefty Madison Bumgarner are the next-best options.
I can’t really see Wheeler getting a better contract honestly. He only had like one great year in the past few years.
If Jordan Zimmerman can get over 100 mil and homer bailey can get over 50 I sure hope wheelers agent can get him something better than the qualifying offer
Those mistakes are a reason why a guy like Wheeler may not get something worth turning down the QO.
Exactly MFB
on a yearly value, he won’t likely do better but he could get more security with a 3 or 4 year deal.
hindsight is 20/20 here. in the case of Zimmerman for example, that was about the worst case scenario outcome.
Wheeler is matching Eovaldi at minimum
Wheeler won’t get close to $100M but he’ll get much more than $17.8M….as long as he doesn’t pull a Keuchel and start with an outrageous contract demand.
Agreed, free agent pitching is outlier, you never know what you are going to get. I put the pecking order at Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, Mad Bum, Keuchel and Odorizzi. He should get 4/70 range.
So you thing Bumgarner will get less than $70m… wow.
Hes a backend starter
Who’s been more hyped, Wheeler or Matt Boyd?
Mad Bum might get more money, but he hasn’t been as good lately.
He hasn’t had one “great” year ever. He’s average at best and should take that QO. I can’t imagine a team giving him more than that along with coughing up a valuable draft pick as well.
I agree, it’s hard to see teams gushing at going over 60M, and having to give up a 2 & 5. With that said it seems ridiculous to care about a 5 when you’re talking about that slot generally being a low ceiling college RP. Like come on what are we talking about? He had a really good year in 18 with a filthy arsenal. He’ll easily surpass the QO, not AAV wise, in terms of total money. He will undoubtedly decline the QO.
I think he’ll get a four or five year deal for close to that AAV.
The last two years he’s been very good.
Funny timing, since Beltran was traded for Wheeler
Ha, essentially Wheeler and Manager to be named later.
Lol
aaaand now he won’t be signed until June. He’d be smart to take the QO.
This may be a Craig Kimbrel situation all over again.
Lol
He will probably accept the qo
He’ll get more overall money but it will be spread out over several years.
Billy Eppler’s fascination with the radar gun and disregard for injury history plays in his favor.
380 innings the last two years. 3.65 ERA. FIP of 3.37. 3.5 to 1 K to BB ratio.
I don’t expect the Angels to get Cole or Strasburg, The Angels should consider themselves lucky to end up with Wheeler.
Why?
Why wont they get Cole or Strasburg, or why they should consider themselves lucky to get Wheeler?
Boras is the agent of Cole and Strasburg and Boras negotiation style is to draw out negotiations. Moreno does work that way. Moreno has not waited until February to sign a coveted free agent. He’s not going to be the one left without a chair.
They are lucky to get Wheeler because he’s the 3rd best pitcher on the market. Unless you consider MadBum the 3rd best pitcher on the market. Anyway, if the Angels end up with the 3rd best and someone else, Being an Angel fan, I will consider that lucky.
I’d actually prefer to get multiple quality arms and signing Wheeler or Bumgarner would probably allow that to happen.
And I think that’s what they will do. However, if Boras wasn’t Cole’s agent, I think there would be a great chance Cole would have ended up in Anaheim. He might anyway.
FWIW, I believe Mickey is joining Joe Maddon’s staff as the pitching coach, so it is a possibility.
Money talks, the Angels and all the teams in the West are appealing. Most have the money to spend and have the perfect climate.
If he and his agent aren’t sure if he can draw at least a 4 yr/$50m contract, then he probably needs to take the QO.
If any team could get Wheeler at 4yr/$50m that is a major steal. He should have no trouble finding a contract at 5yr/$85m.
If he can get 5/$85m, he’s fortunate considering his injury history and the fact that he’s not anything more than a #3 in a market when only a few teams would be willing to commit that much money and 5 years to a pitcher with his resume.
Me personally, I’d only commit 4/$60m on him (with the 4th year being a mutual option or based on incentives). If there’s a 5th year, it’d be based solely on incentives.
I’m sorry, but that was a terribly written original piece. It was actually difficult to understand.
Anyway, it’s a shame that Wheeler will most likely chase riches over loyalty. After all, the Mets did stick with him, help him rehab and give him the the time and guidance to reestablish himself. Two years of basically zero production and he walks at first chance. If I were the Mets, I would really look forward to playing against him in the event that he signs elsewhere.
Are you from the future? I missed where he left the mets and turned down their offer. Speaking of terribly written posts…….
The Mets also got 4 WAR, about $28 million worth of production, out of him this year while paying him about $5 million. They more than got their investment back.
Think they’ll be loyal enough to give him some cash for his extra production? Or are players the only ones who should be loyal?
Ohhh yeah the Mets are one loyal organization? Blahahahaha
Why would he stay, he sees that even the best pitcher in baseball can’t win with them., and then there is the New York media.
Scherzer is on the Mets?
/s
As a Phil’s fan you obviously don’t know anything about good pitching. Yes, degrom is the currently the best pitcher in baseball, whereas scherzer was the best pitcher.
#1, it’s a business. #2, if it was about loyalty, you could argue just as strongly that he’d want to go to his hometown Atlanta Braves. Mike Trout is Mr. Philadelphia, but he signed a long term extension with the Halos.
Wheeler has command issues at times even though he has great stuff. He’s not a lock to be a valuable sign.
What were the Giants thinking not trading him at the deadline?
Giants really not even gonna get a second-round compensation out of Bumgarner and Smith lmaooo
I see this going into next season before he gets signed. The draft pick tied to him will hurt. Unless hes smart enough to take what he can get.
Take the QO, have a strong 2020 season and receive a better 4-year deal than what could be expected on a 5-year pact. If the Mets falter he might be traded to a contender, have a big October and really cash in.
I can see him getting $100M+ after teams miss out on Cole/Strasburg and get desperate.
What is a fair contract for Wheeler?
I always thought 3/$45mil was fair for someone like him.
I’d have him closer to double that $45MM total (albeit over a 4-5 year term as opposed to three).
In one of your chats, not sure who it was, the MLBTR writer said 4/64 was the projection.
i honesty wouldn’t be surpised if he accepts. could be Keuchel 2.0, but with less hardware and a more serious injury in his past.
Keuchel was a soft-tossing lefty who turned 31 prior to Opening Day with declining performance.
Wheeler won’t turn 30 until next summer, averages nearly 97 mph and has seen his stock rise in the past two seasons. I don’t think most people give him enough credit for how well he’s pitched or for how popular he’s going to be in free agency. I’d be absolutely stunned if he accepted.
I’d be shocked if he accepts.
Wheeler would be insane if he excepts 29 years old can throw in excess of 97 miles an hour with the right coaching staff can turn him into a front line starter
Buyer beware signing.
I think Houston needs to go after wheeler and see what they can turn him into and it would be smart for wheeler to take what they want to give him cause he has seen what Houston can do with pitchers
What a huge drop off from the top 2 FA starters in dollars spent. Cole at 7 years and $30+ million AAV and Strasburg at 5-6 years and in the mid to high 20s and then Wheeler and Bumgarner in the 4 years and $15-17 million area. A team looking for a starter can get Wheeler or MadBum for less than half the overall dollars.
Notable drop-off, to be sure, but I think you’re underselling Strasburg and Wheeler in terms of their earning power.
This seems like it could be a nice win-win if he accepts the QO. The Mets would be paying market value for a good pitcher and he’d escape this loaded starting pitching market and be without the QO holding him down next year.
Wheeler is underrated. Look at virtually every advanced metric not to mention he’s got Ace Caliber stuff. Put him in front of a quality Defense with a decent framer / thrower and tinker with his repertoire… he could replicate or improve his 4.7 2019 fWar (4.2 fWar in 2018).
Wheeler might not get $20M+ per yr but he’s assuredly getting $50M+ Guaranteed. After the Cole / Strasburg chase, he’s the best available starter. If Cole is going to cost $245-300M, Wheeler is a bargain if a team believes it can maximize his physical talent.
4 Yrs $80M is what I’d project.
Look at what elder statesmen JA Happ got last offseason. 2 Yrs $34M with a vesting option. Or Charlie Morton 2 Yrs $30M and Vesting Option. Both entering age 35+ seasons. Wheeler is entering age 30.
I can’t see Wheeler getting a $100 million contract but maybe something like 5 years and $80 million.
Agreed. That seems to make more sense. Wheeler has never been an All-Star, never close to being an All-Star and has underachieved based on the stuff he has. A team will take a shot on him reaching his full potential but at $100-mil for 5 for an unaccomplished power arm seems too high.
WereAllJustGuestsHere
Please don’t take this the wrong way, but when you avoid the name calling, I actually like your takes.
I would actually think he’s going to have an AAV somewhere in the range of his qualifying offer for either four or five years.
Just means after he declines it Mets will get a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.
Wheeler is a good pitcher and could probably get a five-year deal in the $90 million range. If I was Zack I would jump off the titanic as fast as possible. This team is going nowhere fast and they have a history of not being very good at treating their players healthwise. They have destroyed more careers than they have built.
You mean the Titanic with Alonso, McNeil, Conforto and deGrom who are all signed for the near future?
Hey be nice, he doesn’t watch the team. He just reads comments on this site and MLB Memes comments on Facebook.
He doesn’t know anything.
I think he’s referring to the team history and the team’s constant showing of incompetence from top to bottom despite being in the largest sports market.
This is the cat I want my Braves to go get. Hometown boy. Go get him.
What about Ryu?
4/75. Option for a 5th maybe.
He is an underrated pitcher. Any team would be happy And lucky to have him. NL teams get a good hitting pitcher too and he is a good fielder at his position. A very solid upper/mid rotation pitcher.
How can a pitcher on the most overrated pitching staff in MLB be an “underrated pitcher”?
How can you be a marlins fan?
I think the Mets best move is to make a strong push for Bumgarner over Wheeler, especially if the price is right. If injury risk knocks down his asking price and years, even better. He’s arguably the greatest postseason pitcher of all time, and he is coming off of another 200 inning season, which shows he may be healthy again. Having deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman, AND Bumgarner in the post-season can lessen the need to rely on the bullpen in the playoffs, while increasing our chances of getting there in the first place.
It’s amazing that your pitching staff is so hyped up by the NY media, the Mets PR machine, and you Mets fans, but you all know that you need a guy like Bumgarner in order to do anything.
MarlinsFanBase or is it MarlinswithoutaFanBase spends most of his time worrying about the Mets well because he doesn’t have a team. Well, a real team anyway.
In 2019 the Mets had the third most quality starts in the majors behind only Houston and Washington, so…
This feels like Eovaldi redux. Like Eovaldi, he’s always had good stuff, but has never been a great pitcher. And has probably been on the injury list as much as he’s been on mound.
Turning down the QO is a slam dunk. My guess is $70M/4, but I’m not sure it will have a happy ending.
This is exactly what I’m thinking and probably many teams will be thinking when they negotiate.
If I were BVW, I’d make the following offer:
Option (A): 2 yrs at $22mm each, along with an option for 2 more years at $18mm each that vest if he finishes year 2 not on the DL and having made at least 45 starts; if he makes at least 50 starts, the options vest at $20mm and if he makes at least 55 starts the options vest at $22mm.
Option (B): 4 years/$75mm total.
Wheeler and Mad Bum are from Georgia, do they both go there?